12th December 2018 - JICA · 2019. 4. 11. · 12th December 2018. 12th December 2018 2NDJOINT...
45
12 th December 2018 2 ND JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE ( DRAFT FINAL REPORT) AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop A-4-73
Transcript of 12th December 2018 - JICA · 2019. 4. 11. · 12th December 2018. 12th December 2018 2NDJOINT...
12th December 2018 2ND JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE
( DRAFT FINAL REPORT)
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-73
JCC
TIME TABLE FOR 2ND JOINT COORDINATION COMMITTEE (DRAFT
FINAL REPORT) ON THE PROJECT FOR MASTER PLAN STUDY ON
NATIONAL POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA
VENUE: MINISTER’S CONFERENCE ROOM
PLACE: 4TH FLOOR, FEDERAL MINISTRY OF POWER FEDERAL SECRETARIAT
DATE: 12TH DECEMBER, 2018.
Time Event/Activity Action by
14:00-14:10 Opening Remarks
from the Federal Ministry of Power
FMPWH
14:10-14:20 Introduction All
14:20-14:30 Key note address JICA Nigeria Office
14:30-14:40 Introduction Mr. Makoto Abe
14:40-14:55 Organizations, Policies and Regulations Mr. Naoki Hara
14:55-15:10 Power Demand Forecasts Mr. Makoto Abe
15:10-15:30 Power Generation Development Plan Mr. Kyoji Fujii
15:30-15:45 Tea Break ~
15:50-16:10 Transmission network development
plan
Mr. Karvelis Georgios
16:10-16:25 Environmental and Social
Considerations
Mr. Kazuhiro Ishiura
16:25-16:40 Economic and Financial Analysis Mr. Naoki Hara
16:40-16:55 Recommendations for Realizing the
Master Plan
Mr. Masatsugu Komiya,
16:55-17:15 General discussion All
17:15-17:20 Closing remarks
from the Federal Ministry of Power
FMPWH
Note:
FMPWH- Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing,
TCN- Transmission Company of Nigeria
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-74
面談議事録
業 務 名 ナイジェリア国電力マスタープラン策定プロジェクト（DFR 現地調査）
場 所 FMPWH, MINISTER’S CONFERENCE ROOM
日 時 2018年 12月 12日（水）14:30～17:30
面 談 相 手 Attendance List参照
(FMPWH, TCN, NERC, ECN, WB,
JICA)
コンサルタン
ト 側 出席 者
八千代エンジニヤリング㈱ 小宮、阿部、不二葦、原、浦部（記）
【議事概要】
第二回 JCCの開催。以下のプログラムの通り進行した。
・Opening Remarks (FMPWH Mr. Ajayi)
・Introduction
・Key note address (JICA Mr. Komori)
・Presentation of DFR
- Introduction (Mr. Abe)
- Organizations, Policies and Regulations (Mr. Hara)
- Power Demand Forecasts (Mr. Abe)
- Power Generation Development Plan (Mr. Fujii)
- Transmission network development plan (Mr. Georgios)
- Environmental and Social Considerations (Mr. Ishiura)
- Economic and Financial Analysis (Mr. Hara)
- Recommendations for Realizing the Master Plan (Mr.Komiya, Mr.Hara)
途中会場変更が必要になったことなどから、進行が遅れディスカッションは翌日の
Seminarに持ち越しとなった。
以 上
AA4 Record of JCC and TWG Workshop
A-4-75
A-5 Record of Other Activities
18th February 2016 Power transmission plan Workshop
A-5 Record of Other Activities
A-5-1
Mod
ern
Pow
er F
low
B
y Su
dip
toB
ho
wm
ik
Co
nfi
den
tial
Def
init
ion
: An
alys
is c
on
cern
ed w
ith
des
crib
ing
th
e o
per
atin
g s
tate
of
the
enti
re
Pow
er S
yste
m.
Pow
er F
low
To
ol:
Fun
dam
enta
l to
ol f
or
mo
st s
yste
m o
per
atio
n a
nd
p
lan
nin
g s
tud
ies
Use
s:
1.Sy
stem
Op
erat
ion
Stu
die
s
2.Sy
stem
Pla
nn
ing
Stu
die
s (i
ncl
ud
es G
ener
ato
r Pl
ann
ing
, Tra
nsm
issi
on
pla
nn
ing
)
Fou
nd
atio
nal
to
ol f
or
:
1.O
pti
mal
Po
wer
Flo
w
Eco
no
mic
Dis
tpat
ch
Min
imal
Lo
ss (
Rea
l an
d R
eact
ive)
Rea
ctiv
e D
evic
e in
stal
lati
on
Etc.
2
Pow
er F
low
An
alys
is
Co
nfi
den
tial
2.St
abili
ty A
nal
ysis
Tran
sien
t st
abili
ty A
nal
ysis
Smal
l Sig
nal
sta
bili
ty a
nal
ysis
Vo
ltag
e st
abili
ty a
nal
ysis
Tim
elin
es o
f St
ud
ies:
1.O
rder
of
few
cyc
les
(1 c
ycle
1/5
0 s)
: Tra
nsi
ent
stab
ility
2.Fe
w s
eco
nd
s: S
mal
l sig
nal
sta
bili
ty,
3.Se
con
ds
to M
inu
tes:
Vo
ltag
e st
abili
ty s
tud
ies
4.>
Sev
eral
Min
ute
s : (
Als
o c
alle
d s
tead
y st
ate)
, Po
wer
flo
w,
Op
tim
al p
ow
er f
low
3
Pow
er F
low
An
alys
is -
Use
s
Co
nfi
den
tial
Stat
e: A
ny
vary
ing
set
of
qu
anti
ties
th
at p
rovi
de
a co
mp
lete
des
crip
tio
n o
f th
e sy
stem
. Ex:
SET
1: V
olt
age
Mag
nit
ud
e an
d A
ng
le
at a
ll b
use
s in
sys
tem
*
SET
2: R
eal a
nd
Rea
ctiv
e Po
wer
inje
ctio
ns
at a
ll b
use
s
SET
3: C
urr
ent
mag
nit
ud
e an
d a
ng
le a
t al
l bu
ses
in s
yste
m
In r
ealit
y th
e kn
ow
n a
nd
un
kno
wn
are
:
4
Stat
e an
d it
s M
ean
ing
Type
ofBu
sVa
riables
Given
(Kno
wns)
Varia
bles
Foun
d(Unk
nowns)
Gene
rator
Realpo
wer
(P)
Volta
geangle()
Volta
gemagnitude
(V)
Reactivepo
wer
(Q)
Load
orgene
rator
Realpo
wer
(P)
Volta
geangle(
)Re
activepo
wer
(Q)
Volta
gemagnitude
(V)
Slack
Volta
geangle()
Realpo
wer
(P)
Volta
gemagnitude
(V)
Reactivepo
wer
(Q)
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-2
Co
nfi
den
tial
5
Net
wo
rk R
epre
sen
tati
on
No
de
-Bre
aker
Bu
s -
Bra
nch
1.SC
AD
A D
ata
(ass
um
e B
alan
ced
3 p
has
e sy
stem
1 Ph
ase
equ
ival
ent
rep
rese
nta
tio
n)
2.St
ate
Esti
mat
ion
(w
ith
To
po
log
y Pr
oce
ssin
g).
Ass
um
e co
rrec
t
par
amet
ers
3.N
od
e-B
reak
er M
od
el
4.R
edu
ce in
to B
us-
Bra
nch
mo
del
, use
d f
or
inp
ut
to P
ow
erfl
ow
(*)
(*)M
ost
mo
der
n t
oo
ls a
lso
per
form
po
wer
flo
wo
n n
od
e-b
reak
er m
od
el
Co
nfi
den
tial
Giv
en k
no
wn
qu
anti
ties
cal
cula
tes
un
kno
wn
qu
anti
ties
usi
ng
mat
hem
atic
al a
lgo
rith
m o
f su
cces
sive
ap
pro
xim
atio
n
by
iter
atio
n
New
ton
Rap
hso
n (
Full
mo
del
ling
, Ro
bu
st a
nd
fas
t it
erat
ion
if n
ear
solu
tio
n)
Mo
dif
ied
New
ton
Rap
hso
n (
sim
plif
ies
slo
pe,
mo
re
iter
atio
ns,
wo
rks
bet
ter
for
som
e ca
ses)
Dec
ou
ple
d p
ow
er f
low
(D
eco
up
les
Rea
l an
d R
eact
ive
po
wer
, wo
rks
wel
l wit
h f
lat
star
t, b
ut
no
t if
hig
h
resi
stan
ce a
nd
co
nd
uct
ance
exi
sts)
6
Pow
erfl
ow
too
l
Co
nfi
den
tial
Hig
hly
No
nlin
ear
equ
atio
n (
du
e to
sin
e co
sin
e te
rms)
7
Pow
erfl
ow
intu
itio
n
•Sim
plif
icat
ion
fo
r B
ran
ch f
low
s:R
eal P
ow
er P
ij: p
rop
ort
ion
alto
Bij
(su
sep
tan
ce)
* (
i–j)
Rea
ctiv
e Po
wer
Qij
: pro
po
rtio
nal
to
Bij
|Vi|
|Vj|
Co
nfi
den
tial
8
Pow
er F
low
Exa
mp
le –
Flo
w D
irec
tio
n B
ran
ch
anal
ysis
SLA
CK
1 |0
1.01
|0.
01
0.99
57 |-
0.7
Vo
ltag
e co
ntr
olle
d b
us
P: 2
80 M
WQ
: 100
Mva
r
P: 1
40
MW
P: 4
0 M
W
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-3
Co
nfi
den
tial
9
Scen
ario
-Ef
fect
of
Incr
ease
in L
oad
If R
eal L
oad
was
to
incr
ease
to
300
MW
?
Wh
at C
han
ged
?
On
ly R
eal P
ow
er a
t lo
ad w
hic
h b
y d
efin
itio
n s
ho
uld
be
pic
ked
up
b
y sl
ack
bu
s.
Slac
k b
us/
Gen
erat
or:
Sh
ou
ld b
e ch
ose
n ju
dic
iou
sly,
usu
ally
a la
rge
gen
erat
or
wit
h g
ove
rno
r co
ntr
ol a
nd
op
erat
ing
res
erve
Wh
at E
lse
Ch
ang
ed?
1.D
ue
to in
crea
sed
flo
w t
he
Rea
l po
wer
loss
of
the
syst
em
2.A
ng
le a
t Lo
ad b
us
Co
nfi
den
tial
10
Scen
ario
-Ef
fect
of
Incr
ease
in L
oad
-R
eact
ive
If R
eact
ive
Load
was
to
incr
ease
to
120
Mva
r?W
hat
Ch
ang
ed?
On
ly R
eact
ive
Pow
er a
t lo
ad w
hic
h b
y d
efin
itio
n s
ho
uld
be
pic
ked
u
p b
y sl
ack
bu
s.
Bu
t!!
This
wo
uld
ch
ang
e th
e V
olt
age
at B
us
2 an
d t
hu
s G
ener
ato
rs a
t th
is b
us
pic
ks u
p s
om
e o
f th
e re
acti
ve p
ow
er in
crea
se
Hen
ce b
y d
eno
tin
g V
olt
age
con
tro
lled
bu
sw
e ar
e d
esig
nat
ing
G
ener
ato
rs h
ave
auto
mat
ic V
AR
co
ntr
ol o
n t
hei
r fi
eld
win
din
g.
Wh
ich
lead
s to
sh
arin
g o
f re
acti
ve P
ow
er b
y al
l su
ch g
ener
ato
rs
Alt
ern
ativ
e:W
e fi
x th
e re
acti
ve p
ow
er o
utp
ut
of
the
Gen
erat
or
if
we
kno
w t
his
val
ue
and
co
nve
rt t
he
bu
s to
a lo
ad b
us
(P,Q
bu
s)
Co
nfi
den
tial
11
Scen
ario
-Ef
fect
of
Lin
e lo
ss
If L
ine
1-2
Cir
cuit
1 w
as t
o b
e o
uta
ged
?W
hat
Ch
ang
ed?
•On
ly p
aram
eter
of
line.
Th
us
gen
erat
ors
kee
p t
he
sam
eo
utp
ut
(Exc
ept
slac
k)
•Flo
ws
will
ch
ang
e. H
ence
th
e lo
ad b
us
and
Gen
erat
or
bu
san
gle
s w
ill c
han
ge
•Lo
ad b
us
Vo
ltag
e w
ill c
han
ge.
•Sin
ce t
he
sam
e p
ow
er f
low
s an
d t
he
resi
stan
ce o
f o
ne
pat
h in
crea
ses.
Rea
l po
wer
loss
incr
ease
s (p
icke
d u
p b
ysl
ack)
•Rea
ctiv
e p
ow
er “
loss
” m
ay in
crea
se o
r d
ecre
ase
dep
end
ing
on
Rea
ctan
ce ,
char
gin
g s
use
pta
nce
etc.
Co
nfi
den
tial
Slac
k G
ener
ato
r:
Sho
uld
be
use
d f
or
stu
die
s w
her
e sm
all c
han
ges
occ
ur
toal
read
y so
lved
cas
eC
han
ges
su
ch a
s sm
all g
ener
ato
r re
sch
edu
ling
/ Lo
adal
loca
tio
n, s
ing
le li
ne
loss
, sm
all t
ran
smis
sio
n a
dd
itio
n.
Typ
ical
ly u
sed
fo
r Sy
stem
op
erat
ion
stu
die
s
Dis
trib
ute
d G
ener
ato
r:A
ssu
me
we
kno
w t
he
par
tici
pat
ion
of
the
gen
erat
ors
(hav
e g
ove
rno
r co
ntr
ol/R
eser
ve)
Use
d f
or
larg
e ch
ang
es in
sys
tem
su
ch a
s la
rge
tran
smis
sio
n b
uild
ou
tLa
rge
gen
erat
or
incl
usi
on
Larg
e lo
ad c
han
ges
Usu
ally
fo
r lo
ng
ter
m p
lan
nin
g12
Slac
k G
ener
ato
r vs
dis
trib
ute
d g
ener
ato
r
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-4
Co
nfi
den
tial
Fixe
d t
ap T
ran
sfo
rmer
s:
•Sim
ilar
to b
ran
ches
, use
sim
ilar
anal
ysis
Load
Tap
Tra
nsf
orm
ers:
Tap
s ca
n c
han
ge
auto
mat
ical
ly. P
SS/E
can
sim
ula
te t
his
.
