191 sspp01 keys

Chaotic TransitionsHow today’s trends will affect

tomorrow’s information environmentMarshall Keys, Ph.D.

MDA ConsultingPOB 534 Nantucket MA [email protected]

Environmental scanning for libraries and information organizations

And what do I see out there?

Some common issues

Demographic changes

Personalization

Ubiquitous Technology

Intellectual Property

Globalization

Community

Cutting to the chase

Where I would conclude if you were librarians, almost

Libraries have new populations to serve

Some of whom don’t know about what they do

Some of whom can’t access what they doSome of whom don’t care about what they

do

Libraries haven’t got any money

• All kinds of things are appearing on the horizon that will cost money,

• And vendors cannot, will not, and should not provide products or services at unsustainable prices or they will go out of business.

• “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

Libraries have a huge investment in the status quo

Libraries have huge investments – human and financial – in technologies that are not at the cutting edge

Libraries are rule-bound organizations in a society with little respect for limits

Libraries are professionally committed to levels of privacy that nobody else cares about

Libraries are committed to places,not to missions

• Blockbuster vs Netflix• Borders vs Amazon• Building libraries as civic monuments• Central libraries vs everybody else:

Walgreens, CVS, Starbucks, and Bank of America

• Upper West Side

Libraries are committed to a medium, not a message

Libraries remain identified with print when the world can– view DVD’s in their cars – carry their music and video collections in their

pockets– Search databases and view videos on their

cell phonesDoes the American Medical Association

have a “Center for the Stethoscope” as libraries have a “Center for the Book”?

Our content providers are caught between

• Complete disregard of any concept of intellectual property among the young

• Growing reluctance of content creators to work within the established model (PLOS, preprint servers, blogs)

• Reluctance of major customers to accept the dominant business model

Why is this happening, what does it mean to you, and

what can be done about it?

A bit of theory: chaotic transitions

Theodore ModisPredictions, 1992

Chaotic transitions for libraries and publishers

• No dominant technological model– What are the tools that people will use to

access knowledge?• No dominant business model

– How will content be distributed and paid for?• No dominant intellectual model

– What is a library in 2006? What will it be in 2016? What will scholarly publishing be in 2016?

“Successful organizations share “a powerful understanding of what rapid social and economic change mean for consumers’ needs and wants.”

Why these issues matter

Nancy Koehn, Brand New, 2002

Assumptions and questions

• The future of libraries/publishers depends on their ability to meet the emerging needs of users.

• Who will those users be?• What are their emerging needs?• How will these needs differ from traditional

needs?• How can libraries/publishers respond to them?• Ten year horizon

Changing users: “What’s a cassette?”

Young woman to young man on the MBTA subway, Boston,

January, 2002

Buzznet

The blog mentality

• What I think is important• What I think is important to other people• Things are important because I think they are

important: the “whatever” corollary: • If I don’t think it’s important, it isn’t important• “Esse est percipi”: • 51% of Bloggers are between 13 and 19, 90%

under 30• Privacy is unimportant; community is important• Bloggers are your users, your users-to-be, and

the next generation of professional leaders!

Michael Gorman on the Web

"I don't always think people's opinions are worth reading," he says. "They should not be published. I really like the filtering that publishers do. You don't publish maundering.“

“What's the Difference Gorman vs. Stripling?” by John N. Berry III –LJ 3/15/2004

Graphic: Photograph of ALA President Michael Gorman

And Blaise Cronin, Library School Dean

“Blogging is CB radio on steroids. It’s all the rage. The Web has become the universal soapbox. No voice need be unheard; no whine denied oxygen. It’s the fusion of vanity publishing and the bully pulpit. Every idea, no matter how trite or crazy can see the light of digital day.”

• Graphic: Photograph of Blaise Cronin, Indiana University

“You don’t get it, Daddy, because they’re not targeting you!”

