2 The Econometric Society - African Development Bank · 2019. 6. 29. · Pravin Trivedi is...

2The Econometric Society

17th Annual Conference of the African Econometric Society

Sponsors

African Development BankEconomic Policy Research

Centre, Uganda

The Econometric Society

The Econometric Society

College of Business and ManagementScience, Makerere University

African Economic Research Consortium

Association for the Advancement of African Women

Economists

Think Tank Initiative

Bank of Uganda

Journal of Applied Econometrics

African Econometric Society

The African Capacity Building Foundation



Prof. Pravin Trivedi, J. H. Rudy Professor in the Department of Economics at Indiana University

Pravin Trivedi is Distinguished Professor and J. H. Rudy Professor in the Department of Economics at Indiana University. His current research and teaching interests are in microeconometric methods and applications, with special emphasis on limited dependent and discrete (especially count) variable models. His applied research concentrates on health economics and analyzes and econometrically models the role of incentives and selection in healthcare insurance and utilization.

Biographies of Keynote Speakers

Kaddour Hadri is Professor of Economics at Queens University Management School Belfast since August 2008. He has been Research Director for Economics Analysis and Behaviour and then Subject Leader since January 2009. Before joining Queen’s University, Kaddour Hadri was Professor of Econometrics and Finance at Durham University. Hadri is a visiting professor at The University of Liverpool. He held visiting position in many universities including Fudan University (China), Marseille University (France), University of Sydney (Australia) and Nanjing University (China). He has also been a Chairman of the Liverpool Economic and Statistical Society during the period 2000-2003. He is an elected member of the Executive Committee of the African Econometric Society (2006-2009). He has been elected President of the African Econometrics Society in July 2009. In addition, he is a resource person for the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) to advise researchers and PhD students from Sub-Sahara Africa (2004-present). He is an Associate Editor of the Bulletin of Economic Research and member of the Board of Editors of The German Economic Review. Hadri has published widely in top economics journals, including Econometrica, Journal of Econometrics, Econometrics Journal, Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, Economic Journal, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Journal of Financial Econometrics and Economics Letters.

Elizabeth Asiedu is a Professor of Economics at the University of Kansas. She was Associate Chair and the Director of Graduate Studies of the Economics Department from 2007-2009. She is also the President and founder of the Association for the Advancement of African Women Economists (AAAWE) and the President of the African Finance Economic Association (AFEA). Professor Asiedu received her B.S. (Hons) from the University of Ghana, M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), and PhD in Economics also from UIUC.

Professor Asiedu teaches graduate and undergraduate classes in Development and International Economics. She has received several teaching/mentoring awards at the University of Kansas, including The Outstanding Woman Educator Award, Kemper Teaching Award, Byron Shutz Award for Excellence in Teaching, and the Woman of Distinction Award.

Professor Asiedu’s research focuses on Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Aid and HIV/AIDS. Her research has received both national and international prominence. In 2007, she was one of ten recipients of Emerging Scholar Award—a nation-wide award that honors minority faculty in the US. Her work has been published in leading scholarly journals, including The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Journal of International Economics, and Review of Economics and Statistics. Her work is also cited in several international publications, including The Report of the Commission for Africa (The Tony Blair Report) presented at the G8 Summit in 2005; The 2006 Economic Report on Africa produced by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, and The 2008 UNCTAD World Investment Report. She has consulted for many international organizations, including The United Nations University/World Institute of Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), International Labor Organization (ILO), The African Development Bank and The Global Development Network.

Prof. Elizabeth Asiedu, Department of Economics, University of Kansas

Prof. Kaddour Hadri, Professor of Economics at Queens University Management School Belfast



Professor Victor Murinde is Director of the African Development Institute at the African Development Bank. Prior to joining the Bank, he was a Professor of Development Finance at the University of Birmingham in the UK for 15 years. He holds a BA (Economics) from Makerere University, an MSc (Banking & Finance) and a PhD (Financial Economics) from the University of Wales, Cardiff; and a Doctoris Honoris Causa from Tallinn University of Technology.

His broad research includes analyses of financial institutions and markets; and corporate finance and investments. An accomplished scholar, Prof. Murinde has published over 100 contributions to the economics and finance literature, including 12 books and many articles in top rated journals. Drawing from his research and publications, he worked as a consultant to many international organisations, including the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the UN, UNCTAD, and the Commission of the European Union.

Dr Louis Kasekende is Deputy Governor at the Bank of Uganda. He recently served at the African Development Bank as Chief Economist, a position he held for three and a half years. Previously he served as Alternate Executive Director and later as Executive Director at the World Bank for Africa Group 1, including 22 countries mostly from Anglophone Sub-Saharan Africa. Prior to joining the World Bank, he served as Deputy Governor at the Bank of Uganda from 1999 to 2002; Executive Director Research and Policy at the Bank of Uganda from 1994 to 1999; Director of the Research Department at the Bank of Uganda from 1992 to 1994. After completing his studies at Makerere University, he tutored at the University before proceeding for his post-graduate studies at the University of Manchester.

During his studies at the University of Manchester, he tutored in the department of Econometrics. Between 1991 and 1996 he lectured part-time in the MA Program in Economic Policy and Planning at Makerere University. He is a member of the United Nations Group of Eminent Persons for the Least Developed Countries and was recently appointed to the Financial Stability Board taskforce on Emerging Markets and Developing Economies.

