128221 Democracy and Security Vol II No 6-7

132

Transcript of 128221 Democracy and Security Vol II No 6-7

1

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Content

dem

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cija

br 1

engf

inal

za

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pu:o

snov

a 2

0.4.

2010

10:

12 P

age

3

Editorial

The Lead Story

Dispatch

Inte rna ti onal Po li ti cs in BiH

Cu rre nt affa irs

In Focus

Su rplus of War Ma te ri al in BiH

Re gi onal Expe ri ences - without the

Reviews

Vlado Azinovi}

EU RO-A TLA NTIC INTE GRA TI ONOF THE WESTERN BA LKA NS

Danko Plevnik:DID NATO WIN IN THE BALKANS? Ne rzuk ]u rak:NA TO, DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU OWE?\o r|e La ti no vi }:THE WE STE RN ALLI A NCE AND BO SNIA-HE RZE GO VI NA:THE VI EW FROM RE PU BLI KA SRPSKAVla tko Cvrti la:NA TO AND THE RE PU BLIC OF CRO A TIA Sr|an Ku so vac:MO NTE NE GRO - THE NE XT ME MBER OF THE ALLI A NCE @a rko Pe tro vi }:THE INFLU E NCE OF RU SSIA ON EVE NTS IN SE RBIA Agron Ba jra mi:“AME RI CAN CO NNE CTI ON” IN KO SO VOVla do Azi no vi }:HOW DID TI TO USE NA TO

Jasna Peki}:A VI SIT TO THE TRA I NI NG CE NTER IN BU TMIR – RE A CHI NGNA TO STA NDA RDS THROUGH TOP-CLA SS EDU CA TI ON

Marko Attila Hoare:BO SNIA-HE RZE GO VI NA – THE CRU MBLI NG BA LKAN KE YSTO NE

Edina Be}irevi}:THE THE O RY AND PRA CTI CE OF AHMET DA VU TO GLU

Muhamed Jusi}:YE MEN – BE TWE EN AL-QA E DA AND THE USA

Ulrich Heider:A CO U NTRY OF DE A DLY PO TE NTI AL

Antonio Prlenda:CRO A TI AN HE LI CO PTE RS IN KO SO VO

Sead Tur~alo:CO NSE RVA TI VE VS. PRO GRE SSI VE GE O PO LI TI CS

ORGA NI SED CRI ME IN KA KI STO CRA CY

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Content

demokracija br 1engfinal za stampu:osnova 20.4.2010 10:12 Page 3

ContentTHE ALLURE OF ANALOGY

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA: MANAGING CRISIS

Kurt BassuenerONLY US ENGAGEMENT CAN PULL BOSNIA BACK FROM THE BRINK

Bodo WeberGERMANY’S SHIFT ON BOSNIA POLICY

BUILDING BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA BY OTHER MEANS

Zrinka Bralo i Kristina HemonBRITISH POLICY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

Arbër VllahiuKOSOVO AND THE EU

Britanski ambasador u BiH Michael TathamEU ENLARGEMENT MAKES STRATEGIC SENSE

AUSTRIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

REGULATIONS WITH NO FACE AND NO FORCE

An JacobsEU CIVILIAN CRISIS MANAGEMENT: A CRISIS IN THE MAKING?

THE DOMINO EFFECT

THE ARAB STREET HAS MADE ITS POINT

ISLAM AND POLITICS IN THE ARAB WORLD

THE ISLAMIC COMMUNITY OF CROATIA AND “CULTURAL TRAINING” FOR PEACE MISSIONS

ISLAMIC AGENTS AND NETWORK POLITICS IN POST-DAYTON BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

EDITORIAL

THE LEAD STORY

UNREST IN THE ARAB WORLD

RELIGION AND SECURITY

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5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

dem

okra

cija

br 1

engf

inal

za

stam

pu:o

snov

a 2

0.4.

2010

10:

12 P

age

3

Editorial

The Lead Story

Dispatch

Inte rna ti onal Po li ti cs in BiH

Cu rre nt affa irs

In Focus

Su rplus of War Ma te ri al in BiH

Re gi onal Expe ri ences - without the

Reviews

Vlado Azinovi}

EU RO-A TLA NTIC INTE GRA TI ONOF THE WESTERN BA LKA NS

Danko Plevnik:DID NATO WIN IN THE BALKANS? Ne rzuk ]u rak:NA TO, DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU OWE?\o r|e La ti no vi }:THE WE STE RN ALLI A NCE AND BO SNIA-HE RZE GO VI NA:THE VI EW FROM RE PU BLI KA SRPSKAVla tko Cvrti la:NA TO AND THE RE PU BLIC OF CRO A TIA Sr|an Ku so vac:MO NTE NE GRO - THE NE XT ME MBER OF THE ALLI A NCE @a rko Pe tro vi }:THE INFLU E NCE OF RU SSIA ON EVE NTS IN SE RBIA Agron Ba jra mi:“AME RI CAN CO NNE CTI ON” IN KO SO VOVla do Azi no vi }:HOW DID TI TO USE NA TO

Jasna Peki}:A VI SIT TO THE TRA I NI NG CE NTER IN BU TMIR – RE A CHI NGNA TO STA NDA RDS THROUGH TOP-CLA SS EDU CA TI ON

Marko Attila Hoare:BO SNIA-HE RZE GO VI NA – THE CRU MBLI NG BA LKAN KE YSTO NE

Edina Be}irevi}:THE THE O RY AND PRA CTI CE OF AHMET DA VU TO GLU

Muhamed Jusi}:YE MEN – BE TWE EN AL-QA E DA AND THE USA

Ulrich Heider:A CO U NTRY OF DE A DLY PO TE NTI AL

Antonio Prlenda:CRO A TI AN HE LI CO PTE RS IN KO SO VO

Sead Tur~alo:CO NSE RVA TI VE VS. PRO GRE SSI VE GE O PO LI TI CS

ORGA NI SED CRI ME IN KA KI STO CRA CY

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Content

demokracija br 1engfinal za stampu:osnova 20.4.2010 10:12 Page 3

ContentKathrin QuesadaARE WE GETTING IT RIGHT?

Maja Dimc i Bojan DobovšekA STUDY OF NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES

SECURITY AS A SERVICE

THE RISE OF THE RADICAL RIGHT IN EUROPE

Ian KershawGHOSTS OF FASCISTS PAST

BEYOND DAYTON

THE ICJ ON THE LEGALITY OF KOSOVO’S DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE

A NEW COLD WAR, A NEW WORLD ORDER, OR THE END OF HISTORY?

NEW SECURITY ISSUES

TURNING RIGHT

IN MEMORIAM

OUTLOOKS

ACADEMIC WORKSHOP

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demokracija br 1engfinal za stampu:osnova 20.4.2010 10:12 Page 4

www.atlantskainicijativa.org

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dem

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Instead of an editorial…

The Allure of Analogy

EDITORIALEditor-in-Chief

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The author is a Sarajevo-based Senior Associate of the

Democratization Policy Council

The US has been frustrated by the current situation in Bosnia, but has also remained aloof, engaging episodically and then retreating. A shift seemed to be at hand with the visit of Vice President Joe Biden in May 2009, but the State Department dropped the ball...

By: Kurt Bassuener

Events are moving in a perilous direction in Bosnia and Herzegovina – and at a dangerous pace. While interna-

ongoing crisis in the Federation, the Republika Srpska has

stroy state institutions, with essentially no opposition by the international community that spent well over a decade working to establish these very institutions. The situation is dangerously close to a breaking point, as local political actors increasingly doubt that the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) will uphold its responsibility to prevent state

lations that could generate such events.

While the spotlight is currently on turmoil in the Federa-

de facto and independence. In this

the same script as Montenegro did when it was still a part

as Yugoslavia did1 and by stating that he intended to hold

2

disassemble state institutions, particularly in the justice and economic sectors. His government is threatening to cease paying VAT receipts into the Single Account and is

letter. And the RS Assembly’s Security Committee Chair,

velop its own intelligence service.3

Only US Engagement Can Pull Bosnia Back from the Brink

The Lead Story

9

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monopoly on those ministerial posts in the Federation and

would allow them to block government activity. This was

-

-

-

be without a government.”4 The two HDZs have called the

options; the Central Election Commission has launched 5

but The Federation Constitutional Court has yet to rule

-

-cern is rising that Croat-majority municipalities may cease to respect Federation authority and assemble their own common institutions – a de facto third entity.

As Bosnian Serb and Bosnian Croat nationalist party lead-ers work in tandem to undercut Bosnia’s territorial integ-rity, Croatia and Serbia are now more deeply engaged in

own democratic transitions just over a decade ago. This is

Beyond Bosnian Croats having votes in Croatia’s elections, Zagreb’s direct involvement in BiH domestic politics was

in the Western Balkans in the last decade. Regrettably, this

-tion to accept the HDZs into government on their terms.

-ues to double-deal the BiH – claiming to support the ter-

antagonist, RS President Milorad Dodik. On March 18th,

relations between Belgrade and Banja Luka, the Serbian Government held a joint session with the Government

the RS Government, which received loans totaling 21 mil-lion KM. These moves are seen by many as linked both to

dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, brokered by the EU – with RS independence apparently being seen by some

-pendence.8 Zagreb and Belgrade have both returned to destabilizing Bosnia and Herzegovina.

THE INTERNATIONAL DETERRENCE FAILURE

The international community’s response to these twin -

which there seems to be no appetite among the mem-

counseled dialogue and caution, but in actuality this policy has only emboldened the HDZs, which are pressing their

-

9

-ther behind in the European integration process. Discus-

mean. The best the Council, Commission, and the new

EU presence” will do is to say that it will improve EU visibil-ity and credibility.11 This represents a complete disconnect between international policy and the reality on the ground.

--

to this state. All political actors in Bosnia are operating

10

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Lead

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-

that there is no international will to ensure compliance

the state. While the EU majority sees everything through

other policy instruments, some actors on the PIC Steer-ing Board (Great Britain, the United States, Turkey, Japan and Canada) have misgivings about the current approach, wishing to maintain and employ – as and when needed –

12 However, this is merely -

sels’ enlargement-centric approach has been developed. Germany has taken a leading role in subverting these

OHR to the EU Delegation.

-unity in Europe; Milorad Dodik in Republika Srpska, who has accurately assessed an unwillingness to resist him and

the situation to his own political gain.

that leaves all domestic political actors taking advantage -

sions, already stoked by economic pressure, are rising as

to spark events that generate their own momentum. And

incurs vast costs – human and material – later.

CATALYZING WESTERN UNITY

No single actor, even a theoretically united EU, can succeed alone. Only a united West – the EU, US, Turkey, Japan and

stronger policy that is tuned to needs on the ground in -

plicit admission that the currently policy approach has

a consistent and dedicated initiative by the US Govern-

-rent approach – Britain, Turkey, the Netherlands, Japan and Canada – would also need to develop and unite around a

-

and the PIC. The Brussels machinery that has been driving

states. Since Germany has so recently spent political capi-

would probably make this possible.

Europe and Republika Srpska was immediate. Then-US

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt during Sweden’s EU

--

panying policy statements were weak. Even when directly

that she was against it – not that action would be taken to prevent it.13 This was a missed opportunity.

a common strategy meant to stop the accelerating decay -

Secretary Clinton to choose a new designated actor, who

WESTERN UNITY, BUT BEHIND WHAT STRATEGY?

-

-viding solutions to BiH’s economic, institutional, and se-

11

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the North Atlantic Charter’s Article 5 would not provide -

recent entrants, Romania and Bulgaria, are evidence that

deeply rooted problems less soluble. The EU’s leverage is

-bling popular domestic consensus on how to make the

-tutional order is essential, and not one that is just a slightly

Work toward this challenging goal has long been in the -

country to its current condition.

There are no acceptable shortcuts. A new Western policy strategy to support BiH citizens to create a state structure

-

a united BiH (and these are not just Bosniaks), need to

the RS must trust that any constitutional and structural -

proval; this is the present-day reality, but RS President Milo-

also believe that their interests will be taken into account in such a process. All citizens need to be assured that violence will not be tolerated by the international community. A lack

instruments as needed, with clear messaging that a system-ic solution is something only Bosnian citizens can achieve,

-

-

strategy, not by stealth or fait accompli, as seems to be the -

sels. It would also mean moving the goalposts to where

been superseded by a new constitutional order, arrived at through broad popular participation. Meanwhile, the 5+2 objectives and conditions should be maintained as policy

not suited to deterrence. It should stop engaging in activi-ties that are not commensurate with its role as a Chapter

-

with its

some other unit based in Europe. It should also consider -

-ble, calming the overall political environment considerably. EUFOR ought to have an operational presence in Mostar as well, and regularly deployed reconnaissance missions to patrol the Butmir-Mostar and Butmir-Tuzla communica-tions lines.

-tic powerbrokers in BiH) by looking so intently toward its

conditioned perception that the international community

-ternally under the current system – and until this is done,

But once citizens have been reassured that their politi-

risk, a great deal more becomes possible. This is an area

12

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-tural, economic, legal, etc. – also has enormous potential to

being talked at by their politicians and by the international community. They instead need to be encouraged and em-powered to believe that the West cares about what they think – not just what their leaders think. The debate must

WHAT ABOUT THE RUSSIANS?

-

---

these and Italy being the most reliable. But the PIC is not a

-

Remember the “Common European Home” – the idea to

Still, when the chips are down, Russia does not have a ma-

So, while Moscow would not welcome the needed policy

WAITING FOR THE AMERICANS…AGAIN

-where. But one also senses an unwillingness to engage too deeply in what the EU would like to regard as an internal

-settlingly similar to the situation that long prevailed during the Bosnian war.

This must change – and soon. Recent events clearly show -

political reality; in this case, engaging bilaterally and multi-laterally to assemble a coalition aimed at achieving Bosnia’s

the PIC, with sympathetic views in London, Ankara, The Hague, Ottawa, and Tokyo. But individual concern and

NOTES:

1 Quoted in: -

2

-

3 Nezavisne Novine

4

5 Hopkins, Valerie, “Nationalists prolong political stalemate in Bos-nia,” -

-

, March 24, pp. 4-5.“Zagreb Backs Croats in Bosnia, CEC to Decide on New Govern-ment,”

8

9

naše Hrvate i Srbe” (Lajcak: It is dangerous political engineering to invent our Croats and Serbs),

-

Füle paper.11 steps...”12 -

13 Bassuener, Kurt, “Clinton’s Balkans Visit: A Missed Opportunity,”

13

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The author is a Senior Associate at the Democratization

Policy Council, Berlin

A combination of strategic impatience and a lack of will led to the international community’s attempt to square the circle in 2005, when it announced a transition to the phase of EU integration and in doing

condition according to its own paradigm shift and not the reality on the ground

By: Bodo Weber

Germany’s shift on Bosnia policy

The Lead Story

the Merkel initiative, political commentators in BiH and

to Bosnia.”1

had remained committed to Bosnia, hopes were rekin-

tion inside the EU, and together with other like-minded members (such as Britain) develop a serious European

and the EU (the talks were meant to be secretive – no coordination was made with other European govern-ments thanks to a strange disassociation between the

GERMANY LEADS THE SOFT-LINER CAMP

other EU leadership role that the German government had already taken on. Since the current German gov-

European Union. It joins France, Italy, Sweden, and the

the Commission and the Council – and now the new

odd alliance with others (including Russia) has largely

Bosnia’s worst political crisis since the 1995 Dayton

14

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CRO

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N H

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O SO

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Tur

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VS. P

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will to deal with Bosnia on its own complicated political terms, and to develop a strategy commensurate with real need, this leading EU camp has consistently en-deavored to ignore the on-the-ground reality. Instead, it has tried, against growing evidence, to apply Brussels’

-tegration that evolved through the accession processes

-dence that this standardized approach – based on the

this group has waged a subversive war against those international institutions mandated by Dayton with

rendered international policy in Bosnia weak, disarmed, and disunited.

-2

the EU and the US, has gone through several stages.

3

-

and the transition to a strictly EU presence. Berlin – along with Moscow, Rome, and Paris, as well as Brussels – instead pushed to simply declare victory on 5+2.

German government was among the most reluctant to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina a Membership Ac-tion Plan (MAP).

--

and among other Peace Implementation Council (PIC) members to give up on the 5+2 agenda on the premise that it is “blocking the EU-integration setting to be put in place” and as “we have set these conditions… we can annul them” – again without success.4

-

Delegation, aimed at eroding both the OHR and

among EU and PIC member states.

