Valuation : Packet 2 Relative Valuation, Asset-based valuation and Private Company Valuation
130311 Valuation Valuation WARNING is Back ONWarning
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Transcript of 130311 Valuation Valuation WARNING is Back ONWarning
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7/29/2019 130311 Valuation Valuation WARNING is Back ONWarning
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March 11, 2013
ATTENTION Investors and Finance Professionals:
If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning stock valuation andforecast service at the low price of $19.95/month!
NO OBLIGATION, 30 Day FREE TRIAL!
VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at
levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvaluedstocks now make up 65% of our universe and almost 28% of the
universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16
sectors are calculated to be overvalued.
Valuation WARNING is Back ON
ValuEngine Re-Issues Market Valuation Warning
ValuEngine has re-issued a market valuation warning as of today, March
11th. Our overall market overvaluation and overvalued by 20% or more figures havereached levels which have been correlated with market pull backs in the past. Strong
market performance drives these calculations right now., We first issued a Valuation
Watch back in January. High valuations continued through February and declined
just slightly at the end of that month. We had a respite from February 26th until March
6th. This is a time for investors to keep a close eye on the market and to consider
booking some profits and perhaps hedging against a move to the downside.
The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 8000 US equities, ADRs, and
foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of
mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should
be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to besure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and
industries.
We track market valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls
about the overall state of the market. Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels
in excess of @ 65% for the overall universe and/or 27% for the overvalued by 20% or
http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33https://www.facebook.com/pages/ValuEngine-Inc/111602408163http://twitter.com/ValuEnginehttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=24http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33 -
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more categories, we issue a valuation warning. As of Friday's close, we now calculate
that 65.16% of stocks are overvalued and 27.42% of stocks are overvalued by 20% or
more.
Subscribers Get FULL ACCESSto our Market and Sector Overviews
The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from January 2012 until today.
This chart shows overall universe valuation vs the S&P 500 from June 2012 to the
present.
http://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/ve/MarketViewhttp://www.valuengine.com/ve/ResearchSectorhttp://www.valuengine.com/images/newsletter/weekly/130311medvalchrt.pnghttp://www.valuengine.com/images/newsletter/weekly/130311shrtval.pnghttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/ve/MarketViewhttp://www.valuengine.com/ve/ResearchSector -
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In addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis 15 of
16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued. In the past, our Chief Market Strategist
Richard Suttmeier has used the sector valuation figures to buttress his macro market
calls. This is another indicator that stocks are no longer the bargain they were a fewmonths ago and that investors should consider implementing additional risk
management tools and/or booking some profits.
Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued 34.52%
Stocks Overvalued 65.48%
Stocks Undervalued by 20% 14.22%
Stocks Overvalued by 20% 27.97%
Sector Overview
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn
P/ERatio
Aerospace 2.37% 3.07% 9.31% 9.60% overvalued 5.26% 14.14
Auto-Tires-Trucks 1.46% 2.33% 8.18% 16.19% overvalued 5.46% 16.15
Basic Materials 0.69% 3.33% 5.29% 4.01% undervalued -28.51% 18.97
Business Services 1.13% 3.31% 11.03% 16.04% overvalued 10.93% 21.58
Computer and Technology 0.59% 2.09% 10.58% 16.92% overvalued 2.06% 26.12
Construction 0.78% 2.64% 11.28% 23.68% overvalued 25.44% 25.89
Consumer Discretionary 0.40% 3.23% 11.98% 13.37% overvalued 8.16% 22.99
Consumer Staples 0.29% 3.58% 8.83% 23.50% overvalued 9.42% 19.22
Finance 0.37% 2.33% 11.29% 18.56% overvalued 13.80% 17.58
Industrial Products 1.15% 3.35% 12.19% 17.05% overvalued 6.74% 18.82
Medical 0.45% 2.77% 11.12% 10.38% overvalued 9.69% 23.9
Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.03% 0.91% 5.02% 10.37% overvalued 13.42% 15.64
Oils-Energy 0.75% 1.78% 8.52% 6.19% overvalued -13.68% 24.17
Retail-Wholesale 0.59% 2.67% 13.30% 16.93% overvalued 14.52% 19.94
Transportation0.85% 2.87% 17.09% 20.50% overvalued 4.71% 20.31
Utilities 0.60% 2.09% 6.37% 11.70% overvalued 2.59% 17.76