2-17 Debt Ceiling

8/7/2019 2-17 Debt Ceiling

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Wayzata 2010 Debt CeilingLab Group

WILL PASS

DEBT CEILING WILL PASS, CONGRESS HAS NEVER FAILED TO INCREASE THE DEBT LIMITWHEN NECESSARY EMPIRICS FLOW AFF

McClearn, Matthew, Canadian Business Fellow, Dancing On The Debt Ceiling, February 28, 2011,CANADIAN BUSINESS, http://www.canadianbusiness.com/managing/strategy/article.jsp?content=20110228_10007_10007 - 2/28/11

This might seem a historic moment, until one recognizes that many of his predecessors regularly wrote similar missives. The debt ceiling was introduced in 1917, at atime when America was issuing copious amounts of debt to finance its entrance into the First World War. The convention was to rack up debt only in times of war orserious economic crises, and to pay it down afterward. But after Second World War, repayment became exceedingly rare, necessitating frequent ceiling increases.

By the 1980s, votes were sometimes just months apart. As Geithner wrote in his letter, "Never in our history hasCongress failed to increase the debt limit when necessary." Indeed, Congress raised the ceilingwell over 70 times in the past half century. Nobody seems particularly worried about the votes bond markets barely react.

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WONT PASS

DEBT CEILING WONT PASS A REPUBLICAN CONGRESS MEANS PASSAGE WILL BEHARDER THAN EVER AND THE BILL WONT BE PASSED DOWN THE ROAD


But Alice Rivlin, a former Congressional Budget Office director who now works at the nonprofitBrookings Institution in Washington, perceives a genuine risk that Geithner won't get morecredit this time. "We have new people in Congress who are very adamant about deficitreduction," she says, "and not very sophisticated about the consequences of defaulting on the debt." And even if Congress does raisethe ceiling once again, these disputes will arrive more frequently and likely prove harderfought as America's fiscal train accelerates out of control.

THE DEBT CEILING BILL WILL NOT PASS EVEN WITH REPUBLICAN FISSURES, SENATEDEMOCRATS WILL NOT ACCEPT ANYTHING BUT A CLEAN BILL

Calmes, Jackie, Both Sides Are Braced for Debt-Limit Debate, February 11, 2011, NYTIMES,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/us/politics/12debt.html?src=twrhp

WASHINGTON With a showdown approaching overthe need to raise the federal debt limit, White Houseofficials feel they have the upper hand over Congressional Republicans who want to use the debate on themeasure to force deep spending cuts, people familiar with the administrations thinking say. While Republican leaders say they hope to avoid a market-shaking

crisis, many conservatives in the party are insisting on using the issue as leverage to extract big ifunspecified concessions fromPresident Obama, leaving Wall Street concerned and even some Democrats wondering if the White Houseis in for a more dangerous fight than it anticipates. If Congress does not act to increase the Treasury Departments legal borrowing limit, which could bereached as soon as the first week of April, the government would face problems refinancing its debt and raising money for its operations, and, at worst, would risk

default. Some Democrats say the White Houses hopes ofgetting Congress to approve a clean increase in the governmentsborrowing authority without any additional measures to cut the budget deficit are unrealistic with the House inRepublican hands. Republican leaders ability to rein in their members, however, is in question after the past week, which saw turmoil

within the party over issues like a Tea Party-backed demand for deeper spending cuts this year. Further complicating theoutlook, a small group of senators from both parties is mobilizing to step into any impasse to try tocompel two-party talks for a long-term deficit reduction plan like the one recommended inDecemberby a bipartisan majority of Mr. Obamas fiscal commission. The crux of the issue is whether there will or wont be a clean debt-limit bill, and thatsgoing to be difficult, said Roger Altman, an investment banker and former Treasury deputy in the Clinton administration. Soon, Mr. Altman added, this will be thecentral focus in Washington, and that of course may spill over into the business community and the financial community. Given the fiscal, financial and political

stakes in a still-weak economy, the coming confrontation is more widely anticipated than the release on Monday of Mr.Obamas budget for the 2012 fiscal year,which begins Oct. 1, 2011. Treasury SecretaryTimothy F . Geithnerhas notified Congress that sometime from April 5 to May 31, the government will exceedwhat it can now legally borrow to cover obligations ranging fromSocial Security benefits and war expenses to interest payments for Chinese creditors. Treasurycan extend the deadline several weeks through extraordinary measures, he wrote Congressional leaders, but even a short-term default would have catastrophic

