2010 apimec presentation

38
São Paulo, December 9, 2010 Apimec 2010 Presentation 1

Transcript of 2010 apimec presentation

Page 1: 2010 apimec presentation

São Paulo, December 9, 2010

Apimec 2010Presentation

1

Page 2: 2010 apimec presentation

Disclaimer

Certain statements in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Such statements are

subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause the Company’s actual results to

differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. These risks include changes in

customer demand for the Company’s products, changes in raw material costs, seasonal fluctuations in

customer orders, pricing actions by competitors, significant changes in the applicable rates of exchange of

the Brazilian real against the US dollar, and general changes in the economic environment in Brazil,

emerging markets or internationally.

Page 3: 2010 apimec presentation

Agenda

Corporate Overview and Growth Cycle

Forestry Business Unit

Pulp Business Unit

Paper Business Unit

Results

04

14

20

27

34

Page 4: 2010 apimec presentation

4

Acquisition of Suzano mill

Acquisition of Indústrias de Papel Rio Verde’s control

Beginning of paper exports to Europe

Launch of Report

Acquisition of Ripasa (50%)

Start up of the first paper mill

Suzano 2024

1939

1955

1956

1960

1975

19822005

2004

Consolidation as one of the largest Brazilian Groups

Growth and diversification in the pulp and paper businesses

Beginning of operations in the

paper industry

First investment in the pulp sector

2010

Adoption of Bovespa’sLevel I corporate governance standards and Professional Management

Start up of Bahia Sul

1992

Start up of Line 2at Mucuri

2007

Pioneerism in eucalyptus plantation

2008

New Growth Cycle

Suzano Renewable Energy

Merger with Bahia Sul

1924

Acquisition of FuturaGene,

PLC.

Corporate OverviewTimeline

1924 until 1940 1950 1960 until 1990 2000 2024

Leon Feffer starts paper trading activities

4

Page 5: 2010 apimec presentation

Growth CycleSuzano’s Strategy

Constant increases in forestry productivity guarantees competitiveness in the pulp business and enables new business opportunities in Biotechnology and Renewable Energy

Operational excellence in paper

ForestryCompetency

Wood pelletsOrganic growth in pulp

Biotechnology

5

Page 6: 2010 apimec presentation

Suzano reviewed its strategy and presents innovative growth plans supported by its competencies and forestry know-how

BiotecnologiaInvestimento emEnergia Renovável

Biotechnology

Organic Growth in Pulp

Investment in Renewable Energy

Growth CycleGrowth Strategy

6

Page 7: 2010 apimec presentation

Suzano’s production capacity has increased by 130% in the last 5 years. The Company is prepared for a new growth cycle that will increase its capacity to 5.6 MM ton/year of pulp and paper by 2014

Mucuri Unit and new pulp line: analysis of the global economy and pulp market outlook for definition of the implementation schedule and start up.

Growth CycleOrganic Growth in Pulp

1,720

2,850

5,650

4,250

1,4851,240

Piauí Unit

Maranhão

Unit

1,920

2,750 2,850 2,850 2,850

7

Page 8: 2010 apimec presentation

Projects:

• Market pulp production capacity: 1.5 MM ton/year per unit

• Estimated industrial capex: US$ 2.3 billion per unit

• Forestry capex already invested:US$ 407 million

• Funding: ~ 80% debt and remainder cash flow generation

• BNDES and ECA’s1

• Competitive costs, long term and grace period

Competitive Advantages:

• 100 MW energy surplus per unit for sale

• Logistics guaranteed by long term contracts

• Projects’ updates with better returns

• Tax incentives

Growth CycleNew Units in Maranhão and Piauí

Maranhão Piauí

Required planted area 154 tsd ha 170 tsd ha

Forestry capex(total estimated)

