13615895 Saul Griffith an Engineers Approach to Climate Working Backwards From Where We Want to Be
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Transcript of 13615895 Saul Griffith an Engineers Approach to Climate Working Backwards From Where We Want to Be
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HOW MUCH POWERDO I USE?
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40 apples per secondfrom the ground to the
table = 40 Watts.
Power is measured in Watts (W).1 Watt = 1 Joule / second
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Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
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Power, in Watts, is like an average.The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second.
So now you can add all these things.Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
The Power of me:Calculating my energy consumption
=
=
7,462 Watts
170 Watts
90 Watts=
If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes:
If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes:
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Me
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7 000 000 000 People
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0 10 20 30 40 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 Qatar2 Iceland3 United Arab Emirates4 Bahrain5 Luxembourg6 Netherlands Antilles7 Kuwait8 Trinidad and Tobago9 Canada
10 United States11 Brunei Darussalam12 Finland13 Norway14 Sweden15 Australia
16 Belgium17 Saudi Arabia18 Singapore19 Gibraltar
20 Netherlands21 Oman22 France23 Russian Federation24 New Zealand25 Korea, Rep26 Czech Rep27 Germany28 Austria29 Japan30 United Kingdom31 Denmark32 Ireland33 Switzerland34 Estonia35 Turkmenistan36 Slovenia37 Slovakia38 Kazakhstan39 Cyprus40 Spain41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya42 Israel43 Italy44 Ukraine45 Greece46 Belarus47 Lithuania48 South Africa49 Hungary50 Bulgaria
kilowatts
US Average
Global
Average
Per capita power use 2003
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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 60000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
AveragePerPersonPowerinWatts
Population in Millions.
Asia (excluding middle east)
1450 Watts
Central America & the Carribean
1800 Watts
South America
1580 Watts
Middle-east & North Africa
2300 Watts
Europe
5400 Watts
north america
11400 Watts
Energy Use by Region
Power Watts/person
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0 10 20 30 40 50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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90
1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA
2 USSR3 CHINA_MAINLAND
4 GERMANY_COMBINE
5 JAPAN_COMBINE
6 UNITED_KINGDOM
7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE
8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO
9 INDIA
10 CANADA
11 POLAND
12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION
13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO
14 SOUTH_AFRICA15 MEXICO
16 AUSTRALIA
17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA18 BELGIUM19 SPAIN20 BRAZIL21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA22 NETHERLANDS23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN24 SAUDI_ARABIA25 INDONESIA26 ROMANIA27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA28 ARGENTINA29 VENEZUELA30 TURKEY31 UKRAINE32 TAIWAN
33 AUSTRIA34 SWEDEN35 HUNGARY36 THAILAND37 DENMARK38 ALGERIA39 BULGARIA40 EGYPT41 GREECE42 SWITZERLAND43 NIGERIA44 MALAYSIA45 FINLAND46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES47 KAZAKHSTAN48 IRAQ
49 COLOMBIA50 PAKISTAN
gigametrict
onsofcarbon
Cumulative national CO2
emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce-ment manufacture, and gas flaring: 1751-2004
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Out of equilibrium
Atmosphereto Ocean2 GtC/year
Carbon toAtmosphere
8 GtC/year
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Atmospheric CO2
concentration.
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
CO
L
evel(p
pm)
Year
Ice Core 20 year AverageLaw Dome Antarctica
Mauna Loa Direct MeasurementHawaii
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Temperature Changes around the worldin the last quarter of the 20th century
Trends in C per decade
-1 -0.8 +0.8-0.6 +0.6-0.4 +0.4-0.2 +0.20 +1
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The aesthetic choice... The design challenge...
??
??
?
