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APAPER ON -PANICS AND BOOMS" READ BEFORE THESOUTHERN CALIFORNIAEDITORIAL ASSOCIATIONINJUNE 1897 , BYLMHOLT,AT AMEETINGHELD AT ALPINE TAVERN OUTLINESCLEARLY THE BUSINESS ACTIV-ITY OF TO-DAY.

tlonn. Itwillnot be ntrnngo If specu-lative property will be advanced Inprice beyond what can bo maintainedduring a period of financial depres-siona period of paying Indebtedness.No on e should bollove for a momentthat the present advance in pricesca n alwa>H be mainta ined. Whenprices reach the top there will bothoiiftandft of people who willbe com*polled to fcell In order to meet ma -turing obligations. This willcause adepression in prices, and this depres-sion will cause still further necessi-ties for selling.inune . Ii. L.M.Holt read beforea meet;ng of the Southern California

IM.iurlal Association, held at AlpineTavern, a paper on "Panics andttooms" that ko closely outlined andp:euktd the preeent condit ion ofaffairs, giving the causes therefor,that w e republlsh the same for th ebenefit of those who may be Incl ined

R-lf makes greater business activity.During periods of business depressionthere is not work for all, and this ofitself makes business dull and un-profitable.The existence of either on e of theseconditions leads necessarily to th eother. It Is an Impossibility forcither prosperous times or depressedtimes to continue permanently.During prosperous times, there be -ing work for all,all ar e supplied withthe means of accumulating wealth,an d thus all ar e enabled to providethemselves and families with all th enecessaries, and many of the luxuries,of life; and hence, during the prosper*ou s times th e demand for goods an dproperty increases, and soon the de -mand exceeds the supply, and thenprices advance.This rule, which Is applied to thelaborer, is also applied to th e busi-ness man . Prosperous times Inducebusiness men to branch out In theirseveral lines of trade. The volumeof trade. The volume of trade beinglarge, each gets a corresponding pro-portlon of itMany bu sin ess m en findthat they can do more business than

FINANCIALPROSPERITY PREDICTED.

THE AKKOWHEAP .

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Tiircii*rrrr irminr avp tiirmeticax custom iiouab, o* tub nocndarv lineVEABTHr ||K.D OK THE IMPRRIAL CAVU. JiTSTrM.

After the panic of 1K75 It took th e[ -p !e f f Southf-rn California fiveyears to K*t rendy for bu lnenH ucain;ln 1180 . A similar period after th ernnle of 1893 oueht to place thiscountry aualn In line for business ac-tivity. The panic of 1 3 9 . T w as morewidespread In Its operations than thntnt IR7 .*; 1*; but loenlly. it woh not sosevere, a comparatively little, money*-ah lost by depositor* by fallingbnnksIInSouthern California four yenrs njfo.jwhereas in 187.1 the |os w as very

Hon.D.C. Reed, now mayor of the Cityof San Diego, gave a banquet at theHorton Hou*a l estate because It can bo soldreadily airaln at stillmore fancy prlcr9Indlvldoali of UniltCHl capital hcli:. -.v.iv.S and hundre*ls of thou. u u *of dollars worth of property on wh!c*enly a mall payment has been rna!e .An" advance of five per cent on tht-

Thui the bujincK* of the countryl forced into An active condition. . : - . :thu buinr&s activity Increases inprouHtrlc.il pr\>i;region until wajcciroach their maximum pt^lnt. factoriesArr running to their utmost capacity,price* of all kinds of puoiin and ulikin taer want pmflts on lncrcanlns.'. :.\i.:* - and other* simply bc-caus -o. \ .:..". .\ .\:ii Idea* of ltvlne.

