2010 Service Innovation course Bman62052 seminar 3 Videotex And Design

Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

IME - Service Innovation - 2010 BMAN62052

MIIRO

Service Innovation - Case Studies 1

Videotex and the Design of Services

Ian Miles

[email protected]



MIIRO This seminar:

Success and Failure in Information Technology- based services

Email and Fax

The Videotex case study

Service design and innovation

How to assess prospects for new services; how to design new services effectively?



MIIRO Many IT Success StoriesBUSINESS: rapid uptake of microprocessor systems, office automation, etc.CONSUMER: home computers, CDs, DVDs, digital mobile phones…

Finding whole classes of “failure” may seem difficult.Additionally, some cases where “success” seems simply to be delayed



MIIRO Trajectory of Hype

Technology Trigger

Peak

of .Inflated ..Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Source: Gartner Group, who placed various Technologies on this

Plateau of Productivity

Slope of Enlightenment

Time

Ho

pes



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Fax versus email - a Forecast of Business Communications

Terminals (millions)

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

01978 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87

source: Mackintosh report cited in the Economist 4/8/1979

US email text

US email graphics+

Europe email text

Europe email graphics+

US fax

Europe fax



MIIRO Fax vs email

Forecast: fax would grow to low level and then decline; substituted by email which would mushroomCurious differentiation text and graphics…Actual trends: Fax took off dramatically; email grew at much slower rate through 1980sFax only gets substituted in later 1990s, after web supports large-scale use of internet

eMail

fax



MIIRO

Messages initially (often still) very plain text

Stored in “mailbox”, read on-screen or printed out

Computer skills, access to “terminals” & ISPs

required

Data manipulable

Arrival in doubt

Spam, Viruses, Scams.

Equipment costs reduced in ’80s

Handwritten, typed, drawn

Delivered as hard copy

Telephone numbers, available skills

No new subscriber service

Require data re-entry

Features of Fax versus Email

More incremental to phone service Radical new service with new suppliers Familiar skills & work organisation New access to info., new functionality

Both have critical mass issues – network externalities



MIIRO LessonsForecasting is very difficult (especially about future) [Yogi Berra]Functionality is valued by engineers and technicians, but means different things and is only one factorImportant influences related to prestige, network externalitiesAlongside Equipment and Service Costs, Learning Costs may be huge deterrent As may destabilisation of social relations and threats to status – and customs (e.g. what is a legal document)Aesthetics and trust related to new media can play a major role.



MIIRO A Case from “Prehistory”

A radical new consumer service (also with business markets anticipated)Providing useful information and some entertainmentInnovators were mainly (at that time -1970s/80s) public sector firms – telecommunications “authorities”Lessons about new service development and design; about marketing and use of market research



MIIRO Videotex a.k.a. Viewdata

UK version – Prestel - “A world of information at your fingertips”

cf G Thomas & I Miles 1989 Telematics in Transition Longmans [Gibson in Technology Review - Web0.1]

The Videotex Revolution

The Viewdata Revolution

Viewdata and the Information Society



MIIRO The features of videotexAccess to computers and databases for the masses (“telematique grand publique”)Pioneered by PTOs – UK Sam Fedida at Martlesham Labs, invented c1972 (ideas in air from late ’60s), UK launch 1979. 1970s: no home computers, no broadband solution in UK, Germany, etc. (not France): use telephone + television sets. A terminal to connect TV set to phone system, a keyboard to communicate with the box. 40x24 text characters in display (not pixels); some simple graphics: same standard and same “feel” as teletext (aka Teledata) broadcast with TV - 1974 CEPT1 standard – teletext invented c1972 BY BBC labs, arose out of same ferment)1200 download /75 upload baud rates – info. access



MIIRO

Prestel

Set-top box

Small keyboard

Simple menus

Request “pages” of information

Aimed at consumers, offices, businesses

Assymetric speeds



MIIRO Prestel

Monthly subscription; Many

pages free, some charge

Information from major services

Newspapers, publishers, etc

Home banking

Person to person email – slow coming, famous hacker case in 1984 – but message boards popular

Invention in ’70s; first public demonstration 1975;

first field trial 1978 (how were results used?); launch of service 1979;

forecast several million subscribers in a few years.



MIIRO

Teletext: a source of competition?

Free; Broadcast services; bundled with TV (remote control taking off) & manufacturers enthused; feels “interactive” in providing access to screens of remote information.



MIIRO The Prestel story

Introduced by Post/Telecomms public “authority”Pilot studies not taken seriously – innovators were convinced that this was wave of futureExpectations of massive take up – millions – but slow growth, never much more than 100k adopters in UKMany information services put material online – but TV industry was uncooperative (so problems with a major complementary asset)Resistance to tying up TV and telephone? Disinterest in information content (and Teletext competition)Consumer adoption low: mainly business use (esp. travel), some hobbyists (and hobbyist VTX)Sold to FT, wound down in 1990s.



MIIRONot just a UK story: Many Other Countries introduced Videotex

New service markets for PTOs

Videotex:a new MASS market

Support for consumer electronics/ telecomms/IT industries – and perhaps media and publishing

Move into information

society = better-informed, more

competitive society – with

advanced services (for

export?)



MIIRO

Videotex adoption – not always the UK path

France

Germany

UK

1999: France c10m; Germany -

- - - and UK c0



MIIRO Miniteltry it at

http://www.minitelfr.com/Uk/home/index.html



MIIROMinitel Design

French videotex service. Terminal provided free. TV/phone not tied up. Payment hourly. Use prompted by withdrawal of phone book – critical mass – tens of millions of users by ‘90s (many purchases of superior terminals)

Much scope in system to innovate and plug in private services; messagerie and minitel rose very popular, a cultural phenomenon



MIIRO Minitel/Teletel History

Nora/Minc report, Plan TelematiqueTrials from 1978-81 by PTT discovery of importance of messagingNew communications legislation, political accommodation with press1982: launch; 1983: electronic directory – 1984: terminals distributed instead of ‘phone directoriesMany service providers appeared (10k + by 1989)Tax on messageries roses (how effective?)British and German forecasts highly optimistic – French (lower) forecasts were exceeded!



