1875 FINANCE

THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE

1875 CIO OFFICE – ADVISORY TEAM

Morning Briefing – Thursday, July 26, 2018

“Facebook: the second FAANG casualty”

2

DAILY MARKET DATA

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 26.07.2018 07:58

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD Countries 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y Yield

US - DOW JONES 25'414 0.68% 2.81% Consumer Discretionary246.53 0.20% 2.99% USA 2.67% 2.84% 2.96%

US - S&P500 2'846 0.91% 6.45% Consumer Staples 224.03 -2.37% -8.46% Eurozone -0.61% -0.16% 0.41%

US - NASDAQ 7'932 1.17% 14.90% Energy 239.17 2.18% 1.76% Switzerland -0.82% -0.49% -0.11%

CANADA - TSX 16'421 0.19% 1.31% Financials 121.74 0.96% -1.71% UK 0.75% 1.02% 1.27%

MEXICO - IPC 49'604 0.28% 0.50% Healthcare 236.96 -0.55% -1.07% Sweden -0.56% -0.08% 0.50%

Industrials 252.05 1.06% -1.10% Canada 2.05% 2.20% 2.29%

Technology 245.13 -1.21% 5.08% Japan -0.13% -0.10% 0.08%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Materials 255.54 1.55% -1.85% Australia 2.07% 2.27% 2.69%

EUROPE - EURO STOXX 50 3'468 -0.43% -1.01% Telecom Services 67.19 -0.17% -6.27% China 3.07% 3.25% 3.53%

UK - FTSE 100 7'658 -0.66% -0.38% Utilities 129.15 0.03% -2.08% Turkish 19.30% 18.46% 16.93%

GERMANY - DAX 12'579 -0.87% -2.62%

FRANCE - CAC 40 5'426 -0.14% 2.14%

SWITZERLAND - SMI 9'019 0.15% -3.86% Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD

SPAIN - IBEX 9'703 -0.72% -3.39% VIX S&P 500 12.29 -0.97% 11.32% GLOBAL COMMODITY

ITALY - FTSE MIB 21'561 -1.43% -1.34% VXN Nasdaq 16.67 -2.69% 6.31% CRB Index 194.66 0.76% 0.41%

SWEDEN - OMX 1'593 -0.51% 1.04% VSTOXX Stoxx600 13.50 6.11% -0.06% ENERGY

V3VI SMI 12.50 1.07% 6.02% Crude Oil (WTI) USA 69.29 -0.01% 17.30%

Brent oil UK 74.31 0.51% 14.75%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Natural Gas 2.782 0.25% -0.89%

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 22'589 -0.11% -0.77% Price 1 Day YTD BASE METALS

CHINA - SHANGHAI COMP 2'889 -0.50% -12.64% EUR / USD 1.1732 0.03% -2.27% Aluminium 2062 -1.08% -9.08%

HONG KONG - HIS 28'719 -0.70% -4.01% EUR / CHF 1.1635 0.02% -0.58% Copper 6290 -0.08% -13.21%

SINGAPORE - STI 3'334 0.22% -2.02% EUR / GBP 0.8888 -0.04% 0.08% Zinc 2585 -1.19% -22.12%

EUR / SEK 10.2700 -0.01% 4.43% Cobalt 69750 0.00% -7.25%

EUR / TRY 5.6560 1.01% 24.40% Lithium 290.06 N/A 1.77%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD USD / CHF 0.9917 -0.02% 1.79% PRECIOUS METALS

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA 80'218 1.34% 4.99% USD / SEK 8.7537 -0.04% 6.97% Gold 1229.92 -0.14% -5.59%

RUSSIA - RTS 1'142 -0.18% -1.10% USD / JPY 110.7100 -0.24% -1.76% Silver 15.56 -0.31% -8.13%

INDIA - BSE SENSEX 37'001 0.39% 8.64% USD / TRY 4.8149 0.87% 26.77% Palladium 960.34 -0.60% -12.15%

TURKEY - BIST 100 95'369 3.51% -17.31% GBP / USD 1.3200 0.08% -2.32% Platinum 839.64 -0.56% -9.55%

