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What Next for

Faster, More Inclusive andSustainable Growth

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There are Short Term and Medium Term Challenges

Short Term : Reverse the current growth slowdown :

5.5 percent in 20121!"

#im $or %.5 to & percent in 201!1'

Longer Term : (et )ac* to high growth. This re+uiresaccelerating $rom 5.5, in 20121! to over -, in last twoears

This is ver di$$icult" especiall given the glo)al situation

Twelfth PlanStrategy

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Inclusiveness is a multi-dimensional concept :

Reduce povert

/mprove regional e+ualit across states and within states

/mprove conditions $or SCs" STs" Cs" Minorities

(enerate attractive emploment opportunities $or outh

Close gender gaps

Twelfth Plan lists 2 monitora!le indicators

Growth must not only be rapid, but also moreinclusive

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#verage (3 (rowth o$ 4 percent

#griculture (rowth o$ ' percent Reducing headcount povert ) 10 percentage point

(enerating 50 million wor* opportunities

liminating gender and social gap in education

Reducing /MR to 25" MMR to 100 and T6R to 2.1

nhance in$rastructure investment to -, o$ (3

#chieve universal road connectivit and access to power $or all

villages #ccess to )an*ing services $or -0 percent households

Ma7or wel$are )ene$its and su)sidies via #adhaar

25 Monitorable Targets, e.g.

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There are two routes to inclusiveness

through higher growth which e8pands income and emplomentopportunities

through government propoor programmes which target poorergroups

oth are important. Twel$th 3lan com)ines the propoor programmeapproach with e$$orts to get a growth pattern which is $aster andinherentl more inclusive

Two routes are mutuall rein$orcing

9igh growth generates more revenues" to $inance inclusivenessprogrammes

Man inclusiveness programmes health and education;contri)ute to growth

Strategy for chieving !nclusiveness

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Must increase the rate o$ investment" especiall in in$rastructure

omestic savings must increase even more to reduce the investmentsaving gap which is necessar to *eep the Current #ccount e$icit

under control

(overnment dissavings must )e eliminated. This means $iscal de$icit

must )e reduced

(rowth o$ su)sidies has to )e contained

&5, o$ the investment in the econom is private investment household

plus corporate;

oth the Centre and the States have to create an ecosstem that

encourages private investment /n$rastructure" especiall +ualit o$ power" and availa)ilit o$ s*ills is

critical

Macro"#conomic $hallenges in chieving%igh Growth

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Twel$th 3lan sets am)itious targets $or 6lagship 3rogrammes in

areas o$ 9ealth" ducation" Rural in$rastructure"

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4 percent (3 growth re+uires % percent growth in energ suppl$rom all sources

ur $ossil $uel resources are limited" and our import dependence isalread high

nhanced nerg $$icienc in all sectors

>e need to push push $or renewa)le nerg: >ind" Solar and Storage

9dro

i$$icult 3olic /ssues: Coal vs. 6orest Cover 3etroleum 3rice istortions

=atural (as 8ploration 6ramewor* #ll nerg 3rices: Coal" 3etroleum product" =atural (as and

lectric power are currentl under priced. 6uel ad7ustment is

needed

#nergy

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Management o$ water resource is a ma7or challenge. stimateso$ water availa)ilit have )een optimistic

Twel$th 3lan proposes modi$ied #/3 and e8panded>atershed Management 3rogramme

>ater sector needs )etter Regulator 6ramewor*

=ew (roundwater ater Regulator #uthorities in each state

=ational >ater 6ramewor*

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12th 3lan goal o$ 4, inclusivve growth is not a $oregone

conclusion epends on di$$icult polic decisions to )e ta*en ) Centre and

States

6or the $irst time 3lan presents three scenarios

Strong Inclusive "rowth #$

Insufficient %ction & to &'$

Polic( log)am to '$

#nthing much less than 4, will not satis$ aspirations o$ the

people

lternative Scenarios

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Thank You