Har
der
to
an
alyz
e in
tro
du
ces
no
n-l
inea
riti
esif
dis
cret
e
tap
ste
ps
is s
imu
late
d
Co
nti
nu
ou
s ta
p s
tep
s m
ake
it m
ore
tra
ctab
le b
ut
may
no
t b
e p
ract
ical
Oth
er E
xoti
c tr
ansf
orm
ers
(ph
ase
shif
ters
, 3 w
ind
ing
)
13
Tran
sfo
rmer
s (2
win
din
g)
Co
nfi
den
tial
Fixe
d S
hu
nts
: •C
ho
ose
to
incl
ud
e th
em in
sim
ula
tio
n o
r n
ot
Swit
ched
Sh
un
ts:
Sim
ilar
to t
ran
sfo
rmer
tap
, can
ch
ang
e au
tom
atic
ally
.
Har
der
to
an
alyz
e in
tro
du
ces
no
n-l
inea
riti
esif
dis
cret
e
shu
nt
step
s ar
e si
mu
late
d
Co
nti
nu
ou
s sw
itch
ste
ps
mak
e it
mo
re t
ract
able
bu
t m
ay
no
t b
e p
ract
ical
14
Shu
nts
Co
nfi
den
tial
To V
AR
co
ntr
ol o
r N
ot?
Prac
tica
l to
allo
w V
AR
co
ntr
ols
to
be
enfo
rced
. Lea
ds
to
con
tro
l bu
s vo
ltag
e to
dev
iate
VA
R li
mit
s m
igh
t m
ake
Vo
ltag
e p
rofi
le in
feas
ible
. Nee
d
to c
hec
k fo
r p
rob
lem
s
On
ce li
mit
is r
each
ed w
ith
in it
erat
ion
it s
tays
on
its
limit
for
furt
her
iter
atio
ns,
th
us
lead
ing
to
un
wan
ted
solu
tio
ns
Can
co
ntr
ol t
his
by
on
ly a
llow
ing
lim
its
at la
ter
po
int
in
iter
atio
n15
Gen
erat
or
VA
R c
on
tro
l lim
its
Co
nfi
den
tial
Pow
er f
low
do
es N
OT
enfo
rce
thes
e lim
its!
!:
Post
Sim
ula
tio
n: N
eed
to
ch
eck
all t
hes
e lo
adin
g v
alu
es,
for
infe
asib
le s
olu
tio
ns
Som
etim
es t
hes
e in
dic
ate
pro
ble
ms
in t
he
par
amet
ers/
sett
ing
s lo
cal t
o h
eavi
ly lo
aded
dev
ices
QV
an
alys
is a
t lo
w/h
igh
vo
ltag
e b
use
s p
rovi
de
go
od
un
der
stan
din
g o
f re
acti
ve m
arg
ins
PV a
nal
ysis
at
low
/hig
h a
ng
le b
use
s, in
terf
aces
, pro
vid
e
go
od
un
der
stan
din
g o
f R
eal m
arg
ins
16
Bra
nch
, Tr
ansf
orm
er, I
nte
rfac
e lim
its,
(Q
V, P
V)
curv
es
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-5
Co
nfi
den
tial
1.D
ivid
e sy
stem
into
are
as a
nd
an
alyz
e ea
ch a
rea
2.Su
mm
ariz
e to
tal s
yste
m g
ener
ato
r an
d lo
ad
3.C
on
cen
trat
e o
n p
ock
ets
of
hea
vily
load
ed/li
gh
tly
load
ed s
yste
ms
4.Li
gh
tly
load
ed/u
nco
nn
ecte
d r
adia
l lin
es p
rovi
de
larg
e
char
gin
g c
urr
ents
. Th
is le
ads
to r
eact
ive
pro
ble
ms
as
Gen
erat
ors
sta
rt a
bso
rbin
g r
eact
ive
po
wer
5.M
ay n
ot
con
verg
e, C
hec
k p
aram
eter
s an
d b
ran
ch
sum
mar
y
17
Wh
at a
bo
ut
Larg
er s
yste
ms
?
Co
nfi
den
tial
1.C
hec
k Sy
stem
su
mm
ary,
larg
e d
iffe
ren
ces
in r
eal r
eact
ive
gen
erat
ion
and
load
2.M
ay in
dic
ate
volt
age
colla
pse
sit
uat
ion
. Ch
eck
Gen
erat
or
VA
R
ou
tpu
ts
3.Fi
x ta
ps
to n
om
inal
val
ues
, In
clu
de
shu
nts
if n
eed
ed a
s fi
xed
, Fix
swit
ched
sh
un
ts
Last
res
ort
:
Incr
ease
to
lera
nce
val
ues
Dec
reas
e Si
mu
lati
on
co
un
t an
d s
tart
wit
h d
eco
up
led
an
d t
hen
new
ton
po
wer
flo
w
Try
incl
ud
ing
VA
R c
on
tro
l lat
er in
th
e it
erat
ion
18
No
n C
on
verg
ence
Co
nfi
den
tial
An
alys
is o
f b
ran
ch p
aram
eter
s/fl
ow
s im
po
rtan
t
Rea
l po
wer
flo
w in
a b
ran
ch p
rop
ort
ion
al t
o a
ng
le d
iffe
ren
ce
Rea
ctiv
e p
ow
er p
rop
ort
ion
al t
o v
olt
ages
Jud
icio
us
use
of
Slac
k b
us/
Dis
trib
ute
d b
use
s
Ch
eck
area
su
mm
ary
for
larg
e sy
stem
s (l
ike
loss
es, l
arg
est
load
ing
)
Larg
e an
gle
/vo
ltag
e d
iffe
ren
ce b
etw
een
en
ds
of
a b
ran
ch s
ho
uld
be
inve
stig
ated
For
no
n-c
on
verg
ence
ch
eck
par
amet
ers,
load
ing
of
line/
Tran
sfo
rmer
,
Gen
erat
or
ou
tpu
ts
19
REC
AP
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion P
lannin
g alig
ned w
ith S
ystem
Ope
ratio
n
5 Yea
r Plan
ning C
ycles
Long
Ran
ge P
lans
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-6
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Gene
ratio
n Plan
ning C
riteria
Loss
Of L
oad P
roba
bility
(LOL
P) <
0.45
% (4
0 hou
rs pe
r yea
r)
Plan
ning
Rese
rve M
argin
: 10%
-30
% of
total
syste
m pe
ak lo
ad
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion P
lannin
g Crite
riaSt
eady
Stat
e Per
iod•
Prim
ary (
n-1)
: Lo
ading
<=
100%
of em
erge
ncy r
ating
No lo
ss of
stab
ility
No in
terru
ption
of su
pply/
servi
ceNo
gene
ratio
n disp
atch o
ut of
merit
orde
r•
Seco
ndar
y (n-
2):
Cons
ider lo
ss of
seco
nd el
emen
t Pr
opos
e pru
dent
upgr
ades
•
Volta
ge:
+/-5
% of
nomi
nal f
or no
rmal
oper
ation
+/-
5% of
pre-
distur
banc
e for
n-1
Tran
sient
Perio
d•
Freq
uenc
y:<=
+/-
.1% (n
orma
l) <=
+/-
2.5%
(sys
tem st
ress
)
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning Vo
ltage
Stab
ility C
riteria
P-V
(MW
Mar
gin) a
nd Q
-V (M
VAR
Marg
in)
analy
ses a
re co
nduc
ted w
ith a
Gove
rnor
Pow
er
Flow*
* Sim
ulates
the p
eriod
after
the t
rans
ient p
eriod
but b
efore
man
ual
adjus
tmen
t.
MW M
argi
nMV
AR(R
eact
ive)
Marg
inCa
tegor
y B –
Sing
leCo
nting
ency
Area
Load
or pa
th flo
w >
5%Ba
sed o
n Wor
st Ca
se S
cena
rio
Categ
oryC
–Do
uble
Conti
ngen
cies o
r Bus
outag
esAr
ea lo
ador
path
flow
> 2.5
%50
%of
Categ
ory B
Req
uirem
ent
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-7
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Deter
mine
Tem
pera
ture-
Dema
nd re
lation
ship
Selec
t the e
xtrem
e tem
pera
ture
cond
ition u
pon w
hich g
ener
ation
and t
rans
miss
ion ex
pans
ionpla
nning
wou
ld be
base
d.–
1-in-
5, 1-
in-10
….
Adjus
t hist
orica
l pea
k dem
ands
to the
selec
ted ex
treme
tempe
ratur
e
Fore
cast
dema
nd
60708090100
110
6070
8090
100
110
3-Da
y W
eigh
ted
Ave
. Tem
p. (d
eg. F
)
Substation Load (MW)
Act
ual
Sta.
Rosa
Load
Load
from
Tem
p.Re
gres
s.
Actu
al
Load
16
21
2732
3843
°C
Tem
pera
ture
°F
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Deve
lop se
ries o
f Tra
nsmi
ssion
Plan
ning B
ase C
ases
thru
10 ye
arpe
riod
True
up Y
ear 1
Plan
ning B
ase C
ases
with
Sys
tem O
pera
tions
-Extr
emely
impo
rtant
to ha
ve a
Year
1 ba
se ca
se th
at re
pres
ents
stres
sed o
pera
ting
cond
itions
Deve
lop P
eak,
Partia
l Pea
k and
Off-
Peak
Bas
e Cas
es fo
r Ana
lysis
-For
relat
ively
flat lo
ad pr
ofile
it may
only
be ne
cess
ary t
o run
peak
base
case
-Still
impo
rtant
to ru
n var
ious s
ensit
ivitie
s to t
est th
e loa
d flow
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning Powe
r Flo
w An
alysis
Deter
mine
if the
re ar
e any
norm
al (N
-0) o
verlo
ads
Deter
mine
if the
re ar
e any
emer
genc
y ove
rload
s (N-
1)-R
un ev
ery c
ontin
genc
y on p
eak,
partia
l pea
k and
peak
cond
ition
Deter
mine
if the
re an
y pro
blems
with
N-2
conti
ngen
cies
Deve
lop so
lution
s-R
econ
ducto
rline
s-In
stall n
ew lin
es-R
econ
figur
e line
s
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
sient
and V
oltag
e Stab
ility A
nalys
is
Chec
k N-1
and N
-2 co
nting
encie
s for
volta
ge an
d stab
ility p
roble
msDe
velop
solut
ions
-Shu
nt Ca
pacit
ors
-SVC
s, St
atcon
s-S
ynch
rono
us C
onde
nsor
s-S
eries
Cap
acito
rsCo
nside
r und
ervo
ltage
load
shed
ding
and
spec
ial p
rotec
tion
sche
me-T
rip ta
rgete
d loa
d to p
reve
nt vo
ltage
colla
pse
-Insta
ll out-
of-ste
p bloc
king a
nd tr
ipping
prote
ction
-Islan
ding s
chem
es fo
r con
trolle
d sep
arati
on
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-8
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning
Tran
smiss
ion
Plan
ning Proj
ect J
ustif
icatio
nRe
liabil
ity P
rojec
ts-G
rid co
de vi
olatio
n-S
eriou
s los
s of lo
ad or
casc
ading
outag
es
Deve
lop M
ultipl
e Al
terna
tives
-Find
leas
t cos
t alte
rnati
ve
Utiliz
e Cos
t-Ben
efit A
nalys
is for
Tra
nsmi
ssion
Pro
jects
-Con
sider
using
VOS
/EUE
to ev
aluate
bene
fit of
instal
ling t
rans
miss
ion up
grad
eve
rsus s
olving
the p
roble
m by
using
an S
PS-C
ost b
enefi
t rati
o can
be us
ed to
rank
proje
cts
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-9
3rd 4th 5th May 2016Power Demand Forecast Workshop
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-10
1
Pow
erD
eman
d Fo
reca
stin
g M
odel
Apr
il 2
016
JIC
A S
tudy
Tea
m
2
Day
Cha
pter
Pag
e
1st
2nd
3rd
1.G
row
th ra
te, I
nten
sity
and
Ela
stic
ity
2.M
etho
dolo
gy o
f Pow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
stin
g
3.E
cono
mic
Equ
atio
ns fo
r Dem
and
Fore
cast
s
4.H
ow to
use
Sim
ple
E
5.M
odel
bui
ldin
g of
Pow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
sts
4 23 41 54 81
Con
tent
s
3
1kt
oeK
ilo to
n oi
l equ
ival
ent
Cru
de o
il 1t
on=1
toe
1kg=
10,0
00kc
al2
GW
hG
iga
Wat
t hou
r1G
Wh=
1,00
0,00
0kW
h1G
Wh=
0.08
6kto
e1k
Wh=
860k
cal
3m
mB
tuM
illio
n B
ritis
h th
erm
alun
it1t
oe=4
0mm
Btu
1B
tu =
0.2
5kca
l
410
00cf
1000
cub
ic fe
et
1000
cf28
.5 m
3 (
1m3
= 35
cf)
5TJ
Tera
Joul
es1T
J=24
toe
Uni
t con
verte
rs
8N
atur
al g
as
1m3
= 8,
000k
cal
9,50
0kca
l9
LNG
1 kg
= 1
3,00
0kca
l10
Impo
rt C
oal
1kg
= 5
,500
kcal
6,
000k
cal
11C
rude
oil
1kg
= 1
0000
kca
l12
LPG
1kg
= 1
2,00
0 kc
al13
Fuel
oil
1lite
r =9,
300k
cal
9,80
0kca
l14
Woo
ds
1kg
=4,
000k
cal
4,50
0kca
l
4
(1)
Conc
ept
Ener
gy d
eman
d is
pro
port
ion
to G
DP
grow
th r
ate.
Usu
ally
we
use
“Gro
wth
rat
e” fo
r an
alyz
ing
the
rela
tion
betw
een
ener
gy
dem
and
and
GD
P tr
end.
1-1
Gro
wth
rate
Whe
n G
DP
grow
th r
ate
is 8
% in
a c
ount
ry,
Pow
er d
eman
d gr
owth
rat
e is
8
10.
Whe
n Po
pula
tion
grow
th r
ate
is 1
% p
er y
ear
in a
cou
ntry
GD
P ba
sica
lly
incr
ease
s w
ith 3
% p
er y
ear.
1.G
row
th ra
te, I
nten
sity
and
Ela
stic
ity
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-11
5
(2) T
wo
type
of G
row
th ra
te Ann
ual g
row
th ra
tes
= ((b
/ a)
-1)*
100
Aver
age
grow
th ra
tes
= ((
f / a
)^(1
/5)-
1)*1
00
Dat
a: P
ower
dem
and
fore
cast
ing
mod
el o
f PS
MP
2015
, Nig
eria
a
b
c
d
e
f
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020/1
5No
minal G
DP (M
P)Ma
rket p
riceBil
lion NG
N96,
983105
,306
114,88
2125
,885
138,55
5153
,104
9.6 G
rowth
rate
G%7.6
8.69.1
9.610.
110.
