2002 - 2002 Morgan Stanley Aerospace & Defense Conference
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Transcript of 2002 - 2002 Morgan Stanley Aerospace & Defense Conference
2
Forward Looking Statement
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this press releasemight not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
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Company Highlights
QQOne of the leading Aircraft One of the leading Aircraft ManufacturesManufactures
QQPremier and strong global customer Premier and strong global customer base base -- high market share high market share
QQUS$ 23.8 Billion in Total BacklogUS$ 23.8 Billion in Total Backlog
QQStrong global longStrong global long--term partners term partners
5
Embraer Business
The aerospace businessis supported by 5 pillars High Technology
Qualified People
Global Business
Flexibility
Cash Intensiveness
And the backbone of our entrepreneurship is achieving customer satisfaction
7
High Technology
The Virtual Reality Center
Provides visualization of the aircraft structure and systems during the project phase, using 3D electronic models.
Reduces the development cycle.
11
Qualified People
Educational Levels
25% of the almost 12,000 employees, are engineers
High School64.5%
PhDs0.2% Undergraduates
29.3%
Graduates4.7%
Masters1.3%
12
Qualified People
More than US$ 60 millioninvested in training and qualificationin the last 3 years.
21 24,518
1999 2000 2001
15
Global Business
Current Fleet of Regional Aircraft
Latin America& Caribbean260 aircraft85 customers
Africa & Middle East55 aircraft10 customers
AsiaPacific60 aircraft20 customers
Europe285 aircraft40 customers
North America920 aircraft35 customers
Turboprop Operators
ERJ Operators
16
USADallas
NashvilleAtlanta
Palm Beach Gardens Fort Lauderdale
Global Business
Operations in Brazil, United States, Europe, Asia and Australia
BrazilGavião Peixoto
BotucatuSão José dos Campos
FranceLe Bourget
UKWeybridge
ChinaBeijing
AustraliaMelbourne
SingaporeSingapore
18
(Investments - US$ millions)
98 81122
147
104
1995 1997 1999
296
2001
213
20001996 1998 20042003 2005
334
262 239 224
2006
227
2002
142
1.sem
Realized
Projected
Increase in Productivity
Product Development
60%
40%
Capital Intensiveness
Figures in Brazilian Gaap
20
7
400thMar 2000
300thAug 2000
200thDec 1999
1224
100thDec 1998
ERJ 135/145Deliveries
500thSep 2001
68
600thMay 2002
86# of Months
Flexibility
Embraer has the agility and flexibility to adjust its production in accordance with market demand.
21
Flexibility
Flexibility incorporated into the production line allowed an increase in efficiency and decrease in production lead time
Lead Time in Months
8,0
6,0 6,05,5
4,9 5,0
3,8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 7M02
22
Flexibility
Delivery Forecast
4
32
59
96
160 161
135145
1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002E 2003E
23
Flexibility
Embraer presents one of the highest "revenue per employee" in the industry.