A time is finallyreached when pop.e: i. -.:\ to iut of debt, and then t.-.- >!k;nto litea littlei i:. buy nortOf the nevesMrlc* of life ami *;>m:'of the Uuurles. As tho numU-r oltvHijle in inch Inroved coodition in-crca*e*. trade N'uin to pick up; ;.w \ u 2 5 a 0 onlc-r* arc* *ent to the factories, uw mhcrl .v- set Inmotion, more opt-ia-ti\c*arr emp] o> r l an d more propkare ;-;.u .1 in position to buy morvpoods, uhlch in turn :.::.* more tullinana pltc* emplmment to Mill morrmen.

a bonnrt A nd drew Instcxtd of titn^new one*.Allprofile Jn a dn section olCountry up* their cirdilAt the Minttime I.mm tbr-y Ale nil R o % e i n c ll- > the name lotai oanditions. Hence,there Is firiltious st imulation olprice* which tnuM m < to an cud.This md trinp a financial drprrs-Mon which muM necr*Mrlly follow aperiod of tu^ncw Aftivity.

When the people itrrlte at a pointwhere their credit limit Is rrachctiU.cre is nccc*rilv uecrrAJc inthrdemand for poodn A nd prtipwty. androtm tho supply t>eo \mc* grtMttrr thsnthe' fictnftjidA nd prkaipino decline,TbU nlc*n feculation. Thousands C Iprople cnfragcl in tnanufatcurlnfc o rprodw inp article* of Rcntral uc rethus thromu out of employment, anilthi> cacM o pUU further drds bought on cnMH-Decaute of till*dcvrrA*e In valuation*all ai *xnpe l l r o f l t flaring v^r-J o e l s ' of prosr^rltv whf - n thbt and the debt must he p a d. andhence It is not usually practical toLke the chanK*. Iftw*e would

nOO r lduannye the surplus {Jjrot.ntry are paid and th e P^oj,,Fi r apaln. P pi lire within theirIncome and temporarily lrn nomical habiU. M^nsmo** frwjj; , t > e r rlrars and ladfc* P 7 * ^f^wer Hbbons an d occasionally fix over

At the rlwe of a speculative boomjthe chattjso cotur* like n thief lit th-|ight. In fact n thief In the night'wouM be n wcktune vUltor to manyjtuMcad of the chanK which putii inin n nj'prarnnci*. but the * hnnc< fftifli financial deprcaslon to better limescome* graduallywjgradually Ibal f*ituontt.s their is a difference of opinion'a n to whether it ehnii (for the betterIas actually c o m m e n c e d or not.Glance for a moment over the n n a n clal history of the century J u n t * los-ing, and pV c what ha s been the ton-ditioa of ihocountry. During 1 H 3 7 tnerountrj *v.ik in the midst ofa linmciilpanic. Again during the year IS57twci.ty )a: liter there \a anotlni!panic. In lvia nnumlal crisis struckth* rastrrn ittatcs nnd the great bank->fnc house of Jay took Si Co . wnsfound Aroons the financial wrecks acatt red throughout that sx:tliin of the. untry. *nl"' |nB ame paniciarhoil tl e r.iclflc Coatt. - c U w l m c thedoon of the Hank of California olBa n Pranclico. together wi th maujother banking insiltutions. Includingthe then popular banking house ufTemple and Workman In our ow n 1 * *Ange l e s a bank that failed for o\r.i million dollar* an d never paid vc< nt on the dollar to the many unfor-:*:nttfdepositors.In 1 5 9 3 the next panic struck theI'nlted States after ha\itiK wrecked 'many hanking Institution* In SouthA m e r i c a . Australia, an d other parts ofthe world.During the year ISS6. when tho latespeculative boom w as getting und;rgood headway la Southern California.

IMPERIAL, PKUSS

Capitalists arnow active., laying thefoundations solidly for future opera-tions In this, Ood'H corner of theuniverse: nnd whi le w e, would not nrt-vlo pe op l e tostand still and s e e th

Ical conditions In Southern Cali-fornia will affect tho Issuo here, aitdthey appear In ou r favor. Tho build-Ing of the breakwnter at Snn Pedroby the government willInsure anothertranscontinental railroad from th e earnto Ix)flAngeles via Utah. Then a 1cent a pound tariffon citrus fruits, thebuilding of more beet -sugar factories*and the Improvement of the vast waterpower of the mountain streams, andthe wetting of that power to workbuilding up an d enriching tho country.all the se nnd moro willhelp alonKthe- good work.