Dr. Kasekende holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Makerere University, Diploma in Econometrics, Masters of Arts and Ph.D in Econometrics of University of Manchester. He has authored several articles in academic journals and two books.

Prof. Victor Murinde, Director of the African Development Institute, African Development Bank

Dr Louis KasekendeDeputy Governor at the Bank of Uganda.

Rabah ArezkiEconomist at the IMF Institute

Rabah Arezki, is an Economist at the IMF Institute. During his career at the Fund, he worked in the Fiscal Affairs Department and the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF.

He has written on natural resources, economic development, governance and macro-finance. He has published widely in academic and other journals, including The Economic Journal, Journal of International Economics and European Economic Review. He has also been cited in leading newspapers, including The Economist, Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. He has co-edited a book entitled Beyond the Curse: Policies to Harness the Power of Natural Resources published by the International Monetary Fund. He has co-edited a second book on Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries to be published by the International Monetary Fund in July 2012.



Day 1Wednesday, July 25, 2012

7:30 Arrival and Registration

8.30 Plenary Session I: SUNFLOWER, 4TH LEVELChair: Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Bank Group (AfDB)

8:40 Welcome Remarks Dr. Sarah Ssewanyana, Executive Director, EPRC•Prof. John Ddumba Ssentamu, Principal, COBAM, Makerere University•Prof. Kaddour Hadri, President, AES•

9:30 Official opening Speech Dr. Louis Kasekende, Deputy Governor Bank of Uganda

10:00 COFFEE BREAK

10:15 Plenary Session II : Prof Pravin K Trivedi, J. H. Rudy Professor in the Department of Economics at Indiana University

“A Nonlinear Panel Data Analysis of Success at the Summer Olympics”

11:15 – 13:00 Parallel Session I

A1: Econometric Theory and Methods

B1: Stock Markets

C1: Growth and Institutions

D1: Panel Data

13.00 – 14:00 LUNCH BREAK - CHOPSTICK, 4TH FLOOR

14.00 – 17:00* Parallel Session II

A2: Agriculture

B2: Exchange Rate Economics

C2: Growth and Institutions II

D2: AAAWE SESSION I

18.30 Cocktail Reception Hosted by AfDBWelcome address by Patrick Khaemba, Resident Representative, AfDB Uganda Field Office and •Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Institute, AfDB Venue: ( POOLVIEW 5TH FLOOR)

*Coffee and teas will be made available at the foyer of the parallel session groups between 15h00 and 16h00



PARALLEL SESSION I: [11h15-13h00]Please note that the last presenter of the session will be the chair; and each presentation is permitted 30 minutes including 10 minutes for questions and answers.

[A1:] Econometric Theory and Methods : Venue: SUNFLOWER ROOM 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Peter Dada. Golit, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]

Generalized Least Squares Model Averaging• [Qingfeng Liu, Ryo Okui and Arihiro Yoshimura, Kyoto University, [email protected]]The non-Gaussian State Space Volatility and APARCH Models - A Comparison Study for Important Financial Indexes• [Frank M. de Pinhoa and Thiago R. dos Santos: [email protected]]The Public and Private Marginal Product of Capital • [Matt Lowe; Chris Papageorgiou, and Fidel Perez-Sebastian: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]]Structural Change and Real Output Growth in Nigeria: A Co-Integration Analysis• [Peter Dada Golit, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]; [email protected]]

[B1:] Stock Markets Venue: HONEYBEES 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Agu, David Onyinyechi, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, [email protected]

Modeling Time-Varying Risk Premier of Stock Returns in Kenya• [Nicholas Vundi Zacchaeus]Value Relevance of Accounting Information in the Nigerian Stock Market• [Oyerinde, Dorcas Titilayo]Testing the Overconfidence Behavioural Finance Hypothesis on the Nigerian Stock Exchange• . [Chidi, Sundayson Ikechi and Agu, David Onyinyechi: [email protected]]The Dynamics of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nigeria• [Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola and Oluwatosin Adeniyi, and Olusegun,: [email protected]] Financial Crisis, Firm Fundamentals and the Pricing of Bank Stocks in Nigeria – Analysis from a Panel of Banks• [Agu, David Onyinyechi and Manasseh, Charles Osondu, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, [email protected]] Co-Movement of African and International Stock Markets: A Copula Based Assessment (Richard Watuwa. Cape Breton •University, [email protected])

[C1:] Growth and Institutions Venue: HIBSCUS ROOM 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Zorobabel Bicaba: [email protected];

Effects of Growth in Capital and Money Supply on Inflation in Uganda• [Jimmy Alani, Gulu University, Uganda, [email protected]]GDP Per Capita In Africa: Persistence, Mean Reversion and Long Memory Features• [Luis A. Gil-Alana; Olanrewaju I. Shittu; Olaoluwa S. Yaya [email protected]; [email protected]] Oil price volatility, fiscal policy and economic growth in Africa: A panel VAR analysis of some selected oil-exporting •countries [Joseph A. Omojolaibi, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, [email protected]]Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Nigeria [Adeleke A.I. and Gbadebo A.O, Centre for Econometric and •Allied Research (CEAR), University of Ibadan, ]Financial liberalization and Growth: Is there a liberalization frontier• ? [Zorobabel Bicaba: [email protected]; [email protected]]

[D1:] Panel Data Venue: MAGNOLIA 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Eiji Kurozumi, Hitotsubashi University, [email protected]