US$ 575 million

US$ 710 million

Start up (estimative) 2013 2014

Wood supply68% own land

32% third parties

70% own land 30% third

parties

8

Draft of Piauí’s nursery Draft of the MA / PI mill

1 Export Credit Agency

Page 9: 2010 apimec presentation

• Acquisition concluded in July/2010

• Pioneer in biotechnology research and development

• Sustainable technologies

• Environmentally oriented to meet growing demand for fiber and

biomass

• Techniques for higher forestry productivity

• R&D forestry synergies: competitive main factor in the pulp and

paper markets

Biotechnology is on the right

side of Sustainability

Innovation

• Less land utilization

• Less water consumption

• Less chemical expenditure

• Higher carbon sequestration

Growth CycleFuturaGene

9

Page 10: 2010 apimec presentation

• Analysis of the clones portfolio: special clone selection

• Dedicated plantation (more plants per hectare)

• Higher yield

• Harvest in 2 to 3 years

• High lignin content – high calorific value

• Unuseful for pulp production

• Experimental “energetic” stewardship in Northeast

Experiments with

“Energetic Forests”

since 2008

Suzano Renewable Energy– 1st fase

• 3 units: 1 MM ton/year each

• Capex: US$ 800 million

• World leader

• Initial focus on the European market

Wood pellets for energy, produced from

renewable energy-oriented forests

Growth CycleSuzano Renewable Energy

10

Page 11: 2010 apimec presentation

Growth CycleRenewable Energy Business Rationale

Internal View

• Competencies linked to the forestry business

• Successful experiments with energetic forest

• Excellence in industrial projects’ management and

relations with suppliers (i.e: equipments, logistics,

etc)

Market View

• Global focus in energy from renewable sources and

emission reduction

• European challenges linked with future supply and

202020 targets

• Need for structured pellets suppliers and long-term

contracts (big utilities)

Transfer of Suzano’s pulp competitivity to the renewable energy market

Know HowHigh productivity based on forestry R&D

Time-to-market“Energetic” stewardship - harvest in 2 to 3 years: start up in 2013

RelianceIntegrated forests, scale and strong cash generation

Environmental and social “Footprint”Pellets: 100% from planted forests, with high environmental management standards

Operations in the Brazilian Northeast, with relevant contributions to social development

11

Page 12: 2010 apimec presentation

Growth CycleProject Update

• Conceptual engineer

• Technology definition

with suppliers

• Chemical properties

aligned with the European market

• Forestry Base: harvesting tests

• Dedicated team

• Commercial agreements: negotiation

of final contracts with clients

- MoUs for 3.1 mm/ton/year

• Search and negotiation of lands

• Understandings with State governments

• Discussions with ship-owners and

logistics providers

• Funding: definition of the capital structure (1Q11)

Concluded Steps Ongoing Steps

12

Page 13: 2010 apimec presentation

Agenda

Corporate View and Growth Cycle

Forestry Business Unit

Pulp Business Unit

Paper Business Unit

Results

14

20

27

34

04

Page 14: 2010 apimec presentation

Forestry Business UnitForestry Assets

Forests average distance:246 Km

Forests average distance:75 Km

The Forestry Business Unit (FBU) guarantees to Suzano100% eucalyptus wood supply from renewable planted forests

Suzano has developed forestry stewardship expertise and a complete genetic base for various scenarios due to its presence in different places with temperature, climate, precipitation, soil, and relief variations.

FBU in Numbers 2010

Total area (tsd ha) 663

Planted area (tsd ha) 290

Anual planting (tsd ha) 97

Planted saplings / day (tsd) 398

Harvested trees / day (tsd) 125

Anual harvest (million m³) 11.1

Loaded trucks / year (tsd units)

201

Preserved Area (tsd ha) 254Total: 143 tsd ha

Planted: 87 tsd ha

Total: 220 tsd ha

Planted:

126 tsd ha

Total: 300 tsd ha

Planted: 77 tsd ha

SP

BA, ES and MG

MA, PI and TO

2010 Areas’ Chart

14

Page 15: 2010 apimec presentation

Forestry Business UnitForestry Competitivity in Brazil

Brazil presents competitive advantages to support continuous increase of its global forestry standing

