19/20 Enrollment Analysis - BoardDocs, a Diligent Brand · 2020. 9. 10. · Other Items Enrollment...

VISUALIZING SUCCESS

Planning for the Future19/20 Enrollment Analysis

Presented September 9, 2020

RSP and STR Data as of 9/8/2020 (11:30AM)

◼ Introduction◼ Enrollment and Projections (Part One)

❑ Maps: Planning Areas and Attendance Areas❑ Building Projections

◼ Task Force Concepts (Part Two)

❑ Task Force Concept 1❑ Task Force Concept 2❑ Task Force Concept 3❑ Task Force Concept 4

◼ Concepts Updated(Part Three)

❑ Introduction to Concept Updates❑ Updated Concept 4❑ Concept 5❑ Concept 5A

◼ Moving Forward (Part Four)

❑ Next Steps

DISCUSSION POINTS

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❑ Founded in 2003

❑ Professional educational planning firm

❑ Expertise in multiple disciplines

❑ Over 20 Years of planning experience

❑ Over 80 years of education experience

❑ Over 20 years of GIS experience

❑ Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North

Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin

❑ Projection accuracy of 97% or greater

Clay GuthmillerEducation Planner

Jay HarrisEducation Planner, Ed.D.

David StoakesEducation Planner, Ed.D.

Dave WilkersonEducation Planner, Ph.D.

Tyler LinkGIS Analyst, GISP

Brandon SylvesterGIS Analyst, GISP Candidate

Robert SchwarzCEO, AICP, REFP, ALEP, CEFP

Educators

Planning

GIS Analyst

Who We Are

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Our Clients

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ExpectationsBelow are some key points to think about as you examine how the analysis looked at creating a planning tool for making decisions:

❑ Project timeline a result of ensuring student data could represent as close as possible the Official Count with attributes that would allow RSP to forecast enrollment at a parcel level geography

❑ The findings were not focused on supporting or contradicting any past internal or outsourced studies – the analysis is based on data, data, and more data

❑ The study factored in many different data sets to provide data driven analysis that is the foundation to the RSP Statistical Forecast Model (SFM)

❑ Enrollment change in the community is influenced by but not limited to the birth rate, demographics, types of development and/or housing affordability

❑ Other items such as the closing of St. Colette Catholic school or economic changes which influence more students to choose CCSD 15 are factored into the analysis, but must be monitored to ensure those assumptions result in good school planning decisions

❑ The study does not provide specific information about which site would be best suited for a new facility or for that matter should the district build any new facility – this analysis is one portion of how to make that decision

❑ This analysis is based on the same grade configuration and educational programming expectations the patrons have for each student

❑ Projecting enrollment is not a science – like life in general some assumptions happen that may lead to greater enrollment while others toward a smaller enrollment

❑ The goal of this study is to help the board, administration, and public understand how to make the best decision for the students at the classroom level

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Making It Happen

School District

❑ Community Consolidated School District 15

County, City & Others

❑ Cook County

❑ Cities of Palatine, Rolling Meadows, Hoffman

Estates, Arlington Heights, Inverness, and

Schaumburg

❑ United States Geological Survey

❑ Census Bureau/ Esri

❑ STR Partners LLC

Key Point:Accurate projections are a result of the local entities providing quality data.

Disclaimer: The data utilized in the analysis is the best available information each of the entities could provide at the time of the study.

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Part One:Enrollment &Projections

VISUALIZING SUCCESS

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Enrollment:❑ Enrollment Change – Overall enrollment decrease forecasted where enrollment will decrease to

about to about 10,800 students by 2024/25❑ Kindergarten enrollment will range from 1,000 to 1,100 students

❑ District decreases by just nearly 650 students (-5.3%) (Annual Range: -1.5% to -0.4% a year)

❑ Elementary decreases by about 350 students (-3.8%) (Annual Range: -1.6% to -0.2% a year)

❑ Junior High decreases by about 300 students (-10.4%) (Annual Range: -5.3% to +1.4% a year)

Capacity (Option 1 and Option 2 Reside and Attend Enrollment):❑ Elementary Reside Exceed Both Option 1 and 2 Capacity:

▪ Hunting Ridge, Lake Louise, Pleasant Hill, Virginia Lake, Willow Bend

❑ Elementary Attend Exceed Both Option 1 and 2 Capacity:▪ Hunting Ridge, Pleasant Hill

❑ Junior High Reside Exceed Both Option 1 and 2 Capacity: ▪ No school exceeds both capacities

❑ Junior High Attend Exceed Both Option 1 and 2 Capacity:▪ No school exceeds both capacities

❑ Capacity calculations may change to address what has been learned from COVID-19