Impact of urban growth on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis with panel data model• [Didier Adjakidje and Mariette Ebong: [email protected]]Institutions and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis• [H. I. Mobolaji, A. A. Kilishi, M. A. Yaru and A. T. Yakubu, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, [email protected]]



Estimating and Predicting the General Random Effects Model• [Eugene Kouassi, Alain Constant Kamdem, JM Bosson Brou, and Mbodja Mougoue: [email protected]]Covariate Unit Root Test for Cross-Sectionally Dependent Panel Data• [Eiji Kurozumi, Daisuke Yamazaki, and Kaddour Hadri, Hitotsubashi University, [email protected] ]

LUNCH BREAK (13h00-14h00)

PARALLEL SESSION II (14h00 – 17h00)

[A2:] Agriculture Venue: SUNFLOWER 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Eric Strobl, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France, [email protected]

Best–Worst Scaling Approach in Predicting Seed Attribute preferences among Resource- Poor Farmers in Two Sates •of Northern Nigeria [Abubakar, M.I and Amadou Zakou Daniel Kirui, Moi University Kenya. : [email protected]; [email protected] ]Determinants of adoption of soil erosion control technologies in Mt. Elgon highlands in eastern Uganda• [Mildred Barungi, D. H. Ng’ong’olaa, A. Edrissa, J. Mugisha, M. Waithaka and J. Tukahirwa, Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, [email protected]]Analysis of Fish Farms Production in The South-East of Ivory Coast: Econometrics analysis using Generalized Maximum •

Entropy [Aboua Angui Christian, University of Cocody-Abidjan ( Cote d\’Ivoire), [email protected].]Regional bulk purchase of imported rice initiative by ECOWAS: A feasibility assessment• [Rose Fiamohe, Ibrahima Bamba, Papa A. Seck and Aliou Diagne: [email protected]]What determines membership to farmer groups in Uganda? Evidence from the Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/9• [Annet Adong, Francis Mwaura and Geofrey Okoboi, Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, [email protected]]A Comparison of the Effect of Large and Small Dams on Cropland Productivity in South Africa• [Eric Strobl, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France [email protected]]

[B2:] Exchange Rates Venue: HONEYBEES, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, International Monetary Fund, [email protected]]

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis of The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Nigeria• [Babatunde Israel Ekundayo: [email protected]] An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Determination in Kenya• [ Maureen Were, Anne Kamau and Kethi Ngoka- Kisinguh, Central Bank of Kenya, [email protected]]Exchange Rate And Inflation Persistence In Sub-Saharan Africa• [ Abiodun Folawewo and Solomon Olakojo, University of Ibadan, [email protected], [email protected]]Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Co integration Approach• [Nkenchor Neville Igue and Toyin Segun Ogunleye, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected];[email protected]; [email protected]] Exchange Rate and Inflation Persistence in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Recent Data [• A. Folawewo, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research (CEAR), University of Ibadan, [email protected]]Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg: Do Trade Patterns Matter [• Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, International Monetary Fund, [email protected]]

[C2:] Growth and Institutions Venue: HIBSCUS ROOM, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Maureen Were, Central Bank of Kenya, [email protected]

The Determinants of Fiscal Deficit and Fiscal Reforms in Nigeria [Sanni H Taiwo:• [email protected]] The Effectiveness of Economic Policies on Economic Growth and Development in Nigeria• [Ebele P. Ifionu, and Kelechi



C. Nnamdi, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria, [email protected] ]A structural VAR analysis of monetary policy in Nigeria• [Samuel O. Orekoya: [email protected]; [email protected]]Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the EAC Regional Integration: A Recursive Computable General Equilibrium •Analysis [Isaac Shinyekywa and Joseph Mawejje: [email protected]]A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Model of Ethiopia• [Asrat Atsedeweyn Andargie; Olusanya E. Olubusoye: [email protected]; [email protected]]Socio Demographic Determinants to Long Run of National Saving in the Countries of West African Economic and •Monetary Union (Waemu) [Ariane Wakap Tchagang: [email protected]]Macroeconomic Factors and the Lending Rate in Kenya: An Empirical Analysis• [Maureen Were, Central Bank of Kenya, [email protected]]

[D2]: (AAAWE Session I) Venue: MAGNOLIA, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Joy Kiiru, University of Nairobi, [email protected]

Impacts of Remittances and Migration on Household Expenditures and Poverty in Burkina Faso: a New Approach •Using a Latent Classes Model [Nadège Désirée Yaméogo, African Development Bank, [email protected]]The Determinants of Child Health: Evidence from Chad • [Eurydice Tormal Gosngar, University of Yaounde II- SOA, [email protected]]The Impact Of Horticulture Cooperatives On Smallholder Horticultural Production And Marketing: A Case •Of Tikolerane Cooperative Society Limited [Khumbo Luhanga, Government of Malawi, [email protected]]The Impact of Mother’s Education on Child Health and Nutrition in Developing Countries: Evidence from Natural •Experiment in Burkina Faso [Eugenia Maiga, African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET), Ghana, [email protected]]Unconditional and Conditional Cash Transfers Programs in Malawi: an Ex ante Evaluation • [Malokele Nanivazo, United Nations University—World Institute of Development Economics, (UNU-WIDER), [email protected]]Social Networks and Individual Reproductive Decision Making • [Ngatia Muthoni, J-PAL Africa, South Africa, [email protected]]



