2009 1st Registration Period Analysis

Presented at Registration Workshop7 May 2009

Prof George SubotzkyExecutive Director: Information & Strategic Analysis

Acknowledgements

The follow DISA staff members provided invaluable help and support in preparing the background information and this presentation:

– Herbert Zemann– Herman Visser– Pamela Pistorius

Preface• Welcome this engagement with registrations

operations• This kind of interaction is a feature of our

emerging BI Framework• At the heart of BI is actionable intelligence

– As part the cycle of strategic management (planning, implementation, review and change), this is gathered and analysed in order and manage organisational performance with the aim of achieving strategic and operational goals, objectives and targets

– Part of this is interpreting and understanding trends with a view to improving operations, service delivery and client satisfaction

– This aim is best served as a joint initiative between operational and strategic roleplayers

Introduction• 2009 registration process significantly

different from previous years• Key dates, 1st Registration Period,

2008-9: 2008 2009Start: Postal and Internet

3 Dec 2007 61 days24 Nov 2008 14 days

Start: Walk-in 8 Dec 2008 33 days

Close: New Registrations NA 9 Jan 2009 13 daysClose: Semester 1 modules 1 Feb 2008

34 days22 Jan 2009

42 daysClose: Year modules 5 Mar 2008 6 Mar 2009

Workflow processing 3 Apr 2008 29 days 3 Apr 2009 28 days

Changing Registration Patterns in 2009• Due to the changes in the registration process, in particular

the requirement that all new students must apply prior to registration, registration dates and patterns in 2009 were significantly different from previous years. This makes comparative analysis very tricky.

• Although the 2009 1st Registration Period commenced two weeks earlier than last year for personal/Internet registrations, very few registrations occurred during this period (around 2 430) and only picked up after 8 December when walk-in registrations commenced.

• Therefore, 60-day period until closing date of 22 January for Semester 1 registrations effectively reduced to 46 days

Changing Registration Patterns in 2009• The 9 January 2009 deadline for new registrations appears to

have caught many new students by surprise. It can therefore be anticipated that more new students will register during the 2nd Registration Period. Indications are that this is indeed the case.

• Closing date of 22 January for Semester 1 registrations may have precluded many students from being able to provide initial fee payments before the end of January payday

• Operational challenges at CAO and Unisa resulted in a large backlog, which took some time to be cleared

Challenges for analysis• Significant process changes in 2009 make

comparisons very tricky• At least three ways of comparing, all of

which provide different perspectives:–Comparable dates (preferred)–Comparable registration weeks

(informative)–Comparable registration days

• All figures refer to provisional formal Headcounts. Final HEMIS active student Headcounts are uniformly lower

Total Formal & Non-Formal Registrations Processed 2006-2009 to Date (incl. Temps)

2006 2007 2008 2009 to date

Cancelled - % 2.63% 2.37% 2.07% 0.74%Cancelled - Headcount 7 541 7 861 7 442 2 457Temporary - % 17.11% 18.46% 18.55% 24.94%Temporary - Headcount 49 066 61 286 66 648 83 255Registered - % 80.27% 79.17% 79.38% 74.32%Registered - Headcount 230 232 262 873 285 208 248 052

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

Headcounts

Total Formal & Non-Formal Registrations Processed,

2006-2009 to Date• In 2009 to date, a total of 333 764 formal and non-

formal registrations have been processed. This represents an increase over previous years, as this total is already close to the 2008 total of 359 298 formal and non-formal registrations processed.

• These figures give some indication of the huge operational challenges facing Unisa in registering its vast and increasing student complement annually.