5Re
al GDP
(FC)
Real a
t 2005
price
Billion
NGN
26,178
27,217
28,442
29,864
31,506
33,396
5.0 G
rowth
rate
G%3.0
4.04.5
5.05.5
6.0De
flator
2005
100200
5=100
369.0
386.0
403.8
422.2
441.5
461.4
4.6 G
rowth
rate
G%4.6
4.64.6
4.64.6
4.5Sec
toral G
DP at
2005
Agricu
lture
Billion
NGN
10,209
10,376
10,592
10,860
11,189
11,613
2.6<R
eal GD
P>Ind
ustry
Billion
NGN
5,236
5,393
5,597
5,853
6,171
6,591
4.7Ser
vices
Billion
NGN
10,733
11,447
12,253
13,150
14,146
15,192
7.2GD
P (FC
)Bil
lion NG
N26,
17827,
21728,
44229,
86431,
50633,
3965.0 6
Ex1-
1Th
e ta
ble
is t
he g
row
th r
ate
of G
DP
per
capi
ta o
f N
iger
ia
(1)
How
man
y ye
ars
is in
the
per
iod
of e
ach
bloc
k ?
(2)
Wha
t va
lues
are
the
GD
P pe
r ca
pita
eac
h ye
ar ?
(3)E
xerc
ise
for G
row
th ra
te
At=
At-1
*(1+
r/100
)nr:
gro
wth
rate
n: p
erio
d
7
Ex1-
2N
iger
ian
popu
latio
n ar
e 14
0 m
illio
n in
200
5 an
d 18
4 m
illio
n in
201
5, w
hat
is t
he p
erce
ntag
e of
the
gro
wth
rat
e?
(1)
How
man
y ye
ars
is t
he p
erio
d?
(2)
Wha
t pe
rcen
tage
is t
he g
row
th r
ate?
Def
initi
on:
R= (
(B/
A)^
(1/n
)-1)
*100
A in
200
5,
B
in 2
015,
n
: Y e
ars
(3)
How
man
y po
pula
tion
does
the
cou
ntry
hav
e in
203
0?
Cond
ition
: F
utur
e gr
owth
rat
e is
+2.
6 %
per
yea
r.2.810 270
8
Ex1-
3M
ake
the
annu
al g
row
th r
ate
and
the
aver
age
grow
th
rate
for
the
follo
win
g da
ta.
Annu
al G
R =
(41
4 /
369
–1)*
100
= 1
2.2
%
Aver
age
GR
= (
(510
/ 36
9)^
(1/5
)-1)
*100
= 6
.7 %
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-12
9
Ex1
-4M
ake
annu
al g
row
th ra
te a
nd a
vera
ge g
row
th ra
te fo
r the
fo
llow
ing
GD
P by
sec
tor
Real
GDP a
t 200
5 pric
e 20
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
15Ag
ricult
ureBil
lion N
GN8,4
469,1
479,5
319,8
1610
,170
10,20
9Ind
ustry
Billio
n NGN
5,119
5,444
5,446
5,267
5,339
5,236
Servi
ceBil
lion N
GN7,1
177,1
877,7
158,8
589,9
1610
,733
Total
Billio
n NGN
20,68
221
,778
22,69
323
,941
25,42
526
,178
Grow
th rat
e of G
DP at
2001
2011
/2010
2012
/2011
2013
/2012
2014
/2013
2015
/2014
2015
/2010
Agric
ulture
%8.3
4.23.0
3.60.4
3.9Ind
ustry
%6.4
0.0-3.
31.4
-1.9
0.5Se
rvice
%1.0
7.414
.811
.98.2
8.6To
tal%
5.34.2
5.56.2
3.04.8
10
(1)C
once
pt
It is
use
d a
ratio
bet
wee
n en
ergy
con
sum
ptio
n an
dec
onom
ic d
ata.
We
call
it “In
tens
ity”.
Inte
nsity
to G
DP,
Pop
ulat
ion
and
Indu
stria
l out
put a
reus
ed fo
r ene
rgy
dem
and
fore
cast
mod
els.
Ex1:
En
ergy
Int
ensi
ty t
o po
pula
tion
= P
rimar
y en
ergy
sup
ply
/ Po
pula
tion
Ex2:
En
ergy
Int
ensi
ty t
o G
DP
= P
rimar
y en
ergy
sup
ply
/ G
DP
Ex3:
Ener
gy I
nten
sity
to
indu
stria
l out
put
= P
rimar
y en
ergy
sup
ply
/ in
dust
rial o
utpu
t
1-2
Inte
nsity
11
(2)E
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n / G
DP
or P
opul
atio
n
Inte
nsity
cal
cula
tion
in 2
011
GD
P at
200
5 pr
ice
Sou
rce
: Wor
ld b
ank
data
base
201
4
Nig
eria
Tanz
ania
Sou
th
Afri
caG
hana
Japa
nU
SA
Pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
(TW
h)33
5 23
7 9
1,00
3 4,
127
GD
P (B
illion
at 2
005
US
D)
166
2130
017
4,62
213
,847
Pop
ulat
ion
(Mill
ions
)16
4 44
52
25
12
8 31
2
Pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion/
GD
P (k
Wh
per U
SD
)0.
20
0.24
0.
79
0.50
0.
22
0.30
Pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
per c
apita
(k
Wh
/ per
son)
202
116
4,60
434
47,
848
13,2
46
12
Japa
nU
SA
UK
Ger
man
yIro
n10
011
811
210
3C
hem
ical
100
118
127
Pap
er10
016
1C
emen
t10
018
011
0
Sour
ce :
The
data
in 1
998,
Pu
blis
hed
by Co
mpr
ehen
sive
ene
rgy
com
mitt
ee
in M
ETI
(3)E
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n / I
ndus
trial
pro
duct
ion
inde
x
Sinc
e 19
73, J
apan
has
bee
n m
ade
an e
ffort
for
ener
gy
cons
erva
tion
in in
dust
rial s
ecto
rs.
In t
he c
urre
nt y
ears
, ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
inte
nsity
in J
apan
is
the
mos
t ex
celle
nt in
the
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries.
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-13
13
(4)C
ompa
rison
of E
nerg
y C
onsu
mpt
ion
to G
DP
by C
ount
ry
1.00
2.73
2.05
1.58
1.50
Japa
nU
.S.
U.K
.Fr
ance
Ger
man
y
Japa
n ha
s a
low
inte
nsity
of e
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n pe
r GD
Pco
mpa
red
to o
ther
indu
stria
lized
cou
ntie
s in
the
year
of 2
000.
*Th
e va
lues
are
Fi
nal e
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n (t
oe)
/ Re
al G
DP
(199
5pr
ices
) w
hen
Japa
n is
set
by
1.00
.
Sour
ce:
Nat
ural
Res
ourc
es a
nd E
nerg
y Ag
ency
in J
apan
14
(5)D
enom
inat
or fo
r Int
ensi
ty c
alcu
latio
nS
ecto
rD
enom
inat
orE
xam
ple
Cou
ntry
wid
eU
S$
base
GD
PU
S$
PP
P ba
se G
DP
Toe
/ US
$To
e / U
S$
(PP
P)
Indu
stry
Pro
duct
ion
ton
V alu
e ad
ded
Toe/
ton
Toe
/ US
$
Bui
ldin
gsFl
oor a
rea
Num
ber o
f per
son
Toe
/ m2
Toe
/ per
son
US
$ ba
se G
DP
& P
PP
GD
P in
Nig
eria
PP
P: P
urch
asin
g P
ower
Par
ity
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GDP
(Cur
rent
NGN
)Bi
llion
NGN
14,7
3518
,710
20,9
4124
,665
25,2
3655
,469
63,7
1372
,600
81,0
1090
,137
GR
%27
.011
.917
.82.
311
9.8
14.9
13.9
11.6
11.3
GDP
(Cur
rent
US$
)Bi
llion
US$
112
145
166
208
169
369
412
461
515
569
GR
%29
.614
.525
.0-1
8.5
117.
811
.612
.011
.710
.4GD
P (C
onsta
nt N
GN a
t 201
0)Bi
llion
NGN
39,1
5542
,370
45,2
6348
,101
51,4
3755
,469
58,1
8060
,670
63,9
4367
,977
GR
%8.
26.
86.
36.
97.
84.
94.
35.
46.
3GD
P (C
onsta
nt U
S$ a
t 200
5)Bi
llion
US$
112
121
130
138
147
159
167
174
183
195
GR
%8.
26.
86.
36.
97.
84.
94.
35.
46.
3GD
P, P
PP (C
urre
nt U
S$)
Billio
n US
$51
357
362
868
073
380
085
790
997
31,
049
GR
%11
.59.
78.
47.
79.
27.
16.
27.
07.
9GD
P, P
PP (C
onsta
nt U
S$ a
t 201
1)Bi
llion
US$
576
624
666
708
757
817
857
893
941
1,00
1 G
R%
8.2
6.8
6.3
6.9
7.8
4.9
4.3
5.4
6.3
15
(6)P
ower
inte
nsity
to G
DP
Def
initi
on :
Pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
/ G
DP
GD
P :
Rea
l GD
P at
200
5, th
e in
tens
ity a
fter 2
015
is e
stim
atio
n.
16
EX1-
5Ca
n yo
u m
ake
Pow
er in
tens
ity t
o po
pula
tion
in N
iger
ia
and
Japa
n?
(7)E
xerc
ise
for I
nten
sity
Pupu
latio
nPo
wer
Gene
ratio
nIn
tens
ity to
Po
pulat
ion
Pupu
latio
nPo
wer
Gene
ratio
nIn
tens
ity to
Po
pulat
ion
Milli
onGW
hkW
h/ p
erso
nM
illion
TWh
kWh/
per
son
2005
139.
624
,042
172.
220
0012
6.9
1,01
27,
974
2006
143.
323
,276
162.
420
0112
7.1
995
7,82
320
0714
7.2
22,8
8315
5.5
2002
127.
41,
009
7,91
620
0815
1.2
24,0
9515
9.4
2003
127.
799
87,
815
2009
155.
426
,032
167.
520
0412
7.8
1,02
98,
051
2010
159.
730
,081
188.
320
0512
7.8
1,04
98,
213
2011
164.
232
,989
200.
920
0612
7.8
1,05
48,
253
2012
168.
836
,031
213.
420
0712
7.8
1,08
58,
490
2013
173.
643
,183
248.
720
0812
7.7
1,03
18,
075
2014
178.
545
,728
256.
220
0912
7.6
1,00
07,
838
2015
183.
548
,740
265.
620
1012
7.5
1,06
88,
378
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-14
17
EX1-
6Co
uld
you
mak
e en
ergy
con
sum
ptio
n in
tens
ity t
o G
DP
in N
iger
ia a
nd J
apan
?
18
(1)C
once
ptW
hen
we
wan
t to
know
the
rela
tion
betw
een
econ
omic
gro
wth
an
d po
wer
con
sum
ptio
n, E
last
icity
is u
sefu
l to
anal
yze
it.P
ower
con
sum
ptio
n el
astic
ity to
GD
P=
Pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
grow
th ra
te /
GD
P gr
owth
rate
<Exa
mpl
e>
a.P
ower
con
sum
ptio
n of
Nig
eria
14.8
TW
hin
200
0
49.
8 T
Wh
in 2
015
Gro
wth
rat
e 8
.4 %
b.Re
al G
DP
(200
5 co
nsta
nt)
68bi
ll U
S$ in
200
0
2
00 b
ill U
S$ in
201
5
Gro
wth
rat
e 7
.5 %
c.El
asti
city
Elas
tici
ty t
o G
DP
= 8.
4 %
/ 7.
5% =
1.1
2
1-3
Ela
stic
ity
19
Gro
wth
rate
of
TPEC
(200
0 –
2010
)
Gro
wth
rate
of
GD
P(2
000
–20
10)
Elas
ticity
Nig
eria
3.37
%8.
80%
0.38
Tanz
ania
3.89
%7.
01%
0.55
Japa
n-1
.01%
0.67
%-1
.51
USA
-0.1
8%1.
73%
-0.1
0
Mal
aysi
a4.
42%
5.08
%0.
87
Saud
i Ara
bia
5.78
%6.
17%
0.94
Sout
h A
fric
a2.
32%
3.61
%0.
64
(2)T
PE
C e
last
icity
to G
DP
in th
e co
untri
es
20
Ener
gy
Cons
umpt
ion
Gro
wth
rat
e
Real
GD
P gr
owth
rat
eEl
astic
ityCo
mm
ents
1930
-194
06.
7%4.
4%1.
54G
reat
dep
ress
ion
1940
-195
0-2
.8%
-2.4
%1.
18W
WII
1950
-196
07.
8%9.
3%0.
83
1960
-197
012
.2%
10.1
%1.
21G
DP
hig
h gr
owth
1970
-197
52.
8%2.
6%1.
08G
DP
hig
h gr
owth
1975
-198
01.
6%6.
3%0.
26A
fter
fir
st o
il cr
isis
1980
-198
50.
4%3.
5%0.
12A
fter
Sec
ond
oil c
risi
s
1985
-199
03.
7%4.
8%0.
77Ec
onom
ic B
ubbl
e
1990
-199
52.
3%1.
5%1.
48C
olla
pse
the
Bub
ble
1995
-199
80.
04%
0.6%
0.07
Res
truc
ture
age
2000
-20
10-1
.01%
0.7%
-1.5
1Se
nior
Soc
iety
(3)E
last
icity
to G
DP
of J
apan
In G
DP
high
gro
wth
age
s, E
last
icity
> 1
Af
ter
oil c
risis
, Ela
stic
ity <
1
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-15
21
(4)
Exe
rcis
e fo
r Ela
stic
ityEX
1-7
Can
y ou
mak
e en
ergy
con
sum
ptio
n el
astic
ity t
o G
DP
of N
iger
iaAnnual
gro
wth
rat
e &
Ela
stic
ity
Annual
dat
aFi
ve y
ear
aver
gae
& E
last
icity 22
EX1-
8W
hen
futu
re G
DP
grow
th r
ate
(7.0
%)
for
Nig
eria
are
gi
ven
by t
he t
able
, ho
w m
uch
is p
ower
pea
k de
man
d an
d G
DP
in
futu
re?
Assu
me
the
elas
ticity
in 2
014
from
201
5 to
202
5.