101
172
242 247
307
254 254
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1H02
Revenue per employeeUS$ thousand
25
Growth-Oriented Company
1995 1995 –– 19981998
•• TurnaroundTurnaround
•• Regain credibilityRegain credibility
•• Develop the Regional Jet MarketDevelop the Regional Jet Market
•• ProfitabilityProfitability
1999 1999 –– 20012001
•• Expand market share through:Expand market share through:•• Expansion of the ERJ145 family Expansion of the ERJ145 family and development of the and development of the
EMBRAER 170 familyEMBRAER 170 family•• Development of the Business Jet Development of the Business Jet FamilyFamily
•• Access to global capital marketsAccess to global capital markets•• Profitability Profitability
Strategic FocusStrategic Focus
26
Growth Strategy
QQRevenue diversification:Revenue diversification:
QQGeographicGeographic
QQBusiness SegmentsBusiness Segments
QQ Geographic diversification of assetsGeographic diversification of assets
QQOrganic growth and other opportunitiesOrganic growth and other opportunities
27
Revenue Diversification
Commercial87%
Defense4%
Corporate 3%
Parts and Services
6%
Current SalesBreakdown
FY2001
Expected Sales BreakdownIn five years
CorporateJets
CustomerService
Defense
Commercial70%
30%
28
Revenue Diversification
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1999 2000 2001
Americas Europe Brazil Others
Geographic Diversification
29
US$23.8 billion in total orders,
including US$ 10.1 billion in firm orders
150% 36.7%Annual Growth 56.1% 78.1% (6.1)%
Backlog
$3,0$6,4
$11,4 $10,7 $10,1
$11,3
$12,7 $12,7 $13,7
$1,2 $4,1$0,0
$5,0
$10,0
$15,0
$20,0
$25,0
$30,0
Dec. 31,1996
Dec. 31,1997
Dec. 31,1998
Dec. 31,1999
Dec. 31,2000
Dec. 31,2001
June 30,2002
1.7%
Firm Orders Options
32
Growth Opportunities
QQRising US regional enplanements: Rising US regional enplanements: passenger preferencepassenger preference
QQRegional traffic growth: turboprop Regional traffic growth: turboprop replacement & longer range of RJsreplacement & longer range of RJs
QQScope Clauses flexibilizationScope Clauses flexibilization
QQNew generation of 70New generation of 70--110 jets vs ageing 110 jets vs ageing fleetfleet
QQRightsizing capacity vs demandRightsizing capacity vs demand
33
US Regional Enplanements Increasing
Source: RAA, FAA
U.S. Regional Airlines% of Domestic Traffic
PassengerEnplanements (Millions)
1970 1985 2000 2010F0
200
400
600
800
1,000
3% 7%12%
14%
RegionalMajor
34
-3% -1%
-1%
-3% -2%
-33%
-18%-13%
-6%
-12%-10% -7%
-11%-8% -7% -7%
17%
9% 7%2% 2% 1%
6%
13%
5%
14%
2%
15%18%
23%
34%32%
34%
27%
5%0%
3%
-21%
-2%
-23%
Jan
/01
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
/01
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
Dec
/01
Yea
r 20
01
Jan
-02
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
-02
Jul
RP
M G
row
th -
Yr/
Yr
% C
han
ge
Domestic ATA Regional RAA
Source: Top Regionals, RAA, ATA
Airline Market - USAAirline Market - USA
35
Seating Capacity25 50 75 100 125 150 175+
37 – 70 112 +112 +
50 109 +109 +
50 – 70 116 +116 +
37 – 50 104 +104 +
44 – 50 78 +78 +
50 97 +97 +
70 to 110 Seats
70 to 110 Seats
“Scope Clauses”
Wide Seat Capacity GapWide Seat Capacity Gap
36
250 aircraft withmore than 20 years(33% of total fleet inservice)
91
147 146128
74
15
161
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35
Aircraft Age (Years)
Nu
mb
er o
f A
ircr
aft
Source: BACK
Fleet in Service (91-120 seat segment - Jan/2002)
Ageing 100-seat fleet to be replaced
Market Opportunities - USAMarket Opportunities - USA
37
25 50 75 100 125 150 175+
Seating Capacity
37 – 80 103 +103 +
37 – 85 112 +112 +
50 – 70 109 +109 +
44 – 66 131 +131 +
50 - 80 108 +108 +
110 +110 +50 – 111
50 +50 +
Source: BACK
No artificial constraints in EuropeNo artificial constraints in Europe
70 to110 seats
70 to110 seats
38
498
151
276
132 418
728
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
30-60 61-90 91-120 121-150
Seat Segment
Nu
mb
er o
f A
ircr
aft
Turboprop Jet
TurbopropTurbopropReplacementReplacement
Rightsizing Rightsizing capacity vs. capacity vs.
