2. Counting and Probability - Modern States
Transcript of 2. Counting and Probability - Modern States
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2. Counting and Probability
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2.1.1 Factorials
2.1.2 Combinatorics
2.2.1 Probability Theory
2.2.2 Probability Examples
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2.1.1 Factorials
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• Combinatorics is the mathematics of counting. It can be quite delicate.
• Two important notions for us are those of combinations and permutations.
• In order to define these, we need the notion of factorial and binomial coefficient.
Combinatorics
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Factorial!• The factorial of a number is simply
the product of itself with all positive integers less than it.
• By convention, . • It is possible to define the factorial
for non-integers, but this quite advanced and is not part of the CLEP.
• When computing with factorials, it is helpful to write out the multiplication explicitly, as there are often cancellations to be made.
0! = 1
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n! = n⇥ (n� 1)⇥ (n� 2)⇥ ...⇥ 2⇥ 1
1! = 1
2! = 2
3! = 6
4! = 24
✓n
k
◆=
n!
k!(n� k)!
Formulas and Notations
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Compute the following:
5!
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6!
5!
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n!
(n� 1)!
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0!
2!
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✓6
2
◆
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✓3
3
◆
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✓7
0
◆
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✓5
3
◆
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2.1.2 Combinatorics
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Counting with Factorials• Factorials are useful for combinatorics, i.e.
problems involving counting. • Given objects, the number of groups of size
when order doesn’t matter is
• Given objects, the number of groups of size when order matters is .
✓n
k
◆=
n!
k!(n� k)!
n k
n kn!
(n� k)!
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How many groups of 3 from 10 are possible, if order matters?
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If order doesn’t matter?
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How many codes of length 2 may be generated from the letters {A,B,C,D,E,D} if the letters cannot be repeated, and order matters?
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What if repeats were allowed?
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2.2.1 Probability Theory
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Probability• Probability in mathematics quantifies random
events. • It is a large subject with a rich history; we focus on a
few basic ideas. • We consider the probability that events occur:
• Our goal is to understand how to compute such probabilities.
• Note that all probabilities have values between 0 and 1.
P(A)
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Notation• Let be any two events. • The union of is the event that either
occurs. It is denoted . • The intersection of is the event the that
both occur. It is denoted . • The complement of is the event that does not
occur. It is denoted . • There are some principle that dictate how to
compute these quantities.
A,BA,B A or B
A [BA,B
A and B A \BA AAc
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Basic Principles• Union Law:
• Events are independent if:
• The conditional probability of on is
• The law of the complement states
P(A [B) = P(A) + P(B)� P(A \B)
A,B
P(A \B) = P(A)P(B)
A B
P(A|B) =P(A \B)
P(B)
P(Ac) = 1� P(A)
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2.2.1 Probability Theory
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Probability• Probability in mathematics quantifies random
events. • It is a large subject with a rich history; we focus on a
few basic ideas. • We consider the probability that events occur:
• Our goal is to understand how to compute such probabilities.
• Note that all probabilities have values between 0 and 1.
P(A)
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Notation• Let be any two events. • The union of is the event that either
occurs. It is denoted . • The intersection of is the event the that
both occur. It is denoted . • The complement of is the event that does not
occur. It is denoted . • There are some principle that dictate how to
compute these quantities.
A,BA,B A or B
A [BA,B
A and B A \BA AAc
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Basic Principles• Union Law:
• Events are independent if:
• The conditional probability of on is
• The law of the complement states
P(A [B) = P(A) + P(B)� P(A \B)
A,B
P(A \B) = P(A)P(B)
A B
P(A|B) =P(A \B)
P(B)
P(Ac) = 1� P(A)
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2.2.1 Probability Theory
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Probability• Probability in mathematics quantifies random
events. • It is a large subject with a rich history; we focus on a
few basic ideas. • We consider the probability that events occur:
• Our goal is to understand how to compute such probabilities.
• Note that all probabilities have values between 0 and 1.
P(A)
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Notation• Let be any two events. • The union of is the event that either
occurs. It is denoted . • The intersection of is the event the that
both occur. It is denoted . • The complement of is the event that does not
occur. It is denoted . • There are some principle that dictate how to
compute these quantities.
A,BA,B A or B
A [BA,B
A and B A \BA AAc
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Basic Principles• Union Law:
• Events are independent if:
• The conditional probability of on is
• The law of the complement states
P(A [B) = P(A) + P(B)� P(A \B)
A,B
P(A \B) = P(A)P(B)
A B
P(A|B) =P(A \B)
P(B)
P(Ac) = 1� P(A)
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2.2.2 Probability Examples
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Draw one card from a full deck of 52, well-shuffled.
P(diamond or Queen)
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P(ace or King)
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P(diamond or club)
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Roll a die twice
P(roll 1 2 and roll 2 3)
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P(sum of rolls = 7)
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P(second roll di↵erent from first)
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For two events A,B, suppose P(A) =
1
2
,P(B) =
1
2
,P(A \B) =
1
3
.
Are A,B independent?