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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Wednesday, 15 April 2015

.Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price 1st

Target

IQCD 139.90 144.00

GISS 83.50 87.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,777.91 -0.4 8.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,960 12,000 12,100

Support 11,760 11,700 11,500

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index dropped slightly, approaching the 11,700 strong support level. The daily chart suggests further weakness to come, yet the intraday chart is indicating stability around these levels. Thus, we have to await a substantial break with high volumes above the 12,000 or below 11,700 levels to have a clearer view on the upcoming direction for the Index. Expected Resistance Level: 12,000 Expected Support Level: 11,700

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 14 Apr 15 13 Apr 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 383.7 491.6 -21.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 633.8 636.0 -0.3

Volume (mn) 7.1 9.8 -27.6

Number of Trans. 4,518 5,790 -22.0

Companies Traded 38 40 -5.0

Market Breadth 11:25 4:34 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,301.95 -0.4 50.6

All Share Index 3,145.64 -0.4 49.4

Banks 3,162.90 -0.2 47.2

Industrials 3,845.80 -0.9 44.9

Transportation 2,407.05 -0.3 45.4

Real Estate 2,518.75 0.0 61.6

Insurance 4,049.42 -0.6 46.0

Telecoms 1,336.22 -0.3 47.8

Consumer 7,025.91 -0.4 51.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,403.94 -0.2 57.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 139.90 0.07 85,369

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 141.00 144.00 146.00

Support 139.00 136.50 134.50

Commentary

Overview: The name stabilized at the downtrend line (denoted in red) on the daily chart which is acting as a support level. Stock could bounce up after a three-day losing streak. This bounce might be short lived and as a result, we recommend this trade for the short-term traders. Expected Target Price: QR144.00 – QR146.00 A break above QR141.00 is needed to trigger the short-term buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR138.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 83.50 -3.13 2,694,195

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 85.40 87.50 89.50

Support 82.00 77.70 67.00

Commentary

Overview: GISS could be stabilizing just above the QR82.00 after the harsh drop it exhibited over the past two sessions. It should be noted that another drop below this important support may have extreme negative effects on the name. That been said, risk takers can buy the name for the expected short-term bounce. Expected Target Price: QR87.50 – QR89.50 A break above QR85.40 is needed to trigger the short-term buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR82.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,777.91 11,720.24 11,745.49 11,761.09 11,786.35 11,811.60 11,827.20 11,852.46 12,081.31 12,178.26 12,781.63

Total Return 18,301.95 18,212.34 18,251.58 18,275.82 18,315.06 18,354.30 18,378.54 18,417.78 18,459.73 18,384.04 19,173.82

All Share 3,145.64 3,133.42 3,139.18 3,142.73 3,148.49 3,154.25 3,157.80 3,163.56 3,183.11 3,161.06 3,273.51

Al Rayan Islamic 4,403.94 4,373.35 4,386.00 4,393.81 4,406.45 4,419.10 4,426.91 4,439.55 4,348.89 4,237.87 4,380.24

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 48.00 47.33 47.58 47.74 47.98 48.23 48.39 48.63 47.53 46.35 49.95

CBQK 56.40 55.67 55.90 56.04 56.27 56.50 56.64 56.87 60.71 61.43 62.59

DHBK 51.40 50.73 50.96 51.10 51.33 51.56 51.70 51.93 54.21 55.49 57.26

QIBK 101.30 98.43 99.39 99.98 100.93 101.89 102.48 103.43 102.72 102.47 105.98

QIIK 79.30 78.23 78.77 79.10 79.63 80.17 80.50 81.03 83.10 81.80 84.03

Insurance

QATI 76.90 76.77 76.84 76.89 76.97 77.04 77.09 77.17 78.46 76.83 79.32

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 150.40 144.20 146.64 148.16 150.60 153.04 154.56 157.00 144.54 132.53 125.17

Industrials

IQCD 139.90 139.03 139.30 139.47 139.73 140.00 140.17 140.43 145.07 156.58 170.96

QEWS 191.30 189.23 190.15 190.72 191.63 192.55 193.12 194.03 191.16 189.57 187.99

GISS 83.50 80.37 81.63 82.41 83.67 84.93 85.71 86.97 95.70 96.52 106.52

QIGD 41.50 40.10 40.52 40.78 41.20 41.62 41.88 42.30 41.31 40.88 48.03

Real Estate

BRES 46.90 46.10 46.37 46.53 46.80 47.07 47.23 47.50 47.58 45.75 43.78

UDCD 21.18 20.83 20.96 21.04 21.18 21.31 21.39 21.53 23.07 23.66 25.67

ERES 16.65 16.44 16.52 16.57 16.66 16.74 16.79 16.88 16.07 15.78 17.96

MRDS 18.74 18.45 18.56 18.63 18.75 18.86 18.93 19.05 19.26 19.47 20.81

Telecommunication

ORDS 101.40 99.80 100.37 100.73 101.30 101.87 102.23 102.80 108.56 112.70 120.53

VFQS 17.53 17.30 17.43 17.51 17.65 17.78 17.86 18.00 17.59 16.79 18.49

Transportation

QGTS 22.55 22.32 22.41 22.47 22.57 22.66 22.72 22.82 23.67 23.35 23.64

QNNS 97.50 95.97 96.85 97.39 98.27 99.15 99.69 100.57 103.03 100.01 97.86 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025

saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary

Head of HNI Head of Sales Trading – Institutions

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548

sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.