Day 2

Thursday, July 26, 2012

8.30 Plenary Session III: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOORChair: Dr. Adam Mugume, Executive Director of Research, Bank of Uganda

8:40 Keynote Papers by Prof. Kaddour Hadri, President, AES•Recent Development in Large Panel Data Econometrics.Prof. Elizabeth Asiedu, University of Kansas, USA•

10:30 COFFEE BREAK

11:10 – 13:00 Parallel Session III

A3: Agriculture

B3: Sectoral Economics

C3: AAAWE Session II

D3: AAAWE Session III

13.00 – 14:00* LUNCH BREAK: CHOPSTICK, 4TH FLOOR

14.00 – 17:00 Parallel Session IV

A4: Agriculture

B4: Oil in Africa

C4: Poverty and Household Economics

D4: Investments/Manufacturing in Africa

19.00-21.00 Conference Dinner and Book Launch Hosted by Bank of Uganda Venue: Equator Hall, 5TH FLOOR1. The Oxford Companion to the Economics of Africa, edited by Ernest Aryeetey, Shantayanan Devarajan,

Ravi Kanbur and Louis Kasekende (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2012).2. Bank Regulatory Reform in Africa, edited by Victor Murinde (and including work by Louis Kasekende

and Njuguna Ndungu), published by Pelgrave Macmillan, London, 2012).

*Coffee and teas will be made available at the foyer of the parallel session groups between 15h00 and 16h00



PARALLEL SESSION III (11h10 – 13h00)Please note that the last presenter of the session will be the chair; and each presentation is permitted 30 minutes including 10 minutes for questions and answers.

[A3:] Agriculture: Venue: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Lidia Dandedjrohou, [email protected]

Enhancing Productivity, Income and Consumption Spending among Smallholder-Farmers in West Africa: The Impact •of Nerica Rice Varieties [Diagne Aliou, Florent Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe, and Paul M.Dontsop Nguezet, Africa Rice Centre (Africa Rice), [email protected]]Quantifying the Actual and Potential Adoption Rates of Nerica Rice Varieties in Nigeria• [Paul M. Donstop, Africa Rice Centre (Africa Rice), [email protected]]Factors Affecting Participation Decisions in Land Lease Markets in Rural Ethiopia• [Mhbuba Shifa: [email protected]]Impact of the Adoption of Improved Technology for Rice Parboiling on Non-Farm Income and Children Schooling in •Benin [Lidia Dandedjrohou: [email protected]]

[B3:] Sectoral Economics: Venue: HONEYBEES, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Adam Pellillo, West Virginia University, USA [email protected]

Management and motivation in Uganda primary schools• [Andrew Zietlin, Fred Mugisha, Madina Guloba, Lawrence Bategeka and Ibrahim Kasirye, Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, [email protected]]Modeling The Child Nutritional Status in Nigeria• [Oluwayemisi O. Alaba And Olusanya E. Olubusoye: [email protected]; [email protected]]Sustaining Peace-Building in Africa: Determinants of Conflict Relapse• [Therese F. Azeng, University Of Yaounde II, [email protected] ]The Effects of Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Nonperforming Loans in Commercial Banks in Kenya: A •Comparative Panel Data Analysis [Beatrice Warue Njeru, Kenya Methodist university, [email protected]]Conflict and Development: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of the Congo• [Adam Pellillo, West Virginia University, USA, [email protected]]

[C3:] AAAWE Session II Venue: HIBSICUS, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Ngatia Muthoni, J-PAL Africa, South Africa, [email protected]

Institutional dynamics and capital accumulation: Evidence from Namibia (1923-2009) • [Benethelin Zaaruka, University of Witwatersrand, [email protected]]Investment and Tobin’s Q in Nigerian Manufacturing Firms • [Janet Adelegan Olatundun, Lagos State University, Nigeria, [email protected]]Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Aggregates in Nigeria • [Eme Dada, Office of the Chief Economic Advisor to the President, [email protected]]Oil rent and Income Inequality in Selected developing Countries: Does Corruption Matter? [• Gaelle Tatiana Timba, University of Yaounde II, [email protected]]Poverty, Sustainable development and Governance A panel data study • Reham Rizk, British University in Egypt (BUE) [email protected]]Paper:• Risk Preferences and Demand For Insurance Under Price Uncertainty: An Experimental Approach For Cocoa Farmers In Cote D’Ivoire [Euphrasie Ben Houssa Koume, University Of Cocody-Abidjan, [email protected]]

[D3:] AAAWE Session III: Venue: MAGNOLIA, 4TH FLOOR

Chair Eugenie Savadgo Maiga, African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET), Ghana, [email protected] des cossettes d’igname: Application de la méthode Average Treatment Effect (ATE) • [Monney Rodatine, (URES) [email protected]]



Corruption spillover effect through countries borders: the case of Benin and Nigeria. A matching method analysis •[Elfried Faton, Institut de Recherche Empirique en Economie Politique (IREEP) [email protected]]Regional Integration and Industrial Development in West Africa: The Journey So Far • [Jane Karonga, United Nations Commission for Africa (UNECA), [email protected]]Terrorism and Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa, The Case of the CFA Franc Zone • [Juliet Elu, Morehouse College, Georgia, USA, [email protected]]Microfinance and Poverty Reduction• [Joy Kiiru, University of Nairobi, [email protected]]

LUNCH BREAK (13h00-14h00) Venue: CHOPSTICK, 4TH FLOOR

PARALLEL SESSION IV (14h00 – 17h00)

