2002 - The Carbon Trust - Low Carbon Energy Assessment
Transcript of 2002 - The Carbon Trust - Low Carbon Energy Assessment
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Low Carbon Technology Assessment 2002 -
Making Our Investment Count
Making business sense of climate change
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Low Carbon Technology Assessment 2002
Contents Page
Purpose of this research 2
Background and scope 3
Overview of approach 4
Results of the assessment 6
Technology profiles 8
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Purpose of this research
The Carbon Trust was set up in March 2001 as partof the UKs Climate Change Programme.Its establishment followed agreement betweenbusiness and Government that a new independentbody was needed to:
Help UK business and the public sectorcontribute to meeting goals for reducinggreenhouse gas emissions;
Help create a low carbon technology sector in
the UK; and Begin the move towards a low carbon economy.
Making the transition to a low carbon economy will
require a step change in the use of renewable energy
and major improvements in energy efficiency across all
sectors. With these challenges in mind, the Prime
Minister has given the Carbon Trust a remit to take the
lead in the field of low carbon technology innovation.
The Carbon Trust believes that, to do this effectively
with the resources available, it needs to focus on
technologies that offer the greatest carbon saving
potential and where the Carbon Trusts investment can
make a material difference to the development and
commercialisation of that technology.
With this in mind the Carbon Trust developed the Low
Carbon Innovation Programme (LCIP) to accelerate the
development and commercialisation of new and
emerging low carbon technologies in the UK. LCIP acts
in a similar manner to a venture capital company
seeking the best carbon return, rather than a specific
financial return, although LCIP seeks an appropriate
financial return where possible.
Many low carbon technologies exist, all at varying
stages of development. To help identify where LCIP
should concentrate its investment, the Carbon Trust
commissioned a Low Carbon Technology Assessment.
The supporting analysis for this work was carried out
by Future Energy Solutions (from AEA Technology)
and Building Research Establishment on behalf of
the Carbon Trust.
The aims of this publication are to give potential
proposers to LCIP and co-investors a clearer view on
how LCIP intends to focus its resources and more
generally to make stakeholders aware of the
assessment and its role within LCIP. It is the Carbon
Trusts intention to keep this assessment under review
and we will be updating it annually.
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Background and scope
The Foundation Programme which was launched inMay 2002, is the initial part of a much larger and morecomprehensive funding programme, the Low CarbonInnovation Programme (LCIP) which shouldbe launched in 2003. Over the next three years,LCIP plans to invest a total of 75 million in selectedtechnologies and businesses that can help the UKmove towards a low carbon economy.
The Low Carbon Technology Assessment was commissioned
to help LCIP make best use of its investment resource.
It was designed to give guidance on those technology groupswith substantial potential for carbon emissions reduction
and where LCIP investment can make a material difference
to the technologys advancement given other public/private
sector funding.
The assessment identified technologies with the potential
to contribute to the transition to a low carbon economy.
As a starting point, it took the review of energy
technologies compiled by the Chief Scientific Advisers
Energy Research Review Group in February 2002.
The list was added to and refined as the assessment
progressed and currently includes 49 technologies.
This represents a comprehensive though by no means
exhaustive list of key carbon saving technologies varying
considerably in scale, maturity, and field of application.
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Demand - sidebuildings:
Building fabric Controls & building
energy management
systems
Cooling
Heating
Integrated building
design
Lighting
Ventilation
Demand - sideindustry:
Alternative
equipment
Combustion
technologies
Materials
Process control
Process
intensification
Separation
technologies
Waste heat recovery
Supply - side: fuels& conventionalenergy production
Carbon dioxidesequestration
CHP advanced
macro
CHP domestic micro
Cleaner coal
combustion
Coal bed methane
Fuel cells - baseload
power
Fuel cells -
domestic CHP Fuel cells -
industrial &
commercial
Nuclear fission
Nuclear fusion
Ultra high efficiency
combined cycle gas
turbines (CCGT)
Waste to energy
Supply - side:renewables
Biomass - localelectricity
generation
Biomass - local heat
generation
Geothermal
Low - head hydro
Photoconversion
Solar photovoltaic
Solar thermal
electric (high -
temperaturegeneration)
Solar water -
heating collectors
Tidal energy -
lagoons & barrages
Tidal stream
Wave energy -
offshore /
nearshore devices
Wave energy -
shoreline devices
Wind power -
onshore & offshore
Transport:
Biomass - transport Fuel cells - transport
High efficiency
automotive
Enablingtechnologies
Electricity storagetechnolgies
High voltage direct
current (HVDC)
transmission to
shore
Hydrogen
infrastructure
(including transport)
Hydrogen
production
Hydrogen storage &
distribution Intermediate energy
vectors
Smart metering
Overview of technologies reviewed
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Overview of approach
The 49 technologies identified were evaluatedusing the process developed as part of theassessment exercise.
