2009 Summer Outlook and Sable Island Offshore Energy Project Planned Outage

Reliability Committee meetingJune 16, 2009

Michael TaniwhaDirector Operations

Overview

• 2008 Summer Review

• Major Transmission Projects

• Summer Action Plan

• Summer Operable Capacity Analysis

• Sable Island Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) Outage

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2008 Summer Review

• Last summer’s temperatures generally cooler• Last summer’s peak 26,111 MW on June 10

– Previous all time peak load was 28,130 MW on August 2, 2006

• No OP4 actions required in summer period

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Major Transmission Projects

• Middletown - Norwalk 345 kV loop– Beseck – East Devon– East Devon – Singer– Singer – Norwalk– New 345/115 kV autos at Norwalk, Singer & East Devon

• 1385 (Northport - Norwalk Cables)• 3163 Stoughton - K Street cable (3rd Boston cable)• Short-term LSM Project (May – June 2009)

– Carver substation reconfiguration– 2nd 345/115 kV auto transformer– Looping 355 Pilgrim – Bridgewater 345 kV line into Carver

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Summer Capacity Action Plan

• Summer Capacity Outlook Communications– Transmission Owners

• Master/Local Control Center (M/LCC) Heads

– OP4 Contacts• Utilities, State Regulators, State Emergency Mgmt, FERC & NERC

– NPCC/NERC

• System Readiness– Verified with LCCs Critical Transmission Inspection/Maintenance

Being Performed by Transmission Owners• Review Long Term Outage Schedule

– Review/Monitor Generation Maintenance Progress/Schedules

– Coordinating with Gas Transmission companies– Coordinating with NBSO on SOEP planned outage

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Summer Capacity Action Plan (cont.)

• Voltage Reduction Test– Completed April 28th

• Review of Operating Procedures/Transmission Operating Guides– Emergency Procedures (OP4, OP6, OP7, OP21 & M/LCC2)– Area Transmission Operating Guides

• Emergency Operations Training– ISO & Local Control Center Operators– Generator & Demand Resource Operators

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ISO-NE Daily System Peak Load

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What is this Summer Looking Like?

• Summer 2009 Peak Load Exposure Forecast– Summer 50/50 reference forecast of 27,369 MW. The extreme,

90/10 summer peak load exposure forecast of 29,274 MW• Forecast includes 2009 adjustment for other passive demand

resources (ODRs) ~ 500 MW.– Negative operable capacity margins for all peak load exposure

weeks during the summer months of July and August using both the 50/50 and 90/10 load forecast are currently projected. However, operable capacity margin will change once next month capacity import transactions are known at the end of each month.

– Generator planned outage requests during the peak load exposure weeks during July and August are not being approved per ISO New England Operating Procedure No. 5

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Summer 2009 Operable Capacity Analysis

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August - 09*50/50 Forecast

(Reference Load) MW

August -09*90/10 Forecast (Extreme Load)

MW

Installed Resources(Based on the June Seasonal Claimed Capability (SCC) Report)

30,930 SAME

Net ICAP Purchases 58 SAME

New Generation 200 SAME

Net Resources (excludes delisted resources) 31,188 SAME

Assumed Outages** 2,100 SAME

Generation at Risk Due to Gas Supply (Cold Weather Conditions)

0 SAME

Peak Load Exposure (adjusted for Other Demand Resources) 27,369 29,274 (+1,905)

Reserve Requirement 1,800 SAME

Operable Capacity Required 29,169 31,074 (+1,905)

Operable Capacity Margin*** -80 -1,990 (-1,910)

Note: Operable Capacity Margin for weeks beginning August 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd. Mystic 8 & 9 limited to 1,200 MW. Does not include Settlement Only Resources (approx. 250 MW) and Demand Response Resources (2,073 MW)** Assumed Outages include 2,100 MW of Unplanned Outages, 0 MW of Planned Outages*** Rounded to the nearest ten

Possible Relief Actions Under OP4

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OP 4Action

Number Action Description

Amount Assumed Obtainable Under

OP 4 (MW)

3 Interrupt 2-hour and Profile DR Resources* 219

6 Reduce 30-minute Operating Reserves 600

9 Interrupt 30-minute DR Resources* 725

11 Schedule Emergency Energy Transactions 1,000

12 Interrupt Additional DR Resources*Voltage Reduction requiring > 10 minutes

1,047 82

13 Voltage Reduction requiring < 10 minutes 366

15 Radio and TV Appeal 200

Total 4,239

Note: OP-4 Actions based on a 28,048 MW system load* Total Demand Response MW, including voluntary price response = 2,073 MW (voluntary price response = 82 MW)

Summer 2009 Operable Capacity Analysis 50/50 Forecast (Reference)

Week Beginning, Saturday

Year Month Day

Installed Seasonal Claimed

Capability (SCC)

[Note 1]

