13-1 Probability of Win Based on Bid 1.8.6.4.2 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 % Below% Above...
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Transcript of 13-1 Probability of Win Based on Bid 1.8.6.4.2 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 % Below% Above...
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Probability of Win Based on Bid
1
.8
.6
.4
.2
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10% Below % Above
Probability of Winning
Expected Competitive Bid
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Return $ Based on Bid
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10% Below % Above
Expected Competitive Bid
Return $
10%
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Expected Return Based on Bid
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10% Below % Above
Expected Competitive Bid
.-2.2%
Return $ Discountedby Prob. of Win
Marginal Return $ X
Prob. Win
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Technology RoadmapDevelopment Process
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Roadmap Development Overview
Baseline ForceCapability
PreliminaryRanking of
ConfigurationOptions
OtherConsiderations
TechnologyPush
Pre-DesignStudies
RequirementsAnalysis
Master ConfigurationRoadmap
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Roadmap Development Activities
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Baseline Capability
• Missions/Tasks for Each Own Force Aircraft Must Be Identified Based on Warfare Objectives
• Evaluations of Effectiveness Must Account for Mission/Tasks within Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Categories. Summations of Kills “Over Time” Across Both Categories Are Particularly Meaningful.
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Sample Multirole Aircraft Missions/Tasks
Warfare Objectives to Be Achieved
Top-Level Multirole AircraftRequirements Identification
Massive Firepower In-Theater“At a Pace and in Numbers Sufficientto Field an Over-Whelming Force”
Direct Support of the GroundCampaign“Slow the Enemy’s Offensive Tempuntil Friendly Ground Forces Can Massand Counter the Advance”
Establish Air Superiority“Denying the Enemy Use of His Airpower and Defenses”
Reconstitution“The ability to Reconstitute a CredibleDefense Faster Than Any Potential Opponent Can Generate an Over-Whelming Offense”
1. In-theatre Sortie Generation2. Supportable
3. Kill Armored Vehicles4. Destroy Critical Chokepoints
5. Destroy Enemy Aircraft in Air and on Ground6. Destroy Enemy Air Defenses
7. Reconstitutable
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Technology Push
• Sources of Options– Government Labs - Defense Industry– Commercial Organizations - Educational Institutes
• Upgrade Option Categories– Airframe - Electronic Warfare– Propulsion - Avionics Architecture– Fuel Carriage - Comm/Nav/Ident– Materials - Weapons Int./Carriage– Takeoff/Landing Systems - Mission Planning– Flight Controls - Training Systems– Pilot Vehicle Interface - Reliability/Maint./Supp.– Sensors - C3I
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Technology Upgrade Option Candidates
• Airframe– Structure– Wing– Tail– Inlet– Electroluminescent Strip
Lighting– Signature Improvements
• Propulsion
– Improved Engine
– Nozzle
– Thrust Vectoring
• Electronic Warfare- Threat Warning- Threat Info Management- Dispensers- Expendables- Towed Countermeasures- Electronic Countermeasures
• Avionics Architecture- Data Bus- Processor Memory- Processor Throughput- Tactical Data Management
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Technology Upgrade Option Candidates(Cont.)
• Fuel Carriage
– External Tanks
– Conformal Tanks
– Dorsal Tanks
• Materials
– Composites
– Advanced Metals
• Takeoff/Landing
– Gear
– Drag Chute
– Braking
– Thrust Reversers
– Longer Life Tires
• Comm/Nav/Ident
– Anti-Jam Voice Data Link
– Global Positioning System
– Improved IFF
– Infrared Navigation
• Weapons Int/Carriage
– Standoff Weapon
– Air-to-Air Missiles
– Air-to-Surface Weapon
– Digital Store Management System
• Mission Planning
– Automated Planning Aids
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Technology Upgrade Option Candidates(Cont.)
• Flight Controls– Terrain Following/Avoidance– Ground Proximity Warning
• Pilot Vehicle Interface– Color Moving Map– Night Vision– Helmet-Mounted Display– Tactical Situation Awareness
Display• Sensors
– Radar– Infrared Targeting– All Weather Targeting– Day/Night Capability– Laser Designators– Synthetic Aperture Radar
• Training Systems
– Pilot
– Mission
• Reliability/Maint./Supp.
