2010 Denver Industrial Market Update
description
Transcript of 2010 Denver Industrial Market Update
CB Richard Ellis
N A
I
O P
N A
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Owner, Developer, Investor Summit
Denver Industrial Market Update
Paul Kluck, SIOR
CB Richard Ellis
Denver Industrial Market
QUICK FACTS
± 224 Million Square Feet (Year 2000 ± 211 Million Square Feet)
22nd Largest Industrial Market
2nd Tier Distribution Market – (1st Tier Chicago, New Jersey,
Dallas, Los Angeles)
Center of the Rocky Mountain Region
Large Geographic Area/Small Population
Denver CSA Population: 2.75 Million
Key Location for National Users
QUICK FACTS
± 224 Million Square Feet (Year 2000 ± 211 Million Square Feet)
22nd Largest Industrial Market
2nd Tier Distribution Market – (1st Tier Chicago, New Jersey,
Dallas, Los Angeles)
Center of the Rocky Mountain Region
Large Geographic Area/Small Population
Denver CSA Population: 2.75 Million
Key Location for National Users
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Regional Distribution: Percentage of U.S. Population Reached Within 500 Miles
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Industrial Supply & Demand Trends Metro Denver
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MS
F
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Va
ca
nc
y
Completions Net Absorption Vacancy
Forecast
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Industrial Market Comparison | 2009
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Denver Phoenix Las Vegas
Vacancy Rate (%)
Net Negative Absorption (- MSF)
-332,911 SF
-4,649,352 SF
-1,589,020 SF
7.2%
16.1%
10.2%
“We’re Not as Bad as Phoenix and Vegas”
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360,000 Square Feet
O’Reilly Automotive
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Anheuser-Busch
119,116 Square Feet
Anheuser-Busch / MBM
MBM
110,000 Square Feet
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O’Reilly Automotive 360,000 Colorado Petroleum 230,636 SMA Solar 167,000 GE 152,000 Kevry Corp 135,246 Best Buy 130,000 Anheuser-Busch 119,116 MBM 115,000 Metech 112,000 Fusion Specialties 112,000
MAJOR TRANSACTIONS – USER SALES AND LEASES
Denver Industrial Market | 2009
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4801-4885 Moline St.
97,870 SF Class B Warehouse
100% Leased
Cobalt Industrial REIT / ProLogis
11175 E 55th Ave.
237,400 SF Class B Warehouse
100% Leased
14303 E Moncrieff Pl.
164,364 SF Class B Warehouse
100% Leased
Multi-Property Sale on 12/10/09 for $18,525,000 ($37.08/SF)
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Industrial Investment Market Trends | 2009
Annual Sales Denver
$-
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
000'
s
CAP RATES
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Major Development Plans | 2010Developer Sq. Ft.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total 0
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Phase I - RecoveryPhase I - Recovery
Phase II - ExpansionPhase II - Expansion Phase III - HypersupplyPhase III - Hypersupply
Phase IV - RecessionPhase IV - Recession
•Declining Vacancy•New Construction•Rent Growth
•Increasing Vacancy•New Construction•Rent Growth Positive but Declining
•Increasing Vacancy•More Completions•Rent Growth Negative or <Inflation Rate
•Declining Vacancy•Limited Construction•Rent Growth Negative or <Inflation Rate
Industrial Brokerage Group
Where are we in the Industrial Cycle?
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• Downward Pressure On Pricing– Lease Rates– Sale Prices– Land Prices
• Flight to Quality– Low lease rates drive
demand to Class A space
• Shrinking Demand– Class B and C
• Blend and Extend– Early Renewals
• Short Term Leases
• Extended Deal Cycle
Industrial Market Trends | 2009
Flight to Quality - Class A Vacancy
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Vac
ancy
Rat
e (%
)
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Industrial Market Predictions | 2010
New Construction
Lease Rates
Absorption
Vacancy
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Presented by
Jim Bolt
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Two-Buck Kluck’s 2010 Forecast
2010 Will Suck Less than 2009