Net Interchange

(NYPP, NB, HQ,

Highgate) [Note 2]

Note

New Generation

[Note 3]

De-listed ICAP

resources [Note 4]

Net Capacity [Note 5]

Peak Load Exposure [Note 6]

Operating Reserve

Requirement [Note 7]

Total Known Maintenance

Allowance for

Unplanned Outages [Note 8]

Generation at Risk Due to Gas Supply [Note 9]

Total Capacity

Operable Capacity

Margin (+/-)

Extent of OP 4 Actions That

May be Necessary (OP 4

Actions up to and including)

[Note 10]

(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) 2009 June 6 30,930 2,169 0 290 33,099 27,385 1,800 0 2,800 0 30,299 1,110

13 30,930 2,169 0 290 33,099 27,385 1,800 0 2,800 0 30,299 1,110 20 30,930 2,169 0 290 33,099 27,385 1,800 0 2,800 0 30,299 1,110

27 30,930 58 0 290 30,988 27,377 1,800 0 2,100 0 28,888 (290) Action 62009 July 4 30,930 58 100 290 31,088 27,377 1,800 0 2,100 0 28,988 (190) Action 3

11 30,930 58 100 290 31,088 27,377 1,800 0 2,100 0 28,988 (190) Action 3 18 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 27,377 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (90) Action 3

25 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 27,377 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (90) Action 32009 August 1 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 27,369 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (80) Action 3

8 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 27,369 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (80) Action 3 15 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 27,369 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (80) Action 3 22 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 27,369 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (80) Action 3

29 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 25,128 1,800 500 2,100 0 28,588 1,660 Notes: Please note that the information contained within the Capacity Analysis is a deterministic projection of system conditions which could materialize during any given week of the year

1. Installed Capability per the June 1, 2009 SCC report, Energy Management System units, with an adjustment for capability increases and decreases expected duringthe analysis period (SCC = Seasonal Claimed Capability). The Operable Capability does not reflect possible transmission constraints within the ISO New England system.

2. Net Interchange is based on known capacity-backed (ICAP) contracts. This column combines monthly data, as it becomes available, with preliminary contract totals recorded in the 2009 Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission - CELT Report.

3. New Generation information includes a) generation recently commercial but not yet reflected in the ISO New England SCC Report totals used in the Installed Capability Column, and b)future generation as assumed by ISO-NE System Planning Department. This value is rounded to the nearest hundred.

4. Delisted capacity is only known for the current month. Projections are based on known delisted capacity sales.5. Net Capacity = (SCC) + (Interchange) + (New Generation) - (Delisted ICAP Sold) In this equation, values for SCC, Interchange and De-listed ICAP sold are rounded to the

nearest ten (SCC = Seasonal Claimed Capability).6. Peak Load Exposure per data included in the 2009 CELT Report with an adjustment for Other Demand Resources.7. Operating Reserve Requirement based on first largest contingency plus 1/2 the second largest contingency.8. Allowance for Unplanned Outages includes forced outages and maintenance outages scheduled less than 14 days in advance.9. Generation at Risk due to Gas Supply pertains to gas fired capacity expected to be at risk during cold weather conditions.

10. Relief from certain OP 4 Actions varies depending on system conditions.

ISO-NE 2009 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISJune 5, 2009 - WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL CONTRACTS - 50/50 FORECAST

This analysis is a tabulation of weekly assessments shown in one single table. The information shows the operable capacity situation under assumed conditions for each week.

It is not expected that the system peak will occur every week during June, July, and August.

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Summer 2009 Operable Capacity Analysis 90/10 Forecast (Extreme)

Week Beginning, Saturday

Year Month Day

Installed Seasonal Claimed

Capability (SCC)

[Note 1]

Net Interchange

(NYPP, NB, HQ,

Highgate) [Note 2]

Note

New Generation

[Note 3]

De-listed ICAP

resources [Note 4]

Net Capacity [Note 5]

Peak Load Exposure [Note 6]

Operating Reserve

Requirement [Note 7]

Total Known Maintenance

Allowance for

Unplanned Outages [Note 8]

Generation at Risk Due to Gas Supply [Note 9]

Total Capacity

Operable Capacity

Margin (+/-)

Extent of OP 4 Actions That

May be Necessary (OP 4

Actions up to and including)

[Note 10]

(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) 2009 June 6 30,930 2,169 0 290 33,099 29,290 1,800 0 2,800 0 30,299 (790) Action 6

13 30,930 2,169 0 290 33,099 29,290 1,800 0 2,800 0 30,299 (790) Action 6 20 30,930 2,169 0 290 33,099 29,290 1,800 0 2,800 0 30,299 (790) Action 6

27 30,930 58 0 290 30,988 29,282 1,800 0 2,100 0 28,888 (2,190) Action 112009 July 4 30,930 58 100 290 31,088 29,282 1,800 0 2,100 0 28,988 (2,090) Action 11

