2006-based Household Projections,In England

Allan CoxHMPA, CLG

Presentation to Popgroup14th September 2009

Overview

1. Why we produce the projections

2. How the projections are updated

3. Headline figures

4. Comparisons with previous projections

5. What Next?

1. Why we produce the projections

• Provide long term view on number of households given projected population and previous demographic trends.

• Important part of evidence base for assessment & planning of future housing requirements

• PPS3 requires RSSs to have regard to current and future demographic trends and profiles, including the household projections

• Also used by CLG, OGDs, NHPAU, RPBs, LAs, etc

2. How the projections are updated

•Method unchanged from previous projections•ONS Population Projections

• Population by age and gender:• Assumptions on fertility (1.85), longevity (83.0 males), net migration

(171,500)• Cohort method• Marital / cohabitation status projections

•CLG Household Projections• Main inputs

• Home population• Institutional population• Household formation rates (household representative rates)

• Multiply population projection by household representative rate

2. How the projections are updated Population Projections

(numbers and age structure)

Projection of Marital Status and

Cohabitation

Projections of Population by Marital Status Groups

Projection of Population in Institutions

Projections of Private Household Population (by marital status)

Projection of Household

Representative Rates

Un-controlled Projections of Household Representatives (by age, gender. marital status and

household type)

Top-down Control Process to Ensure "Local" Projections Add up to National

Projection "Controlled" Projection of

Households (by above typology)

3. Headline Figures

2006- Based Household Projections: Key Headline Figures

3. Headline figures – by type

Households in England projected to grow from 21.5 million in 2006 to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million or 252,100 per year.

Nearly two-thirds of increase is in one person households (163,100 per year).

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

Th

ou

san

d H

ouse

ho

lds

Married Couple Cohabiting Couple Lone Parent Other multi-person One Person

3. Headline figures – by household size

By 2031, 18 per cent of the total population in England is projected to live alone compared with 13 per cent in 2006

decrease in average household size from 2.32 persons per household in 2006 to 2.13 persons per household in 2031.

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

2006-based Final 2004-based

3. Headline figures – by age of head of household

Just over half of the increase in households is in those headed by someone aged 65 or over.

By 2031, a third of households will be headed by those aged 65 or over compared with a quarter in 2006

Households, by age of head of household

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Under25

25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85 &over

Age of household representative

Tho

usan

d ho

useh

olds

2006

2031

3. Headline figures - Drivers of household growth

Population growth = 74% of household growth

No change in the level or age structure of population -> household growth of 35,500 per year year.

Household formation = 18% household growth

* Scenarios whilst all other factors held constant

Average annual change*

% contribution

Population level 187 74%

Age structure 30 12%

Marital status 15 6%

HRR 44 18%

Remainder - 24 -9%

Total 252

Impact of variant population projections

Low variant Principal High variant

Fertility (average number of children per woman) 1.65 1.85 2.05

Mortality (life expectancy at birth, 2031)

Males 81.0 83.0 84.9

Females 85.1 86.4 87.6

Net migration from 2014/15 111,500 171,500 231,500

ONS variant population projections show effect of assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and net migration on future levels of the population.

These give a broad indication of the sensitivity of the household projections to the demographic assumptions.

Variant Projections(1) Fertility

Little change in households under fertility variants (25 year projection period) -

Variant projections: Population & households FERTILITY

050

100150

200250

300350

400450

500

Households PopulationAve

rage

ann

ual c

hang

e 20

06-2

031

('000

)

Low Base High

Impact of variant population projections(2) Life Expectancy

high/low life expectancy variants -> difference of +/- 12,000 households per year around principal projection.

Mainly concentrated in married couple and one person households, reflecting the age structure of these household types

Variant projections: Population & households LIFE EXPECTANCY

050

100150

200250

300350

400450

500

Households PopulationAve

rage

ann

ual c

hang

e 20

06-2

031

('000

)

Low Base High

Impact of variant population projections(3) Migration

The migration variants change the number of households formed by 2031 by +/- 3%, range from 27.1m to 28.6m around principal of 27.8m.

Equates to 31-33 thousand per year. Low migration scenario leads to 221,000 average annual increase.

Variant projections: Population & households MIGRATION

050

100150

200250

300350

400450

500

Households PopulationAve

rage

ann

ual c

hang

e 20

06-2

031

('000

)

Low Base High Zero

Variant projections(3) Migration

Zero net migration -> suggests migration accounts for two-fifths of growth in households to 2031.

Household projections under migration variants

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Tho

usa

nd

Ho

use

hold

s

Principal Low Migration High Migration Zero net migration

3. Headline figures – by region

South East has largest absolute increase in households of 39,100 per year, or 28 per cent of the 2006 level.

