WWW.WWF.ORG.MMAN ALTERNATIVE VISION FOR MYANMAR’S POWER SECTOR

2016

BRIEFMMR

PAGE WIDTH: 207MM BECAUSE FOLDED INSIDE

© A

dam O

swell / W

WF-C

anon

© artjazz / S

hutterstock.com

Why we are here

www.wwf.org.mm

To stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment andto build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature.

An alternative vision for Myanmar’s power sector

Renewable energy, properly exploited, can achieve a number of objectives: it can

significantly reduce the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels, accelerate universal access

to electricity, ensure stable electricity prices for decades to come, increase job creation,

strengthen cooperation with Myanmar’s neighbours to optimise electricity consumption

and production, and safeguard environmental services and benefits to society. The use

of sustainable power can ensure electricity cost stability and maintain system security –

that is, provide enough electricity at all times to make sure the lights don’t go out.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

14020

15

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

2047

2049

LCO

E ($

/MW

h)

BAU SES ASES

Figure 4. Levelized Cost of Energy for Three Scenarios

© S

hutte

rsto

ck

Figure 4. Levelized Cost of Energy for Three Scenarios

49%

20% 64,904MW

0%of installed capacity using solar energy (photovoltaic and concentrated solar) by 2050

of installed capacity using wind energy by 2050

installed capacity using diverse renewable energy resources by 2050

fossil fuel based generation starting 2043

Myanmar’s power sector in numbers

© A

nton Balazh / S

hutterstock.com

After decades of economic and political isolation, Myanmar is open for business. Encouraged by the smooth transition to democracy, investors are pouring in and the country stands poised for rapid development.

In the race to catch up with its neighbours, Myanmar finds itself in a tough balancing act. How will it procure the energy

it needs to sustain its development? Should it follow the path of many developed countries and burn fossil fuels, or import costly nuclear power stations? Or should it make use of its enormous potential for renewable resources?

Myanmar has a unique opportunity to avoid mistakes made by others and catch up with countries that have already forged ahead in harnessing renewable and sustainable energy. Rather than relying on heavily polluting high-carbon fossil fuel power generation, unsustainable hydropower projects or risky and costly nuclear power, Myanmar can leverage its rich endowment of renewable resources such as sun, wind, water, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy.

By seizing these opportunities, Myanmar can take a giant leap into a better future for all its citizens.

Only 32 per cent of Myanmar households have access to grid electricity, while the rest of the population either has no access or must rely on unreliable or badly maintained diesel micro-grids and small solar systems. The absence of standards or maintenance means that these sources are currently erratic. Most electricity is generated by hydropower resources and by burning fossil fuels.

The outgoing government has understandably sought to meet growing energy needs with low-cost investments. The Myanmar Energy Master Plan places great emphasis on deriving energy from coal-fired power plants and big dams, despite the long-term risks and massive environmental consequences associated with these methods.

But it is precisely because Myanmar has been left so far behind that it now has the chance to leapfrog the fossil fuel-based electricity era that started over 130 years ago and embrace the renewable energy era.

CLEAN ENERGY FOR MYANMAR

100% RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050

THE TIME TO ACTIS NOW

Myanmar has a unique opportunity to avoid mistakes made by others and catch up

with countries that have already forged ahead in harnessing renewable and

sustainable energy. Rather than relying on heavily polluting high-carbon fossil fuel

power generation, unsustainable hydropower projects or risky and costly nuclear

power, Myanmar can leverage its rich endowment of renewable resources such as

sun, wind, water, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy.

By seizing these opportunities, Myanmar can take a giant leap into a better future

for all its citizens.

Figure 1. Solar (left) and wind (right) potential of Myanmar. (ref: IRENA)

The time to act is now

Only 32 per cent of Myanmar households have access to grid electricity, while the rest of

the population either has no access or must rely on unreliable or badly maintained

diesel micro-grids and small solar systems. The absence of standards or maintenance

means that these sources are currently erratic. Most electricity is generated by

hydropower resources and by burning fossil fuels.

There are several reasons to embrace renewable energy:

• Solar and wind technologies are the fastest solution for meeting the rapid growth in energy demand (Solar PV and wind projects could be built in months while fossil fuel, nuclear and hydropower projects would take several years.)

• Hydropower can have severe social and environmental impacts. It can destroy entire fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them.

• A switch to renewables is necessary to mitigate climate change, the effects of which are already being felt in Myanmar, the world’s second most vulnerable country to climate change.

• Fossil fuel plants are an uncertain investment and will only become more uncertain.