This current government’s policy toward Bosnia must -

-

A DECADE OF BOSNIA NON-POLICY

-ern Balkans policy was determined largely by regime

-gion as a whole. While Berlin remained engaged (though

-tribute to the international community’s civil and military missions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the Red-Green

pursued a Bosnia non-policy. Green Foreign Minister -

nia issue – based on the cynical, yet true, assessment that

as a global player – and his Social Democratic coalition partner was preoccupied with ties to Serbia.

Christoph Heusgen: Chancellor Angela Merkel’s foreign policy-maker

15

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Lead

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Inte

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With the incoming grand coalition led by Chancellor -

-

Merkel nominated the only conservative politician with a reputation in the Western Balkans, Christian Schwarz-Schilling, to become the new High Repre-sentative. With a German also soon occupying the

into a leadership position in Bosnia.

--

handed over responsibility in the Western Balkans to

-

-

The latter has presented additional challenges in the

-eign states with political elites and populations that had

a joint interest and strong will to join the EU – were largely not in place, especially in Bosnia.

and not the reality on the ground. Political elites were

-nian public eight months ahead

become the new strongman in the Serb entity and the

making the EU the single most responsible actor in the current political crisis.

It is remarkable both how Germany has moved into a leading position at this breaking point and how it has

-

-

Berlin should take the initiative in Bosnia and Herzegovina

16

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tween the CDU and SPD were still ongoing. That the

Germany’s reputation on the global scene than at the -

ment decisions were not accompanied by any actual in-

Schwarz-Schilling struggled with his “mission impos-sible” assignment and with the new political crisis his own weak mandate had created on the ground – and needed to use the Bonn powers – he was undermined by the same Western governments that had ushered him in, including his own.5

year. He was told his mandate would not be renewed

on his shoulders, despite their own clear liability. When

episodic engagement in Bosnia passed almost without notice among the German public and political elite.

THE BALKAN WARS AS A GERMAN TRAUMA

This national ignorance can only be understood against

-

policy had largely been determined by its national so-

nie wieder

” (war never again) and with transatlantic integra-

-

(Eastern policy) aimed at dialogue with the Soviet bloc.

a national interest-driven policy, Germany evolved into

not have any relevant traditions on which to build.

changed Europe’s landscape and the world order, a post-

own will. Since then, it has had a hard time accepting

and security policy arenas. And, to this day, Germany has an especially hard time discussing national interests.

global peace and democracy, it also represented a spe-

wars and ethnic violence in the Balkans were a shock

-litical and public debates that marked Germany’s dis-course on the Balkan wars were thus more about inter-

Balkans than about the Balkans and what was going on there. -

disorder.

politicians and Balkan correspondents that compelled --

cians were CDU Telecom and Post Minister Christian

among them the one-day Foreign Minister Joschka Fis-

-ment. What linked conservative rebels like Schwarz-Schilling with these Greens was Germany’s Nazi legacy. Schwarz-Schilling’s activism on Bosnia was linked to his personal history in the Second World War,8 and Fis-cher and his Green colleagues’ activism was motivated

-tary missions abroad represented a radical departure

-

years later, when Fischer was Foreign Minister, he again -

-ety’s strong resistance against a new 21st-Century real-

17

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solely on moral, not political, grounds.

-

-

– was immediately challenged by the war over Kosovo. Germany agreed to take part in NATO’s actions there,

-

-

Kosovo was ill-designed both politically and militarily, the Alliance was happy in the end to emerge success-

moral rationalization,9 which had served as Berlin’s ba-

in security policy.

-

-

-

necessary, was strongly motivated by an underlying

-

events such as Srebrenica which had once had such in-

-kel government.

THE EURO CRISIS AND THE GERMAN

FOREIGN POLICY SHIFT

served to increase the gap between Germany’s post-

discourse that could lead to a collective understanding

-tent anti-American sentiment in German society and

same time, reaction to the policy papered-over the still-

role in the world.

with the world economic crisis and the eurozone cri-

up against its traditional European partners, like France.

-ward a national interests-based European (and wider

-

--

11 Simultaneously, one can detect a strong and growing pull among both elites

current Merkel government and with Merkel’s personal political style – one based on cogitation, not on leader-

rather than one that creates or leads. That is accompa-

--

EU member states due to the integration process. But -

THE MERKEL INITIATIVE IS THE

HEUSGEN INITIATIVE

in which several more deeply-seated trends converge: an -

18

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Inte

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elites, German society’s uneasy relationship with Bosnia and Bosnian war heritage, a current government that

---

where he had held a top bureaucratic post; Heusgen

the European Commission. And that’s where the hard-

--

integration-driven Bosnia policy that lies at the heart -

with political leaders in Berlin. It was Schwarz-Schilling’s --

litical elites, and instead gave away the Stabilization and

the Slovak Foreign Minister. It was no less telling that

Neighborhood and the Western Balkans in the EU’s

The Heusgen initiative points to the only possible way

-

addressing those governments that already take Bosnia policy seriously, as opposed to worrying about Brussels. How that may look in practice has been seen in the

-12 -

sels and in European capitals will continue to risk Euro-pean security with negligent policy in Bosnia.

NOTES:

1

2

trip to Europe, where he told political elites that the country was

3

Bosnia policy, see: Kurt Bassuener, and Bodo Weber, “Are we

4

5

For a good illustration, see especially: Frank Schirrmacher, ed., (Stuttgart 1999).

-ment’s inaction.

8

9 When the incoming German government joined the war it sig-naled to its NATO partners that this break with its security dog-

troops. This turned the war against Serbia over Kosovo into a --

-

On German Antiamericanism see: Dan Diner,

11

12

-

an ongoing schism.

19

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

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Inte

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i ona

l Po l

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The author is Croatian media correspondent in Brussels

High Representative Ashton has placed the Western Balkans, and especially Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the focus of her foreign policy. This decision was based in the fact that EU policy in the Western Balkans has been very effective over the past ten years due to the wish of all countries in the region to join the Union, resulting in their willingness to accept a policy of conditionality

By: Ines Sabalic

Building Bosnia and Herzegovina by other Means

The Lead StoryFrom Brussels

into its bloc. The intention is that the these countries remain interested in joining the Union and have the im-pression they are progressing toward that end, but that

nects Enlargement with its Neighborhood Policy, which can have some advantages.

This new approach to Enlargement was suggested by

ditions (“There should be no short cuts to member-

1

erative standards and methodology, but also compliance

a pace set by the candidate countries (“progress accord-

through measurable results achieved by strict condi-tionality.” Thus a new instrument has been introduced into the Enlargement process – benchmarks. In order

potential candidates will have to comply with them.

Today, candidate country Montenegro has yet to meet

20

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oria

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The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

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iH

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-

now are rather ambiguously general, susceptible to in-

thus harder to meet.

THE PARADOX OF MOTION

--

-

can never overtake the pursued. The European Union is

-es where the Tortoise has

to reach where he is, and Achilles must catch up again.

Countries in the region never considered the road to

-

However, the road leading to Brussels is not one that can

-

are perpetually trying to catch the elusive Tortoise.

still in essentially the same spot they were when they began the race. Serbia, BiH, and Kosovo are not even candidates, and Macedonia is the eternal candidate. Montenegro is unlikely to be allowed to proceed on the

EU has kept these countries at a distance, but they have

meet set conditions. There is some sad humor in how

this, and why these two countries have rightly been

hopes and possibilities.

The European Commission is aware that the public in

-

--

Netherlands is based today.

In such an atmosphere, progress toward visa liberali-

was slow. The process was supposed to go unnoticed in member countries, in order not to alarm the public that the region is moving closer to them.

-alization, but even Croatia – which is just one step away

-slav countries are advising them to “take care that no

on Western European media regarding news about visa

-

-stances, the hope is that the process does not stall on the European side and is assured by continuity compelled by

will publish its annual progress report on candidates and potential candidates – its in-depth analysis on re-

-

-

-

21

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candidate Macedonia will join Serbia and Montenegro, --

bia to advance. In the case that democrats do not win

-

never discussed, in European plans.

THE HOPEFUL AND THE HOPELESS

have a chance to progress, and the other is made up

which Europe does not know what to do. Countries that stand a chance are Serbia and candidate Montene-gro, while those with less hope include candidate Mac-edonia, and then Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and Kosovo.

For years now, BiH has been seen as the gravest se-

-tions among its peoples, an increase in nationalist rhet-oric, an ailing economy, and security concerns related to

politically overcome its wartime trauma, although the international community, especially the EU, have tried to help it do so.

When it realized that the European attempt to build

--

ative; the primary concern was that political elites did

-kers, to urge amendments to the Constitution that will

-

would punish their politicians who were causing delays. Surely, they thought, BiH would want something that is

-

--

but is too weak to persuade Bosnians to embrace them.

-mir negotiations was that a hard-line approach did not

those suggested by the EU and US. Brussels has, there--

-per in which they announced greater EU engagement in Bosnia, meant to occur simultaneously with the de-

Delegation to BiH was born.

High Representative Ashton has placed the Western Balkans, and especially Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the

by Javier Solana, security was seen as the main Euro-pean issue in the Balkans, and countries in the Western

integration. In this respect, the Union’s two biggest ven--

lates relations between Albanian and Macedonian com-

aimed at democratization and Europeanization, but were constructed as security mechanisms to prevent

BiH, was seen as the crucial security matter in the re-

Serbia was driven by desires to buy more time to solve

It was only later that the EU turned its attention back -

tice that the country had not made any progress in the meantime, but had instead partly stagnated and partly

22

Edit

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regressed. It had become “a bigger problem than Koso-

COORDINATED

TRANSATLANTIC POLICY

-

are progressing, but BiH is lagging behind. The dynamic

been idealized, but it has generally been accepted that

the Balkans, that the region has been stabilized in terms

been democratically consolidated – although in BiH less than the rest.

-

-ings between American and European diplomats, their

were held, Americans had insisted that BiH be strength-

EU members. The annual report on progress submit-

suggestions regarding the OHR, stating that, “in order

-

2

-

-

-ment in the country,” but it does not demand that these issues be resolved.3

-

conditions and goals the country should meet were

when asked directly that the principal document – the

4

The standpoint which was advocated by the US and

has proven too hard to achieve. The idea that the EU

up on. Instead, a view previously advocated by some European countries, according to which the process it-

– which involves simultaneously building the state and moving toward integration into the EU – has been put

both the EU and the US is simply that BiH become “a 5

--

domestic political elites were abandoned. In this way,

-tional players.

-

-nation” regarding integration into Europe. A BiH gov-

programs (meeting EU conditions and simultaneously

-derstood as a national interest.

package must be designed, and an agreement must be reached on the European clause (which the EU negoti-ates at the state level only) and the laws passed on state subsidies and census.

23

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

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Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

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-cess will strengthen the country, and with every new step, BiH will become more and more Europeanized

-

to convey the EU ideas,” and, “a very strong person, emboldened with all the instruments we have, includ-ing both those that motivate and those that sanction,

--

--

ska, which is not an option, but it has been stressed that

constantly reiterated at meetings with BiH leaders.

state building. However, what is new is the notion that -

would remold the country in their own vision, but by Europeanized national elites who should be able to persuade voters that movement in this direction is in their best interest. The power to remain attractive to Bosnia and Herzegovina, just as it was to the other Bal-

Croatia, is what the EU counts on.

EU policy toward BiH. Talks with Bosnian leaders, who were called to Berlin, were managed and directed by

Klaus Kinkel during the time that decisions were made on military interventions in BiH and Serbia. Germany is not the only country leading and creating the EU’s Bosnia policy, but it is crucial in developing the part that

constitutional changes. Besides Germany, the policy is

-ern European countries, Slovakia and Slovenia are also deemed important.

EU member states have agreed that BiH should be in-cluded in the true integration process as soon as possi-ble. Slovenia believes that the country would be helped

was brought about with greater speed. Bosnia and

countries which is considered more progressive (“the

in which state building could be conducted through ne-

-pean Commission, and most member countries believe,

-

delayed visa liberalization, they have known very well

The High Representative sees absolutely no reason

whether these conditions are met or not.”

FROM BERLIN TOWARD BRUSSELS

In the meantime, Germany has become a key player in

-

Germans see their part as discussing with leaders the

ready-made solutions. It is clear that the message that it

behind closed doors as well.

-

-

--

those who stand chance or those who don’t. The hope is that rationality will shape whether BiH stagnates or

-tions are within reach and that the Bosnian public wants EU membership.

24

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

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Inte

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in B

iH

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5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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-ally new leading position in Europe, especially in the eu-

-cesses in the EU; but it also signals the understanding that an authoritative hand should rule in BiH. Brussels has perhaps less authority in BiH than Berlin. Deeper

-eign policy set by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davuto lu. Turkish interest in the Balkans was awakened by and

attractiveness. However, their impact in resolving Bal-kan issues was less than generally predicted, though-Turkey will stay active in the Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Some American analyses have concluded that German

been ramped up in order to neutralize the engage-

region. This, however, is an overstatement. Germany

the Balkans into the European Union, which it has

-

-didate is likely to advance. In the case that a political decision is made down the line that the enlargement process should be accelerated, the road to Brussels will be less littered with obstacles, and unless a candidate

perpectual race.

-

process is much harder than it was in previous enlarge-ment cycles. Beginning negotiations is nowadays seen as

-

they are achieving “concrete results and not just tick-

is created that every step made by a Balkan candidate,

-

-

Balkans, the EU, which is going through a rough patch

When it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is the -

-nomic crisis abates, a new common European budget is decided on, a new strategic agreement between Russia

-dle East. Whatever the new Mediterranean geopolitical reality, small Balkan countries which are not among the

-maturity”, in which collective pressure would likely stim-

NOTES:

1

--

2

3

4 A condition which cannot be avoided,” SRNA, November

bez-kojeg-se-ne-moe.html5 -

tions,” Elsässer, Jürgen, “Der Mann, der Merkel die Ideen gibt,” ,

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the right balance between intrusive pressure and benevolent neglect...

By: Zrinka Bralo & Kristina Hemon

British Policy in the Western Balkans

The Lead StoryThe EU Way or No Way at All

is dominated by the coalition government’s manage-

local governments to downsized national departments. At times, backlash against the government’s austerity measures has spilled into the streets, as was the case

risings against various undemocratic leaders who have

largest economy in the world and the third largest in

the “war on terror”, and Britain’s special relationship

cial relationships; indeed, the UK is a key global player

cluding in the Western Balkans.

political, military, and administrative interventions in the

1 and there is an understanding between the UK, Europe, and the US

Zrinka Bralo is a journalist and executive director of the Migrant and Refugee

Communities Forum in London

Kristina Hemon is a Policy and Voice

Communities Forum in London

26

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that instability in the Balkans is not an option – despite pressing domestic issues, two ongoing wars, and the

Western Balkans has been outsourced to EU processes, -

through its role in the EU.

Despite British ambivalence toward the EU, there seems to have been consensus within, and agreement between, the previous and current UK governments

-

Britain in a strong Europe is the best way to preserve and advance our values and interests in the modern world.”2 The current Foreign Secretary, William Hague, has stayed this same course.

and press reports reveal that an interest in the Western Balkans, and in Bosnia and Herzegovina in particular, is

3

In a public arena overwhelmed by competing news pri-

developments in the Western Balkans on the British agenda. Baroness Ashton and Lord Ashdown, who, in their respective past and present roles in the EU and the British Parliament, have championed developments

A little known Labor peer, Baroness Ashton may have

-

EU Foreign Policy.4

Lord Ashdown, a Liberal Democrat peer, has a higher

controversy.5

THE CARROT OR THE STICK?

responsibility is to the Western Balkans. European membership is seen as the only prize big enough to

vested interests and entrenched views.

British government have made it clear that the chal-

-tic, and corrupt. There is also recognition that Bosnia

-mented constitutional structure and internal disputes, which may leave it lagging behind its neighbors on the path to EU membership.

and two conditions -

-ropean Union. Essentially, Bosnia and Herzegovina has

a serious accession candidate.8 To achieve this, it needs

-

signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement with -

Implementation Council (PIC) Steering Board, based on -

mains as elusive as ever.

In reality, most Britons resent EU bureaucracy when it

--

achieved prior to their accession. Britain has decided to

-

did not capture either public or parliamentary imagi-nation in the UK. However, it would be misleading to speculate that Britain had no interest in the visa liber-alization program, as it still subscribes to other Schen-gen provisions such as judicial and police cooperation.

-

27

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that there are no shortcuts made in the transition pro-

-tween intrusive pressure and benevolent neglect, by

Bosnia and Herzegovina.9

--

Representative sooner than later, as was outlined in a re-

in and then-Shadow Conservative Foreign Secretary Wil-liam Hague jointly outlined their shared policy position.