Formal & Non-Formal Enrolments, 2006-8 and 2009 to date

2006 2007 2008 2009 to date

% Non Formal 19% 20% 20% 12%% Formal 81% 80% 80% 88%Non-Formal 55 117 64 015 70 345 33 178Formal 230 232 262 875 285 162 240 274

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

Headcounts

2009 1st Registration Period Enrolments, Compared to 2008

24-Nov27-Nov30-Nov3-Dec6-Dec9-Dec12-Dec15-Dec18-Dec21-Dec24-Dec27-Dec30-Dec2-Jan5-Jan8-Jan11-Jan14-Jan17-Jan20-Jan23-Jan26-Jan29-Jan1-Feb4-Feb7-Feb10-Feb13-Feb16-Feb19-Feb22-Feb25-Feb28-Feb2-M

ar5-M

ar8-M

ar11-M

ar14-M

ar17-M

ar20-M

ar23-M

ar26-M

ar29-M

ar1-Apr4-Apr

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 00020083 Apr

256 1682009 3 Apr

246 242

Start walk in Reg.

3/12/07

Start walk in Reg.

8/12/08

Close S1 Reg.

22/01/09

Close S1 Reg. 1/2/08

Close Y Reg. 6/3/08

Close Y Reg. 5/3/09

Start Internet/Posta

l 24/11/08

PGResults 10/3/09

2009 1st Registration PeriodEnrolments, Compared to 2008

• During the 1st Registration Period in 2009, which closed on 3 April, a total of 246 242 students registered, compared to 256 168 during the 1st Registration Period in 2008. This represents a decline of around 10 000 enrolments.

• As indicated, many new students may have been precluded from registering thus far because of the new application requirements.

Zimbabwe South Africa Other Total

2008 N 9 848 2 906 443 13 197% 74,6% 22,0% 3,4% 100,0%

2009 N 2 315 3 154 341 5 810% 39,8% 54,3% 5,9% 100,0%

Change: 2008-9 N - 7 533 248 - 102 - 7 387% -76,5% 8,5% -23,0% -56,0%

• However, an analysis of Zimbabwean student enrolments shows that between 2008 and 2009 there was an overall decline of 7 387. This was the combined result of a decline of 7 533 Zimbabwean students resident in Zimbabwe, a small increase of 248 in Zimbabwean students resident in South Africa and a small decline of 102 among those resident elsewhere.

• Accordingly, almost 75% of the decline of 10 000 enrolments between the 2008 in 2009 1st Registration Periods can be explained by the drop in Zimbabwean students. However, with the reinstatement of exam venues in Zimbabwe, more Zimbabwean students resident in that country can be expected to register during the 2nd Registration Period.

1st Registration Period Enrolments by Weekly Total, 2008-9

BFP W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 W18 0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

Start walk in Reg.

3/12/07

Start walk in

Reg. 8/12/08

Close S1 Reg.

22/01/09

Close S1 Reg. 1/2/08

Close Y Reg. 5/3/09

Close Y Reg. 6/3/08

Start Internet/Post

al 24/11/08

Post Gradu-ate Results

10/3/09

1st Registration Period Course countsby Tuition Period, 2008-9

24-Nov

27-Nov

30-Nov3-D

ec6-D

ec9-D

ec

12-Dec

15-Dec

18-Dec

21-Dec

24-Dec

27-Dec

30-Dec2-Ja

n5-Ja

n8-Ja

n11-Ja

n14-Ja

n17-Ja

n20-Ja

n23-Ja

n26-Ja

n29-Ja

n1-Fe

b4-Fe

b7-Fe

b10-Fe

b13-Fe

b16-Fe

b19-Fe

b22-Fe

b25-Fe

b28-Fe

b2-M

ar5-M

ar8-M

ar

11-Mar

14-Mar

17-Mar

20-Mar

23-Mar

26-Mar

29-Mar1-A

pr4-A

pr 0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

2008 Y1 6-Apr

615 597

2008 S1 6-Apr

278 698

2008 S2 6-Apr

79 802

2008 Total 6-Apr

974 149

2009 Y1 6-Apr

468 334 2009 S1

6-Apr 437 971

2009 S2 6-Apr

130 418

2009 Total 6-Apr

1 036 723

Start walk in Reg.

3/12/07

Start walk in Reg.