23
Sect
or a
ctiv
ity fo
reca
stin
g
Soci
al &
eco
nom
ic fo
reca
stin
g
Pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
stin
g
Peak
dem
and
fore
cast
ing
2-1
Pro
cedu
res
of p
ower
dem
and
fore
cast
ing
Stu
dy s
ocia
l eco
nom
ic s
trate
gies
The
deta
ils a
re
as fo
llow
s;
2.M
etho
dolo
gy o
f Pow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
stin
g
24
2-2
Stu
dy s
ocia
l eco
nom
ic s
trate
gies
Doc
umen
tsO
rgan
izat
ions
GD
P gr
owth
rate
sPe
riods
Vis
ion
2020
20N
iger
ian
Gov
ernm
ent
13%
pery
ear
2015
-202
0
GDPoutlook
from
2015
to2020
FMBN
P5%
6%/year
2015-2020
Nig
eria
econ
omic
outlo
ok20
15A
fDB
7%
per
year
excl
udin
goi
lse
ctor
2015
-202
0
Econ
omic
outlo
okA
pril
2015
IMF
6%
per
year
excl
udin
goi
lse
ctor
2015
-202
0
From
Inform
ationandDa
ta
TCN
Mul
ti Ye
ar T
ariff
Ord
er (E
xcel
she
et o
f Fin
anci
al m
odel
311
2201
4)
TCN
Energy
Gene
ratedandEnergy
Consum
ptionFrom
2005
2014
TCN
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
n (S
ales
and
D-lo
ss) b
y re
gion
from
200
5 to
201
4
TCN
PHCN
Annu
alrepo
rt20
11and20
12
TCN
NationalLoadDe
mandStud
y&NationalEne
rgyDe
velopm
entp
roject
NER
CMYTODistrib
utionby
Company
from
2015
to20
18
(1)D
ata
colle
ctio
n
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-16
25
(2)
Soc
ial a
nd e
cono
mic
indi
cato
rs a
re fo
reca
sted
Indi
cato
rsFo
reca
st
Popu
latio
nPo
pula
tion
grow
th r
ates
are
giv
en.
Popu
latio
n by
are
aU
rban
and
Rur
al a
rea
Num
ber
of H
ouse
hold
Popu
latio
n /
Pers
on p
er h
ouse
hold
.
Nom
inal
GD
P Re
al G
DP
* G
DP
defla
tor
Real
GD
PG
DP
grow
th r
ates
are
giv
en.
GD
P by
sec
tor
Agric
ultu
re, I
ndus
try,
Com
mer
cial
ser
vice
, Pub
lic s
ervi
ce
Tran
spor
tatio
n se
ctor
s
Def
lato
rIn
flatio
n ra
tes
are
give
n
Exch
ange
rat
e (t
o U
S$)
Estim
ated
by
the
equa
tion
of ‘D
efla
tor
-U
SA in
flatio
n ra
te’
Crud
e oi
l pric
eRe
fer
to w
ell k
now
n pe
rson
s’ o
pini
on
Inco
me
per
capi
taG
DP
/ po
pula
tion
GD
P pe
r ca
pita
Nom
inal
GD
P (U
SD)
/ po
pula
tion
Blu
ear
e E
xoge
nous
var
iabl
es
26
(3)
Org
aniz
atio
ns fo
r Int
erna
tiona
l dat
a co
llect
ion
Org
aniz
atio
nU
nifo
rm R
esou
rce
Loc
ator
(UR
L)
Wor
ld b
ank
coun
try
Dat
abas
e
http
://da
ta.w
orld
bank
.org
/cou
ntry
Econ
omy,
Ene
rgy
and
Elec
tric
ity S
uppl
y an
d de
man
d da
ta
IMF
econ
omic
da
taht
tp://
elib
rary
-dat
a.im
f.org
/Fin
dDat
aRep
orts
.asp
x?d=
3306
1&e=
1693
93G
DP,
Exc
hang
era
te, P
rice
inde
x, E
xpor
t/Im
port
and
Inte
rest
rate
IEA
coun
try
data
base
http
://w
ww
.iea.
org/
coun
tries
/En
ergy
sup
ply
and
dem
and
bala
nces
for m
any
year
s
UN
Ene
rgy
year
book
http
s://u
nsta
ts.u
n.or
g/un
sd/e
nerg
y/de
faul
t.htm
Stat
istic
div
isio
n
OPE
CH
ome
page
http
://w
ww
.ope
c.or
g/op
ec_w
eb/e
n/in
dex.
htm
Oil
pric
e ou
tlook
Ener
gyIn
form
atio
nA
genc
y U
SA
http
://w
ww
.eia
.gov
/C
ount
ry d
atab
ase
27
From
Inform
ationandDa
ta
1WB
Power
consum
ptionpe
rcapita
andGD
Ppe
rcapita
oftheselected
coun
tries
2WB
Exc
hang
e ra
te a
nd G
DP
of N
iger
ia
3BP
Crud
eoilpriceof
WTIandBren
t
4IEA
Actualpo
wer
demandby
sector
ofNigeria
(Asrecorde
ddata)
5UN
Popu
latio
nforecastof
Nigeriaby
UN,Pop
ulationDivisio
n
6AfDB
NigeriaEcon
omicou
tlook
2015
7AfDB
Glob
alValueCh
ainDe
velopm
ent
andStructuralTransformationinNigeria
(4)
Colle
cted
dat
a fr
om w
orld
wid
e da
taba
se
(1)
Pop
ulat
ion
fore
cast
s
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Cou
ntry
122,
900
139,
600
159,
700
183,
500
210,
100
239,
300
270,
900
304,
400
339,
500
376,
000
Urb
an52
,000
63
,900
78
,300
95
,600
115,
600
138,
600
164,
700
193,
500
225,
000
268,
000
Rur
al
70,8
00
75,7
00
81,4
00
87,9
00
94,5
00 1
00,7
00 1
06,2
00 1
10,9
00 1
14,5
00 1
08,0
00
Urb
an sh
are
42
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
66
71
Rur
al sh
are
58
54
51
48
45
42
39
36
34
29
Sou
rce
: UN
pop
ulat
ion
stud
y,
O
rigin
al :
Nig
eria
pop
ulat
ion
com
mis
sion
28B
angl
ades
hN
iger
ia
2-3
Soc
ial &
Eco
nom
ic d
ata
fore
cast
ing
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-17
29
GD
P ite
ms
GD
E it
ems
Agr
icul
ture
Indu
stry
(Man
ufac
turin
g)(O
il &
Gas
)S
ervi
ces
GD
P =
AG
+ IN
+ S
V(IN
= M
F +O
G )
AG
IN MF
OG
SV
Priv
ate
cons
umpt
ion
Gov
ernm
ent c
onsu
mpt
ion
Cap
ital F
orm
atio
n E
xpor
t
Impo
rtS
tock
incr
ease
GD
E=P
C+G
C+C
F+E
X-IM
+SK
PC
GC
CF
EX IM SK
(2)
GD
P an
d G
DE
GD
P ( G
ross
Dom
estic
Pro
duct
)G
DE
( G
ross
Dom
estic
Exp
endi
ture
)
GD
P =
GD
E
30
(3)N
omin
al G
DP
and
Rea
l GD
P
The
follo
win
g da
ta a
re re
al a
nd n
omin
al G
DP
of N
iger
ia
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
N-G
DP
8,70
0 11
,700
14
,700
18
,700
20
,900
24
,700
25
,200
55
,500
R-G
DP
10,6
00
14,2
00
14,7
00
15,9
00
17,0
00
18,1
00
19,3
00
20,7
00
Def
latio
n82
82
10
011
7 12
3 13
6 13
1 26
8
Nom
inal
dat
a 20
05
2
006
2
007
2
008
2
009
2
010
V 0
5*P 0
5,
V 06*
P 06,
V07
*P07
, V
08*P
08V 0
9*P 0
9, V
10*P
10R
eal d
ata
2005
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0V 0
5*P 0
5,
V 06*
P 05,
V07
*P05
, V
08*P
05V 0
9*P 0
5, V
10*P
05
Billi
on N
GN
31
2-4
Sec
tor a
ctiv
ity fo
reca
stin
g
Sec
tor g
row
th ra
te =
Ela
stic
ity *
GD
P gr
owth
rate
(1)E
last
icity
app
roac
h
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Real
GDP
Real
at 20
05pr
iceBil
lion N
GN20
,682
26,17
833
,396
44,69
261
,232
83,89
311
4,941
Gr
owth
rate
G%7.0
3.06.0
6.06.5
6.56.5
Real
GDP
Agric
ultur
eBil
lion N
GN8,4
4610
,209
11,61
313
,995
17,07
620
,720
25,01
5In
dustr
yBil
lion N
GN5,1
195,2
366,5
919,1
6113
,039
18,45
525
,990
Servi
ces
Billio
n NGN
7,117
10,73
315
,192
21,53
531
,118
44,71
863
,936
GDP
Billio
n NGN
20,68
226
,178
33,39
644
,692
61,23
283
,893
114,9
41Gr
owth
rate
Agric
ultur
e%
4.79
0.43.6
3.63.9
3.93.9
Indu
stry
%9.0
3(1
.9)6.6
6.67.2
7.27.2
Servi
ces
%8.2
68.2
7.26.9
7.57.5
7.5GD
P%
7.00
3.06.0
6.06.5
6.56.5
Agric
ultur
eEla
sticit
y to G
DPa.n
.0.8
50.4
80.
600.
600.
600.
600.
60In
dustr
yEla
sticit
y to G
DPa.n
.0.7
02.0
01.
101.
101.
101.
101.
10Se
rvice
sEla
sticit
y to G
DPa.n
.1.4
22.3
81.
201.
151.
151.
151.
15GD
P (FC
)Ela
sticit
y to G
DPa.n
.1.0
01.0
01.
001.
001.
001.
001.
00
32
(2)
Regr
essi
on a
naly
sis
for
sect
oral
GD
P
Econ
omic
equ
atio
ns b
y ec
onom
ic t
heor
y
Agric
ultu
re. F
ores
try.
& F
ishe
ry =
f(G
DP,
GD
P/Po
p)
Man
ufac
turin
g &
Con
stru
ctio
n =
f(I
nves
tmen
t, E
xpor
t)
Tran
spor
tatio
n =
f(
GD
P, u
rban
pop
ulat
ion)
Com
mer
cial
. Ban
king
, Ser
vice
= f
(GD
P)
Publ
ic s
ervi
ce =
f(
GD
P)
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-18
33
(3)
Fore
ign
exch
ange
rate
NG
Npe
rU
Sdo
llar
isca
lcul
ated
from
2016
to20
40.
NG
Nis
mov
edin
prop
ortio
nw
ithth
edi
ffere
nce
betw
een
US
infla
tion
and
Nig
eria
infla
tion.
Nt
=N
t-1
1+(N
iger
iain
flat
ion
rate
US
infl
atio
nra
te
Fore
ign
exch
ange
def
initi
on fa
ctor
s
a.In
flatio
n ra
te b
etw
een
Nig
eria
and
US
Ab.
Trad
e ba
lanc
e (E
xpor
t –Im
port)
of N
iger
iac.
Inte
rest
rate
bet
wee
n N
iger
ia a
nd U
SA
d.E
cono
mic
bas
ic fa
ctor
s ( A
ge o
f Lab
or fo
rce,
Infra
stru
ctur
e, M
arke
t pot
entia
l and
Pol
itica
l sta
bilit
y)
34
(4)
Pow
er ra
tio in
fina
l ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
1980
1990
2000
2009
2012
Nig
eria
0.9
1.1
1.0
1.5
2.0
USA
13.3
17.5
19.5
21.4
Japa
n19
.021
.523
.525
.6Af
rica
(Ave
rage
)14
.917
.719
.920
.8As
ia(A
vera
ge)
11.7
14.0
18.4
21.7
Pow
eren
ergy
405
677
743
1540
2,16
4Fi
nale
nerg
y45
,900
59,0
0078
,000
100,
000
116,
000
ktoe
Not
e: In
clud
e W
oods
& C
harc
oal,
1kW
h =
860
kcal
Nig
eria
pow
er a
nd fi
nal e
nerg
y
%
Pow
er ra
tio =
Pow
er (t
oe) /
fina
l con
sum
ptio
n (to
e)
Sou
rce
: IE
A da
ta
35
(5)E
nerg
y pr
ice
fore
cast
ing
Ene
rgy
Form
ula
(As
of A
pril
2016
)C
rude
oil
pric
e W
est T
exas
Inte
rmed
iate
($/ b
bl)
WTI
(t) =
WTI
(t-1
) * (1
+ U
SA
Infla
tion
rate
)In
flatio
n ra
te =
1.5
%
2.0%
Bre
nt p
rice
is n
early
equ
al to
WTI
pric
e.
Nat
ural
gas
O
n sh
ore
prod
uctio
n co
st 1
~2$/
mm
Btu
Off
shor
e pr
oduc
tion
cost
5~
7
$/m
mB
tu(s
hallo
w)
Off
shor
e pr
oduc
tion
cost
8~
10$/
mm
Btu
(dee
p)P
ipel
ine
cost
= 1
~5$/
mm
Btu
LNG
LNG
pric
e ($
/ mm
Btu
)W
TI ($
/bbl
) / 6
E
x:
WTI
= 6
0 $/
bbl
LNG
= 6
0 / 6
= 10
mm
Btu
Coa
lIm
port
coal
(58
00 –
6000
kcal
/kg
from
Aus
tralia
) =
Set
val
ue o
f WTI
($/b
bl)
Ex:
W
TI =
60
$/bb
lIm
port
coal
= 6
0 $/
ton
Not
e :
The
abov
e fo
rmul
a is
roug
h gu
idel
ine
expr
essi
ons.
LN
G p
rice
form
ula
is c
alle
d as
“J-c
urve
” or “
S-c
urve
”.
36
Organiza
tion
Publication
Latest
version
InternationalEne
rgyAg
ency
(IEA)
WorldEnergy
Outlook
WEO
)20
15version
Organiza
tionof
the
Petroleu
mExpo
rting
Coun
tries(OPEC)
WorldOilOutlook
2014
version
Energy
Inform
ationAg
ency
(EIA,U
SA)
InternationalEne
rgy
Outlook
2014
version
TheInstitu
teof
Energy
Econ
omics,Japan(IEEJ)
Asia/W
orldEnergy
Outlook
2015
version
< O
rgan
izat
ions
for C
rude
oil
pric
e fo
reca
sts
>
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-19
37
(6)
With
out
cons
trai
nde
man
d(P
oten
tiald
eman
d)
The
expr
essi
onfo
rca
lcul
atin
gth
ew
ithou
tco
nstr
ain
pow
erde
man
dis
defin
edas
follo
ws;
With
out
cons
trai
npo
wer
dem
and
=St
atis
tical
pow
erco
nsum
ptio
n+
Pow
ersh
eddi
ngan
dpe
akcu
t=
Stat
istic
alpo
wer
cons
umpt
ion
*(1
+%
)
%:
Pote
ntia
lfac
tor
:Po
wer
shed
ding
and
peak
cut
are
targ
eted
.
Rec
orde
d da
ta: S
tatis
tical
pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
Com
pute
d da
ta :
With
out c
onst
rain
38
Pow
erfr
omH
ydro
Pow
erfr
omC
oal
Pow
erfr
omO
ilPo
wer
from
Nat
ural
gas
Pow
erfr
omR
enew
able
ener
gyPo
wer
from
Nuc
lear
Coa
lPe
trol
eum
&C
rude
oil
Nat
ural
Gas
&LN
GH
ydro
pow
erN
ucle
arO
ther
Pow
erC
oal
Cok
ePe
trol
eum
Nat
ural
gas
Woo
d&
Cha
rcoa
l
Fina
l ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
in a
ll se
ctor
s
Pow
er s
uppl
y
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y
(7)F
inal
ene
rgy
and
Prim
ary
ener
gy b
alan
ce
39
EX2-
1Ca
n yo
u fil
l the
follo
win
g ta
ble.
