140523 Gdp Econometrics

8/12/2019 140523 Gdp Econometrics

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EKONOMIKA IR VADYBA: 2011. 16 ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT: 2011. 16

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

AND ITS FACTORS IN LITHUANIA

Viktorija Bobinaite1, Aldona Juozapaviciene2, Inga Konstantinaviciute3

1Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania, [email protected]

Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania, [email protected] Energy Institute, Lithuania, [email protected]

Abstract

Analysis of the interrelationship between Lithuanian GDP at previous year prices and its factors(capital, energy, land and labour) during 1995-2009 has been performed in the paper. Univariate andmultivariate regression have been the main method employed to set the interrelationships between theselected variables. The results of the regression analysis have showed that development of fixed capitalconsumption might well describe the changes of GDP in Lithuania. An increase of consumption of fixedcapital by 1 million LTL might improve Lithuanian GDP by 8.3 million LTL. Other factors that have notbeen included in the model have reduced GDP by 13062.6 million LTL. Fixed capital consumption couldexplain 91.54% of development of Lithuanian GDP. Model, which has been calculated considering thesegregation of gross inland energy consumption according to types of fuel and energy, has showed that bothfixed capital consumption and consumption of indigenous resources, nuclear energy, natural gas and oilproducts might explain development of Lithuanian GDP. In the model all coefficients of variables, except acoefficient of nuclear energy, have been found to be positive. A negative effect of nuclear energy on GDPmight appear through the impact of nuclear energy consumption on households consumption expenditure.The results have told that Lithuanian GDP has been sensitive over consumption of indigenous resources,including renewable energy sources, as well over consumption of natural gas. An increase of indigenousresources by 1 ktoe might improve GDP by 82.6 million LTL and an increase of natural gas by 1 ktoe couldaugment GDP by 13.9 million LTL. An effect of indigenous resources and natural gas on GDP might passthrough these resources effect on gross capital formation. Net exports of goods and services have beeninfluenced by consumption of natural gas and oil products. The higher the countrys dependency onconsumption of natural gas and oil products the worse volume of net exports of good and services.

Keywords: economic growth, gross domestic product, energy consumption, land, capital, labour,regression.

JEL Classification: E21, E22, E23, O11, O41, O43.

Introduction

Scientific literature is numerous of theoretical and empirical research about development of grossdomestic product (further in the text GDP). Scientists (Abu-Bader & Abu-Qarn, 2003; Yanikkaya, 2003;Hsiao & Hsiao, 2006; ekut & Tvaronaviius, 2007; Dutt & Ros, 2007; Herranz-Loncn, 2007;Mahadevan & Asafu-Adjaye, 2007; Ang, 2008; Christiaans, 2008; Lapinskien & Peleckis, 2009;Lapinskien& Tvaronaviien, 2009; Laktutien, 2009; Snieska & Simkunaite, 2009; Karazijiene, 2009;Wu et al.,2010; Wei & Hao, 2010; Zilinske, 2010; Kilijoniene et al.,2010; Sharma, 2010; Hassan, 2011;Lee, 2011; Roa et al.,2011) have found various reasons for GDP to change and economy to grow. Somescientists (Ang, 2008; Laktutien, 2009; Hassan, 2011) argue that financial development is an importantdeterminant for economy to grow. Well-functioning financial system promotes private saving and private