The key stages in this process were:
1. Establishment of assessment criteria
Seven criteria were developed to assess each
technology. They were formulated based on the
objectives of LCIP itself and on the overall goals
of the Carbon Trust. The issues of carbon saving
potential and LCIP materiality are at the heart of
these criteria, which can be summarised as follows:
(i) What scope is there for this technology to
reduce carbon emissions at a competitive cost
in the short, medium and long term/what is
the overall commercial potential?
(ii) What scope is there for this technology to
contribute to the development of the low
carbon technology industry and knowledge
base in the UK?
(iii) What might be the risks of investing in
this technology?
(iv) What spin-off benefits might arise from
supporting this technology?
(v) Could LCIP funding make a material difference
to the short, medium and long term
development of this technologys progress?
(vi) Could LCIP funding stimulate investment from
other funding sources?
(vii) Could LCIP help to address barriers slowing
the take-up of this technology?
2. Development of a scoring system
A scoring system was developed to objectively
score each of the criteria outlined above.
These individual scores were then combined
into two overall scores for each technology:
one for Technology Impact (largely based on
carbon saving potential and economic viability)
and one for LCIP Impact (based on the extent
to which LCIP funding could make a material
difference to the technologys progress).
3. Production of technology summaries
For each technology, an expert in the field
produced a short summary of its current status,
future potential and the barriers impeding its
development. The template for these summaries
ensured that information relevant to the seven
main criteria was set out in a consistent manner.
4. Preliminary scoring
Each technology was scored using the technology
summary and the scoring system outlined above.
5. Moderation process
To ensure that the key features of all technologies
were being assessed consistently, a moderation
process was applied at this stage. This included
peer review by the Technology Advisory Group
to the Carbon Trust.
6. Final scoring
Each technology was given a final score, based
on input given in step 5.
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Overview of approach
The final scores were used to place eachtechnology in one of the following categories:FOCUS, CONSIDER, MONITOR or REVIEWPERIODICALLY. These categories are depicted inthe chart below.
The Carbon Trusts intention is that FOCUS
(and CONSIDER) technologies should comprise the
core of LCIPs investment portfolio.
Technologies in the CONSIDER category will need to
demonstrate the potential for breakthroughs whichcould increase their technology impact i.e. they
have to have game changing potential to deliver
large carbon savings.
Meanwhile, the onus will be on proponents of
technologies classified under MONITOR and REVIEW
PERIODICALLY seeking funding from LCIP to make a
clear case for the carbon reduction potential of the
technology and for LCIPs materiality in bringing the
technology to market. In addition, although this review
focused on overall technology groups we will also
consider proposals in the MONITOR and REVIEW
PERIODICALLY categories for sub-technologies, enabling
technologies, system components etc. if they can
demonstrate sufficient technology and LCIP impact.