[A4:] Agriculture : SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Aliou Diagne: [email protected]

Enhancing Productivity, Income and Consumption Spending among Smallholder-Farmers in West Africa: The Impact •of Nerica Rice Varieties [Diagne Aliou, Florent Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe, and Paul M.Dontsop Nguezet, Africa Rice Centre, [email protected]]Understanding farmers’ varietal adoption choices and their preference for varietal characteristics: The case of rice •farmers in Africa [Aliou Diagne, Didier Y. Alia*, Marco Wopereis and Kazuki Saito, Africa Rice Centre: [email protected]]Managing food Price Risk: Simulating a Hedging Scheme for Maize Imports in Kenya• [Lydia Ndirangu and Joseph Nzomoi , Kenya School of Monetary Studies, [email protected] Importance Of Food And Oil Prices In Inflation In A Net Oil-Importing Economy• [Roseline Nyakerario Misati, Esman Nyamongo and Isaac Mwangi: [email protected]; [email protected]]Schooling Externalities in Urban Nigeria: The Social Interactive Sources• [Musiliu Adeolu Adewole: [email protected]; [email protected]]

[B4:] Oil in Africa: Venue: HONEYBEES, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Lawrence Bategeka, Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, [email protected]

Oil Abundance, Institutions and economic development in Algeria: An empirical investigation”.• [Abdelhak Benamar and Mohamed Benbouziane, Tlemcen University, Algeria, [email protected]; [email protected]]Is Chad Affected by Dutch or Nigerian Diseases?• [Sandrine Kablan: [email protected]]Modeling Energy Demand with Regime Shifts: Empirical Evidence from an Oil Rich Developing Country• [Olusegun A. Omisakin: [email protected]]Oil wealth and potential Disease Dutch effects in Uganda• [Lawrence Bategeka and John Mary Matovu, Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, [email protected]]

[C4:] Poverty and household economics: Venue: MAGNOLIA, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Boniface Ngah Epo, University Of Yaounde II, [email protected]

Ill- health and labour market outcomes in Uganda• [Fred Matovu, Patrick Birungi, and Richard Sebaggala, Uganda Christian University Mukono, [email protected]]Factors Affecting Loan Delinquency in Microfinance Institutions in Kenya• [Beatrice Warue Njeru, Kenya Methodist university, [email protected]]Impact of Rice Research on Income and Poverty in Africa: An Ex-ante Analysis• [Aliou Diagne, Didier Y. Alia, Marco C.S. Wopereis, and Kazuki Saito, Africa Rice Centre: [email protected]]The Effects of Socioeconomic Status and Health Insurance on the Demand for Prenatal and Postnatal Health Care •in Ghana [Vijay K. Bhasin and Camara Obeng, University of Cape Coast, Ghana, [email protected]; [email protected]]



Socio-Economic Determinants of Household Economic Well-being in Cameroon [• Boniface Ngah Epo and Francis Menjo Baye, University Of Yaounde II, [email protected]]

[D4:] Investment and Manufacturing : Venue: HIBSCUS,4TH FLOOR

Chair: Bright Orhewere: [email protected]

Composition of Public Investment and Private Investment in Nigeria: Crowding-In and Crowding-Out Effects• [Awolaja, Gbenga Oladapo: [email protected]; [email protected]] Comparing the Performance of Uganda’s Intra-East African Community Trade and Other Trading Blocs• [Isaac Shinyekwa, Lawrence Othieno: [email protected]]Economic and Political Institutional Reforms and Economic Outcomes in Africa: A Micro econometric Analysis• [A. Iwayemi and A. A. Kilishi: [email protected]; Kilishi-a@unilorin] Foreign Direct Investment and Export performance of the Ugandan Manufacturing sector: empirical evidence• [Justine Nannyonjo, Bank of Uganda, [email protected]]Innovation and firm growth: Firm level evidence from Uganda• [Aggrey Niringiye, Makerere University Kampla, Uganda, aggrey1970 yahoo.com]Short And Long-Run Analysis of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Nigeria• [Bright Orhewere: [email protected]]



Day 3Friday, July 27, 2012

8.30 Plenary Session IV: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOORChair: Prof Ddumba Ssentamu, Principal COBAMS, Makerere University

Keynote Papers by:Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Institute, African Development Bank•Title: “The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) Tool and Data: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”Prof. Rabah Arezki, International Monetary Fund•Title: ”The Political Economy of Natural Resource Richness”

10:30 COFFEE BREAK

11:00 – 13:30 Parallel Session V

A5: Econometric Theory and Methods II

B5: Climate Change/Environmental Economics

C5: Regional Studies

D5: Monetary Policy

13.30 – 14:30 LUNCH BREAK - CHOPSTICK 4TH FLOOR

14.30 Annual General Meeting: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOOR

15.30 Executive Committee Meeting: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOOR

END OF THE 17TH AES CONFERENCE



PARALLEL SESSION V: [11h00-13h00]Please note that the last presenter of the session will be the chair; and each presentation is permitted 30 minutes including 10 minutes for questions and answers.