8/12/08

Close S1 Reg. 22/01/09

Close S1 Reg. 1/2/08

Close Y Reg. 5/3/09

Close Y Reg. 6/3/08

PG Results 10/3/09

Start Internet/Post

al 24/11/08

S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008 and 2009

to date

2008 2009 0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

2008 20090%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9 to date

HC CC Ave Course Load 0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9 to date

• The ongoing semesterisation of courses at Unisa had a major impact on the pattern of registrations during the 1st Registration Period in 2009. As can be seen, there was a significant increase in the total number of course counts in 2009 during the 1st Registration Period compared to last year (1 035 156 vs 974 097).

• In combination with the decline of around 10 000 enrolments between 2009 and 2008 discussed above, this represents an increase in the average course load from 3,79 in 2008 to 4,20 in 2009. One possible reason for this is that students registering via self-help received less guidance and, correspondingly, unilaterally increased their own course load. This may have implications on Unisa's overall success and throughput rates.

S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9 to date

• Significantly, as a result of the ongoing semesterisation, the proportion of enrolments in year-long and Semester 1 courses shifted dramatically between 2008 and 2009 (from 63,2% and 28,6% to 45,2% and 42,2% respectively).

• In addition, the number and proportion of Semester 2 enrolments during the 1st Registration Period in 2009 also increased dramatically over the last year (from 8,2% or 79 809 to 12,6% or 130 386). This is probably the combined result of students increasingly simultaneously registering for Semester 1 & 2 on the one hand and, as indicated, new students who missed the 9 January deadline for new applicants registering for Semester 2 courses.

Formal Registrations by College, 2006-2009 to Date

CEMS CHS CLAW CSET CAES Occasional

2006 115 096 57 433 26 747 15 029 2 723 13 2042007 132 358 61 968 28 890 17 687 3 712 18 2582008 140 233 75 472 27 527 18 958 4 507 18 5112009 to date 114 311 78 395 22 664 17 420 3 965 11 297

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

Headcounts

Formal Registrations by College, 2006-2009 to Date

• Strong growth is evident in CHS, where enrolments to date have already exceeded last year's total. To a lesser extent, enrolments in CSET and CAES have also increased and are approaching last year's total. As courses in the CEMS are highly semesterised, many 2nd Registration Period enrolments can be expected in that college.

• These up to now unmanaged enrolment trends will have to be carefully negotiated and managed as part of Unisa's forthcoming enrolment planning process.

Formal Registration by Race, 2006-2009 to Date

2006 2007 2008 2009 to date

White - hc 59 227 61 353 60 331 53 774Indian - hc 22 814 24 119 24 341 21 978Coloured - hc 14 235 16 130 16 736 14 001African - hc 133 889 161 215 183 799 158 297African - % 58% 61% 64% 64%Coloured - % 6% 6% 6% 6%Indian - % 10% 9% 9% 9%White - % 26% 23% 21% 22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

Hea

dcou

nts

Formal Registration by Race, 2006-2009 to Date

• The distribution of 2009 enrolments to date by race is almost identical to that of 2008, with 64% Africans, 22% white, 9% Indian and 6% Coloured. Significantly, the proportion of African students increased from 58% in 2006, while that of whites declined from 26%.

• In order to determine whether these trends reflect greater equity of access and success, these aggregate figures need to be disaggregated by qualification level and field of study as well as by success and throughput rates.

Formal Registrations by Gender, 2006-2009 to Date

2006 2007 2008 2009 to date

Female 56.3% 56.4% 57.7% 59.9%Male 43.7% 43.6% 42.3% 40.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Headcounts

Formal Registrations by Gender, 2006-2009 to Date

• By contrast, the proportion of women in 2009 to date increased to 59,9% of the total. Correspondingly, the proportion of males declined to 40,1%. Since 2006, the ratio of females to males has been steady increasing. As indicated above, these aggregated figures must be disaggregated in order to identify underlying inequalities.

