2002 AAPG Briefing Energy and Environment: A Partnership that Works Energy Supply Setting Pete Stark...
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Transcript of 2002 AAPG Briefing Energy and Environment: A Partnership that Works Energy Supply Setting Pete Stark...
2002 AAPG Briefing2002 AAPG Briefing
““Energy and Environment: Energy and Environment: A Partnership that WorksA Partnership that Works”
Energy Supply SettingEnergy Supply Setting
Pete StarkIHS Energy Group
Washington, D.C.23 September, 2002
2002 AAPG Briefing2002 AAPG Briefing
““Energy and Environment: Energy and Environment: A Partnership that WorksA Partnership that Works”
Energy Supply SettingEnergy Supply Setting
Pete StarkIHS Energy Group
Washington, D.C.23 September, 2002
Thesis:Thesis:
• Public desires secure, reliable, clean, sustainable & affordable energy supplies that are available on demand.
• Balanced environmental and energy development policies needed to meet energy demand growth forecasts.
• Oil and natural gas expected to contribute dominant share of energy supplies for > 20 years.
Energy Supply IssuesEnergy Supply Issues
• Confusing & conflicting information about energy supplies
• Challenging oil & gas demand scenarios• Natural gas: the challenge & opportunity of this
decade• Public policy pressure for renewable resources• Petroleum industry squeezed by volatile
markets, financial constraints, anti-hydrocarbon pressures, regulations and limited access to prospects
Challenging Oil Challenging Oil Demand Demand ScenariosScenarios
World Oil Demand Consumption in MMbopd
1993 - 99 2000-20
1993 1999 % 2000 2005 2020 %• World 67.6 75.0 +11 % 75.6 84.6 118.9 56%
• U.S.A. 17.2 19.5 +13 % 19.7 21.2 25.8 31%
Source: IEA and EIA
Is 2020 target attainable?
Confusing Oil Supply PredictionsConfusing Oil Supply PredictionsConfusing Oil Supply PredictionsConfusing Oil Supply Predictions “Campbell - Laherrère – Deffeyes School”• Oil ultimate recoverable: 1,694* MMMb
– Produced 849– Remaining 845 MMMb– Reserves/Production 36 Years
• Oil production will peak and commence decline by the end of this decade.
(* 2000 data excludes heavy oil & reserves growth.)
World Oil ResourcesWorld Oil ResourcesMajor Non-conventional Liquid Resources In PlaceMajor Non-conventional Liquid Resources In Place
Alberta Bitumen & Orinoco Extra Heavy Oil compared with Saudi Arabia
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Alberta Bitumen Ultimate Alberta BitumenEstablished
Orinoco Extra-Heavy Saudi Arabia
Mill
ion
Ba
rre
ls
Remaining In Place
Cumulative Production
World Liquids ResourcesWorld Liquids Resources
Including Reserves Growth, Oil Sands / Extra-heavy Oil & Yet-to-FindWith Percentage Depletion at End-2001
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
North America Latin America Europe Former SovietUnion
Africa Middle East Asia-Pacific
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
Cumulative Conventional Liquids ProductionUndiscovered Conventional Liquids (USGS) at End 2001Remaing Oil Sands and Undeveloped Orinoco with Reserves GrowthConventional Liquids Reserves GrowthRemaining Discovered Conventional Liquids at End 200130.5%
(50.4% w/o oil sand)
17.4%(30.3% w/o Orinoco)
29.7%
27.3%
28.8%
21.2%
40.2%
World Liquids ResourcesWorld Liquids ResourcesIHS Energy Group December 2001IHS Energy Group December 2001World Liquids ResourcesWorld Liquids Resources
IHS Energy Group December 2001IHS Energy Group December 2001
Liquids Resources (million barrels)
Total Discovered
Cumulative Production
Remaining Recoverable
Percent Remaining
Year 2001 Production
Year 2001 R/P