• Availability of productive land

• Excellent soil and climate conditions

• Short harvesting cycle for planted forests

• Regenaration potential of degraded areas

• Formation and maintenance low costs

• Continuously growing consumer market

• Logistics

• Tax Structure

• Cost of Capital

• Education Level

• Exchange Rate

Challenges

Competitive Advantages

Source: ABRAF, BRACELPA, Adapted by STCP Consulting

45.0 41.0

25.020.0

13.06.0 4.0

Leafy Productivity (m³/ha/year)

Suzano’sEucalyptus

Brazil Australia SouthAfrica

Portugal USA Finland

15

Page 16: 2010 apimec presentation

Suzano’s pioneerism and innovation enabled the development of stewardship techniques’ improvements and formation of a genetic base

Competitive Advantages

• Genetic portfolio

• Forestry technology

• Management abilities

• Nutrition and soil research: potential to increase productivity

• Operational development: precision forestry (↑ efficiency)

• Forestry innovative concepts: “Night Planting” and “Energetic Forest”

—Total clones: 14,729

—Field experiments: 614

— Total experimented area: 3,913 ha

Pulp Productivity

5,5 admt1/ha/year 11 admt1/ha/year

Biotechnology

1980 2010

• More wood / hectare

• More pulp / m³

• Superior quality

• Smaller area

• Decreasing costs / m³

New Businesses

+100%

Source: Suzano

Forestry Business UnitSuzano’s Forestry Competitivity

1Admt: air dried metric ton16

Page 17: 2010 apimec presentation

Forrestry Business UnitSustainability, Innovation and Governance

Sustainability Directive Plan considers a refined concept of theTriple Bottom Line comprising Innovation and Governance

• Global competitiveness and scale

• Consistent margins and returns

• Capital discipline

Economic financial

Environment

• Forest management and certified chain of custody

• Member of CCX1 and WBCSD2

• ECOFUTURO (Parque das Neblinas)

Governance

Application of

sustainability principles

in the decision-making

process

Innovation• Processes, products

and clean technologies

• Stakeholders’ knowledge valorization

Social

• 57 public libraries

• Renovation of 35 public schools in 3 states

• ECOFUTURO: 92 thousand benefited students

1 Chicago Climatic Exchange2 World Business Council for Sustainable Development

17

Page 18: 2010 apimec presentation

Forestry Business UnitStrategy

Consolidation ofoperations in the Northeast:Maranhão and Piauí

Guarantee of excellencein new businesses linked to forestry competencies

Operational excellence:focus on forestrymanagement and wood logistics

Long-term view research and development for forestry technologies

18

Page 19: 2010 apimec presentation

Agenda

Corporate View and Growth Cycle

Forestry Business Unit

Pulp Business Unit

Paper Business Unit

Results

14

20

27

34

04

Page 20: 2010 apimec presentation

25

Minerals

51%

49%

72%

28%

(13% of total fibers)

8%

8%

44%

50%

64%

10%

BHKP2

6%

Source: Poyry and Suzano

BEKP3

16

2010e

401

BSKP1

Others

22

3

Integratedpulp

Market pulp

131

50Virgin fiber

Recycled

188

181

Global production of paper and paperboard

Total fiberconsumption

369

401

1.6

Suzano’s 2014 estimated production of 4,6 mm ton (26% of global production)

1 Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp2 Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp3 Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp

20

Pulp Business UnitOverview

Pulp and Paper Production Chain – 2010e

2010e Production (MM ton)

Market pulp still represents the smaller part of the fiber used for paper production.

New paper capacities are being installed near to consumer markets, while cash costs drives implementation of new pulp capacities.

