170502-Meridian Chamber of Commerce - Zions Bank · 2020. 5. 29. · $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00...
Transcript of 170502-Meridian Chamber of Commerce - Zions Bank · 2020. 5. 29. · $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00...
ZionsBankEconomicOverviewMeridianChamberofCommerce
• May2,2017
National Economic Conditions
Dow20,000– TheTrumpBumpDowReachesNewHeightsFollowingU.S.PresidentialElection
Source:WallStreetJournal
CurrentLevelofConsumerConfidenceIndicatesEconomicProsperity
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Above110indicateseconomicprosperity
AprCCI=120.3
Source:TheConferenceBoard
ExpectationsofFutureInflationontheRise
NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex
Source:TradingEconomics
IrrationalExuberance?
DivergenceofSoftvsHardData
Why?
Thou
sand
sCumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession
Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData
Thou
sand
s
Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData
CumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Index
PeriodsfromValueScaledto100
2007Recession 2001Recession 1990Recession1981Recession 1980Recession 1973Recession
SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions
MixedMarchJobIndicators
Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 175,000 98,000UnemploymentRate 4.7% 4.5%PrivatePayrolls 200,000 89,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.3% 0.2%
YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.8% 2.7%
LaborForceParticipation 62.9% 63.0%
Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics
98,000JobsAddedinMarch
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
5002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
8.7MillionJobsLost
15.5MillionJobsRecovered
PayrollChange000’s
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
98,000JobsAddedinMarch
126
237 225
153
43
297 291
176
249
124
164 155
216 219
98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Janu
ary-16
February-16
March-16
April-16
May-16
June-16
July-16
August-16
Septem
ber-1
6
Octob
er-16
November-1
6
December-1
6
Janu
ary-17
February-17
March-17
PayrollChange000’s
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
NationalEmploymentChangePercentChangeinNationalEmploymentbyIndustry:Mar2016toMar2017
0.7% 0.9%
1.7% 2.3%
3.2% 2.2%
-1.2% 0.7%
0.3% 2.6%
0.4%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:1.5%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics;seasonallyadjusted
NationalEmploymentChangeTotalChangeinNumberofJobsbyIndustryinThousands:Mar2016toMar2017
15254
258527
639178
-32 192
37177
3
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics;seasonallyadjusted
UnemploymentRateIndicatesFullEmployment
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5.0%=FullEmployment
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
UnemployedandDiscouragedWorkersDownfromLastMonth
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
U-6(Underemployed) U-3(Unemployment)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
4.4
7.1
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Mar200067.3%
Apr197863.0%
Mar201763.0%
%
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Seasonallyadjusted
LaborForceParticipationAmongLowestLevelinAlmost40Years
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Seasonallyadjusted
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
63.0
%
LaborForceParticipationIncreasingSlightly
CivilianLaborForceParticipationRateMalevsFemale
