196119711981199120012011 IFS-(Var)EPS re-forecasts Avaialbility of VarEPS Reorecasts (% Members,...
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Transcript of 196119711981199120012011 IFS-(Var)EPS re-forecasts Avaialbility of VarEPS Reorecasts (% Members,...
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1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
IFS-(Var)EPS re-forecasts
Avaialbility of VarEPS Reorecasts (% Members, started once every Week)
Day0 Day+5 Day+10 Day+30 Day+90
IFS-(Var)EPS
Medium-to-extended range forecast of available water resources with PREVAHEstimation of deviation from climatological mean (focus on water scarcity and low-flows)
Observed climatology
Towards Seasonal Forecasts
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Skill of ECMWF VarEPS monthly reforecasts
Kein Skill nach 10 TagenWie verifizieren (mehr)tägliche Abflussprognosen?
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runo
ff
lead-time
threshold severity
duration
• duration = length of longest forecast period below MMR• severity = cumulative runoff deficit w.r.t. MMR• Magnitude= severity/duration
• Calculated for each monthly forecast (weekly issued, 1991-2008), 5 members and according observations• Results are ensemble forecasts of indices & verification
Drought Indices
Mean monthly runoff
MMR
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Low-Flow Duration
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Low-Flow Severity
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Low-Flow Magnitude