Development:❑ There are limited locations for new residential development❑ The impact COVID-19 may have on the economy and housing starts must be monitored❑ Some infill development will happen in the older, core area, and potentially in places that once

were identified as nonresidential

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100,000 Foot Overview

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District Boundary❑ District Boundary (Purple Line)❑ Major Streets❑ Major water features & cultural features

❑ Municipality Limits▪ Arlington Heights (Yellow)▪ Hoffman Estates (Orange)▪ Inverness (Pink)▪ Palatine (Green)▪ Rolling Meadows (Brown)▪ Schaumburg (Blue)

Elementary Attendance Areas

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❑ District Boundary (Purple Line)❑ Major Streets❑ Major water features & cultural features❑ Attendance Areas (color shading)

Elementary Bilingual Overlay

Attendance Areas

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❑ District Boundary (Purple Line)❑ Major Streets❑ Major water features & cultural features❑ Attendance Areas (color shading)

❑ Areas in dark gray are areas that do not have a bilingual overlay

Junior High Attendance Areas

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❑ District Boundary (Purple Line)❑ Major Streets❑ Major water features & cultural features

❑ Attendance Areas▪ Carl Sandburg Junior High (Brown)▪ Plum Grove Junior High (Pink)▪ Walter R. Sundling Junior High (Orange)▪ Winston Campus (Grey)

DISCLAIMER: All past student data is exported from the district student database allowing the ability to do robust statistical analysis by student geography. The student database export will not always align perfectly with the Official Count (Statistical 99% or greater match by grade)

Enrollment Future Described:❑ Enrollment Change – Overall enrollment decrease forecasted to decrease to 10,801 students by 2024/25❑ The impact COVID-19 may have on the economy and housing starts must be monitored❑ District decreases by just nearly 650 students (-5.3%) (Annual Range: -1.5% to -0.4% a year)❑ Elementary decreases by about 350 students (-3.8%) (Annual Range: -1.6% to -0.2% a year)❑ Junior High decreases by about 300 students (-10.4%) (Annual Range: -5.3% to +1.4% a year)

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100,000 Foot Projection View

Source: CCSD 15 and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

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Projection Notes

Projections Clarification:

❑ Past Enrollment is shown three different ways:

1. Reside (Based on where a student Resides in relation to the attendance area – includes Open Enrollment)

2. Attend (Based on what school the student is attending Includes Bilingual Attendance area and Intra-student choice)

3. Reside/Attend (Subset of Reside to know how many of the Reside attend the school based on the attendance area they are assigned to)

❑ Projections are shown two ways:

1. Reside (Based on where a student Resides in relation to the attendance area: Includes Open Enrollment)

2. Attend (Based on where the student may likely attend – Includes Bilingual Attendance area and Intra-student choice)

❑ Capacity

▪ Provided by STR Partners LLC▪ Light pink shading is where the capacity exceeds the Option 1 Capacity▪ Dark pink shading is where the capacity exceeds both Option 1 and Option 2 Capacity▪ Option 1 is Full Day Kindergarten for elementary and between 67% and 78% Functional Capacity for Junior High▪ Option 2 is ½ Day Kindergarten for elementary and 100% Functional Capacity for Junior High▪ Capacity should be annually examined to ensure appropriate education space is available

❑ Other Items

▪ Enrollment Grade Configuration in Student Forecast Model (PK-6, 7-8)▪ Open enrollment trends are assumed to follow district policy and will continue like those trends during the

projection time frame▪ Integrated potential outcomes as a result of COVID-19 that relate to a slowdown in new housing starts and

challenges with the economy as it adapts to the “New Normal”▪ New attendance areas will not include Prekindergarten because the Prekindergarten student forecast is not

associated to planning areas like the K-8 enrollment


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Elementary Projections (Building)

See Notes on Page 58 to understand the information displayed in this chart

Capacity Notes:▪ Option 1 is Full Day Kindergarten for elementary and between 67% and 78% Functional Capacity for Junior High▪ Option 2 is ½ Day Kindergarten for elementary and 100% Functional Capacity for Junior High

