14 Ric Parker

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2010 Rolls-Royce plcThe information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for anypurpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is givenconcerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc orany of its subsidiary or associated companies.

National Ambitions for Power Generationin the UK

Nuclear TechnologiesRic Parker17th March 2010


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Role of Nuclear in UK Generating Mix

Significance for Timing of Nuclear New-build

UK Focus in Technology Development

Next Generation of Nuclear Power Plants

Opportunities for UK Industry

UK R&D Programme to Support New Build Beyond UK New-build

Civil Nuclear and Rolls-Royce

Beyond Gen III Summary

Outline


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Role of Nuclear in UK Generating Mix

The CBI Decision Time Report July 2009

Business as Usual Scenario

Almost all of the UKs ageing

coal-fired and nuclear powerstations will be retired by 2020

CBI assumes delays in

licensing /authorisation of newnuclear stations will meanthese may not be

commissioned until post 2020

Balanced Pathway Scenario

FGD and NOx-abated

plants capable ofcomplying with the revisedLCPD run until after 2020

Greater encouragement ofCCS throughdemonstrator programmes

Scaling back the 2020

target for renewables,reducing the quantity ofwind

note 1:This level of plant retirement significantly exceeds most previous projections.


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Significance for composition UK generating mix (2030)

Gas fired capacityrises to 36 %

Nuclear capacityconstrained to 20 %

Nuclear capacityincreased to 34 %

Power Prices lower andvolatility reduced

Delivers further CO2abatementover medium term compared toBAU

Gas imports in 2030 rise to100 BCM with greater gasinfrastructure needs

CO2emissions from UK powergen 45%lower in 2030 compared with BAUnote 1

note 1 CBI projects that CO2emissions from Balanced Pathway will amount to 35 MT as compared with 60 MT for BAU


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UK Historical Technology Development

UK currently has 19 nuclear reactors, totalling11 GWe of capacity This fleet is characterised by unique reactor

designs:

15 Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors(AGRs)

2 Magnox stations Only a single UK nuclear power plant (Sizewell

B, Pressurised Water Reactor) completed in

1995 can be considered of modern design By 2020, electricity from these stations reduced

to 7 % of UK capacity from current 15-20% (allexcept Sizewell B closed by 2023)

Only Sizewell B offers scope for significant lifeextension

UK nuclear R&D has been dominated by clean-up and de-commissioning of existing plant.


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Next Generation of Nuclear Plants

Next generation of UK nuclear stations:

HMG approval for 10 sites in England and Wales (first by2017)

UKs proposed new build programme will use existing GenerationIII or III+ reactor designs

The most likely designs for early plants in the next generationinclude:

Westinghouse 1,150 MWe AP1000TM Pressurised WaterReactor (PWR)

AREVA 1,600 MWe European Pressurised water Reactor

(EPR) design

Assessment of non-site-specific issues associated with theabove designs is expected to be completed in Q2 2011.


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Candidate Reactor Designs

Both of the most likely designsare held by non-UK OEMs

The AREVA EPRTM design iscurrently being utilised for the

following new nuclear plantsunder construction:

- Flamanville 3, France

- Olkiluoto Unit 3, Finland

China has officially adopted the WestinghouseAP1000 as a standard for inland nuclear

projects- Sanmen 6 x 1,150 MW units, Zhejang

- Haiyan 6 x 1, 150 MW, Shandong AREVA

Westinghouse


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Opportunities for UK Industry

A report1 (February 2009) examined the capability and capacity of thesupply chain for a UK new civil nuclear build programme

this concluded that there will be significant opportunities for UK-based companies:

Pre-Build (Design) including reactor plantsystem module andproduct definition, instrumentation and control, electrical systems,etc.

Project Management

Civil Construction

Manufacturing, including large forgings, other forgings and

castings, valves, pumps, cables, etc.

Operation and Decommissioning

Nuclear engineering skills gaps were identified as a weakness for theUKs new-build, nuclear supply chain.

Note 1: Supply Chain for a UK Nuclear New Build Programme, Dr Stephen A Court, National Metals TechnologyCentre (NAMTEC) submitted to Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR)


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Potential Work-Streams for UK Nuclear

R&D Programme To reduce costs and risks involved in new build and licensing.

- modelling of plant transient behaviour

- external hazard assessment e.g. seismic design

- control and instrumentation

To ensure that plants operate at the maximum safety andcapacity

- Equipment Health Management (EHM), novel sensors,knowledge management techniques, use of virtual plantmodels to assist in maintenance

To ensure long term safety and availability of plants- development of improved materials and lifing To ensure a sustainable waste management


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Today nuclear power accounts for 16% of the worldselectricity production

Operational reactors(2009)Total number 441

New Build(2010-2030)Total number 389

NorthAmerica(167)

SouthAmerica(14)

Europe(170)

South Africa(9)

Rest of Asia(57)

India(52)

China(124)

Russia(74)

CentralEasternEurope(82)

Japan(66)

Region (TotalNo.)


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The world, new-build market is worth ~850Bn to 2030 withthe support market contributing a further ~950Bn

New Build

Current fleet

support

New Buildsupport

Nuclear Power Plantmarket 2010-2030 (Bn)

Source: Rolls-Royce

WEO, WNA

M

New Build

Support

Bn


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Civil Nuclear and Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce is well-positioned with skills,

capabilities and facilities for participationin UK civil nuclear new build

Over 50 years of nuclear engineering

experience Rolls-Royce has considerable capability

UK submarines: water reactor

engineering, instrumentation andcontrol systems.

Data Systems and Solutions: nuclear

services in USA and mainlandEurope

Structuring high value-added supply

chains ~2000 nuclear engineers/specialists


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Gen IV GOFastR Gas-cOoled Fast Reactors

6m 3-year EU FP7 funded programme with 21partners.

Breeder reactor technology using U-238 and Pu-239as fuel.

High temperature operation (up to 950 C reactoroutlet temperature).

> 45% thermal efficiency.

Single phase, inert primary coolant.

Potential to burn long-lived minor actinides. Rolls-Royce areas of interest:

Power conversion systems systemdesign, component selection andperformance.

High temperature primary circuit heat exchangertechnology.


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New nuclear build has a significant potential for meeting UKGHG and energy security targets

Delivery of technology/systems in time to match retirements iskey

Recent nuclear R&D focus on clean-up and decommissioning ofexisting unique reactor designs

Timing of new UK nuclear stations makes selection of pre-

existing Gen III or III+ designs essential Candidate reactor designs already exist from overseas

suppliers, but considerable opportunities exist for UK industryacross design, construction, operation and decommissioning

A targeted UK R&D programme to support new build will beessential if UK companies are to benefit

This will not stop at Gen III; we need to be match-fit for Gen IV

Summary

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