economic consequences. In Washington on Wednesday, Mr. Geithner sounded optimistic, saying markets should understand that Congress will act asit always has to make sure we meet those obligations. Theres always a little political theater around this, he added. The situationpresents a particular challenge to SpeakerJohn A. Boehner, who has to navigate between the insistent demands of his Tea Party-backed members and theresponsibility that comes with power. Although partisan brinkmanship over the issue has occurred in the past, Congresses under the control of both parties havealways agreed to debt-limit increases to avoid undercutting the creditworthiness of the United States government and thereby igniting a crisis in the global markets. I

hope they arent sleeping at night, because we really are playing with fire, said Robert D . Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute, a Washington-basedresearch group, and a former director of theCongressional Budget Office, speaking of both parties. The administration has left it to Congress to decide how

much to raise the limit. The level will determine how soon the ceiling would need to be lift ed again. There is much speculation that Republicans could force a series ofshort-term extensions to keep pressure on the White House to give ground. Exactly what House Republicans want is unclear. They are split overhow much and specifically what to cut from so-called discretionary spending for nonsecurityprograms, which make up just over one-tenth of the federal budget. (Most of t he rest covers the military, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security andinterest on the debt.) We want to bank real spending cuts and spending controls going forward, said Representative Paul D . Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin,chairman of the House Budget Committee. Exactly how you do that and theres a lot of different ways of doing that is going to be in the details of negotiations.Yet any compromise is likely to upset many Tea Party activists and the scores of Republican lawmakers they helped elect in November. Were telling them not toraise the debt limit, said Mark Meckler, the co-founder and national coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots. When your credit card is maxed out, you dont go to thecredit-card company and say, Hey, if you would just give us more debt, it would be O.K. Further constricting House leaders room to maneuver are calls fromRepublican presidential aspirants not to raise the debt limit, or to force the Treasury Department to delay until Mr. Obama concedes to Republican demands

admonitions that harden conservative lawmakers opposition. Democrats say the White House believes it is well positioned for thedebate, at least initially, because of the Republican fissures, polls suggesting the unpopularity ofdomestic cuts that would be required, and, not least, the House Republicans shared responsibility forgoverning. But polls also show that Americans have a dim view of Mr. Obamas overall handling of the deficit and the economy. The White House will try to

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enlist Republican luminaries to echo its call for a clean bill given the economic dangers of political brinkmanship, officials say. Unbidden, theFederal Reservechairman,Ben S. Bernanke, implored Congress in a recent speech not to use the debt limit as a bargaining chip. Such pleas are expected to go unheeded. By

all accounts, Mr. Boehner could not pass a clean bill if he wanted to.Yet anything he adds to secure Republican votes isexpected to cost support from Democrats, already eager to vote no to force Republicans to takeresponsibility for passing a bill. Whatever the House does attach to a debt limit is expected to hita wall in the Senate, where Democrats retain a narrow majority. But Senate Democrats are also split on how to handle a debt- limitbill; their differences were aired at a party retreat this week. Most, including the majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada,

favor a clean measure. But a faction of mostly moderate Democrats wants some bipartisancommitment to negotiate a multiyear deficit reduction plan, and has been meeting with a few Senate Republicans to plantheir strategy.

THE DEBT CEILING BILL WILL NOT PASS THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, CONSERVATIVEDEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS, AND THE TEA PARTY HAVE ENOUGH POWER TO PREVENTPASSAGE

WORLD DAILY, Tea Party Joins Opposition To Raising Debt Limit, February 15, 2011, Tea party joinsopposition to raising debt limit http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=263933#ixzz1EGTOSwI9

WASHINGTON The largest tea party group in America has come out forcefully in opposition to raising the debt limit, adding more pressure to House Republicanswho can kill plans to permit continued borrowing by the federal government and thus mandate the most dramatic government cuts in spending in decades. MarkMeckler and Jenny Beth Martin, co-founders of the Tea Party Patriots, said in a statement, "Republican credibility as fiscally responsible managers of public

resources is on the line" with the issue of t he debt limit. "In a matter of weeks, Congress will vote on whether to raise the nation's