School Student

Option 1 Option 2 Location 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

Central Road Elementary Reside/Attend 371 382 356 330

K to 6th 565 603 Reside 421 421 387 363 352 331 322 315 324

Attend 563 541 510 480 472 451 442 435 444

Frank C. Whiteley Elementary Reside/Attend 494 515 521 517

K to 6th 594 646 Reside 519 536 536 528 531 530 540 537 555

Attend 578 590 595 578 585 584 594 591 609

Gray M. Sanborn Elementary Reside/Attend 361 385 411 379

K to 6th 580 618 Reside 447 439 453 427 427 437 435 437 432

Attend 555 566 561 515 528 538 536 538 533

Hunting Ridge Elementary Reside/Attend 588 632 689 696

K to 6th 649 707 Reside 671 695 726 728 741 750 763 766 734

Attend 659 684 718 721 733 742 755 758 726

Jane Addams Elementary Reside/Attend 474 462 463 431

K to 6th 608 652 Reside 566 538 516 474 446 427 422 406 414

Attend 623 583 579 545 510 491 486 470 478

Kimball Hill Elementary Reside/Attend 393 393 389 383

K to 6th 601 627 Reside 455 444 427 412 415 412 414 418 421

Attend 594 567 535 509 520 517 519 523 526

Lake Louise Elementary Reside/Attend 618 610 614 597

K to 6th 723 769 Reside 1,196 1,194 1,151 1,145 1,125 1,131 1,149 1,160 1,152

Attend 682 655 635 623 602 608 626 637 629

Lincoln Elementary Reside/Attend 744 738 737 658

K to 6th 790 854 Reside 855 831 800 731 721 699 706 690 688

Attend 830 782 755 671 668 646 653 637 635

ELEMENTARY TOTAL Reside/Attend 7,273 7,419 7,595 7,305

K to 6th 9,751 10,439 Reside 9,224 9,088 9,026 8,656 8,514 8,416 8,399 8,316 8,292

Attend 9,204 9,071 9,009 8,649 8,501 8,403 8,386 8,303 8,279

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - May 2020 Over Option 1 Capacity

Capacity

Over Option 1 and Option 2 Capacity

Past School Enrollment Enrollment Projections


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Elementary Projections (Building)



School Student


Marion Jordan Elementary Reside/Attend 413 404 418 407

K to 6th 537 569 Reside 443 418 427 421 405 389 370 352 343

Attend 470 465 479 483 461 445 426 408 399

Pleasant Hill Elementary Reside/Attend 556 598 638 640

K to 6th 579 631 Reside 625 639 670 664 658 661 668 648 651

Attend 592 626 648 642 637 640 647 627 630

Stuart R. Paddock Elementary Reside/Attend 502 514 545 539

K to 6th 674 732 Reside 599 592 606 588 586 567 554 542 519

Attend 701 705 705 681 684 665 652 640 617

Thomas Jefferson Elementary Reside/Attend 275 279 280 267

K to 6th 518 550 Reside 307 300 297 283 291 284 275 262 264

Attend 441 455 446 416 433 426 417 404 406

Virginia Lake Elementary Reside/Attend 642 659 679 640

K to 6th 720 784 Reside 789 750 768 710 681 682 694 708 715

Attend 756 751 746 702 670 671 683 697 704

Willow Bend Elementary Reside/Attend 580 596 615 606

K to 6th 575 627 Reside 1,058 1,029 1,012 961 916 894 869 860 863

Attend 652 626 632 615 549 527 502 493 496

Winston Campus Elementary Reside/Attend 262 252 239 215

K to 6th 547 579 Reside 273 262 249 221 219 222 218 215 217

Attend 493 459 444 434 423 426 422 419 421

John G. Conyers Learning Academy Reside/Attend 0 0 1 0

K to 6th 491 491 Reside 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Attend 15 16 21 34 26 26 26 26 26


K to 6th 9,751 10,439 Reside 9,224 9,088 9,026 8,656 8,514 8,416 8,399 8,316 8,292

Attend 9,204 9,071 9,009 8,649 8,501 8,403 8,386 8,303 8,279


Capacity




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Secondary Projections (Building)



School Student


Carl Sandburg Junior High Reside/Attend 463 476 518 508

7th to 8th 574 849 Reside 484 498 534 531 479 471 470 429 387

Attend 501 504 541 522 478 470 469 428 386

Plum Grove Junior High Reside/Attend 782 841 801 784

7th to 8th 870 1,114 Reside 799 856 809 798 874 897 875 892 883

Attend 805 859 815 802 879 902 880 897 888

Walter R. Sundling Junior High Reside/Attend 605 646 638 664

7th to 8th 762 1,129 Reside 640 668 654 680 663 604 580 577 610

Attend 636 666 650 678 660 601 577 574 607

Winston Campus Junior High Reside/Attend 719 710 754 761

7th to 8th 736 1,091 Reside 752 733 774 790 823 762 665 621 629

Attend 747 732 767 772 811 750 653 609 617

John G. Conyers Learning Academy Reside/Attend 4 2 0 0

7th to 8th 0 0 Reside 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Capacity is shown in the Elementary Attend 10 13 15 32 23 23 23 23 23


K to 6th 9,751 10,439 Reside 9,224 9,088 9,026 8,656 8,514 8,416 8,399 8,316 8,292

