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    FORUM

    Climate change, connectivity and conservation

    decision making: back to basics

    Jenny A. Hodgson*1, Chris D. Thomas2, Brendan A. Wintle3 and Atte Moilanen4

    1Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology, Miall Building, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK; 2Department

    of Biology, University of York, PO Box 373, York YO10 5YW, UK; 3School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Victoria

    3010, Australia; and 4Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, PO

    Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), University of Helsinki, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland

    Summary

    1. The challenge of climate change forces us to re-examine the assumptions underlying conserva-

    tion planning.2. Increasing connectivity has emerged as the most favoured option for conservation in the face of

    climate change.

    3. We argue that the importance of connectivity is being overemphasized: quantifying the benefits

    of connectivity per se is plagued with uncertainty, and connectivity can be co-incidentally improved

    by targeting more concrete metrics: habitat area and habitat quality.

    4. Synthesis and applications. Before investing in connectivity projects, conservation practitioners

    should analyse the benefits expected to arise from increasing connectivity and compare them with

    alternative investments, to ensure as much biodiversity conservation and resilience to climate

    change as possible within their budget. Strategies that we expect to remain robust in the face of

    climate change include maintaining and increasing the area of high quality habitats, prioritizing

    areas that have high environmental heterogeneity and controlling other anthropogenic threatening

    processes.

    Key-words: adaptation, biodiversity, conservation prioritization, habitat quality, landscape

    planning, spatial ecology, speciesarea relationship, uncertainty

    Introduction

    How should we adapt our conservation strategies in the face of

    climate change? Of the multitude of suggested answers, the

    single most repeated suggestion is to increase connectivity

    (Heller & Zavaleta 2009). Connectivity conservation (Crooks

    & Sanjayan 2006) is gathering pace and political support (e.g.Australian Government 2004; IUCN WCPA 2006; Kettunen

    et al. 2007). The idea is to maintain and build connected envi-

    ronments that will enable species to move with the climate.

    Whilst laudable, our concern is that this strategy could cause

    more harm than good if it inadvertently redirects resources

    and attention away from more certain and effective conserva-

    tion actions.

    In this study, we revisit the principles of spatial ecology

    and conservation planning. We summarize how connectivity

    emerges as a complicated function of habitat area, habitat

    quality, the spatial arrangement of habitat and species-spe-

    cific dispersal. We argue that uncertainty associated with

    connectivity is generally higher than uncertainty about habi-

    tat area and quality, and threatening processes such habitat

    destruction. We aim for a more balanced approach to devel-

    oping climate change conservation strategies where connec-

    tivity is treated as a potentially useful tool, but not as an end

    in itself.

    Spatial conservation planning: the basics

    We start from a consideration of individual species; the popu-

    lation theory we discuss applies to any species, but we apply

    this primarily to spatial planning for terrestrial landscapes.

    The regional carrying capacity, and hence the population size

    of a species depends principally on the area of suitable habitat,

    the quality of that habitat and on the spatial arrangement

    of suitable habitat (Fig. 1; Andrewartha & Birch 1954; Mac-

    Arthur & Wilson 1967). Habitat arrangement has multiple

    dimensions, but we consider the main one to be aggregation

    (Fig. 1); how habitat is concentrated in space. We consider

    habitat quality to be a measure of potential population*Correspondence author. E-mail: [email protected]

    Journal of Applied Ecology 2009, 46, 964969 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2009.01695.x

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    growth andor density, and area to be the total area with a

    positive quality. Importantly, each of these three quantities has

    a threshold below which the regional population of the species

    will not persist (Fig. 1) too little habitat area, too low habitat

    quality or excessive dispersion of habitat will all lead to regio-

    nal extinction of the focal species (Fig. 1; With & King 1999;

    Hanski & Ovaskainen 2000). Eventhough area, habitat quality

    and aggregation are abstractions and their exact definitions

    might be debated, there is very good evidence for their effects

    on single species (e.g. Thomas, Thomas & Warren 1992), and

    they are used as thebasis of much conservation planning(Mar-

    gules & Pressey 2000; Moilanen & Wintle 2006).

    Defining area, quality and aggregation for multiple species

    simultaneously is not straightforward because the require-ments of species vary. The relationship between species and

    area is most strongly established (MacArthur & Wilson 1967;

    Simberloff 1976a,b). More area generally means more individ-

    uals, more resources and more environmental variation, giving

    opportunities for niche specialization. Quality is a difficult

    notion when considering multiple species, but for practical

    purposes can be described in terms of freedom from anthropo-

    genic degradation, disturbance, pollution, etc. Influences of

    habitat aggregation and isolation on diversity are seen for

    many communities (e.g. MacArthur & Wilson 1967; Simberl-

    off 1976b; Hanski 1998), but differences among species in their

    habitat requirements and dispersal characteristics mean thatthere is no universal relationship.

    Connectivity and uncertainty

    Connectivity is seen as something that should be accounted

    for in conservation planning (Margules & Pressey 2000;

    McCarthy, Thompson & Possingham 2005; Moilanen et al.

    2005), but there are numerous overlapping definitions

    (Tischendorf & Fahrig 2000; Moilanen & Hanski 2001;

    Goodwin 2003; Fagan & Calabrese 2006). Broadly, func-

    tional connectivity estimates the actual or potential rate of

    immigration into a point, cell, or patch on the landscape

    (Hanski 1998; Tischendorf & Fahrig 2000), and thus depends

    on several attributes of the species, as well as the interaction

    between the species and the landscape (Fig 2). As a result,

    most connectivity measures subsume influences of habitat

    area, quality and spatial aggregation, and some also include

    information about heterogeneities in the non-habitat (Fig. 2).

    We argue that uncertainties in the estimation and effects of

    connectivity make it potentially inefficient as a primary conser-

    vation metric. Conservation planning is plagued with uncer-tainties (Regan, Colyvan & Burgman 2001). Uncertainty

    about area and quality derive from uncertainty about which

    environmental and biotic factors explain the local carrying

    capacity for a given species (Elith, Burgman & Regan 2002).

    Uncertainty about the functional connectivity of the species

    automatically includes uncertainties relating to area, quality

    and habitat pattern because functional connectivity depends

    partly on the distribution and quality of habitats in the land-

    scape (Fig. 2). Additional uncertainties about the measurement

    of connectivity include: species-specific influences of distance

    on dispersal; tails of dispersal distributions, which are notori-

    ously difficult to estimate; effects of source and target habitatquality on emigration and immigration; how dispersing indi-

    viduals search for habitat; how movement behaviour is

    affected by the spatial structure of non-habitat, and the influ-

    ence of spatially correlated environmental stochasticity on

    population-dynamical processes (Moilanen & Nieminen

    2002). By combining all of these, uncertainty about measuring

    and predicting connectivity is always higher than uncertainty

    about the constituent factors that contribute to connectivity.