11 30,930 58 100 290 31,088 29,282 1,800 0 2,100 0 28,988 (2,090) Action 11 18 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 29,282 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (1,990) Action 11

25 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 29,282 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (1,990) Action 112009 August 1 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 29,274 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (1,990) Action 11

8 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 29,274 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (1,990) Action 11 15 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 29,274 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (1,990) Action 11 22 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 29,274 1,800 0 2,100 0 29,088 (1,990) Action 11

29 30,930 58 200 290 31,188 26,880 1,800 500 2,100 0 28,588 (90) Action 3Notes: Please note that the information contained within the Capacity Analysis is a deterministic projection of system conditions which could materialize during any given week of the year

1. Installed Capability per the June 1, 2009 SCC report, Energy Management System units, with an adjustment for capability increases and decreases expected duringthe analysis period (SCC = Seasonal Claimed Capability). The Operable Capability does not reflect possible transmission constraints within the ISO New England system.

2. Net Interchange is based on known capacity-backed (ICAP) contracts. This column combines monthly data, as it becomes available, with preliminary contract totals recorded in the 2009 Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission - CELT Report.

3. New Generation information includes a) generation recently commercial but not yet reflected in the ISO New England SCC Report totals used in the Installed Capability Column, and b)future generation as assumed by ISO-NE System Planning Department. This value is rounded to the nearest hundred.

4. Delisted capacity is only known for the current month. Projections are based on known delisted capacity sales.5. Net Capacity = (SCC) + (Interchange) + (New Generation) - (Delisted ICAP Sold) In this equation, values for SCC, Interchange and De-listed ICAP sold are rounded to the

nearest ten (SCC = Seasonal Claimed Capability).6. Peak Load Exposure per data included in the 2009 CELT Report with an adjustment for Other Demand Resources.7. Operating Reserve Requirement based on first largest contingency plus 1/2 the second largest contingency.8. Allowance for Unplanned Outages includes forced outages and maintenance outages scheduled less than 14 days in advance.9. Generation at Risk due to Gas Supply pertains to gas fired capacity expected to be at risk during cold weather conditions.

10. Relief from certain OP 4 Actions varies depending on system conditions.

ISO-NE 2009 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISJune 5, 2009 - WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL CONTRACTS - 90/10 FORECAST

This analysis is a tabulation of weekly assessments shown in one single table. The information shows the operable capacity situation under assumed conditions for each week.

It is not expected that the system peak will occur every week during June, July, and August.

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Sable Island Offshore Energy Project Planned Outage

Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) – Planned Outage

• SOEP commenced production in December 1999– Regulatory permits require 10 year re-inspection

• M&N Pipeline posted publically on April 21st information about the SOEP outage planned for August– Start date is early August– Outage is scheduled for approximately 20 days

• M&N Pipeline is encouraging its customers to confirm alternate gas supply arrangements from the other 3 supply points available on the M&N system

– Corridor Resource Supply – via McCully Pipeline interconnect– Portland Natural Gas Transmission System – direct interconnect– Canaport LNG supply – via Brunswick Pipeline interconnect

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M&N Pipeline System Map

SOEP Outages – not the first time

• SOEP and M&N Pipeline scheduled major planned outages last summer– 6/2/08 – 6/7/08– 8/14/08 – 8/20/08

• SOEP has experienced numerous unplanned outages with some outages over multiple days

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Planning Actions by ISO

• ISO has been in close communication with the major interstate Northeast pipeline operators regarding the SOEP outage

• ISO has also had discussions with the SOEP operator ExxonMobil regarding outage and the possibility of moving the SOEP outage

• ISO has been in contact with Repsol the Canaport operator to confirm the production commencement date

• ISO has been in close communication with NBSO regarding the SOEP outage and to ensure maximum NB-NE tie line availability

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Impact of SOEP Outage

• Based on this summer’s New England Operable Capacity Analysis the impact from the loss of all gas only generation supplied from the M&N Pipeline is manageable from the regional (NE system wide) perspective – 50/50 Operable Capacity Analysis is likely to be positive once

August external ICAP transactions are known at the end of July– While 90/10 Operable Capacity Analysis could be slightly

negative once August external ICAP transactions are known at the end of July, in this case any operating reserve deficiencies would be managed using OP4 actions

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Impact of SOEP Outage (cont.)

• Based on this summer’s generation requirements for transmission (GRT) analysis, it is likely that the impact from the loss of all gas only generation supplied from the M&N Pipeline is manageable from a Maine import perspective– The GRT analysis does not address localized concerns that may

arise due to on-going reliability issues in Maine

• Failure of generation to perform at SSCC may lead to greater deficiencies and additional concerns – OP4 actions would be required possibly up to action 12 under

90/10 peak load conditions to maintain reliability

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Questions?