debt ceiling," they wrote. "The American people are united in saying 'no,' with recent polls indicating almost 70 percent of the American people opposed tothis reckless action. Once again, congressional Republicans will have the opportunity to demonstrate to the American people that they are serious about bringingfiscal responsibility to Washington. Tea Party Patriots will be watching." The tea party leaders said their group applied immense pressureto see that Republicans lived up to their pledge to cut an initial $100 billion from the budget . They called that "a goodstart" and a "first step." "Now it is time to do the right thing by not raising the debt limit," they said. "The whole nation is watching."Shock theWashington establishment by participating in the " No More Red Ink " campaign and shut down all new plans for bailouts , " stimulus" spending and even the funding forObamacare .More and more House Republicans are recognizing the biggest vote they will cast this year is on the question of whether to raise the debt limit becausethe new majority in the lower house can, by inaction alone, force the most dramatic spending cuts in American history. Rep. Reid Ribble, R-Wis., confronted FederalReserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a budget committee hearing last Wednesday on an earlier statement Bernanke made that it would be "reckless" for Congressnot to approve an increase in the $14.3 trillion debt limit. "Is it not also reckless to have the level of uncontrolled spending that the American people have beenwitnessing over the last 20 years or so?" Ribble asked. "Absolute ly ," Bernanke replied , " and I don 't mean to imply you shouldn 't address that . Ijust think they shouldbe done separa tely ." What is emboldening Republicans even to the point ofbucking the ir own leadership ? The organizer ofa campaign to persuade HouseRepublicans to hold the line on any more borrowing says the grass -roots effort is working ."I'm seeing more and more Republicans recogn izing what we 've beensay ing in the 'No More Red Ink ' campaign ," says Joseph Farah of WND, who has spearheaded the mailing of 250,000 letters to 242 House Republicans in an effort toblock the raising of the debt limit. "This campaign is working. But we need the public to pour it on now because time is running out." While the latest poll shows 70percent of Americans opposed to raising the debt limit, House Speaker John Boehner has signaled his intent to push for it surrendering, Farah says, the onlyweapon Republicans have that can force cuts beyond those that will be accepted by the Democrat-dominated Senate and Barack Obama. Rep. Michael Burgess, R-Texas, is another member to publicly oppose the move. "Voting to expand the limit is a bad idea," he told WND. "I must be convinced we have wrung every nickel of

spending out of this. Even then you are correct, this is the one tool available to us, and unilateral disarmament leads to financial Armageddon." Burgessjoins Reps. MichelleBachmann, R-Minn., RonPaul, R-Texas, AnthonyWeiner, D-N.Y.,and others who publicly opposeraising the debtlimit. It takesonly 218 votes in the House to block the move, and Republicans control242 votes.Two weeks ago, Farah was not so optimistic victory in the long-shot campaign to freeze the federal government's debt limit, thus creating thebiggest political earthquake to hit the nation's Capitol since Ronald Reagan's election as president. Today, he's jubilant about what he sees as a political "tidal shift"within the House Republican majority. The difference?The " No More Red Ink " campaign is working, he says. "The latest poll from Investors Business Daily shows

70 percent of Americans opposed to raising the debt limit, " says Farah, editor and chief executive officer of WND."Among Republicans, it's86 percent opposed. AmongDemocrats, it's55 percent."And that's just the beginning,says Farah. His campaign has managed to ship 250,000 messages to House Republicans who wield the power to accomplish this mission without anyhelp from Democrats or the consent of the Senate orBarack Obama. That's during a two-week period in which there was virtually no media coverage of thecampaign or even a hint that House Republicans were taking the protest seriously. That has all changed, he says. "This campaign is now getting help f rom tea party

activists across the country," he said. "We're getting lots of support from Republicans in the Housewho don't approve of theirleadership's concession on this issue. This is about to explode on the nation as the mostimportant vote Congress will hold this year or any year one that can completely break thechain of business as usual in Washington." The"No More Red Ink " campaign demands House Republicans stop all deficitspending this year by freezing the debt limit at $14.3 trillion and forcing major cuts in so-called "entitlements" and all non-essential spending. All it takes is a simple"no" vote when the debt limit bill comes to the House. Republicans control 242 votes. It takes 218 to stop it. The growing controversy within the House Republicanmajority about the debt limit is being called Boehner's defining moment as speaker. And with 70 percent public opposition to "his go-along-to-get-along notion," Farah

says Americans have a real chance of ending business as usual in Washington. "I honestly feel like we are winningthe biggest congressional battle of thedecade bigger even than health care, becausefreezing the debt limit will deprive Obama of the funds he needs toimplement his socialist nightmare on the country," says Farah.

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DEBT CEILING GOOD

UNEXTENDED DEBT CEILING WILL LEAD TO ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IN SPRING GEITHNERPROVES


Could the United States default? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says it could happen as early asthis spring. In January, he warned the U.S. Senate in writing that unless Congress acts swiftly, American soldiersdeployed worldwide might stop receiving paycheques. Interest payments on U.S. Treasurybonds could cease, as might unemployment and Medicaid benefits to states. The fallout wouldmake the collapse of Lehman Bros. seem like the closure of a corner pizzeria by comparison."Even a very shortterm or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences thatwould last for decades," Geithner wrote. Geithner's problem is that he's nearly maxed out his line of credit. For almost a century, Congress,which has absolute power over all fiscal matters by virtue of the U.S. Constitution, has for nearly a century imposed a hard cap (also called the "debt ceiling") on theamount of debt the Treasury can have outstanding. This statutory debt limit now stands at US$14.3 trillion a level Geithner predicts will be reached sometimebetween April 5 and May 31. At that point he will be unable to issue bonds to meet America's obligations. Geithner wants more headroom. Unfortunately for himthough, Republicans won a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in November's midterm elections, and many particularly those endorsed by the TeaParty movement are spoiling to rein in government spending, and they see the debt ceiling as the fulcrum. In early January, Republican Sen. Jim DeMint called on

fellow conservatives to just say no. "We need to have a showdown that we're not going to raisfgfeour debt ceiling anymore," he told Human Events, a conservative

magazine, in an interview. "We are going to cut things necessary to stay within the current levels." Impossible, Geithner retorts. Although in yearspast the Treasury used extraordinary measures to forestall default while Congress bickered, thistime such tactics would buy a few weeks at most, he claims. Even draconian cuts to federal spending wouldn't do the trick. Indeed,recently the Congressional Budget Office declared that if current laws remain unchanged, the U.S.will rack up a staggering US$1.5 trillion deficit this year.

Page 4 of 6


5/6


NO IMPACT

NO IMPACT TO BREAKING THE DEBT CEILING SALE AND LEASEBACK, SUBPRIME DEBT,AND QUANTITATIVE EASING TECHNIQUES CHECKBACK ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

Hutchinson, Martin, Contributing Editor Money Morning, Washingtons Debt-Ceiling Debate A Political

Sham, February 15, 2011, MONEY MORNING, http://moneymorning.com/2011/02/15/washingtons-debt-ceiling-debate-a-political-sham/

Washington's Debt-Cei ling Debate A Poli tical Sham By Martin Hutchinson, Contributing Editor, Money MorningI have to tell you that - as a former internationalmerchant banker - I want to laugh out loud when I hear the dire predictions of how the United States will have to default if Congress doesn't raise the nation's debt

ceiling. With a little Wall Street-style creative financing - even when the government's outstanding debt level reachesthe official limit of $14.3 trillion sometime around the end of March - there's no reason why the country can't goon borrowing as if nothing has changed. The debt-ceiling debate is something you're going to hear a lot about in the days and weeks tocome. The Obama administration just yesterday (Monday) introduced its fiscal 2012 budget proposal - a spending plan that's certain to ignite a firestorm ofdebatebetween Democrats and Republicans. And those arguments about next year's spending plan will absolutely feed into aheated showdown over the federal debt

ceiling. But the two sides are arguing about the wrong thing: It's the country's debt load - not the debt ceiling - that has to beaddressed. And I can prove it to you. Like a consumer who's in over his head, Uncle Sam has several alternatives availablebefore his creditors arrive to repossess his vehicles and cut up his credit card. By highlighting some of the"debt dodges" that are available, I will show you that the dire near-term predictions aren't anything to fear. Long-term, however, this country really does need to slashits debt-load. But that requires a real commitment, not political maneuvering. False Alarm? U.S. President Barack Obama yesterday introduced his $3.7 trillionbudget plan for fiscal 2012, in which he aims to cut the federal deficit to $1.1 trillion next year. The spending plan will jump-start a debt-ceiling debate that's been

underway since late last year. Back in January, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged lawmakers to raise the$14.29 trillion debt limit -or risk a government default that would spark "catastrophic economicconsequences that would last for decades." In an appearance on Friday, Geithner said it's "essential" for Congress to raise the debt ceiling if the UnitedStates is to maintain investor confidence. Republicans have been calling for deep - and specific - spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit. But Geithnersaid the debt ceiling should not be used as a bargaining chip. Get ready to watch a majorpolitical battle. But the debt-ceiling debate is just so unnecessary. In thelong run, the American taxpayer would be better served by having the Inside-the-Beltway crowd make a real attempt to slash the federal debt load. In fact, shouldanyone down in Washington wish to ring me up, I could demonstrate three easy ways to sidestep the debt ceiling - freezing the debt-ceiling debate in its tracks by