Conventional Liquids Resources Discovered to End-2001 2,069,796 957,470 1,112,326 53.7% 26,756 42
Alberta Bitumen314,500 3,080 311,420 99.0% 238 1,308
Orinoco Undeveloped248,000 0 248,000 100.0% 0 n/a
Total Discovered Liquids 2,632,296 960,550 1,671,746 63.5% 26,994 62
Total Discovered Liquids with "Reserves Growth"
2,045,000 68.0% 76
Total Discovered Liquids with "Reserves Growth" and "Yet-to-Find"
2,848,000 74.8% 106
Remaining recoverable Campbell IHSE 845 2,848 + 2,003
International Resources Discovered vsInternational Resources Discovered vsResources Put On-streamResources Put On-stream
International Resources Discovered vsInternational Resources Discovered vsResources Put On-streamResources Put On-stream
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000P
re-1
901
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05
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20
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40
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96 -
2000
2001
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
Oil
Eq
uiv
alen
t
Resources Discovered in Period
Resources On-stream in Period
(excludes USA and Canada)
U.S. O&G Well Completions1980 - 2001
U.S. O&G Well Completions1980 - 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 20 2
OIL Gas
Wells X 1,000
Source: IHSE
Issue: Energy SecurityDependence on Oil Imports
U. S. Petroleum Imports vs. Production 1989 - 2002U. S. Petroleum Imports vs. Production 1989 - 2002
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
DOE Imports IHS Prod DOE Prod
Mb/d
1991 = 7,627Mb/d 2001 = 11,607Mb/d
1991 = 7,417Mb/d 2001 = 5,848Mb/d
Oil Supply VolatilityOil Supply VolatilityOPEC Quotas & Production: 1996-2002OPEC Quotas & Production: 1996-2002
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Quota Overage Iraq
MM Bopd Capacity
(06) (11)
(Dec)
(Dec)
(Dec)
(Dec)
(04) (08)
Capacity
Oil Supply & Policy IssuesOil Supply & Policy IssuesOil Supply & Policy IssuesOil Supply & Policy Issues
• No near-term decline in oil supplies– Crisis policies not required. Orderly transition to
alternate sources.
• Reduce import dependency – boost production– Access to prospective lands
– Investment incentives – tax credits, royalties
– Efficient regulatory processes – reduce delays & costs
• Supply security: – Enhance Western Hemisphere policies & alliances
World 80.4 91 +13 % 162 78%
U.S.A. 22.07 22.5 + 2.1% ~ 27 33.8 50%
World Gas DemandWorld Gas DemandConsumption in Tcf/yrConsumption in Tcf/yr.
1996-2000 2000-20
1996 2000 % 2010 2020 %
Source: EIA
U.S. 2001 ~ 22.83 + 0.2% U.S. 2002 ~ 23.81 + 4.3% U.S. 2003
September 9, 200121.43 -
4.7%22.13 + 3.3%22.92 + 4.6%
Sept. 6, 2002
World Natural Gas ResourcesWorld Natural Gas Resources
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
North America Latin America Europe Former SovietUnion
Africa Middle East Asia-Pacific
Bill
ion
Sta
ndar
d C
ubic
Fee
t
Cumulative Gas ProductionUndiscovered Gas (USGS) at End 2001Gas Reserves GrowthRemaining Discovered Gas at End 2001
48.5%
14.5% 32.5%
15.7%
12.9%
4.9%
14.7%
Produced and Remaining Natural Gas Resources (Including Reserves Growth and Conventional Yet-to-Find) (With Percentage Depletion at End-2001)
Produced and Remaining Natural Gas Resources (Including Reserves Growth and Conventional Yet-to-Find) (With Percentage Depletion at End-2001)
Total Remaining Tcf = 11,750 Years = 124
U.S. Energy Consumption by FuelU.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel1970-20201970-2020
Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2002
quadtrillion Btu
© 2001. Petroleum Information/Dwights LLC d/b/a IHS Energy Group.