-

The international community should be pre-pared to use sticks as well as carrots. There is a

-tions against politicians who undermine the Bos-

achieved. Meanwhile, the High Representative

that all parties know they cannot sit out the inter-national presence in the country.11

--

the rules, the European Commission honored its prom-ise. The European Enlargement Commissioner stressed

-

their own leaders.”12

-

that still have an uneasy relationship with each other.

-

border dispute, Serbia’s cooperation with the Interna-

and property.

Importantly, the visa regime process illustrated how a

works in practice; it also signaled that past trespasses

long as there is compliance and cooperation in the pre-

in the accession process. Instead, regional leaders and

HURRY UP AND WAIT

-lenge in the Western Balkans as it is counterintuitive

-ing asked to “get over themselves” – and to reprogram

-

their countries will be rewarded with EU membership.

-

regional leaders and the electorate now. It could indeed

-

advocated that additional capacity be made available to Western Balkans countries in order to cope with the

deal with the region, especially given recent challenges -

can uprisings, must yet be developed.

Recently, Baroness Ashton appointed Miroslav Lajcak,

-

Bosnia and Herzegovina?

28

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leaked a secret plan that indicates Baroness Ashton intends to appoint a pow-

-

13

-

British establishment, the appointment must be agreed 14

were again raised that Lady Ashton would soon make -

Bosnia,” but did not elaborate on that strategy. He did say, though, that the new EU envoy would take over the

-15

--

swers: Why so much mystery over this “clear strategy”

job? What is the job? Can the Western Balkans even whipped into shape by one person?

-one able to keep everyone in the region, along with the EU and the US, happy and cooperating, without pres-

-cession is achieved, since its terms and conditions have

no way at all.

It could be argued that EU pressure is needed to bring

Sarajevo remains unclear.

-

see necessary changes through.

Britain continues to be engaged in the Western Balkans, despite competing priorities at home and abroad. It is

Western Balkans, and this commitment should not be un-

NOTES:

1

2 The Rt Hon David Miliband, “Strong Britain...”3 The Rt Hon David Miliband, “Strong Britain...”4

5

Hague, William and Paddy Ashdown, “Europe and America must pay attention to broken Bosnia,”

8 Hague and Ashdown, “Europe...”9 -

Grabbe, Heather, Gerald Knaus and Daniel Korski, “Beyond

11 --

12 -

the EU Schengen White List Conditions,” European Stability Ini-

13

Bosnia,”

14 Traynor, Ian, “Paddy Ashdown proposed as European special

15

-

29

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The author is a journalist for the BBC’s Albanian Service

Incomplete EU policy on Kosovo has created a one-way relationship between Brussels and Pristina, with no clear vision of what Kosovo means to Europe...

By: Arbër Vllahiu

Kosovo and the EU

The Lead Story

A small country in the Western Balkans, known as the poorest in Europe, Kosovo is nevertheless determined

a path toward the EU is not based on a contractual

year’s domestic political turbulence, which led to the

alog with the EU.

Kosovo is an international protectorate, a relationship the US has set as a priority and wishes to see change, but which the Europeans see as an inevitability. While its

ent country, Kosovo continues to be monitored by the

Security seems to dominate the relationship between Kosovo and the EU, but it is not recent political instabil-

all, the EU has been involved in Kosovo since the de-

region. The youngest Western Balkans country, and with “conditional” independence, Kosovo is multiethnic and

tiethnic make-up. Nevertheless, the country has not yet

institutions and EU policy toward Kosovo is considered

Kosovo’s status.

Belgrade has been led by the UN and its envoy, the

30

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President Ahtisaari1, but it has not been adopted by the UN Security Council because the Russian Federation

-

remaining hold outs are bound to become the most

Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Slovakia, and Romania, which -

IMF and the World Bank, Kosovo has also been seeking membership in the EBRD, but there is little possibility

member states.

-tice,2 which clearly ruled that Kosovo has not violated international law or UNSC Resolution 1244 by declar-

EU states that stand against Kosovo. This unchangeable -

able and only marginally accepted country in the view

countries not to recognize its independence has com-plicated relationships between Balkan states and, more

-

Incomplete EU policy on Kosovo has created a one-way relationship between Brussels and Pristina, with no

the EU means to Kosovo. As long as Kosovo remains stable, with no security threats and under the control

-

Ischinger, purport that Kosovo is essentially a Europe-

primary responsibility to turn [Kosovo] into a success story. Regrettably, the Union’s inability to agree on a

common policy has not only weakened its role on the international level, but has also become a major obsta-

3

-pendence, Kosovo had been included in various ways in

--

grave humanitarian situation4) and through the process

the UN. For some years, the European Commission

-sociation. This mechanism, at the time it was established, placed Kosovo among countries without a clear status

an independent country.

When the mechanism was established as a main tool in the dialog between Brussels and Pristina, Kosovo was under heavy UNSC Resolution 1244 administration

-

Michael Steiner. Eight guidelines meant to help Kosovo

Pristina that took place within the Tracking Mechanism

Ahtisaari: Kosovo is primarily a European problem

31

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was never conducted directly with Kosovo’s authori-

The European Union claims that its presence in Kosovo

-

Community Budget. In total, the EU and its member states

the European Commission has operated in Kosovo since

and police. This mission was deployed in Kosovo despite

5 days be-

EU structures in Kosovo maintain a neutral position on

law mission – is operating under UNSC Resolution 1244.

European perspective. Strained relations between Kosovo

to accept the new reality in Kosovo, have changed the Eu-

the EU both”, challenging the international community, es-pecially those countries that have recognized Kosovo as a

integration in the last two years, but has said it will not -

-nia and Herzegovina in trade relations with other coun-tries in the region, per the Central European Fair Trade

-

is predominantly Serb and does not recognize Pristina au-

a great impact on the situation. There are many possible -

has postulated, negotiations driven by violence that lead to partition.

While Kosovo has lost, yet again, the opportunity to

-

with it on the joint Resolution adopted by the UN Gen-eral Assembly last year. The EU is now calling on both sides

the lead in a complicated process where “technical” issues can very easily become “political” ones.

8 and oth-

in 1999, along with problematic elections in December -

ous relationship with the EU. Many initiatives have been stopped and many more pre-accession dialogs blocked. From a country with EU aspirations and the international

Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia two years ago, the Schengen process last year brought Albania and Bosnia

Kosovo is recognised by 75 countries

32

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in this sense Kosovo is becoming an isolated country, -

dialog on visa liberalization and at the same time get the -

9 Kosovo was

EU stresses nonetheless that the region and Kosovo should move toward European integration.

It remains to be seen whether this process will really

very easily be the last state in the region to join the EU;

NOTES:

1

-

2 , July 22,

3

4

5 --

8 Marty, Dick,

9 European Commission, -

33

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British government approach is not pro- or anti- any particular nationality, ethnic group, or religion. What we are trying to do is help and encourage all the countries in the region to move together down a track toward Euro-Atlantic integration, toward EU and NATO membership. That is an agenda that has no

region as a whole...

EU Enlargement Makes Strategic Sense

The Lead StoryAn Interview with British Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Tatham

How do you see the current role of the OHR/EUSR?

-

-

authorized the High Representative to take measures to ensure compliance and to ensure the smooth run-

think the High Representative should have.

It seems lately that the OHR’s role has been weakening. Are there any major differences in interpretations [of that role] from one High Representative to the other? Does the inter-pretation of this role depend on who the actual High representatives are, or are there some oth-er relevant variables?

the case it would show that the country was simply not

the current situation is, I think it’s undeniable – and you will know this much better than I do – that this country

High Representative and OHR has stepped back a little

doesn’t seem to me to be a bad thing or an unhealthy development. I think what is important is that, where the

the High Representative continues to do so and that seems to me to be the case.

How do you see the role of the PIC? Could you explain how policy between the key PIC mem-bers is made? How are joint decisions taken?

Ambassadors based in Sarajevo, and then there are

34

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as being partly to provide guidance, advice, steering -

-ternational community to engage together on Bosnia and Herzegovina and consider how we in the inter-national community can best encourage progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

There’s been some academic research on the in-formal group called the Quint. Is it still operating?

--

ies. So, in respect to the EU policy toward Bosnia and -

Council; with respect to the PIC, by the PIC. So, you

and relatively open and transparent. Now, obviously, underpinning those there are always intense diplo-

-

issues. But I don’t see that as sinister or unhealthy and

in Bosnia and Herzegovina, is how you get these very,

understand that relatively soon there’s going to be a visit

-nia and Herzegovina that there is so much in-ternational dialogue occurring? Perhaps certain countries in the international community, such as Russia, have diverging interests? Turkey is an-other example of a country that is engaged on an intense diplomatic level.

-

BiH. And I think the international community has learned that you cannot neglect the Western Balkans and you cannot be complacent about the risks to stability in this

leading international statesmen are so engaged in BiH,

The PIC is a useful mechanism to engage key players in the international community on Bosnia and Herzegovina

35

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and are visiting regularly, that’s an opportunity. It shows -

BiH, which are EU membership and NATO member-ship. There is a very strong international commitment to

Would you care to comment on your understand-ing of the so-called Merkel, or German, initiative on the mediation of Bosnian affairs? How do you see it? What do you think is the main goal of it?

Well, I think it’s as a very positive development. These -

to see a major European country engaging at the very top level. I think it’s very positive that these discussions are happening, partly because the issue on which these

-

But I also think it’s a very good thing that these dis-

months is, it seems to me there’s been a high degree

watch the television news or read the newspapers,

it’s all about who’s met with whom to discuss which

many seats this bloc has, and so on. And what I’m not

is that amidst all that political introversion, they have

Is it your opinion that the German initiative en-joys wide support within the EU?

I think it does. My sense is that the EU is very support-ive; the UK certainly is.

This next question is related to the so-called Eu-ropean clause in the BiH constitution. You know that there are opposing views from the Federa-tion and the RS as to whether or not all decision making should be on the state level or should be left to the entities. Do you think it really matters all that much? Does it hamper BiH’s accession processes in any possible way?

I think one thing is very clear, which is that the EU is

There is a high level of international interest and engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina

36

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and upholding

its EU membership. And that is an important princi-ple that comes with EU membership. Now, I still see

-

-ized to more centralized. So, I think this point that any member state has to be answerable at the state level to the EU is an important principle. But I don’t think that that principle needs to be seen as threatening, or as a threatening principle.

From a popular perspective, the British conserv-ative government’s policy during the 1992-1995

as such, often “pro-Serb”). It didn’t seem to fa-vor the survival of the state of Bosnia, but rather behaved as if the war was just another “humani-tarian disaster,” with no enemies, but with vic-tims on all sides in desperate need of immedi-ate relief efforts. This approach, however, often neglected the true causes of the war and failed to distinguish between the perpetrators and the victims. Since 1995, this attitude has changed, and the UK has become one of the staunchest supporters of BiH’s integrity and sovereignty. How would you explain the shift in British policy toward BiH?

I think I agree that the international community has to

-lomat is that I’ve been told on many occasions in some places that the British government is pro-Serb. I’ve been told on many occasions in other places that the British government is anti-Serb. So it depends very much on

“you know, your British government is pro-Serb” and

When I’ve been in Serbia, I’ve been told that the Brit-ish government is anti-Serb because we were amongst

British government policies toward the Western Bal-

that the British government approach is not pro- or anti- any particular nationality, ethnic group, or religion.

What we are trying to do is help and encourage all the countries in the region to move together down a track toward Euro-Atlantic integration, toward EU and

-

all the countries, all the ethnic groups, all the religious groups that live in the region.

We were wondering about potential British business interests in Bosnia and current invest-

talking about possible discouragement for all foreign investors because of the political situa-tion, but regardless of that, do you see any ar-ticulated business interests?

pharmaceutical products, and British companies are ac--

vice sector, accountants and consultants have a strong presence in BiH, as well as in the pharmaceutical sector; there’s engagement in the mining sector and in IT. I re-

We support EU enlargement

37

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in the same week – I visited a mining company that’s ac-tive in BiH and then an IT company. I thought that was

-tablished industry on the one hand and a very new one

Generally, what do you think is the British opin-ion and position toward EU enlargement, partic-ularly when we talk about the integration of the Western Balkans? Does the government favor a so-called individual approach or would it prefer group accession? How do you see the accession

The UK is a country which has classically always been

Mrs. Thatcher, when she was Prime Minister, I think be-

European cities. It’s an agenda which we are very com-

-

perity because the bigger the single market, the bigger the stage on which the single market virtues are playing

is a commitment that needs to stand. It’s something the EU needs to stick to.

--

concluded all the accession negotiations, that you

you look back at recent history, enlargement has tended, not always, but generally, to happen in groups.

-

pressure can apply, where one country wants to join the EU can think, “Well look, that country is making

But I think that any country aspiring to join the EU, -

tions-based, merit-based approach and you have to meet the conditionality.

There seems to be a kind of an unwritten rule that countries in transition, such as those in

NATO and then they can aspire to EU member-ship. Does that rule still apply?

Well, I wouldn’t call that a rule. I would call it a historical

reason why that has happened. I don’t want to down-

respect to NATO membership; it’s a demanding set

EU membership. In practice, again what recent history

German initiative enjoys our support

38

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-ing that you have to do this long journey and that the

What do you think is more troubling from the British perspective: the constant failures of their efforts in Bosnia or the current situation in Kosovo, in terms of security challenges and complexity?

you can look mathematically and say this one has more points than this one so it sits above or below it. I think that they are both important challenges on which the

-portant thing is not to rank them, but to make sure that

both challenges, and that in respect to both challenges

Recent statements by British Prime Minister David Cameron about the failure of multicul-turalism in the UK have caused lots of reactions and lots of criticism from various liberal intel-lectuals in the UK and throughout Europe. The same goes for similar statements made by An-gela Merkel. Could you please comment on that?

-

speech made a very clear distinction between Islam as

earlier this morning. The point that the British Prime -

-

a multi-ethnic BiH, which is something that we very much support.

It was not an application of multiculturalism as a concept or as a whole; it’s just another perspec-tive because, unfortunately, what’s been happen-ing in Europe and throughout the world after 9/11 has caused some major turmoil in many parts of the world. We’ve seen that the coun-tries that were seen as fortresses of liberalism, like Sweden and The Netherlands, have gradu-ally changed or abandoned their initial positions toward the integration of immigrant communi-ties. It seems like the West has been doing some

challenges arising after 9/11 and the radicaliza-tion of certain groups within and throughout communities in the West.

-

-

terrible terrorist actions. We have a very positive

I’ve engaged with many British charities such as Mus-

Muslims are contributing a lot to Britain at all levels, including politics, sports, and so on. A British Muslim cabinet minister visited BiH last year and attended

So I think that the distinction which is very clear in

an important one.

The distinction between Islam and Islamist extremism is a vital one

39

Edit

oria

l

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Lead

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i ona

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in B

iH

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CRO

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Tur

~alo

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I VE

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dem

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3

The author is a politologist at the University of Vienna and the 2010-2011 Austrian

Marshall Plan Fellow in Washington, DC, at the Center for Transatlantic Relations in the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced

International Studies, John Hopkins University

It is hard to escape the impression that Austria and the EU are simply afraid that any deeper and more critical questioning of the Dayton structure and its application would result in turbulent changes that could, in the end, get beyond their control

Austrian Foreign Policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Lead Story The EU and BH

brought intensive modernization to Bosnia and Herze-govina and took the mighty Monarchy straight into the

are those who, while chit-chatting in this vein, daydream about what would have happened had Bosnia remained

the developed and modern Europe, which has always seen its own antipode in the agrarian and rural Bal-kans. “Balkanism” – which has its roots primarily in the

19th century, and which Maria Todorova has correctly

West toward the region.

Both the “modern, developed, enlightened, and ration-al” West and the “backward, primitive, savage, and ir-rational” Balkans, shaped as such by imagination and stereotyping, were envisaged as ideal constructs which,

1

ty and the EU are partly – maybe even subconsciously

includes Austria.

Austria’s Second Republic, established in 1945, main-tained active politics toward unaligned Yugoslavia. How-

relations between Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but on political relations between the two countries

toward the country.