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
2014
Men Women
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
ParticipationAmongWomenAged25-34HasSurged
YearlyWageGrowthDownSlightlyinMarch
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Mar.20172.7%
2007-2016Average=2.4%
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Growthratecalculatedusingrealchained1982-1984dollars
ProducerPriceIndexRisingSlightlyinMarch
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.02011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year-to-YearChange
Percen
t
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics;notseasonallyadjusted
-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%
Sept2011
Dec2
011
Mar2012
Jun2012
Sept2012
Dec2
012
Mar2013
Jun2013
Sept2013
Dec2
013
Mar2014
Jun2014
Sept2014
Dec2
014
Mar2015
Jun2015
Sep2015
Dec2
015
Mar2016
June2016
Sep2016
Dec2
016
Mar2017
U.S.ConsumerPriceIndexYearlyChangeRate
InflationAboveFedTargetButBelowExpectationsinMarch
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
GrowthinConsumerSpendingUnderPar
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
52006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Percent
PersonalConsumptionExpenditureYearlyPercentChange
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
ConsumersDriveGrowthinGDP
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GovernmentInventoriesNetExportsFixedInvestmentPersonalConsumptionRealGDPGrowth
Q12017GDP0.7%
TheU.S.DollarisStrong
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
TradeWeightedU.S.DollarIndex:Broad1973=100
Source:FederalReserve
EurocomparedtoU.S.Dollar
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
PARITY
1.06
1.39
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2010Chinaallowstheyuantorise
Aug2015China
devaluestheyuanbylargestamountin20years
2001ChinajoinsWTO 2005
Chinaallowstheyuantorise
2008China
stopstheyuan’srise
U.S.DollarComparedtoChineseYuan
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
BritishPoundDroppedtoNewLowFollowingBrexit Vote
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
BrexitVote
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OilPrices ActiveOilRigs
Source:BakerHughesandU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationNote:Totalcountincludesoilandgasrigs
U.S.TotalRigCountRecoveringfromLowasOilPricesRise
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source:U.S.FederalReserve
FederalFundsTargetRateSees3nd IncreaseinOveraDecade
FederalFundsTargetRate=1.0
March2017FedRateIncreaseProjections
Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve
1.4%
2.1%
3.0% 3.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2017 2018 2019 LongRun
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Idaho Economic Conditions
PercentChange:2015to2016U.S.Rate=0.7%
PopulationLoss
0.7%to1.4%(atoraboveU.S.rate)0.2%to0.6%
1.5%ormore
0.0%to0.1%
NM0.0%
UT2.0%
AZ1.7%
CA0.7%
NV2.0%
OR1.7%
TX1.6%
OK0.4%
CO1.7%
WA1.8%
ID1.8%
MT1.0%
WY-0.2%
ND0.1%
SD0.9%
MN0.7%
NE0.7%
KS0.3%
IA0.4%
MO0.3%
AR0.3%
LA0.3%
WI0.2%
IL-0.3%
IN0.3%
OH0.1%
FL1.8%
TN 0.9%
KY 0.3%
MS0.0%
AL0.2%
GA1.1%
SC1.4%
NC 1.1%
VA0.5%
WV-0.5%
PA-0.1%
NY0.0%
ME0.2%
AK0.6%
HI0.2%
MA0.4%
VT-0.2%
NH0.4%
RI0.1%
CT-0.2%
NJ0.1%
DE0.8%
MD0.4%
MI0.1%
DC1.6%
KS0.0%
IdahoPopulation3rd Fastest GrowinginU.S.
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,0001981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation
10,296
18,869
1,683,140
IdahoPopulationandComponentsofChange
Source:ZionsBankanalysisofU.S.CensusBureaudata
TotalPop