You
are
exp
ecte
d to
en
ter
the
pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
by s
ecto
r an
d ca
lcul
ate
the
shar
es.
(8)E
xerc
ise
sect
oral
pow
er c
onsu
mpt
ion
shar
es
2005
2014
2005
2014
GW
hG
Wh
%%
Res
iden
tial
10,3
0214
,821
45.0
51.8
Indu
stry
2,11
94,
058
9.3
14.2
Com
mer
cial
4,75
46,
751
20.8
23.6
LNG
111
244
0.5
0.9
Publ
ic u
se67
393
42.
93.
3T/
D lo
ss4,
914
1,81
421
.56.
3Su
pply
tota
l22
,873
28,6
2210
0.0
100.
0
Pow
er C
onsu
mpt
ion
Shar
es
T/D
loss
T lo
ss
40
EX
2-2
Can
you
fill
the
follo
win
g ta
ble.
You
are
exp
ecte
d to
en
ter t
he a
ctua
l dat
a an
d su
itabl
e ex
pres
sion
s in
the
tabl
e.
(Ref
er to
Nig
eria
EX
2-2
in E
XC
EL
shee
t )
Unit
2004
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
GDP f
orecas
tin g (r
eal at
2005 )
Billion
NGN
14,215
25,425
27,205
29,109
31,147
33,327
35,660
38,156
40,827
43,685
Fut
ure gr
owth
rate%
6.07.0
7.07.0
7.07.0
7.07.0
7.0
Power g
enerat
ion (W
ithout
constra
in)GW
h23,
63045,
72849,
37753,
31757,
57262,
16667,
12772,
48378,
26784,
512
Future
grow
th rate
%6.8
8.08.0
8.08.0
8.08.0
8.08.0
Elastic
ity to
GDP
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
Actua
l value
Foreca
st
(9)E
xerc
ise
pow
er d
eman
d fo
reca
st
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-20
41
(1)L
inea
r fun
ctio
nE
cono
mic
act
iviti
es a
re s
how
n by
sev
eral
kin
ds o
feq
uatio
ns. T
he fo
llow
ing
are
typi
cal e
quat
ions
Y=a
*X +
b
a
: mar
gina
l rat
io
Inco
me
Elec
tric
ity c
onsu
mpt
ion
3-1
Typi
cal e
quat
ions
for e
nerg
y de
man
d fo
reca
stin
g
3.Ec
onom
ic E
quat
ions
for
Dem
and
Fore
cast
ing
42
(2)P
ower
ed fu
nctio
n
Y=b
*Xa
is th
e sa
me
equa
tion
to lo
g Y
= a*
log
X +
log
b.
In th
e ab
ove
equa
tion,
“a” i
s “Y
’s e
last
icity
to X
”.
<Pro
of>
Def
initi
on o
f Ela
stic
ity :Q
=(dY
/ Y) /
(dX
/ X)
Q* (
dX/ X
) =(d
Y/ Y
)
Q 1
/X d
X=
1/Y
dY
Q*lo
gX=
logY
+ b
logY
= Q
*logX
+ b
Ther
efor
e Q
=a :
a is
ela
stic
ity
43
Com
plem
enta
ry g
oods
Bre
ad
Bu
tter
ompe
titi
vem
inus
Com
plem
enta
rypl
us
Com
plem
enta
rypl
us
Mar
gari
ne
<Sig
n of
Ela
stic
ity>
Com
peti
tive
goo
ds
44
(3)R
ever
se p
ropo
rtion
type
Y=a
/ X
+ b
1/X
Z
Y=a
*Z +
b
a
: mar
gina
l rat
io
GD
P g
row
th ra
te
Une
mpl
oym
ent p
erso
n
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-21
45
(1)I
nten
sity
app
roac
h
Inte
nsity
app
roac
h is
freq
uent
ly u
sed
for e
nerg
y de
man
dfo
reca
stin
g fo
r all
kind
of s
ecto
rs.
Ene
rgy
dem
and
= in
tens
ity *
Den
omin
ator
Sect
orD
enom
inat
or s
elec
ted
Agr
icul
ture
sec
tor
GD
P of
Agr
icul
ture
sec
tor
Indu
stry
sec
tor
GD
P of
Indu
stry
sec
tor
Tran
spor
tatio
n se
ctor
Fr
eigh
t tra
nspo
rtat
ion
(ton
km)
Pass
enge
r tra
nspo
rt
(per
son
km)
GD
P of
the
coun
try
Com
mer
cial
& S
er. s
ecto
rG
DP
of C
omm
erci
al &
Ser
vice
Floo
r are
a of
Bui
ldin
gsR
esid
entia
l sec
tor
Num
ber o
f pop
ulat
ion
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Den
omin
ator
s of
Ene
rgy
inte
nsity
by
sect
or
3-2
App
roac
h fo
r ene
rgy
dem
and
fore
cast
ing
46
(2)S
tock
app
roac
h
Sto
ck a
ppro
ach
is fr
eque
ntly
use
d fo
r tra
nspo
rtatio
n se
ctor
and
resi
dent
ial s
ecto
r .
Ene
rgy
dem
and
=te
chni
calc
oeffi
cien
t*op
erat
ion
load
*Num
ber o
f equ
ipm
ent
Gas
olin
e de
man
d =
Gas
effi
cien
cy *
Trav
el d
ista
nce
*Num
ber o
f Veh
icle
s
Ker
osen
e de
man
d =
Ker
osen
e ef
ficie
ncy
per s
tove
*Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Ener
gy d
eman
d =
a* N
umbe
r of e
quip
men
t +b
47
(3)E
last
icity
app
roac
h
It is
pop
ular
app
roac
h in
ene
rgy
dem
and
mod
el. E
nerg
yde
man
d is
dep
ende
d on
Inco
me
and
ener
gy p
rice.
Ela
stic
ity o
f en
ergy
pric
e us
ually
take
s m
inus
sig
n.
Log(
Ene
rgy
dem
and)
=a*lo
g(In
com
e)+b
* lo
g(en
ergy
pric
e) +
c
Log(
E)=
a*lo
g(Y
) + b
*log(
P) +
c*lo
g(E
-1) +
d
a: s
hort
elas
ticity
to in
com
e
b: s
hort
elas
ticity
to e
nerg
y pr
ice
Log(
E)=
a/(1
-c)*
log(
Y)+
b/(1
-c)*
log(
P) +
d
a/(1
-c):
long
rang
e el
astic
ity to
inco
me
b/(1
-c):
long
rang
e el
astic
ity to
pric
e
48
Y=a
*X+b
X
Y
“a”:
Coe
ffic
ient
of
X
“a”
is o
ne o
f st
atis
tics
gene
rate
d by
var
iabl
e (X
,Y)
“a”
is o
ne o
f m
ean
with
t-d
istr
ibut
ion.
“a”
has
a s
tand
ard
devi
atio
n.
(1)R
egre
ssio
n eq
uatio
n
Con
cept
3-3
Reg
ress
ion
Ana
lysi
s
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-22
49
2R
egre
ssio
n co
effic
ient
tes
t
Y
X
Y=a
*X+b
*Z+c
aan
db
are
mea
ns o
f e
ach
t-di
strib
utio
n.
If b
=0,
we
can
rew
rite
Y=a*
X+b*
Z+c
to Y
=a*
X+c.
It m
eans
tha
t va
riabl
e Z
has
no r
elat
ion
to Y
.
But
if a=
0, w
e ca
n re
writ
e Y=
a*X+
b*Z+
cto
Y=
b*Z+
c.
It m
eans
tha
t va
riabl
e X
has
no r
elat
ion
to Y
.
Then
we
have
to
test
reg
ress
ion
coef
ficie
nt b
y th
e t-
valu
e of
coe
ffic
ient
s.
ta=
a /
SD
(a),
tb=
b /
SD
(b)
Nul
l hyp
othe
sis
=0
ABS(
ta)>
2
D
egre
e of
fre
edom
(n-x
-1)
ABS(
tb)>
2
Deg
ree
of f
reed
om(n
-x-1
)
a no
t=0,
b
not=
0
50
Y=a
*X+b
X
Y=a
*X+b
X
Det
erm
inat
ion
coef
ficie
nt
= 0
.6-0
.7
Not
fitt
ing
Det
erm
inat
ion
coef
ficie
nt
= 0
.8-0
.9
Fitt
ing
YY
3D
eter
min
atio
n co
effic
ient
(Cor
rela
tion
coef
ficie
nt)
Det
erm
inat
ion
coef
ficie
nt =
(Co
rrel
atio
n co
effic
ient
) 2
51
4D
urbi
n W
atso
n ra
tio
YY
=a*X
+b*Z
+cY
Y=a
*X+b
*Z+c
DW
rat
iosh
ould
be
in t
he r
ange
of
0<D
W <
4 (
1<D
W<
3 be
tter
).
The
func
tion
with
DW
=2
is t
he b
est
fittin
g to
the
act
ual d
ata.
DW
<1
DW
> 3
XX
DW
=e
et-1
2 /et
2=
e22e
et-1
+e2 t-1
/et
2
52
R: R
-Squ
are
(0<
R<
1). B
ette
r cl
ose
to 1
AR:
Adju
sted
R.(0
<R
<1
)Be
tter
clos
eto
1if
the
sam
ples
are
smal
l.
DW
:D
urbi
nW
atso
nSt
at.(
0<D
W<
4).G
ood
cond
ition
1<D
W3
DF:
Deg
.of
Free
dom
(>1)
.
t-va
lue
ABS(
t-va
lue)
>2
5S
tatis
tical
Tes
t
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-23
53
6Si
gnte
st
Ker
osen
e de
man
d =
a*lo
g(W
age)
+b*
log(
Ker
osen
e pr
ice/
CP
I)
+c*
log(
Ker
osen
e de
man
d -1
) + d
a >
0, b
< 0
, c
>0
Sig
n te
st is
not
sta
tistic
al te
st. I
t has
to b
e te
sted
by
the
rela
tion
betw
een
depe
nden
t var
iabl
e an
d in
depe
nden
t va
riabl
e.
Con
sum
ptio
n =
a* in
com
e +b
a
>0
Gas
olin
e co
nsum
ptio
n =
a* n
umbe
r of c
ar +
b
a>0
Gas
olin
e co
nsum
ptio
n =
a* G
as p
rice
/ WP
I + b
a<0
54
4-1
Inst
alla
tion
(1)I
nsta
llatio
nof
Sim
ple
E
Ste
p1C
opy
Sim
ple_
E.x
lain
Ext
erna
ldev
ice
toyo
urfa
vorit
eha
rddi
skdi
rect
ory.
Des
ktop
C:¥
Pro
gram
File
s¥M
icro
soft
Offi
ce¥O
ffice
¥Lib
rary
Ste
p2O
pen
MS
-EX
CE
L
Ste
p3“Q
uick
Acc
ess”
“Oth
erco
mm
and”
.A
ddin
Ste
p4“S
ettin
g”“B
row
se”t
ose
lect
Sim
ple_
E.
Ste
p5C
heck
the
box
ofS
impl
e_E
.in
“Add
-In”m
enu
4.H
ow to
use
Sim
ple
E
55
Sim
ple
.E T
oo
l B
ar
(2)S
impl
e.E
tool
bar
The
prog
ram
Sim
ple
E.w
illbe
load
edan
dth
efiv
ebu
ttons
ofS
impl
eE
.too
lbar
will
bedi
spla
yed
onth
eup
per-
left
corn
eras
follo
ws;
Add
in
56
(1)T
ocr
eate
new
wor
kshe
ets
into
ane
ww
orkb
ook,
clic
kA
ddto
New
Wor
kboo
k”.
(2)
To c
reat
e ne
w w
orks
heet
s in
the
sam
e ac
tive
wor
kboo
k,cl
ick
“A
dd to
Act
ive
Wor
kboo
k.”
4-2.
Cre
ate
Sim
ple
E. w
orks
heet
s
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-24
57
(3)R
elat
ion
amon
g D
ata
shee
t, M
odel
she
et a
nd S
imsh
eet
Dat
a sh
eet
Mod
el sh
eet
Sim
ulat
ion
shee
t
58
(1)F
RE
E A
RE
ATh
e co
lum
ns A
~J a
re fr
ee a
rea.
Thi
s ar
ea w
ill be
use
ful t
o se
tda
ta c
ateg
orie
s, d
ata
sour
ce, v
aria
ble
nam
e, u
nit,
and
othe
r co
mm
ents
.(2
)Tre
nd C
onst
ant
“TR
EN
D” i
s th
e de
faul
t cod
e na
me
for t
he s
eria
l num
ber f
rom
1to
245
. The
cod
e na
me
“TR
EN
D” c
an b
e us
ed a
s a
varia
ble
of
serie
s “1
, 2, 3
, … ,
245”
. (3
)CO
DE
Are
aTh
e co
lum
n “K
” is
for c
ode
nam
e of
the
varia
ble.
Cod
e na
me
shou
ld b
e un
ique
for e
ach
varia
ble,
and
the
char
acte
rs a
re li
mite
d to
from
“A” t
o “Z
”, fro
m “0
” to
“9”,
“.”,
“_”.
4-3.
Dat
a sh
eet
59
(4)T
IME
LA
BE
L
If th
e ac
tual
dat
a is
pre
pare
d fro
m 2
005
to 2
015
and
if th
eTI
ME
is s
et fr
om 2
005
to 2
025.
Sim
ple.
Eau
tom
atic
ally
take
s th
e ra
nge
betw
een
2016
and
202
5 fo
r for
ecas
t.
(5)D
ATA
The
area
is fo
r the
dat
a of
eac
h va
riabl
e, th
e da
ta s
houl
d be
prep
ared
for a
ll tim
e in
terv
al.
If a
varia
ble
is a
vaila
ble
from
200
5 to
201
5, a
ll ce
lls m
ust b
e fil
led
with
act
ual v
alue
s. M
issi
ng d
ata
or n
on-n
umer
ic v
alue
s ar
e no
t allo
wed
.
60
Dat
a
F1 A
gric
ultu
re
F2 I
ndus
try
F3 S
ervi
ces
Mod
el
=D
ata!
F1
=D
ata!
F2
=D
ata!
F3
Sim
ulat
ion
=D
ata!
F1
=D
ata!
F2
=D
ata!
F3
(6)C
opy
Com
men
ts fr
om D
ata
shee
t to
Oth
er s
heet
s
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-25
61
Dat
a sh
eet
Ex3
-1C
an y
ou tr
y to
set
the
follo
win
g da
ta in
Dat
a sh
eet ?