40

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

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ocus

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f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

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onal

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- w

ithou

t the

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i}

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o vi }:

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ALL

I A N

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ND

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SNIA

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ZE G

O VI

NA

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EW F

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U BL

I KA

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ko C

vrti l

a:N

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RE PU

BLIC

OF

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A TIA

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|an

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a Be

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i}:TH

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AN

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TI CE

OF

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MET

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U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

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ch H

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r:A

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U N

TRY

OF

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PO

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TI A

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Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

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PO LI

TI CS

ORG

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Following are analyses and contemplations on Austrian and EU policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina based on

Austria’s enormous presence in BiH, then analyzing, b)

this, I will also provide, d) contemplations on the gener-

-

AUSTRIA AS A SUPERPOWER IN BIH

-

mission and remains in the country today. Under the ---

trian diplomats have twice been High Representatives

-sues related to the Balkans and to Bosnia and Herze-

and Political

to the Western Balkans and BiH. Further, Albert Rohan

he, together with Martti Ahtisaari, led negotiations on

by its huge economic investment in Bosnia and Herze-govina: Austria is the leading investor in BiH, having in-

absolutely dominates the banking sector in Bosnia and

companies are operating in BiH, and the annual trade

Herzegovina. It is important to note that while Austria’s economic involvement contributes to the development

-

Herzegovina are truly impressive and leave the impres--

together with other EU countries, contributed to tack-

its process toward European integration. A more thor-

-velopments in Bosnia and Herzegovina and on the EU’s policy toward BiH.

AUSTRIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN CRISIS

Dr. Helmut Kramer, has said, Austria is “hinternational”, hinter meaning “behind” in German. Kramer suggests

-2 Indica-

-

Austria’s importance beyond what its physical size al-

in the Middle East (among others, in negotiations with -

New York and Geneva; was a place where leaders met and important OSCE negotiations took place to liber-

-

41

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

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HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

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THE

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F TH

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o vi }:

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n Ba

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DU

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ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

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IA-H

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VI N

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E CR

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BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

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QA

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USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

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OF

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PO

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TI A

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Ant

onio

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nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

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PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

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STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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policy (CFSP), decided to participate in common initia-

Austria’s membership in the EU since 1994 has changed

-

with countries outside the EU. As we saw in initial reac-tions by the EU to revolutionary changes in the Arab

-

very heterogeneous and poorly coordinated. Big EU

those regions about which they know a lot and have obvious (regional) interests.

Since it joined the EU, Austria has been seen as the country with the most pronounced competence in the Balkans, which has resulted in its assignment to leader-ship positions in Bosnia and Herzegovina and on policy toward the Western Balkans within the EU. The con-

-ward Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region cannot be

-ing EU policy toward the Balkans.

-

-

-cy (ADA) will bring to a close all its activities in Bosnia

which sees the Balkans as a region in which the country has special interests.

One general phenomenon and a problem, not only in

--

nal political discourse. As in other European countries, Austria’s domestic political dialogue has been marked

-

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ), which used to be headed by the late Jörg Haider and is now led by Heinz Strache); socioeconomic issues, such as employ-ment and economic competitiveness; and debates on

into Austria. Foreign policy has, in this way, become al--

has never been a domestic election theme. In Austria, only FPÖ leader Heinz Christian Strache has tried to

country. But such blarney and populist adulation did

-tions, Bosnia and Herzegovina and political turmoil in the Balkans are not pressing political priorities.

political parties – the Sozialistische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ) and the conservative Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP).3

-

SPÖ, an ÖVP leader was both vice chancellor and min--

42

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

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O-A

TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

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HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

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|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

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RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

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n Ba

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i:“A

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I CA

N C

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DU

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ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

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GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

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AN

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HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

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r:A

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U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

dem

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3

-

interested in domestic policy and is using his present

Beyond these trends, which support the notion that

not met its interests in Bosnia and Herzegovina through

-ber state, along with the common policies shared at the EU level and standard bilateral relations, also accounts

activities within the UN, OSCE, and non-governmen-tal organizations; and military engagement; to cultural

respect, Austria has been very present and active in BiH. -

circumstances in Bosnia and Herzegovina and truly in-

Bosnia and Herzegovina. While it has participated ac-tively in all processes in the Balkans since the dissolu-

and economic activity, any true emphasis on Balkans -

though it is well known that Austria initiated and played -

garding Croatia. Although it may be hard to accept, it is possible that the monolithic and intransigent ethno-

-

At times when Austria has had the option to activate European policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina – in

-

inside the EU to decisively and proactively enter into a campaign aimed at solving key problems in the Balkans (Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with Kosovo, being the biggest). This was the case during the Austrian presi-

many people in Bosnia and Herzegovina hoped to see more active involvement by Austria as well as the resus-

Western Balkans, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, in a statement similar to the one made more recently at the

-

-eral times, at least declaratively, to work to reactivate

the Balkans. Austria has supported the Greek Initiative 4 -

5 and has

behave the same way when it comes to one key issue

-

-

(meaning ethno-political) structures in Bosnia and Her-zegovina. It is hard to escape the impression that Austria

-plication would result in turbulent changes that could, in

--

ness, and bravery in eliminating obvious discriminatory

- has be-

43

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

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|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

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ND

BO

SNIA

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O VI

NA

:TH

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EW F

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U BL

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a:N

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BLIC

OF

CRO

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|an

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vac:

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NTE

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F TH

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@a

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Pe tr

o vi }:

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ON

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A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

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a do

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o vi }:

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OP-

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SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

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TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

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AL-

QA

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AN

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ch H

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r:A

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OF

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EU countries seem not to understand that maintaining

still even on the EU and global radar (the secondary or

a tumultuous environment in which Europe has set its

materialized.

THE BOOK ON BOSNIA HAS NOT QUITE BEEN CLOSED

policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina? A cacophony

-national community. This policy, though, is nothing more

OSCE and similar multilateral bodies, but in the end – at

– they are rather uncoordinated. It would be naive to believe that the international community is monolithic

Herzegovina since 1995, and especially to this enduring

culminated in the country being without a government

lost the power and will to end the anomaly created in BiH by Dayton. At the same time, EU accession – and Bosnia’s road to it – remains the only operational creed. This is a road with no alternatives, but one which cannot bring Bosnia and Herzegovina to its goal with-

As in Austria, other EU countries are preoccupied with

enlargement is minimal. Nenad Pajic has recently sum-marized the international community and EU policy to-ward Bosnia and Herzegovina this way:

I am not sure there is a single person in the so-called international community who understands the nature

-cient knowledge on regional interactions in the area,

poor knowledge which is concealed behind arrogance toward anything “local”, and which is being encour-

-

jeopardize peace passed, global leaders breathed a

We cannot assert that Austria and its representatives -

vina, or that they have not been actively involved in the

other reason than its eminent economic interests in the

passive political umbrella, which shrinks the diplomatic -

Austria and by the whole EU toward Bosnia and Her-zegovina is the current IC and EU High Representative

-

with is reduced maneuvering capacity and, in the end, nothing on a monopoly management.

We can conclude that in the last two decades there has -

eign policy. As Kramer said, “(Austria is “hinternational”). Engagement by Austria in the Balkans and in Bosnia and Herzegovina is stagnant,

aimed at changing the bleak Bosnian reality. Nerzuk Curak describes Bosnia and Herzegovina as “standing

--

ing still amidst a technocratic-bureaucratic movement -

44

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

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in B

iH

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-ship in the EU is obviously not a priority, and they are standing still as well, while claiming to be dedicated to Europe; just as Europe is, at the moment, standing still as it simulates bureaucratic engagement ostensibly meant to bring Bosnia and Herzegovina closer to Europe.

numerous insurance companies remain at every corner in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Austria will be an advocate

the EU. Questions and dilemmas, however, remain: For -

-

and reactive EU? One thing is certain – continuation

Herzegovina have the potential to seriously jeopardize

years to come.

NOTES:

1 -

ad hoc -tional community.

2 Kramer, Helmut, “Österreich ist hinternational. Zur Stagnation und Krise der österreichischen Aussenpolitik,” I

3 -ternal policy talked about the Austrian political system as a one

strong political parties: the SPÖ, the ÖVP, and the FPÖ.4

-

5 Grabbe, Heather, Gerald Knaus, and Daniel Korski, “Beyond wait-

on Foreign Relations

-

45

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

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The author is Assistant Lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science

at the University of Sarajevo

[The] Franco-British agreement, although optimistically evaluated by the EU Institute for Security Studies as “a new engine for European defense,” represents a double punch to the Union

Regulations with no Face and no Force

The Lead StoryCommon EU Foreign & Security Policy Isn’t So Common

In his book, , Robert Cooper –

movens

the world into pre-modern, modern, and post-mod-ern states. The pre-modern world consists primarily

such as India and China, along with others that oper-

power, and nationalism. And the post-modern world

ritorialized.1

Cooper points to the European Union, which, upon

Europe during the Cold War. In a post-modern system,

and modern worlds, and has to learn to cope with

instruments, it is necessary to project power – shaped by economic, cultural, political, and military strength – outside one’s own territory. In the economic and cultural senses, Europe is generally seen as a giant; in

2

tricht – which set Common Foreign and Security Policy

sponses to crises have been reactive and disjointed, and

political players.

46

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

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NA

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i}:TH

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Ant

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nda:

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Tur

~alo

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5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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hotspots and should resolve them, and the Union should

* * * *

3 meant to be supplemental to -

sive than the European Constitution, thereby harmoniz--

governmental approaches. Communitarians are content

three-pillar structure, making the Union a legal entity that can negotiate international agreements and act as

-tergovernmental approach got concessions in the arena

-sion-making based on consensus was guaranteed – in the

did not gather the strength in Lisbon to establish a supra-

normative improvements have been made which enable member countries to develop increasingly coherent and proactive policies. Innovations introduced by the Lisbon Treaty have created conditions in which the Union can

political player that adds value to its collective model

-

-

because some members lack the capacity to most ap-propriately play that role.4 In order to tackle this issue, the decision was made to also appoint a more perma-

this presidency is to preside over Council sessions, coordinate cooperation between the Commission and

the Council, work to build consensus, and report to the

governments, but does not have a mandate to take on -

mon Foreign and Security Policy.5

Another concern that the Lisbon Treaty addresses is the

-

-

the same time, the new High Representative has a dual

European Commission.

* * * *

could leave the Union at a standstill – the same norma-tive empire dictating standards and conditions to aspirant member countries but without possessing the elements

two relatively unknowns to the newly established posi-

are striving to concentrate their power within the Union.

Herman van Rompuy and the High Representative is

-tion behind her. Then-British Shadow Foreign Secretary

as “a damaging EU deal” made between the governments and analysts

France and Germany. -nent political actors to these positions would likely re-

presidency, the Commission President, and in an internal

47

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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AN

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N H

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5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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politics. Member states recognized that, despite a very

-

-

perception among presiding countries is that they play a

--

das

-

-ther too “presidential” nor merely a session host,8 but he has also not had the opportunity or apparent desire

by his choice during the eurozone crisis to do nothing

a stronger part be played by the European Council in --

tween Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Van Rompuy, averted only because Barroso realized that

-ber states.9

two bodies collaborated on the European development

-

Catherine Ashton has under her jurisdiction the most

-

this way, Ashton controls the political and strategic man--

bles her to shape the decision-making process in every

to actively directing their implementation.

member states and by Barroso, who saw that the Com--

-

the European Commission, and the High Representative -

within European bureaucracy, the Commission attempted -

programs, but the European Parliament suggested instead

and the Commission, which has retained administrative jurisdiction over the Service’s budget.

statements by the High Representative in the Parliament. It establishes the EEAS as an autonomous EU body, inde-

to please the Commission, the Council, and the Parlia-ment, Ashton decided that the EEAS would assist these

-

-

as the Service develops. In an organizational sense, the

the Commission; it is organized according to the geo-

integrated both the Council’s Crisis Management and Planning Directorate and the Commission’s Department

48

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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In F

ocus

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lus o

f W

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OF

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-curity but is not really comparable to these bodies in power or size.

In a compromise with the Commission, Ashton accept-ed that EU delegations which have taken over compe-

-

position on EU aid programs, which could have served

She agreed that the Service participate in decisions but leaves the Commission the last word, additionally com-plicating the decision-making process and diminishing

-ditioning” in strengthening the Union’s approach. In practice, EU delegation leaders, who are subordinate to

the Commission every time they want to make certain means operational to use them as a proverbial carrot.

-

Representative, to be able to use instruments overseen -

largement with its European Neighborhood Policy. As

being too meek toward Commission President Bar-

-

Delegation to the United States. Almeida’s appointment

between member states and the High Representative

serve EU members.

to key EU diplomacy positions, older member states

-

11 These harsh

-trusted to German diplomat Michael Ederer, while the French aimed higher still and landed not only the posi-

India.

Europe” to initiate a process which obliges Ashton to

that it approves both the budget and appointments to

---

Council in order to avoid possible rivalry between the “old” and “new” members in Parliament during impor-

member states – which are trying to maintain the tri-

(Britain, Germany, and France), which speak unanimous-ly only when necessary – is not yet in sight. Due to their short time in operation, it is impossible to analyze the

At some level, the relationship between the Union and

been evident in the current “Arab revolution”. During the crisis in Egypt, Ashton reacted just as she had to

attack against a ship carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza, etc.) – she didn’t really react at all. The High Representa-

-

talked about in their own statements in the preceding days.12 While the High Representative is practicing the

49

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crises, member states are nationalizing the “common”

their own visits to regions in turmoil. This has been seen

William Hague to Egypt13 and the unilateral decision by France to recognize the National Transitional Council in

14

* * * * Member states do not give much leeway to the High Representative or the Union in creating Common

CFSP) either. In this area, the High Representative is,

Committee and the Joint Situation Center (an intelli-

crisis management structures, including the EU Military -

ment and Planning Directorate, Civilian Planning and Conduct Capability (the EU department that plans and conducts all civilian crisis management operations), the

However, she is in no way a traditional commander-in-

-an” to “Common”,15

member states. This is how the CSDP remained vul-nerable to special procedures that allow decision-mak-ing only through consensus, and in this case member

-sarelle Clause, which would have allowed the European

that could, under the right circumstances, bring about

-bolic dimension is introduced in the clause on aid tak-

which compels EU member states to provide aid to

armed attack. Besides this, a clause on solidarity was also introduced, -

disasters or terrorist attacks.

Another innovation aimed at enabling the Union to de-

cooperation is the enhanced cooperation procedure,

Cooperation Protocol to Common Security and De--

-

other countries, especially neutral countries, into par-

-

-

-

while, on the other hand, they can be interpreted as -

oped member states to take part. Considering that en-

that Permanent Structured Cooperation is not likely

-

--

-

50

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-nies that were not based in the client country were chosen;18 -ments were made at the national level and did not

19

---

-

participate only in low-intensity operations that usually

-

--

is relevant to their own national security. Such circum-

least, as a worthy partner to its trans-Atlantic ally, the United States.

Disproportion between investments in research and

-

technologies in the Union, are trending downward.21

41 billion euros, while France and Germany predict a 22

-

Last year, Great Britain and France signed a bilateral -

logistics, and supporting units, as well as the establish--

23 -ogies, they have agreed to joint projects on unmanned

agreement, although optimistically evaluated by the EU -

24 represents a double punch to the Un-ion. First, the UK and France had an ideal opportunity to be pioneers in initiating the Permanent Structured Cooperation Protocol by involving some other power-

these new technologies would be possible within the

Union’s military needs.

Franco-British cooperation above the Common Securi-25 – these two countries

have proven that the normative innovations introduced

long as member states disallow the paper tiger EU CSDP to evolve into a living, breathing entity As a result, the EU will, at least until some new treaty in the

--

which does not evolve into the anticipated supranation-al body. Every attempt by the EU, theoretically stronger

-

broke out, the Union did not have an opinion on how --

America. -

51

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sulted in a German abstention in the Security Council

“all necessary measures”

against civilians ”

-

-ton? The joke goes:

-icy. Ashton says, “You see, Kissinger’s statement that there is no EU because there is no number at which it can be reached makes no sense anymore. You have my number now, and when you dial it, you’ll get the EU!” Clinton returned to the United States and di-

-

-

the European Union, press 28.”28

NOTES:

1 For more, see: Robert Cooper,

2

3 Anthony Gardner Luzzatto and Stuart E. Eizenstat, “New Treaty, -

4 An attempt to overcome this problem was sought through de-

5

EU deal’, says Hague,”

-probable? Yes. Impossible? No,”

-

8 -wicht oder institutionalles Sammelserium,”

9 Daniela Kietz and Nicolai van Ondarza, “Willkommen in der Lissaboner Wirklichkeit”,

relatively small number.11 -

sive’ EU powers”,

12

13

A Shaky Start,”

14 Tobby Vogel, “EU divided over Libya” -

Sarkozy says EU backs Libya aid zones,”

15

Policy (CFSP).

