2008 and Beyond: A new electoral landscape? Todd Donovan Western Washington University.
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Transcript of 2008 and Beyond: A new electoral landscape? Todd Donovan Western Washington University.
ThemesThemes What might be unprecedented about the
2008 election?
Any change in the party system on horizon?
Stability and Change in US Stability and Change in US ElectionElection Most elections replicate past results
Some are “realignments”
1932, 1968, 1980.... New landscape, new coalitions
Recent Electoral CoalitionsRecent Electoral Coalitions New DealNew Deal 1932 - 1968
Democrats strongest in South; GOP in NE
Regan RevolutionRegan Revolution 1980 - 2000 1968 as precursor Clinton coalition as interlude
StalemateStalemate 2000 - 2008
New Deal CoalitionNew Deal Coalition 1930s - 1968 Democrats dominate Congress & White House GOP success with White House 1952
Dems enduring majority party GOP = West, New England, OH/IN Dems = South, PA, NY, MA, unions, blue collar, Catholics
Issue: New Deal economicsIssue: New Deal economics
New Deal CoalitionNew Deal Coalition
1944 FDR 432 (53.4)
Dewey 99 (45.9)
GOP competitive in CA, NY, IL, MI, CT, PA…
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Post New Deal CoalitionPost New Deal Coalition
1968 Humphrey 191 (42.7)
Nixon 301 (43.4)
Wallace 46 (13%)
Democratic Party in South splitting
Issue: Race
Post New Deal Coalition After 1968 New issue divide drives people to different
parties No majority party: Divided government Civil rights drives white southerners away from
New Deal coalition Takes decades for GOP to get fully established
in South
Reagan RevolutionReagan Revolution 1980 - 2000 Realignment of South to GOP deepens Dems down to 30% of white southern vote Rocky Mountain West more solidly GOP What was changing?
Decline of class-based voting (not income) rise of ‘values’ issues & values voters in GOP coalition Emerging gender split in voting
Reagan RevolutionReagan Revolution
1980 1980 RR 50.7% End of Democratic
dominance in South GOP gains in US
House GOP controls US
Senate
Reagan RevolutionReagan Revolution
19881988 Bush 426 (53%) Dukakis 111 (46) Democrats
maintain control of US House; regain Senate
Clinton Coalition (interlude)Clinton Coalition (interlude)
1992 - 20001992 - 2000 Clinton wins some South (not down ballot) End of Democratic Majorities in Congress Higher gender gap, higher urban / rural
gap; economic concerns high Democrats party of the two coasts Polarization of parties?
Clinton Coalition = GOP gainsClinton Coalition = GOP gains 1992
2 incumbent Dem Senators lose (GA, NC) 2 incumbent GOP Senators lost (CA, WI) Net loss of 9 Dem House seats (AR, GA, AL, FL, SC)
1994 Dems lose 54 US House Seats, lose majority Southerners, Whites, men largest vote shift to GOP
Clinton CoalitionClinton Coalition
19921992 Clinton 370 (43%) Bush 168 (37%) LA, AR, TN, KY,
FL all Dem Dems loselose seats
in US House, lose 55 seats in ‘94
Clinton CoalitionClinton Coalition
19961996
Clinton 379 (49%) Dole 159 (41%)
LA, AR, MO, TN, KY, FL all Dem.
2000 - 2008: Deadlock2000 - 2008: Deadlock
Near even division 2000 - 2008 2000 presidential election a tie
Senate a tie, US House 12 seats
Old South now solid GOP (not so much with AR, LA, FL)
Social issues, security trumped economics in 2000, 2004
2000 - 2008: Deadlock2000 - 2008: Deadlock Rise of large generational split
2000 & 2004 65% of those under 30 voted Democrat
If they vote….
Growth of Latino vote (8% in 2004) trending Democrat (out of FL)
2006 Midterm vote referendum on Bush
The Old (?) MapThe Old (?) Map 2000 Stalemate2000 Stalemate Bush 271 (48%) Gore 266 (48.4)
NH, OH GOP NM, IA Dem
The Old (?) MapThe Old (?) Map
2004 Stalemate2004 Stalemate
Bush 286 (53%) Kerry 251 (47%)
NH Dem NM, OH, IA GOP
A Realignment in 2008?A Realignment in 2008? 1860 1896 1932 1968
1980 1994
??
“Durable change in party coalitions”
New issues that break old coalitions
New parties High interest, high
turnout
What Changed in 2008?What Changed in 2008? GOP
Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus about
candidate High turnout Not leading in fundraising Defending 12 of 13 most
vulnerable Senators
What Changed in 2008?What Changed in 2008? Democrats
Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus
Huge generation split Huge racial split Modest gender split
High turnout Nearly as high as 1972
Lead in fundraising
McCain vs Obama DynamicMcCain vs Obama Dynamic Different than McCain vs. Clinton
Obama and the west a new coalition (CO, NV, AZ, WI, MN, OR, WA)
Clinton and the Midwest the old coalition (OH, PA)
Both appealed to independent voters
Where was the Change?Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue”
IN +11 Obama ND + 9 Obama MT +9 Obama NE +9 Obama (+1 EC vote) DE +9 Obama UT +8 Obama VT +8 Obama MA +8 Obama VA +7 Obama (+13 EC votes)
Where was the Change?Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue”
NV +7 Obama (+5 EC votes) NM +7 Obama (+ 5 EC votes) CT +7 Obama WI +7 Obama CA +7 Obama CO +7 Obama (+ 9 EC votes) SD +6 Obama MI +6 Obama NC +6 Obama (+ 15 EC votes)
Where was the Change?Where was the Change? New Map…
MD + 6 Obama GA +6 Obama KS +5 Obama
Same old thing WA + 5 Obama ME + 4 Obama IA, FL, NH, NJ, NY, PA + 4 Obama (+ 34 EC votes) OH + 2 Obama (+20 EC votes)
Who is changing?Who is changing? Age
Young voters (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
48% 54% 66% (+18 vs. Gore) Over 65 voters
2000 2004 2008
50% 48% 45% (-5 vs Gore)
Who is changing?Who is changing? Partisans
Independents (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
45% 49% 52% (+7 vs. Gore)
Who is changing?Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity
African Americans (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
90% 88% 95%
Latinos (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
62% 53% 67%
Who is changing?Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity
White women (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
48% 44% 46% (-2 vs. Gore)
White men (% Dem)
2000 2004 2008
36% 37% 41% (+5 vs Gore)
What is Changing?What is Changing? Issue effects
Economy top concern again Iraq fading….
Any realigning issue? slavery, industrialization, Great Depression, Civil
Rights...
Shades of RealignmentShades of Realignment First Dem w/ popular majority since Carter Big Dem gains in US Senate (+7?)
OR, NM, CO, VA, NC, NH (AK, MN, GA in play) LBJ Last Dem to carry seats (+2 in 1964) RR came in w/ +12 Senate seats in 1980
Dem gains in US House 1930s Last time a party gained +20 in 2x elections