    Not only is the measurement of connectivity uncertain, but

    so are its effects on long-term expected population size. Total

    carrying capacity always steadily increases with increasing

    habitat area and quality, but does not do so with increasing

    habitat aggregation (Fig. 1bd) or increasing dispersal, theother components of connectivity. There is only a relatively

    narrow window at intermediate levels of habitat aggregation

    where increased aggregation makes a major difference to

    expected population size (because once habitats are close

    enough to be colonized, further benefits of aggregating habitat

    or increasing dispersal are diminished). Thus, increasing area

    and quality are more certain to increase population size than

    are increases in aggregation and dispersal, unless isolation is

    already known to be the main constraint for a particular

    species and landscape.

    As uncertainties about connectivity tend to be high, and

    increases in habitat quantity and quality coincidentallyimprove connectivity, we conclude one should generally

    (a) (b)

    (c) (d)

    Fig. 1. Fundamental variables of spatial population biology. (a)

    Habitat area, habitat quality and habitat aggregation (see text for

    definitions) are independent axes that all affect regional population

    size (they also affect functional connectivity, see Fig. 2). (bd) For

    each factor, there is a threshold below which the regional popula-

    tion is unable to persist. Solid lines indicate potential carrying

    capacity, whilst dashed lines denote the long-term expected popula-

    tion size.

    Climate, connectivity and conservation 965

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    provide higher weight in decision-making to actions that

    increase area and quality. Theoretically, we know that popula-

    tions will sometimes benefit more from a small, well-connected

    piece of habitat than a larger, more isolated one, but the rela-

    tive uncertainties and the probability of worse-than-expectedoutcomes should also affect our decision making. From a deci-

    sion theoretic perspective, when faced with two options that

    convey similar expected (mean) returns, one should choose

    the option with the lowest variance of expected outcome to

    maximize the probability of achieving ones conservation goal

    (e.g. Ben-Haim 2001).

    We are particularly concerned that in a planning process,

    people who want to release areas from conservation, e.g. for

    development, could actually exploit the profusion of connec-

    tivity measures (Kindlmann & Burel 2008) to choose one that

    works for them (Walker et al. 2009). For example, restored

    corridors, stepping stones or softening of the anthropogenic

    matrix will cause increases in some connectivity measures.

    Depending on the connectivity metric used, a large percentage

    increase in connectivity could be used to argue that a large

    percentage decrease in habitat area is acceptable allowing a

    development to proceed. Loss of habitat implies certain and

    immediate decreases in population sizes, whereas compensat-

    ing long-term benefits of additional connectivity might be lar-

    gely unknown and possibly small (Falcy & Estades 2007).

    Notwithstanding these misgivings, the functional connectiv-

    ity of landscapes applied to single species is a very useful con-

    cept in appropriate circumstances, when the constraints on a

    particular species are known. But, ultimately, conservation is a

    multi-species enterprise. In this context, various measures ofstructural connectivity have been proposed, that generalize

    the connectivity of vegetation types without reference to partic-

    ular species. Combining species responses in this way magni-

    fies uncertainty because multi-species responses are not a

    simple function of each individual species response. There is

    an attractive simplicity to increasing structural connectivity formulti-species conservation, but the scientific basis for such a

    strategy is largely absent and the applicability of this concept

    under climate change is also highly uncertain. The trade-off

    between increased structural connectivity per se and increased

    protection for existing natural or semi-natural habitats are

    always very difficult to calculate. However, maintaining and

    increasing the area of natural or semi-natural habitats will add

    useful habitat area for many species and, as described above,

    will usually coincidentally increase connectivity.

    The new world order

    So far, our discussion has been most relevant to situations

    where the regional distributions of species can be assumed to

    be relatively stationary. Given climate change and the lagged

    responses of species (Mene ndez et al. 2006), dynamic change

    will be the norm for the foreseeable future. At large scales there

    are shifts to higher latitudes and elevations (Hickling et al.

    2006; Parmesan 2006; IPCC 2007) andmovements along mois-

    ture gradients, and at smaller scales there are shifts in preferred

    microclimates and changes to the nature of the vegetation that

    constitutes habitat (Thomas et al. 2001; Davies et al. 2006).

    These changes undermine three common presumptions in

    conservation planning. First, we often presume that vegetation

    type can be used as a reasonable proxy for habitat availabilityfor one or many species. Quaternary evidence shows that

    Habitat

    What the

    organism needs

    (niche)

    defines

    Area Quality Aggregation

    (or other pattern)

    Dispersal

    mechanism, etc.

    Potential forbarriers or

    conduits in non

    habitat

    Connectivity (proxy for

    immigration rates)

    Vital rates and

    carrying capacity

    Population size, spatial distribution and

    persistence probability

    is quantified in terms of

    Fig.2. A schematic of the place of (func-tional) connectivity in spatial ecology and

    conservation. Functional connectivity is a

    quantity that always incorporates some

    aspect of spatial pattern, but it usually also

    includes information about the amount and

    quality of habitats and factors influencing

    dispersal behaviour and success.

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    species exhibit individualistic responses to climate change, and

    vegetation types change with the climate (Williams, Shuman &

    Webb 2001), so that the community classification schemes we

    now use to describe vegetation types will become redundant in

    the long term. Secondly, we assume that structural connectiv-

    ity, measured on the basis of land cover types, is a reasonableproxy for functional connectivity of multiple species. As with

    the first assumption, this will become less reasonable the more

    climate change advances and changes communities.

    Thirdly, we commonly assume that protecting locations

    with the most populations of a species will maximize the

    chances of persistence in both the short- and long-term sur-

    vival. Under climate change, prioritizing only existing core

    populations carries the danger of promoting short-term per-

    sistence in current strongholds at the expense of long-term

    survival; but prioritizing only marginal populations that are

    predicted to expand is risky because of massive uncertainties

    about the true consequences of climate change. In essence

    we are required to deal with trade-offs through time, as well

    as continuing to pay attention to trade-offs in space and

    trade-offs between species. We have to address the addi-

    tional question How much short-term conservation success

    should we forgo in order in increase the long-term probabil-

    ity of achieving our targets? Perhaps not much, as benefits

    that are to materialize a long time in the future may have a

    tendency of disappearing on the way (Walker et al. 2009).

    Such considerations need to be incorporated within popula-

    tion viability analyses and decision frameworks, which can

    no longer assume long-term stasis in environmental condi-

    tions.

    Reasons to be cheerful

    It is easy to be overwhelmed by the complexity and uncertainty

    involved in conservation planning for a world with climate

    change. There is a huge desire to do something but what

    exactly is it that we should do? A vast number of suggestions

    have been made, and there is limited direct evidence to assess

    which of these is likely to be most effective (Heller & Zavaleta

    2009). So, can we step back and ask if any principles hold true

    with or without climate change, and thereby which conserva-

    tion strategies are most likely to be robust?