proving that this looming confrontation is nothing but additional political theater. Let's look at each of my three debt-ceiling "solutions."Debt-Ceiling Debate Breakers Sale and Leaseback: This well-known technique is used by retail chains all over the world. So why not put it into effect ona much grander scale? After all, the United States has some pretty fancy assets, and can raise money by sellingthem. Naturally, it would not want to lose the use of, say, the White House, or the Smithson ian Institution (with contents), so it would lease the assets back,probably for a very long term. When the lease runs out - say, in 2061 - America's Chinese creditors would have the right to take over the White House. But, hey,

that's business. Needless to say, forsuch prestigious assets, the U.S. government could extract a premium price .The White House, after all, isn't just another 10,000-square-foot McMansion with a helipad: It has a fantastic view of the Washington Monument and the LincolnMemorial Reflect ing Pool, worth a premium to any self-respecting billionaire buyer. The only pity is that the United States can't play the ultimate trick with out-of-town

buyers by selling them the Brooklyn Bridge - the New York City Department of Transportation owns that. Subprime Debt: Once the U.S. government hassold and leased back all the assets for which it can find a convenient market, it can roll out a second Wall Street financing technique - the subprime mortgage.

Since Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCKO)are technically not part of the government,mortgages guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie don't count as public debt. Hence ifthe Department ofDefense (DoD) wants to buy a new bomber, it sets up a Special Purpose Vehicle (yes, another Wall Street dodge) to own the bomber, then finances itthrough a mortgage guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie. You may ask: Why subprime? Surely, the Department of Defense, as anagency of the U.S. government, can be trusted to pay its debts? True, but there's a small problem: Fannie and Freddie are only supposed to lend against housing.No worries - Wall Street has a solution to this, t oo: It's called the "no -docs ( no -documents) loan." (It also has another name: the "liar loan.") Back in 2006, a borrowerusing a no-docs loan to a $700,000 house did not have to note that he was doing so without a job. Similarly, this time around, the DoD won't have to declare that theasset being financed is a stealth bomber, not a house. To add verisimilitude, instead of naming the bomber "Enola Gay" or"Memphis Belle" or something equallyauthentic, the DoD can name the aircraft "31 Acacia Avenue" - and perhaps paint its nose a tasteful shade of pastel green. That way, the subprime mortgage thatfinances it will have just as much reality as the typical subprime loan of 2006 - and a rather better chance of getting repaid, if the Department of Defense comes into

some money somewhere along the way. Quantitative Easing: If Wall Street techniques prove themselvesinsufficient, the government can still sidestep the debt-ceiling debate by employing some"Bernanke-esque" tactics. Under the second round of quantitative easing, aptly referred to as "QE 2," the U.S. Federal Reserveand Chairman Ben S. Bernanke are creating $75 billion each month and using it to buy $75 billion ofmedium- and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. That, in itself, does not get around the debt-ceiling limits - the government still has tocreate the Treasury bonds to sell them to Bernanke. However, the actual existence of the Treasury bonds isessentially superfluous. Bernanke can achieve exactly the same monetary effect, without theannoying necessity of creating Treasury bonds and blowing through the debt ceiling, by printing$75 billion worth of $100 bills each month - and then driving them round to the U.S. Treasury building in a truck, where "Turbo Tim"Geithner can unload them and use them to pay bills. It would be quite a trucking job, mind you: $1 million in $100 bills weighs 22 pounds, so $75 billion would weigh750 tons - roughly 20 full truckloads. That's not an impossible quantity: The deliveries could be made daily, though the times would have to be staggered to foilhijackers. In any case, this operation, while cumbersome, would represent absolutely no change in monetary policy from what the federal government is currently

doing now. The Uncle Sam Sham It might be argued that the Wall Street and Bernanke-financing techniquesdescribed herein are thoroughly unsound, and are bound to lead to ruin. But so are themonetary and fiscal policies that the government is right now pursuing. And anyone who wants proof can justlook at the fact that the next big Capitol Hill fracas - after the one focusing on President Obama's budget plan for the new fiscal year - will be a debt-ceiling debate.Instead of all t his wheel-spinning and political grandstanding, what the administration and both parties in Congress should be focusing on is the serious long-termbudget adjustments and spending cuts that need to be made if this country is to regain its former strength and position of leadership in the global marketplace. Thedebt-ceiling debate is shaping up to be Washington's Waterloo moment: It's the debt load - not the debt ceiling - that matters and that must be addressed. Given howeasily a massive debt load can crush the finances (and future) of the person, company or government that has to endure it, it's clear to me that the time to attack andslash those trillions in federal debt is now - not later. Indeed, this may well be our last chance to do so.

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2-17 Debt Ceiling

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