2006 Space Exploration Program Assessment Documents/30AIAA SEPC... · pg. 3 AIAA Space Exploration...

25 April 200625 April 2006

John C. Mankins

Chair, Space Exploration Program CommitteeArtemis Innovation Management Solutions, LLC

Ashburn, VA 20147 USA

AIAA Space Exploration Program CommitteeAIAA Space Exploration Program Committee

2006 Space Exploration Program Assessment2006 Space Exploration Program Assessment[[Version 1.0]Version 1.0]

pg. pg. 22


Version 1 - April 25, 2006Version 1 - April 25, 2006

IntroductionIntroduction

•• One role of the several Program Committees of the AIAA is to inform theOne role of the several Program Committees of the AIAA is to inform themembership / leadership of the AIAA concerning the status of relevantmembership / leadership of the AIAA concerning the status of relevantmajor program (government and other)major program (government and other)

•• The AIAA Space Exploration Program Committee (SE PC), formed lastThe AIAA Space Exploration Program Committee (SE PC), formed lastsummer, has conducted a high level assessment of the status of spacesummer, has conducted a high level assessment of the status of spaceexploration program planning, and supporting research and technologyexploration program planning, and supporting research and technology(R&T) programs as presented in the FY 2007 NASA President(R&T) programs as presented in the FY 2007 NASA President’’s Budgets Budget

•• Summary FindingsSummary Findings

oo There have been substantial adjustments in the Vision for Space ExplorationThere have been substantial adjustments in the Vision for Space Exploration(original plan in February 2004, versus revised plan in February 2006)(original plan in February 2004, versus revised plan in February 2006)

oo These changes in the Vision and its implementation have been implemented in aThese changes in the Vision and its implementation have been implemented in aseries of sweeping adjustments in NASA space exploration programs, as well asseries of sweeping adjustments in NASA space exploration programs, as well asvirtually all aspects of Agency research and technology virtually all aspects of Agency research and technology (R&T) programs(R&T) programs

oo A preliminary assessment of the changes in program scope and budgets over theA preliminary assessment of the changes in program scope and budgets over theperiod ranging from 2002 through 2007 (including the 2008-2009 budget run-period ranging from 2002 through 2007 (including the 2008-2009 budget run-out) suggest the likely elimination of long-standing NASA R&T core competencies,out) suggest the likely elimination of long-standing NASA R&T core competencies,significant changes in the science community (already noted in the Media), assignificant changes in the science community (already noted in the Media), aswell as significant tactical issues likely to arise in the coming budget yearswell as significant tactical issues likely to arise in the coming budget years

oo These changes are likely to affect numerous AIAA members and committeesThese changes are likely to affect numerous AIAA members and committees

pg. pg. 33



Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)

Original Vision - February 2004Original Vision - February 2004

pg. pg. 44




Revised Vision - February 2006Revised Vision - February 2006

pg. pg. 55




February 2004 - Original February 2004 - Original ““Sand ChartSand Chart””

pg. pg. 66




February 2006 - Revised February 2006 - Revised ““Sand ChartSand Chart””

pg. pg. 77




Comparisons: February 2004 - February 2006Comparisons: February 2004 - February 2006

0606 1111 1818

Dollar valuesDollar values(FY (FY ‘‘06, 06, ‘‘11 and11 and

‘‘18) are roughly18) are roughlyequivalentequivalent……

However,However,there has beenthere has been

substantialsubstantialchange in thechange in the

contentcontent

pg. pg. 88




February 2004 - Original February 2004 - Original ““Sand ChartSand Chart””

pg. pg. 99



Specific Systems for ExplorationSpecific Systems for Exploration

•• Next 10 yearsNext 10 years

oo A new capsule for access to space: the Crew Exploration VehicleA new capsule for access to space: the Crew Exploration Vehicle

oo A new EELV class launcher for CEV: The Crew Launch VehicleA new EELV class launcher for CEV: The Crew Launch VehicleCLV)CLV)

oo LunarLunar Reconn Reconn. Orbiter; possible lunar lander. Orbiter; possible lunar lander

oo Lunar surface Lunar surface ‘‘advanced developmentadvanced development’’