    One such principle is that increasing numbers of species areassociated with increasing area (Connor & McCoy 1979; Guil-

    haumon et al. 2008). But how much area is enough? Effective

    conservation requires sufficient habitat where a species cur-

    rently occurs and additional locations that will support popu-

    lations whilst the distribution is changing, until it reaches a

    new equilibrium (assuming the climate does; Araujo et al.

    2004). Any previously used target [e.g. the 10% terrestrial pro-

    tected area target (IUCN 2004)] will deliver lower conservation

    outcomes under climate change than originally hoped. There-

    fore, renewed effort and additional funding to conserve extra

    land is warranted. Locations that have low human impacts

    should remain good for many species, even if the identities of

    those species change. Maintaining sites of high value to biodi-

    versity should be feasible, but management that attempts to

    retain a particular community composition may be expensive

    and ultimately doomed to failure.

    A second generalization is that environmental heterogeneity

    provides opportunities for populations to survive different

    extremes by shifting between different types of vegetation,

    soils, aspects or elevations (Thomas et al. 2001; Davies et al.2006). Species diversity and endemism are also increased in

    regions with high topographic and habitat diversity (e.g. Sim-

    berloff 1976a), especially where there are steep elevation and

    climatic gradients (Ohlemu ller et al. 2008). Our second mes-

    sage is that focussing efforts on regions with high existing envi-

    ronmental heterogeneity is likely to be a robust strategy. In a

    sense, we are identifying the importance of a different kind of

    connectivity that between cooler and warmer (and drier and

    moister), habitats rather than between currently similar habitats.

    Further research is needed to quantify the benefit of habitat

    diversity, especially when there might be a trade-off between this

    and theaggregation of existing habitat for many species.

    Thirdly, the majority of small-range terrestrial species are

    clustered into a small percentage of the land surface (centres of

    endemismareas of high irreplaceability, cf. Wilson, Carwar-

    dine & Possingham 2009), many of which are mountain

    ranges. A high percentage of thespecies threatened with extinc-

    tion from climate change are found in such locations: they are

    expected to show range retractions within the regions where

    they currently occur, and are unlikely to achieve long distance

    colonization of other parts of the world (Midgley et al. 2002;

    Williams, Bolitho, & Fox 2003; Thomas et al. 2004; Malcolm

    et al. 2006; Ohlemu ller et al. 2008).So, our third message is that

    concentration of conservation effort in centres of endemism

    remains a valid strategy.Fourthly, almost all threatened species are negatively

    impacted by multiple factors. In some instances, mitigating

    known threats other than climate change may be sufficient to

    permit a population to persist, even if the local climate has

    deteriorated. When this strategy cannot ensure persistence in

    its own right, mitigating known threats should be regarded as

    an essential first step in making populations robust to climate

    change. We recommend dealing with known (stoppable)

    threats for which there are known solutions before addressing

    uncertain andor unstoppable threats with less certain or less

    feasible solutions (Pressey et al. 2007; Wilson et al. 2007).

    These four principles, increasing protected area, maintain-ing and in some cases increasing environmental heterogeneity,

    concentrating efforts in centres of endemism, and reducing

    other pressures are likely to be beneficial and robust, with or

    without climate change. However, these are rules of thumb,

    and there is great potential for improved planning at regional

    scales with improved adaptive decision-making methods.

    Importantly, decision-making tools need to weight strategies

    according to their relative costs, expected benefits and the

    uncertainty in achieving that benefit (Burgman, Lindenmayer

    & Elith 2005; McDonald-Madden, Baxter & Possingham

    2008). Ecological research needs to contribute by quantifying

    benefits (including the benefits of connectivity and the bene-

    fits of habitat heterogeneity) in terms of a common currency,

    e.g. long-term species persistence, and by quantifying

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    uncertainty. Research is required in the development of deci-

    sion frameworks (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2008) to integrate

    and visualize the costs and benefits, and to ensure that meth-

    ods are easy to adapt and update as new information

    becomes available.

    Conclusion

    In summary, we think that the political and ecological reality

    of climate change should prompt us to reassess which ideas to

    keep, which to modify and which to abandon (Table 1). Con-

    nectivity usefully reminds people that excessive isolation is a

    threat to populations, but, as increased attention is paid to the

    spatial arrangement of habitats and dispersal, morefundamen-

    tal issues may be overlooked (Fig. 1; Table 1). Whilst climate

    change adds extra challenges, potential damage can still be

    alleviated by removing other sources of threat. Land conver-

    sion and land-use change leading to habitat loss is still the most

    cited threat to currently endangered species, and the most

    straightforward way to tackle this is to maintain and restore

    larger areas of natural habitat. Species will not be able to sur-

    vive where they are or shift their distributions to new climati-

    cally suitable areas unless there are sufficient habitats for them,

    and it should be remembered that increasing habitat area is an

    effective way of increasing connectivity. Furthermore, con-

    serving habitats will be beneficial even if the particular species

    found in an area are graduallyreplaced by others as the climate

    changes. The conservation of high quality existing habitats

    should therefore remain the primary focus of conservation

    efforts to maintain biodiversity.

    Acknowledgements

    Thanks to two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped to improve the

    manuscript. J.H. and C.D.T. were supported by Natural England. B.W. was

    supported by the Australian ResearchCouncil (DP0774288)and the Australian

    Governments Commonwealth Environment Research Facility program. A.M.

    was supported by the Academy of Finland, Finnish Center of Excellence Pro-

    gramme2006-2011, grant213457.

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    Table1. Suggested re-assessment of basic ideas in conservation planning, assuming climate change

    Ideas to keep Ideas to modify and develop Ideas that hold us back

    More total area is beneficial; including

    expanding present conservation areas

    Biodiversity hotspotscentres of endemismshould be prioritized

    Environmentalhabitat heterogeneity

    facilitates diversity and persistence

    Human activities that diminish diversity

    should be minimized or reversed

    The time frame for conservation planning (the

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    and incorporation of environmentalchange in population viability assessment)

    The role of connectivity, including trade-offs

    between connecting landscapes and other

    conservation actions

    Attempting to maintain existing or

    past community composition

    Using permanently fixed conservationtargets (e.g. 10% terrestrial area target)

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    Climate, connectivity and conservation 969

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    FORUM

    Connectivity, dispersal behaviour and conservation

    under climate change: a response to Hodgson et al.

    Veronica A. J. Doerr1,2*, Tom Barrett3 and Erik D. Doerr1,2

    1CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 284, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia; 2Research School of Biology, Australian

    National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; and 3New South Wales Department of Environment, Climate

    Change & Water, PO Box 494, Armidale NSW 2350, Australia

    Summary

    1. Hodgson et al. [Journal of Applied Ecology 46 (2009) 964] argue that connectivity is complex and

    uncertain, that it can be improved incidentally by increasing habitat extent, and that connectivity

    conservation is unlikely to be effective under climate change.2. We believe that they have overlooked recent research on dispersal behaviour and structural con-

    nectivity, which has improved our understanding of functional connectivity and revealed that it will

    not necessarily increase with habitat extent.