Mill

ions o

f to

ns

Printing and Writing

Tissue

Paperboard

CorrugatedNewsprintOthers

Page 21: 2010 apimec presentation

Pulp Business UnitPulp demand growth driven by eucalyptus and by European and Chinese markets

7,420

7,785

8,185

8,4858,655

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

2,945

3,9304,355

4,9505,385

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

15,71517,405 18,580 19,710 20,560

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

49,085

51,61053,215

54,55555,755

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

CAGR ’03 -’09: +2.2%

Source: PPPC

Demand: Market Pulp (K ton) Demand: Eucalyptus Pulp (K ton)

CAGR ’03 -’09: +11.3%

Eucalyptus Pulp – China (K ton)

CAGR ’03 -’09: +26.9%

Eucalyptus Pulp – Europe (K ton)

CAGR ’03 -’09: +7.4%

21

2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Page 22: 2010 apimec presentation

Pulp Business Unit Supply increase driven by eucalyptusshows Suzano as a relevant player

17,530 18,905 19,61021,170 22,415

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

55,045

57,670 58,33060,140

61,535

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

3,000

4,315

4,990

6,385

Suzano

Brazil

Latin America

Global

New Eucalyptus Pulp Capacities Forecast2010 – 2014 (K ton)

Market Pulp Supply (K ton)

CAGR’03 -’09:

+2.7%

Eucalyptus Pulp Supply (K ton)

CAGR’03 -’09:

+11.3%

Eucalyptus’ Supply and Demand Balance (%)

100%

78%

68%

47%

90%

92%

95%

93%92%

10e 11e 12e 13e 14e

Source: PPPC, Suzano22

2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e

Page 23: 2010 apimec presentation

Pulp Business Unit Brazilian Pulp Cash Cost: Structurally Low

Source: Hawkins Wright, jul/ 10 - Volumes do not include production of unbleached pulp and high yield pulp.

Hardwood Softwood

US$ / ton (CIF/ North Europe)

Ch

ile

Fin

land

Can

ada (E

ast)

Can

ada (B

ritish C

olu

mb

ia)

Ch

ile

Ind

on

esia

Can

ada

Iberia, N

orw

ay

Brazil

Sw

eden

US

A300

US$ 300 – 401 / ton

US$ 441 - 651 / ton

US$ 511 - 696 / ton

US

A

Sw

eden

Can

ada (B

ritish C

olu

mb

ia Co

ast)

400

500

600

700

Fin

land

Fran

ce, Au

stria and

Belg

ium

Japan

US$ 367-398 / ton

Ch

ina

Fran

ce and

Belg

ium

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ru

ssia

23

Page 24: 2010 apimec presentation

2007 2008 2009 LTM 9M10

Domestic Market Exports

1,195

799

1,608

1,320

1,780

80%

82%

85% 82%

82%

20% 18% 15% 18% 18%

41%

28%

19%

12%

33%

39%

9%1%

18%Asia

Europe

North America

South/Central Am.

Brazil

Note: LTM = last 12 months

Pulp Business Unit Highlights

• Technical support in each international office: China, Switzerland and USA

• 80% of total sales with long term contracts

• More than 150 active clients

• Strategic long-term partnerships with clients:

• Logistics

• Technology

• Pre and post sale technical assistance

• Strategic focus on high value added segments

Pulp Sales Volume (K ton)

Sales per Segment – 9M10

Pulp Sales Destinations – 9M10

Printing and Writing

Tissue

Special

Others

24

Page 25: 2010 apimec presentation

25

Pulp Business Unit Strategy

Focus on sustainable growth strategy

Presence in main international markets

Strategic relationship with clients

Page 26: 2010 apimec presentation

Agenda

Corporate View and Growth Cycle

Forestry Business Unit

Pulp Business Unit

Paper Business Unit

Results

14

20

27

34

04

Page 27: 2010 apimec presentation

CAGR 1.8% p.a.

2015e2010e

27

Paper Business Unit Global Paper Demand

Growth Premises

Global Paper Demand (MM ton)

Suzano’sFocus

Others

Tissue

Paperboard1

Printing and Writing

1 Paperboard + liquid packaging boardSource: Poyry – 2009

210 232

29334652

116121

1 2

438

401

• Global paper demand growth (2010-2015) of 1.8% p.a.• Printing and Writing: +0.9% p.a.• Paperboard: +2.5 % p.a.

• Industry is still considered fragmented, but with significant regional concentration

• Emerging markets lead supply and demand growth

Page 28: 2010 apimec presentation

Paper Business Unit Demand Growth Drivers

Historically there is a high correlation between GDP per capita and paper consumption. In Brazil, the positive economic growth forecasts represent an important driver for the domestic paper demand.