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CARTOON OF THE DAY

Source: Hedgeye.com

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RELEVANT NEWS

Economy & FX

Companies

• Nasdaq 100 Futures Drop 0.8% in Asia; S&P 500 Little Changed

• Stocks Rally on U.S.-European Trade Agreement

• Asia Share Gains Fade After U.S.-EU Trade Optimism

Markets

Interesting articles

• What Does the Apparent Trump-EU Trade Truce Mean for China? link

• Facebook Growth Prospects Stalled by Scandal, Regulation link

• Qualcomm to Scrap NXP Deal as Deadline Passes for China Approval

• Facebook shares drop 24% in after-hours trading

• Alibaba Gains Most Since March: U.S.-Listed Chinese Companies

• U.S., EU Declare Trade Cease-Fire That Puts Auto Tariffs on Hold

• USD Falls to 2-Week Low as Senators Float Bill to Delay Tariffs

• Draghi to Mark Whatever-It-Takes Day by Confirming Exit Path

26.07.2018 08:33

Name Last Day chg %

Dow Jones fut 25428.00 0.10

S&P500 fut 2836.00 -0.18

Nasdaq fut 7410 -0.79

Eurostoxx 50 fut 3485 0.78

Dax fut 12710.50 1.28

CAC40 fut 5465 0.74

SMI fut 9054 0.81

Nikkei fut 22570 -0.13

Hang Seng fut 28641 -0.93

WTI Oil fut 69.30 0.00

Gold 1229.79 -0.15

EUR/USD 1.1734 0.04

GBP/USD 1.3198 0.07

EUR/CHF 1.1636 0.03

USD/CHF 0.9916 -0.03

US 10Y Yield 2.96 -0.01

CHF 10Y Yield -0.03 0.02

5

CHART OF THE DAY - EXTERNAL RESEARCH

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

“Losing Face” : Facebook’s revenue outlook sends shares plunging

SPI INDEX

SMI INDEX

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Tradseni index : New 52-week highs divided by the sum of the new highs plus the new lows red zone = overbought conditions

PUT/CALL ratio :. Ratio between the total volume of equity put options over call options, as reported at the end of the day red zone = oversold conditions

AAII US Bull Sentiment : The index reflect the sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months red zone = overbought conditions

US STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS

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COMPANIES RESULTS / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES

Analysts recommendations

Major companies results

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Upward Recommendations Downward Recommendations

Prada Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT HK$42 Swiss Life Downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 370 Francs

M6 Upgraded to Buy at SocGen; PT 21.60 Euros Spotify Downgraded to Hold at Pivotal; Price Target $200

Snap Upgraded to Mixed at Vertical Group Walmart Downgraded to Hold at Gordon Haskett

Europe EPS [e] US EPS [e] Japan EPS [e]

Sika AG 2.28 Praxair Inc 1.68 Matsui Securities Co Ltd

Airbus SE 0.6 Celgene Corp 2.113 Matsui Securities Co Ltd

Essilor International Cie Gene 1.96 Mastercard Inc 1.531 Canon Inc

Schneider Electric SE 2.01 Comcast Corp 0.604 Nisshin Seifun Group Inc 19.18

Orange SA 0.43 Marathon Petroleum Corp 2.034 Fujitsu Ltd -0.287

Nokia OYJ 0.04 American Airlines Group Inc 1.591 Kao Corp 128.8

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Xerox Corp 0.838 Nomura Holdings Inc 20.69

Roche Holding AG 9.06 CMS Energy Corp 0.399 Tokyo Electron Ltd 374.051

Nestle SA 1.798 S&P Global Inc 2.124 Fuji Electric Co Ltd

Telefonica SA CME Group Inc 1.723 Nissan Motor Co Ltd 25.188

Daimler AG 1.94 McDonald's Corp 1.93 Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 91.4