•• Next 20 yearsNext 20 years

oo A heavy lift launch vehicle for human lunar transportation systemsA heavy lift launch vehicle for human lunar transportation systems

oo Human lunar in-space transportationHuman lunar in-space transportation

oo Lunar surface access moduleLunar surface access module

oo Selected lunar surface systemsSelected lunar surface systems

•• Next 30-40 yearsNext 30-40 years

oo Research related to human Mars MissionsResearch related to human Mars Missions

oo Possible extension of lunar surface activitiesPossible extension of lunar surface activities

•• Beyond the next 40 yearsBeyond the next 40 years

oo Human Mars missions; new science missions; etc.Human Mars missions; new science missions; etc.


February 2006 - Revised February 2006 - Revised ““Sand ChartSand Chart””

pg. pg. 1010



VSE 2004 - 2006

Comparison of Strategic Planning

•• LEO, Lunar SystemsLEO, Lunar Systems

•• System developmentSystem developmentdecisions based ondecisions based onpreliminary analysis,preliminary analysis,existing systems andexisting systems andtechnologiestechnologies

•• Minimal technologyMinimal technology‘‘advancedadvanceddevelopmentdevelopment’’----focused on pre-focused on pre-selected systemsselected systems

•• Complete selectedComplete selectedexisting missionsexisting missions

•• SelectedSelectedsupportingsupportingmissions (e.g.,missions (e.g.,LRO)LRO)

•• Minimal new forMinimal new formissionsmissions

•• Fly-out SpaceFly-out SpaceShuttle thruShuttle thru’’ 2010 2010

•• Complete ISSComplete ISS

•• Moon by 2018Moon by 2018

•• Focused HumanFocused HumanLunar Program,Lunar Program,other programsother programssupportingsupporting

•• Metrics:Metrics:Performance,Performance,then Schedule,then Schedule,then Costthen Cost

•• Aggressive R&T toAggressive R&T toInform systemsInform systemsdecisionsdecisions

•• Use of ISS forUse of ISS forTechnology FlightTechnology FlightExperiments andExperiments andDemonstrationsDemonstrations

•• Lunar missionLunar missiontechnology demostechnology demos

•• Mars missionMars missiontechnology demostechnology demos

•• New capabilities (e.g.,New capabilities (e.g.,‘‘opticaloptical comm comm’’))

•• SelectedSelectedsupportingsupportingmissions (e.g.,missions (e.g.,LRO)LRO)

•• Robust MarsRobust Marsprogram -program -including Sampleincluding SampleReturnReturn

•• Strong OuterStrong OuterPlanets explorationPlanets exploration

•• Search for otherSearch for otherplanets, etc.planets, etc.

•• Fly-out SpaceFly-out SpaceShuttle thruShuttle thru’’ 2010 2010


•• Strong reliance onStrong reliance onISS to conductISS to conducthuman researchhuman researchfor long durationfor long durationspace flightspace flight

•• Moon by 2018Moon by 2018

•• IntegratedIntegratedHuman/RoboticHuman/Roboticexploration visionexploration vision

•• Metrics:Metrics:““Affordable &Affordable &SustainableSustainable””

•• Development ofDevelopment ofSystem System ““buildingbuildingblocksblocks””

Research,Technology and

Development

Robotic SpaceFlight

Human SpaceFlight

SpaceExploration

StrategicThrust(s)

pg. pg. 1111



VSE 2004 - 2006

Comparison of Budget Planning

•• Minimal funding inMinimal funding inresearch andresearch andtechnology; CEVtechnology; CEVfocusedfocused

