2. Demand Estimation

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DEMAND ANALYSIS DEMAND Demand for a commodity implies three things : (A) desire to acquire it (B) willingness to pay for it, and (C) ability to pay for it. The term demand becomes meaningful only when it has a reference to ‘a price’, ‘a period’, and ‘a place’.

Transcript of 2. Demand Estimation

Page 1: 2. Demand Estimation

DEMAND ANALYSIS

DEMAND

Demand for a commodity implies three things :

(A) desire to acquire it (B) willingness to pay for it, and (C) ability to pay for it.

The term demand becomes meaningful only when it has a reference to ‘a price’, ‘a period’, and ‘a place’.

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DETERMINANTS OF DEMAND

1. Price of the product (Px)2. Income of the Consumer (Y)3. Price of the related goods, substitutes or

compliments (Pr)4. Taste and Preference of the consumer (T)5. Fashion and Habits (F)6. Weather and Climate (W)7. Customs and Religious Practices (C)8. Advertisement (A)9. War and Emergencies (WE)10. Number of Consumers in the market (P)11. Consumer’s Expectation with regard to

future price (Sp)12. Changes in the Propensity to consume

(PC)13. Income distribution etc. (I)

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TRADITIONAL THEORY OF DEMAND

Four determinants - price of the commodity, other prices, income and tastes.

It examines only the final consumer’s demand for durables and non-durables.

It examines the demand in one market in isolation.

It does not deal with the demand for investment goods and intermediate goods.

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DEMAND FUNCTION

The demand function for a product explains the quantities of a product demanded due to different factors in the market at a particular period of time.

Dx = f (Px,Y,Pr,T,F,W,C,A, WE, P,Sp,PC ,I) Px = Price of the Product x. Y = Income of the consumer Pr = Price of the related goods T = Taste and Preferences of consumer F = Fashion and habits W= Weather and climate

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LAW OF DEMAND

The Law states that “ higher the price, lower the demand and vice versa, other things remaining the same”

Price Qty DemandedRS. 5 80 UnitsRs. 4 100 Units Rs. 3 150 UnitsRs. 2 200 Units

Demand Schedule Demand Curve

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EXCEPTIONS TO THE LAW OF DEMAND

1. Giffen’s Paradox2. Veblen Effect3. Fear of shortage4. Ignorance5. Speculation6. Conspicuous necessaries

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DEMAND DISTINCTIONS

1. Autonomous demand and Derived demand

2. Perishable and Durable goods demand

3. Consumer’s goods and Producer’s goods demand

4. Company demand and Industry demand

5. Demand by total market and by Market segments

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EXTENSION AND CONTRACTION OF DEMAND

Price (£)

Quantity Demanded (000s)

Demand

£10

£5

100 150

The demand curve slopes downwards from left to right (a negative slope) indicating an inverse relationship between price and the quantity demanded. Demand will be higher at lower prices than at higher prices. As price falls, demand rises. As price rises, demand falls.

A

B

C

Extension

Contraction

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INCREASE IN DEMAND AND DECREASE IN DEMAND

Price (£)

Quantity Demanded (000s)

Demand

£10

100

D1

D2

10 200

Changes in any of the factors affecting demand other than price cause the entire demand curve to shift to the left (less demanded at each price) or to the right (more demanded at each price).

IncreaseDecrease

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ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

Alfred Marshall who developed this concept defined it as “ The elasticity (or responsiveness) of demand in a market is great or small according as the amount demanded increases much or little for a given fall in price and diminishes much or little for a given rise in price.”

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PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND The price elasticity means the degree of

responsiveness or sensitiveness of quantity demanded of a commodity to a change in price.

Degrees of Price Elasticity1. Perfectly Elastic Pe = ∞2. Perfectly Inelastic, Pe = 03. Relatively Elastic, Pe > 14. Relatively Inelastic, Pe < 15. Unitary Elastic, Pe = 1

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INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMANDIncome Elasticity of demand is the ratio of proportionate change in the quantity demanded of a commodity to a given proportionate change in the income of the consumer. Income elasticity of (Ie) for a commodity is given by the formula.

Degrees of Income Elasticity Zero income elasticity Negative income elasticity Unitary income elasticity Greater than one Less than one

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ADVERTISING OR PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

It refers to the responsiveness demand to change in advertising or other promotional expenses.

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FACTORS DETERMINING ELASTICITY OF DEMAND1.Nature of the commodity : - The demand for

luxury goods is highly elastic while the demand for necessaries is generally inelastic.

2.Extent of use :- A commodity having variety of use has relatively elastic demand while a commodity having a specific use has relatively inelastic demand.

3.Substitutes :- The larger the substitutes a commodity has, the larger is the price elasticity of demand.

4.Proportion of income spent on the commodity : - If a person spends only a small part of his income on a commodity, his demand does not change much for price changes. Ex:-salt. Hence demand for such commodity is inelastic.

5. Durability : - Durable goods have high elasticity, whereas the perishable goods are less elastic.

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MEASUREMENT OF ELASTICITY

1. Total Expenditure or Total Outlay Method

2. Measuring Elasticity at a point.3. Arc method of finding elasticity

of demand.4. Mathematical method.

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DEMAND ESTIMATION1. The demand function for beer in a cityQd = 400 -4p, If P = Rs 10, 15, 12, 20, 25, 30 2. Qd = 1500 - 0.03p + 0.09AE, AE=Rs.10,000P = Rs. 10000, 9000, 8000, 7000 and 6000.3. The generalized linear demand for good X is

estimated to be Q = 250,000 – 500P – 1.50M – 540PR where P is the price of good X, M is average

income of consumers who buy good X, and PR is the price of related good R. The values of P, M, and PR are expected to be $200, $60,000, and $100, respectively. Use these values at this point on demand to make the following computations.

(a) Compute the quantity of good X demanded for the given values of P, M, and PR.

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THE GENERALIZED LINEAR DEMAND FOR GOOD X IS ESTIMATED TO BE Q = 50,000 – 500P (b) Calculate the price elasticity of demand

(Pe) At this point on the demand for X, when P= 10 and Q =60, Is demand elastic, inelastic, or unitary elastic? How would increasing/decreasing the price of X affect total revenue? Explain.

Total OutlayPrice (Rs)

Quantity Total Outlay

Value of Price Elast

Nature of Elasticity

10 10 100 Pe < 1 Relatively Inelastic8 12 96

6 16

4 24

2 25

1 60

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USES OF ELASTICITY

Pricing – Increase or decrease in price. Managing cash flows. Impact of changes in competitors’

prices. Impact of economic booms and

recessions. Impact of advertising campaigns. And lots more!

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THANK YOU

Dr. Pious ThomasMBA CoordinatorKristu Jayanti College

<[email protected]>