investment and leads to higher economic growth through the improved efficiency of investment. Althoughthese scientists have agreed that efficient financial system is necessary, however they have emphasized thatthis is not a sufficient condition to reach a stable economic growth. Other variables such as governmentexpenditure (Abu-Bader & Abu-Qarn, 2003; Wu et al.,2010), public sector borrowing (Karazijiene, 2009),foreign direct investment (Hsiao & Hsiao, 2006; ekut& Tvaronaviius, 2007; Zilinske, 2010), investmentin infrastructure (Herranz-Loncn, 2007; Snieska & Simkunaite, 2009), demographic factors (Wei & Hao,2010; Roa et al.,2011), labour market characteristics (Roa et al.,2011), aggregate demand shocks (Dutt &Ros, 2007), inflation (Hung, 2003; Valdovinos, 2003; Mahadevan & Asafu-Adjaye, 2007), energy prices(Adjaye, 2000; Lee & Chu, 2011), trade (Yanikkaya, 2003; Hsiao & Hsiao, 2006; Christiaans, 2008; Lee,2011) and other might play an important role in explaining development of GDP. Considering trade,interesting results have been found by Kaneko (2000). Scientist has found that if a country specializes in acapital commodity, then its growth rate is unaffected by trade. However if it specializes in a consumption

commodity, then growth rate is significantly influenced by trade, i.e. the higher the terms of trade are, thehigher the growth rate is, and vice versa. Currently, there has been found a growing number of literature
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analyzing effect of energy on development of GDP (Chen et al., 2007; Chien, & Hu, 2008; Narayan &Smyth, 2008; Akinlo, 2009; Apergis & Payne, 2009; Apergis et al., 2010; Ozturk & Acaravci, 2010).Scientists have not been of uniform opinion on the effect of energy consumption and GDP. Thus, one of thefour hypotheses has been approved, i.e. conservation, economic growth, bi-directional causality, andneutrality hypotheses.

Although scientific literature is well-off publications on factors influencing GDP development and

economic growth, however these studies usually analyze only impact of a specific factor. Systematicresearch, combining the effect of different factors, has been rarely found. In this respect valuable researchhas been performed by Sharma (2010). Scientist has considered that GDP in a panel of 66 countries has beena function of inflation, gross fixed capital formation, trade, labour force and energy. Lee & Chang (2007)have used a neoclassical growth model and analyzed the effect of capital stock, labour services, productiveenergy and real exports on GDP. This paper contributes to existing scientific literature in a way it analysesthe relationships between GDP and factors influencing it in Lithuania.

Thus, the aim of the articleis to perform a regression analysis of GDP and factors (fuel and energyconsumption, labour, agricultural land, fixed capital consumption) influencing it in Lithuania during 1995-2009.

Seeking to implement the aim, the followingtaskshave been set: to briefly describe the methodology applied in investigation of relationships; to overview the development of GDP, agricultural land, labour, fixed capital and fuel and energy

consumption in Lithuania; to assess univariate and multivariate interrelationships between selected variables and GDP.In order to exercise these tasks the following methods have been applied: analysis of scientific

literature, quantitative analysis of selected statistical data, regression analysis.

Methodology for regression analysis

Regression analysis of GDP and its factors will be performed following the methodology described byBoguslauskas (2004), Bliekienet al.(2006). Univariate and multivariate linear regression models have been

prepared. EXCEL has been used to assess univariate relationships between the selected variables, whereasSTATISTICA has been applied for calculations of multivariate linear regression models. In this section ofthe paper multivariate linear regression methodology will be briefly described.

In a broad sense a multivariate linear regression model, which will be used in the paper, will have thefollowing forms (1), (2), (3) and (4):

)x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x(fy HENEXOPNGCONEIRGIECFCLLAGDP = (1)

)x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x(fyHENEXOPNGCONEIRGIECFCLLAC = (2)

)x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x(fyHENEXOPNGCONEIRGIECFCLLAI = (3)

)x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x,x(fy HENEXOPNGCONEIRGIECFCLLANX = (4)

Here:yGDP gross domestic product at previous year prices, million LTL;yC household consumption expenditure, million LTL;yI gross capital formation, million LTL;yNX net exports of goods and services, million LTL;xLA agricultural land, ha;xL number of people employed, thousand people;xFC consumption of fixed capital, million LTL;xGIEC gross inland energy consumption, ktoe;xIR consumption of indigenous resources, ktoe;xNE consumption of nuclear energy, ktoe;xCO consumption of coal, ktoe;xNG consumption of natural gas, ktoe;xOP consumption of oil products, ktoe;

xNEX net electricity export, ktoe;xE gross consumption of electricity, ktoe;xH gross consumption of heat, ktoe.