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MONITOR:
Technologies with high carbon saving potential
but where LCIP investment would not make a
material difference
LCIP will not invest in these technologies at this
point, but will maintain a watching brief
FOCUS:
Technologies with high carbon saving potential
and where LCIP investment would make a
material difference
These technologies will represent the core of
the portfolio of projects in which LCIP invests
REVIEW PERIODICALLY:
Technologies with low carbon saving potential
and where LCIP investment would not make a
material difference
LCIP will not invest in these technologies at this
point, but will reassess them periodically
CONSIDER:
Technologies with low carbon saving potential
but where LCIP investment might make a
material difference
These technologies will attract LCIP investment
if a proposed project has the potential to
impact fundamentally on the carbon - saving
performance of the technology concerned
Technology categorisation
High
Low
Low HighLCIP Impact
TechnologyImpact
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Results of the assessment
The outcome of the assessment is summarised below:
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MONITOR: Biomass for transport
Building controls Carbon dioxide
sequestration
Fuel cells (transport,baseload power)
Industry (alternativeequipment)
Nuclear fission
Smart metering
Ultra-high efficiencyCCGT
Waste to energy
Wind - onshoreand offshore
FOCUS: Biomass for local heat
generation
Building (fabric,heating, ventilation,cooling, integrateddesign)
CHP (domestic micro,advanced macro)
Fuel cells (domesticCHP, industrial andcommercial)
Hydrogen(infrastructure -including transport,production, storageand distribution)
Industry (combustiontechnologies,materials, processcontrol, processintensification,separationtechnologies)
REVIEW PERIODICALLY:
Cleaner coalcombustion
Geothermal
High efficiencyautomotive
HVDC transmission
Intermediate energyvectors
Low head hydro
Nuclear fusion
Solar thermal electric Tidal (lagoons,
barrages)
CONSIDER:
Biomass for localelectricity generation
Building (lighting)
Coal-bed methane
Electricity storagetechnologies
Industry (waste heatrecovery)
Photoconversion
Solar photovoltaics
Solar water heatingcollectors
Tidal stream
Wave (offshore,nearshore devices andshoreline)
Overall findings from assessment
High
Low
Low HighLCIP Impact
TechnologyImpact
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Results of the assessment
The Low Carbon Technology Assessmentprovides a snapshot of a situation that isconstantly evolving as markets change,technologies develop and new options emerge.The Carbon Trust will commission further workto ensure that its understanding keeps pacewith these developments and to incorporate abroad range of input.
We intend to rerun the exercise during 2003 and
would welcome input from interested parties on
the potential of relevant technologies to help theUK move towards a low carbon economy. We have
set up a dedicated e-mail address to capture input
We believe that the Low Carbon Technology Assessment
will provide a useful tool to inform decision-making in
the Low Carbon Innovation Programme.
In all cases, proposers into LCIP need to demonstrate
their ability to deliver against the following criteria:
1. Does the proposal demonstrate the potential for
material savings in carbon dioxide emissions?
2. Does the proposal contain an innovative element,
i.e. a step change in technology design or in the
application of a technology or process?
3. Does the proposal clearly identify a route to
commercial viability or the potential to progress
to the next stage in the innovation chain?
4. Has the proposer demonstrated that the proposal
would not be taken forward in a timely manner
without LCIP funding or that LCIP brings an extra
dimension to the proposal?
5. Will the proposals funding be leveraged through
other sources of finance? Will duplication of other
UK and internationally funded work be avoided?
6. Has the proposer shown an awareness of the
technical and commercial risks within the proposal?
7. Does the proposal demonstrate a plan for
successful delivery of the proposals objectives?
8. Does the proposal benefit the UK?
9. Does the proposal balance the potential to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions against
other environmental targets?
10. Does the proposal conform with the strategicobjectives of the Carbon Trust and LCIP?
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Technology profiles: FOCUS
This final section indicates the category towhich each of the 49 technologies is currentlyassigned, as a result of the Low CarbonTechnology Assessment. It also outlines someof the key characteristics of each technology.
Biomass for Local Heat Generation
Biomass fuel can be combusted to provide heat in fully
automated boilers that are readily available from a
large number of manufacturers around the world.
Although the development of the market for biomass
heat in the UK offers significant scope for carbonsavings at modest cost, the high cost of biomass
boilers compared with fossil fuel units of equivalent
size and the lack of fuel supply infrastructure
represent major barriers to take-up. Addressing
these barriers will depend on a volume market for
biomass becoming established.
Building Cooling
The cooling of buildings is a growing market that, due
to reliance on electricity-powered systems, could be
a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions in the
future. Although more environmentally friendly
cooling systems based on gas and other alternativesare being introduced, barriers to their take-up exist
in the UK, such as a lack of sales, service and support
infrastructure. Moreover, there is no UK manufacturing
capability that can meet growing demand for
alternative systems of this kind.
Building Fabric
Over the last 25 years, considerable advances have
been made in materials and in construction technologies
related to insulated faade engineering and insulated
glazing. However, these advances have not always fed
through into production and procurement processes,
due to conservatism and lack of awareness within theconstruction industry and among its clients. Progress in
this area is a prerequisite if the significant carbon saving
potential of new building fabric technologies is to be
realised and the industry is to invest further in the
development of new ideas. In addition high efficiency
insulants would have a major impact on emissions.
Building Heating
Domestic heating is a mature sector, with both
understanding and development of boiler technology
well advanced. Although condensing and other more
efficient boilers offer substantial carbon saving
potential, a range of non-technical barriers areimpeding market penetration. The most significant
barriers include lack of market awareness and lack
of installer/equipment accreditation. Moreover,
installers are often reluctant to recommend the
installation of condensing boilers. A lack of
understanding also exists regarding the way that
domestic users interact with heating control systems.
Building Integrated Design
Building integrated design, based on close collaboration
between the design team and the client, can reduce
the need for energy-intensive building services by
making greater use of natural lighting, heating,cooling and ventilation. Considerable carbon savings
are achievable in both new and refurbished buildings,
mainly because this technique enables the carbon
saving potential of other technologies to be realised.
Current building custom and practice, often militates
against the adoption of this approach. In general, there
is also a lack of awareness among building developers
and occupiers of the economic, environmental, health,
productivity and other commercial benefits that
building integrated design can provide.
Building Ventilation
Improved systems and controls for natural andmechanical ventilation have the potential to significantly
reduce the amount of energy used by services within
buildings (both new and refurbished). The considerable
carbon reductions offered by these improvements are
likely to be very cost effective, particularly when
synergies between heating and cooling are exploited.
However, the strongly price-driven nature of this
mature market acts as a barrier to investment in
innovation. Overall, this is a low risk technology that
is well matched to the skills and resources that are
currently available in the UK.
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Technology profiles: FOCUS
Hydrogen Storage & Distribution
The widespread use of hydrogen as an energy carrier,
and the significant carbon savings that could result,
will require the development of storage and
distribution technologies that are safe and efficient.
This presents a number of challenges in terms of cost
and engineering. As well as the delivery of the
necessary technologies, the public will need to be
convinced about the safety of storing and distributing
hydrogen. In the UK, significant effort will be needed
to catch up and then keep pace with progress beingmade in other parts of the world.
Industry Combustion Technologies
Increasing the efficiency of combustion technologies
used by high temperature industries has the potential
to deliver considerable energy and carbon savings.
This could be achieved through the development of
new technologies as well as the wider take-up of
existing ones. Although the UK has considerable
expertise in this field, recent years have seen a
reduced focus on long term R&D and on the
maintenance and development of the skills base
needed to ensure progress in this sector.
Industry Materials
Improvements in materials technology have the
potential to deliver significant savings in industrial
energy use. These improvements include the
development of new materials, better ways of using
existing materials, and new processing methods.
Scope could exist for the UK to develop a capability in
the niche markets of ceramics, specialist metals and
equipment manufacture, although the feasibility of
doing this has not yet been assessed. A gap is evident
between academic research and industry, and a lack
of investment has also been apparent in applicationsengineering focused on energy and carbon saving.
Industry Process Control
Covering a wide variety of different technologies,
better control and automation of industrial processes
has the potential to realise considerable energy and
carbon savings across the full range of industry
sectors. Although the market is dominated by a
handful of multinationals, small UK companies
operate successfully in the niche areas of sensors,
software tools and applications engineering.
These companies have the potential both to develop
new process control and automation products and tobring them to the marketplace.
Industry Process Intensification
Replacing conventional industrial plant with smaller
plant of the same capacity can offer a range of
benefits, including lower capital costs and improved
energy efficiency. However, the development of
unconventional plant of this kind is commonly viewed
as high-risk and often needs substantial R&D. As a
result, only a few examples (mainly heat exchangers,
reactors and separation plant) have been developed
and used commercially to date. The UK currently has
excellent R&D expertise in this field.