    3. New modelling techniques including least-cost path models incorporate this more detailed

    understanding of connectivity into conservation planning, facilitating the true aim of connectivity

    conservation to ensure appropriate interactions between habitat extent, quality and connectivity.

    4. Synthesis and applications. Advances in behavioural research and modelling techniques allow us

    to manage structural connectivity with as much certainty as we manage extent and quality of habi-

    tat. Successful landscape conservation to address both current threats and future climate change

    must manage these three elements in concert.

    Key-words: aggregation, behavioural ecology, connectivity conservation, corridor, fragmen-tation, gap-crossing, metapopulation, population viability, range shift, stepping stone

    Introduction

    For most of the worlds ecosystems, human-induced habitat

    loss, degradation and fragmentation are primary causes of

    declines in biodiversity (Fahrig 2003; Lindenmayer & Fischer

    2006). Furthermore, climate change is predicted to interact

    with and intensify the effects of these problems. Connectivity

    conservation has emerged as an overarching solution with

    considerable political and popular support (Crooks & Sanja-

    yan 2006). However, Hodgson et al. (2009) highlight the dan-

    gers of investing in connectivity per se, and argue that other

    strategies may provide better protection for species in a chang-

    ing climate.

    We wholeheartedly agree with Hodgson et al. that connec-

    tivity should not be the sole focus of conservation actions, and

    that conservation investments should be based on analysis of

    their likely benefits. Yet Hodgson et al. suggest that connectiv-

    ity conservation is never likely to be a robust strategy, and here

    we disagree. Specifically, Hodgson et al. argue that there is too

    much uncertainty surrounding connectivity, that connectivity

    is primarily a result of habitat aggregation, and it can coinci-

    dentally be improved by increasing habitat extent. They also

    suggest that connectivity conservation sacrifices long-term

    conservation success under a changing climate in favour of

    short-term gains. In this response, we suggest that Hodgson

    et al. have overlooked recent advances in our understanding of

    connectivity, particularly arising from research on dispersal

    behaviour. These advances provide a clearer distinction

    between structural and functional connectivity and greater cer-

    tainty regarding the effects of structural connectivity. They also

    bring a new awareness that increases in habitat extent alone

    will not necessarily increase functional connectivity. In addi-

    tion, we believe that Hodgson et al. have misinterpreted con-

    nectivity conservation, which carries a specific meaning that

    involves more than just conserving structural connectivity, and

    can provide long-term solutions to many of the threats associ-

    ated with climate change including those highlighted by Hodg-

    son et al. Finally, we suggest that the differences in our

    perspectives may partly result from differences in the scales at

    which empirical research and conservation planning are con-

    ducted. Fortunately, new modelling techniques are allowing us*Correspondence author. E-mail: [email protected]

    Journal of Applied Ecology 2011, 48, 143147 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01899.x

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    to move beyond simple measures of aggregation to incorporate

    a more detailed behavioural understanding of connectivity into

    conservation planning, despite differences in scale.

    Dispersal behaviour and structural

    connectivity

    The intent of connectivity is to facilitate dispersal of individu-

    als. Thus, an empirical understanding of connectivity depends

    on understanding animal behaviour, particularly movement

    and dispersal behaviour, to reveal what parts of landscapes

    individuals are willing to move through and why (Lima & Zoll-

    ner 1996; Chetkiewicz, Clair & Boyce 2006). The value of

    behavioural research for conservation has been debated

    (Blumstein & Fernandez-Juricic 2004; Caro 2007), and thus it

    is unsurprising if conservation biologists are not familiar with

    the movement behaviour literature, very little of which existed

    during early discussions about connectivity. Yet movement

    behaviour is a rapidly growing field (Nathan 2008), with exten-

    sive empirical analyses and emerging theories that can provide

    a strong foundation for modelling and conserving connectiv-

    ity.

    When connectivity began to be viewed from a behaviour-

    based perspective, it became a characteristic of the matrix

    between subpopulations (Taylor, Fahrig & With 2006), rather

    than a characteristic of patches or landscapes. Movement

    could be dependent not just on distances between subpopula-

    tions (i.e. aggregation) but on the physical characteristics of

    the matrix itself, particularly the presence of habitat elements

    too small for settlement but which might nonetheless facilitate

    movement. As a result, a much clearer distinction emergedbetween structural and functional connectivity. Structural

    connectivity refers to physical characteristics of the landscape

    between patches of occupied habitat. Functional connectivity

    refers to the degree to which movement of individuals andor

    their genetic material actually occurs, and is influenced by both

    movement potential due to structural connectivity and by local

    subpopulation dynamics (Hilty, Lidicker & Merenlender

    2006).

    Empirical research on movement behaviour has concen-

    trated on revealing what types of structural connectivity pro-

    vide the potential for dispersal movements and thus contribute

    to functional connectivity. A number of studies have shownthat various species use corridors to move through fragmented

    landscapes (Haddad et al. 2003; Haddad & Tewksbury 2005),

    and some have demonstrated the use of simpler landscape ele-

    ments such as scattered trees (Fischer & Lindenmayer 2002;

    Doerr, Doerr & Davies 2010). Research on gap-crossing

    behaviour has been particularly critical, identifying gap dis-

    tances either within corridors or among scattered trees that

    may prevent movements, thus revealing details of structural

    connectivity that contribute to movement potential (St. Clair

    et al. 1998; Grubb & Doherty 1999; Robertson & Radford

    2009). In addition, research on overall movement strategies

    such as foray search is illustrating that distances between

    subpopulations (i.e. aggregation) may have a threshold effect

    rather than a linear effect on movement potential. When

    individuals use a foray-based search strategy, they may have a

    maximum search distance beyond which they will not travel,

    regardless of how much structural connectivity is present in the

    landscape (Conradt, Roper & Thomas 2001; Doerr & Doerr

    2005; Doerr, Doerr & Davies 2010).

    The species-specific nature of behavioural research may beviewed as an impediment to its usefulness for ecosystem con-

    servation, but patterns are emerging which suggest that

    responses to structural connectivity may not be as species-spe-

    cific as was once thought (Haddad et al. 2003; Doerr, Doerr &

    Davies 2010; Gilbert-Norton et al. 2010). Instead, movement

    behaviour may be shaped by the structure of environments

    experienced over evolutionary time, and species in any given

    ecological community with broadly similar life-histories may

    have evolved similar movement behaviours as responses to

    their shared environments (Fahrig 2007). For example, Doerr,

    Doerr & Davies (in press) found that use of scattered trees,

    foray distances, and gap distances crossed were similar among

    five Australian woodland birds despite substantial differences

    in their ecology. Belisle (2005) proposed that travel costs may

    provide one mechanism through which landscapes can exert

    similar evolutionary pressures across species. Thus, theories

    from behavioural ecology such as the marginal value theorem

    could provide the basis for general theories of connectivity,

    allowing us to predict the effects of different types of structural

    connectivity for large suites of species at once (Belisle 2005).