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The coefficients of the regression models have been calculated using STATISTICA program package.The significances of coefficients bjhave been checked using (5):

1mn;

j

jt

)b(SE

b

>

(5)

Here: bj coefficient of independent variable x and it has been calculated by STATISTICA;SE(bj) standard errors of coefficient bjand it has been calculated using STATISTICA;

theoretical value of Stjudent criteria, where1mn;t is a level of significance, n is a

number of observations and m is a number of independent variables.If equation (5) is valid, then coefficient bjis significant. In the case coefficient bjis not significant it

has to be removed from the regression model and new variant of the model has to be prepared.Determination coefficient D has been calculated using STATISTICA. Significance of determination

coefficient D has been tested using (6):

1mn;m;F)D1(

)1mn(*D

>

(6)

Here: D coefficient of determination and it is calculated using STATISTICA;

theoretical value of Fisher criteria, where1mn;m;F is a level of significance, n is anumber of observations and m is a number of independent variables.

If equation (6) is valid, then coefficient of determination is significant and calculated regression modelis adequate.

Based on the methodology described above regression analysis will be performed. The main resultswill be presented in the next sections of the paper.

Tendencies and structure of GDP, agricultural land, labour, fixed capital and energy

consumption in Lithuania

In order to better understand the relationships between Lithuanian GDP and its factors, analysis ofselected variables have to be analyzed. Namely, this section of the paper deals with this task.

Figure 1 represents development of Lithuanian GDP, calculated at previous year prices, during 1995-2009.

Figure 1. GDP at previous year prices by kind of expenditure during 1995-2009

Figure 1 has showed that Lithuanian GDP calculated at previous year prices has had a tendency to

grow by 10.8% a year during 1995-2008. The growing rates of gross capital formation, householdconsumption expenditure and general government consumption expenditure by 13.1%, 10.9% and 8.5% a


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year, respectively have had an influence on the growth of GDP. During the analyzed period there has beennoticed a growing volume of net imports of goods and services to the country, which respectively suppressedGDP growth rates. In 2009, a picking up steam global economic crisis has adjusted growth rates of GDP.There has been noticed a 6.4% decrease of GDP in 2009 compared to 2008. The slump of GDP has beeninfluenced by reduced volume of gross capital formation. In 2009, gross fixed capital formation has madeonly 42.6% of its level in 2008. It is worth noting that for the first time net exports of goods and services

(volume has been 1010.4 million LTL) have been fixed in Lithuania in 2009. Saboniene (2009) argues thatexports are valuable since they have allowed domestic industries to achieve some economies of scale,which otherwise would not have been possible due to the limited domestic market size.

During the same period agricultural land in Lithuania has been reducing (Figure 2).

3463571

3465332

3464479

3468383

3482946

3483895

3487397

3487121

3488730

3495534

34967

60

3502104

350

4004

3507508

3

511016

3420000

3440000

3460000

3480000

3500000

3520000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

h

a

Figure 2. Tendencies of agricultural land

Figure 2 has presented that every year on average agricultural land has had a tendency to reduce by0.1%. In 2009, it has made 3463571 ha: plough land has made 84.5%, gardens 0.3%, grassland and grazingland 13.8%. With reference to statistics of the National Land Service (NLS, 2010), the purpose of 3361611ha has been agricultural activities and 24136 ha forestry in 2009.

Figure 3 represents tendencies of people employed in economic activities in Lithuania.