Industry Separation Technologies
The separation technologies currently used by the
chemical, pharmaceutical and other industrial sectors
are generally well proven. They include membrane
processes, distillation, evaporation, drying and
crystallisation, with the UK having particular skills in
the first two of these areas. The fact that existing
technologies are so well established represents a
barrier to the take-up of more energy efficient options
that could deliver significant carbon savings. This lack
of awareness and confidence is compounded in
instances where the deployment of new technologieswould involve relatively high capital expenditure.
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Technology profiles: CONSIDER
Biomass for Local Electricity Generation
Solid fuels derived from plant materials can be
utilised by a range of technologies for the production
of baseload electricity. The use of standard
combustion/steam cycle plant for this purpose is
already commonplace in well-wooded parts of the
world, such as Scandinavia and North America.
However, because of their low conversion efficiency,
the small biomass power stations that would be
appropriate to fuel supply conditions and transport
infrastructure in the UK would produce high costelectricity. Advanced conversion plant offer the
prospect of much higher conversion efficiencies
and therefore lower cost power, but are not yet
fully commercialised.
Building Lighting
Energy efficient lighting and lighting control
technologies offer the potential for largely cost-effective
carbon savings, as well as improved comfort for
building occupiers. Advances in this area, such as the
development of new light sources and their control
gear, are mostly driven by the main companies active
within the sector. Although the technology is mature,scope does exist for UK involvement in future
developments. Lighting is a low-risk technology that
is well matched to the skills and resources currently
available in the UK.
Coal Bed Methane
Techniques for extracting and utilising the methane-rich
gas that occurs naturally in coal seams are fairly well
developed. The UK has considerable expertise in this
area. Although public perception and planning
permission represent substantial barriers to schemes
based on virgin coal seams, the extraction of the gas
from abandoned and operating mines may represent amore viable option. The technology is unlikely to make
a very significant contribution to carbon (equivalent)
savings in the UK in the short to medium term.
Electricity Storage Technologies
Significant power generation from renewable energy
sources, which are often intermittent, will require the
development of energy storage technologies. A range
of such technologies, including advanced batteries,
are currently in use or under development. However,
because electricity storage will only be needed when
renewables and CHP contribute more than 15-20% of
UK supply, these technologies are unlikely to make a
significant cost-effective contribution to carbon saving
in the UK in the short term. Economic viability will alsodepend on the establishment of an appropriate market
and regulatory system. Nevertheless, the UK could be
a key player in this area in the medium term, building
on the substantial expertise that already exists.
Industry Waste Heat Recovery
The many technologies available for the recovery and
use of waste heat generated by industrial processes
are generally well-established. Nevertheless, there is
scope to develop new ideas as well as to improve the
cost-competitiveness and therefore the deployment
rate of existing ones. The UK currently has a leading
position in some key waste heat recovery sectors, suchas compact heat exchangers.
Photoconversion
Photoconversion, which involves capturing the energy
in light using chemical, biological or electrochemical
systems, is primarily at the research stage, with a
move from the laboratory to industrial R&D a key
prerequisite to full commercialisation in the future.
The technology is unlikely to make a significant
contribution to carbon savings in the UK in the short
to medium term. However, the UK, which currently
has a small but active photoconversion research base,
could play an important role in the long term if thetechnology develops successfully.
Solar Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics (PV) involves the use of semiconductors
to generate electricity direct from sunlight. The main
technical challenge currently facing the substantial
worldwide PV industry is the need to reduce costs
while maintaining or improving performance. Although
it has strengths in niche areas, the UK is a relatively
small player in the field of PV and is likely to remain so
in the short to medium term. The technology is
unlikely to make a significant cost-effective
contribution to carbon saving in this country over thesame timeframe.
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Technology profiles: CONSIDER
Solar Water-Heating Collectors
The use of solar energy collectors to provide domestic
hot water and low temperature process heating is a
well-established technology where further
incremental improvements may be feasible.
Although the UK has capability in the manufacturing,
installation and servicing of solar water-heating
systems, the market in this country is currently small.