•• Minimal fundingMinimal fundingfor new roboticfor new roboticmissionsmissions

•• SelectedSelectedterminations ofterminations offunding for in-funding for in-progress missionsprogress missions

•• Fly-out Space ShuttleFly-out Space Shuttlethruthru’’ 2010 2010


•• Near term ramp-upNear term ramp-upfor single CEV andfor single CEV andCLV developmentCLV developmentfundingfunding

•• Focused HumanFocused HumanLunar Program,Lunar Program,other programsother programssupportingsupporting

•• Metrics:Metrics:Performance,Performance,then Schedule,then Schedule,then Costthen Cost

•• Major investmentMajor investmentin novel systemin novel systemcapabilities andcapabilities andsupporting R&Tsupporting R&T

•• Growing fundingGrowing fundingfor Tech Flightfor Tech FlightDemosDemos

•• Robust funding forRobust funding forsolar systemsolar systemexplorationexploration

oo Mars programMars program

oo Outer PlanetsOuter Planets

•• Strong OuterStrong OuterPlanets explorationPlanets exploration

•• Strategically-Strategically-integrate Searchintegrate Searchfor other planetsfor other planets

•• Fly-out Space ShuttleFly-out Space Shuttlethruthru’’ 2010 2010


•• Strong funding for in-Strong funding for in-space researchspace research(microgravity, life(microgravity, lifesciences, etc.)sciences, etc.)

•• Near-term modestNear-term modestfunding for competitivefunding for competitive‘‘fly-offfly-off’’ for CEV for CEV

•• Decision on CLV byDecision on CLV by2009; ramp-up in2009; ramp-up infunding to followfunding to followShuttle stand-downShuttle stand-down

•• IntegratedIntegratedHuman/RoboticHuman/Roboticexplorationexplorationvisionvision

•• Metrics:Metrics:““Affordable &Affordable &SustainableSustainable””

•• Development ofDevelopment ofSystem System ““buildingbuildingblocksblocks””

Research andTechnology

Robotic SpaceFlight

Human Space FlightSpace Exploration

StrategicThrust(s)

pg. pg. 1212



NASA Space Exploration R&T BudgetsNASA Space Exploration R&T Budgets

PresidentPresident’’s Budgets: 2002 thrus Budgets: 2002 thru’’ 2007 (with 2007 (with ‘‘08-08-’’0909 Runout Runout))

•• SummarySummary

oo From Fiscal Year 2002-2005, US investments in NASA SpaceFrom Fiscal Year 2002-2005, US investments in NASA SpaceExploration Research and Technology increased significantlyExploration Research and Technology increased significantly……

»» While Staffing levels remained relatively steady; Resulting in a 3-While Staffing levels remained relatively steady; Resulting in a 3-fold increase in fold increase in ‘‘netnet’’ R&T activities R&T activities

oo In FY 2005-2006, adjustments were made in NASAIn FY 2005-2006, adjustments were made in NASA’’s operatings operatingplan, resulting in an initial significant reduction in Spaceplan, resulting in an initial significant reduction in SpaceExploration R&T investmentsExploration R&T investments

oo In FY 2007 (and the run out fiscal year budgets), still moreIn FY 2007 (and the run out fiscal year budgets), still moresignificant reductions in Space Exploration R&T are documentedsignificant reductions in Space Exploration R&T are documentedin the run outin the run out……

»» While Staffing levels remained relatively stead; Resulting in a 10-While Staffing levels remained relatively stead; Resulting in a 10-fold reduction in fold reduction in ‘‘netnet’’ R&T activities R&T activities

NOTE:NOTE:

The current staffing levels appear unsustainable: likely that additionalThe current staffing levels appear unsustainable: likely that additionalreductions in R&T funding (and R&T staff reassignment in large numbers toreductions in R&T funding (and R&T staff reassignment in large numbers to

near-term projects--primarily Constellation Systems)near-term projects--primarily Constellation Systems)

pg. pg. 1313



NASA Space Exploration R&T BudgetsNASA Space Exploration R&T Budgets

PresidentPresident’’s Budget: 2002 thrus Budget: 2002 thru’’ 2007 (with 2007 (with ‘‘08-08-’’0909 Runout Runout))

pg. pg. 1414



NASA Space/Aeronautics R&T BudgetsNASA Space/Aeronautics R&T Budgets

PresidentPresident’’s Budget: 2002 thrus Budget: 2002 thru’’ 2007 (with 2007 (with ‘‘08-08-’’0909 Runout Runout))

•• SummarySummary

oo From Fiscal Year 2002-2005, US investments in NASA Space ResearchFrom Fiscal Year 2002-2005, US investments in NASA Space Researchand Technology increased significantlyand Technology increased significantly……

»» While Staffing levels remained relatively steady; Resulting in a~ 50%While Staffing levels remained relatively steady; Resulting in a~ 50%increase in increase in ‘‘netnet’’ space R&T activities space R&T activities

»» However, Aeronautics R&T funding was roughly steady after initial declinesHowever, Aeronautics R&T funding was roughly steady after initial declines

oo In FY 2005-2006, adjustments were made in NASAIn FY 2005-2006, adjustments were made in NASA’’s operating plan,s operating plan,resulting in an initial significant reduction in R&T investmentsresulting in an initial significant reduction in R&T investments

oo In FY 2007 (and the run out fiscal year budgets), still more significantIn FY 2007 (and the run out fiscal year budgets), still more significantreductions in R&T are documented in the run outreductions in R&T are documented in the run out……

»» While Staffing levels remained relatively stead; Resulting in a 6- or 8-foldWhile Staffing levels remained relatively stead; Resulting in a 6- or 8-foldreduction in reduction in ‘‘netnet’’ NASA R&T activities NASA R&T activities

NOTE:NOTE:

The current staffing levels appear unsustainable: likely that additionalThe current staffing levels appear unsustainable: likely that additionalreductions in R&T funding (and R&T staff reassignment in large numbers toreductions in R&T funding (and R&T staff reassignment in large numbers to

near-term projects--primarily Constellation Systems)near-term projects--primarily Constellation Systems)

pg. pg. 1515



NASA - Space/Aeronautics R&T BudgetsNASA - Space/Aeronautics R&T Budgets

President President’’s Budget: 2002 thrus Budget: 2002 thru’’ 2007 (with 2007 (with ‘‘08-08-’’0909 Runout Runout))

pg. pg. 1616



Summary AssessmentSummary Assessment(1 of 3)(1 of 3)

•• The purposes, policies and content of programs related to the Vision forThe purposes, policies and content of programs related to the Vision forSpace Exploration have changed dramatically during the past yearSpace Exploration have changed dramatically during the past year

•• Major shifts in program emphasis have occurred:Major shifts in program emphasis have occurred:

oo Away from roughly balanced investments in human and robotic explorationAway from roughly balanced investments in human and robotic explorationmissions, andmissions, and

oo Away from significant investments in advanced research and technology and theAway from significant investments in advanced research and technology and thedevelopment of significant new capabilitiesdevelopment of significant new capabilities

•• Investments have been drastically reduced inInvestments have been drastically reduced in……

oo ‘‘NewNew’’ science concepts and missions science concepts and missions

oo Longer-term human and other in-space researchLonger-term human and other in-space research

oo Advanced technologies of all typesAdvanced technologies of all types

•• ConsequencesConsequences

oo It is unlikely that NASAIt is unlikely that NASA’’s long-standing core competencies will endure in thiss long-standing core competencies will endure in thisfunding environment (science, robotic missions, technology, etc.)funding environment (science, robotic missions, technology, etc.)