Graphic: New Yorker cartoon of daughter addressing father

Not just Old Geezers:“Back in the 1980’s,” says Emily Nussbaum, “When I attended high school, there were

• No cellphones• No answering

machines• No “texting”• No MP3’s

• No JPEG’s• No digital cameras• No file sharing

software• No Web” “My so-called Blog”, Emily

Nussbaum, NYT MagazineJan 11, 2004

Emerging users, dominant themes

• Community• Portability• Personalization

Community

Community: our sort

Every parent’s worst fear

60,000,000 users worldwide

Suddenly looks benign

Community: Where!

Community: written

Community: visual

Community: indiscreet

Community: multimedia

Community: universal theme

Technology: ubiquitous

• Graphic: young African American with mobile phone

• Graphic: young bearded man (soul patch?) kissing IPod

Ubiquitous technology: TVUbiquitous technology: TV

Download it and take it with you everywhere

Ubiquitous technology: TV

Sony Slingbox

Connect your cable to the net, and it follows you everywhere!


Personalization: Pimp My Ride

Personalization: HGTV

Personalized technology

Personalization + portable technology

Ridiculous personalized technology

“Branded ubiquity”• Every one of those items represents an

attempt to make money by responding to and reinforcing a trend.

• The stakes: who will control the interaction between gadgets?

• What will libraries/publishers do to respond to those trends?

• Richard Siklos, “Linking a device to a gadget that is wired to a gizmo,” NYT01/08/06

A deeper look

Parsing the telephone

Buzznet depends on personal and personalized communication

The phone up close: personalization• Download ring tones that sound like the real

thing ($5 billion in 2005)• Personalize your phone by saving your own

pictures as Wallpaper• Jazz up your phone with full color pictures and

Wallpaper• Interchangeable faceplates let you personalize

your phone to suit your style• Marketing message: You are unique even

though you are just like everyone else

The phone up close: information appliance

• Send and receive e-mail• Send quick notes to your friends using text

messaging• Send and receive AOL Instant Messages• Look up your horoscope or local

information on movies, the music scene or whatever!

• Marketing message: You are no longer tied to old stuff like computers

The phone up close:the phone ‘n’ more

• Use your phone as a modem• Take pictures with the camera and send

them to any e-mail address or T-mobile phone

• Marketing message: you are connected to your friends through multimedia

• Nowhere does the advertisement mention using the phone to talk to people!

Trends: camera phones US camera phone sales

2005: 47% of all mobile phones

2 for 1 sale in Rich Square, NC (pop 931)

Why? “Darryl’s first picture with his new camera phone”

Graphic: Snapshot of young African American family

Geoffrey Moore’s Model Technology adoption

(Crossing the Chasm, 1991)

Metcalfe’s Law

N(N-1)

The value of a communication system grows as the approximate square of the number of participants

Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet

And leads to

A world of ubiquitous, multi-media communication

Old: “Everything is on the internet”

New: “Everything is on the phone”

Old: Slingbox

New: Slingplayer Mobile!

Old: internet ready reference

Old “auction” business model

New: telephone ready reference!

New: fixed price business model

And now in the USA: for 49 cents!

The predictions business

"Video won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."

- Daryl F. Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, commenting on television in 1946

What does it mean to libraries?

• Users for whom the phone is a/the primary information appliance– Phone interface to local systems and web

based information resources– Reference through text messaging– Bandwidth and graphical interface issues

• Users who are willing to pay for information – delivered the way they want it!

What does it mean to publishers? New models of acquiring information

OLD• Formal resources• Authority • Solitary activity

NEW• Peer to peer• Social networks• Being in touch all the time

everywhere

What does it mean to the information industry?

“In Japan, bookstores complain of ''digital shoplifting'';

instead of buying magazines, readers snap pictures of stories and bulk-forward them to friends:

‘It's like a Napster thing -- anything you see in the environment becomes something you can easily capture and share.’”

Thompson; see also “Cell phone cams spreading mischief”, Yuri Kageyama, Associated

Press, July 10, 2003

Chaotic transitions in intellectual property

‘It's like a Napster thing -- anything you see in the environment becomes something you can easily capture and share.’

Industry responds with lawsuits

Hackers respond by shutting down RIAA website!

Courts consistently held against copyright holders

• “Canadian court prevents suits against music sharers”

• “US court: Software can't commit piracy”• Until the US Supreme Court!

