2011 10-04 lithium -likes to love amsterdam v slide-share
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likes to lovesWorld Tour 2011 #L2LTour We’re Tweeting! Join
the conversation at
Likes to Loves Oct 4, 2011
Michael Wu, PhD Principal Scientist of Analytics Lithium Technologies
@mich8elwu
Amsterdam
#L2LTour
▪ Humans have been social since they were caveman
▪ Cyber-anthropology of social media: shift the focus from technology à relationship
▪ From the relational perspective, there are only 2 major types of social media • social network • community
▪ Social in the pre-digital era
social is NOT new
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#L2LTour 3
how do social networks form?
Zaanse Schans = community
Bob old members new / casual members
weak ties strong ties
A story of how Bob’s social network was built
#L2LTour
how do social networks form?
college
work
Zaanse Schans = community
Social networks form naturally within communities as people establishes relationships
Social network maintains relationships as people move between communities
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#L2LTour
what do real social network data look like?
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#L2LTour
▪ Social Network • Held together by pre-existing
interpersonal relationships between individuals
• You know everyone in your network (ego-network), people who are connected to you directly
• Each person has only one social network, despite there are many social network platforms
• Structure: Network
▪ Community • Held together by some common
interests of a large group of people
• Most people, especially new members, do not know majority of the members in the community
• Any one person may be part of many communities at any given time
• Structure: Hierarchical, overlapping & nested
communities vs. social networks (on/offline)
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#L2LTour
▪ Social Networks • Facebook, Linkedin, etc.
▪ Community • Flickr, Yelp, Wikipedia, Youtube,
Digg, etc.
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communities vs. social networks (on/offline)
#L2LTour
▪ Social networks connects people • It determines who connects to whom • But it doesn’t determine who interacts with whom
▪ A connection is required before you can have interaction • Connection gives people the potential to interact • But it is not sufficient to guarantee interaction
▪ Connection is easy to maintain, interaction is much harder • Connection: only takes 1 action, no subsequent actions are required:
Once connected, you’ll always be a connection • Interaction: requires persistent actions over time
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connection vs. interaction (engagement)
#L2LTour
▪ The potential value of a connection is huge • That is why Facebook received ~$40 billion valuation
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realizing the value of your connections
#L2LTour
▪ Potential value through influence • Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers à can potentially influence them through WOM à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated adoption
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realizing the value of your connections
#L2LTour
▪ Definition for businesses: • The ability to cause a change in thought (sentiment, opinion, etc.) OR
behavior (purchase, referral, etc.) through non-coercive and transparent means where the targets voluntarily want the changes even with no monetary compensation
▪ It matters how you produce the change • No carrot: no money (doesn’t mean no reward) • No stick: no force/coercion (doesn’t mean no punishment) • No annoyance: no spam/frustration, target has to want it • No trick: no deception/hidden agenda
what is influence?
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#L2LTour
what does influence means to your business?
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mass public
consumers
action
interest
awareness
desire
your purchase funnel engage/ empower
unaware consumers
your customers
your brand advocates
(evangelists) competitors’ customers
competitors’ brand advocates
(your brand detractors)
brand Y
brand X
brand Z
your superfans (product experts)
potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors
#L2LTour
a model for influence
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Domain Credibility: The influencer's expertise in a specific domain of knowledge.
High Bandwidth: The influencer's ability to transmit his expert knowledge through a social media channel.
Content Relevance: How closely the target's information needs coincide with the influencer's expertise.
Timing: The ability of the influencer to deliver his expert knowledge to the target at the time when the target needed it.
Channel Alignment: The amount of channel overlap between the target and the influencer.
Target Confidence: How much the target trusts the influencer with respect to his information needs
influencer
target: influencee
#L2LTour
the importance of relevance and timing
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w/in 1 month 1 month ago 3 month ago 6 month ago
PopGuy
FanGirl WizKid
Friendship
Relevant relationship
#L2LTour
▪ Potential value through influence • Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers à can potentially influence them through WOM à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated adoption
▪ Potential value through loyalty • Connection to brands à can potentially build stronger/deeper customer-brand relationship à can potentially gain value through persistent consumption of product & service
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realizing the value of your connections
#L2LTour
▪ Prof. Mark Granovetter identified 4 components of tie strength • Time: amount of time spent together • Intensity: emotional intensity and the sense of closeness • Trust: intimacy or mutual confiding (transparency) • Reciprocity: amount of reciprocal services
▪ Strong relationships requires more time & attention
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how do we quantify the strength of relationship?
#L2LTour
relationship development & maintenance
disconnected
weak tie
strong tie
2. building tie strength
3. maintaining relationship
1. creating a weak tie
do nothing
do something
bad
Easy! All it takes is
an “hello”
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#L2LTour
▪ Potential value through influence • Connection to other fans, customers, or consumers à can potentially influence them through WOM à can potentially gain value through customer acquisition & accelerated adoption
• But w/o interaction, there is no way to spread WOM
▪ Potential value through loyalty • Connection to brands à can potentially build stronger/deeper customer-brand relationship à can potentially gain value through persistent consumption of product & service
• But w/o interaction, there is no way to build any relationship
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realizing the value of your connections
#L2LTour
▪ The latent value of a connection (a fan) is the potential to interact • When people actually interact, they can realize this
value
▪ When friends (connections) don’t interact, they cannot realize their latent value • Likewise, if fans (connections to brands) don’t
interact, they also cannot realize their greatest latent value (e.g. WOM influence, loyalty, etc.)
