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2006, FJA-311-06 Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC. 1...
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Transcript of 2006, FJA-311-06 Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC. 1...
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC. 11
A Radically Simple A Radically Simple ApproachApproach
To Reducing ReturnsTo Reducing Returns
“Returns In A Box”“Returns In A Box”
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
22
IntroductionIntroduction The Model For Reducing The Model For Reducing
ReturnsReturns ““The Returns In A Box” (RIAB) The Returns In A Box” (RIAB)
ToolTool Demonstrated CapabilityDemonstrated Capability Implementing The RIAB Implementing The RIAB
ApproachApproach
Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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Why is effective reduction of returns important to the industry?
A Sample Of Recent Returns Issues In The Industry Press:
• Studios Stricter With Returns, Universal Leads With 15% Cap; Warner, Buena Vista At 20% - Video Business 3/31/06
• Disc Return Snafus Cause Studios Grief, Pixar Revised Guidance To Leave Bigger Cushion For “Incredibles” Returns – Variety 7/24/05
• Price Cuts Come Earlier To Nix Need For Returns – Video Business 6/3/05
• Suppliers Hit With Faster Returns As Inventory Efficiency Tightens – Video Business 5/27/05
• Indies Adopt Inventory Control, Ventura, Platinum Using VMI Systems – Video Business 8/5/05
The Industry Needs A Tool That Forecasts Demand +90% Accurate Based On First Day Sales
Introduction – Entertainment Introduction – Entertainment IndustryIndustry
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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What Is Returns In A Box (RIAB)?
• End To End Process Review And Alignment
• A Re-ship Tool
• An Initial Ship Tool
• A Performance Reporting Tool
• A New Capability That Explicitly Links Initial Ship Quantities And Supply Chain Capabilities To Re-ship Needs
• A Way To Manage Inventory Risks
Introduction – Returns In A BoxIntroduction – Returns In A Box
A Straight Forward Approach To Simultaneously Reducing Returns, Obsolescence and Stock Outs By Only Having To Manage Key Releases
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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How Does The RIAB Tool Work?
• FJA’s Tool Uses An Innovative Approach To Historical Sales Trends To Serve As The Basis For Forecasting Retailer Inventory
• FJA’s Approach Allows Equal Use Of All Data Instead Of “Like-Type” Algorithms That Only Uses Some Of The Data
• The RIAB Tool Can Be Used For Either Customer Or Territory Specific Forecasting, Or Global-level Forecasting
• Leverages Most Recent Data To Avoid Basing Decisions On Outdated Decay Curves
Introduction (RIAB cont.)Introduction (RIAB cont.)
FJA Has Developed An Innovative Approach To Forecasting That Does Not Rely On “Like-Type” Analysis
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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How Accurate Is The Tool?
• The RIAB Tool Has Consistently Shown +90% Forecasting Accuracy From The First Sales Data Point Available (Eg. Hour 1, Day 1, Week 1, Etc.).
• Other Tools Typically Need Multiple Data Points To Achieve The Same Level Of Accuracy. Thus, Useful Accuracy Is Achieved Only After The Critical Period Has Passed
• Focuses the analysis on the drivers of returns: those releases that drive >80% of your returns
Introduction (RIAB cont.)Introduction (RIAB cont.)
Consistently Demonstrated +90% Accuracy From Only The First Point Of Sales Information
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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Business InputsBusiness InputsBusiness InputsBusiness Inputs Performance OutputsPerformance OutputsPerformance OutputsPerformance Outputs
People and policiesPeople and policiesPeople and policiesPeople and policies
MaterialMaterialMaterialMaterial
InformationInformationInformationInformation
QualityQualityQualityQuality
CostCostCostCost
DeliveryDeliveryDeliveryDelivery
Supply Chain
Capability
Feedback loop
Initial Ship
Forecast Re-Ship
Management
Effective Management Of Returns Requires Explicit Connection Of The Key Process Factors Based On Best Practice Capabilities
Key Process FactorsKey Process FactorsKey Process FactorsKey Process Factors
Managing ReturnsManaging Returns
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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Initial Ship
Re-Ship
Supply ChainCapability
The RIAB ToolThe RIAB Tool
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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1. Enter Estimated Sales (1 day, 1 week, 2 weeks, etc.)
2. Enter Proposed Initial Ship Quantity
3. Examine WOS
4. Adjust Initial Ship Quantity As Needed
Example: Initial ShipExample: Initial Ship
A Simple Interactive Approach To Establishing Initial Ship
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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1. Enter Actual Sales 2. Examine Estimated Sales and WOS
3. Plan Potential Reship
Example: Re-ShipExample: Re-Ship
Forecast With +90% Accuracy The 1st Month Sales Based On Day 1 Sell-Thru
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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• Deployed In ’06 Q1 World-Wide at One of the Largest Music Companies in the World
• Reduced Overall Unnecessary Shipments From Q1 ‘05 to Q1 ‘06 By > 26%
• Value Of Savings (COGS only) For Q1 2006 > $5.5 M
• Reduced Risk And Occurrence Of Stock Outs
Savings From A Single 1M Unit Release are Typically $312,000
Demonstrated CapabilityDemonstrated Capability
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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• Process Assessment• Initial Data Request
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3
• Data Rec’d / Tool Built• Develop Case Studies
Wk 4
• Validate Tool • Project Milestone Review• Develop Rollout Plans For After Pilot Is Complete
• Client Gathers Data• Define New Process Straw man
Wk 5 Wk X
• Initiate Training• Formal Process & Tool Handoff
Wk 8
• Post Pilot Roll-out Until Full Implementation Has Been Accomplished
Implementation Summary:• Overall FJA Timeline – 8 Weeks• On-Site – 4 Weeks• Remote Support – 4 Weeks
Wk Y
• Pilot
…
Key Activities: Map Out Development, Release and Post-Release Process Collect Necessary Data Validate Tool Accuracy Via Cast Studies Conduct Pilot Full-Scale Launch
Implementation Activities/TimelineImplementation Activities/Timeline
Deployment In Only 8 Weeks!!
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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Let FJA Provide A Live Let FJA Provide A Live DemonstrationDemonstration
2006, FJA-311-062006, FJA-311-06
Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, Confidential – Do Not Distribute - Property of FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.INC.
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FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.FULLER, JONES & ASSOCIATES, INC.www.fullerjonesassociates.comwww.fullerjonesassociates.com4000 Pimlico Drive, Suite 1144000 Pimlico Drive, Suite 114
Pleasanton, CA 94588Pleasanton, CA 94588Tel: 866-479-4979Tel: 866-479-4979Fax: 925-931-0136Fax: 925-931-0136
Dr. Howard T. Fuller Dr. Howard T. Fuller Andrew M. Jones, MBA Andrew M. Jones, [email protected]@fullerjonesassociates.com
[email protected]@fullerjonesassociates.comDirect: 925-413-2255 Direct: 925-413-2255 Direct: 925-922-1225 Direct: 925-922-1225
Thank You!Thank You!