Attend 9,204 9,071 9,009 8,649 8,501 8,403 8,386 8,303 8,279

JUNIOR HIGH TOTAL Reside/Attend 2,573 2,675 2,711 2,717

7th to 8th 2,942 4,183 Reside 2,679 2,757 2,771 2,799 2,839 2,734 2,590 2,519 2,509

Attend 2,699 2,774 2,788 2,806 2,851 2,746 2,602 2,531 2,521

DISTRICT TOTALS Reside/Attend 9,846 10,094 10,306 10,022

K to 8th 12,693 14,622 Reside 11,903 11,845 11,797 11,455 11,353 11,150 10,989 10,835 10,801

Attend 11,903 11,845 11,797 11,455 11,352 11,149 10,988 10,834 10,800


Capacity



VISUALIZING SUCCESS

Part Two:Task Force Concepts

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Boundary AnalysisConcepts Described (four original task force concepts):

• RSP was tasked with applying the geographical analysis and enrollment projections to each of the concepts developed by the Boundary Task Force

• While all the following concepts work, only Concept 4 works at the secondary level. This is due to capacity challenges when going from a 6-7 building to a 6-8 building.

• Capacity is provided by STR Partners LLC

• All concepts shown have complete elementary to secondary feeder.

• Concepts 2-4 capacity is based on having full day kindergarten at each elementary school.

• Concept 1 capacity is based on having half day kindergarten at each elementary school.

• The projections nor the capacity listed include pre-kindergarten.

• Concepts 1-3 have Thomas Jefferson converting to a middle school.

• Concept 4 has Thomas Jefferson staying as an elementary school.

• Concepts 3 and 4 have a new elementary opening on the NE side of the district (Park Place Elementary).

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Taskforce Concept 1Taskforce Concept 1 Notes:

• Thomas Jefferson Elementary changes from being an elementary to a middle school

• ½ Day kindergarten at each elementary school

• Bilingual Overlay is removed – all students go to the school in which attendance area they reside

• Grade Configuration changes from K-6, 7-8 to K-5, 6-8

• The 2020/21 school year projection data in the table represents the current grade configuration and attendance area for elementary and junior high

• The 2021/22 through 2024/25 school year projection data in the tables represents the proposed concept grade configuration and attendance area for elementary and junior high

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Taskforce Concept #1 (ES Map)❑ Concept #1 attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the elementary schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

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Taskforce Concept #1 (MS Map)❑ Concept #1 attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the middle schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

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Taskforce Concept #1 (Table)

Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• ½ Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school

For discussion to guide what should be

presented to the public concerning each concept.

Capacity provided by STR Partners LLC

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Half Day %

1. Central Road Elementary 352 610 593 598 599 603 99.3%

2. Frank C. Whiteley Elementary 531 597 592 609 581 646 89.9%

3. Gray M. Sanborn Elementary 427 564 574 560 575 618 93.0%

4. Hunting Ridge Elementary 741 626 646 622 602 707 85.1%

5. Jane Addams Elementary 446 510 499 505 511 652 78.4%

6.Kimball Hill Elementary 415 353 363 360 359 627 57.3%

7. Lake Louise Elementary 1,125 653 660 640 654 769 85.0%

8. Lincoln Elementary 721 604 596 592 584 854 68.4%

9. Marion Jordan Elementary 405 413 392 376 355 569 62.4%

10. Pleasant Hill Elementary 658 563 541 545 543 631 86.1%

11. Stuart R. Paddock Elementary 586 479 466 449 431 732 58.9%

12. Thomas Jefferson Elementary 291 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

13. Virginia Lake Elementary 681 595 618 622 613 784 78.2%

14. Willow Bend Elementary 916 426 425 430 410 627 65.4%

15. Winston Campus Elementary 219 188 187 183 187 579 32.3%

Total 8,514 7,181 7,152 7,091 7,004 9,398 74.5%

School

Projections Capacity

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Max %

16. Carl Sandburg Middle 479 509 499 477 472 601 78.5%

17. Plum Grove Middle 874 1,251 1,235 1,210 1,225 812 150.9%

12. Thomas Jefferson Middle 0 579 591 559 596 780 76.4%

18. Walter R. Sundling Middle 663 617 586 582 591 685 86.3%

15. Winston Campus Middle 823 1,012 924 916 919 825 111.4%

Total 2,839 3,968 3,835 3,744 3,803 3,703 102.7%

School


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Taskforce Concept #1 (Feeder)

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• Full Day kindergarten at each elementary school





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27


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Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Full Day %
