Formal Registrations by Age Group, 2006-2009 to Date

2006 2007 2008 2009 to date

Unknown 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%> 69 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%60-69 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%50-59 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4%40-49 13.9% 13.4% 13.7% 15.4%30-39 32.2% 31.4% 30.7% 31.5%20-29 46.1% 47.7% 48.2% 46.3%< 20 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 3.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Headc

ounts

Formal Registrations by Age Group, 2006-2009 to Date

• The analysis of registrations by age group reveals increases in the above-40 age groups. Correspondingly, a decline is evident in the proportion of the below-29 age groups.

• This represents a counter trend to previous years. It remains to be seen whether these trends continue in future. Either way, this has a significant bearing on teaching and learning support practices.

Provisional and HEMIS Enrolments, 2006-9

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2006 (Actual)2007 (Actual)2008 (Prelim)2009 (To date)2010

Provisional and HEMIS Enrolments, 2006-9

2006 (Actual)

2007 (Actual)

2008 (Prelim)

2009 (To date)

% Change (2007-8)

2010 Target (Active only)

Provisional (1st Reg. Per.) 198 531 230 131 255 963 246 168 Provisional (Entire year) 230 232 262 873 285 206 8,49% HEMIS Total 227 539 254 136 270 527 6,45% HEMIS Final (Active only) 227 539 239 380 262 038 9,47% 258 013 Active Student Rate 94,19% 96,86%

• As can be seen, provisional enrolments in 2008 increased by 8,49% over 2007 (285 206 vs 262 873).

• The preliminary total (active and non-active) HEMIS headcount in 2008 increased by 6,45% over 2007 (270 527 vs 254 136).

• However, the preliminary active only HEMIS headcount increased by 9,47% (262 038 vs 239 380). This increased proportion was the result of an increased active student rate in 2008 (96,86% vs 94,19%).

• Significantly, the preliminary active only HEMIS headcount of 262 038 exceeds the 2010 ministerial total enrolment target for Unisa of 258 013. Clearly, careful enrolment planning will be required as well as negotiations with the DoE in order to avoid carrying unfunded students on the one hand and restricting enrolments which is counter to Unisa's social mandate on the other

Summary of emerging trends• A decline of just under 10 000 Headcounts was evident

in the 2009 1st Registration Period compared to 2008 (246 168 vs 255 963)

• Around 75% of this decline can be accounted for by the drop in Zimbabwean student registrations in Zimbabwe

• The higher S2 registrations to date (127 617 vs 79 701 in 2008) indicate that the final enrolments for 2009 may yet exceed last year’s as we can expect increased registrations during the 2nd Registration Period

• 2009 course counts to date (1 035 156) already exceed the 2008 total for the 1st Registration Period (974 097). This indicates a trend towards a higher average course load in 2009 (4,20 vs 3,79 in 2008) – which may impact negatively on success and throughput

Summary of emerging trends• A significant shift is evident in the number and proportion of

course counts by tuition period: with significantly fewer Y1s and significantly more S1s and S2s as the result of semesterisation

• Particular growth is evident in CHS in 2009 to date• No shift in the student profile by race is evident between

2009 to date and 2008, with Africans constituting 64% of the total, whites 22%, Indians 9% and Coloureds 6%

• The proportion of women grew by 2% between 2008 to date from 57,7% to 59,7%

• A slight increase in the proportion of older students (30 years and above) is evident in 2009 to date. This may be offset in the final figures by the greater number of first-time entering students who may still register for the 2nd semester, having missed the 9 January deadline for applications

Summary of emerging trends• The preliminary (2nd submission mission) HEMIS active total

for 2008 (262 – up 9,13%) already exceeds the 2010 Ministerial target (258 013)

• Overall, it can be expected that total provisional enrolments for 2009 and, correspondingly, HEMIS enrolments for 2009 will increase over 2008. Indications from the Central Admissions Office are that around 10 000 applications from new students have already been processed for the 2nd Registration Period.

• DOE has indicated a more flexible approach regarding targets. However, as HE allocations are made on a 3-year rolling basis according to the MTEF, any enrolments above approved target will not be subsidised.

• Any appeal for further higher education funding will have to have Treasury approval. The extent to which this may be considered in the Zuma government remains to be seen.