This is mainly because the cost of systems is high
compared with conventional alternatives and
because public awareness of the technology isgenerally low. To some extent, the second of these
barriers is compounded by the negative perceptions
that exist about the technology and its reliability,
owing to the fact that commercial delivery of solar
water-heating is not yet mature.
Tidal Stream
Tidal stream involves the use of rotors, either floating
in the sea or mounted on the sea bed, to harness the
energy contained in marine currents. The concept
requires no fundamentally new technologies and
development is now at the prototype stage.
At present, efforts are focused on proving thetechnical performance, efficiency and reliability of
different generator designs. Although the UK has a
significant tidal resource, the extent of its potential
take-up in this country is uncertain. Nevertheless, the
UK is one of only a handful of countries investigating
device concepts and, with longstanding expertise in
marine engineering, it could play a leading role in
tidal stream technology.
Wave Offshore/Nearshore Devices
A wide range of offshore and nearshore devices to
harness wave energy are currently under development
in the UK and elsewhere. None of these devices has yet
progressed beyond the scale prototype stage. Further
understanding of individual devices, their operation and
cost, engineering approaches to their construction and
their resilience to marine conditions are needed before
the technology can be considered viable. However, in
view of the UKs huge wave energy resource, a
substantial market could exist in this country for devicesthat are technically proven and cost-competitive.
Wave Shoreline Devices
There are currently many different designs of
shoreline wave energy device at various stages of
development. To date, a number of prototype plant
have been built both in the UK and elsewhere.
Overall, the technology is at an early stage of
development, with improvements in design,
construction and efficiency needed to reduce costs
to a competitive level. The UK has a significant
shoreline wave energy resource and is a leader in
the development of the technology.
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Technology profiles: MONITOR
Biomass for Transport
Biomass can be converted into carbon saving transport
fuels using both proven and emerging processes.
Two such fuels ethanol and biodiesel are currently
deployed commercially in some parts of the world.
Other fuels that are preferable to these from an
economic and environmental viewpoint are at earlier
stages of development. All biomass-derived transport
fuels cost considerably more than conventional petrol.
As a result, markets are essentially politically
driven for instance, in the UK, ethanol and biodieseldeployment will largely depend on whether and to
what extent these fuels are exempted from fuel duty.
Building Controls
Building controls and energy management systems
ensure that building services such as heating, lighting,
ventilation, cooling and air conditioning are only used
when needed and to the extent required. As a result
of their potential to have a major impact on the
amount of energy used by all such services, building
controls offer scope for substantial, cost-effective
carbon savings. The sector is fast moving and is already
receptive to technological advances in this field,with manufacturers undertaking their own R&D.
The technology is well matched to skills and resources
currently available in the UK.
Carbon Dioxide Sequestration
The sequestration of carbon dioxide could significantly
reduce UK emissions of this gas. While the use of
forestry as carbon dioxide sinks is a feasible option,
sequestration in the UK would generally require
technologies covering separation of carbon dioxide
(from fossil fuels or flue gases), transportation, and
final disposal or storage. It could most economically be
applied to large-scale emissions sources such as powerstations and oil refineries. The UK has a strong research,
technical and industrial base in this area, as well as
considerable potential disposal capacity, e.g. through
the use of carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery.
Fuel Cells Baseload Power
Fuel cells can operate using non-carbon fuels. Because
of their potential for high efficiency and low
maintenance, fuel cells could make a valuable
contribution to sustainable baseload power generation
in the UK in the longer term. Commercial application
will depend, however, on the achievement of capital
cost reductions and demonstration of fuel cells ability
to meet relevant requirements in terms of operating
life, durability and efficiency. This in turn will require
significant public and private sector investment indemonstration initiatives and field trials.
Fuel Cells Transport
Fuel cells, which can operate using non-carbon fuels,
are particularly suited to road transport applications.
Although precise commercial prospects are unclear,
significant sales of fuel cell powered vehicles are
commonly predicted and could make an important
contribution to carbon saving. The UK already has
a strong capability in many key areas of fuel cell
technology and significant commercial opportunities
could present themselves to UK industry as the
technology develops.
