1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output;...
Transcript of 1Q08 results and comments - banpu.com · 1Q08 1.1 2Q08F 12.4:1 4.3 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.7 Stable output;...
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1Q08 results and commentsINVESTOR & ANALYST UPDATE
21 May 2008
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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu plc. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
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1. Introduction
2. Focus: Banpu coal pricing
3. Operational review
4. Commercial review
5. Financial review
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1. Introduction
Virach MakaranithirojHead of Investor Relations
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Banpu in 1Q08 - the figures
Coal sales
4.54 MTDown 0.5 MT
10% Q-Q Coal
7,561
110
1,161
818
Power
1,076
1,425*
1,398
1,256
Revenue
Equity income
EBIT
Net income
Total
8,637
1,535
2,559
2,074
Q-Q
-6%
150%
67%
5%
Unit: Bt. million
* From BLCP, including FX gain Bt504m
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2. Focus: Banpu coal pricing
Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer
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Banpu’s coal products
Barlow Jonker
MCV
Bontang 6250
LCV
Jorong J1
THAIs
Gross Calorific Value (kcal) Total Sulphur Total Moisture Ash
Note: All values are air dried (AD) unless otherwise indicated
4000 6700 0% 2% 10% 30% 0% 20%
6700 0.7% 12.0% 7.0%
6500 - 6550 0.8% 13.5 - 15.5% 4.5 - 5.5%
6250 0.8% 15.5% 4.5 - 5.5%
<6000 1.0 - 1.5% >18% 5.5%
5300 0.3% 30% 4.0%
<5000 2.0% >30% 15.0 -20.0%
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Price to quality relationship (2008 indicative)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
4,500 5,000 6,000 6,700
Regional benchmark*
Gross Calorific Value (air dried basis)
F.O.B. Price
* Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) : Newcastle for Japan
5,500 6,500
MCV
(40% sales)Bontang 6250
(39% sales)
LCV, High S
(5% sales)Jorong J1
(12% sales)
THAIs
(4% sales)
Size of bubble indicative of estimated % of sales tonnage in 2008
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2Q08
1Q08
4Q07
3Q07
2Q07
1Q07
Contracted prices vs. prevailing benchmark spot prices
% of annually settled contracts for MCV 6500MCV 6500
Contracted ASP
$50 $100 $150
BJI average
primarily contracted for 2008 deliveries
Contracted ASP vs. BJI prices ($/t)
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10
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Comparison: lag effects on reported Australian ASP’s
There is a ‘lag’ between the time when a sale is contracted and priced and the time of delivery (when ASP is reported)
BJI spot
Reported Australian export ASP’s for previously contracted shipments
$US/t
2007 2008
Price lag between BJI and reported ASP
Source: BJI, Platts, Australian Customs
Negotiation - price is contracted
Delivery – report contract price
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY
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2004/2005 2008
JPU* GC**JPU GC
$2
$4
$3
$4 In 2008, price premiums for Indonesian coals of $3.0 - $4.0 can be achieved when:
Relative re-rating of premium Indonesian coals
Prior to the current coal price boom, discounts of $2.0 -$4.0 were applied
* Japan Power Utilities - Average of annual term contracts to Japan Power Utilities (JPU) shipped from New South Wales and negotiated prior to 1st April of each year
** Global coal - Independent coal indices for Asian shipments from Newcastle, Australia
• Calorific values are similar to South African, Chinese or Australian coals
• Reliable supply can be assured
• Suppliers have an established track record of loading rates
• Direct sales between producer and customer
• Freight differentials are increased
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Conclusion
Banpu coal pricing is influenced by three main factors:
coal quality differentialstime lags in pricingcontractual terms, timing and the point of sale
The net effect creates the differences between Banpu’s ASP and major coal indices such as Barlow JonkerIndex, API#4
Banpu actively manages its sales strategy to maximise margins it can achieve through both tailored products and through cost management of deliveries
