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2-1 Slide 2 2-2 Analyzing the External Environment of the Firm McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter two Part 1: strategic analysis Slide 3 2-3 Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you should have a good understanding of: The importance of developing forecasts of the business environment. Why environmental scanning, environmental monitoring, and collecting competitive intelligence are critical inputs to forecasting. Why scenario planning is a useful technique for firms competing in industries characterized by unpredictability and change. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Slide 4 2-4 Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you should have a good understanding of: The impact of the general environment on a firms strategies and performance. How forces in the competitive environment can affect profitability and how a firm can improve its competitive position by increasing its power vis--vis these forces. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Slide 5 2-5 Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you should have a good understanding of: How trends and events in the general environment and forces in the competitive environment are interrelated and affect performance. The concept of strategic groups and their strategy and performance implications. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Slide 6 2-6 Creating the Environmentally Aware Organization McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Adapted from Exhibit 2.1 Inputs to Forecasting Slide 7 2-7 Environmental Scanning Surveillance of a firms external environment Predict environmental changes to come Detect changes already under way Proactive mode McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Environmental scanning Slide 8 2-8 Environmental Monitoring Track evolution of Environmental trends Sequences of events Streams of activities McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Environmental monitoring Slide 9 2-9 Competitive Intelligence McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Define and understand a firms industry Identify rivals strengths and weaknesses Intelligence gathering (data) Interpretation of intelligence data Helps a firm avoid surprises Competitive intelligence Slide 10 2-10 What Competitive Intelligence Is and Is Not McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Competitive Intelligence Is 1.Information that has been analyzed to the point where you can make a decision. 2.A tool to alert management to early recognition of both threats and opportunities. 3.A means to deliver reasonable assessments. 4.A way of life, a process. Competitive Intelligence Is Not 1.Spying. Spying implies illegal or unethical activities. It is a rare activity. 2.A crystal ball. Competitive Intelligence is good approximation of reality; it does not predict the future. 3.Database search. Data by itself is not good intelligence. 4.A job for one smart person. Adapted from Exhibit 2.2 What Competitive Intelligence Is and Is Not Slide 11 2-11 Environmental Forecasting McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Plausible projections about Direction of environmental change Scope of environmental change Speed of environmental change Intensity of environmental change Scenario analysis Forecasts Slide 12 2-12 SWOT Analysis McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Managers need to analyze The general environment The firms industry and competitive environment SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Basic technique for analyzing firm and industry conditions Slide 13 2-13 The General Environment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. General environmental trends and events Little ability to predict them Even less ability to control them Can vary across industries General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Global Slide 14 2-14 Demographic Segment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Aging population Rising affluence Changes in ethnic composition Geographic distribution of population Greater disparities in income levels General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Slide 15 2-15 Sociocultural Segment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. More women in the workforce Increase in temporary workers Greater concern for fitness Greater concern for environment Postponement of family formation General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Global Slide 16 2-16 Political/Legal Segment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Tort reform Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 Deregulation of utility and other industries Increases in federally mandated minimum wages Taxation at local, state, federal levels Legislation on corporate governance reforms (Sarbanes-Oxley Act) General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Global Slide 17 2-17 Technological Segment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Genetic engineering Emergence of Internet technology Computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing systems (CAD/CAM) Research in synthetic and exotic materials Pollution/global warming Miniaturization of computing technologies Wireless communication Nanotechnology General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Global Slide 18 2-18 Economic Segment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Interest rates Unemployment Consumer Price index Trends in GDP Changes in stock market valuations General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Global Slide 19 2-19 Global Segment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Increasing global trade Currency exchange rates Emergence of the Indian and Chinese economies Trade agreements among regional blocs (NAFTA, EU, ASEAN) Creation of WTO (decreasing tariffs/free trade in services) General Environmen t Demographic Sociocultural Political/Legal Technological Economic Global Slide 20 2-20 The Competitive Environment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Sometimes called the task or industry environment Includes Competitors (existing and potential) Customers Suppliers Porters Five Forces model Competitive Environmen t Customers Suppliers Competitors Slide 21 2-21 Porters Five Forces Model of Industry Competition McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Adapted from Exhibit 2.6 Porters Five Forces Model of Industry Competition Slide 22 2-22 The Threat of New Entrants McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Profits of established firms in the industry may be eroded by new competitors High entry barriers lead to low threat of new entries Economies of scale Product differentiation Capital requirements Switching costs Access to distribution channels Cost disadvantages independent of scale Slide 23 2-23 The Bargaining Power of Buyers McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Buyers threaten an industry Force down prices Bargain for higher quality or more services Play competitors against each other Slide 24 2-24 The Bargaining Power of Buyers McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. A buyer group is powerful when It is concentrated or purchases large volumes relative to seller sales The products it purchases from the industry are standard or undifferentiated The buyer faces few switching costs It earns low profits The buyers pose a credible threat of backward integration The industrys product is unimportant to the quality of the buyers products or services Slide 25 2-25 The Bargaining Power of Suppliers McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Suppliers can exert power by threatening to raise prices or reduce the quality of purchased goods and services Slide 26 2-26 The Bargaining Power of Suppliers McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. A supplier group will be powerful when The supplier group is dominated by a few companies and is more concentrated than the industry it sells to The supplier group is not obliged to contend with substitute products for sale to the industry The industry is not an important customer of the supplier group Slide 27 2-27 The Bargaining Power of Suppliers McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. A supplier group will be powerful when The suppliers product is an important input to the buyers business The supplier groups products are differentiated or it has built up switching costs for the buyer The supplier group poses a credible threat of forward integration Slide 28 2-28 The Threat of Substitute Products and Services McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Substitutes limit the potential returns of an industry Ceiling on the prices that firms in that industry can profitably charge Price/performance ratio Slide 29 2-29 The Intensity of Rivalry among Competitors in an Industry McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Jockeying for position Price competition Advertising battles Product introductions Increased customer service or warranties Slide 30 2-30 The Intensity of Rivalry among Competitors in an Industry McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Interacting factors lead to intense rivalry Numerous or equally balanced competitors Slow industry growth High fixed or shortage costs Lack of differentiation or switching costs Capacity augmented in large increments High exit barriers Slide 31 2-31 Using Industry Analyses: A Few Caveats McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Five Forces analysis implicitly assumes a zero-sum game Five Forces analysis is essentially a static analysis Value net Suppliers and customers (the vertical net) Substitutes and complements (the horizontal net) Slide 32 2-32 The Value Net McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Adapted from Exhibit 2.7 The Value Net Slide 33 2-33 Evolutionary Trajectories of Industry Change McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Adapted from Exhibit 2.8 Four Evolutionary Trajectories of Industry Change Slide 34 2-34 Strategic Groups within Industries McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Two unassailable assumptions in industry analysis No two firms are totally different No two firms are exactly the same Strategic groups Cluster of firms that share similar strategies Breadth of product and geographic scope Price/quality Degree of vertical integration Type of distribution system Slide 35 2-35 Strategic Groups within Industries McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Value of strategic groups as an analytical tool Identify barriers to mobility that protect a group from attacks by other groups Identify groups whose competitive position may be marginal or tenuous Chart the future direction of firms strategies Thinking through the implications of each industry trend for the strategic group as a whole Slide 36 2-36 The World Automobile Industry: Strategic Groups McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management, 3/e Copyright 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Adapted from Exhibit 2.9 The World Automobile Industry: Strategic Groups