The North East shows the smallest growth in households at 8,300 per year, or 19 per cent of the 2006 level.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

 North East  North West  Yorkshire &

Humber

 East

Midlands

 West

Midlands

 East  London  South East  South West

2006 2031

3. Headline figures – by region

Some key results by region

Average annual

change

% increase from one

person

Average hh size (2031)

% over 65 in 2031

North East 8.3 78 2.06 35

North West 27.4 74 2.09 32

Yorkshire & The Humber 30.0 54 2.12 31

East Midlands 27.6 55 2.12 33

West Midlands 21.0 71 2.17 34

East 33.6 60 2.14 34

London 33.5 68 2.18 22

South East 39.1 70 2.16 35

South West 31.6 62 2.07 36

England 252.1 65 2.13 32

4. Comparison with previous projections

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

Nu

mb

er o

f h

ou

seh

old

s (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

2004-based

2006-based

4. Comparison with previous projections

Yorkshire and The Humber and East Midlands see largest absolute upwards revisions, London sees smallest – reflects regional distribution of population

Thousands 06 based projection 04 based projection

Average annual change 2006 - 2026

Average annual change 2006 - 2026 Difference % change

North East 9 6 2.5 40%

North West 28 26 2.7 11%

Yorkshire & the Humber 31 23 7.3 31%

East Midlands 28 22 6.1 28%

West Midlands 22 18 3.1 17%

East 34 30 4.5 15%

London 34 33 1.4 4%

South East 40 36 4.0 11%

South West 32 29 3.4 12%

England 258 223 35 16%

5. What Next?

19 Dec 2008“Options for the Future of the Household Projections Model: A Final Report”

11 Mar 20092006-Based Household Estimates and Projections (existing methodology)

Summer 2009Seeking users views on household typology (CLG Questionnaire)______________________________________________________________

December 2009Testing methodological changes to the household projection model

Spring 20102008-Based Sub National Population Projections

20112008-Based Household Estimates and Projections (alternative methodology?)

5. What next?

Results of the CLG Household Typology Questionnaire

5. What next?

- Results of the CLG Household Typology Questionnaire:(41 responses)

- To what extent do the household types in England’s household projections currently meet your requirements?

Not at all 1A Bit 2Partly 15Mainly 19Fully 4% Mainly or Fully 56%

Despite this, nearly three quarters (73%) said they wanted to see a change to the household typology.

5. What next? - Typology in England

- Results of the CLG Household Typology Questionnaire:

- 41% of respondents felt that marital status was very or most important

Other factors:

51% for number of children in household

53% number of concealed households

56% number of adults in household

68% total size of household was very or most important

5. What next?- Typology in Northern Ireland

-Household Types in Northern Ireland

-Size categories of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5+ persons

-Household Types:- Single Person- Two adults without children- Other households without children- Lone adult with children- Other households with children

- 28% of respondents felt that the household typology used in Northern Ireland would meet their requirements.

5. What next?- Typology in Scotland

-Household Types in Scotland

- 1 Person - 1 adult male- 1 adult female

- 2 Persons - 2 adults- 1 adult, 1 child

- 3+ Persons - 1 adult, 2+ children- 2+ adults, 1+ children- 3+ adults

- 33% of respondents felt that the household typology used in Scotland would meet their requirements.

5. What next?- Typology in Wales

-Household Types in Wales

- Single person households:- 1 person

-Other households without children- 2 person (no children)- 3 person (no children)- 4 person (no children)- 5+ person (no children)

Lone adult household with children- 2 person (1 adult + 1 child)- 3 person (1 adult + 2 children)

5. What next?- Typology in Wales

-(Wales, continued)

-Lone adult household with children- 4 person (1 adult + 3 child)- 5+ person (1 adult & 4+ children)

Other households with children- 3 person (2 adult + 1 child)- 4 person (2+ adults & 1+ child)- 5+ person (2+ adults & 1+ child)

- 58% of respondents felt that the household typology used in Wales would meet their requirements.

5. What next?

-Testing methodological changes to the household projection model

- The review will test 4 alternative methodologies against the 2006-based household projections.

- The review will offer recommendations for the methodology used in updating the 2008-based household projections.

5. Methodology Review

Option 1 – simplifying the projections

- A time series / cohort model based on standard five year age bands only.

- No disaggregation by household type, gender or marital status.

- Cohort modelling only applied at the 40-44 age band and above.

5. Methodology Review

Option 2 – amending LFS weights

- Amend the weight given to the LFS data against the Census data.

- More weight given to the LFS data.

5. Methodology Review

Option 3 – amending household types

- Commission new census tables to revise the household type breakdown.

- Include the household type and the number of children in the household.

5. Methodology Review

Option 4 – controlling

- Updating the projections by applying earlier versions of the household representative rates to the LA population projections

- Updating the projections by applying new household representative rates to the old LA population projections

- To calculate the projections at LA level, without constraining to national level

5. Methodology Review

“Options for the Future of the Household Projections Model: A Final Report”

- will test the accuracy of each recommendation against the 2006-based projections

- will offer a recommendation for each option

- results published in December 2009

Household Projections Weblink:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/householdestimates/

Contact Details:

e-mail - Allan.cox@communities.gsi.gov.ukphone - 020 7944 3308