MIIRO Minitel “facts”In the late 1990s, Minitel connections were stable at 100 million a month plus 150 million online directory inquiries, in spite of growing Internet use.In 1998, Minitel generated € 832 million ($ 824 million) of revenue, of which € 521 million was channelled by France Télécom to service providers. IM note – I recall WSJ report in ‘90s saying that Minitel had cost $10bn)Minitel sales in the late 1990s accounted for almost 15% of sales at France's biggest mail order companies La Redoute and Les Trois Suisses. In 2005, the most popular Minitel application was Teleroute, the online real-time freight exchange, which accounted for nearly 60% of Minitel usage.In 2005 there were 351 million calls for 18.5 million hours of connection, generating € 206 million of revenue, of which € 145 million were redistributed to 2000 service providers (these numbers are declining at around 30% per year). There were still 6 million terminals owned by France Télécom, which had been left with their users in order to avoid recycling problems. The main uses were banking and financial services, which benefit from Minitel's security features, and access to professional databases. France Télécom mentions, as an example of usage, that 12 million updates to personal vitale health care cards were made through Minitel.[1]Source: Wikipedia Feb 2007 See also:

http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Minitel



MIIRO Minitel in declineThe web was slow to take off in France, but…

From the Bilan Minitel 2005http://www.leskiosques.com/V3/solutions/minitel/doc/bilan_minitel_2005.pdf



MIIRO Several US versionsAT&T Sceptre videotex - terminal introduced in Miami, October 1983. Wireless keyboard, with modem attached to an ordinary TV - delivered news, weather, sports, stock reports, banking, shopping, email, etc. The Sceptre initially sold for $900 with a monthly fee of $12; the service plan was changed to $39.95 a month with free rental of the box. Marketed in about a dozen cities.Very low adoption rate.Withdrawn in 1986.

http://www.cedmagic.com/history/sceptre.jpg



MIIRO Early Competition in the US

Computer-telephone system-computer networkingE.g COMPUSERVE –

1969: Compu-Serv Network: business services (time-sharing, then information access) Consumer information service developed despite internal opposition: in 1978 marketed through Radio Shack, as MicroNET. Initially permitted since it used the computers during evening hours, when business use was low. Email 1978 (and to Internet 1989), chatlines 1980. Payment: hourly rate Expanded to Japan, UK, Germany; c 400,000 subscribers by late ’80s…Competing services included AOL (monthly subscription)But all faced big problems with advent of World Wide Web on Internet, and slow to respond. Compuserve acquired by AOL late ’90s.



MIIROHow to explain different

trajectories?

Schnedier et al 1991:

Terminal design and provision

Systems architecture & service provision

Billing systems

Regulatory constraints & political support



MIIRO Design LessonsNew learningConflict with established routinesCosts and uncertaintiesNetwork externalitiesNeed to pilot and market research – user requirements may not match innovator view of functionalitiesOpenness to reinvention, new complementary servicesOther lessons?



MIIRO Conclusions

Take-off of Web (and Minitel) indicates that there is strong demand for new IT-based services of these sortsThe right services, with the right content/communication partners -on the right platforms?What other lessons need to be drawn?

Hoe can we design service (systems)?



MIIRO

End of Presentation(some extra slides follow)




trajectories? 1

Terminal design and provision

Britain

Adapted TV set; later set-top box, PCs –

Producers were private firms

Germany

Adapted TV set; later “multitel”)- Producers were private firms

France

Mintel dedicated terminal, distributed free – produced for France Telecom




trajectories? 2

Systems architecture & service provision

Britain

Initially closed system (external computers allowed in 1982; one update system with several central databases; private information providers with a common carrier (changes in 1983 when BT becomes IP)

Germany

One central database, regional sub-bases, in a hierarchical network, with interconnection to private computers (expensive and cumbersome); private information providers; supposedly equitable

France

Transpac (packet-switched data) network; service computers and privately owned databases networked; trigger service of e-phone book; private IPS otherwise with DGT licensing access to Kiosque biling service




trajectories? 3

Billing systems

Britain

Subscription fee; phone charges; page-based charges for some services; charge appears on phone bill

Germany

Subscription fee; phone charges; page-based charges for some services; charge appears on phone bill

France

No subscription: charged by time using services; up to 1 euro per minute but most services much cheaper; charge appears on phone bill



MIIROHow to explain different trajectories? 4, finally

Regulatory constraints & political support

Britain

Not very politicised (though some campaigning for broadband); no specific regulations

Germany

Highly politicised, restrictive regime

France

Politicised but seen as significant industrial policy and specific regulations liberal

Long debate over PTT break-up and

privatisation

Growth of VANS

market for business



MIIRO World Wide Web

0

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10,000,000

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1969

Jun-

74

Aug-8

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Aug-8

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Oct-9

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Date

No

of

Ho

sts

Host Count

Adjusted Host Count

NUA’s "educated guess“ as to how many are online worldwide (May 2002):

World Total - 580.78 mAfrica - 6.31 mAsia/Pacific - 167.86 mEurope -185.83 mMiddle East - 5.12 mCanada/USA - 182.67 mLatin America - 32.99 m Compiled by: Nua Internet Surveys

Number of Web Hosts



MIIRO

2010 Service Innovation course Bman62052 seminar 3 Videotex And Design

Business

Transcript of 2010 Service Innovation course Bman62052 seminar 3 Videotex And Design