18

Strengthening the EU’s Military Capabilities,” fairs Review

19 -

21 “UK cost-cutting review shrinks military capacity,”

changes,” 111,

22 Ronja Kempin, et al, “Abkehr vom GASP,” 81 (November

23 Ibid.24

-

25 Kempin, p. 3.March

28

--

52

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Civilian crisis management has become a central part of the EU’s Common Security

The EU’s ambitions in

heights, as is shown by the expanding geographical reach, the number of personnel deployed, and the operational complexity. But despite positive developments, challenges remain. In its current form, the EU runs the risk of jeopardising its own credibility as a civilian crisis manager. Capabilities, operational effectiveness, and strategic vision are all lagging behind

By: An Jacobs

EU CIVILIAN CRISIS MANAGEMENT: A CRISIS IN THE MAKING?1

The Lead StoryCSS Analysis in Security Policy

CSDP are impressive on various levels. Institutionally,

--

duct Capability (CPCC) under the Civilian Operations Commander - has basically served as the operational

Besides institutional progress, the EU has also under-taken attempts to develop its civilian capabilities. Initial targets were out-lined in the Civilian Headline Goal

-

civil administration, civil protection, monitoring missions, -

practices.

At the operational level, the EU also seems to have de-

management missions: Seven military operations and

geographical terms, the Western Balkans, the Southern -

ed civilian CSDP missions, covering tasks as diverse as

--

-ing to capabilities, operational outcomes, and strategic vision have not been suitably addressed. Until the EU brings operational aims into line with political stances,

-

53

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ko P

levni

k:D

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ATO

WIN

IN T

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BALK

AN

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k:N

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, DO

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U K

NO

W W

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YO

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\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

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SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

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ROM

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U BL

I KA

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ko C

vrti l

a:N

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CE O

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n Ba

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i:“A

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IN K

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NA T

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ki}:

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re:

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i}:TH

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AN

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nda:

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N H

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O PT

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Tur

~alo

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I VE

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TI CS

ORG

A N

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ME

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Y

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3

THE CIVILIAN CAPABILITY CHALLENGE

pools, and more importantly, that these pools - although -

ably shallow. On several occasions, personnel contri-butions promised by member states at the Council negotiation table have not been met upon actual de-

-

The EU deploys personnel predominantly by second-ment, which means that national government institutions cannot be by-passed. The additional problem is that the

military personnel, whose raison d’être is contributing to international operations, the primary responsibility

budgets and domestic capacity being tightened more than ever, member states have been highly reluctant to

other civilian per-sonnel to distant dangerous places.

mestic shortages are all common problems, particularly

-

--

ternational personnel was on the ground in February

CSDP civilian mission to date with an initial interna-

The Civilian Response Teams (CRTs) are undoubted-

cadre, but will remain little more than a “good idea”

through national ministries. Some member states are

international missions. National training and recruit-

Peace Operations in Berlin, the Swedish National De-

Egmont institute in Brussels have provided basic ge-neric training courses, and indeed, are in the process

CSDP personnel remains acute.

-tional channels. Increasing the contracted personnel

partial solution to the recruitment problem. Not only

-litical implication is that contracting personnel directly on the EU level could lead member states to conclude

-

which their salaries are currently drawn. Although this

secondment is improved, and the contracting process

INADEQUATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT

Enhancing capability numbers and getting people de--

German Chancellor Angela Merkel with a group of Afghan police trainees

54

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

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a Pe

ki}:

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I SIT

TO

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I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

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ch H

eide

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U N

TRY

OF

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DLY

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TI A

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Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

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O PT

E RS

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O SO

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Tur

~alo

:CO

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I VE

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RO G

RE SS

I VE

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PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

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then do in operational theatres. Data on the opera--

what sketchy, but the core conclusion seems to be that

at best.

Obviously, local conditions play a big part in the rela-

with domestic authorities and population should not come as a surprise.This was the case in DR Congo, where local resistance to the EUPOL mission has to

-tation. But also other civilian missions have struggled due to the conditions on the ground. A war-torn coun-

Likewise, EUPOL COPPS in the Palestinian Territories, although designed to cover the West Bank and the

-

-

a legitimate government and parliamentary control

- dependent on local Palestinian ownership - is thus -

lessly “pending” mission. In a similar way, the EU Bor-

the CSDP history books.

many cases, objectives do not seem to be in line with

policing on the ground. Some technical progress has ad-mittedly been made in the EU Police Mission in Bosnia

and politicised policing have been the result, with local actors unable to support new police structures.

Getting coordination right is vital not only with lo-cal actors, but also with other international players in theatre, along with various mission components. In

-ners (most notably the US, the UN, and NATO) was

55

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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-

on the ground.

-sive CSDP missions where both civilian and military instruments have been used. Bosnia serves as a good

-

-

this debate - rethinking where and how the EU sets its

will help to shape political ambitions. The key determi-nant here is where the EU actually has political incen-

civilian activities last; obvious tools are accession and enhanced trade agreements. This implies that long-term

Balkans and Caucasus. However, civilian crisis manage-

up election monitoring, specialist training, and disaster

-ning, which must be viewed in a broader strategic vision

resides: Europe’s weakness is due not merely to its -

ing strategic vision and common ideas as to what such

STRATEGIC VISION

Matching the ends to the means is now just as critical

to achieve real operational outcomes. Until the mem--

-ments at its disposal to provide support to (post-)

-

56

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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age

3

an overall strategic vision, rather than representing an isolated view.

-sources and an ad-hoc “learning-by-doing process”.The EU has been able to muddle through to some degree

as well as in countries in its own backyard, but opera--

EU needs to align its political priorities with matching

actor in international civilian crisis management.

stability in the Balkans, strong disagreements between the EU member states on Kosovo’s independence have severely hindered comprehensive action in the region.

authority to strengthen independent statehood has not

--

to little more than politically symbolic gestures rather -

goals are written, strategic momentum is needed at the political level. CSDP still remains relatively low priority

-

through with convincing capabilities. And even where states are engaged in contributing to EU civilian crisis

addition, EU member states have in some cases shown

-

(realistic) capabilities to a clear strategic outlook. The gap between political ambitions and capabilities can

-

right will, more likely than not, cause more delays and

-cial crises.

CHOICES TO MAKE

Where this leaves the EU on a global level is a bigger -

political ambitions higher on the priority list than the -

ian crisis management. A reserved approach towards

other hand, trying to do too much with too little will

balance between engaging where needed and engaging

strategic decisions are indispensable to push CSDP in

-vilian crisis management.

broader strategic approach, is to increase the EU’s engagement through regional organisations such as

-

while at the same time reducing the capability burden

is, a comprehensive strategic approach has become indispensable.

NOTES:

1

Issues at: www.sta.ethz.ch

57

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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okra

cija

br 1

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a 2

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10:

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age

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The author is the Ambassador of Bosnia and Herzegovina to Jordan

of anger expressed in the Arab street, it seems that something that is neither

shattering remained on the table: the right to revolt, to express opinion, to demand change, and the right to demonstrate and hold the conviction that everything can be different

The Domino Effect

Unrest in the Arab worldArab Unrest is Catching, but will it Compel Change?

and work, I was asked how the Arab world looked to

dle East. (I’d spent the eighties in and around Cairo as .) When

asked to make this comparison, I pointed out what seemed obvious to me: that many things were the same

at me with surprise.

apparent and organized cause. Again, Arabs understand

prised. There is renewed hope, but nothing is as simple

Amid everything that has happened in the world since

have emerged. One could be called the emotional-

the slightly conservative realists and, ultimately, skep-

with somewhat childish sincerity, that “everything has

“with the people”. Those more cautious and even

tality, and global interests which have shaped the real-

would not be in a position to have their power con-

backing by the international community, supporting a

58

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

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The reality in the Middle East is not simple or one-size-

-

-

-

second option increasingly include those who claim

-

justice, truth, human rights, and a world order based on declared principles. The Middle East, too abundant

-

THE EMOTIONALISTS

, and -

an individual decides to stop swallowing all he has be-

whatever the costs. The revolt that has, by then, built

in the Arab world, and that the awareness that some-

motive to continue until the end, whatever the toll.

-torical, and political circumstances which can no longer be swept under the rug.

young Tunisian man, Mohammed Bouazizi – who strug-

-

spreading over almost the entire Arab world. Rami G. Khouri claims that this incident is analogous to that

avalanche in 1955 which reinvented American reality at -

-ated by our own society...” According to Khouri, “that

in the Middle East.”

Living in the Middle East today, it is easy to understand -

could yet run away in unknown directions, one thing is -

vinced now that they can do what they didn’t dare be-

-

more complete. They believe they will decide on their

else in the world.

out that way, and how much disappointment will ensue

and truth, but primarily on vested interests, the consoli-

indisputably something that has reoriented the sensi-

everyone can count on – this dynamic is repeated

-appropriate to speak about the brutal certainty that

indeed be disappointments once it is realized that

streets now will not be rewarded immediately by hap-

on the “right” side in the meantime, maintaining their

59

Edit

oria

l

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Lead

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Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

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iH

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the right place at the right moment.

and want to understand that the ideal society they can -

dreams that everyone talks about with eyes glazed

THE REALISTS

On the other hand are the dynamics discussed by real-ists and pragmatists: What led to the present situation and what can tomorrow really be, objectively speaking?

---

much uncertainty as they attempt to cope with new realities. Something has to give. It is either objectives or the manner in which they are protected that must

one side and relations with the West on the other, but

by world interests is at work in this region is evident

anger due to noticeable double standards in the inter-

so as not to insult anyone, Islam in general remains an

current events in the Arab world have an undeniable internal dimension, but also, maybe even more impor-

as seen here, can no longer cope with changing realities.

truth is that modern history has not paid Arabs appro-

event about which so has been written in the last decades as the Arab world. This reversal was apparent

-

great powers, against their will. It was oil that brought

gold”. The West, however, showed neither the will nor the wisdom to respond to this great subsidy by taking

world which have developed into the present rebellion.

The geostrategic interest created by oil, the need to

-

discovered interests. Democracy, along with human and historical rights in general, were mostly ignored or

-tarian regimes were created and supported in the name

-

DEFINING MOMENTS

In the last century, taking into account all relevant devel-

-gion – two historical turning points have occurred in the region on which there is not much disagreement. A third

--

-

60

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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ocus

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i al i

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YO

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o vi }:

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ALL

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-

-

end, rulers were richly rewarded and protected by re-

and numerous secret services and state security ap-paratuses. According to an interpretation broadly ac-cepted in the Middle East today, the autocratic model

The third Arab crossroads, proclaimed by some as a

The more moderate and cautious point out that the --

tem yet; even still, it may be said that nothing will ever be the same again. And many more euphoric voices, es-

uprisings by Al Jazeera (in Jordan they call Al Jazeera the

Yemen, Jordan, Libya, Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman

--

the reactions which were provoked in other countries,

peoples are the same, but the circumstances and causes -

by demonstrators in Tunisia (autocracy and social

democracy), Jordan (social and political), and Yemen (autocracy, but also separatism in the south and Al Qaeda in the north), then in Algeria (human rights,

Bahrain (tension between the majority and minority), and Libya (totalitarianism, unemployment), it has be-

Arab world are diverse. They have been accumulat-

FUEL FOR THE FIRE

in states which lack the organization and economy to

just 24, and this distribution is socially most vulnerable, although potentially most educated.

-

light speed. In addition, vital resources have proportion-

--

-

East, and Central Asia. This is no coincidence.

been produced over all these decades by autocratic systems which were installed and maintained by power

61

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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In F

ocus

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lus o

f W

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a te r

i al i

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NO

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CRO

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A N

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ME

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A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

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countries convinced that keeping these regimes “sta-

opposition, especially the most liberal voices, in brutal

-

army, police, and secret services were the most power-

permanently-seated presidents or monarchs.

-

-ble standards imposed by decision-making powers in the world. A conviction universal to most citizens in Arab lands is that both the UN and the EU, as well as

so-called that supports stability and security, and a democratic system based on the values and prin-

To some degree, Arabs have been convinced that their

declared world standard. Democratic principles here, -

-

political and election legitimacy is not recognized in in-

as enemies and as a danger to “stability and democracy” in the region, but what is really being protected are the

community. Even many Christians in Lebanon believe that the position that an active Hezbollah in the Middle

military maneuvering by the West against them.

-

and national rights, and not the more “general” rights

rights everywhere else in the world. The Arab media -

-

Egyptian towns, supported “legitimate, democratic and

internationally recognized elections in Egypt, immedi-ately” and emphasized that the US should “support a process which only includes... candidates who have pub-

recognize... the peace agreement with the Jewish State

and criteria, just as they have determined that Israel is a “Jewish” state, whatever we might think about that, and

- in a new light, considering how cur-

realistic the evaluation is that Egypt gains no advantage by undermining the Camp David Accords, it is clear that internal stirrings in the Arab world will change much in Egypt, too. Some new developments already indicate

Iranian military ships through the Suez Canal, to the

“opening” Gaza. For Israelis, these are clear messages -

tached to US geostrategy and their aid.

It is no wonder, then, that Israeli President Shimon Pe-res has urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to

irreversible actions have already been taken. Trust be-

Saeb Erekat, has resigned, as has Abbas’ Government,

-tions ever re-start.

in the occupied territories, strongly contributed to the

-

62

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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t the

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ews

Vlad

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zinov

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LKA

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ko P

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AS THE DUST SETTLES

-

the Middle East will have the political resolve to, at least partially, adapt to new realities in the region, or will con-

so that it can respond to changes in the Arab world?

world could change too...” That is a key to this story as

kept; that change hasn’t happened.

-

The common denominator is a completely new spirit -

that the silence is over and no one will be able to pre-

-

Still, that is not enough.

A new age is coming to Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria,

sphere that includes Islamist organizations and move-

less outside the media. It is noticeable, however, that no -

being paid to the political corner being turned in the Arab world, highlighted by almost all Western analysts

in Jordan think that it is normal, that these organiza-

will deal with this new reality.

So, is all that has happened really “revolution”? Ac--

tonic social movements we have called revolutions – it is not

was initiated by the Arab street is known, there will be elements saying that indeed it was. But that some things

-

and that a new administrative strata has appeared. No country has a new constitution yet, or new election laws, or even a newly-elected leader. The parliament in

swept in by demonstrations than it had given to the

-terim changes made by that same army, are held. Those

-

in the region have the will to change, and their view is

pronouncement regarding the West’s intervention in -

ers are already training “revolutionaries” in the country,

-

--

structured but imposed broadly by the global public: the

against Islamists. Simply put, in Egypt, this was translated -

63

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was that Islam is a threat to democracy! And this raises

brings Islamists to power through generally recognized constitutional mechanisms and principles?

-cent Arab uprisings, and radical Islamization and the social relations in accordance with it were not a dominant con-

Bahrain, etc.), they chose to remain in the background -

-

-ism. It is clear that the Muslim Brotherhood is very

-

in the region. It is also noteworthy that Ahmedine-

-

democracy, human rights, and dignity in the region,

ideals in their own countries can be neither partners

-tions and movements like al-Qaeda.

HOW LOUD IS THE ARAB VOICE

IN THE CROWD?

The Arab world has spontaneously but methodically -

-

dramatic and conspicuously uncompromising resistance

the right to manage their own resources to the right to manage their own government.

-cant nor earth-shattering remained on the table: the

and the right to demonstrate and hold the conviction -

mains to be seen. Still, what everyone here considers

government systems at home, just like there is no tan-gible evidence that the international community which

robbed, disempowered, and humiliated, has changed its

-

outlined. It is touching when a prominent intellectual

-

unrest. Still, it must be repeated that those who are more rational, more sober, and more ready to accept

-

-

the Magna Charta to the French Revolution. In Amer-

who constructed, maintained, and reconstructed the

actively working to create history in the Middle East

64

Edit

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The

Lead

Sto

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Inte

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A N

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CRI

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A KI

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start in the Arab street, but it cannot end there.