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A1B
A1T
A1FI
A2
B1
B2
IS92a
Scenarios
21002000190018001700
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
10% Species Lost
Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
20-50% Species Lost
1-4 Billion people face water shortages
15-40% Species Lost
450ppm
2.0
Climate models:Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet
TemperatureRise,
degreesCelsius
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TemperatureRise,
degreesCelsius
15-40% Species Lost
10% Species Lost
1-4 Billion people face water shortages
Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
20-50% Species Lost
450ppm
Scenarios:Guesses at humanity's reactions: "business as usual vs. change"
A1B
A1T
A1FI
A2
B1
B2
IS92a
Scenarios
21002000190018001700
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
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450ppm
A1B
A1T
A1FI
A2
B1
B2
IS92a
Scenarios
21002000190018001700
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
TemperatureRise,
degreesCelsius
10% Species Lost
Entire cities and countries lost to sea level
20-50% Species Lost1-4 Billion people face water shortages
15-40% Species Lost2.0
Impact Studies:Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate modelsand scenarios.
90% Coral Reefs Lost
Resource warsIRREVERSIBLE
FEEDBACKS
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650
550
450ppm CO2
(year2000) 368
Preindustrial 280
What if we choose?
+2oC
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2 TW New Photo Voltaic
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100
m100
m100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100
m
100
m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m100m
100m
100m 100m
10
0m
100
m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100m
100 m of solar cells
every second for the next
25 years. 15% efficiency,
good sitting.
1sec
.
PhotoVoltaic
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2 TW New Solar Thermal
50m
50m
50m
50m5
0m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50
m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
5
0m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m50m
50m 50m
50m 50
m
50
m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50m
50
m
25 years50 mof solar thermalmirrors every second for
the next 25 years. 30%
efficiency, well sited.
1sec
.
SolarThermal
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100m Diameter
100m
Diam
eter
100m
Dia
mete
r
100m
Diameter
100mD
iamet
er
100mDiameter
100mDiameter
100mDiameter
100mDiameter
100mD
iameter
12 3MW wind turbines in
great locations every hour.
Or one 100m diameter
turbine every 5 minutes
6min.
2 TW New Wind Wind
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SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
1
8765432
1615141312109
23222120191817
30292827262524
31
SAT
March
3 TW New Nuclear
1x 3GW Nuclear plant every
week for the next 25 years.
Nuclear
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2 TW Geothermal
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
1
8765432
1615141312109
23222120191817
30292827262524
31
SAT
March
3x 100MW
steam turbines
every day for
next 25 years.
Geothermal
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"The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Depression.
OilCrises.
Re
cession.
Sep.1
1.2
001.
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2008
The year of 'peak waste'
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If the average Americanwere to leave home each
morning with a backpackfull of the fuel they need-ed for their day:
Oil = 31 kg, 67 lb.Coal = 29 kg, 63 lb.Gas = 6 kg, 12 lb.
11 400 Watts.
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What about products?
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Also contains per bottle
Plasticizers 43mg
Estrogen 0.12mg
Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg
Safe daily values not yet established.
Consumption FactsContainer Mass 1.58oz (44.9g)
Components per container 3
Embodied Energy Per Container
Total 4,609,420 Joules
PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 Joules
HDPE 4.83g 497,500 Joules
Cellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules
Recycle rate 23%
Landfill rate 43%
Energy recovery rate 16%
Lost to environmental waste 18%
Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value*Total 4.54%
Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69%
Manufacture 0.46%
Embodied Energy 2.67%
Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71%
* Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000
Watt lifestyle.
The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle.
! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your
energy footprint by 90 Watts.
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+ 0.2 x TWy + 0.15 x TWy + 0.11 x TWy
There's a known and reasonably predictable amount of
carbon left to burn:
1 TWy = 1 Terawatt Year = 3.16 x 1019 Joules.
CO2
ppm
= CO2
ppm
future futurecoal oil gas
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1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10-21 ppm increase.
How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a
1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm
How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm
How many ppm for installing :
5TW solar = 6.1 ppm3TW wind = 0.55 ppm
2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm
So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary.
Might be good to ask questions of form:
How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm
6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm
6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm
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wattzon.comMeasure what is measureable, makemeasureable what is not.
- Galileo