Set
the
year
s fro
m 2
005
to 2
010
in th
e TI
ME
line
of t
he
Dat
a sh
eet.
Set
the
com
men
ts in
the
Com
men
t Col
umns
Set
the
varia
ble
nam
es
Set
the
time
serie
s da
ta
Cal
cula
te G
DP
(7)E
xerc
ise
for D
ata
shee
t
62
Ex3
-2C
an y
ou s
et th
e fo
reca
stin
g ye
ars
and
the
exog
enou
s va
lues
for A
gric
ultu
re s
ecto
r
Set
the
fore
cast
ing
year
s fro
m 2
011
to 2
015
in th
e TI
ME
lin
e of
the
Dat
a sh
eet.
Set
the
exog
enou
s va
lues
for A
gric
ultu
re s
ecto
r
63
(1)
Form
ats
ofM
odel
shee
t
The
first
ten
colu
mns
A:J
are
free
area
.
The
mod
eleq
uatio
nsar
esp
ecifi
edin
the
colK
toco
lAB.
The
colu
mn
Kis
the
code
for
the
inte
rnal
varia
ble.
The
colu
mn
Lis
for
optio
nsof
mod
el.
The
colu
mns
Mto
colA
Bar
efo
rin
depe
nden
tva
riabl
es.
4-4
Mod
el s
heet
64
(2)O
ptio
n Ty
pe (U
sefu
l)
“$LS
” or
Bla
nk c
ell-
-Si
mpl
e E.
exe
cute
s re
gres
sion
bas
ed o
n O
rdin
ary
Leas
t Sq
uare
(R e
gres
sion
Ana
lysi
s).
XX
$LS
YY
X1
Type
Y
YY
= a
* X
X +
b
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-26
65
“=“
or “
$EQ
”--
Dire
ct E
quat
ion:
The
var
iabl
e in
“Y”
is
defin
ed d
irect
ly b
y th
e fo
rmul
a in
“X.
” “ XX
=Y
YX
1Ty
peY
YY
=
XX
66
“$D
L”–
Dou
ble
Log:
Sim
ple
E. e
xecu
tes
regr
essi
on a
fter
tr
ansf
orm
ing
the
varia
bles
of
both
sid
es t
o lo
g fo
rmat
.
XX
$DL
YY
X1
Type
Y Log(
YY
) = a
* lo
g(X
X) +
b
67
“$SL
”–
Sem
i Log
: Si
mpl
e E.
exe
cute
s re
gres
sion
aft
er
tran
sfor
min
g th
e va
riabl
e of
“Y
” si
de t
o lo
g fo
rmat
.
XX
$SL
YY
X1
Type
Y
Log(
YY
) = a
* X
X +
b
68
$CA
—C
onst
ant A
djus
tmen
t: S
impl
e E
adj
ust b
etw
een
regr
essi
on e
quat
ion
and
the
late
st a
ctua
l val
ue.
Y
X
Y=a
*X+b
Y=a
*X+b
+c
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-27
69
$TL—
Line
ar T
rend
, est
imat
ed b
y se
rial n
umbe
r
$TG
—G
row
th T
rend
, est
imat
ed b
y av
erag
e ac
tual
gro
wth
ra
teY
X
Y=a
*X+b
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
1
12
10.0
%10
.0%
$TG
$TL
70
Int
erna
l O
ptio
nI
J
Mar
ket e
xcha
nge
rate
NG
N/U
S$EX
CH
NG
=La
g1.E
XC
HN
G*(
1+EX
CG
R/1
00)
Gro
wth
rate
G
%EX
CG
R=
EXC
GR
Cou
ntry
num
ber
1000
per
sons
POPN
UM
=La
g1.P
OPN
UM
*(1+
POPN
GR
/100
)
(3)A
rithm
etic
ope
rato
rs in
Mod
el s
heet
Arit
hmet
ic O
pera
tors
Ope
rato
rs in
Mod
el s
heet
+
+-
-=
X1
varia
ble
is m
oved
to Y
var
iabl
e* /
Xn
X^n
Xt-
1L
ag
1.X
Set
Dum
my
var
in 2
007
DU
M.2
007
71
(4)D
umm
y va
riabl
e
Whe
n th
e sp
ecia
l poi
nts
can
not b
e ex
plai
ned
by a
nyva
riabl
es, w
e ca
n se
t dum
my
varia
bles
in re
gres
sion
equ
atio
ns
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dum
.200
70
01
00
0D
um.2
007.
.0
01
11
1D
um.2
007.
2009
00
10
10
Dum
.200
7..2
009
00
11
10
Dum
.200
7.20
09..
00
10
11
72
Ex3
-3C
an y
ou d
escr
ibe
the
expr
essi
ons
in th
e M
odel
she
et ?
Mod
el sh
eet
Set
Spe
cial
pas
te a
nd L
ink
past
e in
H c
ol to
L c
ol o
f M
odel
she
et fo
r cop
ying
the
Com
men
t, Va
riabl
e na
mes
an
d Ty
pes
from
Dat
a sh
eet.
Set
the
expr
essi
ons
for t
he v
aria
bles
.
(5)E
xerc
ise
for M
odel
she
et
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-28
73
(1)
Free
col
umns
The
first
col
umns
“A:
J” a
re t
he fr
ee a
rea.
(2)
Code
nam
es
The
colu
mn
K sh
ows
the
sam
e co
de n
ame
as t
hat
in m
odel
shee
t ex
cept
for
the
varia
ble
in fu
nctio
nal f
orm
with
oper
ator
s.
(3)
Actu
al v
alue
s
Actu
al v
alue
in S
imul
atio
n sh
eet
are
copi
ed f
rom
Dat
ash
eet.
4-5
Sim
ulat
ion
shee
t
74
(4)S
imul
ated
For
ecas
ts
The
sim
ulat
ion
fore
cast
s or
the
cells
with
form
ulas
are
show
n w
ith th
e re
d co
lor f
ont.
The
cells
of f
orec
asts
con
tain
est
imat
ed o
r def
ined
eq
uatio
ns.
If th
e fo
reca
sts
are
linea
r tre
nds
calc
ulat
ed b
y S
impl
eE.,
the
font
col
or is
set
to p
ink.
Thes
e ce
lls o
f the
pin
k co
lor c
ells
doe
sn’t
cont
ain
equa
tions
.
75
Ex3
-4C
an y
ou d
escr
ibe
only
the
com
men
ts in
the
Sim
ulat
ion
shee
t ?
Sim
ulat
ion
shee
t
Set
Spe
cial
pas
te a
nd L
ink
past
e in
H c
ol to
K c
ol o
f S
imul
atio
n sh
eet f
or c
opyi
ng th
e C
omm
ents
and
Va
riabl
e na
mes
from
Dat
a sh
eet.
The
data
are
a fro
m K
col
are
fille
d by
the
calc
ulat
ion
valu
es a
fter S
impl
eE ru
n.
(5)E
xerc
ise
for s
imul
atio
n sh
eet
76
Sim
ple
E.M
ain-
Men
u
Sync
hron
ize:
Sync
hron
ize
the
varia
ble
ofth
ero
wfo
ral
lwin
dow
s
Gra
ph:
Crea
tegr
aph(
s)of
the
varia
ble(
s)on
the
sele
cted
row
(s)
Re-
Cal
cula
te R
ow(s
): R
eset
and
Re-
calc
ulat
e th
e eq
uatio
n(s)
of t
he v
aria
ble(
s) o
f the
sel
ecte
d ro
w(s
)
4-6
Impo
rtant
Sim
ple
EM
enu
(1)M
ain
Men
u
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-29
77
< M
ain
Men
u >
78
(2)S
ynch
roni
ze
Dat
a sh
eet
Mod
el s
heet
79
(3)
Gra
ph
80
(4)R
e-C
alcu
late
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-30
81
The
purp
ose
of th
e m
odel
is to
fore
cast
the
pow
er d
eman
d b
y 20
40 u
nder
th
e P
opul
atio
n, G
DP,
Oil
pric
e, T
ariff
gro
wth
rate
s an
d so
on.
Exog
enou
s va
riabl
e
(1)
Popu
latio
n
(2)
GD
P
Agric
ultu
re
Indu
stry
Serv
ices
(3)
Crud
e oi
l(4
)Po
wer
tar
iff
(5)
EE&
C
P ow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
st
(1)
Agric
ultu
re(2
)In
dust
ry(3
)Co
mm
erci
al &
Ser
vice
Sec
tor
(4)
Publ
ic(5
)R e
side
ntia
l Sec
tor
(6)
P ow
er d
eman
dPe
ak d
eman
d(1
)O
wn
use
(2)
Net
pea
k de
man
d(3
)G
r oss
pea
k de
man
d (G
ener
atio
n)
< E
xoge
nous
and
Pow
er D
eman
d F
orec
ast b
lock
s>
5-1
Mod
el im
age
5.M
odel
bui
ldin
g of
Pow
er D
eman
d Fo
reca
sts
82
< Fo
reca
stin
g eq
uatio
ns in
the
mod
el >
Res
iden
tial
_pow
er_d
eman
d=
Res
iden
tial_
pow
er_d
eman
d(t-
1)
*(1+
GD
P_El
astic
ity*(
GD
P_G
R –
Popu
latio
n_G
R)
*(
1 -
Tarif
f_El
astic
ity*
Tarif
f_G
R)
*(EE
&C_
fact
or/
EE&
C_fa
ctor
(t-1
)*(
1+(E
lect
rific
atio
n_ra
te-
Elec
trifi
catio
n_ra
te(t
-1)
)
Indu
stry
_pow
er_d
eman
d=
Ind
ustr
y_po
wer
_dem
and(
t-1)
*(
1+G
DP_
Elas
ticity
*(G
DP_
GR)
*(
1 -
Tarif
f_El
astic
ity*
Tarif
f_G
R)
*(EE
&C_
fact
or/
EE&
C_fa
ctor
(t-1
) )
83
< Tr
aini
ng it
ems
by s
heet
>
She
ets
Con
tent
s D
ata
shee
tTh
efo
rmat
ion
and
data
alre
ady
are
set i
n th
e sh
eet.
The
actu
al d
ata
are
from
200
0 to
201
4.
You
shou
ld u
nder
stan
d th
e st
ruct
ure.
Mod
el s
heet
The
form
atio
n an
d va
riabl
e na
mes
are
copi
ed fr
om
the
data
she
et.
You
are
expe
cted
to in
put t
he e
xpre
ssio
ns.
Sim
ulat
ion
shee
t Th
e fo
rmat
ions
are
cop
ied
from
dat
a sh
eet.
You
shou
ld re
arra
nge
the
deci
mal
poi
nts.
Gro
wth
rate
The
form
atio
ns a
re c
opie
d fro
m d
ata
shee
t.Yo
u sh
ould
inpu
t the
exp
ress
ions
for c
alcu
latin
g th
e gr
owth
rate
.
84
5-2
Dat
a in
put i
nto
Dat
a sh
eet
(1)
Act
ual d
ata
from
200
0 to
201
4
(2)
Blu
e co
lor v
alue
s ar
e ex
ogen
ous
varia
bles
up
to 2
040.
(3) P
reco
nditi
on s
heet
s (O
rigin
al s
ourc
e sh
eet,
Pop
ulat
ion
shee
t) a
re d
elet
ed.
(4)
Y ou
shal
l und
erst
and
the
mod
el fl
ow in
Dat
a sh
eet
EX
4-1
Exp
ect y
ou to
und
erst
and
the
mod
el s
truct
ure
in D
ata
shee
t .
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-31
85
EX
4-2
Exp
ect y
ou to
inpu
t exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et .
5-3
Mod
ellin
g in
to M
odel
she
et
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (1
)
31
41.1
Excha
nge ra
teMa
rket ex
change
rate
NGN/U
S$EX
CHNG
=La
g1.EX
CHNG
*(1+E
XCGR
/100)
5 G
rowth
rate
G%EX
CGR
=EX
CGR
6 71.2
Popul
ation
Count
ry num
ber
1000 p
ersons
POPN
UM=
Lag1.
POPN
UM*(1
+POP
NGR/1
00)8
Grow
th rat
e G%
POPN
GR=
POPN
GR9 10
1.3No
minal G
DP
MPBil
lion NG
NNG
DP=
Lag1.
NGDP
*(1+(G
DPGR
+DGP
GR)/1
00)11
Grow
th rat
eG%
NGPG
R=
(NGD
P/Lag1
.NGDP
-1)*10
012
Real G
DP (F
C)Re
al at 2
005pri
ceBil
lion NG
NRG
DP=
Lag1.
RGDP
*(1+G
DPGR
/100)
13 G
rowth
rate
G%GD
PGR
=GD
PGR
14De
flator
2005
100200
5=100
DGDP
=La
g1.DG
DP*(1
+(DGP
GR)/1
00)15
Grow
th rat
eG%
DGPG
R=
DGPG
R
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (2
)
86
161.4
Gros
s Dom
estic
Pro
duct
(real
at 20
05-0
6 pric
e)17
<Rea
l GDP
>Ag
ricult
ure
Billio
n NGN
RGDA
GR=
WGD
AGR/
WGG
DP*R
GDP
18In
dustr
yBi
llion N
GNRG
DIND
=W
GDIN
D/W
GGDP
*RGD
P19
(Man
ufac
turing
)Bi
llion N
GNRG
DMAN
=W
GDM
AN/W
GGDP
*RGD
P20
(Oil &
Gas
)Bi
llion N
GNRG
DOIL
=W
GDOI
L/W
GGDP
*RGD
P21
Serv
ices
Billio
n NGN
RGDC
OM=
WGD
COM
/WGG
DP*R
GDP
22GD
P (F
C)Bi
llion N
GNRG
GDP
=RG
DAGR
+RGD
IND+
RGDC
OM23
<Gro
wth
rate
of R
eal G
DP>
24Ag
ricult
ure
%GR
AGR
=ES
AGR*
GDPG
R25
Indu
stry
%GR
IND
=ES
IND*
GDPG
R26
(Man
ufac
turing
)%
GRM
AN=
ESM
AN*G
DPGR
27(O
il & G
as)
%GR
OIL
=ES
OIL*
GDPG
R28
Serv
ices
%GR
COM
=ES
COM
*GDP
GR29
GDP
(FC)
%GR
GDP
=GD
PGR
30<W
-Gro
wth
rate
of R
eal G
DP>
31Ag
ricult
ure
Billio
n NGN
WGD
AGR
=La
g1.W
GDAG
R*(1
+GRA
GR/10
0)32
Indu
stry
Billio
n NGN
WGD
IND
=La
g1.W
GDIN
D*(1
+GRI
ND/10
0)33
(Man
ufac
turing
)Bi
llion N
GNW
GDM
AN=
Lag1
.WGD
MAN
*(1+
GRM
AN/10
0)34
(Oil &
Gas
)Bi
llion N
GNW
GDOI
L=
Lag1
.WGD
OIL*
(1+G
ROIL
/100)
35Se
rvice
sBi
llion N
GNW
GDCO
M=
Lag1
.WGD
COM
*(1+
GRCO
M/10
0)36
GDP
(FC)
Billio
n NGN
WGG
DP=
WGD
AGR+
WGD
IND+
WGD
COM
87
37<E
lastic
ity to
rGDP
> 38
Elasti
city t
o GDP
a.n.