Kids and the lawKids and the law

• Graphic: girl lighting pipe on beach

• Graphic: College student smoking “blunt” (hollowed cigar filled with marijuana)

• Graphic: young man with 10” spliff

• Graphic: two girls partially dressed with large marijuana seed head

Industry responds with High Tech

• “RIAA uses digital fingerprints and metadata" tags embedded within many MP3 music files.” Boston Globe, Aug 28, 2003

• Publishers respond with DOI• MPAA responds with “broadcast flags”

Boston Globe, 8/28/9003

Users respond with Low Tech: “Music CD Swappers Turn to Snail Mail”

“It may be a crime to swap digital music over the Internet, but there's no law against doing it through the Postal Service.

That's the theory behind La La Media Inc., an Internet start-up that encourages music lovers to trade tunes by mail.”

• If it works for Netflix . . . .• Hiawatha Bray, Boston Globe May 5, 2006

But it’s moot: Earth Station 5

ES5’s competitive advantage

If not Jenin, then Vanuatu, home to Kazaa

But the cat is out of the bag, and the medium is the message

And not for the first time

• Graphic: Synthetic Cubism. Picasso, “The Guitar,” 1913

• Graphic: Article on “cento” from NY Times Book Review

But now copyright holders are the bad guys!

• Graphic: article from Financial Times“Copyright is stifling creativity in America”

And the people to work around

“Fair use and aggressive offers by documentary film makers”

Elaine Dutka, NYT, Business, May 28, 2006, p.28

A parenthetical digression: copyright for scholarly publishing

• What is the real danger at the consumer level?• Is there enough danger to remain identified with

the bad guys?• The Federal Research Public Access Act of

2006– If you can’t convince Senators Lieberman and Cornyn

about the value of the present model, try explaining it to Representative Bubba Bilbo

• What are the interests of the creators of content?

• With ownership comes responsibility:– The obligation to preserve– The obligation to publish

Chaotic transitions in the content business

Elsevier stock price (US ADR’s) over the last ten years

Chaotic transition in business models

And the 800 Pound Gorilla!

Chaotic technology: new stuff coming down the road

New ways to find information for new user expectations

Ubiquity: any time, any where, any way

Joseph Turow’s students at Penn see little difference between television and the Internet.

They watch ''The O.C.'' on their laptops, at home on TiVo and by swapping the show (perhaps illegally) through file-sharing.

The coming generation is accustomed to the idea of watching or listening to anything on any device that's nearby.

Jon Gertner, “Our Ratings, Ourselves” NYT 04/10/2005

Evolving information technology: the search for portability

• Wireless networks are the current state of the art in library technology

• Ubiquitous (“Ultra-mobile”) computing is the next

An idea whose time had not come

New ways 2002

• Ovid in Hand

• Innovative’s AirPac

New ways 2006:Microsoft Origami

“Ultra-mobile computing”

The tyranny of computing models

• Input• Storage• Processor• Display• Output

All unified in a single device: desktop, laptop, PDAwhatever!

Distributed computing: input

Laptops add at least four pounds to a backpack. So students take notes on hand-held computers with foldout keyboards. At Yale Divinity School, Kristen Dunn uses a Palm VX and a foldout keyboard. ''It was the best money I ever spent in preparing for school.''

“Existential Essentials” by Melanie D.G. Kaplan, NYT, 8/1/04

“Saves you from lugging around a laptop” Melissa White, MLA, October 2004

Distributed computing: input

• Siemens VKB• Get rid of the

blankety-blank stylus!

Distributed computing: storage

Distributed computing: processing

Distributed computing: processing

Linux for iPod

The issue: size vs rich content

• Rich graphical interfaces versus miniaturization• Bandwidth versus portability

Graphic: Cartoon “Amazing! A man with a 36” TV screen insists on a 3” PDA”

Distributed computing: display

Distributed computing: display

Sony Ericsson projection picture phone: why carry a screen?

Changing technology

New ways to find information

Old ways: portals

New ways: personalized portals

At RIT . . . about half the students have created personalized versions of the [university’s] Web site.