demanddemand
Fleet in Service (Jan/2002)
Source: BACK
Market Opportunities - EuropeMarket Opportunities - Europe
39
120
160
Seat Capacity
40
80
0
Stage Length (nm)
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
30 Seat Tprops
50 SeatERJ 145
Narrow Body Large Aircraft
37 - 44 Seat ERJ 135/140
EMBRAER 170/190
Filling the Seat Capacity GapFilling the Seat Capacity Gap
40
324
149
132
43
FirmBacklog
5591,288405883Total
428891314577ERJ 145
4221945174ERJ 140
8917846132ERJ 135
DeliveriesTotalOptionsFirm
ERJ 145 Family OrderbookERJ 145 Family Orderbook
(as of June 30th, 2002)
41
314202112Total (*)
1027230EMBRAER 195
21213082EMBRAER 170
TotalOptionsFirm
EMBRAER 170/190 Family OrderbookEMBRAER 170/190 Family Orderbook
(as of June 30th, 2002)
(*) Does not include Jet Airways and Alitalia.
43
QQA niche playerA niche player
QQBased on a consolidated airframe, with Based on a consolidated airframe, with more than 600 aircrafts in operationmore than 600 aircrafts in operation
QQRepresents value for customers:Represents value for customers:
üüComfort, performance, cost efficiency Comfort, performance, cost efficiency and reliabilityand reliability
Legacy – New Entrant
44
Value and ComfortValue and Comfort
10 20 30 40 50ft
m 3 6 9 12 15
G IV SP
Falcon 2000
Supermidsize price for the comfort of a large bzj
45
Legacy Orderbook
As of June 2002
62
-
25
37
FirmBacklog
91679473Total
71367EMB 135/145
-755025Legacy Shuttle
2743539Legacy Executive
DeliveriesTotalOptionsFirm
47
Defense Growth Strategy
QQ Market the existing programs to Market the existing programs to other Air Forcesother Air Forces
QQDevelop new technology Develop new technology
QQExplore synergies with our strategic Explore synergies with our strategic partners (Dassault, Thales, Snecma partners (Dassault, Thales, Snecma and EADS)and EADS)
48
Defense Products
Systems & Services
IntegratedGround Command& Control
IntegratedSystems
Data-Link
Training
ALX / Super Tucano
Systems
AMX-T
Combat Transport
EMB 135/145
EMB 120K
Legacy
ALX / Super Tucano
F-5 BR
AMX / AMX-T
Intelligence, Surveillance &Reconnaissance
EMB 145 AEW&C
EMB 145 AGS
EMB 145 MP / ASW
50
QQService a global growing fleet Service a global growing fleet
QQExpand geographical reachExpand geographical reach
QQTotal Care SolutionsTotal Care Solutions
Customer Service Growth Strategy
52
Units
Jet Deliveries
4
32
60
96
160 161
135145
0
40
80
120
160
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E
Figures in US GAAP
53
Units
Jet Deliveries - Quarterly
42 44 4134
30 30
0
20
40
60
1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02
Figures in US GAAP
54
US$ Million
Net Sales & Gross Margin
7641,354
1,8371,556
1,147
2,762 2,92727% 28%
31%
39% 40%39%
31%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1H01 1H020%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Figures in US GAAP
55
Europe19%
Brazil3%
USA78%
Sales per Segment
2Q02
Sales per Market
2Q02
Revenue Breakdown
Commercial83%
Defense3%
Customer Services &
Others7%
Corporate7%
Figures in US GAAP
56
US$ Million
EBIT
49172
368 363216
462651
6%
13%
20%23%
19%17%
22%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1H01 1H02
0%
10%
20%
30%
Figures in US GAAP
57
EBITDA
US$ Million
71193
393493
698
384243
9%
14%
21% 21%25%24%
18%
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1H01 1H020%
10%
20%
30%
Figures in US GAAP
58
Net Income
US$ Million
3
145
235
321 328
184
105
9%
12%13%
11% 11%12%
0.4%
0
200
400
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1H01 1H020%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Figures in US GAAP
59
Long Term60%
Short Term40%
R$ Debt27%
Mainly US$73%
Bank Loans - US$ 532.6 million
June 30, 2002
Loans Breakdown
Debt MaturityCurrency Breakdown
• Considering Currency Swaps• Average R$ debt cost: 14.7% p.a.• Average US$ debt cost: 4.1% p.a.
• Average Maturity: 2.8 years
Figures in US GAAP