1.crustal deformation earthquakes
description
Transcript of 1.crustal deformation earthquakes
Using Crustal Deformation
measurements to gauge future earthquakes
Cascadia Hazards Institute
Dept. of Geological Sciences
Central Washington University
www.cascadiahazards.org
Timothy I. Melbourne
Crustal Deformation & Earthquakes1. Cascadia Subduction Zone
2. Measuring how Earth’s surface deforms (crustal deformation)
3. A lesson from Japan
4. Computer simulation of a Magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake
Seattle (4m)
Vancouver (3m)
Rex FlakeAndrew MinerMarcelo SantillanCraig ScrivnerWalter Szeliga
Aaron MayfieldRodger WilsonAna AguiarJames ChapmanIvan Rabak
Megan KostickRosie StahlKyle KinkadeWendy StockwellSergio Abundiz
CascadiaMag-9
earthquake in themaking
Test 1: comparison with current interseismic deformation:
A rough forecast of future slip after full recurrence interval
GPS stations with ~10 years of measurements
Data from Leonard et al, 2004
ETS-delineated coupling model: Replicates gross distribution of paleoseismic subsidence
GPS stations with ~10 years of measurements
Japan’s GEONET GPS ARRAY (1995)
March 11 M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake
2011 Tohoku-Oki 3d GPS displacements (3x speed)
WA coastal communities move ~75’ and subside ~10’