The Arab Street Has Made Its Point

Unrest in the Arab world

The author is a Bosnian theologian and publicist

Since recent demonstrations against the ruling oligar-chies in Tunisia and Egypt, along with the now-interna-tional clash in Libya as well as rising unrest in some

turning point. Developments in Egypt and Libya have

ple in those countries silently enduring dictatorships is

will come to rule these countries – that they should not count on establishing their own dictatorships or

willing to accept criticism and which will be responsible to the people in whose interest it is working.

ent perspectives both within these countries and else-

regimes is viewed by rightist and

people in materializing their own interests – thereby

Europe and our region see in these developments a re-

geoisie” and “American imperialism”, while at the same time, radical Islamists have characterized these same

(a tyrant who is usurping Divine law in

ers, as well as why they have gathered in the streets

theories. Few peasants (Arab felahs) or “regular people”

65

Edit

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l

The

Lead

Sto

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Inte

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Cu r

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YO

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\o r

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o vi }:

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ALL

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ME R

I CA

N C

O N

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TI O

N”

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o vi }:

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NA T

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I VE

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A N

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A KI

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CRA C

Y

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and global elites talk about. These people are simply

and protracted unemployment and poverty. They don’t know how to solve these problems and, according to early research, they don’t even know who might know;

-

these societies have made in modern times, although it is hard to predict how long these processes will last,

whether somebody will try to take these revolutions

a role in political processes and are gradually taking their

responsibility, and with it, uncertainty.

--

pectations, have outgrown the ruling elites, who have

on initial reactions in the Arab world, we can see that

are bringing hope to ordinary people, and moreover that they are not ready to draw any sure conclusions

count, and the threats he has aired – personally and via 1 – that the country will be mired

-

the measures numerous other countries in the region -

pening there. They have hurried to undertake measures

dismissed the government and started negotiations

in politics has not been discussed. In Mauritania and

nineteen years.2 But everyone knows this is only the tip -

ing is not a dinar or a dirham more in people’s wallets,

stability, and governments that are accountable to their people. The ruling oligarchies have been talking about

possible and make their military and economic elite rich as well. Today, when they promise to implement

-

opposition that worries numerous analysts, who are -

This is why so many people want revolutions in Arab

because this would show that these societies have the

that democracy does not have to be brought to them

would demonstrate that democracy and security are

repressive Arab rulers, who told their citizens and their

These rulers and their ideologists have reiterated over and over again that even a corrupt government is better

Establishing a democratic society is toilsome and hard work. It has always been that way, in all societies. Arab nations have just begun this process and they can hardly

rules Egypt, Tunisia, or any other Arab country which

-

66

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

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Inte

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i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

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A N

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A KI

STO

CRA C

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given a chance and are obliged to disclose the culture

greater economic growth, increased employment op--

NEW FACES

culturally, economically, and militarily – the Arab Re-

There is still speculation as to who could take on the

3 movement. Those

and , liberal par-ties and , as well as some older parties and some new ones only recently

the previously-banned Muslim Brotherhood.4

-lution to the present situation in Egypt is indeed the Muslim Brotherhood movement (

),5 -tion, considered the best organized political actor in the country and one that has been given more legitimacy by

-

the impression that they wanted to instrumentalize and

-

--

ter regime toppling in other Arab countries where the

Brotherhood’s restraint during demonstrations asserts that the Brotherhood is aware that they are the biggest reason the administrations in Washington, DC and in EU member states chose initially not to openly support

not pressure Hosni Mubarak into stepping down. This,

-erhood or a similar organization – elements that are

which are ready to openly oppose the Israeli occupa--

phasize that the Muslim Brotherhood has shown it is a pragmatic political group that can hardly be perceived as radical, and this is supported by its behavior during

There is another noteworthy opinion in this debate, -

-

Brotherhood’s indecisiveness during protests in Egypt

the organization, even at an ideological level. He claims there are two streams within the movement; a con-

Egyptian society, and a younger, more liberal stream that

action chosen by the Turkish AKP party, i.e. operating

that the present Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is marked --

ous repression, but he, too, does not know whether this -

racy. In the end, he notes that the Brotherhood’s caution

THE ROLE OF THE ARMY

Immediately upon President Mubarak’s resignation, Egypt’s Military Council took over, headed by the Su-preme Constitutional Court, which is to rule the coun-

67

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

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Inte

rna t

i ona

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i ti cs

in B

iH

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-

and suspended the Constitution, but also issued an or-

-ers who lived there in an improvised tent settlement.

– a

commission to propose constitutional changes. The Commission was established to alter certain constitu-

-endum on these alterations, promised by the General to be held within two months.8

obvious that the military plays, and will continue to

Arab and Muslim world. We will witness an identical situation in other Arab countries in which the military plays a key role in sociopolitical developments. In this respect, nothing has really changed in Egypt. This is, in the best case scenario, only the beginning, because the military has always controlled everything in the country.

military establishment.

much hated Egyptian monarchy in a 1952 coup, under

and his , who started an anti-colonial Arab -

ernization in Egypt. Mubarak entered Egyptian politics by advancing in the military hierarchy and climbed all

-dent, was killed by his own soldiers – led by Khalid Islambouli – at a military parade in 1981, Mubarak was

he took over, nothing much changed.9 Mubarak sur-

government were military personnel, and an absolute

has always been very present and played a key role in developments in Egypt; they control trade in various

-cational institutions. Despite all this (or maybe because

At the moment, the military plays a crucial role in the

-

military in the long term. Analysts at the state that the military must “not resort to the Mubarak regime’s constitutional tricks and devices in order to

willingly give up its position and remain an outsider to

in governmental agendas without pressure and support

THE REVOLUTION RUNNETH OVER

will have to be acutely aware that new realities have replaced old ones in those societies, and that they will have to cope appropriately with them. Those new re-

institutions, along with blogger communities and inde-pendent international media, such as Al-Jazeera, have woken up individuals who cannot be ignored anymore.

-

time in elections that were hardly any serious challenge

new political paradigm in which citizens have become

--

dan, Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, and Morocco to the Ivory

-

68

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country, where more and more power belongs to the Shiite majority; in Bahrain, the Shiite majority is protest-ing against domination by the ruling Sunni minority. And

Mubarak to step down was called , or “the

As analysts were guessing which Muslim country might -

in Egypt, almost no one could have guessed that the

incredible endurance in his autocratic rule, sending his

11

--

throwing even the most ingrained dictatorships. At the

on the process in the entire region. The days ahead will

more than they can chew.

NOTES:

1

2 , -

3

4

Brotherhood, Muhammed Bedi, the party will probably be called

-

5 -

ments

them on Al-Jazeera’s together with Slavoje Zizek.

-

-

8

--

9

Nazih N. Ayubi, (Ithaca, NY: Ithaca Press, 1991). On Hosni Mubarak, see pages: 84,

-

11 Momir Turudic, “To the last man, woman and bullet,” , Feb-

69

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Harun Karcic (MA) is a human rights lawyer with ‘’Vaša Prava BIH’’

(Your Rights, Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy, Between Religion and PoliticsCarnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010)

Islam and Politics in the Arab World

Unrest in the Arab worldBook Review

In late 1991, the published an article – “The Free Elections Trap” – which presented the the-sis that a rise to power by Islamists in Muslim countries

secular) regimes. Since then, this thesis has served as one

Arab governments by the West.

on Islamic political thought and on Islamist parties and movements in the Middle East. But, as there is consider-

more recent books on this subject, Between Religion and

Islamist parties than to their ideals and is authored by renowned Middle East political analysts Amr Hamzawy and Nathan J. Brown.

nian model, this book certainly does a lot to deconstruct

their modest results on the political scene.

For each country mentioned in the book (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Kuwait, Yemen, and occupied Palestine), an analy-

ist parties operate, their legislative priorities and activities

position parties, and their gradual metamorphosis toward the mainstream. The book reveals that Islamist parties are pragmatic, dynamic, and nationally oriented; here are just

which are particularly noteworthy.

In Chapter 2, which discusses the Muslim Brotherhood

hood’s rhetoric over time. According to them, the nature

70

Edit

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Lead

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-

started prioritizing issues which carry less religious con-notation and are guided more by general interests – such

Islamist parties in a way that causes them to adjust their -

Jordan, which the authors claim represents the political

“No reconciliation [with Israel], no dollars, no atheism, and no imperialism.” At that time, just like today, support

-gime clashed with Palestinian armed movements based in

-

to the Islamist movement.

Brown and Hamzawy conclude that Islamist movements,

ways. First, Islamist movements hoped they would break -

and opposition movements. Second, Islamist movements

-

in Arab countries. However, one must keep in mind that the authors, both political analysts, have based their work mainly on newspaper and various research articles, and have adhered in that way to a journalistic, not academic,

-

Neo-conservatives in the US fear Islamists’ rise to power after the Arab revolution

71

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The Glossary provides

terms that are not translated into world languages, but are instead used in their original form as they are in Islam

The Islamic Community of Croatia and “cultural training” for peace missions

Religion and SecurityThe Glossary of Islamic terms for the ISAF Mission

The author is a Bosnian theologian and publicist

religious communities with military structures, which

in military units and the standards in NATO member

unknowns to both the military and religious communi-

selves in an unconventional way to religious groups. This

peace missions in countries that are primarily Muslim go

was published. The author is

The that are not translated into world languages, but are

In addition to the terms, the also provides a

tribal, and cultural dimensions, as well as an Islamic cal-

72

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a Pe

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TER

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U TM

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ko A

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i}:TH

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AH

MET

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Ant

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nda:

CRO

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O PT

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O SO

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Tur

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NSE

RVA T

I VE

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RE SS

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TI CS

ORG

A N

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CRI

ME

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A KI

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5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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3

“The --

-

sary

took this

about the , but also about other topics related to

the Euro-Atlantic integration process, with a special em-phasis on Islamic communities in the region and all their particularities.

adapt more easily to environments dominated by Islam.”

--

-

organized a course in Arabic, Dari, and Pashto, together

1

Retired US Marine Colonel George Dallas,

(CAOCL),2 insists that “Marines understand that it is im-portant to create relationships, that stabilization is impor-

--

-

repulsion, but also understanding, awareness that they can do something and help.”3

She also thinks that the progress made in Anbar Province

and working with the local population has reversed condi-

-

peace missions around the world to know the culture,

---

Coordinator of the Islamic Community in Croatia

73

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

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i}

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TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

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ERN

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ko P

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k:D

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AN

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k:N

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YO

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TE RN

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O VI

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a Be

}irev

i}:TH

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AN

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OF

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OF

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~alo

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I VE

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RE SS

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PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

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CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

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3

point out – that it is necessary to develop a culture and

-ciate someone’s religion, culture, customs, and traditions

how one gains acceptance and builds relationship, which

Islam helps Croatian soldiers engaged in peace missions in -

-diers can be taught by regional Islamic religious communi-

Western Balkans and the brand that is practiced in some

“A Croatian soldier is recognized in the ISAF Peace Mis--

-cently visited Zagreb. They wanted to meet with me per-sonally in order to thank me and point out the importance

-eastern Europe, there are indigenous and more or less organized Islamic communities and religious universities

peace missions in countries in which Islam and Muslim

could be used constructively, shown in the best way by

--

this or similar social engagement, which goes beyond the

-

-,

army. “I always point out that our obligation is to help

-

man on earth.”

NOTES:

1

2

3 Ward

74

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

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ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

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TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

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ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

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HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

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Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

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NTE

NE G

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NE X

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o vi }:

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U E N

CE O

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SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

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n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

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W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

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I SIT

TO

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E TR

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I NG

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TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

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NDA

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THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

dem

okra

cija

br 1

engf

inal

za

stam

pu:o

snov

a 2

0.4.

2010

10:

12 P

age

3

The author is doctoral candidat at the Political Science Department at the

Central European University in Budapest

Islamic agents and network politics in post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina

Religion and Security

1. INTRODUCTION

zegovina during wartime, while many others set out to

seems to be dependent on global and regional actors

ible as during wartime and the immediate postwar

Muslim countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, are still

ests and activities that give shape to a completely new situation on the ground.

1 is to gain a deeper understanding

It will seek to determine the most active Islamic net-

between them. My working hypothesis is that there is a

75

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

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lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

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O-A

TL

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TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

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NE X

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E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

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I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

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I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

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NDA

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THRO

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OP-

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SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

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IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

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a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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10:

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age

3

-

immediate postwar period, is being replaced with a more

-ties strongly interact with the local Islamic Community,

--

its role in Bosnian Muslims’ lives, as well as the country’s regional and global position.

point. It hence has a wider scope than studies which look

domain, but also those with more mundane identities -

tivities within Islamic values or norms. In a similar vein,

visions, choices and acts aimed at positioning Bosnia and

-

--

which this contestation takes place.

2. BACKGROUND: THE POST-COMMUNIST CONDITION

AND RISE OF ISLAM IN BOSNIA

-mal networks circumventing the state opens up a num-

-

--

nance and power. But, who were those new contestants to the state and its political supremacy?

-

around their cultural identity as the ideological sub-stance, started contesting state authority in determining

--

der the sun. Such a setting was particularly conducive

identities. Various Islamic groups have been especially sa-

-

such as

-

The Bosnian Muslim2 --

tics. Considered by their non-Muslim neighbours as a

-

its present cohesiveness and independence (see Pinson, -

goslavia and Bosnia’s emergence within it (1943-1992)

Muslims had not developed into a distinct and interna-tionally recognized national community. Yet, Bosnia and

Yugoslav republics, and Bosnian Muslims have participat-

76

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

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TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

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NE X

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F TH

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NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

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I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

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UG

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OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

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IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

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U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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okra

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10:

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age

3

-tion. Bosnian Muslims, however, remained recognized as solely a religious community, not a distinct, ethnic one,

--

nic and political identity, with Islam at its centre. Groups

Bosnian Muslims’ ethnic distinctiveness and political de-

the Pan-Islamist Young Muslims group

3. DOMAINS OF CONTESTATION: WHO SPEAKS FOR ISLAM IN BOSNIA?

--

authority and transnational Islamic organizations were

interpretative to administrative domains, but in the end

-

-

The domain of interpretative authority

-plication. Additionally, Article VIII provides that the inter-

-

thought, or

-

religious practice to gender roles, media and education.

Nevertheless, when it comes to interpretative authority, the IC is not as homogeneous as it tends to appear to

-

-ed abroad and do not always share the same ideological

the Bosnian Islamic setup.

The domain of administrative authority

The Islamic Community in Bosnia and Herzegovina is

-tinctively Islamic institutions are under direct rule and

-

Islamic actors and networks in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

online), contests the IC’s authority in administering the

A particularly important administrative domain is related -

clining international aid to Bosnia and Herzegovina, includ-

77

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

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O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

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HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

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NE X

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E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

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INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

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I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

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TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

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THRO

UG

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OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

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IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

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-maining Islamic players in a setting in which they have to

-madrasas.

The administrative contestations within the Islamic sphere in Bosnia also pertain to the job market. Both

educational interchange between Muslim countries, has -

madrasas

-uted to this trend. As a result, there seems to be a cer-

and Herzegovina becomes apparent.3

The domain of representation of Islam

Although Bosnian Muslims, as already noted, belong to , these

recent developments have challenged the view that the -

(mainly Neo ) activists and networks across the country

-

actors in Bosnia that contest the practice and interpre- mainstream attest

to the challenge posed against the IC’s representative

Bosnia and Herzegovina still remains contested (see

representative domain, the issue is seldom as straight-

would lead us to believe.

4. CHANNELING THE INFLUENCE: THE NODES OF ISLAMIC

NETWORKING IN BOSNIA

local Islamic authority tends to use traditional ways and

while alternative Islamic groups and networks rely on

organizations, embassies and cultural centres, education abroad, publications and the cybersphere.

Mosques

--

Although one might assume strong IC control over the communities, this is not always the case. Namely, given

-lamic actors, such as Islamic NGOs, the interpretative au-

Schools

-tutions in the country. Currently, there are more than

-madrasas (Islamic

-greb, Croatia, and one in Novi Pazar, Serbia) two Islamic

4

-

-cated at Islamic universities in the Muslim world where

and educational institutions, not necessarily Islamic in

understanding and agency in the country. Many private schools and institutions (such as various Turkish schools) in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been established by Is-

Non-governmental organizations

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country with a large num-

78

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5 -

among Muslim immigrant populations in the UK. While

NGOs in the country should be added a still-rising num-

in both their religious and secular dimensions, such as (Young Muslims), Novi Horizonti (New

Horizons), (Active Islamic Youth) or women organi-zations such as Nahla, and similar. Given the broad

their contestation may be numerous, just as the grounds

Embassies and cultural centers

-

as embassies and cultural centers in Bosnia and Herzego-

diplomatically active through such institutions ever since. Unlike the wartime years, when they provided military as-

-ous local actors and activities, as well as the organization

-mal and diplomatic character can also constrain their abil-ity to interact with and shape local actors.