TOTAL SA 4.909 Western Digital Corp 3.511

Allegion PLC 1.193 Electronic Arts Inc 0.068

Cie de Saint-Gobain Intel Corp 0.964

L'Oreal SA 3.898 Expedia Group Inc 0.889

Amazon.com Inc 2.489

Starbucks Corp 0.607

VeriSign Inc 1.135

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 2.755

Discover Financial Services 1.878

Altria Group Inc 1.005

8

ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Time Country / Zone Event Period Survey Prior Relevance

01:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Jul 20 -- -5'600'000'000 Medium

01:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Jul 20 -- 601'400'000'000 Medium

01:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Jul 20 -- 653'600'000'000 Medium

01:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Jul 20 -- 273'000'000'000 Medium

02:50 JN PPI Services YoY Jun 1.00% 1.00% Medium

08:00 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Aug 11 11 Medium

08:45 FR Consumer Confidence Jul 98 97 High

10:00 IT Manufacturing Confidence Jul -- 107 High

10:00 IT Consumer Confidence Index Jul 116 116 High

10:00 IT Economic Sentiment Jul -- 105 Medium

13:45 EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate Jul 26 0.00% 0.00% High

13:45 EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility Jul 26 0.25% 0.25% High

13:45 EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate Jul 26 -0.40% -0.40% High

14:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Jun P -- 0.60% High

14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul 21 -- 207'000 High

14:30 US Continuing Claims Jul 14 -- 1'751'000 Medium

14:30 US Durable Goods Orders Jun P 3.00% -0.40% High

14:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Jun P 0.50% 0.00% Medium

15:00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Jul 20 -- 460'300'000'000 High

9

COMMODITIES FUTURES

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 26.07.2018 07:58

ALUMINIUM -1.18 SUGAR -26.19

ZINC -1.10 ZINC -22.17

GOLD -0.21 COPPER -13.89

WTI CRUDE OIL -0.03 SOYBEAN OIL -13.60

SUGAR - COFFEE -12.04

COFFEE 0.05 LIVE CATTLE -11.36

SILVER 0.11 ALUMINIUM -10.61

NAT GAS 0.22 SILVER -9.30

COTTON 0.32 SOYBEAN -7.59

GASOLINE 0.44 LEAN HOGS -7.49

BRENT CRUDE OIL 0.51 GOLD -6.12

NICKEL 0.58 NAT GAS -0.93

SOYBEAN OIL 0.60 CORN 3.99

LIVE CATTLE 0.90 NICKEL 7.00

COPPER 1.28 SOYBEAN MEAL 7.65

WHEAT 1.29 BRENT CRUDE OIL 11.13

LEAN HOGS 1.30 COTTON 13.29

CORN 1.53 WTI CRUDE OIL 14.66

SOYBEAN MEAL 1.97 GASOLINE 18.52

SOYBEAN 2.18 WHEAT 28.75

1D CHANGE (%) YTD CHANGE (%)

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SWISS STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Top 100 largest Swiss Companies

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 VIFOR PHARMA AG 50% 1 ARYZTA AG -63% 1 VIFOR PHARMA AG 56.9 1 SWISS RE AG 10.4

2 VP BANK AG 48% 2 MEYER BURGER TEC -58% 2 TEMENOS GROU-REG 54.4 2 ADECCO GROUP AG 10.7

3 LOGITECH INTER-R 41% 3 COMET HOLDING-R -40% 3 YPSOMED HOLD-REG 47.7 3 GAM HOLDING AG 10.9

4 KARDEX AG-REG 32% 4 RIETER HLDG-REG -36% 4 KUDELSKI SA-BR 47.5 4 SWISS LIFE H AG 11.1

5 SIEGFRIED HO-REG 31% 5 DORMAKABA HOLDIN -36% 5 STRAUMANN HLDG-R 42.1 5 AUTONEUM HOLDING 11.2

6 TEMENOS GROU-REG 28% 6 BURKHALTER HLDG -32% 6 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 41.6 6 HELVETIA HOL-REG 11.4

7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 25% 7 EFG INTERNAT AG -27% 7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 39.2 7 BELL FOOD GROUP 11.5