This Is a remarkably clear state-ment of the facts of tho can, and Ihevidence from unquestionable author-ity that the position taken herein incorrect.

"The statement that, except for thetemporary depression in prices th*volume of business transacted Is nowlarger than It w as In 1532- the yearof the. greatest prosperity-has beenquestioned by some. Bu t a compan -ionof price* this we k In the leadingbranches of manufacture, not onlyconfirms that view, but shown a re-m.irk.iM" similarity to the course ofprices In the early months* of IST'J.when th e most wonderful advance Inproduction and prices ever known inthis or any other country w aclone at hand. The key ofthe si tuation is the excessiveproduction of some goods In advanceof an expected Increase in demand. So .In 1 8 7 9 , conHtimptlon gradually gained,month by month, until suddenly Uwas found that the demand w an great-er than the possible supply. Allknowhow prlres then advanced and th-most marvelous progress In the historyof any country resulted within twoyears. Reports from allpart* of trtcountry now show that retail dis-tribution of product** Is unusually largeand Increasing."

Tho country Is today (IM>7l runningInto a period of great business activ-ity: It has but recently reached th.itpoint, in fact there Is a differenceof opinion among business mentoday as to whether business* Is im-proving or notthe improvement Is sogradual. However . Dun & Cp. ' s TradeReview of June 5 . 1597. says:

It in a difficultmatter to make thepeopUi believe that o ur country Innow entering upon another period ofprosperity. Koch one ha s a remedyfor hard times. And each otto stick*firmly to tho proposition that butlertime* cnunot come again until hisremedy Ims been Applied. These rem-edies are mostly of a political nature.One man believes that a high protec-tive tariff Is all that Is nccctuutry torestore prosperity to iho country, an aanother thinks tho free coinage of sil-ver and p>lij on a basis of 16 to 1without making any suggestions tor.ny other nation about the matterwould bring Rood times. There Is aoquestion but the legislation on botnthee> questions or either of thcatwouldnftVct tho main proposition. Wlglegislation willalways assist Inbring-ing prosperity, and unwise legislationwill always retard the coming of bet-ter times, but no legislation, no mat-ter what It be. can prevent the Incom-ug tide any more than the little childon tho sandy beach with its littleshovel can. by piling up a ridge ofsand, stay the Incoming surf.

IfSouthern California in generaland l/wtAngeles city in particular ca nmako such n allowing during n periodof financial deprtjmlon. what will lxthe result when tho clouds roll by an dprosperous time* arc enjoyed nKnl t tthroughout the country * * large?

inactual wraith Southern Californiahim kept (tare with tho Increase ofpopulation, although on account ofIho bunlncfut depremtion cif tho countrynml the decrease In valuation allore?Iho world. thlH Increase In weal th lanot mapparent. With tho extraor-ilinnry increase In population andwraith in l .>n AtiKelcs city during thopant seven yearn, nothing nhort of afin.uKiai depression nil over thocountry could have prevented th.it cityfrom experiencing a speculative boomof croat magnitude.

Again i-o far siSouthern CalofornlnI*C O & C C r n o d the i .wivn yraribanJ.i!t \ kindly with our pooplo.Pouthcrn California Increased In popu-latt.'ii fiuiii 200,000 in IHUU to ()V-r;: In IH9O. I .\im

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Overland to Imperial.