Education abroad

in the Islamic world predates recent developments in

Yugoslavia lacked higher educational institutions between

Azhar in Egypt.impact on the local Islamic scene was limited, and they

The wartime and the immediate postwar period brought

-

and madrasas

local employment , thus representing a potential channel

received their education8. The IC, however, has a strategy

employment at its local institutions, such as those provid-

madrasas in the country can be employed.

Publications

-ment and non-government networks pioneered this pro-

9, distributed the Saudi authored

claimed to be distributed), as well as other publications --

tion in Bosnia had a distinct

-

(see

Later developments saw an increase in alternative Is-lamic actors’ publishing activities. Among those, cir-

Said Nursi distributed across the country. However, the

publications, but many other organizations participate actively, notably the Iranian government and its local rep-

translations. The IC’s most prominent publications are the weekly (Renaissance) paper, a journal with

79

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The

Lead

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the longest tradition and the widest circulation in Bosnia (New Teacher),

and the almanac . The Iranian networks publish more academically-oriented journals, aimed at promot-

Cybersphere

In addition to traditional published materials, recent

various Islamic actors. Unlike the print publication do-main, the online sphere is dominated by non-state actors

fatwas

are run by Bosnians, both in the country and abroad.

ba and Bosnjaci.net.

5. THE ISLAMIC SPACE: MAIN NETWORKS AND THEIR INFLUENCE

-testing not only host actors but also other players on the

internal politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it also --

Islamic actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina: the immedi-

-

The Islamic Community of Bosnia and Herzegovina as regional actor

-

actor is not a recent phenomenon. Its development can -

-

to the

socialist Yugoslavia. Indeed, the IC eventually became the

It could be argued that its organizational nature makes

policy outlooks. Namely, the IC in Bosnia likes to think

not only administrative, but also interpretative authority, fatwa authority in

-

-ing countries and diaspora, with power to appoint and

contestations between the Sarajevo-centred IC and the local branches can occur.

As an ethnic institution in a diverse region, where ethnic boundaries do not necessarily overlap with state ones, the IC has developed a natural inclination towards a re-

in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the state’s dependence on the political consensus between opposed ethnic par-

political role.

the new Croatian Constitution and in the challenge to IC’s authority in neighbouring Serbia.

IC in 1993 to its ethnic constituents, the Slavic-speaking

by the Bosnian Riyaset

80

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oria

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Lead

Sto

ry

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patc

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Inte

rna t

i ona

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Serbia and Montenegro, and the Sarajevo-based IC has

area, but also beyond, including Serbia proper. However,

-

in Serbia, including Albanians, Turks and most importantly, Slavic-speaking Bosniaks. The Riyaset responded angrily

--

and the

nia and Herzegovina in Serbia11.

In addition to the opposition to what they saw as the Riyaset

-Riyaset

high-level meetings with Serbia’s political leaders. Simi-

-

The IC in Bosnia and Herzegovina is also active at the regional and global levels. The European level seems to

Fatwa and Research, indicating his commitment to Euro-

which

-ration has received some criticism, its networking and

-

European decision-makers consider him a good repre-

position Bosnia and Herzegovina on the regional and geopolitical world map. More importantly, this provides

-

Bosnian Muslim diaspora in the world. This predomi-nantly pertains to the diaspora in Europe and the US, since relations with emigrant Bosnian Muslims in Turkey

Turkey.12 -tutions in North America and many European countries,

Bosnian Muslims living in the Europe, however, are seen

Kobilica, the Bosnian imam leading cil, these groups are rarely involved in European Islamic

(jihadi

Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992 and 1995, and

Muslim

Bosnian citizenship and remained in the country. In the

-

others migrated to European countries. Today, no more are recorded as resid-

-

established in European mainstream media, and perhaps

-

81

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oria

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Lead

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ry

Dis

patc

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Inte

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tradition, remained relative-

even though they may receive occasional state grants and donations, such as the and similar

-

ment, which was traditionally close to Belgrade, and thus more likely to support the old ally, or at least stay inac-

-

--

were joined by local Muslims, who phi-

years, but others remained active, like and New Horizons

notably Saudi Arabia and its

-leged links to international terrorism, Saudis withdrew

these organizations, like

--

posed to them, even though its interpretative and admin-

-son behind the IC’s mild response to its potential rivals is

13. The High Saudi -

constructing several new ones, including the massive

-

networks. Religious literature donated by the Saudi views, while

-

-prochement between occurred, resulting in a more moderate outlook on the

actors. In the media, these actors are rep-resented through magazines such as 14 and Novi Hori

zonti15 and online portals such as IslamBosna.ba.

Iranian networks

Unlike Arab and , Iranian networks in Bosnia and

embassy. Their activities began during the wartime, when

-

aided in the country’s reconstruction. Iran’s approach to Bosnia and Herzegovina during the war helped in win-

-

missionary domains. The Iranian Cultural Center was

-

courses.

two are especially important. The ,

The Institute

an academic journal edited by local scholars

is the , an organization -

ies and eastern philosophy. It translates and publishes books by Iranian authors and organizes public events and

Bosnia are very strong.

82

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oria

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The

Lead

Sto

ry

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patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

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re nt

affa

irs

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ocus

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lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

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- w

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t the

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i}

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OF

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ko P

levni

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-rajevo who have come to promote Iran’s cultural values

and edit publications by Iranian NGOs in Bosnia, and are

such local supporters who seem to advocate an autoch--

-

only in limited media outlets, however, the overall impact

Turkish networks and their impact

Although the Turkish state has been active in war and -

Turkish presence in today’s Bosnia is represented by non-

), has only limited impact in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the AKP electoral victo-

the picture, aiming to capitalise upon the welcoming at-

Islamic synthesis’ that has displaced secular nationalism

-ential Turkish non-state actor in the Western Balkans,

They have been active in Bosnia and Herzegovina since -

lished, the 18 The Bosnia

-al institutions, including a university, three colleges and three primary schools throughout the country. Primary

as international educational institutions. Unlike the pri-

the 19 are Turkish, with less than 15 per cent being local Bosnian students. The large

middle and upper middle class. -

-ricula to the overall appearance, is secular, there are a

hizmet -

movements and networks dedicated to the service to “Allah and humanity”, such as and

-gion and science in service to God seems to be especial-

cent) wear entire organizational system.

Bosnia is organized around the which runs the

21,

-nessmen and Bosnian intellectuals close to the

and -

-

Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdo an.

The Turkish state has recently become an active partici-

change brought by Ahmet Davuto lu’s appointment as

83

Edit

oria

l

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shared heritage in the Balkans under Turkish regional

this act drew Bosnia and Herzegovina back into Turkey’s

some practical success in mediating relations between countries in the Western Balkans, particularly between

-

-eral level spearheaded by the Turkish Foreign Minister and the ruling AKP administration. To Davuto lu’s credit

to converge on several strategic points which might

-age, Ottoman past and shared emotions with the lo-

--

in social and economic terms, through educational,

necessarily always intention), bring Bosnia and Herze-govina closer to Europe. Thirdly, and most interestingly, the way both actors approach Bosnia and Herzegovina

- in the country

is very weak. Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only Balkan -

the Bosnian Islamic Community, which appears to be

the IC in Bosnia and the potential competition between the Bosnian state-independent IC and the Turkish re-

-

tradition that unites Bosnian and Turkish Islamic mainstream tra-

local Islamic outlook.

harmony between various Turkish actors in Bosnia

-key’s internal political and religious landscape as well

institutional cooperation between actors within the

institutional cooperation between the and the ,

22 Clearly, Bosnia and Herzegovina, among other things, represents an

--wearing stu-

dents, who are not allowed onto University campuses in Turkey. The mirror to Turkish internal dynamics and

events around Israel’s raid on Turkish humanitarian ships heading to Gaza, in which Sarajevo, similar to Is-tanbul’s

23

Other Islamic networks

Arab networks, there are smaller actors who take Islam

the 24, a humani-tarian organization with a local branch in Bosnia whose representative was on board at the Mavi Marmara at the

84

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

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ry

Dis

patc

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ocus

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i al i

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k:D

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WIN

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AN

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k:N

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U K

NO

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HAT

YO

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a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

TE RN

ALL

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CE A

ND

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SNIA

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O VI

NA

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EW F

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Vla t

ko C

vrti l

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OF

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Among other actors, two types are particularly impor- circles, organized in loose

groups around charismatic leaders, are relevant to the

They provide necessary links between religious and

higher or upper-middle class with strong links to the

state institutions.

the (IIUM) has many members in Bosnia and Herzegovina who are high-

(BBI)25, an Islamic-capital bank that has oper--

dividuals are organized around the , which coordi-

-al events. The group’s links to Turkish and other Islamic

-lu or have connections with

, was appointed to serve

Moreover, this group’s was the lu’s Sa-

6. CONCLUSION: RE-NEGOTIATING FOREIGN POLICY IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA AND THE

TURKISH FACTOR

Islamic actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina is important

-

ans, Bosnia still appears to be seen as linked to potential Islamic terrorist organizations.

based activities and projects undertaken by Turkish NGOs and businessmen in the country could contrib-ute to a new symbolic constellation and build a new vi-

immediate neighbourhood. This is likely, especially given Turkish actors’ comparative success in building networks throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina and throughout the Balkans that have replaced and surpassed the activi-

-

political development and EU integration will depend on regional reconciliation and cooperation in the Western

mediating regional cleavages and providing partnership

interplay between Turkish networks in Bosnia, local in-stitutions and other actors on the ground, especially in

Secondly, the interaction between Islamic actors in Bos-nia can contribute to the debate on the most sensible

both in the EU and beyond. The Bosnian ty

--

-

law and similar issues, and the Turkish state-related Is-lamic community, Bosnian IC is an independent political

-

85

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

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ocus

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onal

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ko C

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TRY

OF

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nda:

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A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

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O SO

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Tur

~alo

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NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

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PO LI

TI CS

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A N

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CRI

ME

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A KI

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der Austrian-Hungarian sovereignty, Yugoslav dominance,

onto Europe is destined to meet immense challenges.

-ing place, as the case with Serbia’s new Islamic Commu-

Sarajevo indicates the distinct ethnic and political role as-sumed by Bosnian Islamic leadership. This role is also in-

-ereign, and the other dependent and state-related. In the

-

Even the relations between the Islamic Community and -

and Turkish non-state actors and networks might pose a

alliances that cross institutional boundaries and involve both state and non-state actors in promoting a common

similar relations elsewhere, but also providing links and

dominating the initial postwar years in Bosnia and Her-zegovina has now dramatically changed. The missionary

Bosnia is long gone. New interactions and activities are

networks no longer concerned with the basic survival -

---

ing wider trends in international politics. Two key players are likely to dominate the time to come: the local Islamic

-plomacy. Depending on the global and regional political

-nia and its place in Europe.

NOTES:

1 This paper i

broader ver--

the project available at: www.balkanmuslims.com.2 -

nian Muslim’ are treated with a slight distinction in this paper, with

-

3

and kindergartens in Bosnia and Herzegovina.4

5

-

8

and even political bridges between two countries. Such bridging

9 Such is the

11

12 -

13 According to some estimates, Saudi Arabia’s contribution to the re-

14

15

18

19

-sity level education.

21

22

-versities. To the author’s knowledge, Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) is the other case.

23

24

25

See more

86

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

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lus o

f W

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a te r

i al i

n Bi

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i}

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ko P

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k:D

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NO

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NA

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ko C

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ON

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n Ba

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i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

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O SO

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a do

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o vi }:

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ki}:

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TER

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re:

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VI N

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U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

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a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

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U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

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MEN

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E TW

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U N

TRY

OF

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DLY

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TI A

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Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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br 1

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a 2

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3

The author is Project Coordinator for Gender and Security at the

Geneva Center for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces

…not only do women possess valuable and relevant skill sets, in certain contexts their inclusion is an operational imperative. In peace and stability operations, notably in Iraq and Afghanistan,

substantially to widening the net of intelligence gathering, performing the cordon and search of women, and assisting in the aftermath of sexual violence

By: Kathrin Quesada

Are we getting it right?

New Security IssuesImplementing the United Nations Security Council Resolutions on women, peace, and security in Western Balkans security sector reform

Council Resolutions (UNSCR) on women, peace, and 1 has demonstrated

actors in the Security Council to vigorously address

particularly crucial undertaking.

While many countries in the EU still struggle to meet their commitments with regard to these resolutions, a

gion to adopt an action plan to implement UNSCR 1325 – a landmark instrument to support the contributions

gion’s security sector institutions and processes?

girls and promote women’s participation.2 They empha-

3 When

IT’S ABOUT COMMUNITY

Ensuring local ownership, and civil society involvement

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necessary, it must be local actors who design, manage, and implement such initiatives. Women’s civil society

key local security actors and their participation can en-sure local ownership.4

-

-zations worked in close partnership with government

-

representatives that worked on the project were drawn -

tal organizations, academia, and journalism.5 UNSCR 1325 was also strongly promoted by Women in Black,

with other local civil society organizations.

involvement is in Bijeljina, in Bosnia and Herzegovina,

their concerns at a local women’s center. In planning the

-

community were able to attend. These meetings enable

them to account, and have become so dynamic that poli-

acknowledging that women are key actors in community decision-making processes.

THE CHALLENGE OF ACCOUNTABILITY

-

remains a challenge. Many countries that have adopted -

low through on commitments made by the various gov-ernment bodies involved. In addition, the women, peace, and security resolutions do not mandate new account-

accountability mechanisms remains mostly a national government obligation. Entities that monitor compliance with human rights and other legal obligations – human rights commissioners, ombudspersons, parliamentary

In Serbia, a needs assessment on gender and security -

-

security services, rather than on pro-actively monitoring Hu-

-

and gender, including with the OSCE, UNDP, UNICEF,

-

limited attention has been devoted to UNSCR 1325.8

88

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WOMEN WEAR PANTS, TOO!

It is essential that space is created within the security -

-

genders. Despite some achievements in this realm, ac-tive contribution to and participation in regional secu-

women only recently, and their integration is not always

--9

Yet, not only do women possess valuable and relevant -

tional imperative. In peace and stability operations, no-

-

-

to senior management positions and operational posts,

-

--

litical support and buy-in by both women and men, the

UNSCR 1325, increased data gathering and research,

between security actors and women’s representatives.

LEVERAGING SUPPORT

about heightened interest by high level politicians to

on women, peace, and security. In the Western Balkans region, there is particular momentum, with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia having just adopted action

Participation by policy makers throughout the year in a -

is indispensable, long-term participation by women in the security sector necessitates operationalization and translation into concrete and tailored initiatives to sus-tainably strengthen their role. Women and men bring

implementation are still seen as a women’s issue only.

IMPLEMENTATION MUST BE SYSTEMATIC AND LONG TERM

While there have been numerous initiatives on UN-

-essary to empower women in the security sector and strengthen their participation in the long run. This can only happen with comprehensive initiatives that go be-

together in a more cohesive way.

a very positive development against this backdrop. In Serbia, the Military Academy has been open to

however, need to be systematically institutionalized -

The needs assessment on gender and security sector

code and pay, at least in theory. In practice, however, there are cases in which internal regulations prevent

-ulations stipulate that a candidate must be “married

serving abroad.11

In Kosovo, it can be noted that both the police and the correctional services have taken concrete measures to

-

89

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-

12

MEASURING THE OBVIOUS

-itized in security sector institutions and processes to

monitor progress against is an important tool in the

and security in the long run.

Ensuring that the initiatives to implement these reso--

-

evenly. This is hardly surprising given that the mainte--

with gender statistics within the Government’s Statis-

-ed statistics.

But other actors are also summoned to engage in data collection and research, notably civil society organiza-tions. They can play a key role in making those voic-

-

on the basic instruments related to women, security, transitional justice, and reproductive rights. One study, in which 143 women were interviewed, demonstrated

-SCR 1325. On the other hand, they were very aware

highlighted that violence against women continues to 13

LET’S TALK!

-ordination between women’s organizations on the one hand, and security institutions on the other. While civil society organizations in Serbia have become important actors in the security sector over the past two dec-ades, they have only been acknowledged as such since

14

Inclusion of women is an operational imperative

Photo by Third U.s. Army

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In Serbia, security institutions seem most open to co-operation with service-oriented civil society organiza-tions that work with women victims, and to a lesser

think tanks. They are least inclined to cooperate with

and marginalized groups. Most commonly, alliances be-tween security sector institutions and civil society re-

to gender-based violence. But civil society organizations rarely play a decisive role when it comes to policy dis-cussions and decisions.