ulation
ComponentsofPopulationChange
IdahoPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty
2015to2016StateAverage=1.8%
Increaseof1.0%to1.7%
Increaseof0.0%to0.9%
Increaseof3.0%orGreater
Increaseof1.8%to2.9%
PopulationLoss
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
Jerome1.2%
Jefferson2.5%
Idaho-0.6%
Gooding-0.1%
Gem1.6%
Fremont1.0%
Franklin2.9%
Elmore0.9%
Custer0.2%
Clearwater0.2%
Washington2.1%
Clark-1.4%
Valley4.1%
Cassia0.0%
Twin Falls1.7%
Caribou1.8%
Teton3.7%Canyon
2.2%
Shoshone0.0%
Camas0.7%
Power0.4%
Butte0.0%
Payette0.8%
Boundary3.1%
Owyhee0.7%
Bonneville2.0%
Bonner1.8%
Nez Perce0.6%
Boise1.6%
Minidoka1.1%
Blaine1.1%
Madison2.5%
Bingham0.5%Lincoln
-0.7%
Benewah0.6%
Lewis1.6%
Bear Lake0.7%
Lemhi-0.4%
Bannock0.6%
Latah1.2%
Adams1.6%
Kootenai2.6%
Ada2.4%
Oneida1.3%
PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:March2016toMarch2017U.S.Rate=1.5%
Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics
IdahoEmploymentGrowth6thintheNation
Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics
NM0.9%
UT3.2%
AZ2.0%
CA2.1%
NV3.0%
OR2.2%
TX2.1%
OK-0.1%
CO1.9%
ID2.7%
MT2.1%
WY-2.1%
ND-0.3%
SD1.6%
MN1.5%
NE0.9%
KS0.3%
IA0.5%
MO1.4%
AR1.1%
LA-0.1%
WI0.9%
IL0.4%
IN1.5%
OH0.7%
FL3.0%
TN 2.2%
KY1.5%
MS0.0%
AL1.4%
GA3.0%
SC1.8%
NC 1.6%
VA1.2%
WV-0.8%
PA1.0%
NY1.2%
ME0.9%
AK-2.1%
HI0.7%
MA1.4%
VT0.9%
RI0.8%
CT0.1%
NJ1.2%
DE0.8%
MD1.6%
MI1.9%
DC0.8%
Loss
1.6%to1.9%(atorabovetheU.S.rate)2.0%ormore
1.0%to1.5%0.0%to0.9%
WA2.9%
400
500
600
700
8001995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Thou
sand
sofEmployees
TotalNonfarmEmployment
Lossof59,000jobsfrom2007- 2010
Gainof110,100jobssincelow
in2010
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,TotalnonfarmseasonallyadjustedNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand
IdahoTotalEmploymentatNewHighs
Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor
PercentChangeinIdahoEmploymentbyIndustry:March2016– March2017
2.6% 2.5%
1.7% 3.7%
2.7% 4.5% 4.5%
1.5% 1.9%
5.2% -3.0%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
IdahoEmploymentGainsandLossesbyIndustry
Total:2.6%
3,200600
1,2003,700
2,3001,500
4002,000
1,2002,000
-100
-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:18,000
Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor
IdahoEmploymentGainsandLossesbyIndustry
TotalChangeinIdahoEmploymentbyIndustry:March 2016 – March 2017
IdahoEmploymentChangeRatesByCounty
March2016toMarch2017StateRate=2.7%
Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor,SeasonallyAdjustedTotalNonfarmEmployment
1.0%to2.6%
0.0%to0.9%
4.0%ormore
2.7%to3.9%
Loss
Jefferson2.3%
Jerome 2.8%
Idaho-0.4%
Gooding1.4%
Gem2.3%
Fremont4.7%
Franklin1.3%
Elmore-1.6%
Custer0.2%
Clearwater-2.3%
Washington0.45% Clark
-2.4%
Valley0.5%
Cassia1.1%
Twin Falls2.1%
Caribou0.6%
Teton0.9%Canyon
2.7%
Shoshone1.7%
Camas1.6%
Power0.2%
Butte2.33%
Payette1.6%
Boundary-1.1%
Owyhee0.7%
Bonneville2.5%
Bonner4.9%
Nez Perce2.8%
Boise2.8%
Minidoka1.1%
Blaine1.0%
Madison5.4%
Bingham4.1%Lincoln
0.8%
Benewah-1.2%
Lewis-0.55%
Bear Lake-1.9%
Lemhi2.0%
Bannock-2.0%
Latah3.9%
Adams4.2%
Kootenai2.3%
Ada2.8%
Oneida2.3%
March2017U.S.Rate=4.5%
HI2.8%
NH2.7%
NM6.8%
UT3.1%
AZ5.1%
CA5.0%
NV4.9%
OR4.0%
TX4.9%
OK4.6%
CO2.9%
WA4.9%
ID3.6%
MT3.8%
WY4.7%
ND2.9%
SD2.8%
MN4.0%
NE3.2%
KS4.0%
IA3.2%
MO4.1%
AR3.7%
LA5.8%
WI3.7%
IL5.4%
IN4.1%
OH5.1%
FL5.0%
TN 5.3%
KY4.9%
MS5.2%
AL6.2%
GA5.3%
SC4.4%
NC 5.1%
VA3.9%
WV5.2%
PA5.0%
NY4.4%
ME3.2%
AK6.4%
MA3.4%
VT3.0%
RI4.5%
CT4.7%
NJ4.4%
DE4.5%
MD4.2%
MI5.3%
DC5.7%
6.0%ormore
4.0%to4.7%(atorbelowU.S.rate)4.8%to5.4%
3.9%orless
5.5%to5.9%
Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics
IDUnemploymentRates12th LowestintheNation
NH2.8%
NM6.7%
UT3.1%
AZ5.0%
CA4.9%
NV4.8%
OR3.8%
TX5.0%
OK4.3%
CO2.6%
WA4.7%
ID3.5%
MT3.8%
WY4.5%
ND2.8%
SD2.8%
MN3.8%
NE3.1%
KS3.8%
IA3.1%
MO3.9%
AR3.6%
LA5.7%
WI3.4%
IL4.9%
IN3.9%
OH5.1%
FL4.8%
TN 5.1%
KY5.0%
MS5.0%
AL5.8%
GA5.1%
SC4.4%
NC 4.9%
VA3.8%
WV4.9%
PA4.8%
NY4.3%
ME3.0%
AK6.4%
MA3.6%
VT3.0%
RI4.3%
CT4.8%
NJ4.2%
DE4.5%
MD4.3%
MI5.1%
DC5.8%
IdahoUnemployment
RatesByCounty
March2017StateRate=3.5%
3.7%to5.9%
6.0%to6.9%
3.0%orlower
3.1%to3.6%
7.0%orgreater
Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor
Jerome3.1%
Jefferson2.7%
Idaho5.5%
Gooding2.8%
Gem4.2%
Fremont2,8%
Franklin2.7%
Elmore4.1%
Custer4.5%
Clearwater9.0%
Washington5.6% Clark
2.0%
Valley5.1%
Cassia2.7%
Twin Falls3.2%
Caribou3.7%
Teton3.0%Canyon
3.9
Shoshone7.0%
Camas3.1%
Power3.6%
Butte3.5%
Payette6.0%
Boundary5.5%
Owyhee4.2%
Bonneville2.9%
Bonner5.0%
Nez Perce3.1%
Boise5.4%
Minidoka2.9%
Blaine2.8%
Madison2.1%
Bingham3.4%Lincoln
4.2%
Benewah6.9%
Lewis7.0%%
Bear Lake3.4%
Lemhi6.0%
Bannock3.3%
Latah3.2%
Adams7.1%
Kootenai4.3%
Ada3.0%
Oneida3.0%
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
PercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2015–2016U.S.=3.6%;ID=3.6% NH
4.7%
NM2.1%
UT5.6%
AZ4.3%
CA4.5%
NV5.9%
OR4.5%
TX2.9%
OK0.6%
CO3.9%
WA4.8%
ID3.6%
MT2.3%
WY-1.7%
ND-1.5%
SD1.2%
MN3.0%
NE2.8%
KS2.8%
IA2.3%
MO3.5%
AR3.2%
LA1.5%
WI3.1%
IL3.1%
IN3.9%
OH3.0%
FL4.9%
TN 3.9%
KY2.6%
MS3.2%
AL3.3%
GA4.8%
SC4.4%
NC 4.1%
VA3.6%
WV1.0%
PA2.9%
NY2.9%
ME3.7%
AK-1.0%
HI4.5%
MA4.3%
VT3.3%
RI3.1%
CT3.0%
NJ3.2%
DE2.9%
MD3.7%
MI3.6%
DC4.5%
3.6%to3.9%(atorabovetheU.S.rate)2.0%to3.5%
4.0%ormore
0.0%to1.9%Decrease
IDPersonalIncomeGrowthSameasNationalAverage
Construction
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,0002000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Idaho U.S.
IdahoMedianHomeSalePricesReachingApproachingPre-RecessionHighs
Source:Graphiq.comreportingdatafromCoreLogic
00.20.40.60.81
1.21.41.61.8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Percentageoftotalhomesinforeclosureprocess
U.S. Idaho
IdahoMaintainsLowerPercentageofForeclosuresthanNation
Source:Graphiq.com
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015f
Single-FamilyUnits Multifamily Total
Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerceandU.S.CensusBureau
IdahoResidentialConstructionActivitySlowlyClimbing
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,5001995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
Millions
SingleFamilyUnits MultiFamilyUnits Total
IdahoValueofNewResidentialConstructionIncreasing
Meridian
MeridianAtaGlance
• Population– 90,739• Unemployment– 3.0%• MedianIncome- $54,746• MedianHomeValue- $213,100• MedianGrossRent- $987• LargestEmployers
• BlueCross• Scentsy
• Forbesbestplacestoretire– 2016
MeridianisExperiencingExplosiveGrowth
ManufacturingandConstructionLeadJobsinMeridian
MeridianUnemploymentDropping
HousingPricesIncreasinginMeridian
Sources:IdahoDivisionofFinancialManagementandMoody’sEconomy.com e=estimatef=forecast
3.4
4.9
3.9
1.9
1.4
12
4.4
3.8
1.8
1.5
23.8
3
3.8
3.1
1.4
0 5 10 15 20 25
HousingStarts
PersonalIncome
UnemploymentRate
NonfarmEmployment
Population
2016 2017f 2018f
IdahoEconomicIndicators2016-2018
RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer
Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394
ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.
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