Total 8,514 7,183 7,154 7,092 7,004 8,742 80.1%

School


2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Max %





15. Winston Campus Middle 823 1,012 924 916 919 825 111.4%

Total 2,839 3,968 3,834 3,743 3,800 3,703 102.6%

School


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• New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Old Shopping Mall)



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Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school• New Elementary in the Northeast (Old Shopping Mall)

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2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Full Day %










Park Place Elementary 0 700 711 705 714 750 95.2%







Total 8,514 7,182 7,154 7,092 7,002 9,492 73.8%

School


2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Max %





15. Winston Campus Middle 823 907 843 826 814 825 98.7%

Total 2,839 3,968 3,833 3,742 3,799 3,703 102.6%

School


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35


• Thomas Jefferson Elementary remains an elementary



• Grade Configuration remains K-6, 7-8

• New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Old Shopping Mall)



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Taskforce Concept #4 (JH Map)❑ Concept #4 attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the junior high schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

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Capacity provided by STR Partners LLCConcept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-6 and 7-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2020/21 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary remains an elementary school• New Elementary in the Northeast (Old Shopping Mall)

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Full Day %










Park Place Elementary 0 675 677 680 683 750 91.1%







Total 8,514 8,418 8,397 8,319 8,290 10,010 82.8%

School


2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Max %

16. Carl Sandburg Junior High 479 514 522 496 480 849 56.5%

17. Plum Grove Junior High 874 933 911 907 886 1,114 79.5%

18. Walter R. Sundling Junior High 663 652 587 569 591 1,129 52.3%

15. Winston Campus Junior High 823 634 570 546 553 1,091 50.7%

Total 2,839 2,733 2,590 2,518 2,510 4,183 60.0%

School


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Boundary Concept ComparisonPros and Deltas (Considerations)

PROS▪ Relives capacity at Lake

Louise and Willow Bend▪ Complete ES to MS

feeder▪ Bilingual Overlay is

removed

DELTAS▪ Half Day Kindergarten▪ Middle School is still over

capacity

Concept #2

Concept #3

Concept #1

PROS▪ Full Day Kindergarten▪ Complete ES to MS


removed

DELTAS▪ Middle School is still over

capacity▪ Two schools are below

60% capacity: Kimball Hill and Winston Campus.

PROS▪ Neighborhood School

for NE portion of district▪ Complete ES to MS


removed

DELTAS▪ Five schools are below

60% capacity: Jane Addams, Kimball Hill, Lake Louise, Lincoln, and Winston Campus.

▪ Middle School is still over capacity

Concept #4

PROS▪ Neighborhood School

for NE portion of district▪ Complete ES to JH

feeder▪ No Elementary or Junior

High School is over capacity.

DELTAS▪ Five schools are above

95% capacity: Central Road, Pleasant Hill, Thomas Jefferson, Virginia Lake, and Willow Bend

▪ Only Plum Grove Junior High is above 60% capacity

▪ Most schools impacted by boundary change (6)

RSP Input on Concepts

VISUALIZING SUCCESS

Part Three:Concepts Updated

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Concepts Updated IntroductionConcepts Updated Drivers:

• Information based on input from CCSD15 and STR Partners LLC team to further develop concepts (phone calls/zoom)

• Desired a Complete Feeder from Elementary to Middle School to High School

• Boundary Break on the Railroad

• Boundary Break on 53 Hwy

• Potential middle school building enhancements (remodel)

• Estimated costs for improvements of MS to allow for needed educational space

• Potential new elementary school in northeast area (Park Place Area)

• Allow for elementary schools north of the Railroad to be under 90% utilization

• Updated functional capacity for elementary schools (new elementary school in northeast area)

• Updated functional capacity for JH/MS schools (80% utilization goal)

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Concept 4 Update IntroductionConcept 4 Committee Drivers:

o Thomas Jefferson Elementary remains an elementary school

o Full Day kindergarten at each elementary school

o Bilingual Overlay is removed – all students go to the school in which attendance area they reside in

o Grade Configuration remains K-6, 7-8 (ES, JH)

o Complete ES to JH to HS Feeder

o New elementary school in the northeast area of the district (Park Place Area)

o Central Road attendance area west of 53 Hwy

o Concept Preliminary Costs by STR Architecture (STR estimate $55,018,075)

NOTES:o The 2020/21 school year projection data in the table represents the current grade configuration and attendance

area for elementary and junior higho The 2021/22 through 2024/25 school year projection data in the tables represents the proposed concept grade

configuration and attendance area for elementary and junior higho Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Areao For Plum Grove to be at 80% of the Functional capacity at least 13 additional classrooms would be needed (STR

Partners LLC). o Full details of the STR potential costs related to the Updated Concepts will be provided when they have finalized

what those costs potentially could be (Many moving parts to creating solid costs – those used in the analysis are preliminary)

o Updated Boundary Break on 53 Hwy Clarification:• Inefficient utilization at Carl Sandburg JH

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Concept 4 (ES Map Update)❑ Concept 4 attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the elementary schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

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Concept 4 (JH Map Update)❑ Concept 4 attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the junior high schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

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Concept 4 (ES Projections Update)

For discussion to guide what should be presented to the public concerning each concept.

