Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 8th Ed, Ch 2, Copyright © John C. Hull 2013 Mechanics…
2-Fundamentals of Markets
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Transcript of 2-Fundamentals of Markets
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 1
Fundamentals of Markets
Daniel Kirschen
University of Manchester
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 2
Let us go to the market...
• Opportunity for buyers and
sellers to:
ß compare prices
ß estimate demand
ß estimate supply
• Achieve an equilibriumbetween supply and demand
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How much do I value apples?
Price
Quantity
One apple for my break
Take some back for lunch
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How much do I value apples?
Price
Quantity
One apple for my break
Take some back for lunch
Enough for every meal
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 6
How much do I value apples?
Price
Quantity
One apple for my break
Take some back for lunch
Enough for every meal
Home-made apple pie
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How much do I value apples?
Price
Quantity
One apple for my break
Take some back for lunch
Enough for every meal
Home-made apple pie
Home-made cider?
Consumers spend until the price is equal to their marginal utility
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Elasticity of the demand• Slope is an indication of the
elasticity of the demand
• High elasticity
ß Non-essential good
ß Easy substitution
• Low elasticity
ß Essential good
ß No substitutes
• Electrical energy has a very
low elasticity in the shortterm
Price
Quantity
Price
Quantity
Low elasticity good
High elasticity good
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• Mathematical definition:
• Dimensionless quantity
Elasticity of the demand
ε =
dq
q
d π
π
=
π
q ⋅
dq
d π
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Supply side
• How many widgets shall I produce?
ß Goal: make a profit on each widget sold
ß Produce one more widget if and only if the cost of producing it is
less than the market price
• Need to know the cost of producing the next widget
• Considers only the variable costs
• Ignores the fixed costs
ß Investments in production plants and machines
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How much does the next one costs?
Cost of producing a widget
TotalQuantity
Normal production procedure
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How much does the next one costs?
Cost of producing a widget
TotalQuantity
Use older machines
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 14
How much does the next one costs?
Cost of producing a widget
TotalQuantity
Second shift production
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How much does the next one costs?
Cost of producing a widget
TotalQuantity
Third shift production
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 16
How much does the next one costs?
Cost of producing a widget
TotalQuantity
Extra maintenance costs
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 17
Supply curve
• Aggregation of marginalcost curves of all suppliers
• Considers only variable
operating costs
• Does not take cost of investments into account
• Supply function:
• Inverse supply function:
Price or marginal cost
Quantity
π = S −1(q)
q = S (π )
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Market equilibrium
Price
Quantity
Supply curveWillingness to sell
Demand curve
Willingness to buy
marketclearingprice
volumetransacted
market equilibrium
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Supply and Demand
Price
Quantity
supply
demand
equilibrium point
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Market equilibrium
marketclearingprice
Quantityvolumetransacted
Pricesupply
demand
• Sellers have no
incentive to sell for less• Buyers have no
incentive to buy for
more
q*=
D(π *
)=
S (π *
)
π *
= D−1(q
*) = S
−1(q
*)
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 21
Centralised auction
• Producers enter their bids:quantity and price
ß Bids are stacked up toconstruct the supply curve
• Consumers enter their offers:quantity and price
ß Offers are stacked up toconstruct the demand curve
• Intersection determines themarket equilibrium:
ß Market clearing price
ß Transacted quantity
Price
Quantity
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 22
Centralised auction
• Everything is sold at the marketclearing price
• Price is set by the “last” unitsold
• Marginal producer:
ß Sells this last unit
ß Gets exactly its bid
• Infra-marginal producers:
ß Get paid more than their bid
ß Collect economic profit
• Extra-marginal producers:
ß Sell nothing
Extra-marginal
Infra-
marginal
Marginal producer
Price
Quantity
supply
demand
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© 2006 Daniel Kirschen 23
Bilateral transactions
• Producers and consumers trade directly andindependently
• Consumers “shop around” for the best deal
• Producers check the competition’s prices
• An efficient market “discovers” the equilibrium
price
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Efficient market
• All buyers and sellers have access to sufficient
information about prices, supply and demand
• Factors favouring an efficient market
ß
number of participantsß Standard definition of commodities
ß Good information exchange mechanisms
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Examples
• Efficient markets:ß Open air food market
ß Chicago mercantile exchange
• Inefficient markets:ß Used cars
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Consumer’s Surplus
• Buy 5 apples at 10p
• Total cost = 50p
• At that price I am getting
apples for which I would
have been ready to paymore
• Surplus: 12.5p
Price
Quantity
Total cost
Consumer’s surplus15p
10p
5
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Economic Profit of Suppliers
Quantity
Pricesupply
demand
π
RevenueQuantity
Price
supply
demand
Cost
Profit
• Cost includes only the variable cost of production
• Economic profit covers fixed costs and shareholders’returns
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Market equilibrium and social welfare
Q
π
supply
demand
Market equilibrium Artificially high price:• larger supplier profit• smaller consumer surplus
• smaller social welfare
Q
π
supply
demand
Welfare loss
Operating point
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Market equilibrium and social welfare
Q
π
supply
demand
Q
π
supply
demand
Market equilibrium Artificially low price:• smaller supplier profit• higher consumer surplus
• smaller social welfare
Welfare loss
Operating point
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Market Equilibrium: Summary
• Price = marginal revenue of supplier = marginal cost of supplier = marginal cost of consumer = marginal utility to consumer
• Market price varies with offer and demand
ß
If demand increases• Price increases beyond utility for some consumers
• Demand decreases
• Market settles at a new equilibrium
ß If demand decreases
• Price decreases• Some producers leave the market
• Market settles at a new equilibrium
• Never a shortage
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Advantages over a Tariff
• Tariff: fixed price for a commodity• Assume tariff = average of market price
• Period of high demand
ß Tariff < marginal utility and marginal cost
ß Consumers continue buying the commodity rather than switch toanother commodity
• Period of low demand
ß Tariff > than marginal utility and marginal cost
ß Consumers do not switch from other commodities