1650

1787

1795

1749

1724

16

78

1

687

165

3

1587

165

31722

1778

1781

1771

1772

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

thous

andofpeople

Figure 3. Tendencies of employment

Figure 3 has showed that employment has been developing inconsistently in Lithuania. Martinkus etal. (2009) has analyzed employment in the Baltic States during 2001-2007. They have noticed that the

regional EU policy support and economic growth, stimulated by increased aggregate demand, have directlyinfluenced on the changes of employment. It has been set that 1 million LTL of EU support might increase


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employment by 0.64%. The largest shifts in employment have appeared due to changes in youthemployment, which annually has increased by 1.9% during 2001-2007. Besides, employment has beeninfluenced by increased labour demand in service sector. As a result of recession, when demand for goodsand services have suddenly fallen, employment has also reduced by 7.7% in 2009 compared to 2008.

In Figure 4, consumption of fixed capital has been presented.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

millionLTL

Agriculture, hunting and f orestry Fishing

Mining and quarry ing Manuf acturing

Electricity , gas and water supply Construction

Wholesale and retail trade Hotels and restaurants

Transport , s torage and communicat ion Financ ial intermediat ion

Real estate, renting and business activities Public administration and defence

Education Health and social work

Other activ ities

Figure 4. Consumption of fixed capital in economic activities in Lithuania

Figure 4 has represented that consumption of fixed capital has been growing by 5.4% a year. Thehighest growth rates have been noticed during strong economic growth period. In 2009, there have beenconsumed 13825.19 million LTL of fixed capital: 17.5% in real estate, renting and business activities, 17.3%in public administration and defence, 15.9% in manufacturing, 12.8% in transport, storage andcommunication. All other economic activities have consumed less than 10% of fixed capital each.

Figure 5 shows development of gross inland energy consumption in Lituania.

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ktoe

Indigenous resourses Nuclear energy Coal Natural gas Oil products Net electr icity import*

* electricity import minus electricity export

Figure 5. Gross inland energy consumption during 1995-2009

Figure 5 has showed that historically nuclear energy has made one-third of all energy and fuelconsumed in Lithuania. Volume of it has noticeably decreased during recession period, which has beencaused by Russian economic crisis. Natural gas has made about 25% in the structure of gross inland energyconsumption. It is worth noting that consumption of indigenous resources has been permanently increasingand its share has rose from 6.6% (1995) till 12.9% (2009). In more details energy consumption in Lithuania

has been analyzed by Miskinis et al.(2006), Katinas & Markevicius (2006), Katinas et al.(2007), Klevas etal.(2007), Streimikiene (2007), Streimikiene (2008), Kontsnatinaviitet al.(2010).


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Thus, the analyses of tendencies have showed different developments of selected variables. Initialresearch has revealed the reasons for variables to change too. Seeking to better understand the developmentof GDP all these variables have been decided to integrate into one model. Univariate and multivariateregression models have been prepared.

Univariate regression models

In the initial stage, it has been decided to look over and assess the relationships between LithuanianGDP and each of it factors. For this purpose univariate regression models have been calculated for Lithuania.

The relationship between agricultural land, people employed in economic activities, fixed capitalconsumption, gross inland energy consumption and GDP have been presented in Figure 6.

y = 7.9905x + 44738

R2= 0.0005

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850

thous and people

millionLTL

People employed - GDP

Linear (People employed - GDP)

y = 94698Ln(x) - 798304

R2= 0.9382

020000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000

Fixed capital, million LTL

GDP,millionLTL

Fixed capital consumption - GDP

Log. (Fixed capital consumption - GDP)

y = 7.6581x - 8618.4

R2= 0.0397

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

7000 8000 9000 10000ktoe

millionLTL

Gross inland energy consumptio - GDP

Linear (Gross inland energy consumptio - GDP)

Figure 6. Relationships between GDP and factors of production in Lithuania during 1995-2009