[A5:] Econometric Theory and Methods: Venue: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOOR

Chair Mwangi Isaac Wachira, Central Bank of Kenya, [email protected]

Risk premiums, market efficiency and optimal hedging: The case of cocoa futures markets• [Williams Ohemeng and Bo Sjo: [email protected]; [email protected]]Modeling Volatility of Price of Some Selected Consumer Products in Hawassa City, Ethiopia: ARCH-GARCH• [Yegnanew Alem Shiferaw: [email protected]]Modeling Inflation Types and Their Volatilities in Nigeria: An Application of Garch Models• [Babatunde S. Omotosho and Sani I. Doguwa, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]; [email protected]]Effects Of Outliers On The Estimation Of Simultaneous Equation Model With Ar(1) Disturbances: A Simulation Approach• [Olaomi, J. O, Adepoju Adedayo, and Ssekuma Rajab, University of South Africa, [email protected]] Customs Automation Initiatives And Their Impact On Efficiency And Productivity: Case Study On Uganda• [Justine Nannyonjo, Charles A. Abuka, Nicholas Okot, Bank of Uganda, [email protected]; [email protected];[email protected]] Impact of Financial Literacy on Access to Financial Services in Kenya• [Mwangi Isaac Wachira and Kihiu Evelyne Nyathira: [email protected] ]

[B5:] Climate Change/Environment: Venue: HONEYBEES, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Yongfu Huang, UNU- WIDER, [email protected]

Solid waste disposal among urban agricultural households: A multinomial Logit analysis in lowland area of Yaoundé• [Awah Manga Lucien Armel: [email protected]]Applying Inventory Models To Evaluate Water Productivity And Optimize Food Production In The Course Of Climate •Change – Lessons From Smallholder Farms In Machakos District, Kenya [Cush Ngonzo Luwesi, and Chris Allan Shisanya, Kenyatta University, [email protected]]Impact of Climate Change and International Trade on Crop Biodiversity in West Africa Countries• [Aboua Angui Chris-tian Dorgelès Kevin: [email protected]]Global Agreements: Is Convergence Possible• ?” (Yongfu Huang, UNU- WIDER, [email protected])

[C5:] Regional studies: Venue: MAGNOLIA, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Afees Salisu, University of Ibadan, [email protected]

Current Account Sustainability in the EAC Countries: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Exports and •Imports [Moses Kiptui [email protected]]Uganda’s revealed Comparative Advantage: The Evidence with the EAC and China• [Isaac Shinyekwa and Lawrence Othieno, Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, [email protected]]Foreign Aid and Domestic Tax Revenue in Uganda• [Eria Hisali [email protected]]Empiric Study of the Impact of the Sector ICT on the Moroccan Economic Growth • [Souleymane Sakande [email protected]]East Africa Trapped in the Malthusian Trap and Getting Out: Comparison of Attempts and Prospects for Uganda, •Kenya, and Tanzania [Julia V. Zinkina, Russian State University for the Humanities [email protected]]Modeling and Forecasting the Risks of Socio-Political Instability for Countries Successfully Escaping the Malthusian •Trap. The East African Case [Andrey Korotayev and Julia V. Zinkina, Russian State University for the Humanities, [email protected] ]The Trade effects of the WAEMU in a spatial framework• [ S.O. Olofin, Afees Salisu, Idris Ademuyiwa and Joel Owuru, University of Ibadan, [email protected]]On the Estimation and Prediction of Bilateral Trade Flow models• [Jean Marcellin Bosson Brou, Email:[email protected]]



[D5:] Monetary Policy: Venue: HIBSCUS, 4TH FLOOR

Chair: Odeniran, Samson, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]

Monetary Policy and Growth in Africa: Effects of Transparency• [Francoise Okah Efogo, University of Yaoundé II, [email protected]]Demand for International Reserve in Nigeria: Evidence from an Ardl Specification• [Mohammed Isa Shuaibu and Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim: [email protected]; [email protected]]Output Growth, Exchange Rate and Inflation Response to Monetary Growth in Nigeria: A Structural Cointegration VAR •Approach [Adenuga Adeniyi and P. Evbuomwan, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]]Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in an Estimated DSGE Models for the Nigerian Economy• [Michael Adebiyi, Abeng Magnus and Margaret Hilili, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]]Excess Reserves in Uganda’s Banking System and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy• [Kenneth Egesa, Bank of Uganda, [email protected]]Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Developing Countries: Evidence from the Central Bank of Kenya Macroeconomic •Model [Maureen Were, Esman Nyamongo, Moses Sichei, Anne Kamau and Joseph Wambua, Central Bank of Kenya, [email protected]]Monetary Policy and Stock Price Movement: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria [• Odeniran, Samson, Central Bank of Nigeria, [email protected]]

Day 4 Saturday, July 28, 2012

Think Tank Session

The Flow of Funds ApproachVenue: SUNFLOWER, 4TH FLOOR [Attendance by Invitation]

09:00 Opening remarks:Sarah Ssewanyana, Executive Director, EPRC

09:15–10:15 First session: Topic: The Flow of Funds Approach: overview and case study Presenter: Prof. Victor Murinde, Director, African Development Institute, AfDB Chair: Oluyele Akinkugbe, Professor & Dean of Economics, University of Namibia

10:15–10.30 TEA/COFFEE BREAK

10:30-12:30 Second session:Working groups on1. Flow of funds and capacity challenges2. Management of capital flight and illicit flows3. Financial sector reforms and fiscal policy

12:30–14:00 Lunch Break14:00 – 15:00 Third session:

Presentation of working group reports15:00 – 16:00 Fifth session:

Plenary discussion of working group reports16:00–16:20 Wrap-up: Summary of key policy recommendations and new research areas

Prof. Bernadette Kamgnia, Manager, Development Management and Policy Dialogue, African Development Institute, AfDB

16:20-16:30 Vote of thanksMartin Browbridge, Advisor to the Governor, Bank of Uganda



The Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) is an autonomous not for profit organization established in 1994 and has offices in Makerere University, Kampala. Since its inception, EPRC has made significant contributions to national and regional policy formulation in Uganda and indeed throughout East Africa. External recognition of the Centre’s success has been cited by the World Bank Research Observer (2002, Vol. 17), which identified EPRC as an independent research institution that contributed to the powerful impact that research has had on policy in Uganda. In addition, the annual think tank recognitions by University of Pennsylvania ranked EPRC 16th out of 550 think tanks in Africa and the number one institution in Uganda in 2012.