• Education

• Digital printing

• Electronic Media

• Plastics

Source: Poyry, 2008

Latin Am. and Brazil = 41kg USA = 300kg

Paper Consumption x GDP per Capita

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

kg p

er c

apit

a)

GDP per Capita (US$)

Taiwan

Korea Rep.

China.

Brazil

Spain

UK

Japan

Sweden

USA

28

Page 29: 2010 apimec presentation

Paper Business UnitBrazil and Latin America are the main Markets

1 Paperboard + liquid packaging board; 2 Uncoated + CoatedSource: RISI Latin America Forecast –Nov/10

• Economic growth, higher GDP and increased industrial activity

• Education level improvement and access to new technologies

• Latin America (ex-Brazil): net importing market

• Suzano’s competitive advantage:

- Geographic proximity and lower logistic costs

- Brand recognition

- Portfolio: wide range of products

Latin Amercica ex-Brazil Demand (MM ton)Brazilian Demand (MM ton)

2,9553,412

1,533

1,875

2010 2015

4,488

5,2873.3% p.a.

4.1% p.a.

2.9% p.a.

2,788

3,4344.3% p.a.

4.2% p.a.

4.3% p.a.

1,8932,335

895

1,099

2010 20152010e 2015e 2010e 2015e

Printing & Writing2

Paperboard1

Printing & Writing2

Paperboard1

29

Page 30: 2010 apimec presentation

2007 2008 2009 LTM 9M10

Domestic Market Exports

Paper Business Unit Highlights

• Leadership in printing & writing and white paperboard in South America

• More than 90% integrated production (pulp + paper)

• Fx hedge: approximately 60% of paper revenue in local currency

• 2 own paper merchants – SPP NEMO (2nd largest in Brazil) and Stenfar (Argentina)

• Premium pricing in the segments where we act

• Lower price volatility in the domestic market

Sales Destination – 9M10Sales Volume (k ton)

OthersEurope

North America

South/ Central Am.

Brazil

56%

43% 47%41% 44%

44%

59% 57% 53% 56%

839

1,125 1,162 1,116 1,146

Note: LTM = last 12 months

56%

19%

11%

11%3%

30

Page 31: 2010 apimec presentation

134

113

60

80

100

120

140

Paper Business UnitPrice Recovery to Pre-Crisis Levels

Pap

erb

oar

dP

rin

tin

g &

Wri

tin

g

102

111

60

80

100

120

140

Sep10

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jan08

Average Net Prices

Note: Prices of domestic market in R$; prices of exports in US$

Paperboard

Domestic Market

• Market dominance in high value added segments

• Low level presence of imports

• Growth of the consumer industry

Printing & Writing

Domestic Market

• Imports: high concentration of coated

• Exchange rate’s effects

• Fiscal control of Immune paper operations

Jul08

Jan 10

Jul 09

Jan 09

Jan08

Jul08

Jul10

Jul10

Sep10

31

ExportsDomestic Market

Page 32: 2010 apimec presentation

Paper Business UnitStrategy

Revenue Management

Strengtheningof DistributionChannels

AssetOptimization

ProductsPortfolioManagement

32

Page 33: 2010 apimec presentation

Agenda

Corporate Overview and Growth Cycle

Forestry Business Unit

Pulp Business Unit

Paper Business Unit

Results

14

20

27

34

04

33

Page 34: 2010 apimec presentation

33.5%30.3%

36.2%

25.8%

37.3% 39.9%

2006 2007 2008 2009 LTM 9M10

1,071 1,125 1,162 1,116 1,146

839

2006 2007 2008 2009 LTM 9M10

Domestic Market Exports Volume

615 7991,320

1,780 1,6081,195

2006 2007 2008 2009 LTM 9M10Domestic Market Exports Volume

1,686 1,9242,482 2,896 2,754

2,034

2006 2007 2008 2009 LTM 9M10

Domestic Marlet Exports Volume

3,319

4,338

3,0993,410

4,064

58%42% 47%54%

58%57%

3,953

1,5171,6091,539

934737

1,928

86%86%

83%

80%81%

83%

42%58% 53% 46% 42% 43%

1,3251,617

1,040 1,034

1,469

1,021

2.18 1.95 1.83 2.00 1.77 1.78R$/US$ avg.