Figure 6 has presented that development of agricultural land, consumption of fixed capital might welldescribe changes of GDP in Lithuania during 1995-2009. Regression model representing linear relationship

between the use of agricultural land and GDP has showed that higher level of GDP might be achieved bylowering the use of agricultural land, whereas logarithm model presenting relationship between consumptionof fixed capital and GDP has disclosed that GDP might be improved by increasing consumption of fixedcapital. Thus far there has not been found a statistically significant relationship between the number of

people employed and GDP and between gross inland energy consumption and GDP. These notwithstandingthere have been observed positive linkages between GDP and number of people employed and GDP andgross inland energy consumption, i.e. an increase of people employed by 1 thousand and consumption ofgross inland energy by 1 ktoe might improve GDP by 7.99 million LTL and 7.66 million LTL, respectively.

Since gross inland energy consumption has consisted of several types of fuel and energy, therefore ithas been decided to assess the relationships between consumption of specific fuels and energy and GDP. Thegraphic view of Lithuanian GDP and various types of fuels and energy is presented in Figure 7. It hasshowed that development of consumption of indigenous resources, natural gas, electricity and heat have been

closely related to changes of Lithuanian GDP. Mentioned types of energy and fuel might explain 92.9%,52.78%, 58.55% and 56.74% of GDP development in Lithuania, respectively. The relationships betweenother types of fuels and GDP have not been found significant. This has told that there have not been clear


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univariate linkages between consumptions of nuclear energy, coal, oil products, net electricity exports andGDP.

y = 142.04x - 62395

R2= 0.929

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

400 600 800 1000 1200

ktoe

millionLTL

Indigenous resources - GDPLinear (Indigenous resources - GDP)

y = -14.944x + 103981

R2= 0.1419

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1400 2400 3400 4400

ktoe

millionLTL

Nuclear energy - GDPLinear (Nuclear energy - GDP)

y = 151.66x + 32552

R2= 0.1196

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

ktoe

million

LTL

Coal - GDP Linear (Coal - GDP)

y = 57.766x - 70405

R2= 0.5278

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000

ktoe

million

LTL

Natural gas - GDP

Linear (Natural gas - GDP)

y = -18.679x + 110399

R2= 0.0958

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

ktoe

million

LTL

Oil products - GDP

Linear (Oil products - GDP)

y = -47.269x + 73459

R2= 0.1582

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

ktoe

million

LTL

Net electricity export - GDPLinear (Net electricity export - GDP)

y = 277.46x - 219286

R2= 0.5855

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

800 900 1000 1100 1200

ktoe

millionLT

L

Electricity - GDP

Linear (Electric ity - GDP)

y = -58.077x + 138534

R2= 0.5674

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

ktoe

millionLT

L

Heat - GDP Linear (Heat - GDP)

Figure 7. Relationships between fuel and energy consumption and GDP in Lithuania during 1995-2009


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Thus, economic literature has suggested and results of empirical research have told that countriesGDP might be created using various factors and different combinations of these factors historically have

been used in national economies. Hence, it has been decided to integrate all these factors into one model. Theresults of multivariate regression models will be presented in the section below.

Multivariate regression models

Seeking to set the relationships between Lithuanian GDP, agricultural land, people employed ineconomic activities, consumption of fixed capital and gross inland energy consumption, regression modelshave been prepared. The results of the models are presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Multivariate regression models of GDP

Equation

Determi-

nation

coeffi-

cient

Standard

error of

estimate

Conclusion about modelprepared

1 model:yGDP= 3482901 xLA+ 34 xL+ 3xFC+ xGIEC 98.64% 3259.2Coefficient of xGIECis not

significant

2 model: yGDP= -991.33 0.003 xLA 7.54 xL+ 9.607 xFC 98.64% 8117.2 Coefficient of xLAis notsignificant