The centre maintains active collaborations in research and capacity building with Makerere University academic departments, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development, Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries, National Planning Authority, and several other government, donor and private sector institutions.

Internationally, EPRC maintains strong research and capacity building linkages with the CSAE University of Oxford, African Economic Research Consortium, the World Bank, United Nations Development Program, and International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada, Cornell University, and the Global Development Network (GDN).

Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC)

The Bank of Uganda (BoU) is the Central Bank of the Republic of Uganda. It was opened on the 15TH August 1966. It is 100% owned by the Government of Uganda but it is not a government Department. Bank of Uganda conducts all its activities in close association with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED).Bank of Uganda is responsible for monetary policy and maintaining price stability. The mission of Bank of Uganda is to foster price stability and a sound financial system. The vision of bank is to be centre of excellence in upholding macroeconomic stability

The Bank of Uganda conducts all its activities with the aim of fulfing its Mission. These activities are carried out under the mandate of the Bank of Uganda Act, 2000 and other legislature. The Bank’s core activities are:

(1) Issuance of Uganda’s national currency/legal tender, the Uganda Shilling (UGX);

(2) Regulation of money supply through Monetary Policy; (3) Banker to the Government of Uganda;

Bank of Uganda

(4) Banker to Commercial Banks; (5) Supervision and regulation of Financial Institutions; (6) Management of the country’s external/foreign reserves; (7) Management of Uganda’s external debt; AND (8) Adviser of Government on financial and economic

issues;

The Board of Directors is responsible for overall management of the Bank. It is appointed by the President of the Republic of Uganda and is composed of: (1) The Governor and Chairman of the Board; (2) The Deputy Governor and Deputy Chairman of the Board;

and (3) not more than 5 other members.

Bank of Uganda Headquarters are located on Plot 37/45 Kampala Road. The Bank has 5 branches headed by Branch Managers in Kampala, Jinja, Mbale, Gulu and Mbarara towns. The Bank also has 4 Currency Centers headed by Currency Officers in Kabale, Fort Portal, Arua and Masaka towns.

Institutional Profiles



The College of Business and Management Sciences (COBAMS) was formed in November 2010 through the merger of former Faculty of Economics and Management (FEMA) and the Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (ISAE). The College of Business and Management Sciences (COBAMS) is comprised of three schools: (1) School of Economics; (2) School of Business; and (3) School of Statistics.

COBAMS currently has students enrolled on the following programmes: (1) Bachelor of Arts Economics; (2) Bachelor Arts in Development Economics; (3) Bachelor of Commerce (with specialization options

in Accounting; Finance & Banking; Marketing and Insurance);

(4) Bachelor of Business Administration (with specialization options in Procurement; Human Resources management; Entrepreneurship and International Business); and BSc Quantitative Economics .

The postgraduate courses offered include:(1) Master of Economic Policy and Planning; (2) Master of Economic Policy Management; (3) Master of Arts in Economics; (4) Master of Business Administration (with specialization

options in Accounting; Finance; Human Resource Management; Public Sector Management; and Health Care Management);

(5) MSc. in Quantitative Economics (Msc QE); (6) Msc. in Population Studies; (7) and PhD (Economics) (Coursework and Dissertation;

and (8) PhD Population Studies

COBAMS hosts three regional training Masters Degree programs, namely Collaborative Master of Arts (Economics) with support from the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC, Nairobi); Master of Arts (Economic Policy Management) with support from the African Capacity Building Foundation and the Joint Japan/World Bank Graduate Scholarship Program; as well as the Master of Arts (Gender Analysis in Economics) with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

College of Business and Management Sciences (COBAMS), Makerere University

Since its inception in 1973, the African Development Institute (ADI) has overtime become the focal point for capacity development for the African Development Bank (AfDB). In particular, the ADI is responsible for:

Establishing partnerships with other national or regional •institutions involved in capacity development.Partnering with other institutions such as the ACBF, •AERC, JICA, InWent, IMF, OECD, UNDP, WB, ILO, and the WTO, to develop country-profiles on capacity development and allow the Bank to make well informed recommendations.Participating in the review of projects documents and •Country Strategy Papers to provide guidance on the adequacy and scope of their capacity development activities.Establishing and maintaining a network of institutions •involved in capacity development in Africa and a network of experts including alumni of the AfDB course participants with a view to develop and maintain a community of practice.

Strengthening the management, processing, and •dissemination of knowledge for the benefit of the AfDB and African countries.

The Institute contributes to building capacities in the institutions of African countries. The objective is to improve the capacity of the regional member countries to enable them respond to development challenges, while enhancing the quality of its project portfolio.