Industry Alternative Equipment
Increasing industrys use of more efficient ways of
providing heat, power and refrigeration, and of other
more efficient equipment, offers substantial scope
for energy and carbon savings. Potential options cover
a range of different technologies, including motors,
heat pumps, refrigeration systems, and alternative
drying and heating technologies. However, take-up is
slow because engineers tend to replace failing
components with similar products. While a significant
manufacturing capability for such equipment still
exists in the UK, in addition to substantial designexpertise, many companies have recently relocated
manufacturing operations overseas.
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Technology profiles: MONITOR
Nuclear Fission
Nuclear fission, in which uranium atoms are split to
release energy, forms the basis of all current nuclear
power capacity worldwide. The technology produces
very low carbon emissions and has the potential to
make a major contribution to carbon saving. In the last
two decades, though concerns over safety, waste and
the relatively high costs of nuclear electricity have led
to a considerable global slowdown in construction of
new plant. Designs for nuclear power stations are now
focusing on increased safety features and on deliveringlower cost power. However, the investment required to
develop the necessary demonstration and prototype
facilities and to undertake R&D into nuclear waste
disposal issues would be extremely large.
Smart Metering
Smart metering refers to utility metering that, because
it does not simply record the total number of units
used, enables consumers to be more energy efficient.
The technology, which is semi-mature, includes display
meters, remotely read meters and internet meters. It
has been estimated that smart metering could reduce
energy consumption in the UK by 5-10%, with significantcarbon savings as a result. No barriers are envisaged
preventing system manufacture, the main hurdles to
deployment being lack of consumer awareness and
potential unwillingness to pay extra for smart
metering, despite paybacks of 1-2 years.
Ultra High Efficiency CCGT
Over the coming years, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
(CCGT) technology is likely to continue to form the
basis of most major new power generation projects
in the UK. Although the technology is well established
and has become progressively more efficient, a
number of options could further enhance efficiencyand so deliver economic as well as significant
environmental benefits. These mainly comprise of
incremental improvements for the short term and
new technologies, such as switching to more
sustainable fuels, for the longer term. The UK is a
prominent player in CCGT technology and, in view
of the high levels of investment required in this field,
the UK industry should be involved in global
development initiatives to benefit from the results
and opportunities that arise.
Waste to Energy
Two main technologies are applicable to schemes that
combust municipal solid waste and capture the heat
produced: grate combustion systems, which are well
established and cost competitive in the UK and
overseas; and fluidised bed combustion systems, which
are not commercially proven in the UK but are used
elsewhere. Advanced options, such as gasification and
pyrolysis, are under development. Overall, waste to
energy has valuable greenhouse gas saving potential,
with precise performance depending on the carboncontent of the waste combusted. Although waste to
energy plant are likely to have a growing role in the
UK, they are expensive to build. Public perception
and planning permission are significant barriers.
Wind Onshore & Offshore
The use of turbines to convert the power of the wind
into electricity represents a growing market and is a
developed technology with significant carbon saving
potential in the UK and elsewhere. The key barriers
affecting onshore deployment in the UK are non-
technical, i.e. public acceptability and the securing
of planning permission for individual schemes.Offshore deployment is currently the subject of
development and demonstration work that aims to
reduce costs and to prove that the technology can
deliver acceptable levels of reliability and
availability. Although none of the worlds major wind
turbine manufacturers are UK companies, the wind
power skills base in this country currently includes
both developers and component manufacturers.
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Technology profiles: REVIEW PERIODICALLY
Cleaner Coal Combustion
Reducing carbon emissions from conventional coal
combustion can be achieved mainly by improving the
thermal efficiency of the combustion process.
A range of technologies and equipment, offering
economic as well as environmental benefits, have
already enabled improvements of this kind to be made.
Further significant carbon savings from better
thermal efficiency will require large-scale investment
in plant development and construction. The UK has a
sound knowledge base but a relatively weakindustrial/commercial base in this area. Opportunities
to carry new processes through to manufacturing may
therefore be limited.
Geothermal
The natural heat within the earth can be harnessed
as a carbon saving energy source by the exploitation of
aquifers naturally occurring deposits of hot water in
deep porous rocks underground. The technology to do
this is mature and well understood. However, UK aquifer
resources are low in temperature and their location is
not well matched with areas of high heat demand.