    Conservation certainty

    All of these advances are making structural connectivity a

    much more measurable and manageable concept than Hodg-son et al. suggest. Functional connectivity remains complex

    because it integrates movement potential with the dynamics of

    subpopulations (which is why Hodgson et al. deem it too

    intractable for conservation planning). Yet structural connec-

    tivity contributes significantly to functional connectivity by

    determining movement potential. The resulting effects on pop-

    ulation persistence are also increasingly predictable thanks to

    controlled research in experimental landscapes which is dem-

    onstrating that connected patches experience fewer local

    extinctions than isolated patches (Damschen et al. 2006; Brud-

    vig et al. 2009). Thus, structural connectivity can be directly

    quantified in the landscape, has predictable effects onmovement potential, and is known to contribute to population

    persistence, making it a worthwhile focus for management.

    Unfortunately, Hodgson et al. omit structural connectivity

    from their schematic of the place of connectivity in conserva-

    tion (Hodgson et al., Fig. 2). We have revised their diagram to

    distinguish between structural and functional connectivity and

    depict the relationships between them, as well as relationships

    with the area and quality of habitat suitable for settlement

    (Fig. 1). Structural connectivity is independent of habitat area

    and quality and is what defines habitat for dispersal, just

    as area and quality are what define habitat for settlement.

    Structural connectivity, habitat area and quality interact to

    determine functional connectivity, but they also interact

    to determine subpopulation dynamics and thus the effective

    144 V. A. J. Doerr, T. Barrett & E. D. Doerr

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    population size of the population as a whole. None has a direct

    influence on populations completely independent of the others

    all provide the same degree of conservation certainty because

    their benefits depend on the interactions between them.

    Hodgson et al. also argue we can be relatively certain about

    the positive effects of increasing habitat extent and habitat

    quality often assumed to be accomplished through increasingthe size andor number of protected areas. Yet in highly dis-

    turbed ecosystems, there may be little habitat left outside of

    already existing protected areas. Thus, increasing habitat

    extent and improving habitat quality involves restoring habitat

    in areas where it has been lost to other land uses. Unfortu-

    nately, there are substantial limitations and uncertainties in

    our ability to restore ecosystems. For example, nitrogen

    enrichment via fertilisation reduces plant diversity as well as

    the stability of ecosystems worldwide (McIntyre 2008; Bai

    et al. 2010). These effects can last long after fertilisation has

    ceased, inhibiting full recovery of the ecosystem despite resto-

    ration attempts (Munro et al. 2009). It is also reasonable to

    argue that habitat quality will often be more species-specific

    than structural connectivity, as habitat for settlement must

    provide for many more of a species needs than habitat for

    dispersal (Haddad & Tewksbury 2005; Doerr, Doerr & Davies

    2010). Restoring habitat for settlement, either for a single

    species or particularly for an entire community, may thus be

    more complex and uncertain than restoring habitat for

    dispersal (i.e. increasing structural connectivity).Finally, Hodgson et al. argue that increasing habitat extent

    will coincidentally improve connectivity by increasing aggrega-

    tion and thus reducing distances between patches. However,

    behavioural research suggests that reducing inter-patch

    distances without providing structural connectivity will only

    be beneficial once patches become close enough to allow

    gap-crossing between them. That distance may be as little as

    60100 m (unlikely to be achieved by most efforts to increase

    habitat extent), as many species are unwilling to cross gaps any

    larger (Desrochers & Hannon 1997; Robertson & Radford

    2009; Doerr, Doerr & Davies 2010). Individuals can traverse

    much greater distances between habitat patches if structural

    connectivity is present, but the existence of foray-based search

    means that increases in aggregation may only be beneficial

    if distances between patches can be reduced below a critical

    foray distance threshold, which may only be 12 km (Doerr,

    Doerr & Davies 2010, in press). Thus, the benefits of reducing

    aggregation per se (as opposed to managing it in concert with

    structural connectivity) are risky because they are not com-

    mensurate with effort.

    Connectivity conservation is more than just

    conserving connectivity

    Hodgson et al. interpret connectivity conservation as the effortto increase structural connectivity with the primary purpose of

    enabling species range shifts due to climate change. However,

    as highlighted above, structural connectivity interacts with

    other aspects of the landscape and thus is not necessarily the

    sole or most important aspect to improve in every landscape.

    Connectivity conservation acknowledges this, and has a very

    specific meaning in the literature (IUCN WCPA 2006; Wor-

    boys 2010), much like systematic conservation planning has a

    specific meaning and doesnt merely refer to taking a system-

    atic approach to planning conservation actions (Margules &

    Pressey 2000). As a result, connectivity conservation is broader

    than Hodgson et al.s interpretation.Connectivity conservation can be defined as coordinated

    efforts to achieve metapopulation viability across a range of

    spatial scales, which involves evaluating and improving the

    interactions between habitatarea, habitat quality and structural

    connectivity (Crooks & Sanjayan 2006; Worboys 2010). There

    is no overarching rule about which action is always more effec-

    tive this depends on the existing conditions in a given land-

    scape. Connectivity conservation thus aims to develop flexible

    solutions, tailored to the different needs of different landscapes.

    This may involve protecting large continuous areas of existing

    habitat, but may also involve protecting or increasing connec-

    tions between multiple small discontinuous areas of habitat

    where that is all that remains. The preference of Hodgson et al.

    to focus on habitat area and habitat quality can thus be

    What the organismneeds for survival and

    reproduction

    What the organismneeds for dispersal

    Habitat for settlement Habitat for dispersal

    DefinesDefines

    Is quantified in terms of

    Is quantified in terms of

    Structural connectivity

    Which is the interaction between

    Area Quality

    Landscape characteristicsbetween areas of habitat

    for settlement

    Distance between areas ofhabitat for settlement

    Potential rates of dispersalbetween subpopulations

    Which determine

    Functional connectivity (actual rates of dispersal)and

    subpopulation size and dynamics

    Which interact to determine

    Effective population size, spatial distributionand persistence probability

    Which are integrated over multiplesubpopulations to determine

    Fig. 1. A schematic illustrating the role of both structural and func-

    tional connectivity in spatial ecology and conservation (revised from

    Fig. 2 in Hodgson et al. (2009)). Functional connectivity results from

    interactions between the amount and quality of habitat suitable forsettlement as well as the influence of the rest of the landscape (i.e.

    structural connectivity) on the potential for dispersal. Structural con-

    nectivity is therefore a vital component of functional connectivity that

    is tractableto model andmanage.