“Students . . . don't go looking to find information. They want information brought to them.” Shifted Librarian Feb 12, 2004

Old ways: search engines

New ways: personalized search engines

Community: search engine with social networking

Community, not privacy is the message!

Community: social bookmarks

Community, not privacy!

Community: social cataloging

The problem with peer-to-peer

• What if all your friends are stupid, uninformed, or have lousy taste in media?

• Suspicions about Google and its algorithm• GIGO?

But the trend is clear: people want personalized information access

• Having it their way vs doing it our way

• “Lean Consumption” Harvard Business Review March, 2005

– “using technology to reduce time and hassle for customers and get them what they want when they want it.”

Personalized information access: Amazon does it!

• What I looked at before• What other people looking at the same

topic have looked at• What they think about what they looked at• What else I might like to look at based on

what I looked at this time• But what about privacy? What about

ALA?

And what about privacy?• No expectation of

privacy because they do not believe that it exists in an electronic environment

• If I view it or send it, they will see it

• I don’t care• Bounded rationality

• Graphic: MenwithHill, Yorkshire, NSA listening station

• Graphic: hand with surgically inserted RFID

Tomorrow’s users and privacy

Bounded rationality

• Graphic: photograph of girls behaving badly by flashing at fraternity party, posted by friends

• Graphic: photograph of girls behaving badly, drinking in underwear in residence hall, posted by friends

Evolving technology

New ways to display information

Old Ways: local systems

Old ways: hit lists

New ways: knowledge maps

Knowledge map: Grokker and Anacubis

“But wait, there’s more!”Emerging technology

Life beyond browsers

• Graphic: photograph of a bunch of boys sitting around playing computer games

Beyond browsers“In 1999 [virtual stores] made no sense. They didn't fit with

using the Internet through a Web browser. The browser was a two-dimensional medium. It still is.

But the world of gamers is generally 3-D. All of a sudden, a 3-D store doesn't seem like science fiction if the medium isn't the browser and the hardware isn't a PC.”

• “2004: Beyond the Browser?” Jack Aaronson January 8, 2004 www.clickz.com/experts/crm/crm_strat/article.php/3296541

Beyond the browser meets community toy: PlayStation 2

To be everyone’s pal, show up at American University with a Sony PlayStation 2, pop in a game, open your door and voila! ''It's the one thing that made my social life significantly easier,'' says Steven White. ''Crazy Taxi was the game to have, or any sports game, things multiple people can play.”

“Existential Essentials” by Melanie D.G. Kaplan, NYT, 8/1/04

From toy to tool: Linux for XBox

From toy to tool: PS2 supercomputer

National Center for Supercomputer Applications, the folks who brought you MOSAIC, father of Netscape,

grandfather of Internet Explorer

Ultramobile tool: Portable Play Station

Don’t tell Bill, but it looks an awful lot like Origami!

The predictions business

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"

- Harry M. Warner, Warner Bros Pictures, 1927

But what does the library look like if

the medium isn’t a browser and the hardware isn’t a PC?

Well, at Appalachian State University, they are finding out!

Platform

Simulations

What must libraries/publishers do to serve a world in which

• Users expect information to be delivered to them?

• Users expect technology and interfaces to be highly personalized?

• Users care more about convenience and community than privacy?

• Users have a new metaphor for computing?

The new user: a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention

Charles Lax is at a conference near LA, but he isn’t all here. Out of one ear, he listens to a presentation while he surfs on a wireless laptop, occasionally checking his Blackberry for e-mail.

He flew from Boston and paid $2,000 to attend. But he can’t unwire himself long enough to give the presenters his complete focus.

If he did, he would face a fate worse than lack of productivity:he would become bored.

“The Lure of Data,” Matt Richtel, NYT, July 7, 2003

• Graphic: photo of Charles Lax

Time to retire?

Some people get it

“In creating the iPod, Steve Jobs has shifted the emphasis of Apple from what made it famous –hip, even lovable computers – to what he hopes will keep it relevant and profitable in the future: products for a digital way of life.”