The study shows that a diverse mix of renewable sources can meet 100 per cent of Myanmar’s electricity demand by 2050. The scenario presented by IES has at its core two principle energy tends: Rationalizing demand by improving energy efficiency and reducing wasteful use of energy, and maximize the use of electricity produced by renewables.

WW

F-Myanm

ar April 2

01

6

The outgoing government has understandably sought to meet growing energy needs

with low-cost investments. The Myanmar Energy Master Plan places great emphasis on

deriving energy from coal-fired power plants and big dams, despite the long-term risks

and massive environmental consequences associated with these methods.

But it is precisely because Myanmar has been left so far behind that it now has the

chance to leapfrog the fossil fuel-based electricity era that started over 130 years ago and

embrace the renewable energy era.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Peak

Dem

and

(MW

)

BAU

SES

ASES

Figure 2 Peak Demand Projection from 2015 onwards of Business as Usual Scenario (BAU), Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES) and Advanced SES

There are several reasons to embrace renewable energy:

Solar and wind technologies are the fastest solution for meeting the rapid growth

in energy demand (Solar PV and wind projects could be built in months while

fossil fuel, nuclear and hydropower projects would take several years.)

Hydropower can have severe social and environmental impacts. It can destroy

entire fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them.

A switch to renewables is necessary to mitigate climate change, the effects of

which are already being felt in Myanmar, the world’s second most vulnerable

country to climate change.

Fossil fuel plants are an uncertain investment and will only become more

uncertain.

The study shows that a diverse mix of renewable sources can meet 100 per cent of

Myanmar’s electricity demand by 2050. The scenario presented by IES has at its core

two principle energy tends: Rationalizing demand by improving energy efficiency and

reducing wasteful use of energy, and maximize the use of electricity produced by

renewables.

Figure 3. Capacity Mix Projection (MW and %) for Sustainable Energy Scenario

Power Sector Vision: 100% Renewable Energy By 2050 Myanmar has the opportunity to become a leader in clean, renewable energy. Renewable

energy sources such as sun, wind, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy are plentiful

and, as only 32 per cent of the population has access to grid electricity, there is

opportunity to leapfrog and embrace the best technologies now.

WWF’s Energy Report shows that it is technically and economically feasible to achieve

100 per cent renewable energy in Myanmar by 2050. Not only is it possible, but

renewable energy makes economic sense: Prices are decreasing, especially photovoltaic

(PV) and wind energy, energy derived from renewable sources has the potential to meet

our electricity needs many times over, even allowing for fluctuations in supply and

demand.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Capa

city

MW

Offgrid Coal Hydro Gas Wind

Diesel/FO Nuclear Bio Solar CSP

Battery Hydro ROR Geothermal Ocean Pump Storage

0% 0% 1% 4% 2% 2%5% 1% 0%0% 0% 0%

60% 68%

41%

23%

13% 10%

32%31%

21%

7%

1%0%

0%0%

13%

19%

22%

20%

3% 0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0% 0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0% 0%

2%

5%

7%

6%

0% 0%

22%

34%

41%

42%

0% 0% 0%

4%5%

7%

0% 0% 0% 5%3%

3%

0% 0% 0% 0%5%

9%0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

Capa

city

Mix

Offgrid Coal Hydro GasWind Diesel/FO Nuclear BioSolar CSP Hydro ROR BatteryPump Storage Geothermal Ocean

© W

WF-

Mya

nmar

Figure 2 Peak Demand Projection from 2015 onwards of Business as Usual Scenario (BAU), Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES) and Advanced SES

Figure 3. Capacity Mix Projection (MW and %) for Sustainable Energy Scenario

Figure 1. Solar (left) and wind (right) potential of Myanmar. (ref: IRENA)

Myanmar has the opportunity to become a leader in clean, renewable energy. Renewable energy sources such as sun, wind, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy are plentiful and, as only 32 per cent of the population has access to grid electricity, there is opportunity to leapfrog and embrace the best technologies now.

The alternative vision shows that it is technically and economically feasible to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy in Myanmar by 2050. Not only is it possible, but renewable energy makes economic sense: Prices are decreasing, especially photovoltaic(PV) and wind energy, energy derived from renewable sources has the potential to meet our electricity needs many times over, even allowing for fluctuations in supply and demand.

Renewable energy, properly exploited, can achieve a number of objectives: it can significantly reduce the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels, accelerate universal access to electricity, ensure stable electricity prices for decades to come, increase job creation, strengthen cooperation with Myanmar’s neighbours to optimise electricity consumption and production, and safeguard environmental services and benefits to society. The use of sustainable power can ensure electricity cost stability and maintain system security – that is, provide enough electricity at all times to make sure the lights don’t go out.

© W

WF-M

yanmar / A

ndre Malerba