8 SONOVA HOLDING A 22% 8 HOCHDORF HOLDING -27% 8 BURCKHARDT COMPR 36.7 8 UBS GROUP AG 11.6

9 IMPLENIA AG-REG 19% 9 BELL FOOD GROUP -27% 9 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC 35.3 9 EFG INTERNAT AG 12.0

10 EMMI AG-REG 18% 10 BOBST GROUP -REG -27% 10 PANALPINA WE-REG 34.5 10 BALOISE HOL-REG 12.2

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 CEMBRA MONEY BAN 79 1 BELL FOOD GROUP 19 1 NEWRON PHARMACEU 157% 1 TEMENOS GROU-REG -18%

2 VIFOR PHARMA AG 78 2 GAM HOLDING AG 22 2 MEYER BURGER TEC 91% 2 VIFOR PHARMA AG -13%

3 LONZA GROUP -REG 77 3 HOCHDORF HOLDING 24 3 AMS AG 62% 3 TECAN GROUP AG-R -11%

4 ROCHE HLDG-GENUS 73 4 DORMAKABA HOLDIN 25 4 GAM HOLDING AG 36% 4 SIEGFRIED HO-REG -9%

5 KARDEX AG-REG 72 5 MEYER BURGER TEC 30 5 RIETER HLDG-REG 33% 5 LINDT&SPRUENGLI -9%

6 NOVARTIS AG-REG 70 6 JULIUS BAER GROU 31 6 COMET HOLDING-R 30% 6 YPSOMED HOLD-REG -8%

7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 70 7 VALORA HLDG -REG 35 7 EFG INTERNAT AG 29% 7 STRAUMANN HLDG-R -8%

8 SFS GROUP AG 68 8 RIETER HLDG-REG 35 8 KOMAX HOLDING-R 27% 8 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC -8%

9 SONOVA HOLDING A 68 9 VETROPACK HOL-BR 35 9 DORMAKABA HOLDIN 27% 9 SONOVA HOLDING A -5%

10 LOGITECH INTER-R 68 10 LEM HOLDING-REG 36 10 AUTONEUM HOLDING 27% 10 SCHINDLER HO-REG -5%

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EUROPEAN STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Euro Stoxx 50 index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 NOKIA OYJ 30% 1 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG -35% 1 HERMES 43.9 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 5.8

2 ASML HOLDING NV 27% 2 DEUTSCHE POST-RG -27% 2 ASML HOLDING NV 32.0 2 DAIMLER AG 6.6

3 AIRBUS SE 26% 3 SAINT GOBAIN -20% 3 ESSILOR INTL 31.7 3 BAYER MOTOREN WK 7.2

4 HERMES 25% 4 DAIMLER AG -18% 4 L'OREAL 29.8 4 SOC GENERALE SA 8.2

5 LVMH MOET HENNE 25% 5 ING GROEP NV -16% 5 INDITEX 24.9 5 AXA 8.4

6 SAFRAN SA 25% 6 AXA -15% 6 LVMH MOET HENNE 24.6 6 BBVA 8.5

7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 18% 7 BBVA -15% 7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 23.7 7 BNP PARIBAS 8.6

8 ENI SPA 18% 8 SOC GENERALE SA -15% 8 SAP SE 23.2 8 BANCO SANTANDER 9.6

9 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 17% 9 BNP PARIBAS -15% 9 VIVENDI 22.7 9 ING GROEP NV 9.7

10 TOTAL SA 15% 10 BANCO SANTANDER -14% 10 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 22.2 10 TELEFONICA 10.6

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 ANHEUSER-BUSCH I 76 1 SAINT GOBAIN 32 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 40% 1 HERMES -14%

2 SANOFI 71 2 ORANGE 33 2 SAINT GOBAIN 33% 2 SAFRAN SA -7%

3 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 69 3 INDITEX 36 3 BNP PARIBAS 32% 3 L'OREAL -4%