“Oh, Yeah, he also sells computers,” John

Markoff, NYT, April 25, 2004

“Products for a digital way of life”

• Convergent devices: music, then text, then video

• All functions in one appliance• Personalized• Portable• Changing (if not advancing) rapidly• Right smack in the middle of a chaotic

transition!

Some companies get it: BBC• Find, Share, Play

strategy• "BBC iPlayer to offer

catch-up television up to 7 days after broadcast

• Download any programme from 8 BBC channels

• Watch it on your PC, TV set or download to your mobile phone to watch it when you want.“ Lorcan Dempsey’s Blog April 30, 2006

Some librarians get it: Susan Kent

• “The future for libraries is personalizing service on a customer interest basis.”

• “The future focus of technology in libraries will be promoting and delivering content-rich programming.”

Some faculty get it: Paul Hagner, EDUCAUSE

"It's not our world any more; those who grew up on the Internet accept continuous change and turmoil in the technology they use, and they expect their teachers to keep up.”

”Colleges plan for 'digital natives’”, Gary Robertson, Richmond Times Dispatch, 5/10/06

The future

• The past: print-centric• The present: web-centric• The future: ?-centric

– Customer focus, not organizational focus– Not library technology but user technology– What they have, not what we have– What they want, not what we want to give them

• We worry about getting computers to the poor when we could port the information to their phones

Don’t tell me about your grass seed, when I want to know about my

lawn!Focus on the need of the user, not

the features of your product!

A library accessible to user technology

• Desk top computer, Laptop, PDA, Telephone, iPod, even game station

• Marketing message: “Any where, any time, any way you want, your library is there”

• Graphic: photo of boy kissing IPod again

A library that uses technology to offer rich program content:

• Circulation is an outdated measure of service.• Users who do not come to the library are not a

failure: – “Treat all students like distance education students”

Ann Marie Casey, Central Michigan University

• Academic Message: Research from the dorm is the norm!

• Public Message: Research from the car or wherever you are!

Users have the technology; BUT we need to adapt to it

“Designing library services for the PDA” Jessica Mussell, Royal Roads University http://ocls.cmich.edu/conference/presentations/jmussell_pda_pres.ppt#10

A study of possibilities and problems of distributing information to distance education students via PDA’s

Findings

• Lack of content outside STM

• E Books the favored application

• Poor interfaces• Only Google Mobile

looked good• pdf and image files

clogged wireless networks

Do publishers get it?

User preferences: students

• "I go to the library once or twice a week to study. If I'm doing research, I sit at home and get on my computer. I go to Google.“

• "The journal was hard to read, and it was hard to find. . . plus they put four journals in one binding and it was really heavy and inconvenient.“

– “Students check out the Web instead of library” Mary Jane Smetanka, Minneapolis Star Tribune May 7, 2004

User preferences: faculty

Faculty survey, University of CaliforniaResearchers preferred electronic information to paper by 16 to 1 when given a choice

• 75% must have electronic information • 50% must have paper• They don’t want to come to the library

either!• Reported at ALA Toronto in 2003

Notes toward a definition of scholarly products for a digital way of life

• Portable– Always with me – Optimized for portability– designed for small screens

• Personalized– Multiple platforms; runs on what I brung– Multiple formats: ‘Dr Blank’s’ Sierra Nevada

Adventure – RSS so it finds me– Links to my past activities– Links to similar materials (“Other people who…”)


• Promotes community– Connection to other users (community of practice) – Prefer levels of access (newbies, not privacy, the

issue)

• Has critical management features– Facilitates personal file copies– Cut and paste– Tagged for retrieval beyond keyword– Don’t want to go through a proxy server– No pdf ever


• Facilitates discovery– Standard search engines as well as indexes and

catalogs

• Accessible at a reasonable price • Available direct to user as well as through library

or membership – New income stream, marginally priced

• cf broadcasters selling shows for IPOD

– Purchase decision will depend on quality of abstracting or on quick views

Technological revolutions

• In the first stage of a technological revolution, we automate the old processes.

• In the second stage, we do things differently: Google and the advertising model

• In the third stage, we do different things: simulation, multimedia, community based?

• What’s next for you?

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