2. Importance of Energy to Human Population …...2013/06/02 · Richard Wrangham – How Cooking...
Transcript of 2. Importance of Energy to Human Population …...2013/06/02 · Richard Wrangham – How Cooking...
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2. Importance of Energy to Human Population Growth and the Economy
Gail Tverberg – Energy Economics and Analysis Modeling
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How might additional energy supply increase human population?
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} There are far more humans than chimpanzees or gorillas, for example
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World population from US Census Bureau, overlaid with fossil fuel use (red) by Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects.
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All species tend to produce more offspring than needed to replace their parents
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} Normally there will be some random variations among offspring } Under natural selection, only the best adapted will survive
} When humans have access to energy products, we circumvent this natural pattern } We want our own children to survive } We ourselves want long lives
} Result: Growing human population; shrinking population of species not favored by humans
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Without outside energy, species tend to stay in balance with other species
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Lotka Volterra Equations illustration from Italian Wikipedia
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Burning of wood gave humans an advantage 300,000 to 1,000,000+ years ago
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} Cooking food made calories more available to our bodies } Allowed more kinds of foods to be used } Allowed brain to grow larger, teeth smaller } Richard Wrangham – How Cooking Made Us Human
} Less chewing time gave more time for hunting, gathering, crafts } Fire kept people warm
} Extended area where humans could live
} Fire helped kill off animals – could use animals for food } Also led to extinction of many animals
} We now have evolved to need some cooked food } We cannot go backward
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Human population grew as energy use grew
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Watts per Capita
Population Per Square Kilometer
Animal-like human, using no supplemental energy 100
0.02 to .10 Hunter-gatherer 300
Limited Range
Agricultural 2000 40
Industrial 8000 400
Based on Yavinder Mahli, “ The Metabolism of a Human-Dominated Planet” in The Planet is Full, (Ed. Ian Goldin), Oxford University Press, 2014.
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Reasons for change to agriculture
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} Rising human population } Because of ability to use fire
} Many species of large animals killed off } Available food supply was down
} Also climate change problems
} Agriculture was the answer } Required many more hours of work per person } Total food available went up
} But health outcomes worse } Shorter heights; shorter life expectancy
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Kinds of energy before agriculture
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} Food energy } “Free” solar energy from the sun that helped grow food } Burning wood and other “biomass” } Dogs to help with hunting } Human energy
} Human thought } Ability to move, throw objects } Ability to hear } Ability to smell } Ability to communicate } Small amount of heat energy – like 100 watt bulb
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Energy added in agricultural period
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} Greater food production through } Use of human energy to produce habits for selected plants and
animals } Breeding of plants and animals for desired traits—more food } Crop rotation; use of manures for fertilizer } Irrigation and soil from flooding of rivers
} Animals to help with labor, transportation
} Wind power } Boats } Wind turbines
} Water powered mills
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A big need was supplemental heat energy
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} Heating needed for homes, business In cold areas } Heat used in refining metals, baking bread, dying clothes,
and many processes.
} Wood was over-used, led to deforestation } Needed to be cut and hauled from ever-longer distances } Raised production coasts } Coal was a cheaper alternative
} Deforestation also led to soil erosion
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England was early to ramp up coal use
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Source: Tony Wrigley http://www.voxeu.org/article/industrial-revolution-energy-revolution
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On previous slide, note:
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} Coal reduced wood usage } Greatly increased heating capacity as more coal added
} Animals used for plowing stayed about the same
} Wind and water were small energy uses } Before and after addition of coal } Provided only mechanical energy; needed heat
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Coal
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} Replaced firewood for heating } Needed where deforestation
} Replaced charcoal for metal making } Enabled more metal tools } Steel could be made, if iron also available
} Allowed new technologies, using steel } Steam engine } Railroads
} Allowed concrete in quantity } Permitted hydroelectric dams } Permitted electric wires; grid electricity
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Worldwide, coal and oil use ramped up mostly after 1800
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Based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent
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On a per capita basis, the big energy ramp-up came when oil was added after 1945
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Based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent, divide by population estimates.
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Growth in use of manufactured goods greatly increased after fossil fuel use
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Based on estimates of Angus Maddison
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Prior availability of coal enabled ramp up in oil
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} Gave steel needed for pipes used in extraction } Gave electricity used in refineries } Allowed many fewer workers on farms
} Potential workers for coal, oil, factories } Also allowed much more spending on education
} Debt also very important in rapid ramp up of oil } Debt from World War II started process } Follow-on debt after World War II } Allowed consumers to buy consumer goods using oil and coal
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World population ramped up quickly as oil energy was added after 1945
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Based on Agnus Maddison estimates www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm
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A few of oil’s many uses
} Fertilizer transport } Pesticides } Herbicides } Diesel for tractors } Fast transport to market } Diesel for irrigation } Fuel for refrigeration } Asphalt for roads
} Medicines } Plastics } Gasoline } Synthetic cloth } Building materials } Easier metal extraction
and working } Diesel for earth movers
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In China, coal predominates in energy mix
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Based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2014
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Worldwide, oil is the biggest source of energy, closely followed by coal
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Economy grows as energy and oil supply grows
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Data show a strong correlation between energy use and economic growth
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Source: Jean Marc Jancovici, http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/energy.html
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With respect to preceding chart showing Energy compared to World GDP
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} Strong correlation suggests: } If economic growth is to continue, increasing quantity of
energy products is needed
} Fitted line suggests } (1) Percentage growth is slowing over time } (2) In 2015, each 1.0% of energy growth corresponds to 1.2%
of world economic (GDP) growth } (3) There is not a lot of “efficiency” gain.
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Also strong correlation between oil use and economic growth
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Source: Jean Marc Jancovici, http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/energy.html
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Shift in trend in oil use in preceding chart corresponds to slope change on this chart
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Based on BP Review of World Energy 2014 and Vaclav Smil data prior to 1965
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Substantial change was made in oil usage in late-1970s to early 1980s
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} Response to high prices
} Cutbacks were made where it was easy to make cut-backs } Home heating changed from oil to other fuels } Electricity production changed from oil to other fuels } Japanese had already started making smaller, more fuel efficient cars
} Easy to copy elsewhere
} No similar change has occurred recently } “Low hanging fruit already picked”
} Still substantial switching to other fuels } Based on trend line in 2015, 1.0% oil growth corresponds to 1.7%
GDP growth
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Energy and Jobs
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What kinds of jobs can we have without energy use?
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Energy transforms raw materials (resources) into finished products
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Energy and physical resources also provide jobs outside agriculture.
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Non-Ag Jobs
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Without much extra energy supply, most workers are subsistence farmers
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Added Energy % Farmers Per Capita
Country
Burundi (Africa) 90%
Ethiopia (Africa) 85%
Cambodia (Asia) 56%
India (Asia) 49%
China (Asia) 34%
Brazil (South America) 16%
Italy (Europe)
United States (North America)
4%
1%
0.47
1.59
4.23
316.95
125.53
57.70
75.84
18.69
Note: % Agriculture from CIA World Fact Book; Energy Per Capita based on 2010 EIA data.
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Our Recent Energy Problems
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Where do you see the biggest energy problems today?
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Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 data
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How much energy supply would be left, if oil and coal were removed from the mix?
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Based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2014
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Coal is of concern because of pollution issues – local and carbon dioxide
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Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy data
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Nuclear is now being scaled back because of safety concerns
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Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 data