Not C h e a p W a te r .We DOtke , in tho T im es Indox, thefollowingItem concerning wat*rwhldiwillInterest *orno Kedlands people:Highland orange growers ar o con-sidering a proposition to thorn where-by It Is asserted that water ca n bosupplied fordomestic usf and irrigating

purpose* at t\ maximum price of 30ci.nU per miners ' Inch. If this isaccomplished itwillmoan a great re-duct ion In expenses to orcharding.The offer was made by M. F. Bald-winwho Is Interested In tho no w dec-[trie light and power plant In MillCreek Canon. Mr. Ba ldwin propose*to bring electricity from MillCrockCaftan to Highland whore wells willbo dug an da pumping stat ion estab-lished from which wator c an bepumped to all partH of Highland.Mr. iialdwln'Mcompany agro.es to fur-nish tho pumps and power If theorange growers will associate them-selves together and dig th e w e ll s.The proposal ha s been we ll r ec e iv e dand In fait it is practically decidedthat it will be accep ted . The wellswillprobably be located near the cor-ner of Bae Lino and Palm avenue.01 Base Line and Boulder avenue.Both of th e locations ar o on lowland,but a hoisting plant will bo instal ledto pump It to tbo higher elevations.

If you have, fr iends coming toCal i fo rn i a or you aro going East thiswinter, 'twill be found profltablo tu *'d government Irrigationsystem to help th e nat ives . It wouldmean th e const ruct ion of a canal, be-ginning above th e r e s e r v a U o b and run-nlnc through It to empty kdow In theImperial main canal . It would costabout $20,000. and would bo of Inral-culnblo bonofit to the Yumas, ofwhomthort* nro ab ou t S O O on the reservat ion.The government propones, hovrevor. toPell part of their limhlh to provide forth e expense. They have no more landno w thnn they need to bo thoroughlyprosperous.

"The Yum.iH arr* badly disposedtoward tb o school at present, and a*chove n hard t lmo keeping the chl ldre t ifrom rticapln. District schools, a c om-petent Instructor In farming to poalxiut the reservat ion and tllrwt thecrops, and ft field matron to go Intoth e homes and teach housekeeping,would do away wi th this disagreeableforcing biuiin^s.

"The present Indian la w providesthat when a child i once enrol led In agovernment school itca n be removedto any Bchool within th e Uni ted Statesat the will< f thoao In authority. Thechi ldren can \n > picked up and carr iedncrofc.s the c o ntin en t w ith out any re-gard to homo lies or parental l o v e .The new policy will give the Indianstht* rlht to choose which Bchool theyrarr* toattend, which willundoubtedlyho tli* on? nir't home.

Ho huld yesterday: "Tho Indian inot r eady fur a polished educaClon. Hncous to bo tnuffht how to make a liv-ing, and to bi holpod u l m K in it. TheKiouti'Ht K > d In tho < > f th eIndian chi ldren will be the establish-raent o f district schoolj day schoolsfrom w h i c h the pupils ca n return homeeach evening, an

Frank Hullivun. intructor of tnr-iN'iitry and liidtiHlrliil jmwhuUh at thegovernment Indian hcl iuol at Yuma, nr-rlvd in ih city yesterday and regia:t < T * d at ..n Hamonn. He 1h anothero f th o Indian workers who welcometh o proposed change In th o governmentpolicy t owa rd thy r cdkln: and ton-ildornblo service In th e IndiiHirialbranches of schools In var ious jwru*of th o country makoa him competentto Kpcak on thoBubject.

Tho L ob Ango l c i Tliih'h pitblUhrnnniiitorviowwith Krunk Sullivan of theYuma Indian Bcuool, touching educa-tional matters an d Irrigation mat temjilnn. u rn (oIIuwh:

Irrigation fo r th e Y u m a Indians.

Nearly o m thotiHitnri vohbolh n rol o s t annually.

licheap at Riverside, how Is 2 r-ntwater A t Imperial?

IMPKRIAI,PRK39

Thn coming bOOtn Innot hero todayami Itwill nut bo her*! tomorrow, butho who him no faith that a period otvery btwy litmlnfnii nc-tlvlty, n r rom-pauled by a |MTiihit lv wouldbo If they didn't HtnndMill.

Th e human system c an endure heatof 21 2 degrees, the boiling point forwater, because tho Kkln is n bad c on -ductor, and because the perspirationcoola the body. M en have withstoodwithout injury n heat of throo hun-dred doprcos for several minutes.

Dr. Alpln. a roc