– Modular Avionics
– Auxiliary Power Unit
– Integrated Diagnostics Testing
• C3I
– Real-Time Intelligence to Cockpit
– On-Board Data Fusion
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Format For Technology Summaries
• Description– Basic System Characteristics– Integration Issues– Manufacturers
• Benefits/Costs– Operational Improvements– Performance Impacts– Reliability and Maintainability– System Impacts (Weight, Volume, Cooling, Power)– Development Cost– Unit Cost
• Status– Development Required– Availability– Risk and Other Considerations
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Other Considerations
• Known/Suspected Threat Change Plans
• Projected New Technology Capability Must Be Accepted and Embrace by Both Military and Civilian Leadership
• Technology Must Allow Appropriate Self-Sufficienecy
• Technology Must Be Compatible with Manpower, Training, and Skill Levels
Political Drivers
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Other Considerations (Cont’d)
• Must Enhance Future Market Potential
• In-Country Support Concept Must Be Workable
• Availability to Tailor Subsystems to Specific Foreign Customer Needs (Example : Adaptability to Existing Weapons)
International Market Competitiveness
• Must Be Affordable in Relation to Baseline Aircraft Cost• Technology Must Be Low to Moderate Risk in Timeframe Planned for Implementation
Budget/Timeframe
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Preliminary Ranking4
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Quantifying Technology Upgrade Benefit
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Rankings of Sample TechnologiesSuggests Most Promising Options
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Pre-Design Studies
• Cost - Estimate Life Cycle Cost Components of Technology
• Availability - Determine Earliest Implementation Timeframe
• Feasibility - Assessment of Technology Impact on Design Margins (i.e., Available Volume, Weight, Cooling, and Electrical Power). Define Feasible Upgrade Options without Regard to Implementation Time Sequence
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Life Cycle Cost Composition
WEAPON SYSTEM COST
• Tech Data• Publication• Contractor Service• Support Equipment• Training Equipment• Factory Training
• Management• Hardware• Software• Nonrecurring "Start-up"• Allowance for Changes
FLYAWAY COST
PLUS PLUSPLUSPLUS• Initial
Spares• RDT&E• Facility Construction
• Operations & Support (Includes Post-Produc- tion Support)
• Disposal
PROCUREMENT COST
PROGRAM ACQUISITION COST
LIFE CYCLE COST
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Requirements Analysis6
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Principal Steps in ComprehensiveRequirements Analysis Assessments
1. Identify Decision Factors within Broad Decision Categories (Note: This Step Can Be Performed Before or During Pre-Design Studies)
2. Quantify Decision Factors for Each Configuration
3. Analyze Customer Preferences for Each Decision Factor (Note: This Step Can Also Be Performed Before or During Pre-Design)
4. Assign Weights to Decision Factors
5. Score Each Configuration (Sum Weights x Preferences)
6. Perform Sensitivity Analysis on Weights If Configuration Scoring is Close)
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Sample Configuration Decision Categories
Air Vehicle
Effectiveness Cost Risk
Threat AcquisitionAvoidance
Hit AvoidableGiven Acquisition
Sortie Survival Given Hit
Target Acquisition
Target KillGiven Acquisition
Kills per Sortie
Targets KilledOver Time
Flyaway
Weapon System
Procurement
Program Acquisition
Life Cycle
Technical
Cost
Schedule
Producibility
Supportability
Management
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Utility Functions - Preference Indicators
• Utility Functions Provide a Good Technique for Translating Diverse Criteria Into a Common Scale. (i.e., Range in NMi, MTBF in Hours, etc.)• Utility Scores Range From 0 to 1 With 0 Being Least Preferred and 1 Being Most Preferred.
Range in MNi MTBF in hoursThreshold Objective
1 1
Examples
Utility for Range Utility for MTBF
Threshold Objective
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Hints for Determiningthe Shape of Utility Functions
After Establishing theMinimum Requirementsand Goal, Draw NeutralPreference Position asShown Neutral
Preference
1
2 Divide Decision Factorinto Quartiles and Assess 25%, 50%, and 75% Points Relative toNeutral Preference
Req Decision Factor Goal
Req Decision Factor Goal
1
1
Critical,Risk Prone
Non-Critical,Risk Average
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Final Steps in Development of Master Configuration Roadmap
• Time Phase Prioritized Technologies with Yearly Budgets for Upgrades (i.e., Pace Upgrade Implementations with Planned Budgets)
• Resequence Time Phased Prioritized Technology Upgrades as Necessary Dependent on Implementation Availability for New or Emerging Technologies
7
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How to Determine a FundingProfile for Program Phases
QUESTION: How to select the development cost so that development and production cost is minimum?
Key Factors: Design Margins Extent of Risk Reduction
Development +Production Cost
Development Cost
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Relating Risk Resolution toDevelopment Cost
Design MarginsRequired
Extentof Risk
Resolution
Extentof Risk
Resolution
DevelopmentCost
H
L
.
.
When risks are resolved development cost increases.
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Relating Design Margins to Production Cost
Design MarginsRequired
Extentof Risk
Resolution
Extentof Risk
Resolution
DevelopmentCost
H
L
.
.
Design MarginsRequired
ProductionCost
When design margins are increased, production costs increase.
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Relating Production Cost and RiskResolution to Development Cost
Design MarginsRequired
Extentof Risk
Resolution
Extentof Risk
Resolution
DevelopmentCost
H
L
Design MarginsRequired
ProductionCost
..
ProductionCost
DevelopmentCost
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Observation
When development cost goes up (due to risk resolution in order to decrease design margins), production cost goes down.
Question: How can development and production cost be balanced?
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How to Determine Development Cost
Development +Production Cost
Development Cost
Sum the development and production cost and graph as a function of development cost.
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Summary of Course
Review different Systems Engineering sub-processes from the perspective of
1. Existing industry standard (i.e., current state-of-the art)
2. Emerging trend not widely implemented
3. Idea for improvement
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Fear Tigers Not Mice
Work to identify risks and decide how to best handle them.
In the absence of periodic focus on risks your program teams will focus on accomplishable tasks.
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Concluding Thoughts
Each of you can implement systems engineering and/or risk management process improvements in areas you are responsible for, assuming existing company procedures do not already dictate a procedure. When company procedures exist, a new procedure “pilot” will many times be a good tack for gaining approval to proceed.
Suggestions for improvements in areas outside your responsibility may be considered and not implemented.
Choose wisely!