    Connectivity and dispersal behaviour 145

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    encompassed by connectivity conservation wherever these

    actions are deemed to provide the greatest benefits.

    Finally, the ultimate purpose of connectivity conservation is

    not simply to facilitate range shifts, but to increase the resil-

    ience of populations to the variety of threats caused by or

    intensified by climate change. Under connectivity conserva-tion, structural connectivity is desired where it links multiple

    subpopulations via dispersal, allowing subpopulations to func-

    tion collectively as one larger, more resilient population. These

    principles can be applied at any scale, not just scales that might

    be relevant for possible range shifts under climate change

    (Opdam & Wascher 2004). Thus, connectivity conservation

    can be used to reduce pressures other than climate change, can

    be applied to increase viability of populations in centres of

    endemism, and can concentrate on areas of high environmen-

    tal heterogeneity all of which are principles that Hodgson

    et al. suggest will underlie robust conservation strategies under

    climate change.

    Moving beyond aggregation in large-scale

    conservation planning models

    Conservation modellers may still be unsure how to incorporate

    advances in our understandingof connectivity and connectivity

    conservation due to the different scales at which behavioural

    research and conservation planning are usually conducted.

    Conservation planning often occurs at very large scales

    regions to global scales. Yet a behavioural understanding of

    connectivity is shaped at scales relevant to movement of indi-

    viduals local to landscape scales. The difficulty is that incor-

    porating small-scale detail in large-scale models is oftendeemed computationally intractable. Fortunately, there are

    promising new advances that can model connectivityover large

    spatial scales in ways that align more closely with a behaviour-

    based view of connectivity.

    First, we have already noted that the types of structural con-

    nectivity that facilitate dispersal movements are not necessarily

    species-specific. Thus, models may only need to incorporate

    general principles (such as threshold distances between habitat

    patches) rather than behavioural detail specific to many differ-

    ent species. Another way in which conservation planning mod-

    els can incorporate a tractable amount of behavioural detail is

    through the use of least-cost path modelling and state-spacemodelling. These new types of models simultaneously explore

    behavioural and landscape parameters to identify which land-

    scape details most need to be incorporated into large-scale

    models (Chetkiewicz, Clair & Boyce 2006; Kadoya 2009),

    which can then be kept relatively simple by modelling only the

    few most relevant small-scale parameters. Remaining compu-

    tational challenges can often be overcome by decreasing the

    sizes of grid cells only to a relevant scale. Further behavioural

    detail can then be incorporated by modelling resistance of grid

    cells that have different compositions (McRae & Beier 2007).

    One example of the success of these new approaches comes

    from our own work, in which data on gap-crossing distances

    (Doerr, Doerr & Davies 2010) were used to define the maxi-

    mum distance individuals will move through non-habitat, and

    data on foray-based search behaviour and foray distances

    (Doerr & Doerr 2005; Doerr, Doerr & Davies 2010) were used

    to define the maximum distance individuals will move through

    structural connectivity, modelled as suboptimal habitat. Using

    modern satellite imagery, suboptimal habitat could be mapped

    at a fine scale of resolution to detect very small elements ofstructural connectivity known to support dispersal move-

    ments, such as single trees. Fine-scale habitat mapping and

    simplified behavioural rules were then modelled together using

    the least-cost path approach (Drielsma, Manion & Ferrier

    2007), with habitat quality as a surrogate for movement cost.

    This modelling approach simultaneously evaluates habitat

    area, quality and structural connectivity, identifying where

    these elements currently exist in concert in the landscape versus

    where they are unable to interact due to deficiencies in one or

    more elements (Barrett et al. 2010). This gives conservation

    planners the ability to make practical recommendations that

    maximise the likelihood that actions at a local scale will con-

    tribute to population viability and resilience at large scales

    (Barrett et al. 2010). These models are currently being used to

    guide conservation planning decisions in several regions of

    New South Wales, Australia.

    Reasons to be cheerful indeed!

    As Hodgson et al. suggest, it is easy to be overwhelmed by the

    challenges of conservation under climate change. It is worth-

    while returning to basic principles, focusing on actions that will

    be cost-effective and that will address current threats as well as

    those anticipated due to climate change. Fortunately, connec-

    tivity conservation provides such an approach by focusing onhabitat area, quality, and structural connectivity as indepen-

    dent attributes that must all work together to support viable,

    resilient populations. Thanks to a growing body of behavioural

    research, we can reliably identify situations in which fostering

    structural connectivity in the matrix is likely to yield positive

    benefits for populations. We can also use behavioural informa-

    tion to model connectivity alongside habitat extent and quality

    and thus tailor management to specific landscapes. Ultimately,

    these new techniques ensure that large-scale conservation plan-

    ning can take advantage of up-to-date connectivity knowledge

    to truly provide evidence-based conservation guidance.

    Acknowledgements

    Thanks to members of the Great Eastern Ranges Initiative, David Westcott,

    Paul Sunnucks, Sasha Pavlova, and Colleen Cassady St. Clair for discussions

    that shapedthese ideas.The manuscript wasgreatly improvedby thecomments

    of Richard Fuller, Sue McIntyre, Dan Lunney, Vicki Logan, and five anony-

    mous reviewers.

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    Received16 June 2010; accepted20 October2010

    HandlingEditor: Morten Frederiksen

    Connectivity and dispersal behaviour 147

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    FORUM

    Habitat area, quality and connectivity: striking the

    balance for efficient conservation

    Jenny A. Hodgson1*, Atte Moilanen2, Brendan A. Wintle3 and Chris D. Thomas1

    1Department of Biology Area 18, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK; 2Metapopulation Research Group,

    Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, PO Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), FI-00014, Finland; and 3School

    of Botany, University of Melbourne, Vic., 3010, Australia

    Summary

    1. Population viability can depend on habitat area, habitat quality, the spatial arrangement of habi-

    tats (aggregations and connections) and the properties of the intervening non-breeding (matrix)

    land. Hodgson et al. [Journal of Applied Ecology 46 (2009) 964] and Doerr, Barrett & Doerr (Journalof Applied Ecology, 2011) disagree on the relative importance of these landscape attributes in

    enabling species to persist and change their distributions in response to climate change.

    2. A brief review of published evidence suggests that variations in habitat area and quality have big-

    ger effects than variations in spatial arrangement of habitats or properties of the intervening land.

    Even if structural features in the matrix have a measurable effect on dispersal rates, this does not

    necessarily lead to significant increases in population viability.

    3. Large and high-quality habitats provide source populations and locations for colonisation, so

    they are the main determinants of the capacity of species to shift their distributions in response to

    climate change because populations must be established successively in each new region.