3 model:yGDP= -2125.52 9.64 xL+ 8.88 xFC 93.05% 8236.3Coefficient of xLis not

significant

4 model:yGDP= -13062.6 + 8.3 xFC 91.54% 8780.1Model is adequate, when F

criteria is taken intoaccount

5 model:yGDP= 149631 +16 xLA++ xFC+ 128 xIR+ 20 xNE 51 xCO+ 5 xNG+

+ 7 xOP 74 xNEX99.78% 1699.2

Coefficients of xLA, xFC,xNGare not significant

6 model: yGDP= 471869 0.2 xLA+ 14 xL++ 3.5 xFC+ 73.2 xIR 1.9 xNE+ 10.5 xNG+ 5.9 xOP

99.49% 2400.0Some coefficients are not

significant7 model: yGDP= 101064 + 10 xL+ 4 xFC+ 84 xIR

2 xNE+ 13 xNG+ 7 xOP 99.46% 2298.0

Some coefficients are not

significant

8 model: yGDP= 89810.5 + 3.7 xFC+ 82.6 xIR 2.5 xNE+ 13.9 xNG+ 7.9 xOP

99.46% 2196.0Model is adequate, when F


9 model:yI= 57380.5 + 23.5 xIR+ 13.6 xNG+ 7.5 xOP 85.72% 2961.0Model is adequate, when F


10 model: yC= 62614.6 + 86.6 xIR 3.6 xNE++ 8.6 xNG+6.6 xOP

98.10% 2548.2Model is adequate, when F


11 model:yNX= 30949.08 10.6 xNG 4.53 xOP 61.47% 2554.4Model is adequate, when F


Table 1 has showed that various models of Lithuanian GDP could be prepared. Firstly, it has beenassumed that Lithuanian GDP might be influenced by use of agricultural land, people employed in economicactivities, consumption of fixed capital and consumption of gross inland energy consumption (model 1).However, the results have told that the coefficient of gross inland energy consumption has not beensignificant in the model. Thus, new variants of the regression models have been calculated.

As it is indicated in the model 4, consumption of fixed capital could adequately explain developmentof Lithuanian GDP during 19952009. An increase of consumption of fixed capital by 1 million LTL couldimprove Lithuanian GDP by 8.3 million LTL. Other factors that have not been included in the model havereduced GDP by 13062.6 million LTL. Fixed capital consumption could explain 91.54% of development ofLithuanian GDP.

Since gross inland energy consumption is not significant in the model 1, therefore it has been decidedto segregate gross energy by types of fuel and energy and to analyze the effect of energy consumption on


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GDP at segregated level. Additional regression models 5, 6, 7 and 8 have been prepared (Table 1). Theresults of the model 5 have showed that agricultural land, consumption of fixed capital, consumption ofindigenous resources, nuclear energy, natural gas and oil products have been positively related to LithuanianGDP, whereas consumption of coal and net electricity export has had an adverse effect on GDP. This hasshowed that coal consuming country has losses in GDP and the amount of looses directly depends on volumeof coal consumed. Therefore it is valuable to shift fuel from coal to, for example, indigenous resources (such

as wood).Consumption of coal and volume of net electricity export historically has made 1.9% and 3.6% of

gross inland energy consumption in Lithuania, respectively. Coal consumption and net electricity exportvolumes during the analyzed period have been changing inconstantly, no clear direction of their developmenthas been found. As a result values of coefficients are difficult to explain; as well it is complicated to givethem economic sense. For further analysis it has been decided not to include these variables into theregression models.

Model 6 has represented results of regression, when only sustainable fuels, fuels comprising adominant share of gross inland energy consumption, agricultural land, people employed and fixed capitalhave been analyzed. Nonetheless some of calculated coefficients have not been significant in the model 6, aswell in model 7. Variables with the lowest t-statistics have been eliminated from these models.

