1st meeting ECDS Scientific Advisory Board and

10th meeting ECDS Board

Climate change data and information needs and relevant EEA activities

André Jol

European Environment Agency

• Global Framework for Climate Services (WMO GFCS)

• US, NOAA prototype

• Japan, other countries

• GMES is key European contribution to GEO/GEOS

What are climate services globally?

Source: WMO, http://www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/index_en.htmlNOAA, http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch

GCOS supports UNFCCC and GFCS

ECVs, both space and in situ monitoring

Additional costs: 2.5 billion USD/yr (1.0 for satellite data and 1.5 for in situ and national actions)

Global sustained funding for monitoring needed (in situ and satellite)

GMES to build on GCOS ECVs and quality procedures

What are GMES priorities for ECVs?

GMES and GCOS

Source: Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update), GCOS-138

• Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth: ‘strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks’

• Climate change adaptation (Mainstreaming in EU policies, Clearinghouse on adaptation by March 2012, EU strategy by 2013)

…’actors whose main tasks are not directly concerned with mitigation of, or adaptation to, climate change also work to attain these goals’

• Environmental policies:

• Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive

• Nature protection directives, policies to halt biodiversity loss

• Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

• Sectoral, cross-cutting: maritime, agriculture; forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure e.g. energy, transport (regional policies); urban areas

• GMES climate service

Key relevant EU policy processes

Summary of (EEA) user requirements

• Long series of processed observations (reanalysis), including daily data to capture extreme events

• High spatial resolution for gridded observations and projections (25 km or less, to allow analysis for river catchments, sea basins, bio-geographic regions)

• Pan-European coverage

• Consistency (time, space and between variables)

• Quality (fit for purpose)

• Easily accessible and transparent products and services for different users (experts, general public)

• Following SEIS principles and INSPIRE Directive requirements

GMES Climate Service expert group On 9th November 2010, the EU Regulation (911/2010) on the

European Earth monitoring programme (GMES) and its Initial Operations (2011-2013) have come into force

With this regulation GMES has become operational

The service component of GMES shall comprise i.a:

Access to information for CC monitoring in support of

mitigation and adaptation policies

November 2010: GMES CC expert group

April 2011: Consultation with major European (Climate-related) Institutions

Report “GMES Climate Service” open for discussionWMO-GFCS defines Climate Service as ‘Climate Information prepared and delivered to meet users needs’

User needs and Climate Quality (1)

GMES Climate service should support (Climate policy) users at European and National level European level: EC DG-CLIMA => White paper (2009): The

Clearing House Mechanism will rely on GMES information concerning climate change impact, vulnerability and best practices on adaptation. Both Observations and Model results

National level: Public Institutions, like National Meteorological Services

GMES Climate service will have to complement and interact with existing services and activities

The ambition of the GMES Climate Service must be to provide information products meeting the three GCOS goals: Monitoring the climate system Detecting and attributing climate change Assessing impacts of, and supporting adaptation to, climate

variability and change

This will be achieved through the 50 GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as endorsed by WMO, CEOS, COP, and UNFCCC All ECVs are required to support the work of the UNFCCC

and the IPCC All ECVs are technically and economically feasible for

systematic observation International exchange of these variables is required for both

current and historical observations

User needs and Climate Quality (2)

Products and tools for monitoring policies Climate monitoring and data integration

Focus on GCOS ECVs Recovery, lodging, digitally archiving, homogenization

Delivering of consistent data sets of observational data For climate model initialisation for seasonal and decadal predictions For re-analysis and attribution

Earth system re-analysis Including interactions between Atmosphere – Ocean – Land -Ice/Snow -

Hydrological Cycle – Dynamical vegetation Data assimilation with integrated observational data

Portal for climate impact indicators Improve historical records of impact indicators Conversion into gridded data sets covering sparse regions

Attribution service Natural climate variability versus human-induced effects Linking Desaster Risk Reduction to CC Relies on climate modelling capabilities

A Climate Service Flow Chart

Observations-Satellite-In SituESA – CCIEUMETSAT – SAFOther archives

Earth System Model- Atmosphere- Ocean- Land- Ice Snow- Hydro Cycle

Re-analysisData Assimilation

ECVsAtm/Ocean/Land/…- Interpolation- Mapping

All variablesAtm/Ocean/Land/…- ECVs- Many others (Atm 80 vars)

Prognostic ClimateAll variablesAtm/Ocean/Land/…- Hind Cast- 2020- 2050

Impact IndicatorsService

ECVs time series

All variables,gridded, Z-levels,hourly, re-analysis period

IndicatorsExample: T2, SST, YOLL, …

All variables,gridded, Z-levels,hourly, prognostic period

AttributionService

Infrastructure Post Processing Data BaseUser input Infra/User

GMES

The Helsinki Questions (conference June 2012) How to integrate research needs in the evolving service and which are priorities

– FP7/8?

Where to invest in supercomputing and how to integrate existing capacities?

How to support Climate prediction/projection/scenario – facilitate access to existing activities?

Will it be possible to address the huge challenge of an attribution service and how to interface with users?

Impact indicator service – direct generation and/or supporting tools?

How to implement links between GMES Climate Service and GFCS?

Expectations regarding data policy?

Roadmap for GMES Climate Service?

