SCIENCEscience newseries. volumelxxi january-june, 1930 newyork thescience press 1930
1Icelandic System Dynamics Center. Industrial Engineering ... · a) BAU 1930-2230 Years H e l i u...
Transcript of 1Icelandic System Dynamics Center. Industrial Engineering ... · a) BAU 1930-2230 Years H e l i u...
1Icelandic System Dynamics Center. Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Hjarðarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland2Norwegian Inland University of Applied Sciences, Hamar
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Population
Wellbeing
land
areause
land
available
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Population
Wellbeing
economyEducation
land
areause
land
available
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R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economy
poverty
Education
land
areause
land
available
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R2
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economy
recycling
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
material
demand
extraction
land
areause
land
available
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R3
R2
R5
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
economy
recycling
GDP
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
material
demand
material
price
extraction
land
areause
land
available
R7
R4
R3
R2
R5
R1
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Population
Wellbeing
Consumption
economy
recycling
GDP
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
material
demand
material
price
extraction
land
areause
land
available
R7
R4
R3
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R5
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Population
Wellbeing
Consumption
economy
recycling
GDP
poverty
metalsandmaterial
resourcesonmarketEducation
industrial
production
Health
energyuse
energy
production
available
energy
material
demand
material
price
extraction
URR
land
areause
climate
change
land
available
pollution
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R4
B3
R3
R2
R5
R1
B8
B7
B1
B5
B2
B4
B6
R6
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Supply Market delivery
modifieddemand
Demand
Profit
Cost Price
GDP
B1
B2
R2
R1
B3
B4
a)BAU1930-2230
Years
Helium,tonperyear
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080 2110 2140 2170 2200 2230
1 23
4
5 6
1
2
3
4
56
12
3
4
56
12
3 4
56
BAUDemand1 BAUModified2 BAUProduction3
BAUSupply4 BAURecycling5 BAUReservesales6
b)BAU1930-2015comparedtodata
Years
Helium,tonperyear
0
7.500
15.000
22.500
30.000
37.500
45.000
52.500
60.000
1930 1939 1947 1956 1964 1973 1981 1990 1998 2007 20151 2 3 4 5 6 7
12 3 4
5 6
7
1 2
3
4
5 6
7
1 2
3
4
56
7
BAUDemand1 BAUModified2 BAUProduction3
BAUSupply4 BAURecycling5 BAUReservesales6
Observedproduction7
Nisystemicsupply
Years
Milliontonperyear
0
3
6
9
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Niextraction
Years
Milliontonperyear
0
1,4
2,8
4,2
5,6
7
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 22501 2 3 4 5 1
2
3
4
5
1
2 3
4
5 1
2
3 4 5
50%Nidemand1 75%Nidemand2
BaseRun3 125%Nidemand4
150%Nidemand5
Nirecyclingdegree
Years
Nisystemicrecyclingdegree
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 22501 2
3 4 5
12
3
4
5
1
23
4
5
1 23
4
5
50%Nidemand1 75%Nidemand2
BaseRun3 125%Nidemand4
150%Nidemand5
Nickelmarketprice
Years
Nickel,$perton
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Nimarketsupply
Years
Milliontonperyear
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Niallresources
Years
Millionton
0
140
280
420
560
700
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
50%Nidemand 75%Nidemand
BaseRun 125%Nidemand
150%Nidemand
Grasp the underlying structure of the elements included in the model.
Reconstructs history (1850-2015) for the resources included in the model reasonably well.
The relationship between extraction, supply, recycling and the time of population maximum plays a vital role in how the supply situation will develop and to evaluate risk for scarcity.