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3. Operational review
Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer
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Estimated 2008 production c.20m tonnes (excld. China)
Indominco-Bontang11.5 mt
Jorong3 mt
Thailand0.5 mt
Daning4.0 mt
(Banpu 12.5%)
Trubaindo5.0 mt
100% basis
Hebi1.5 mt(Banpu 40%)
Kitadin
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Indonesian and Thai coal production review and outlook
Indominco-BontangCV 6250 - 6500 kcal/kg
3.2
SR 10.5:1
2Q07
12.5:1
0.2
3Q
0.5
2Q07
SR 4.4
Kitadin-EmbalutCV 5800 kcal/kg
JorongCV 5300 kcal/kg
LP-2 / CMMCCV 4000 - 5000 kcal/kg
4.4
3Q07
TrubaindoCV 6550 – 7200 kcal/kg
11.3:1
0.2
4Q
0.8
2Q07 3Q07
SR 5.4
2Q07 3Q07
SR 4.3 4.3
2.7
4Q07
0.7
2Q08F
0.1
1Q08
1.1
2Q08F
12.4:1
4.3
4.4
3.1
1.0
0.7Stable output; Stripping
ratio unchanged
Thai mines are in closure stage due to reserves
depletion
8.0
Seasonal decline in 1Q08 production as
expected
Higher production is expected for following
periods
4Q07
4.3
0.6
4Q07
0.1
4.4
8.5
Evaluating alternatives to utilize
existing assets
2Q08F
2.6
1.0
07
1Q08
2.7
1Q08
9.2
0.9
1Q08
0.7
2Q08F
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DaningShanxi Province, PRC
CV 6800 – 7300 kcal/kg(Banpu 12.5%)
HZTM(Hebi Zhong Tai Mining)
Henan Province, PRCCV 5300 – 6800 kcal/kg
(Banpu 40%)
China coal operations
Coal price(RMB/t)
Production(Mt)
1Q07
416
0.33
1Q08
Coal price(RMB/t)
Production(Mt)
295
0.55
494
0.35
450
0.58
4Q07
446
0.38
426
1.26
2Q08F
578
0.35
575
1.12
Completed minor capacity increased to 1.5Mtpa;
Further expansion to 2Mtpa is under consideration
Relocation of longwallhas briefly interrupted
1Q08 production
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Total revenue
Availability Payment (AP)
Energy Payment (EP)
Dispatch (%)
Operating cost
EBIT
EBITDA
Power Thailand : BLCP
1Q/2008
5,339
2,899
2,231
95%
2,422
2,366
2,846
Q-Q
39%
56%
25%
7%
142%
88%
Units: Bt. Million(100% basis)
Equity income 1Q08
Bt 1,425 m** Based on Banpu’s 50% interest;
including FX gain Bt504million
4Q/2007
3,853
1,856
1,789
70%
2,267
979
1,513
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Power China : BPIC
* Unaudited figures
** Including transportation
Sales* (USD m)
EBITDA (USD m)
Utilization (Hours)
Power tariff (RMB/kwh)
Coal price**(RMB/t)
(100% basis)
LuannanHebei Province, PRCPower 100MW; Steam 128tph(Banpu 100% )
ZhengdingHebei Province, PRCPower 48MW;Steam 180tph(100%)
1Q08
Start Unit#1 FGD project
4Q07
1Q07
Second phase (hot water) completed; expansion for
other lines have commenced
ZoupingShandong Province, PRCPower 100MW;Steam 490tph(70%)
Third phase (25MW) Expansion commercial
operation in Jan 08
10.8 3.3 1,763 0.42 51810.0 1.7 1,712 0.42 489
4Q07 7.6 2.2 2,343 0.34 414
1Q07 8.1 1.7 1,681 0.32 478
4Q07 14.9 2.7 2,551 0.32 522
9.1 4.0 1,669 0.42 419
1Q07 6.5 2.2 2,110 0.34 376
1Q08 8.4 2.5 2,230 0.34 459
1Q08 14.1 -2.1 1,922 0.32 629
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4. Commercial review
Rawi CorsiriChief Operating Officer
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102030405060708090
100110120130140
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
e
BJI
Weighted avg
Indominco
ASP 1q08 : $49.39 / tonne
ASP 2008e : $65 / tonne
US$/Tonne BJI* May 16, 2008
$131.90
Chinese winter cuts exportS. Africa electricity cutdisrupts mining operation
Australia flooding cuts export
Average Selling Prices (ASP)
Note: *Barlow Jonker Index (BJI) based on CV 6,700 kcal/kg GAD from Australia to JapanSource: Barlow Jonker
China resumes export
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9%
9%
81%
1%
Approx. 20 MT
Contracted & Priced
Contracted & Unpriced
Uncontracted
Very strong global import demand through 2008 and 2009
Thai and Indonesian low CV grades sold out
Gradually committing remaining high CV grades
EU contracts linked to API # 4
Japanese sales established premiums over Australian coals
Also, ‘quality company premiums’evident in Banpu prices relative to smaller Indonesia producers
Contracted & Indexed
Indicative 2008 coal sales
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Coal sales by geographic destination
INDIA
0.1 Mt
ITALY
OTHERS*
1.2Mt
0.2 Mt
0.3 Mt
THAILAND
CHINA
0.5 Mt
0.8 MtPHILIPPINES0.2 Mt
0.4 MtINDONESIA
JAPAN
0.9 Mt