2.18 1.95 1.83 2.00 1.77 1.78R$/US$ avg.

ResultsNet Revenue and EBITDA

Net Revenue (R$ million) and Volume (K ton) EBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA Margin (%)

Paper: Revenue (R$ million) and Volume (K ton) Pulp: Revenue (R$ million) and Volume (K ton)

Note: The amounts of 2010 include the adjustments introduced by the IFRS standardsLTM = last 12 months

1,8012,344

2,5252,458 2,4112,336

39%

63%

37%

63%

37%61%63%66%

31%

69%

34% 37%

34

Page 35: 2010 apimec presentation

4Q10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016onwards

Local Currency Foreign Currency

ResultsAdequate Debt Amortization Schedule and Liquidity Profile

• Cash: R$ 3.6 billion on 09/30/2010

• Liquidity horizon: low rollover risk even under stress scenarios

• Competitive cost of debt and duration of 3.7 years

• Debt breakdown on 09/30/2010: 51% in foreign currency and 49% in local currency (R$)

• Moody’s: Baa3 (stable) Investment Grade; S&P: BB+ (stable)

417

9661,006

1,3901,230

516

1,951

Amortization schedule (R$ million) Debt - Sep/ 2010

R$ million Amount Leverage

BNDES 2,406 1.5x

Nordic Investment Bank 80 0.0x

FINIMP 311 0.2x

Projetcs Debt 2,797 1.7x

Trade Finance 2,258 1.4x

Debentures 784 0.5x

Others 1,310 0.8x

Gross Debt 7,476 4.4x

Cash and Cash Equivalents 3,617 2.2x

Net Debt 3,850 2.4x

3535

Page 36: 2010 apimec presentation

1,6162,475

3,919 4,2855,459

3,966 3,850

1,039 913 1,040 1,146 1,469 1,021 1,617

1.6x2.7x

3.8x 3.7x 3.7x 3.9x2.4x

-3.0

2.0

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 LTM

Net Debt (R$ MM) EBITDA (R$ MM) Net Debt/EBITDA (x)

Acquisitionof Ripasa

Implementation ofMucuri Project

(line 2)Start up of line

2 at Mucuri

World economic

crisis

Note: The amounts of 2010 include the adjustments introduced by the IFRS standardsLTM = last 12 months

ResultsConservative Financial Policy

• Benchmark: investment grade status

• Net Debt/ EBITDA ratios may increase temporarily due to growth projects

• Amortization in line with the projects’ cash flow

• Capex discipline

• Hedging for cash flow, not for accounting results

• No use of complex, illiquid or exotic derivatives

36

Page 37: 2010 apimec presentation

ResultsWhy to Invest in Suzano?

+ Revenue+ EBITDA+ Earnings+ Market Appreciation

BiotechnologyWood PelletsOrganic Growth in PulpOperational Excellence in Paper

1924

2024

ProfessionalManagement

CapitalMarkets

2010

Defined ControllingGroup

37

Page 38: 2010 apimec presentation

Investor Relations Team

Investor Relationswww.suzano.com.br/ri

Antonio Maciel (CEO and IR Director) +55 (11) 3503-9061 [email protected]

Andrea Fernandes (IR Executive Manager) +55 (11) 3503-9062 [email protected]

Fernanda Nardy (Analyst) +55 (11) 3503-9066 [email protected]

Michelle Corda (Analyst) +55 (11) 3503-9359 [email protected]

Rosely Onizuca (Analyst) +55 (11) 3503-9355 [email protected]

Áurea Portugal (Assistant) +55 (11) 3503-9061 [email protected]

Eduardo Oliveira (Intern) +55 (11) 3503-9306 [email protected]

38