Capacity provided by STR Partners LLCConcept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school in which attendance area they reside in• Grade configuration is K-6 and 7-8 (Shown in charts beginning in the 2020/21 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary remains an elementary school• New Elementary in the Northeast area (Old Shopping Mall)• Complete ES to JH to HS Feeder• Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Area

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Full Day 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

1. Central Road Elementary 352 486 477 474 483 565 62.3% 86.0% 84.4% 83.9% 85.5%

2. Frank C. Whiteley Elementary 531 480 491 493 512 594 89.4% 80.8% 82.7% 83.0% 86.2%

3. Gray M. Sanborn Elementary 427 457 445 453 449 580 73.6% 78.8% 76.7% 78.1% 77.4%

4. Hunting Ridge Elementary 741 534 524 532 511 649 114.2% 82.3% 80.7% 82.0% 78.7%

5. Jane Addams Elementary 446 507 500 503 506 608 73.4% 83.4% 82.2% 82.7% 83.2%

6.Kimball Hill Elementary 415 523 521 521 527 601 69.1% 87.0% 86.7% 86.7% 87.7%

7. Lake Louise Elementary 1,125 504 515 526 519 723 155.6% 69.7% 71.2% 72.8% 71.8%

8. Lincoln Elementary 721 694 713 702 685 790 91.3% 87.8% 90.3% 88.9% 86.7%

9. Marion Jordan Elementary 405 510 490 467 447 537 75.4% 95.0% 91.2% 87.0% 83.2%

Park Place Elementary 0 628 633 630 632 900 0.0% 69.8% 70.3% 70.0% 70.2%

10. Pleasant Hill Elementary 658 510 515 503 514 579 113.6% 88.1% 88.9% 86.9% 88.8%

11. Stuart R. Paddock Elementary 586 645 633 603 591 674 86.9% 95.7% 93.9% 89.5% 87.7%

12. Thomas Jefferson Elementary 291 404 416 404 391 518 56.2% 78.0% 80.3% 78.0% 75.5%

13. Virginia Lake Elementary 681 567 578 576 586 720 94.6% 78.8% 80.3% 80.0% 81.4%

14. Willow Bend Elementary 916 510 491 489 491 575 159.3% 88.7% 85.4% 85.0% 85.4%

15. Winston Campus Elementary 219 452 448 444 447 547 40.0% 82.6% 81.9% 81.2% 81.7%

Total 8,514 8,411 8,390 8,320 8,291 10,160 83.8% 82.8% 82.6% 81.9% 81.6%

School


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Concept 4 (JH Projections Update)


Capacity provided by STR Partners LLCConcept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school in which attendance area they reside in• Grade configuration is K-6 and 7-8 (Shown in charts beginning in the 2020/21 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary remains an elementary school• New Elementary in the Northeast area (Old Shopping Mall)• Functional Capacity is defined as 80% utilization of the max capacity• Complete ES to JH to HS Feeder• Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Area• For Plum Grove to be at 80% of the Functional capacity at least 13 additional classrooms would be needed (STR Partners LLC).

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Functional 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

16. Carl Sandburg Junior High 479 352 341 297 271 680 70.4% 51.8% 50.1% 43.7% 39.9%

17. Plum Grove Junior High 874 1,180 1,163 1,178 1,158 890 98.2% 132.6% 130.7% 132.4% 130.1%

18. Walter R. Sundling Junior High 663 530 490 477 514 900 73.7% 58.9% 54.4% 53.0% 57.1%

15. Winston Campus Junior High 823 671 595 566 567 870 94.6% 77.1% 68.4% 65.1% 65.2%

Total 2,839 2,733 2,589 2,518 2,510 3,340 85.0% 81.8% 77.5% 75.4% 75.1%

School


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Concept 4 (Feeder Update)

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Concept 5 Updated IntroductionConcept 5 Committee Drivers:

o Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed as a middle school


o Bilingual Overlay is removed – all students go to the school in which attendance area they reside in

o Grade Configuration changes in 2021/22 to K-5, 6-8 (ES, MS)

o Partial Complete Feeder from ES to MS to HS Feeder (HS District 211- Railroad)

o Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle School


o Concept Preliminary Costs by STR Partners LLC (STR Estimate $28,632,788)

NOTES:o RSP noticed inefficiency of JH and desire from administration for a MS grade configuration; developed a scenario

that would address these and other items from task force conceptso The 2020/21 school year projection data in the table represents the current grade configuration and attendance


configuration and attendance area for elementary and middle schoolo Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Areao For Plum Grove to be at 80% of the Functional capacity at least 13 additional classrooms would be needed (STR

Partners LLC)o Full details of the STR potential costs related to the Updated Concepts will be provided when they have finalized


50

Concept 5 (ES Map Update)

❑ The Elementary Concept 5 attendance boundaries are the solid color blocks❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines.