TAIWAN
0.5 Mt
0.6 Mt
S.KOREA
*Includes small, non-regular purchasers
Mid-to-High CV
Low-to-Mid CV
Total coal sales volume: 4.54Mt in 1Q08
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5. Financial review
Somruedee SomphongChief Financial Officer
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Sales revenues : coal and power
Note : Revenues from other businesses (e.g. industrial minerals) are not included
240
Units: Bt. million
1Q07 Indominco JorongTrubaindo Coal Thailand
4Q07
(606) 11 (54)(38)
1Q08
6,667
8,612
BPIC
(88)
Sales volume decreased 0.5mt due to seasonal variation
9,209
-6%Q on Q
+29%Y on Y
Inter Trade
(61)
Kitadin
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189
10
637
1,561
3,353
197
61
649
1,737
5,3634,756
1,977
659
143Thai mines
Kitadin-Embalut
Jorong
Trubaindo
Indominco
Bt. million GPM Sales revenue
Thai mines
Jorong
Trubaindo
Kitadin-Embalut
Indominco36%37%
40%
33%
44%
14%
-1%3%16%
43%
35%
29%
1Q08
4Q07
1Q07
Avg. gross margin for coal in 1Q08 at 37%
34%39%
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Consolidated EBITDA
Units: Bt. million
(21) +16 (170)
+870
Gross profit
SG&A Equity Otherincomes
D&Acoal
4Q07 1Q08
+148
1,876
2,708
2,921
1Q07
Coal sales revenue decreased 6% QoQ
+3
Royaltyincomes
EBITDA*Power
+53
Higher Equity income from
BLCP
Coal Bt1,460m
Power Bt1,461m+147% Q on Q-4% Y on Y
+14% Q on Q+24% Y on Y
Otherexpenses
+147
+8%Y on Y+56%Q on Q
* Include FX
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Consolidated net profit
Units: Bt. million
EBIT4Q07
2,074
1Q07 1Q08FXFinancial charges
Non-recurring
1,194
1,983
+74%Y on Y
OperatingTax
+5%Q on Q
Net ProfitPOWER
Coal Bt818m
Power Bt1,256m+587% Q on Q+3% Y on Y
-55% Q on Q
+28 (24) (16) +258(1,256) +1,073
Minority
+27
Higher Equity income from
BLCP
Gain on Investment in subsidiaries in 4Q07
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Organic capital expenditure plans 2008
35
15
13.5
12.5
40
116
Bontang port expansion
Bharinto Bontangpower plant
IndomincoEast Block
Improvement initiatives
Total 2008
Indominco underground
Indominco electrification
Trubaindo mobile crusher, wash plant
Tandung Mayang fleet expansion
The capital expenditure figures shown above do not include estimates for maintenance or sustaining capital expenditure.
Units: USD million
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0.130.14
0.66
0.34
0.22
2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08
91
Balance sheet
Debt structureNet D/E (Times)
Net gearing (%)
As end of March 2008
18%
25%
40%
Floating 48% Fixed 52%
12% 11%
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Question & Answer
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Operating profit
Units: Bt. million
Sales revenues – Power (BPIC) 1,076Cost of sales (5,789)Gross profit* 2,848 -5% 15%
GPM 33%
1Q08 QoQ % YoY %
8,637 -6% 29%Sales revenues – Coal
Total sales revenues*
7,536 -6% 31%
Gross profit - Coal 2,763 -1% 26%Gross profit – Power (BPIC) 74
-8% 17%
-62% -72%
917(4,220)2,480
37%
1Q07
6,7005,750
2,197260
1,164(6,198)2,987
33%
4Q07
9,1857,981
2,783193
Note: * Including other business
GPM – Power (BPIC)GPM - Coal
7%37%
28%38%
17%35%
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3232
Operating profit
Units: Bt. million
Gross profit 2,848 2,480 -5% 15%GPM 33% 37%SG&A (989) (826)Royalty (880) (671)
Dividend income – Coal & Power - -Other income 146 58
EBIT 2,559 2,268 67% 13%
EBITDA 2,921 2,708 56% -7%
1Q08 1Q07 QoQ % YoY %
EBIT - Coal 1,161 815 2% 42%EBIT - Power 1,398 1,454
Income from associates 1,535 1,306
250% -4%
EBITDA - Coal 1,460 1,181 14% 24%EBITDA - Power 1,462 1,527 147% -4%
Other expenses - Operations (101) (79)
2,98733%
(1,029)(884)
-92
1,532
1,876
1,133399
614
1,284592
(248)
4Q07
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33
Units: Bt. million
EBITInterest expenses (225)Financial expenses (38)Income tax (core business) (326)Minorities (126)Net profit before extra items 1,843Non-recurring items* 107Income tax (non-core business) -Net profit before FX 1,950 47%FX translations 124Net profit 2,074 74%EPS (Bt/share) 7.63
Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses
YoY %1Q08
Net profit
11%
(273)(46)
(263)(22)
1,664(96)
(237)1,330(137)1,1944.39
-8%
5%
107%
2,559 2,268 67% 13%
(282)(34)
(173)(154)890
1,362(135)2,117(134)1,9837.30
1,532
1Q07 QoQ %4Q07