EURO4M (coordinator KNMI-NL; 9 partners; 04/2010 – 03/2014 ) ERA-CLIM (coordinator ECMWF-UK; 10 partners) MONARCH-A (coordinator NERSC-NO; 8 partners) CARBONES (coordinator Noveltis-FR; 14 partners)

«Full and open access to information produced by GMES services and data collected through GMES infrastructure, subject to relevant international agreements, security restrictions and licensing conditions, including registration and acceptance of user licences »

• Helps users aimed at developing climate change adaptation policies and actions to access and share information

• Launch 23 March 2012 (Connie Hedegaard, EEA)

• EEA to manage/maintain

• ETC CCA supports

• Key challenge: quality assurance/control of information

European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT)

See: http://ace.geocat.net/web/guest/home

Potential link of GMES data within (CLIMATE-ADAPT)

Climate change observations and scenarios

• GMES - Essential climate variables

• Link with GFCS + regional / national centers

• Land-use, water, socio-economic observations, statistics and scenarios

Adaptation measures,

actions

Extended database of measures

• Typology

• Assessment of environmental, social, economic impacts

• Identifying no-regret measures

Adaptation plans and strategies

• Information on existing adaptation strategies, key institutions and stakeholders

• Joint activitiesbetween MS and third countries (research, adaptation measures)

• Practical tools for the development of adaptation policy

Impacts & Vulnerability

Integration information on climate, land-use, water, ecosystems,

socio-economic variables

• Exposure to impacts, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

• Detailed geographical and sectoral perspective

• Vulnerability indicators, policy-oriented

• DG CLIMA manages, EEA+JRC support• Contractor up to March 2012, EEA maintains afterwards• Countries and others tested/commented on prototypes

2012 report on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

• Update/extension of 2008 report • Two parallel reports in 2012• Indicator-based (climate system; impacts

of climate change; vulnerabilities/risks)• Adaptation assessment (EU, national,

sectoral)

Objectives indicator report• Present past and projected climate change and

impacts through (about 40) indicators with communication of uncertainties

• Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk

• Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions

• Highlight gaps in monitoring, data, scenarios

Europe’s key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010), to be updated/extended for CC IVA 2012 report

16

Objectives, planning, content cities and adaptation reportObjectives:•To support stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation and urban development •To support policy development and decision-making across all spatial levels (EU, national, regional, local) (multilevel governance)

Planning:•Publication: May 2012

Content:

Initial in-situ requirements

Core services (FP7 project Jan 2010 – Dec 2012, climate change not included)

GISCGMES in-situ coordination

Land monitoring Atmosphere

monitoring Ocean monitoring Emergency response

© MyShotz.com/Fotolia

Source: http://gisc.ew.eea.europa.eu

Partnerships: Purpose and approach

To gain commitment from national authorities to secure some priority areas of

the in-situ capacity needed

To gain commitment from national authorities to secure some priority areas of

the in-situ capacity needed

International coordinating

bodies

to explore their potential

contributionfor sustainable provision of in

situ

International coordinating

bodies

to explore their potential

contributionfor sustainable provision of in

situ

Countries

to clarify capacities,

identify gaps and constraints and agree on commitment

Countries

to clarify capacities,

identify gaps and constraints and agree on commitment

Dialogue with the European coordinating bodies and other stakeholders•Country visits 2011: Norway,

France, UK, Italy, Czech Republic, Finland, Denmark; more planned in 2012

•Agreements:Signed with EuroGeoSurveys and

EuroGeographicsUnder negotiation with

EUMETNET and ECMWF

•Dialogue with Research projects: NORS, Jerico, EuroArgo, Ferrybox, etc

•Cooperation with international organisations

Photo: Pharma-alliance.com

In-situ requirements criticality breakdownFor more information: In-situ requirements report

SetupOperationalData AccessCoordination

Valuation of in-situ contribution (all GMES services) – annual costs in 1000 €

410,440 per annum

For more information: Cost valuation report

Foreseen EU contribution for operational GMES in-situ: 30 – 110 M€

Foreseen EU contribution for operational GMES in-situ: 30 – 110 M€

In-situ requirements for Land Cover GIO - land

Delegated tasks to the EEA

A. GMES land monitoring service: Pan-European Continental Component

Providing land cover and land cover change information at Pan-European scale

Production of 5 thematic high resolution layers

B. GMES land monitoring service: Local Component Providing very High Resolution information on

specific areas of interest at European level (as defined in GMES annual work programmes)

C. Dissemination + archiving + cataloguing According to Dissemination Plan

• GISC

• GIO land (European/local) coordination

• User forum

• GMES Committee

• GMES NFP Working Group

• ETC (European Topic Centres) (air, marine, land) collaboration

Summary of EEA involvement in GMES

European Environment Agency

• Scientifically sound monitoring data, reanalysis and indicators (space, in-situ)

• High resolution climate scenarios at right scales with proper communication of uncertainties

• Analysis of vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities using other scenarios (socio-economic, demographic, land use, ecosystems)

• Implementation and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into other policy areas and actions

• Analysis of effectiveness of adaptation strategies and actions

• Sharing and giving access to data and information through national platforms and EU adaptation portal (CLIMATE-ADAPT)

• Future GMES climate service will be important for policymakers, other users

Conclusions on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation