150930 Population Effect on Labor Force by Age Group

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Factored Population Effect On Labour Force - Contribution By Age Group August 2000 to August 2015 ACTUAL BLS Data 16-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54 % 55-64 % 65+ % Note that ONLY 55+ have ADDED to the labour force contribution rate, all others have dropped

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A chart of the effect of population shifts and Labor Force Participation - WHERE is the real drop from 2000?

Transcript of 150930 Population Effect on Labor Force by Age Group

Page 1: 150930 Population Effect on Labor Force by Age Group

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Factored Population Effect On Labour Force - Contribution By Age GroupAugust 2000 to August 2015 ACTUAL BLS Data

16-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54 % 55-64 % 65+ %

Note that ONLY 55+ have ADDED to the labour force contribution rate, all others have dropped

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Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Generated on: September 30, 2015 (11:12:04 AM)

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population SurveyOriginal Data Value

BLS ACTUAL NUMBERS FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSYear Total Pop Total LF 16-24 Pop 16-24 LF 25-34 Pop 25-34 LF 35-44 Pop 35-44 LF

2000 212,916 143,171 34,204 23,559 38,704 32,642 44,369 37,404

2001 215,420 143,826 34,856 22,990 38,431 32,223 44,249 37,169

2002 217,866 145,565 35,342 23,342 38,501 32,179 43,859 36,652

2003 221,507 146,967 35,938 22,905 39,048 32,253 43,709 36,538

2004 223,677 148,166 36,444 23,246 38,960 32,174 43,192 36,006

2005 226,421 150,469 36,707 23,333 39,095 32,291 42,989 35,933

2006 229,167 152,465 37,008 23,634 39,266 32,464 42,726 35,885

2007 232,211 153,493 37,455 22,801 39,819 33,142 42,361 35,406

2008 234,107 155,387 37,526 23,086 40,074 33,462 41,632 34,969

2009 236,087 154,897 37,594 22,274 40,347 33,390 40,844 34,208

2010 238,099 154,678 37,945 21,964 40,989 33,622 40,045 33,147

2011 239,871 154,344 38,199 21,887 41,457 33,912 39,465 32,494

2012 243,566 155,255 38,800 21,842 41,034 33,356 39,636 32,691

2013 245,959 155,971 38,841 22,089 41,630 33,749 39,599 32,560

2014 248,229 156,434 38,706 21,816 42,200 34,315 39,561 32,450

2015 251,096 157,390 38,556 21,967 42,849 34,505 39,711 32,571

BLS ACTUAL LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSYear 16-24 Part 25-34 Part 35-44 Part 45-54 Part 55-64 Part 65+ Part Total Part All data is the population labour force divided by the population for that age group

2000 68.9% 84.3% 84.3% 81.8% 59.1% 12.8% 67.2%2001 66.0% 83.8% 84.0% 81.7% 60.0% 13.1% 66.8%2002 66.0% 83.6% 83.6% 81.7% 61.5% 13.3% 66.8%2003 63.7% 82.6% 83.6% 81.9% 61.9% 13.9% 66.3%2004 63.8% 82.6% 83.4% 81.5% 61.9% 14.5% 66.2%2005 63.6% 82.6% 83.6% 82.0% 62.9% 15.0% 66.5%2006 63.9% 82.7% 84.0% 81.7% 63.3% 15.2% 66.5%2007 60.9% 83.2% 83.6% 81.7% 63.5% 15.9% 66.1%2008 61.5% 83.5% 84.0% 81.7% 64.0% 17.2% 66.4%2009 59.2% 82.8% 83.8% 81.3% 64.1% 17.3% 65.6%

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Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Generated on: September 30, 2015 (11:12:04 AM)

2010 57.9% 82.0% 82.8% 80.9% 64.8% 17.4% 65.0%2011 57.3% 81.8% 82.3% 80.5% 64.0% 17.5% 64.3%2012 56.3% 81.3% 82.5% 80.4% 64.0% 18.3% 63.7%2013 56.9% 81.1% 82.2% 79.6% 64.1% 18.7% 63.4%2014 56.4% 81.3% 82.0% 79.8% 63.9% 18.3% 63.0%2015 57.0% 80.5% 82.0% 79.3% 63.3% 18.8% 62.7%

BLS ACTUAL POPULATION PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSYear 16-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54 % 55-64 % 65+ % Total All columns to the left summed

2000 16.1% 18.2% 20.8% 17.7% 11.4% 15.7% 100.0%2001 16.2% 17.8% 20.5% 18.1% 11.7% 15.6% 100.0%2002 16.2% 17.7% 20.1% 18.3% 12.2% 15.5% 100.0%2003 16.2% 17.6% 19.7% 18.3% 12.6% 15.5% 100.0%2004 16.3% 17.4% 19.3% 18.5% 13.0% 15.5% 100.0%2005 16.2% 17.3% 19.0% 18.6% 13.4% 15.5% 100.0%2006 16.1% 17.1% 18.6% 18.8% 13.8% 15.6% 100.0%2007 16.1% 17.1% 18.2% 18.8% 14.1% 15.6% 100.0%2008 16.0% 17.1% 17.8% 18.8% 14.3% 15.9% 100.0%2009 15.9% 17.1% 17.3% 18.8% 14.7% 16.1% 100.0%2010 15.9% 17.2% 16.8% 18.6% 15.1% 16.3% 100.0%2011 15.9% 17.3% 16.5% 18.3% 15.5% 16.6% 100.0%2012 15.9% 16.8% 16.3% 17.9% 15.8% 17.3% 100.0%2013 15.8% 16.9% 16.1% 17.6% 15.9% 17.7% 100.0%2014 15.6% 17.0% 15.9% 17.2% 16.1% 18.2% 100.0%2015 15.4% 17.1% 15.8% 17.0% 16.2% 18.6% 100.0%

BLS FACTORED PARTICIPATION PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSYear 16-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54 % 55-64 % 65+ % Total All columns to the left summed

2000 11.1% 15.3% 17.6% 14.5% 6.8% 2.0% 67.2% 67.2%2001 10.7% 15.0% 17.3% 14.8% 7.0% 2.0% 66.8% 66.8%2002 10.7% 14.8% 16.8% 14.9% 7.5% 2.1% 66.8% 66.8%2003 10.3% 14.6% 16.5% 15.0% 7.8% 2.1% 66.3% 66.3%

THE TABLE BELOW TAKES THE POPULATION AGE GROUP PARTICIPATION % AND MULTIPLIES IT BY THE POPULATION % OF THE TOTAL POPULATION TO GET THAT GROUPS CONTRIBUTION TO THE OVERALL PARTICIPATION %

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Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Generated on: September 30, 2015 (11:12:04 AM)

2004 10.4% 14.4% 16.1% 15.1% 8.0% 2.3% 66.2% 66.2%2005 10.3% 14.3% 15.9% 15.3% 8.4% 2.3% 66.5% 66.5%2006 10.3% 14.2% 15.7% 15.3% 8.7% 2.4% 66.5% 66.5%2007 9.8% 14.3% 15.2% 15.3% 8.9% 2.5% 66.1% 66.1%2008 9.9% 14.3% 14.9% 15.4% 9.2% 2.7% 66.4% 66.4%2009 9.4% 14.1% 14.5% 15.3% 9.5% 2.8% 65.6% 65.6%2010 9.2% 14.1% 13.9% 15.1% 9.8% 2.8% 65.0% 65.0%2011 9.1% 14.1% 13.5% 14.7% 9.9% 2.9% 64.3% 64.3%2012 9.0% 13.7% 13.4% 14.4% 10.1% 3.2% 63.7% 63.7%2013 9.0% 13.7% 13.2% 14.0% 10.2% 3.3% 63.4% 63.4%2014 8.8% 13.8% 13.1% 13.8% 10.3% 3.3% 63.0% 63.0%2015 8.7% 13.7% 13.0% 13.5% 10.3% 3.5% 62.7% 62.7%

Proof ColumnTakes total labour force participation from actual table above (lines 21 to 38) to validate the formulas.

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Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Generated on: September 30, 2015 (11:12:04 AM)

45-54 Pop 45-54 LF 55-64 Pop 55-64 LF 65+ Pop 65+ LF

37,774 30,883 24,334 14,391 33,531 4,293

39,060 31,923 25,180 15,106 33,644 4,415

39,840 32,563 26,560 16,336 33,763 4,494

40,622 33,261 27,897 17,258 34,293 4,751

41,343 33,703 29,083 17,998 34,654 5,039

42,187 34,587 30,294 19,068 35,149 5,257

42,981 35,111 31,514 19,940 35,671 5,432

43,612 35,611 32,674 20,751 36,290 5,783

44,036 35,987 33,592 21,493 37,247 6,390

44,426 36,126 34,816 22,330 38,059 6,567

44,304 35,853 36,026 23,341 38,791 6,751

43,834 35,288 37,137 23,784 39,778 6,980

43,639 35,081 38,375 24,579 42,082 7,705

43,180 34,368 39,102 25,046 43,607 8,158

42,787 34,160 39,858 25,452 45,116 8,241

42,650 33,842 40,688 25,753 46,642 8,751

BLS ACTUAL LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSAll data is the population labour force divided by the population for that age group

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Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Generated on: September 30, 2015 (11:12:04 AM)

BLS ACTUAL POPULATION PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSAll columns to the left summed

BLS FACTORED PARTICIPATION PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALL YEARSAll columns to the left summed

THE TABLE BELOW TAKES THE POPULATION AGE GROUP PARTICIPATION % AND MULTIPLIES IT BY THE POPULATION % OF THE TOTAL POPULATION TO