    4. Synthesis and applications. Retaining as much high quality natural and semi-natural habitat as

    possible should remain the key focus for conservation, especially during a period of climate change.Key-words: aggregation, climate change, conservation planning, corridor, landscape, matrix,

    uncertainty

    Introduction

    Hodgson et al. (2009) noted that habitat area, quality, and

    aggregation were key components of landscape-scale conserva-

    tion, and that prioritising habitat area and quality would be a

    robust way to facilitate connectivity and the persistence of bio-

    diversity in the face of climate change. Doerr, Barrett & Doerr

    (2011) suggest that structural features to facilitate dispersal in

    non-breeding habitat are valuable targets in themselves, and

    can be measured with certainty equal to that of area, quality,

    and aggregation. They further suggest that we misunderstood

    the term connectivity conservation. In this reply to the Forum

    by Doerr, Barrett & Doerr in this issue, we begin by summaris-

    ing where we are in agreement. We then present our case that

    Doerr, Barrett & Doerr, in focussing narrowly on non-habitat

    structural features, have ignored the bigger picture of relative

    priorities for conservation under climate change.

    Hodgson et al. (2009) and Doerr, Barrett & Doerr (2011)

    present different ways of approaching the same overall goal;

    limiting extinctions and maintaining functioning ecosystems.

    Because of the complexities of ecology and human impacts in

    different regions, no single prescription for conservation will

    work everywhere. So, we agree with Doerr, Barrett & Doerr

    (2011) that conservation strategies need to be tailored to the

    landscape. We also fundamentally agree about which factors

    affect the persistence of populations and metapopulations (Do-

    err, Barrett & Doerrs Fig. 1 essentially expands our boxes for

    dispersal mechanism and potential for barriers or conduits in

    non habitat). However, we disagree about the relative impor-

    tance of the various factors: habitat area, habitat quality, the

    spatial arrangement of habitats (aggregations and connections)

    and the properties of the intervening non-breeding (matrix)

    land. Hence, we providehere evidence in support of our assess-

    ment of the relative importance of these landscape attributes.

    Relative importance of landscape attributes

    H A B I T A T A R E A

    Successful reproduction is confined to natural andsemi-natural habitats for the majority of terrestrial species.*Correspondence author. E-mail: [email protected]

    Journal of Applied Ecology 2011, 48, 148152 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01919.x

    2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology 2010 British Ecological Society

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    In the context of climate change, multi-generational range

    shifts are facilitated initially by large habitat areas that

    support large source populations, by substantial intervening

    habitat areas to support breeding and generate propagules

    en route, and by high habitat availability within target

    regions to ensure eventual persistence (Table 1). Maximis-ing area is also likely to increase diversity via increased

    habitat heterogeneity. Contrary to Doerr, Barrett & Doerr

    (2011), we contend that there is generally a large amount

    of natural or semi-natural habitat with insufficient protec-

    tion. Tropical forest, for example, is converted to other

    land uses at around 05% annually (FAO 2005). It is usu-

    ally much more effective and cheaper to retain what is still

    present than to attempt to recreate it.

    H A B I T A T Q U A L I T Y

    Quality improves persistence by increasing population

    growth, resulting in larger propagule numbers, increased

    likelihood of colonisation, and higher population growth

    rates following colonisation. Many aspects of habitat qual-

    ity are, as Doerr, Barrett & Doerr (2011) suggest, species-

    specific and difficult to control. However, some aspects of

    quality affect many species similarly, such as nutrient pol-

    lution, the spread of invasive species or major habitat dis-

    turbances. Much of the worlds biomes are now partly or

    substantially altered by, for example, selective logging, par-

    tial fertilisation of grasslands, drainage of wetlands, and

    elimination of fire or large mammals. Preventing further

    degradation and increasing the quality of already-degraded

    areas can generate extremely large differences in populationdensities (e.g. Table 1) and, therefore, colonisation and

    population growth, including range expansion.

    S P A T I A L A R R A N G E M E N T O F H A B I T A T S

    The locations of remaining habitat fragments in landscapes

    are known to be important to long-term population persis-

    tence (Hanski & Ovaskainen 2000), but the size of this effect

    is smaller than the effects of quantity and quality (Table 1),

    principally because the production of new individuals takes

    place within habitats, regardless of their location (Ovaskai-

    nen 2002). Habitat aggregation generally increases thechance of a propagule landing in suitable habitat, and there-

    fore of a patch of habitat being colonisedoccupied, but it

    can only compensate a little for deficiencies in quantity and

    quality (Table 1). Under climate change, the benefit of aggre-

    gation may be less certain because aggregating remaining

    habitat within a few regions may leave dispersal barriers that

    will eventually need to be bridged. When suitable habitat is a

    very low proportion of the landscape, there may be a trade-

    off between maximising aggregation and reducing the largest

    dispersal barriers. There is evidence that corridors may

    increase dispersal rates between patches to some extent

    (Table 1), but an increase in dispersal per se is not direct evi-

    dence of an increase in population viability.

    N O N - B R E E D I N G H A B I T A T ( O R T H E M A T R I X )

    Interventions in the matrix could contribute to population via-

    bility by overcoming behavioural barriers to crossing certain

    boundaries or land-cover types, or by reducing dispersal mor-

    tality. Managing the matrix can result in modest increases indispersal between nearby habitat patches (by ca. 25%,

    Table 1). However, we could find no robust evidence that

    matrix condition alters long-distance, multi-generational range

    changes. The likelihood of leaving an individuals natal habitat

    patch may increase if the intervening matrix is favourable, but

    movements typically become faster and straighter when an

    individual is in a hostile matrix environment, and this leads to

    much longer realised dispersal distances (Ovaskainen et al.

    2008; Zheng, Pennanen & Ovaskainen 2009). The longest dis-

    persal distances are the most important for maintaining genetic

    diversity and for range expansions under climate change (Neu-

    bert & Caswell 2000; Trakhtenbrot et al. 2005). We also note

    that a whole different set of considerations apply to wind- and

    water-dispersed species, and to the four kingdoms other than

    animals. The suggestion of Doerr, Barrett & Doerr (2011) that

    dispersal behaviour could be universal is centred on an exam-

    ple that involved a small number of well-studied and related

    species with high cognitive abilities.

    Uncertainty and robustness

    Doerr, Barrett & Doerr (2011) argue that structural connec-

    tivity can be measured with reasonable certainty. The issue

    to us is not the development of a repeatable metric, but

    whether variation in such a metric is a good predictor ofmulti-generational range expansions for a wide range of

    different taxa. The effect of the matrix on long-distance

    dispersal and colonisation is virtually unknown; and we

    already know that short-distance matrix effects are species

    specific (Eycott et al. 2009; Prevedello & Vieira 2010). Doerr,

    Barrett & Doerr (2011) reasonably counter that measure-

    ment of habitat quality is an issue, and also species-specific,

    but it is much easier to investigate, for example by relating

    the population densities of individual species or broader

    measures of diversity to environmental and biotic variables.