oo Particular challenges for NASA current stated longer term goals associated with aParticular challenges for NASA current stated longer term goals associated with alunar base and/or ambitious lunar surface operationslunar base and/or ambitious lunar surface operations

oo Future industry/national science and technology base will be significantlyFuture industry/national science and technology base will be significantlydiminished (barring investments by private sector and/or diminished (barring investments by private sector and/or DOD and/or otherDOD and/or otherAgencies)Agencies)

pg. pg. 1717




•• Given the following assumptionsGiven the following assumptions……

oo The Space Shuttle stops flying c. 2010The Space Shuttle stops flying c. 2010

oo The International Space Station assembly is completed before the SpaceThe International Space Station assembly is completed before the SpaceShuttle stops flyingShuttle stops flying

•• Then, 3 scenarios seem plausible in the coming 2-4 yearsThen, 3 scenarios seem plausible in the coming 2-4 years

oo Continuation of policy and programs as currently framedContinuation of policy and programs as currently framed

»» In this case, additional reductions in science, research and technology seemIn this case, additional reductions in science, research and technology seemalmost inevitable (for example, see W. almost inevitable (for example, see W. Gruehl Gruehl analysis, c. 1987).analysis, c. 1987).

oo Change in policy back toward the original Vision for Space ExplorationChange in policy back toward the original Vision for Space Exploration

»» In this case, a rebalancing of program content toward the 2005-2009In this case, a rebalancing of program content toward the 2005-2009PresidentPresident’’s Budget levels seems likely and a delay of several years ins Budget levels seems likely and a delay of several years inaccomplishing major milestones from 2004 VSE policyaccomplishing major milestones from 2004 VSE policy

oo Change in policy back to Change in policy back to ““before the Vision for Space Explorationbefore the Vision for Space Exploration””

»» In this case (given Shuttle flights stop in 2010), human space flight is inIn this case (given Shuttle flights stop in 2010), human space flight is insubstantial disarray for several years, and perhaps substantial disarray for several years, and perhaps ‘‘at riskat risk’’

There are no There are no ““goodgood”” solutions at this point solutions at this point……only various only various ‘‘badbad’’ ones ones

pg. pg. 1818




•• Some thoughts for AIAA Technical Committees and membersSome thoughts for AIAA Technical Committees and members

oo Need to better understand effects of current dramatic changes inNeed to better understand effects of current dramatic changes inNational Space Program program scope on AIAA membershipNational Space Program program scope on AIAA membership

oo Need to carefully monitor any additional changes in program scope,Need to carefully monitor any additional changes in program scope,performanceperformance

»» For example, significant schedule delays, cost overruns within currentFor example, significant schedule delays, cost overruns within currentprogram scope could seriously damage political support for human spaceprogram scope could seriously damage political support for human spaceflightflight

oo Need to consider advocating changes in current U.S. programs and/orNeed to consider advocating changes in current U.S. programs and/orpolicies; options include:policies; options include:

»» Advocate changes in funding for Space R&T and Aeronautics R&T in other U.S.Advocate changes in funding for Space R&T and Aeronautics R&T in other U.S.Government AgenciesGovernment Agencies

»» Advocate changes in NASA implementation planning for VSE, butAdvocate changes in NASA implementation planning for VSE, but……

»» Seek (distributed) funding at corporate level to prepare for future Seek (distributed) funding at corporate level to prepare for future ‘‘needneed’’

BACK UP SLIDESBACK UP SLIDES

pg. pg. 2020



2004: Goals of the Vision for Space Exploration2004: Goals of the Vision for Space Exploration

pg. pg. 2121



Likelihood of Space Systems Development Cost OverrunsLikelihood of Space Systems Development Cost OverrunsReference: W. Reference: W. Gruehl Gruehl Data (c. 1987)Data (c. 1987)

! The possibility of cost overruns and the resulting“opportunity” costs is a significant point for concern inany major systems development effort

! Past studies have indicated that a critical discriminatoris the ‘percentage of total cost’ invested prior todesign finalization and cost estimation

! A “system development-rich” program, with minimalspecific investments to date has a high probability ofincreases in cost

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