51

Concept 5 (MS Map Update)❑ Concept 5 attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the junior high schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school• Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle School (Some instructional space to

science classrooms will be required (STR Partners LLC)• New Elementary in the Northeast (Old Shopping Mall)• Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Area• Elementary School Attendance Boundaries do not cross Hwy 53 and south of the railroad52

Concept 5 (ES Projections Update)

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Full Day 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
















Total 8,514 7,183 7,152 7,094 7,005 8,195 103.9% 87.7% 87.3% 86.6% 85.5%

School




Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school• Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle School (Some instructional space to science

classrooms will be required (STR Partners LLC)• Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Area• Elementary School Attendance Boundaries do not cross Hwy 53 and south of the railroad• To ease capacity in some of the years for Carl Sandburg STR Partners LLC suggest adding one classroom plus one

science room• Functional Capacity is defined as 80% utilization of the max capacity

53

Concept 5 (MS Projections Update)



2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Functional 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

16. Carl Sandburg Middle 479 783 740 682 674 680 70.4% 115.1% 108.8% 100.3% 99.1%

17. Plum Grove Middle 874 706 713 731 749 890 98.2% 79.3% 80.1% 82.1% 84.2%

12. Thomas Jefferson Middle 0 762 774 735 773 820 0.0% 92.9% 94.4% 89.6% 94.3%

18. Walter R. Sundling Middle 663 588 569 585 586 885 74.9% 66.4% 64.3% 66.1% 66.2%

15. Winston Campus Middle 823 1,128 1,036 1,010 1,019 1,310 62.8% 86.1% 79.1% 77.1% 77.8%

Total 2,839 3,967 3,832 3,743 3,801 4,585 61.9% 86.5% 83.6% 81.6% 82.9%

School


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Concept 5 (Feeder)

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Concept 5a IntroductionConcept 5A Committee Drivers:

o Thomas Jefferson Elementary repurposed as a middle school


o Bilingual Overlay is removed – all students go to the school in which attendance area they reside

o Grade Configuration changes in 2021/22 to K-5, 6-8 (ES, MS)

o New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Park Place Area)

o Partial Complete Feeder from ES to MS to HS Feeder (HS District 211- Railroad)

o Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle School


o Concept Preliminary Costs by STR Partners LLC (STR Estimate $68,145,288)

NOTES:o RSP noticed inefficiency of JH and desire from administration for a MS grade configuration; developed a scenario

that would address these and other items from task force conceptso The 2020/21 school year projection data in the table represents the current grade configuration and attendance


configuration and attendance area for elementary and middle schoolo Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Areao For Plum Grove to be at 80% of the Functional capacity at least 13 additional classrooms would be needed (STR

Partners LLC)o Full details of the STR potential costs related to the Updated Concepts will be provided when they have finalized


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Concept 5A (ES Map)

❑ The Elementary Concept 5A attendance boundaries are the solid color blocks❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines.

57

Concept 5A (MS Map)❑ Concept 5A attendance boundaries are the solid colors which represent the junior high schools❑ The areas impacted by the concept are highlighted as dotted blue lines – text shows current attendance area

Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school• Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle School (Some instructional space to

science classrooms will be required (STR Partners LLC)• New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Old Shopping Mall)• Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Area• Elementary School Attendance Boundaries do not cross Hwy 53 and south of the railroad58

Concept 5A (ES Projections)



2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Full Day 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25










Park Place Elementary 0 671 670 666 673 900 0.0% 74.6% 74.4% 74.0% 74.8%







Total 8,514 7,181 7,150 7,093 7,006 9,095 93.6% 79.0% 78.6% 78.0% 77.0%

School


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Concept 5A (MS Projections)



Concept Notes:• Bilingual Overlay is eliminated, and all students attend the school based on the attendance area in which they reside• Grade configuration is K-5 and 6-8 (Shown in charts beginning in 2021/22 school year)• Full Day Kindergarten• Thomas Jefferson Elementary is repurposed to a middle school• Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle School (Some instructional space to science

classrooms will be required (STR Partners LLC)• New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Old Shopping Mall)• Central Road Elementary school site is not within the Central Road Attendance Area• Elementary School Attendance Boundaries do not cross Hwy 53 and south of the railroad• To ease capacity in some of the years for Carl Sandburg STR Partners LLC suggest adding one classroom plus one science

room• Functional Capacity is defined as 80% utilization of the max capacity

2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Functional 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25