    We strongly disagree with the Doerr, Barrett & Doerr (2011)

    view of area, quality and connectivity that all provide the

    same degree of conservation certainty because their benefits

    depend on the interactions between them. It is clear to us

    (e.g. Table 1) that different variables that interact in a given

    model do not all have the same effect sizes or associated

    uncertainties. Uncertainty about functional connectivity is

    higher than any of the above-mentioned factors because it

    adds uncertainty about dispersal distances and behaviour on

    top of uncertainty about what constitutes habitat quality.

    Crucially, though, this uncertainty does not negate the large

    effects of habitat area and quality over large numbers of

    species and landscapes, because only metapopulations close

    to their extinction threshold are substantially limited by

    connectivity (Hodgson et al. 2009: Fig. 1).

    Area, quality and connectivity 149

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    Table 1. Brief overview of evidence for the importance of different landscape-scale factors in conservation. Priority has been given to review

    papersand meta-analyses, papersthat compare more than one factor, andpapers that relatefactors specifically to range expansion

    Landscape attribute Summary of evidence Sources

    Habit at a rea Eas tern US tre es range exp ansi ons de pe nde nt on so urc e

    populations

    Iverson, Schwartz & Prasad

    (2004)

    Patch area has consistently bigger effect (up to 100 times

    greater F ratio in ANOVA) than connectivity measures on

    species richness and abundance of plants and butterflies in

    fragmented grasslands in southern Germany

    Bruckmann, Krauss &

    Steffan-Dewenter (2010)

    Plant and butterfly species richness of calcareous grasslands

    in northern Germany is affected by patch area, and not

    significantly by isolation or surrounding landscape

    heterogeneity

    Krauss, Steffan-Dewenter &

    Tscharntke (2003);Krauss

    et al. (2004)

    Simulated and observed expansion rates of butterfly Pararge

    aegeria >40% slower in landscape containing 24% less

    woodland cover

    Hill et al. (2001)

    Hesperia comma butterfly range expansion rates in UK

    strongly related to habitat quantity

    Wilson, Davies & Thomas

    (2010)

    Habitat quality* Positive effects of quality on occupancy for plants, butterflies,

    moths, other insects, amphibians, birds, small mammals,

    primates and carnivores

    Reviewed by Mortelliti, Amori

    & Boitani (2010)

    Correct vegetation management can increase butterfly

    densities 10- to 100-fold

    Thomas, Simcox & Hovestadt

    (2010)

    Macaw (Ara and Orthopsittaca spp) density in Amazon varies

    >10-fold with respect to indicators of human disturbance

    Karubian et al. (2005)

    Sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) range expansion dependent

    on population growth rate

    Tinker, Doak & Estes (2008)

    Quality the dominant factor affecting butterfly and moth

    abundance and diversity in a Finnish landscape

    Po yry et al. (2009)

    Spatial pattern 1:

    aggregation (aka spatial

    autocorrelation)

    Isolation negatively affects colonisation rate and occupancy Reviewed in Hanski (1999:

    Chapter 9)

    Negative effect of isolation on patch occupancy in three

    English butterflies (effect of habitat quality is 23 times

    larger).

    Thomas et al. (2001)

    Positive effects of aggregation on flower visitation and seed

    set in pan-European study of 10 plant species (although

    patch area effect is bigger)

    Dauber et al. (2010)

    Aggregation measures have positive effects on species richness

    and abundance of butterflies (and to lesser extent plants) in

    fragmented grasslands, though not as large as the effects of

    area

    Bruckmann, Krauss &

    Steffan-Dewenter (2010)

    Spatial pattern 2: habitat

    connections (corridors

    and stepping stones)

    Average 16-fold increases in exchange rates between patches,

    based on systematic review in which the corridor is the same

    type of habitat as the connected patches

    Eycott et al. (2009)

    Modest positive effect of corridors on dispersal rate:

    standardised effect size

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    This leads to the issue of robustness. Understanding and

    modelling the detailed behavioural responses of individuals to

    multiple landscape elements is an interesting area of research.

    However, if such details are to be incorporated within multi-

    generational distribution models, we would argue that other

    details (e.g. habitat changes, local adaptation, species interac-

    tions, evolution of dispersal) are equally relevant, and that they

    all have associated uncertainties. The robustness of such com-

    plicated modelling will almost necessarily be low. The intention

    of the original Hodgson et al. (2009) argument was to identify

    robust, easy to understand and easy to implement conserva-

    tion strategies.

    What role for connectivity conservation?

    It is possible that everybody understands connectivity con-servation to mean a holistic, landscape-to-continental scale

    conservation method that accounts for all important factors

    (including habitat quality, quantity, spatial habitat arrange-

    ments, the character of the intervening landscape), and the

    consequences of these for persistence and resilience of multi-

    ple species, in a location-specific manner (Doerr, Barrett &

    Doerr 2011). If so, our fears about an over-emphasis on con-

    nectivity may be unfounded. But if connectivity conserva-

    tion is all this, then the term is actually an unneeded alias

    for biodiversity conservation. Such a re-branding may be

    useful to stimulate investment in conservation, but we should

    still be aware of the potential for confusion it creates. Ouroriginal concern was not that there were problems with every

    activity labelled connectivity conservation, but that the

    review of Heller & Zavaleta (2009) found that increasing

    connectivity was the predominant proposed solution for

    conservation under climate change.

    We think that considerations of connectivity have an impor-

    tant place in conservation planning (e.g. Moilanen et al. 2005;

    Moilanen & Wintle 2007; Moilanen, Wilson & Possingham

    2009; Carroll, Dunk & Moilanen 2010). Recent awareness of

    connectivity has undoubtedly been helpful to conservation: it

    has freed conservationists from focusing too narrowly on indi-

    vidual protected areas, and has brought landscape-scale and

    spatial considerations into conservation. But our concern was

    how connectivity is often seen as the solution when the funda-

    mental problem is an inadequate quantity of high-quality habi-

    tats. It is fortunate that many of the existing connectivity

    conservation programmes such as the Great Eastern Ranges

    (GER) initiative are heavily focused on increasing and consoli-

    dating natural habitat area (the first three of five GER goals;

    Mackey, Watson & Worboys 2010). This serves to reinforce

    the impression that connectivity conservation may be a new

    name for the business of conservation that has long recognised

    the role of habitat quantity, quality, and connectivity (e.g. Dia-

    mond 1975).

    Based on the weight of current evidence (Table 1) and our

    original arguments (Hodgson et al. 2009), we remain of the

    opinion that maintaining (and where feasible restoring) large

    areas of environmentally diverse, high-quality (low human

    impact) breeding habitats should be the primary focus of con-

    servation when resources limit the range of conservationactions that can take place. Compared to this, structural fea-

    tures of the matrix which are not breeding habitat for many or

    any species are a minor consideration.

    Acknowledgements

    We thank Amy Eycott, Jeremy Thomas and Kevin Watts for providing mate-

    rialpermission tocite work inpress.

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