Hot Dry Rock technology the extraction of heat throughthe injection of water into dry rock formations could
represent a further means of capturing geothermal energy
but faces many technical barriers and is unlikely to be
competitive in the UK in the short to medium term.
High Efficiency Automotive Power Systems
The automotive power market is dominated by internal
combustion engines which run on fossil fuels. Limited
long-term scope exists to deliver further substantial fuel-
efficiency improvements from the basic internal
combustion engine concept. Moreover, increased vehicle
ownership and use means that any improvements that
are achieved are unlikely to result in an overallreduction in UK emissions of carbon dioxide. Engine
development is also extremely expensive and will
therefore remain almost exclusively the province of the
major vehicle manufacturers, whose focus will continue
to be on meeting a range of regulatory requirements and
market performance needs.
HVDC Transmission
High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission,
which is mainly associated with the transfer of large
amounts of electricity over long distances, is a proven
technology developed over a number of decades.
Although the application of sub-sea HVDC to harness
power produced offshore by wind farms and other
renewable energy installations does generally offer
advantages over HVAC transmission, as an enabling
technology it will not directly contribute to carbon
reductions. In the UK, the technology also has apotential application in grid support and development,
but other, considerably more economic options are
already available. No significant UK industry exists in
HVDC technology.
Intermediate Energy Vectors
Current supplies of liquid and gas fuels are almost
entirely derived from fossil fuel sources. By 2050 a move
to a hydrogen economy based on fuel cells is possible,
and a number of intermediate steps towards this could
be taken. These would involve the more widespread
introduction of fuels such as ethanol, methanol and
synthetic diesel. However, these options have relativelylow carbon saving potential and limited applicability to
the UK, being better suited to the utilisation of
stranded gas assets around the world. Development
would require substantial investment in a field that is
largely the domain of multinational oil and gas
companies.
Low-Head Hydro
The technology required to harness low-head hydro
power for electricity production is highly developed,
efficient and well understood, with many schemes and
technology suppliers operating in the UK. As a result of
the relatively high cost of exploitation and theenvironmental and regulatory issues associated with
hydro development, the UK market is relatively
restricted, with opportunities for further cost-effective
deployment limited. Such further developments as are
feasible in this country are also unlikely to lead to
significant growth in the UKs existing skills base.
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Nuclear Fusion
Nuclear fusion combines atoms of light elements at
extreme temperatures in a plasma, resulting in a
release of energy. The technology has considerable
potential to avoid carbon emissions but is at an early
stage of development. No demonstration plant has yet
been built and so costs and performance are very
uncertain, and no commercial deployment is expected
before 2050. The construction of experimental and
prototype plant that generate electricity from nuclear
fusion would involve very large investment.
Solar Thermal Electric
Solar thermal electric systems work by focusing and
absorbing solar radiation and using the captured
energy to generate electricity via steam turbines.
The need for high and reliable levels of direct
sunlight means that this technology is unlikely to
make any contribution to carbon saving in the UK in
the short, medium or long term. Moreover, solar
thermal electric has yet to achieve or maintain
unassisted commercial deployment anywhere in the
world. This slow progress towards the market means
that there will only be limited opportunities for theUK industry to benefit from advances elsewhere in
the world in the short term.
Tidal Lagoons & Barrages
Tidal energy schemes exploit the changing height of
coastal tidal waters to generate electricity. Although
the technology is mature and many potential UK
schemes have been researched in considerable depth,
there are very few examples of the deployment of this
technology anywhere in the world and none in this
country. The main barrier to deployment is capital
cost, together with concerns about the environmental,
commercial and other impacts of potential schemes.The resulting question marks against the technologys
commercial viability mean that, while it theoretically
has considerable carbon saving potential, new
development of tidal lagoons and barrages is not
expected in the near future.
We intend to review the Low Carbon Technology Assessment on a regular basis. Your feedback and comments would be most welcome in helping
us to identify those areas of greatest carbon reduction potential where our investment could make a material difference. To submit your views
please e-mail the Carbon Trust at [email protected]
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Published in the UK: December 2002
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