1IDirect_MonthlySectoral

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

July 29, 2015Monthly Technical

Midcap juggernaut to roll on amid broader consolidation… Equity benchmarks surged to a three-month high of 28578, 8654 (Sensex, Nifty, respectively) in July 2015 before surrendering the gains to end the month on a flat note. Profit bookings after the steady rise of nearly 9% in June-July, a stalemate in the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament and renewed weakness in Chinese equity markets weighed on sentiments towards the end of the month. What we expect:

We believe the recent knee jerk reaction from the July highs has worked in favour of the markets by helping to shed the overbought conditions developed after the 9% rise from June 2015 bottom of 26307, 7940. We do not expect the benchmarks to breach the support threshold placed around 27200, 8200 region. Therefore, the current dip provides a fresh entry opportunity for participants who missed the initial leg of the rally. We believe the markets will sail through the current volatility and form a higher bottom in the vicinity of 27200, 8200. The consolidation above the support threshold in the coming month will lay the foundation for a gradual up move towards 29000, 8850 over the next few months. Reversal from four month correction already in place

The benchmarks have already signalled a reversal from the four month corrective phase (March to June) as the rally from the June 2015 bottom of 26307 to July 2015 high of 28578 is the largest in magnitude in four months. In the process, the index also reversed the sequence of lower peaks and troughs by violating the upper barrier of the falling channel in place since March 2015. The fact that the markets factored in a slew of negativity surrounding the Greek referendum, Chinese equity meltdown and weak monsoon forecast domestically while overcoming the overhead resistance adds to the significance of this bullish turnaround. Broader markets: True barometer of sentiment

The true sense of a bullish turnaround in sentiment is reflected in the performance of broader market indices, which represent a larger universe of stocks. The June-July up move saw the benchmarks conclude a four month corrective phase and begin a fresh up trend. However, in the meanwhile, the BSE midcap index has gone all guns blazing to hit a new life-time high. The broader market index surging to fresh life-time highs way ahead of the benchmarks is a positive sign highlighting the extent of buoyant market sentiment and confirms that the current rally has more legs. In the present scenario, with a confirmed reversal from a four month corrective phase already in place, we believe the benchmarks will respect the short-term support area of 27200, 8200 and resume the rising trajectory. We expect the current up move to lead the benchmarks towards the April 2015 high at 29094, 8844 levels over the next few months. The confluence of the 80% retracement of the entire correction from March to June 2015 placed around 29000, 8850 levels makes this a key hurdle from a short-term perspective.

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Indices Snapshot

% from 3-month 12-monthIndices 200 EMA % chg % chgSensex 27563 0.8 2.0 6.4CNX Nifty 8375 1.4 2.4 8.5CNX Mid Cap 13457 7.5 6.0 24.2CNX Small Cap 5577 4.9 2.1 10.2CNX IT 11470 1.7 4.3 11.3BSE Auto 18719 2.3 2.1 20.8CNX Pharma 11978 3.5 -0.7 28.2CNX FMCG 19976 0.4 2.4 6.4BSE Banking 21044 3.0 0.1 20.4BSE Oil & Gas 9948 0.9 8.1 -7.5BSE Metal 8548 -14.6 -12.8 -34.6BSE Capital Goods 17768 7.5 7.6 21.3BSE Power 2055 -1.0 -1.9 -3.7BSE Realty 1291 -17.6 -17.9 -31.8BSE PSU 7588 -2.1 0.3 -5.3* Closing Price of July 29, 2015

Close

Source: BSE India, NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

* BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the CNX IT, pharma, FMCG, mid-cap and small cap indices for reference

Top picks for August 2015

• Punjab National Bank

• Bajaj Finserv

• JK Tyres & Industries

• NIIT Technologies

• Banco Products (I) * All stock recommendations have been initiated on i-click to gain prior to releasing of report. Exact timings mentioned at bottom of the rationale Research Analyst Dharmesh Shah [email protected] Nitin Kunte , CMT [email protected] Dipesh Dagha [email protected] Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]

Vinayak Parmar [email protected]


Short-term base shifts upwards to 27200, 8200 region

In rising markets, the support base tends to shift higher with every corresponding up move. After the trend reversal rally during June-July 2015, we believe the short-term base for the market has now shifted upwards to the 27200, 8200 region. We expect markets to form a higher bottom in the vicinity of 27200, 8200 being the confluence of the following key technical parameters:

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current rise from 26307 to 27948 is also placed around the 27174, 8200 region

The 52 week EMA is currently at 27084, 8170 The bullish gap area formed on June 19, 2015 is placed between

27202 and 27115, 8195 and 8174 levels The panic low formed on June 29, 2015 is placed at 27209, 8195

levels. The index had factored in the negatives like Chinese market meltdown and Greek referendum while holding this level

Momentum oscillators

Among oscillator, the weekly stochastic (5/3/3) had reached a highly overbought state with reading of 87 during the June-July rally. The current breather on the price front has facilitated in working off the overbought conditions, thereby, creating room for a further up move over the coming months.

BSE Sensex CMP- 27563

Exhibit 1: BSE Sensex – Weekly Candlestick Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

The weekly stochastic had hit highly overbought reading of 91 after the June-July rally. The cool off on price front has enabled the oscillator to shed the overstretched condition which is a healthy sign

Confluence of supports placed around 27200 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Jun-

Jul rally @ 27174 Bullish gap @ 27202-27115 Previous swing low @ 27209

30024

52 week EMA

29094

Sequence of lower peaks and troughs breached, signalling end of corrective phase and resumption of uptrend


Bank Nifty (18332) Consolidation above 18000 to lay foundation for next up move…

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Generic Futures– Weekly Bar Chart


• The Bank Nifty surged to its four month high of 19280 towards mid-July 2015 precisely in line with our expectation as highlighted in the previous edition of this report. The ensuing profit booking leg after five consecutive weekly gains saw the index pare some of the gains towards last week of the month

• The price action formed a small bull candle,

which carries a higher high higher low on monthly time frame for the first time since January 2015 indicating resumption of positive momentum after the six month corrective phase

• After rallying over 12% from the June 2015

bottom of 17138, momentum oscillators have reached an overbought state. We believe the current breather will make the market healthier and create room for further upsides over the coming months. We expect the current profit booking led selling pressure to get absorbed above the 18000 mark and lead to a higher bottom formation. Therefore, the current breather provides a fresh buying opportunity to ride the ongoing up move towards 20000 over the coming months

• We expect the Bank Nifty to undergo a short-

term consolidation while holding the key support of 18000 in the coming month, which would lay the foundation for the gradual up move towards 20000 over the next few months. The 80% retracement of the March-June decline from 20740 to 17138 is around 20000. This also coincides with the overhead trend line joining the highs of January 2015 (20934) and March 20740) placed around 20000 levels

• The key immediate support for the index is

pegged around 18000, which is the confluence of following:

o The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the

entire up move from June 2015 bottom of current rise from 17138 to 19280 is placed at 18000

o The value of rising 200 day EMA is currently placed at 17870 levels

• Among oscillators, the weekly stochastic

surged to highly overbought reading of 91 during the recent up move. The cool-off on the price front will help ease off the overstretched conditions on the oscillator and create room for further upsides over the short-term

The breather towards 18000 region will help shed the overstretched conditions and will create room for further upsides in the coming month

The weekly stochastic scaled to highly overbought reading of 91during recent up move leading to the current breather on price front

20934

61.8% of June-July rally @ 18000 and 200 day EMA @17870 levels

52 week EMA


BSE sectoral merry-go-round

In this section, we focus on the relative performance of the BSE sectoral indices. The adjacent scatter chart highlights the relative performance of the BSE’s 11 major sectors relative to the Sensex with the y-axis plotting the relative price momentum over the past 12 months and the x-axis plotting the relative price. The chart is then subdivided into four quadrants.

Leadership quadrant: Top right is “Leadership” quadrant, which represents a sector that has strengthened in relative price and momentum vis-à-vis the Sensex.

Weakening quadrant: Bottom right is the “Weakening” quadrant where a sector’s relative price has started to deteriorate and momentum has started to slow.

Lagging quadrant: Bottom left is the “Lagging” quadrant where the sector’s relative price has become negative with momentum suggesting underperformance vis-à-vis the benchmark.

Improving quadrant: Top left is the “Improving” quadrant where a sector’s relative price trend has started to rise with momentum.

In summary, if a sector appears in the top right quadrant, it indicates the sector is trending higher and outperforming the benchmarks. If a sector appears on the bottom left it indicates it is trending lower. Sectors appearing on the bottom right indicate they are underperforming the benchmark while if they appear in the top left it suggests an improving price momentum.

Note: BSE has replaced IT, health care, FMCG, midcap and small cap indices with new ones. Due to lack of historical data, we have considered the NSE IT, pharma and FMCG indices for reference Exhibit 3: BSE sectoral indices relative performance


Sector rotation monitor

What each quadrant indicates

Sectors in the top right quadrant indicate strong trending sectors

• Oil is well: The BSE Oil & Gas index continued to build strength on relative price and momentum front and is on the verge of entering the Leadership quadrant on the sector rotation matrix which highlights continued build-up of strength in this space

• BSE IT index has seen a spurt in relative price and momentum from the lagging quadrant, which may be an early sign of maturity of the ongoing consolidation. This space should be closed watched in the coming months for further confirmation of potential turnaround

• The BSE capital goods index continues to

exhibit strength and has held its ground in the Leading quadrant highlighting the relative outperformance in turbulent markets

• The banking and auto indices have lost

further ground after slipping into the weakening quadrant indicating further consolidation and relative underperformance in the near term

• The BSE health care index has lost further

ground in the weakening quadrant implying further underperformance in relative terms in coming months

• BSE realty remains the weakest link in the

sectoral rotation matrix as it has lost further ground in the Lagging quadrant. BSE metal index has also seen sharp erosion of momentum and is reversing from the improving quadrant suggesting further underperformance in coming months


Sectoral performance – Relative to benchmarks In order to closely gauge the underlying strength in the respective sectors vis-à-vis the benchmark, we analyse the Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. As the name suggests, it is a comparative measure of strength vis-à-vis a benchmark or a sector. While the RSC line is rising, the sector is outperforming the general market, i.e. it is either rising faster than the benchmark in an up trending market or going down less, in a down trending market or even rising. While the RSC line is falling, the sector is underperforming the broad equity market. If the market is going up, the sector is going up less or may be even going down. If the market is going down when the RSC line is falling, the sector is going down more than the market. A flat RSC line indicates in line market performance going up or down by the same magnitude. The purpose of this exercise is to identify those sectors that are outperforming and avoid the sectors that are underperforming.

BSE Auto Index BSE Auto Index is seen at the cusp of a break out from down trending channel. We expect the break out to pan out over the short-term looking at constituent charts and such breakout would lead to relative out performance for the sector

Exhibit 4: BSE Auto Index – Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 5: BSE Auto Index vs. Sensex – Relative Comparison


Relative Strength Comparative: Evaluating

the underlying strength

RSC line is placed at key rising trend line. We expect sector to once out performance over next few months

BSE Auto index is at the cusp of breaking past down trending channel.

BSE Auto Index and relative to Sensex

Auto index is expected to resume its out performance over next few months.

Weekly RSI is seen holding its bull market support threshold of 40-45

20386

Key support marked by - 52-week EMA - December 2014 lows - Lower band of channel

17907


NSE Pharma Index The Pharma index extended losses in July after breaching its key trend line on RSC charts. Going forward, the index is expected to continue a consolidation and resultant under performance on relative terms

Exhibit 6: NSE Pharma Index Weekly Bar chart


Exhibit 7: NSE Pharma Index vs. Nifty – Relative Comparison


BSE Capital Goods Index The sector took a breather in July 2015 after a strong rally. However, considering overall price structure, we expect capital goods sector to remain out performer from medium term perspective

Exhibit 8: BSE Capital goods Index Weekly Bar chart


Exhibit 9: BSE Capital goods v Sensex – Relative Comparison


Underperformance likely led by Tier 1 stocks like Lupin and Sun Pharma.

Pharma reacted sharply lower in July and expected to remain under corrective phase towards 11000 mark

Breach of key trend line points towards extended underperformance, going forward

NSE Pharma Index and relative to Nifty

52-week EMA

10356 Key support @ 11000 -80% @ 11088 -52-week EMA

14020

BSE Capital Goods Index and relative to Sensex

Capital goods index is expected to resolve higher after a brief pause and remain out performer on

relative terms

The RSC line seen trending higher in a channelled manner indicating medium term out performance

CG index retraced back to its life high and after a pause expected to head for new life highs

Weekly RSI has approached its historical bull market support reading of 50

18796

34-week EMA

Support @ 16000


BSE Oil&Gas Index The Oil & gas space remains divided. Stock specific out performance by Reliance, OMC’s is expected to continue while Oil producers are expected to continue lagging effect

Exhibit 10: BSE Oil&Gas Index Monthly Bar Chart


Exhibit 11: BSE Oil&Gas Index v Sensex – Relative Comparison


NSE IT Index The IT index is expected to attract buying support and head higher from medium term perspective after elongated consolidation. Select large caps along with mid cap names like NIIT Tech, Tata Elxsi are favoured

Exhibit 12: NSE IT Index Weekly Bar Chart


Exhibit 13: NSE IT Index v Nifty – Relative Comparison


Oil&gas space is expected to witness stock specific action. OMC’s remain favoured within

space followed by Reliance industries

Consolidation continues but large caps like Infosys and TCS remain favoured from medium term

perspective

The index is seen bouncing off the long term trend line support and expected to resolve higher in the short term

On relative terms, index remains an under performer over medium term, however bounce in RSC line depicts a revival in the short term

The RSC line is seen bouncing off long term trend line depicting relative out performance returning to space

IT index is expected to rally towards 12500 in the short term after bouncing off 11000 mark

BSE Oil&Gas Index and relative to Sensex

52-week EMA

Weekly RSI is seen bouncing off key support near displacement of 40-50 zone

NSE IT Index and relative to Nifty


Stock Picks

Punjab National Bank (PUNBAN) Buying Range: 138.00 - 141.50 Target: 160.00 Stop loss: 128.00

Exhibit 14: PNB – Weekly Bar Chart


Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) Buying Range: 1700.00 - 1730.00 Target: 1970.00 Stop loss: 1590.00

Exhibit 15: Bajaj Finserv – Weekly Bar Chart


975

38.2% @ 1370

Weekly RSI seen trending up supporting overall bullish stance

• The share price is seen taking breather after a sharp up move and offers fresh entry opportunity to ride the larger uptrend

• The last major up move from | 975-1574 (600 points) was retraced by only 38.2% while taking equal amount taken by the rally. Such a price/time behaviour highlight robust price structure amid strong appetite to own the stock. The recent breakout above the three month consolidation pattern (above | 1574) has signalled continuation of the bullish momentum over the medium term

• We expect the stock to resume its rising trajectory from hereon and rally towards | 1970 over the coming months being price equality of current up move with preceding rally (1574-975=600 points) as projected from the consolidation lows of | 1370

Recommendation has been initiated on i-click to gain at 10:18 on July 28, 2015

Parity with preceding up move @ 1970

52 Weeks EMA

Current up move is expected to extend towards 1970 after breaking out of 3 month consolidation

80

Double bottom @ 130

Weekly RSI seen bottoming out near support of 40-45 range

52-week EMA @ 161

• The share price has formed a potential double bottom bullish reversal pattern at the major support area indicating a shift in momentum and offers god buying opportunity to ride the pullback rally towards | 160

• The identical bottoms formed at ~| 130 are placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2013-14 rally (80-230). Historically, the |130 level has acted as a key value area for the stock. Formation of bullish reversal pattern at this region highlights strong buying support ahead of the impending reversal

• We believe the stock has concluded a healthy corrective phase and a sharp bounce off | 130 post quarterly results on Tuesday sets the tone for a pullback rally towards | 160 that is the value of 52-week EMA and May 2015 highs


230

1574


JK Tyre & Industries (JKIND) Buying Range: ` 103.00 – 106.50 Target: ` 130.00 Stop loss: ` 93.00 Exhibit 16: JK Tyre & Industries – Monthly Candlestick Chart


NIIT Technologies (NIITEC) Buying Range: ` 458.00 –471.00 Target: ` 555.00 Stop loss: ` 425.00 Exhibit 17: NIIT Technologies – Weekly Bar Chart


• The share price of JK Tyre has concluded a healthy corrective phase after taking support at its 21 months EMA at 83 levels. The pullback towards the long term average after a span of over a year triggered value buying and resulted in the formation of an Engulfing line bull candlestick pattern on the monthly charts which implies resumption of the upward momentum

• The overall robust price structure can be

highlighted from the fact that the stock consumed seven months to retracing 78.6% of the preceding four month rally from | 56 to | 163. Such price/time behaviour indicates underlying strength in the trend

• We expect the stock to retrace its current

decline (| 163 to | 78) by minimum 61.8% over the coming months, which projects upsides towards | 130. This also coincides with the April 2015 high of placed at |130 levels


The stock has formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern near the 21 months EMA signalling a reversal of trend and offers fresh entry opportunity

Price rise with rise in volume where as corrective decline witness lower volume signalling larger participation in up trend

163

Monthly MACD is taking support at its signal line

21 Months EMA53

61.8% at 130

• The strong up move in July 2015 has steered the stock past the neckline of major Rounding pattern comprising the entire price movement since March 2014 till date. The resolution past the long term rounding bottom panning out over more than 17 months indicates a structural turnaround and opens up further higher avenues for the stock, going forward

• The base of the rounding pattern is placed at the confluence of the 52 weeks EMA and 61.8% retracement of the previous up move from | 228 to | 464 signalling positive price structure. Volume behaviour also supports the overall bullish price structure as high volumes of more than double of the 50 weeks average volume of (25 lakh share per week) at the breakout area indicate larger participation in the direction of the primary trend

• We expect the stock to rally towards | 555 levels in the coming months that is also the price equality with the previous up move from | 228 to | 464 as projected from the recent trough of | 319 levels


The breakout above major Rounding pattern comprising the price movement of over 17 months signals a structural turnaround and opens further higher avenues

Price parity with previous up move @ 555

Monthly MACD is moving above signal line and trigger line

464

Rising volumes at breakout level highlights a firm bull trend

228

319


Banco Products (BANPRO) Buying Range: ` 112.00 – 116.00 Target: ` 145.00 Stop loss: ` 102.00 Exhibit 18: Banco Products – Weekly Candlestick Chart


Strategy Follow up – June 2015 Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment25-May Bajaj Finserv Cash Buy 1470.00 1740.00 1350.00 20.00 Target achieved27-May Whirlpool Cash Buy 730.00 830.00 680.00 2.50 Squared off at 74922-Jun Union Bank of India Cash Buy 146.00 175.00 133.00 17.00 Booked profit at 17122-Jun BEML Cash Buy 1255.00 1465.00 1145.00 16.00 Target achieved19-Jun Welspun India Cash Buy 570.00 650.00 645.00 13.00 Target achieved23-Jun Bosch Cash Buy 21800.00 24450.00 20200.00 9.00 Booked profit at 2368019-Jun M&M Cash Buy 1258.00 1475.00 1145.00 8.00 Booked 50% profit at 135523-Jun Larsen & Toubro Cash Buy 1740.00 1980.00 1630.00 7.00 Booked 50% profit at 1857

• The corrective decline off the November 2014 life-time high of | 183 halted at the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the major 2013-14 rally (| 34 to | 183) at | 92. The stock witnessed a basing formation for over a month at the key retracement support, which highlighted accumulation by strong hands

• The firm rebound from the support level has propelled the stock above its 52 week EMA and is now on the verge of breaking out above the major overhead trend line joining the highs of November 2014 and April 2015 signalling an end of the secondary corrective phase and resumption of the primary uptrend

• Among oscillator, the 14 week RSI signalled a positive turnaround in sentiment well ahead of the breakout on the price front as it exhibited a positive divergence by forming a higher low while price was still forming a lower low indicating waning downward momentum ahead of the impending reversal

• We expect the stock to ride the positive momentum and head towards its April 2015 high of | 147 in the coming months. The confluence of 61.8% retracement of the November to June correction (| 183 to | 89) at | 147 makes this the next crucial barrier over the short-term


Stock is on the verge of breakout above the key overhead trend line in place since Nov’14

Steady pick-up in volumes along with price rise highlights larger participation in the direction of the trend

183

34

61.8% retracement of 2013-2014 rally @ 92

Positive divergence on weekly RSI signals waning downward momentum ahead of impending reversal


Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar Date EventUS29-Jul FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)29-Jul FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)30-Jul Revisions: U.S. GDP30-Jul GDP Annualized QoQ31-Jul Employment Cost Index31-Jul ISM Milwaukee3-Aug Markit US Manufacturing PMI3-Aug Construction Spending MoM4-Aug Factory Orders Ex Trans5-Aug Markit US Composite PMI5-Aug Markit US Services PMI6-Aug Challenger Job Cuts YoY6-Aug Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims7-Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls7-Aug Two-Month Payroll Net Revision10-Aug MBA Mortgage Foreclosures11-Aug Wholesale Inventories MoM12-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications13-Aug Retail Sales Advance MoM13-Aug Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims14-Aug Industrial Production MoM18-Aug Net Long-term TIC Flows19-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications19-Aug U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July 28-29 FOMC Meeting20-Aug Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims20-Aug Existing Home Sales MoM24-Aug Markit US Manufacturing PMI25-Aug Consumer Confidence Index26-Aug Markit US Composite PMI27-Aug GDP Annualized QoQ27-Aug Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims28-Aug PCE Deflator MoM28-Aug U. of Mich. Sentiment28-Aug U. of Mich. Current Conditions31-Aug Chicago Purchasing Manager31-Aug Dallas Fed Manf. ActivityIndia31-Jul Fiscal Deficit INR Crore3-Aug Nikkei India PMI Mfg4-Aug RBI Cash Reserve Ratio4-Aug RBI Repurchase Rate5-Aug Nikkei India PMI Services10-Aug Exports/Imports YoY12-Aug CPI/Industrial Production YoY14-Aug Wholesale Prices YoY25-Aug Eight Infrastructure Industries31-Aug Fiscal Deficit INR Crore31-Aug GDP YoY


NOTES:

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis.

• The recommendations are valid for three to six months and in case we intend to carry forward the

position, it will be communicated through separate mail. Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to

allocate equal amount to each recommendation

Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Allocations Return Objective Products Product wise

allocation Max allocation

in 1 stock Number of Calls

Frontline Stocks Mid-cap stocks Duration

Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.50-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 p.m 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technical 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash in Hand 10% - - - - -

100%


Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Technical & Derivative Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]


Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. 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This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

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