ADI’s training focuses on improving the design and implementation of Bank-financed operations and respond to needs identified by the countries. ADI organizes project implementation workshops to familiarize project staff and civil servants of concerned ministries with AfDB’s procurement, disbursement, and audit procedures. These work shops have proved to be an excellent framework for exchange of ideas between AfDB’s staff and national project staff resulting in greater project implementation effectiveness.

African Development Institute (ADI) of African Development Bank (AfDB)



The African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), established in 1988, is a public not-for-profit organization devoted to advanced policy research and training. AERC is inspired by a long-term vision of a future in which all people who live in sub-Saharan Africa do so in a state of dignity and well-being. This informs the organizational vision and mission.

In response to special needs of the region, the AERC Research Programme has adopted a flexible approach to improve the technical skills of local researchers, allow for regional determination of research priorities, strengthen national institutions concerned with economic policy research, and facilitate closer ties between researchers and policy makers. The Training Programme augments the pool of economic researchers in sub-Saharan Africa by supporting graduate studies in economics as well as improving the capacities of departments of economics in local public universities. AERC is supported by donor governments, private foundations and international organizations.

VisionSustained development in sub-Saharan Africa grounded in sound economic management and an informed society.

MissionTo strengthen local capacity for conducting independent, rigorous inquiry into problems pertinent to the management of African economies, through a synergetic programme combining research with postgraduate training in economics.

ObjectivesEnhance the capacity of locally based researchers to conduct policy-relevant economic inquiry,Promote the retention of such capacity, andEncourage its application in the policy context.

This basically means that people who come through the AERC system are expected either to work within the economic policy context or to train other economists to do so.

Core ValuesVisionary leadershipNon-profit integrity and accountabilityResponsibilityCooperation beyond bordersVoluntarismTransparency and public mindednessComprehensive viewpoint

The African Economic Research Consortium

AAAWE is a not-for-profit International Professional Associa-tion and was established in March 2012. It is the first and only organization that focuses on building the capacity and skills of African women economists.

AAAWE aims to increase the number of African women econ-omists at all levels in academia, business and Government by promoting equal opportunity, creating opportunities to en-hance the capacity and skills of African women economists, supporting entry into the profession and promoting the career advancement of African women economists.

To achieve these objectives, AAAWE creates opportunities for networking and mentoring, assist members to obtain grants, fellowships and internships, and facilitate the creation and sharing of knowledge among members. Most of the activi-ties steered by AAAWE focus on facilitating the scholarship

of female economists who live in Africa, in particular, students (undergraduate and graduate), female faculty in Economics Departments in African Universities, and economists working in Government agencies and think tanks in Africa.

Any individual interested in the advancement of African wom-en economists may join the Association. Membership is open to all genders. Members are drawn from academia, business, Government, think tanks, international organizations and non-governmental organizations. For information about how to join, please visit www.aaawe.org . You may also contact

Professor Elizabeth Asiedu, [email protected]

ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF AFRICAN WOMEN ECONOMISTS (AAAWE)



The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) is based in Harare, Zimbabwe and has been business of capacity development for over 20 years. ACBF’s vision is for Africa to be recognized for its socio-political and economic capabilities and endowments a continent with effective institutions and policies acquired through sustained investment in people and institutions. The Foundation aims to become a leader, major partner, and centre of excellence for capacity building in Africa.

ACBF interventions are premised on four principles: the centrality of capacity to the development process in Africa; the critical role of a partnership and demand driven approach in tackling capacity challenges; African ownership and leadership in the capacity development process; and a systematic, sequenced and coordinated approach to the capacity development process. In carrying out its mandate, ACBF is guided by the pursuit of excellence, placing emphasis

on quality rather than quantity, attention to sustainability, recognizing that capacity building is a long-term process and is only worthwhile if development efforts become self sustaining; priority for African participation (ensuring African pre-eminence in defining the capacity building process and in playing a leading role in implementation), and by taking a highly strategic approach based on the following principles which maximizes the Foundation’s comparative advantage and its catalytic role in the area of capacity building:

ACBF projects and programs span the Foundation’s six core competence areas: (1) Economic Policy Analysis and Management; (2) Financial Management and Accountability; (3) National Statistics and Statistical Systems; (4) National Parliaments and Parliamentary Institutions; and (5) Professionalization of the Voices of the Private Sector and

Civil Society

African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)

The Think Tank Initiative is a multi-donor program dedicated to strengthening the capacity of independent policy research organizations in the developing world.Launched in 2008 and managed by Canada’s International Development ResearchCentre (IDRC), the Initiative is a partnership between IDRC, the William and FloraHewlett Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) and the Netherlands Directorate General for International Cooperation (DGIS).

The Initiative currently provides 49 think tanks in 22 countries with core, non-earmarkedfunding. This support allows the

Think Tank Initiative

African Econometric Society

institutions to attract, retain and buildlocal talent, develop an independent research program, and invest in public outreachto ensure that research results inform and influence national and regional policydebates.

This funding, in the shape of core grants, is combined with dedicated technicalsupport in three broad areas: research methods and skills, policy engagement andcommunication, and general organizational development. Among other activities, theInitiative supports peer-to-peer review, learning and exchange by bringing togetherthe funded institutions and outside experts.

The African Econometric Society is an international society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics. Members of the society are associated with academic institutions, and the private and public sectors who share the goal of advancing econometric research especially, but not limited to, African themes.

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