Darrell DavisWheat Producer

Ipswich, SD

Secretary Treasurer

2010 U.S. Wheat Situation

Production & Market Highlights .

21st Annual IAOM MEA District Conference Cape Town, South Africa 22-25 November, 2010

My Farming

Operation

• Sixth generation

• Beef cow-calf ranch

• Hunting enterprise

• 2,800+ tillable hectares

Hard red spring wheat

Seeded hard red winter

first time this year

Corn and soybeans

U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison

31.2

24.5 23.9

21.8

30.0

37.9

35.236.0

23.4

26.2

31.4

31.2

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11

Millio

n H

ecta

res

Wheat Corn Soybeans

U.S. Wheat Area and Production

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10

MT/

hec

tare

s

Pro

duct

ion

(MM

T) a

nd

Har

vest

ed A

rea

(mh

)

Harvested Area Production Yield

60.5

MMT

U.S. Wheat Supply & DemandJune, 2010

U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand July, 2010

U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand August, 2010

U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand October, 2010

Source: USDA FAS export sales report 5 November 2010

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2009/10 vs. 20010/11

(year-to-date)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

MM

T

2009/10 2010/11

Total US Export Sales

as of October 28th:

20.0 MMT vs 13.2 MMT

34.0 MMT vs 24.0 MMT

Annual (projected) Total

2010-2011 Comments By Class

• 2010 Crop Quality

Report and by class

reports are posted

at www.uswheat.org

• Production:

27.7 MMT (25.0 MMT)

• Crop Development:

Land area down 5%; yields

increased; cool temps thru

head filling; rain delays in MT.

• Quality 2010 v. 5 Yr Ave:

Protein 11.8 (12.4)

Kg/Hl 80.2 (79.2)

Humid. 11.2 (11.2)

Falling # 406 (412)

Hard Red Winter Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite

710

25

28

10

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

MMT

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

• Production:

15.8 MMT (14.9 MMT)

• Crop Development:

Wet weather delayed last

15% of harvest ; generally

hot summer; higher yields.

• Quality 2010 v 5 Yr Ave:

Protein 13.7 (14.3)

Kg/Hl 81.0 (80.0)

Humid. 12.4 (12.1)

Falling # 387 (405)

Hard Red Spring Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite

46

15

16

6

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

MM

T

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

• Production:

7.1 MMT (11.0 MMT)

• Crop Development:

Land area down; generally good growing conditions favoring East Coast crop; higher DON levels elsewhere.

• Quality 2010 v 5 Yr Ave:

Protein 10.3 (9.9)

Kg/Hl 76.2 (78.1)

Humid. 12.9 (13.0)

Falling # 333 (334)

Soft Red Winter Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite

5

7

11

6

33

0

5

10

15

20

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

MM

T

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

• Production:

7.5 MMT (6.5 MMT)

• Crop Development:

“Ideal” moisture, “excellent” growing conditions. Good harvest period. More typical low proteins.

• Quality 2010 v 5 Yr Ave:

Protein 9.7 (10.4)

Kg/Hl 78.5 (78.7)

Humid. 9.4 ( 9.2)

Falling # 337 (332)

Soft White Wheat2010 Crop, Harvest Composite

2 2

6

7

45

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

MM

T

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

• Production:

3.0 MMT (3.0 MMT)

• Crop Development:

Higher planting in N. Plains offset by lower area in desert SW; wet, cool weather with little stress; delayed harvest .

• Quality Attributes:

Protein 13.4 (13.5)

Kg/Hl 78.1 (80.0)

Humid. 11.5 (11.8)

Falling # 335 (411)

Durum Wheat2010 Northern Crop, Harvest Composite

0.71.0

3.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

MM

T

Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss some

important issues.

.

We appreciate your business!