16. Carl Sandburg Middle 479 783 740 682 674 680 70.4% 115.1% 108.8% 100.3% 99.1%

17. Plum Grove Middle 874 706 713 731 749 890 98.2% 79.3% 80.1% 82.1% 84.2%

12. Thomas Jefferson Middle 0 762 774 735 773 820 0.0% 92.9% 94.4% 89.6% 94.3%

18. Walter R. Sundling Middle 663 588 569 585 586 885 74.9% 66.4% 64.3% 66.1% 66.2%

15. Winston Campus Middle 823 1,128 1,036 1,010 1,019 1,310 62.8% 86.1% 79.1% 77.1% 77.8%

Total 2,839 3,967 3,832 3,743 3,801 4,585 61.9% 86.5% 83.6% 81.6% 82.9%

School


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Concept 5A (Feeder)

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Updated Concepts ConversationConcept 4:o Complete feedero Thomas Jefferson remains an elementaryo Grade configuration of K-6, 7-8o Concept Preliminary Costs by STR Architecture (STR estimate $55,018,075):

• New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Park Place Area) (STR Estimate: $39,512,500)• Projects to improve the junior high schools (STR Estimate: $15,505,575)

Concept 5:o Partial Complete Feeder (HS District 211- Railroad)o Thomas Jefferson Elementary repurposed as a middle schoolo Grade configuration of K-5, 6-8 happens in 2021/22 school yearo It appeared with the grade configuration change the available middle school capacity was limited and there would

be adequate elementary capacity and from that information RSP looked to create a solution which may provide more middle school capacity

o Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle Schoolo Concept Preliminary Costs by STR Architecture (STR Estimate $28,632,788):

• Projects to improve the middle schools (STR Estimate: $28,632,788)

Concept 5A:o Partial Complete Feeder (HS District 211- Railroad)o Thomas Jefferson Elementary repurposed as a middle schoolo Grade configuration of K-5, 6-8 happens in 2021/22 school yearo It appeared with the grade configuration change the available middle school capacity was limited and there would

be adequate elementary capacity and from that information RSP looked to create a solution which may provide more middle school capacity

o Winston Campus Elementary becomes part of the Winston Campus Middle Schoolo Concept Preliminary Costs by STR Architecture (STR Estimate $68,145,288):

o New elementary in the Northeast area of the district (Park Place Area) (STR Estimate: $39,512,500)o Projects to improve the middle schools (STR Estimate: $28,632,788)

In all Updated Concepts:o Full Day kindergarten at each elementary schoolo Bilingual Overlay is removed – all students go to the school in the attendance area they reside

VISUALIZING SUCCESS

Part Four:Moving Forward

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The following items will assist the district advance its educational goals;❑ District administration and the Board of Education further study the enrollment, demographic, and development

information presented (Enrollment projected decrease so by 2024/25 with about 10,800 students)

❑ The type of residential development and how affordable it is and impact of COVID will determine likely location and number of students (tracking of type of development important to knowing the impact of those trends)

❑ Annually monitor the impact of future educational programming that will be integrated into each facility to ensure equitable and appropriate space is utilized in the building which will experience enrollment change (Emerging trends and demographic change)

❑ Full details of the STR potential costs related to the Updated Concepts (Concept 4, Concept 5, Concept 5A) will be provided when they have finalized what those costs potentially could be (Many moving parts to creating solid costs – those used in the analysis are preliminary)

❑ Evaluate the Concepts with the RSP projections and determine the appropriate communication for patrons to provide feedback or other options including but not limited to the following:

▪ What is the best elementary and middle school grade configuration for student academic growth?

▪ What is the ideal size of a middle school to ensure best student performance?

▪ Does the location of the elementary school impact other positive student and community outcomes?

▪ What is the ideal available capacity at each school that will allow for varying change in the student enrollment?

▪ What is the timing to complete building projects and implement a boundary change?

▪ What are the possibilities for student options (grandfathering, transfers, etc.)?

❑ RSP recommends a clear community process that would have Guiding Principles and prioritized Boundary Criteria to ensure transparent and complete discussion of potential boundary changes

Next Steps

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Notes

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19/20 Enrollment Analysis - BoardDocs, a Diligent Brand · 2020. 9. 10. · Other Items Enrollment...

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Transcript of 19/20 Enrollment Analysis - BoardDocs, a Diligent Brand · 2020. 9. 10. · Other Items Enrollment...