Calculated model 8 has been statistically significant and adequate for the analysis of Lithuanian GDPand its factors. This model has showed that fixed capital, indigenous resources, nuclear energy, natural gasand oil products might explain development of Lithuanian GDP. It is worth noting that all variables, exceptnuclear energy, have had a positive effect on GDP. The results of model 10 might explain a negative effectof nuclear energy on GDP, i.e. a negative effect of nuclear energy on GDP has emerged through nuclearenergys ability to contribute to reduction of households consumption expenditure (see description of model10 below). The results of the model 8 have represented that Lithuanian GDP is sensitive over consumption ofindigenous resources, including renewable energy sources, as well over consumption of natural gas. Anincrease of indigenous resources by 1 ktoe might improve GDP by 82.6 million LTL and an increase ofnatural gas by 1 ktoe could augment GDP by 13.9 million LTL.

As it is indicated in the model 9 the positive influence of indigenous resources, natural gas and oilproducts has passed GDP through these variables positive effects on gross capital formation.

Results of the model 10 have represented that households consumption expenditure has beendependent on volume of indigenous resources, nuclear energy, natural gas and oil products. It is interestingto notice that both indigenous resources, the consumption of which is supported in Lithuania, use of naturalgas and oil products have increased households consumption expenditure, whereas consumption ofadditional 1 ktoe of nuclear energy has reduced households consumption expenditure by 3.6 million LTL.The reduction of households consumption expenditure due to increase of consumption of nuclear energy has

been possible, because fuel costs (variable costs) of such type of energy has been low and investments (fixedcosts) into Ignalina nuclear power plant have been already paid. Thus, in this respect nuclear energy has beencheap.

Important results have been received in model 11. This model has presented that net exports of goodsand services have been influenced by consumption of natural gas and oil products. The higher the countrysdependency on consumption of natural gas and oil products the worse volume of net exports of good and

services. The reasons for such an effect to emerge might be twofold. On the one hand, countrys exportcompetitiveness might be reduced regarding high consumption of mentioned fuels. Such a situation could beexplained by fact that historically natural gas price has been higher than the price of other fuels(Konstantinaviitet al.,2010). In this case price of goods and services, an input of which natural gas is,has increased and might reduce export competitiveness. On the other hand, natural gas has been imported.Imports of goods and services has worsen a trade balance and hereby GDP.

Conclusions

With reference to regression analysis performed, the following conclusions might be drawn:1. The analysis of the univariate relationships have showed that development of agricultural land,

consumption of fixed capital might well describe changes of GDP in Lithuania. Higher level of GDP could

be achieved by lowering the use of agricultural land. GDP might be improved by increasing consumption offixed capital. An increase of consumption of fixed capital by 1 million LTL could improve Lithuanian GDPby 8.3 million LTL. Other factors that have not been included in the model have reduced GDP by 13062.6


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million LTL. Fixed capital consumption might explain 91.54% of development of Lithuanian GDP. Therehave been observed positive linkages between GDP, number of people employed, and gross inland energyconsumption, i.e. an increase of people employed by 1 thousand and consumption of gross inland energy by1 ktoe might improve GDP by 7.99 million LTL and 7.66 million LTL, respectively. However, statisticallythese relationships have not been found significant.

2. The analysis of univariate relationships between different types of fuel and energy and GDP have

disclosed that development of consumption of indigenous resources, natural gas, electricity and heat havebeen closely related to changes of Lithuanian GDP. Mentioned types of energy and fuel might explain92.9%, 52.78%, 58.55% and 56.74% of GDP development in Lithuania, respectively.

3. The results of multivariate regression model have showed that fixed capital, indigenous resources,nuclear energy, natural gas and oil products might explain development of Lithuanian GDP. All variables,except nuclear energy, have had a positive effect on GDP. A negative effect of nuclear energy on GDP hasappeared due to nuclear energys effect on households consumption expenditure, i.e. cheap nuclear energyhas enabled households to reduce their expenditure. Positive influence of indigenous resources, natural gasand oil products has passed GDP through their positive effects on gross capital formation. Net exports ofgoods and services have been influenced by consumption of natural gas and oil products. The higher thecountrys dependency on consumption of natural gas and oil products the worse volume of net exports ofgood and services.

References

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