ESAG
R=
ESAG
R39
Elasti
city t
o GDP
a.n.
ESIN
D=
ESIN
D40
Elasti
city t
o GDP
a.n.
ESM
AN=
ESM
AN41
Elasti
city t
o GDP
a.n.
ESOI
L=
ESOI
L42
Elasti
city t
o GDP
a.n.
ESCO
M=
ESCO
M43
Elasti
city t
o GDP
a.n.
ESGD
P=
ESGD
P44
<rGD
P pe
r cap
ita>
45Ag
ricult
ureNG
N/pe
rson
PCAG
R=
RGDA
GR*1
0000
00/P
OPNU
M46
Indus
tryNG
N/pe
rson
PCIN
D=
RGDI
ND*1
0000
00/P
OPNU
M47
(Man
ufactu
ring)
NGN/
perso
nPC
MAN
=RG
DMAN
*100
0000
/POP
NUM
48(O
il & G
as)NG
N/pe
rson
PCOI
L=
RGDO
IL*1
0000
00/P
OPNU
M49
Servi
ces
NGN/
perso
nPC
COM
=RG
DCOM
*100
0000
/POP
NUM
50GD
P (F
C)NG
N/pe
rson
PCGD
P=
RGGD
P*10
0000
0/POP
NUM
51
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (3
)
88
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (4
)52
1.5Ta
riff o
f Cou
ntry (
Nomi
nal)
Coun
try av
erage
NGN/
kWh
TCAV
E=
(TCR
ES+T
CCOM
+TCI
ND)*0
.7/3
53(S
ource
: NEC
R &
TCN)
Dome
stic(R
2)NG
N/kW
hTC
RES
=La
g1.T
CRES
*(1+(
GTAR
ES+0
.2*GD
PGR)
/100)
54Ab
uja ta
riff
Comm
ercial
(C2)
NGN/
kWh
TCCO
M=
Lag1
.TCC
OM*(1
+(GT
ACOM
+0.2*
GDPG
R)/10
0)55
Indus
try(D
2)NG
N/kW
hTC
IND
=La
g1.T
CIND
*(1+(
GTAI
ND+0
.2*GD
PGR)
/100)
56Sp
ecial
(A2)
NGN/
kWh
TCLN
G=
Lag1
.TCL
NG*(1
+(GT
ALNG
+0.2*
GDPG
R)/10
0)57
Stree
l ligh
t(S1)
NGN/
kWh
TCSL
T=
Lag1
.TCS
LT*(1
+(GT
ASLT
+0.2*
GDPG
R)/10
0)58
Tarif
f of C
ountr
y (at
2015
p)Co
untry
avera
geNG
N/kW
hTA
AVE
=(T
ARES
+TAC
OM+T
AIND
)*0.7/
359
Dome
stic
NGN/
kWh
TARE
S=
Lag1
.TAR
ES*(1
+GTA
RES/1
00)
60Co
mmerc
ialNG
N/kW
hTA
COM
=La
g1.T
ACOM
*(1+G
TACO
M/10
0)61
Indus
tryNG
N/kW
hTA
IND
=La
g1.T
AIND
*(1+G
TAIN
D/10
0)62
LNG
NGN/
kWh
TALN
G=
Lag1
.TAL
NG*(1
+GTA
LNG/
100)
63Str
eel li
ght
NGN/
kWh
TASL
T=
Lag1
.TAS
LT*(1
+GTA
SLT/
100)
64Gr
owth
rate o
f Cou
ntry t
ariffC
ountr
y ave
rage
%GT
AAVE
=GT
AAVE
65Do
mesti
c%
GTAR
ES=
GTAR
ES66
Comm
ercial
%GT
ACOM
=GT
ACOM
67Ind
usrry
%GT
AIND
=GT
AIND
68LN
G%
GTAL
NG=
GTAL
NG69
Stree
l ligh
t%
GTAS
LT=
GTAS
LT70
Crud
e oil p
rice
WTI
forec
astd (
Nomi
nal p
US$/b
blCR
DPRC
=CR
DPRC
71 E
xcala
tion f
actor
G%CR
DESC
=CR
DESC
72W
TI ad
justed
by U
S infl
aUS$
/bbl
CRDD
OB=
CRDD
OB73
Grow
th rat
e %
CRDD
GR=
CRDD
GR74
USA
inflat
ion
2015
=100
USAI
FL=
USAI
FL75
Grow
th rat
e G%
USAI
GR=
USAI
GR76
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-32
89
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (5
)
772
Elec
tric E
ner g
y Dem
and -
comp
uted
dema
nd (g
rid +
auto
gene
ratio
nYEA
R6=
YEAR
678
2.1(1)
Resi
denti
al us
eRe
sden
tial (R
ecord
ed)
GWh
RESS
UP=
REST
OT*R
ECCH
P/10
079
Resid
entia
l (she
dding
)GW
hRE
SSHD
=RE
STOT
-RES
SUP
80Re
siden
tail (C
ompu
ted)
GWh
REST
OT=
(Lag
1.RES
TOT*
(1+RE
SELG
*(GDP
GR-P
OPNG
R)/10
0 )81
Regre
ssion
(Sho
rt)GW
hRE
SSHT
$DL
RGDP
/POP
NUTA
RES
RESE
LR82
Regre
ssion
(Lon
g)GW
hRE
SLON
$DL
RGDP
/POP
N UTA
RES
RESE
LRDU
M.20
0683
Elasti
city t
o GDP
per c
apia.
n.RE
SELG
=RE
SELG
84Els
aticit
y to D
omest
ic tar
i fa.n.
RESE
LT=
RESE
LT85
Electr
ificati
on ra
te (W
orld%
RESE
LR=
RESE
LR86
EE&C
facto
r20
12=1
00RE
SEFC
=La
g1.R
ESEF
C*(1-
RESE
RT/10
0)87
EE&C
rate
%RE
SERT
=RE
SERT
88 892.2
(2) In
dustr
y Sec
torInd
ustry
(Rec
orded
)GW
hIN
DSUP
=IN
DTOT
*REC
CHP/
100
90Ind
ustry
(she
dding
)GW
hIN
DSHD
=IN
DTOT
-INDS
UP91
Indus
try (C
ompu
ted)
GWh
INDT
OT=
Lag1
.INDT
OT*(1
+IND
ELG*
GRM
AN/10
0)*((1
+IND
E L92
Regre
ssion
(Sho
rt)GW
hIN
DSHT
$DL
RGDM
ANTA
IND
Dum.
2010
Dum.
2011
93Re
gressi
on (L
ong)
GWh
INDL
ON$D
LRG
DMAN
TAIN
DDu
m.20
10Du
m.20
1194
Elasti
city t
o ind
ustry
GD P
a.n.
INDE
LG=
INDE
LG95
Elsati
city t
o Ind
ustry
tarif
fa.n.
INDE
LT=
INDE
LT96
EE&C
facto
r20
12=1
00IN
DEFC
=La
g1.IN
DEFC
*(1-IN
DERT
/100)
97EE
&C ra
te%
INDE
RT=
INDE
RT98
90
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (6
)99
2.3(3)
Comm
ercial
Sector
Comm
erce (R
ecorde
d)GW
hCO
MSUP
=CO
MTOT
*REC
CHP/1
00100
Comm
erce(s
heddin
g)GW
hCO
MSHD
=CO
MTOT
-COMS
UP101
Comm
erce (C
omput
ed)GW
hCO
MTOT
=Lag
1.COM
TOT*
(1+CO
MELG
*GRC
OM/10
0)*((1
+COM
ELT*
GTAC
O102
Regre
ssion (
Short)
GWh
COMS
HT$D
LRG
DCOM
TACO
MDu
m.2010
103Re
gressio
n (Lo
ng)GW
hCO
MLON
$DL
RGDM
ANTA
COM
104Ela
sticity
to com
mercia
l Ga.n
.CO
MELG
=CO
MELG
105Els
aticity
to Com
mercia
l t aa.n.
COME
LT=
COME
LT106
EE&C
factor
2012=1
00CO
MEFC
=Lag
1.COM
EFC*
(1-CO
MERT
/100)
107EE
&C rat
e%
COME
RT=
COME
RT108 109
2.4(4)
LNG
LNG (
Recor
ded)
GWh
LNGS
UP=
LNGT
OT*R
ECCH
P/100
110LN
G(shed
ding)
GWh
LNGS
HD=
LNGT
OT-LN
GSUP
111LN
G (Co
mpute
d)GW
hLN
GTOT
=Lag
1.LNG
TOT*
(1+LN
GELG
*GRO
IL/100
)*((1+
LNGE
LT*G
TALN
G /112
Regre
ssion (
Short)
GWh
LNGS
HT$D
LRG
DOIL
TALN
GDu
m.2013
Dum.2
014113
Regre
ssion (
Long)
GWh
LNGL
ON$D
LRG
DOIL
TALN
GDu
m.2010
Dum.2
012..20
14114
Elastic
ity to O
il & Ga
s GDa.
n.LN
GELG
=LN
GELG
115Els
aticity
to OIL
& Gas
t aa.n.
LNGE
LT=
LNGE
LT116
EE&C
factor
2012=1
00LN
GEFC
=Lag
1.LNG
EFC*
(1-LN
GERT
/100)
117EE
&C rat
e%
LNGE
RT=
LNGE
RT118
91
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (7
)
119
2.5(5)
Publi
c use
St-ligh
t & Po
wer u
se(Re
coGW
hPU
BSUP
=PU
BTOT
*REC
CHP/1
0012
0St
light &
Powe
r use(
She dG
Wh
PUBS
HD=
PUBT
OT-P
UBSU
P12
1St
light &
powe
r use(
ComG
Wh
PUBT
OT=
Lag1
.PUBT
OT*(1
+PUB
ELG*
GDPG
R/10
0)12
2Re
gressi
on (S
hort)
GWh
PUBS
HT=
PUBS
HT12
3Re
gressi
on (L
ong)
GWh
PUBL
ON=
PUBL
ON12
4Ela
sticity
to co
untry
GDP
a.n.
PUBE
LG=
PUBE
LG12
5Els
aticit
y to A
verag
e tari
f fa.n.