4 ESSILOR INTL 64 4 ENEL SPA 36 4 SOC GENERALE SA 30% 4 ESSILOR INTL -2%

5 ASML HOLDING NV 63 5 TELEFONICA 39 5 TELEFONICA 28% 5 KONINKLIJKE AHOL -2%

6 SAFRAN SA 63 6 VIVENDI 40 6 AXA 27% 6 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 0%

7 UNILEVER NV-CVA 61 7 BAYER AG-REG 41 7 DEUTSCHE POST-RG 27% 7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 3%

8 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 61 8 CRH PLC 41 8 BAYER AG-REG 26% 8 AIR LIQUIDE SA 4%

9 ING GROEP NV 59 9 IBERDROLA SA 43 9 INTESA SANPAOLO 26% 9 ASML HOLDING NV 4%

10 SIEMENS AG-REG 56 10 INTESA SANPAOLO 43 10 ING GROEP NV 24% 10 UNILEVER NV-CVA 5%

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US STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: S&P 500 Index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 AMAZON.COM INC 59% 1 GENERAL ELECTRIC -25% 1 AMAZON.COM INC 88.0 1 GENERAL MOTORS C 6.0

2 MASTERCARD INC-A 41% 2 KRAFT HEINZ CO/T -23% 2 CHARTER COMMUN-A 69.4 2 FORD MOTOR CO 7.0

3 TWENTY-FIRST - B 32% 3 AT&T INC -22% 3 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 39.0 3 AT&T INC 8.6

4 TWENTY-FIRST C-A 31% 4 PHILIP MORRIS IN -21% 4 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 35.3 4 METLIFE INC 8.8

5 CONOCOPHILLIPS 30% 5 ALTRIA GROUP INC -19% 5 MASTERCARD INC-A 33.8 5 CAPITAL ONE FINA 8.9

6 MICROSOFT CORP 30% 6 HALLIBURTON CO -19% 6 COSTCO WHOLESALE 31.6 6 CVS HEALTH CORP 9.6

7 VISA INC-CLASS A 25% 7 CHARTER COMMUN-A -18% 7 VISA INC-CLASS A 31.4 7 GOLDMAN SACHS GP 9.8

8 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 24% 8 COMCAST CORP-A -17% 8 NIKE INC -CL B 29.1 8 CELGENE CORP 10.3

9 NIKE INC -CL B 23% 9 CELGENE CORP -16% 9 MICROSOFT CORP 26.2 9 ALLSTATE CORP 10.5

10 FACEBOOK INC-A 23% 10 FORD MOTOR CO -15% 10 FACEBOOK INC-A 25.5 10 MORGAN STANLEY 10.6

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 BIOGEN INC 83 1 HALLIBURTON CO 22 1 HALLIBURTON CO 37% 1 TARGET CORP -4%

2 ELI LILLY & CO 81 2 FORD MOTOR CO 27 2 CHARTER COMMUN-A 35% 2 SOUTHERN CO -1%

3 COSTCO WHOLESALE 77 3 CHARTER COMMUN-A 32 3 GENERAL MOTORS C 31% 3 ELI LILLY & CO -1%

4 ALPHABET INC-C 77 4 GENERAL MOTORS C 33 4 CVS HEALTH CORP 30% 4 COSTCO WHOLESALE -1%

5 ALPHABET INC-A 76 5 AT&T INC 35 5 COMCAST CORP-A 29% 5 BIOGEN INC 0%

6 GILEAD SCIENCES 76 6 KRAFT HEINZ CO/T 37 6 CELGENE CORP 29% 6 BRISTOL-MYER SQB 0%

7 MICROSOFT CORP 75 7 GENERAL ELECTRIC 39 7 CATERPILLAR INC 23% 7 MASTERCARD INC-A 1%

8 UNITED PARCEL-B 74 8 TWENTY-FIRST C-A 42 8 AT&T INC 22% 8 AMGEN INC 2%

9 FACEBOOK INC-A 74 9 TWENTY-FIRST - B 42 9 GENERAL ELECTRIC 21% 9 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 2%

10 HONEYWELL INTL 73 10 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 42 10 DOWDUPONT INC 20% 10 TWENTY-FIRST - B 3%

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