200mm Fabs Still Flexing Muscles - SEMI.ORG | to 2021 3rd update July 2017 Since Nov 2016 made 232...

Christian Gregor Dieseldorff

200mm Fabs Still Flexing Muscles

Director Industry Research & Analysis, SEMI California

Size is Relative

2C.G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group, Copyright SEMI California

The First 200mm Facilities

IBM’s ASTC R&D/Pilot Development

Building 630, 640, 650 in Hopewell Junction (Fishkill), NY

1990: 64Mbit DRAM Project

Motorola at Oak Hill, Austin, Texas

1st commercial 200mm fab. Construction complete 1990

115K SQF manufacturing space

1991: started with 256K FSRAM

1992: Semiconductor International “Fab of the Year”

Spun off as Freescale in 2004. Since end 2015: NXP

Source: Google Maps


Size is Relative


Growth Drivers


Growth Drivers

Increasing content in mobile and automotives

200mm wafer fabs are popular for a wide variety of products

Increase of content in

smart phones. Example

iPhone 6 Plus:

About 75% of its chips are

made on 200mm wafers

Over 70% of all IC

content for automotives,

mobile devices, and

wearable are made

on =< 200mm wafers


Growth Drivers

Source: Semico Research Corp. Phoenix, Arizona, November 2014

By 2020

25 Billion to 100 Billion

connected devices

Sentiment is 50 Billion

By 2035

275 Billion devices

IOT Applications


Growth Drivers

Source: physics.org/facts (Sept 2017)

Evolution of the car: more and more electronic content

Apollo 11 landed on the moon on July 20, 1969

Automotive


Growth Drivers

By 2030, automotive electronics

will account for more than half the

cost of a new vehicle

Evolution of the car: ADAS*, autonomous vehicle

More electronic content!

*ADAS: Advanced driver assistance system will allow

the vehicle to think on its own and make decisions

without driver input.

Automotive


Source: Applied Materials, Nanochip July 2015

Growth Drivers

Devices built on 200mm

Certain products find

their sweet spot


Bottleneck


Bottleneck

Contraction of 200mm Fabs

Starting 2008:

companies converted from

200mm to 300mm

200mm Fabs closed

Not closed in 2017: Infineon’s 200mm fab in Newport, Wales was acquired by Neptune 6 in September 2017


Bottleneck

Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)

Starting 2008:

some companies went

out of business or were

acquired


Bottleneck

Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)

Since 2015: 36 companies had mergers and acquisitions which involved fabs:

2015: 12 companies

2016: 14 companies

2017: 12 companies

2018: 4 companies

Based on the major product types of the companies involved. Double counting may apply E.g. MEMS/Foundry or Power, Analog/Mixed Signal.

Memory is Spansion


Bottleneck

Old 200mm shell finds new home

Former Hynix Fab in Eugene, found a buyer: New York-based Corning Inc. paid $13.39 million

1.2 Million Square Foot plant. Empty 200mm facility. Built in 1997. Closed since 2008.Changed ownership several times. Last owner Broadcom (Avago) since 2015

Corning makes a range of products, including optical fiber for

communications, cover glass for mobile devices and liquid-crystal

displays for TVs

No immediate plans for fab.

If it will be equipped for 200mm,

is equipment available?


Bottleneck

Availability of refurbished (used) 200mm equipment

Shortage of 200mm equipment has increased in 2015.

No new sources of used 200mm tools

Majority of tools are being absorbed by China.

End of 2015/begin of 2016: 300mm tool supply crossed over 200mm.


Capacity


Outlook to 20213rd update July 2017Since Nov 2016 made 232 changes on 132 facilities

PDF file with 90+ pages of graphs and tables

Excel file covering 2010 to 2021

Quarterly data for capacity, spending, products, nodes

130+ companies

300+ facilities


Landscape

Evaluate the landscape


Fab Count and Capacity

From end 2016 to end of 2021:

about 600K wpm capacity planned

By 2019: capacity is like it was back

in 2007 with ~5.6M wpm (but less fabs)

From begin of 2017 to end 2021:

8 additional fabs/lines will be in

operation

200mm Fabs make a come back


Capacity200mm Silicon Shipment Trends 2010 to 2018

Similar to the installed capacity trend,

200mm wafer shipments started to increase

in 2013

Growth rates (YoY) for 2016: 3%, 2017F:

12%, 2018F: 3%, 2019F 2%


Trends by Region

Company and Fab count

China is adding most 200mm fabs:

From 2015 to 2021: 12 fabs

(excluding EPI, LED, R&D)


Capacity Changes by Product Type

MEMS make a big leap

4Q16 to 4Q21

MEMS 55%

Power 19%

Discrete 15%

Analog 12%

Foundry 11%

Logic 5%

MPU 0%

Other 0%Source: Global 200mm Fab Outlook, Sept 2017, SEMI

Change 200mm Capacity

2017 to 2021

Driven mainly by mobile, wireless, IOT, and automotive, the 200mm market is thriving

CIS in Logic or FoundryDiscrete excludes Power


Capacity Changes by Region

China is adding most capacity

4Q16 to 4Q21

Capacity for following products:

China: Foundry, Analog, Logic, and MEMS

SE Asia: Power

Americas: MEMS and Logic

Change 2017 to 2021China 45%

SE Asia 28%

Americas 11%

Europe & ME 7%

Taiwan 2%

Japan 2%

Korea 0%Source: 200mm Fab Report, Sept 2017, SEMI


Capacity by Process Node

Certain products

found their

“Sweet Spot”

on

200mm wafers


Investments

Fab Equipment SpendingFab Construction


Fab Equipment Spending

From 2017 (including) to 2021: US$13 Billion for equipment


Fab Construction Spending

New Fab Constructions

From 2017 (including) to 2021: almost US$1 Billion for construction

China is starting

construction on 3

new fab projects

from 2017 to 2021


Summary

1. Growing electronic content for mobile, automotive, Industrial, and IoT drive the need for

devices made on 200mm wafers

2. Availability of 200mm equipment is a bottleneck

3. We expect 8 additional Fabs/lines to be in operation from 2017 to 2021

4. From 2017 to 2021, Foundries and Power devices show most capacity added but growth-wise

MEMS devices show largest increase with 55% followed by Power (19%) and Discretes (15%)

5. From 2017 to 2021, China is adding most capacity (45%) followed by SE Asia (28%) and the

Americas (11%)

6. 200mm Fabs make a come back reaching capacities by 2019 like in 2007 and adding new

Fabs


Outlook to 20213rd update July 2017Since Nov 2016 made 232 changes on 132 facilities

PDF file with 90+ pages of graphs and tables

Excel file covering 2010 to 2021

Quarterly data for capacity, spending, products, nodes

130+ companies

300+ facilities


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