PUBE
LT=
PUBE
LT12
6EE
&C fa
ctor
2012
=100
PUBE
FC=
Lag1
.PUBE
FC*(1
-PUB
ERT/
100)
127
EE&C
rate
%PU
BERT
=PU
BERT
128
129
2.6 (6
) T lo
ssT-
loss
(Reco
rded)
GWh
TDLS
UP=
CTYS
UP*T
DLRA
T/10
013
0T-
loss
(Shed
ding)
GWh
TDLS
HD=
CTYS
HD*T
DLRA
T/10
013
1T-
loss
(Com
puted
)GW
hTD
LTOT
=TD
LSUP
+TDL
SHD
132
T- lo
ss rat
e (T-
loss 8
% )
%TD
LRAT
=TD
LRAT
133
134
2.7(7)
Elect
ric en
ergy d
emaR
eside
ntial
GWh
ENGR
ES=
RESS
UP13
5 (R
ecorde
d)Ind
ustry
GWh
ENGI
ND=
INDS
UP13
6Co
mmerc
ialGW
hEN
GCOM
=CO
MSUP
137
LNG
GWh
ENGL
NG=
LNGS
UP13
8Pu
blic u
seGW
hEN
GPUB
=PU
BSUP
139
T/D
loss
GWh
ENGT
DL=
TDLS
UP14
0Su
pply
total
GWh
CTYS
UP=
RESS
UP+IN
DSUP
+COM
SUP+
LNGS
UP+P
UBSU
P+TD
LSUP 92
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (8
)14
1 (
Shedd
ing)
Resid
ential
GWh
SHDR
ES=
RESS
HD14
2Ind
ustry
GWh
SHDI
ND=
INDS
HD14
3Co
mmerc
ialGW
hSH
DCOM
=CO
MSHD
144
LNG
GWh
SHDL
NG=
LNGS
HD14
5Pu
blic us
eGW
hSH
DPUB
=PU
BSHD
146
T/D lo
ssGW
hSH
DTDL
=TD
LSHD
147
Shedd
ing to
talGW
hCT
YSHD
=RE
SSHD
+INDS
HD+C
OMSH
D+LN
GSHD
+PUB
SHD+
TDLS
HD14
8
(Com
puted
)Re
sident
ialGW
hCO
PRES
=RE
STOT
149
Indust
ryGW
hCO
PIND
=IN
DTOT
150
Comm
ercial
GWh
COPC
OM=
COMT
OT15
1LN
GGW
hCO
PLNG
=LN
GTOT
152
Public
use
GWh
COPP
UB=
PUBT
OT15
3T-
loss
GWh
COPT
DL=
TDLT
OT15
4Co
mpute
d tota
lGW
hCT
YTOT
=RE
STOT
+INDT
OT+C
OMTO
T+LN
GTOT
+PUB
TOT+
TDLT
OT15
52.8
(8) Po
wer s
ector
useOw
n use
(Reco
rded)
GWh
POWS
UP=
POWT
OT*R
ECCH
P/100
156
Own u
se (Sh
edding
)GW
hPO
WSHD
=PO
WTOT
-POWS
UP15
7Ow
n use
(Com
puted
)GW
hPO
WTOT
=GR
OTOT
*POW
OWN/
100
158
Own u
se rat
ea.n
.PO
WOWN
=PO
WOWN
159
160
(9) G
ross G
enerat
ion
Coun
try (R
ecorde
d)GW
hGR
OSUP
=CT
YSUP
+POW
SUP
161
Coun
try (S
heddin
g)GW
hGR
OSHD
=CT
YSHD
+POW
SHD
162
Coun
try (C
ompu
ted)
GWh
GROT
OT=
CTYT
OT+P
OWTO
T16
3
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-33
93
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (9
)
164
3Po
wer d
eman
d YE
AR7
=YE
AR7
165
3.1Co
mpute
d dem
and
Gros
s gen
eratio
nGW
hCD
MGR
O=
GROT
OT16
6Lo
ad fa
ctor
%CD
MLO
A=
CDM
LOA
167
Gros
s pea
k dem
and
MW
CDM
PKD
=CD
MGR
O*10
00/24
/365/(
CDM
LOA/
100)
168
Reser
ve m
argin
%CD
MRE
SV=
CDM
RESV
169
Requ
ired c
apac
ityM
WCD
RCAP
=CD
MPK
D*(1+
CDM
RESV
/100)
170
Net d
eman
d(Ene
rgy)
GWh
CDM
NEG
=CT
YTOT
171
Net p
eak d
eman
d(Pow
er )M
WCD
MNP
W=
CTYT
OT*1
000/2
4/365
/(CDM
LOA/
100)
172
173
Shed
ding
GWh
CDM
SHE
=CT
YSHD
174
Shed
ding a
t pea
k dem
andM
WCD
MSH
P=
CDM
SHE*
1000
/24/36
5/(CD
MLO
A/10
0)17
5Sh
eddin
g rate
at pe
ak de
m%CD
MSH
R=
CDM
SHR
176
177
TCN
dema
ndGW
hCD
MPH
C=
CDM
NEG*
(1-CD
MAS
H/10
0)17
8Au
to pro
duce
r's de
mand
GWh
CDM
AUT
=CD
MNE
G*CD
MAS
H/10
017
9Au
to pro
duce
r sha
re%
CDM
ASH
=CD
MAS
H18
0TC
N pe
ak de
mand
MW
CDPP
HC=
CDM
PHC*
1000
/24/36
5/(CD
MLO
A/10
0)18
1Au
to pro
duce
r's pe
ak de
mMW
CDPA
UT=
CDM
AUT*
1000
/24/36
5/(CD
MLO
A/10
0)18
2
94
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (1
0)18
33.2
Reco
rded d
eman
dRe
corde
d ene
rgy de
mand
GWh
RECE
G=
CDM
NEG-
CDM
SHE
184
(Inclu
ding A
uto pr
oduc
ers)
Reco
rded p
eak d
eman
dM
WRE
CPW
=RE
CEG*
1000
/24/36
5/(CD
MLO
A/10
0)18
5Ca
tch up
%RE
CCHP
=10
0-CDM
SHR
186
Requ
red ca
pacit
yM
WRE
CRCA
P=
CDRC
AP*R
ECPW
/CDM
NPW
187
TCN
dema
ndGW
hRE
CGPH
=RE
CEG-
CDM
AUT
188
Auto
produ
cer's
dema
ndGW
hRE
CGAU
=CD
MAU
T18
9TC
N pe
ak de
mand
MW
RECM
PH=
RECP
W-C
DPAU
T19
0Au
to pro
duce
r's pe
ak de
mMW
RECM
AU=
CDPA
UT19
119
23.3
Off g
rid po
wer d
eman
dEn
ergy d
eman
d (Of
f grid
)GW
hOF
FGW
H=
OFFG
WH
193
Powe
r dem
and (
Off g
rid)M
WOF
FMW
=OF
FMW
194
Capa
city (
Off g
rid)
MW
OFFC
AP=
OFFI
NST-
OFFR
ET19
5Ins
talled
capa
city
MW
OFFI
NST
=OF
FINS
T19
6Re
tired c
apac
ityM
WOF
FRET
=OF
FRET
197
198
3.4Co
mpute
d dom
estic
powe
r dem
Energ
y dem
and
GWh
DOPO
POW
=CD
MNE
G+OF
FGW
H19
9Pe
ak de
mand
M
WDO
POPE
K=
CDM
NPW
+OFF
MW
200
Capa
city
MW
DOPO
CAP
=CD
RCAP
+OFF
CAP
201
202
3.5Re
corde
d dom
estic
powe
r dem
Energ
y dem
and
GWh
DORE
POW
=RE
CEG+
OFFG
WH
203
Peak
dema
nd
MW
DORE
PEK
=RE
CPW
+OFF
MW
204
Capa
city
MW
DORE
CAP
=RE
CRCA
P+OF
FCAP
205
95
Set
exp
ress
ions
in M
odel
she
et (1
1)
2063.6
Export
Energ
y dem
and
GWh
EXPG
WH=
Lag1.E
XPGW
H*(1+
0.7*(C
DMPH
C/Lag1
.CDMP
HC-1)
)207
Powe
r dem
and
MWEX
PMW
=EX
PGWH
*1000/
24/365
208Ca
pacity
requir
edMW
EXPC
AP=
EXPM
W*1.1
209 2103.7
Comp
uted c
ountry
powe
r de m
Energ
y dem
and
GWh
CNPO
POW
=DO
POPO
W+EX
PGWH
211On
+ Off
+ Exp
ortPea
k dem
and
MWCN
POPE
K=
DOPO
PEK+
EXPM
W212
Capac
ityMW
CNPO
CAP
=DO
POCA
P+EX
PCAP
213=
2143.8
Recor
ded co
untry
power d
emaE
nergy
demand
GW
hCN
REPO
W=
DORE
POW+
EXPG
WH215
On +
Off +
Expor
tPea
k dem
and
MWCN
REPE
K=
DORE
PEK+
EXPM
W216
Capac
ityMW
CNRE
CAP
=DO
RECA
P+EX
PCAP
217 2183.9
Comp
uted c
ountry
powe
r dem
Energ
y dem
and
GWh
TCNP
OW=
CDMN
EG+E
XPGW
H219
On +
Expor
tPea
k dem
and
MWTC
NPOP
EK=
CDMN
PW+E
XPMW
220Ca
pacity
MWTC
NPOC
AP=
CDRC
AP+E
XPCA
P221
96
5-4
Sim
ulat
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shee
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EX
4-3
Exp
ect y
ou to
rear
rang
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cim
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oint
s an
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like
in S
imul
atio
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a.S
elec
t the
rang
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Dat
a sh
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b.C
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the
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d.P
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the
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e ra
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in S
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AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-34
97
5-5
Gro
wth
rate
she
et
EX
4-4
Exp
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ou to
inpu
t the
exp
ress
ions
for t
he a
vera
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grow
th ra
te.
98
Than
k yo
u
AA5 Record of Other Study and Activity
A-5-35
A-6 Counterpart Program in Japan
A-6-1
A-6 Counterpart Program in Japan
1. Objective
One of the main purposes of this counterpart program is to raise awareness of the master plan widely
among relevant government agencies in Japan and Japanese companies (plant, electric equipment
manufacturers, general trading companies, etc.) respectively to exchange information and opinions.
Also provide opportunities for counterparts from the Government of Nigeria and relevant
organizations to introduce Japanese electricity policy and system.
2．Participants
# Name Ministry or
Company
Title
(English)
1 Mr. Ojo Stephen Olajide FMPWH Director, Finance & Accounts
2 Mr. Ayodele Ademola FMPWH Asst Director, Planning & Research
3 Mr. (Dr.) S.A. Owolabi FMPWH Chief Engineer, Energy Resources
4 Mr. (Engr.) Eneh Kingsley FMPWH Chief Engineer, Energy Resources
5 Mr. (Engr.) P.E. Okpanefe FMPWH Chief Engineer, Transmission Dept.
6 Mr. (Engr.) Ogunfeyimi G.J. FMPWH PTO, Distribution Dept.
7 Mr. (Engr.) S.B. Ayangeaor FMPWH Asst Chief Engineer, Renewable & Rural
8 Mr. (Engr.) Shehu Abba Aliyu TCN General Manager, System Planning & Development
9 Mr. (Engr.) Sunday Obi NERC Chief Engineer
10 Mr. (Engr.) Olayande J. Sunday ECN Director, Energy planning
- Mr. Gabriel Agidani JICA Nigeria office Consultant, Infrastructure Development
3．Time Schedule and Activities
The Table below provides the schedule of counterpart program in Japan. This program was held from
13th to 25th January 2019.
Schedule of Counterpart Program in Japan (draft)
Jan. Day Content Time Activity Destination Place
13 Sun. Travel 13:25～ Departing Nigeria (ET0910, ET0672) - －
14 Mon. Travel 19:20 Arrive in Tokyo - Tokyo
15 Tue.
Courtesy
visit
Lecture
08:45～09:30
10:00～11:00
13:00～14:00
14:00～15:00
14:00～18:00
- Guidance
- Courtesy call to Embassy of Nigeria
to Japan (under adjustment)
- Courtesy call to JICA HQ (under
adjustment)
- Meeting with JICA
- Discussion (MD)
Embassy in Tokyo,
JICA Ichigaya,
etc.
Tokyo
16 Wed. Study visit 07:30～09:30
10:00～12:30
- Travel
- Visit to Japanese manufacturer
Manufacturer of
Conductor Tokyo
A-6-2
Jan. Day Content Time Activity Destination Place
13:30～15:30
16:30～17:30
(Conductor)
(Introduction)
- Guidance, Lecture, Q&A]
- Travel
- Discussion (MD) @Yachiyo
17 Thu.
Discussion,
Seminar,
Travel
09:30～11:00
13:00～15:30
15:30～20:00
- Discussion & Signing of MD
@Yachiyo
- Seminar (presentation on master
plan, Q&A, exchange of opinions with
people in industrial sector)
- Travel
Tokyo Himeji
18 Fri. Travel,
Lecture
08:10 ~10:00
10:00 ~14:00
14:00～15:30
15:30～17:00
- MHPS Takasago Plant
- Travel
- Electric power in Japan
(Lecture/Q&A)
- Central Control Center
Gas Turbine
Manufacturer,
Kyushu Electric
Power Co., INC
Fukuoka
19 Sat. Visit - Observation of Urban Development Hakata city Fukuoka
20 Sun. Visit Observation of Urban Development Hakata city Fukuoka
21 Mon. Study visit
Travel,
10:00 ~12:00
14:30～16:00
16:00～17:30
- Pumped-storage hydroelectricity
power plant
- Hydroelectric power plant
- Travel
Kyushu Electric
Power Co., INC Beppu
22 Tue. Study visit
10:30～12:00
14:30～16:00
- LNG Thermal power plant
- Substation (500kV)
Kyushu Electric
Power Co., INC Beppu
23 Wed. Study visit,
Travel
09:00～10:30
10:30～12:00
12:00～19:00
- Travel
- Buzen Substation (High-capacity
Energy-storage System)
- Travel
Kyushu Electric
Power Co., INC Tokyo
24 Thu. Reporting
session
09:00～11:00
11:00～12:00
14:00～15:00
22:00～
- Prepare for Reporting
- Reporting session of Counterpart
Program
- Japan’s Electricity Policy and System
(Introduction)
Depart Tokyo (EK0319, EK0785)
Yachiyo Engineering －
25 Fri. Travel ～15:15 Arrive in Nigeria －
A-6-3
THE PROJECT FOR MASTER PLAN STUDY ON NATIONAL
POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA
TIME TABLE FOR SEMINAR
ON POWER SECTOR IN THE FEDERAL
REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA
VENUE: CONFERENCE ROOM “FUJI”, TOKYO GREEN PALACE
DATE: 17TH JANUARY, 2019 at 13:00 PM
Time Event/Activity Action by
13:00-13:15 Opening Remarks by Organizer
Introduction of the Representatives from
Nigeria
JICA
YEC
13:15-13:20 Key Note Address by the Representative
from Nigeria
FMPWH
13:20-13:25 Address by Embassy of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria in Japan
EOFRN
13:25-14:35 Introduction of Development Plan in the
Power Sector in Nigeria
FMPWH,TCN
13:25-13:50 Power Generation Development Plan FMPWH
13:50-14:10 Transmission Network Development
Plan
TCN
14:10-14:35 Encouraging Private Investment in the
Power Sector in Nigeria
FMPWH
14:35-14:55 Question and Answer All
14:55-15:00 Closing Remarks by the Representative
from Nigeria
FMPWH/ECN
15:00-15:30 General discussion through one to one
interaction
Voluntary
Participation
Note: Seminar is conducted in English. An interpreter will be supplied for question and answer
session. YEC: Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd. EOFRN: Embassy of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in Japan FMPWH: Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing TCN: Transmission Company of Nigeria ECN: Energy Commission of Nigeria
A-6-4
Record of Discussion
Project The Project for Master Plan Study on National Power System Development in the
Federal Republic of Nigeria (Seminar in Japan)
Venue Tokyo Green Palace
Date 17 January 2019, 13:00～15:30
【Contents】
Main objective of the Seminar in Japan is to raise awareness of the result of master plan for Nigerian power
system development widely among relevant Japanese companies of the industrial sector (plant, electric equipment
manufacturers, general trading companies, etc.) to provide message what the Nigerian Power Sector expects from
them. Contents of Question and Answer session are below.
Q1 In Nigeria, generation capacity is 7,600MW and I assume transmission capacity is about 5,100MW. When
Transmission capacity become same value as Generation? And how about distribution?
A1 Before the end of next year, several on-going transmission projects would that additional capacity which are
at the various stages of completion would have been completed to make the transmission wheeling capacity be
the same with generation.
Presently with the support of world bank, federal government of Nigeria have developed a project scheme call
distribution expansion projects to strengthen and expand the distribution networks at 33kV and 11kV levels
across the 11 discos regions, this is done to enable the distribution capacity match up with the available
generation and also to utilize the stranded generation capacity. The procurement process have already started
since last year with completion period 6 months. These projects when completed by end of last quarter of this
year will provide the additional capacity to match up with the generation capacity.
Q2 How the MP study will be implement?
To show the seriousness of government to implement the MP this involves various stages of implementation
these are;
i) When the draft MP was submitted, the Minister of power works and housing has directed that the document be
first review by all the stake holders in the Nigeria electricity supply industry (NESI) and come up with their
comments. Thereafter, the comments of the stakeholders will make the ministry present a memo to the federal
executive council for the MP document to form a potential policy document for the sector.
ii) The ministry is in process of acquiring an office for master plan engineers and will be provided with
equipment and necessary facility to periodically measure the level of implementation and review of the
documents as may be required in line with other government policy for the sector.
A-6-5
【Contents】
Q3-1 In the slide 42 of the presentation, what would be the sources of the budget of USD 1,381million for 330kV
to be able to achieve level of grid expansion proposed in the master plan TCN grid configuration, thus this
include JICA, AfDB and world bank funding have been taking into consideration?
Q3-2 If the transmission losses is high, is there any penalty for this?
A3-1 The budget estimation is what required to complete all on-going projects that are required to achieve n-1
criteria and grid expansion to the year 2020. This included federal government fund and all development partners
like JICA, AfDB and World Bank.
A3-2 In the MYTO regime, there is penalty for contravene the market rules, most especially the losses on the
transmission lines which specified loss of 8.05％, if the losses is above this, the system operator will fine for
transmitting above this limit. In another way round, if the system operator can minimize the losses below the
8.05%, the operator will be incentivize and rewarded accordingly.
Whenever a violation of the Commission’s Codes, regulations etc is established, the Commissioners determines
the amount of fine to be meted out to the relevant licensee. In some cases Nice is issued to the affected licensee
asking for explanation and reasons why the licensee should not be fine,
Q4 What is the relation between TCN and DISCO?
TCN is transmission company of Nigeria and DISCO is distribution company. TCN operate 330kV, 132kV and
transformers above 132/33kV.
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