▪ Nevertheless connections do have value, interactions simply create greater value
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realizing the value of your connections
#L2LTour
▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
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how can we drive actions and interactions?
#L2LTour
▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
• game attributes • game mechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player
journey, narratives, etc.
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how can we drive actions and interactions?
#L2LTour
▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
• game attributes • game mechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player
journey, narratives, etc. • game-like player behavior
• engagement, interaction, competition, collaboration, awareness, learning, obsession, and/or any other observed player behavior during game play
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how can we drive actions and interactions?
#L2LTour
▪ Gamification: • The use of game attributes to drive game-like player behavior in a non-game
context with predictability
• game attributes • game mechanics, game dynamics, game design principles, gaming psychology, player
journey, narratives, etc. • game-like player behavior
• engagement, interaction, competition, collaboration, awareness, learning, obsession, and/or any other observed player behavior during game play
• non-game context • work, education, health & fitness, sale & marketing, community participation, civic
engagement, volunteerism, goodwill, etc. (anything but a game)
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how can we drive actions and interactions?
#L2LTour
what’s the magic behind gamification?
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Achievement
Appointment Dynamic
Avoidance
Behavioral Contrast
Behavioral Momentum Blissful Productivity
Cascading Information
Theory
Chain Schedules
Combos
Communal Discovery
Communal Collaboration
Collection
Set Completion
Discovery
Companion Gaming
Countdown Cross Situational
Leader-boards
Leader-boards
Disincentives
Endless Games
Envy Epic Meaning
Extinction
Free Lunch
Fixed Interval Reward Schedules
Fixed Ratio Reward Schedule
Free Lunch
Fun Once, Fun Always
Interval Reinforcement
Schedules
Level Up
Lottery
Loyalty
Loss Aversion Micro Leader-boards
Modifiers Moral Hazard of Game Play
Ownership
Pride
Privacy
Progression Dynamic
Points
Quest
Rank
Reputation
Ratio Reward Schedules
Delayed Mechanics
Reinforcer
Response
Reward Schedules
Rolling Physical Goods
Shell Game
Social Fabric of Games
Status Serendipity
Urgent Optimism
Variable Interval Reward Schedules
Variable Ratio Reward Schedule
Viral Game Mechanics Virality
Virtual Items
Social Cohesion
Real-time Mechanics
Contingency
Infinite Gameplay
#L2LTour
▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM): • 3 Factors underlying human behavior. • Temporal convergence of 3 factors.
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behavior model
Motivation Ability Trigger Action
wants can told to
#L2LTour
▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM): • 3 Factors underlying human behavior. • Temporal convergence of 3 factors.
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behavior model
Action Mot
ivat
ion
Ability
Trigger
activation threshold
#L2LTour
security, money (gambling)
▪ Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs (1943)
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what motivates people
deficiency needs
being-needs (meta-needs) status, achievements,
ranks, reputation, etc.
Game mechanics/dynamics
social cohesion, virality & most communal/community dynamics
food, water, etc
#L2LTour
▪ Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs (1943)
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what motivates people
being-needs (meta-needs)
Game mechanics/dynamics
Maslow’s meta-motivators:
Dan Pink’s intrinsic motivators (2009)
D R
i V
E
autonomy
mastery
purpose
ownership, blissful productivity, serendipity, etc.
points, progression, level up, set completion, etc.
epic meaning, quest, discovery, justice, save the world, etc.
#L2LTour
▪ Flow: an optimal state of intrinsic motivation • Forget about physical feelings (e.g. hunger,
sleep), passage of time, and their ego
▪ Skill ~ Challenge à Flow
▪ Certainty vs. Uncertainty • People love the control state
• b/c it gives them a sense of security & safety • People hate the boredom state • People like arousal • People dislike worry
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Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi: Flow
#L2LTour
▪ People acquire skills over time à move into the relaxation/boredom state • We are motivated by challenges,
surprises, and varieties, to avoid boredom
• IRL, matching challenge to people’s skills exactly is hard
• They are either too easy (boring) or too hard (frustrating)
▪ Gamification must adapt & evolve with the player
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Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi: Flow
too easy
a bit too hard
way too hard shallow learning curve
steep learning curve to get back to flow
#L2LTour
▪ Fogg Behavior Model (FBM): • 3 Factors underlying human behavior. • Temporal convergence of 3 factors.
▪ The magic formula of gamification • Place the proper triggers in the behavioral trajectory of motivated players, at
the moment when they feel the greatest excess in their ability
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behavior model
Ability Trigger
wants can told to
Perceived Types of
or simplicity at the right time
Motivation
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Likes anthropology
community sociology analytics
relationship
loyalty
influence
gamification
social network
social media
psychology
motivation
connection interaction behavior model
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Likes Loves