Initiatives like the needs assessments on gender and -

--

nectivity between gender and security, and to highlight

gender, and security institutions have established regu-lar and close communication and collaboration.15

--

ber organizations that represent all ethnic groups and various communities throughout Kosovo. Network member organizations liaise regularly with and lobby

the resolutions on women, peace, and security. Female

-

KFOR troops to discuss how and why UNSCR 1325 is important to their mission.

CONCLUSION

-tions in the long term. Despite increasing acknowledge-ment that women’s contribution to peace and security is

--

support on the highest levels. But this needs to translate --

tives to implement the resolutions must be locally driven and inclusive in nature, involving civil society and ensuring strong support by both women and men. In the long run,

with a single step, we have come a long way already.

NOTES:

1

2 Megan Bastick, Practice Note 13, “Implementing the Women, en

Eds. Megan Bastick and Kris-

p. 1.3 Ibid, p. 4.4 ender and

Eds. Megan Bastick and Kristin Val-

5

Megan Bastick and Daniel de Torres. “Implementing the Women,

Eds. Megan Bastick and Kris-

8 Kosova Women’s Network, (Second Edition),

9

Eds. Megan Bastick and Kristin Valasek, p. 8.11

12 Kosova Women’s Network, , p. 53

13

14 , p. 55.15

.Kosova Women’s Network,

, pp. 42-44.

91

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MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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a 2

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10:

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3

Maja Dimc is as an IT analyst at the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Slovenia.

Bojan Dobovšek is an Assistant Professor in Criminology and Criminal Investigation, and

a Vice Dean in the Faculty of Criminal Justice, at the University of Maribor in Slovenia.

Cybercrime is a truly international phenomenon – its worldwide reach means that it can affect numerous

the same time

By: Maja Dimc Bojan Dobovšek

A Study of New Security Challenges

New Security IssuesCybercrime as a Consequence of the Information Society

Contemporary society is marked by rapidly grow-ing knowledge bases so vast that we cannot possibly

billion users.1 With this increase in users, services avail-

ment, to communications and networking. Still, every

and a change in the way we perceive privacy. Criminal organizations and individuals have adapted their tradi-

provided by the internet and have, additionally, devel-2

population now readily adopts new services provided by the internet, such as easy downloading, publishing,

be pointed out that there are three main interests related to this topic: public interest, private interest,

invisible and resides in the digital realm.3 Furthermore,

tempting even to “average” individuals.

Cybercrime is thus the

92

Edit

oria

l

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ALL

I A N

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SNIA

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MEN

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OF

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CRO

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Tur

~alo

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NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

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PO LI

TI CS

ORG

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CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

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3

perceived by the general public as well as by members

-

-ed online. Furthermore, the research displayed a con-

cybercrime among both the general public and mem-

-islation pertinent to cybercrime. Based on the results

awareness and understanding among the general pub-

CYBERSPACE AND THE DEFINITION OF CYBERCRIME

Cyberspace has been called the “place between places” – a virtual space in which individuals communicate and operate. The term was coined in 1984 by William Gib-

-less “space” has been conceptualized since the beginning

-

The global public has a new space in which they can -

relationships. Its virtual nature makes it a truly inter-national environment, spanning countries and cultures.

may be positive, such as new relationships or even mar-riage, or negative, such as harassment, abuse, or stalking.4

of Cybercrime

-

--

computing and communications technologies or involves -

5 -

-

--

zations precisely due to its impersonal nature. Addi-

meaning such criminal activities can be carried out in

time, thus making the perpetrator(s) almost impossible

-

--

tries and their governments. This makes cybercrime the ultimate transnational crime, since cyberspace has nei-

TYPES OF CYBERCRIME

same time, an upgrade or improvement to commission

-

all these organizations are enhanced by technology.

Cybercrime is thus a phenomenon that casts a very -

computer as incidental to a crime, and crimes associ- In this model,

by the general public is that in which a victim’s com-

93

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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ocus

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f W

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a te r

i al i

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ithou

t the

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ews

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TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

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EST

ERN

BA

LKA

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Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

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Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

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I SIT

TO

TH

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TER

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OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

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AN

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U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

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TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

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Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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cija

br 1

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a 2

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10:

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3

-

computer system or database, and illegal data altera-tion. Particularly widespread are cases where a perpe-

-

target. Such realities, along with the increasing competi-

-

crime, namely to gain some other criminal objective.8

-

9 These crimes include money laun--

raphy, and criminal enterprise (criminal organizations use computers to track their activities, i.e. prostitution,

-

-

-

Intellectual property rights are thus becoming increas-

-

insight into the phenomenon. Furthermore, prevention

by the general public will be crucial.

PERCEPTIONS OF CYBERCRIME IN SLOVENIA

--

active approach toward its prevention; we attempted to gain insight into the understanding and perception

interviews. We conducted in-depth interviews with a

-

--

analysis we divided educational level into two ranges – the lower educational level includes interviewees

-cational level includes interviewees who completed an

Understanding and Perceptions of Cybercrime

Understanding where the line between legal and illegal

the general public is able to determine where this line is

is not

In order to determine general misconceptions about

-

-

-sponded that they do not know whether they have or have not committed a cybercrime in the past.

---

94

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

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In F

ocus

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lus o

f W

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a te r

i al i

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t the

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Vlad

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zinov

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E GR

A T

I ON

OF

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k:D

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AN

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k:N

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, DO

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U K

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HAT

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U O

WE?

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|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

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THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

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INFL

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CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

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NTS

IN S

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A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

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a do

Azi n

o vi }:

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W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

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TH

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I NG

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TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

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GN

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CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

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IA-H

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VI N

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BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

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NE

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a Be

}irev

i}:TH

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E O RY

AN

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TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

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MEN

– B

E TW

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AN

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U N

TRY

OF

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DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

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N H

E LI C

O PT

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O SO

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Tur

~alo

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NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

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PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

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ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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cija

br 1

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a 2

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10:

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age

3

ted to committing cybercrime at some point in their

-

-

another.

-

-

-

-cause downloading is socially acceptable. These results imply that content available on the internet is perceived

--

erty in the physical world.

Experience with Cybercrime

-ence with cybercrime, generally related to encounters

Graph 3: Cybercrime Experiences

have had encounters with cybercrime, they have never -

Graph 1: Have you ever committed any form of cybercrime

Graph 2: Have you paid for all installed software other than freeware?

95

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

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HAT

YO

U O

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\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

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RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

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Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

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HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

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NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

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INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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br 1

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3

LEGISLATION, PREVENTION, AND PROSECUTION OF CYBERCRIME

-crime is the Convention on Cybercrime adopted by the

-

-

countries.11 Additional protocols to the Convention

Slovenia signed the Convention as well as the additional

-ing the convention into Slovenian legislation. The major-

-

that deal with cybercrime.

public is acutely

they should contact in the case that they are indeed

-bercrime cases, increasing awareness among both the

the utmost importance.

CONCLUSION

cyberspace arena. Similarly, contemporary criminals are opportunistically adjusting their traditional operations to

--

is a truly international phenomenon – its worldwide reach -

the national and international levels alike. The Conven-

--

-bercrime on either the national or international levels

---

bercrime incidents within businesses and organizations --

it is important to create an environment in which users are positively inclined to report cybercrimes.

-

education provided to the general public regarding the

--

shared on the national and international level so that

cybercrime. Also, national and international awareness campaigns should be undertaken to educate the gen-

-

-sults in the long-term.

96

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

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BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

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U K

NO

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YO

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\o r

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a ti n

o vi }:

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I A N

CE A

ND

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O VI

NA

:TH

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EW F

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Vla t

ko C

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a:N

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OF

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Sr

|an

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MO

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Pe tr

o vi }:

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CE O

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ON

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IN S

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A

Agro

n Ba

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i:“A

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I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

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O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

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STA

NDA

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THRO

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H T

OP-

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SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

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E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

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i}:TH

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AN

D P

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TI CE

OF

AH

MET

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U TO

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Muh

amed

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NOTES:

1

2 Britz, M.T., (New Jersey: Pear-

3 (Ljubljana: Mirovni inštitut,

4 Britz, …, 3-4.5 e, The Elev-

enth United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Crimi-

Robert W. Taylor, et al., (New Jer-

Taylor, iDigital crime....8 Taylor, iDigital crime....9 Taylor, iDigital crime....

Taylor, iDigital crime....11

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United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The urban safety and security of a community

presence or absence, and levels of fear, of crime and violence, along with general perceptions of security, levels of trust in institutions, and the welfare and prosperity of the community

Security as a Service

New Security IssuesThe Role of Local Self-Governance in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Security System

lenges and potential crises primarily depends on the

the responsible authorities that operate within a given community. However, open and transparent coopera-tion with citizens is also essential. A modern approach

proving intersectoral coordination. Such analysis will

nerships within communities.

local authorities and administrations play an important

armed threats rather than classic military aggression.

how municipal authorities and public services can con-

rary civilian security threats. This paper does not ad-

cant improvements in security and risk management, policy development, and crisis management within communities. Descriptive methods and comparison are primarily used to elaborate on this model in the-

98

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sections. This article’s narrative is also supported by -

A DISCOURSE OF URBAN AND NATIONAL SECURITY

and laws regarding national security threats. The most -

-

-tential threats to citizens shapes the discourse about urban and national security priorities.

-tegic importance because it is seen as essential in main-

--

-tional security was developed in the post-WWII United

inter alia, in vibrant economic de-

corps, and well-organized security services. In collective -

--

minimize security risks within a community. However,

-ties directed against the state that would undermine and potentially destroy constitutional order.”1 In the

-

its territory, maintain its global economic cooperation on reasonable terms and protect its natural heritage,

2

-

-

-

3

-ing violence, suicide and natural disaster where action is led by the community.”4 -

-

THE COMMUNITY SAFETY PARTNERSHIP

-nity policing via a strategic document included within

5 and, as such, it was meant to support police agencies in implementation

-eration between police, local authorities, and citizens.

policing that is: local, preventative, targeted, and based in -

tation, has laid the path to security partnerships within

and

solving security-related problems via partnership with local communities.” The document envisions the crea-

--

dressing security issues is conceptually well-designed.

These include that, (I) it is too police-oriented with an

99

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although it is in accordance with police mandates, the

-ral disasters or socio-economic risks), (III) it does not

-

and health services, (IV) that the organizational scheme -

tween “preventative or contact police” and “repressive police,” could lead to animosity between the two police

-press the de lege ferenda

partnerships as a possible successor to this previous

institutions and public services with wide-ranging re-sponsibilities in the protection and rescue, education, local governance, transport, health, sport, economic de-

persons sectors should be included. Methodologically, -

dition to the police. Such a cross-sector approach to

--

in accordance with the administrative and constitutional

-

-vance, rather than reduce, social economic and political

-

8

The new strategic approach should continue to be -

-

authorities, which would lead the implementation and

9 Global

stipulate

--

tors and target groups that are likely to be perpetrators Such steps can greatly improve the security

-ships with a community should be seen as an invest-ment in better policing.”11 In this case, security would

local authorities and administrations to their citizens.

-cellent results within the security management sector in some municipalities in BiH. It is important, how-

-

analysis, security marketing, monitoring and evaluation,

and challenges. These tools can contribute to enhanced

based in methodologically- and empirically-based anal-

-sues should receive priority on a level similar to other

-

-trative bodies and public services and improved rela-tions with citizens. Naturally, statistics measuring the

be measured.

-creasing urban security include the establishment and

-proved capacity to manage security challenges at the

and developing policies. However, in a cross-sectoral

-

plans. Despite these challenges, the answer is simple and

100

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The

Lead

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Inte

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l Po l

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OF

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ko P

levni

k:D

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WIN

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HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

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k:N

A TO

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YO

U K

NO

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HAT

YO

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a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

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ALL

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SNIA

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O VI

NA

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U BL

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SRP

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Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

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BLIC

OF

CRO

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vac:

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a Be

}irev

i}:TH

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AN

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E TW

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U N

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OF

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nda:

CRO

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N H

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O SO

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Tur

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NSE

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I VE

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RE SS

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--

The primary control mechanism, budgeting and imple-

pre-appointed carrier agencies, while the administrative -

within municipal or city administration structures. Ad--

-ties would be budgeted by the implementing agencies

appropriate constitutionally-recognized political levels. The third model, currently used in some Western Eu-

special regional or state administration center to man-age contemporary security risks and threats. As BiH’s administrative apparatus is already too large, that would not be an optimal option in this case.

REAL AND PERCEIVED THREATS

-

-

elaborate on a hypothetical.

The Security Situation Report in Bosnia and Herzego-

-lated to public order and peace. Due to a reduction

killed and injured individuals also dropped.12 On the other hand, research on the global level indicates that

-lar trend has been recorded recently. Is BiH simply not

-

-

and peace. Property crimes, crimes involving injury or death, and economic crimes are not as common, or at least they are reported at a lesser rate. The statistical

cases per day.13

surveys conducted both among the general popula-tion and among certain demographic groups show that

-curity challenges; they say the greatest threats include

--

average citizens. It also shows that many perceived se--

-

IN CONCLUSION

-gency and intersectoral coordination and cooperation with citizens. Furthermore, they would lead to im-

security management and protection. Most importantly, -

It is evident that “civic concerns” regarding security are

security agencies. Inevitably, municipal and city admin-istrative units must also become involved in improving

101

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The

Lead

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ry

Dis

patc

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Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

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affa

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ocus

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f W

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i al i

n Bi

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t the

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Vlad

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ko P

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k:D

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MO

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U TO

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Muh

amed

Jusi}

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nda:

CRO

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N H

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I VE

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3

-

and perceptions among the population. These percep--

suring a comprehensive security approach.

-

the local level, positive results are inevitable.

NOTES:

1

2 Watson, Cynthia Ann. drugo izdanje (ABC-

3 Ballintyne et al.

4

5

8 Izvještaj o humanom razvoju za Bosnu i Hercegovinu.

9 Holtmann, Barbara i Badenhorst, Charmain, “Policing and Com--

--

11

12 -

politiku i planiranje Ministarstva sigurnosti Bosne i Hercegovine) p. 3.13 -

eration Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska („Stanje

Srpskoj“).

102

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

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ocus

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lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

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TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

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EST

ERN

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ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

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WIN

IN T

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BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

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HAT

YO

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a ti n

o vi }:

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ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

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SNIA

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O VI

NA

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Vla t

ko C

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a:N

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OF

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|an

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vac:

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o vi }:

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SSIA

ON

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TER

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ON

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ko A

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re:

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IA-H

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VI N

A –

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E CR

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G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

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a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

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TI CE

OF

AH

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Muh

amed

Jusi}

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MEN

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E TW

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U N

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OF

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I VE

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A N

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CRI

ME

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A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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dem

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cija

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engf

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stam

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a 2

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10:

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age

3

The author is an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Political Science

at the University of Sarajevo

The idea of the European Union is one of breaking with Hobbes’ world of wolves and attempting to assert the Kantian notion of republican peace… But peace as the substance of the Union is in jeopardy when the level of human freedom in the continental European utopia is threatened by xenophobia and racism, and the pressure of the economic crisis appears to be bringing rise to old populist paradigms that are renewing the worst prejudices

The Rise of the Radical Right in Europe

Turning rightPolitical Philosophy Changes Direction

the European Union started discovering its new logos

Does this methodological accounting mean that bring-

out even intending it?

radical right throughout Europe, not only in the West, it is important to point out that very rarely has politi-cal particularization been so inclined to instrumental-

Western Europe. It is this political group that insists on

in history.

the notion that something is a more serious phenomenon

productive. Such negation can lead to another dangerous

103

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

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ocus

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lus o

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a te r

i al i

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onal

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t the

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ews

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i}

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TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

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ERN

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ko P

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k:D

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WIN

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AN

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, DO

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ND

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ko A

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re:

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}irev

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AN

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RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

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GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

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MEN

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OF

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DLY

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Ant

onio

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nda:

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Tur

~alo

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NSE

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I VE

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RO G

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TI CS

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A N

I SED

CRI

ME

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A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

dem

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cija

br 1

engf

inal

za

stam

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a 2

0.4.

2010

10:

12 P

age

3

-

-ized phenomenon, a mere media buzzword without the

-

the “right” is no longer radical but political, as has been

also marked by radical interpretations that have, when brought into the political sphere, resulted in violence.

by demonic turns.

am; . This model counts -

capitalism is a theoretical endgame – insisting that the

-position, because in the end we all share the same goals

-

-

mechanisms, has worked to convince us that the divi-passé -

sensibilities, according to which political actors are at-tracted to a vague political center.

were accepted, political science would lose the subject

the world would remain unsolved, without the critical

utmost importance to understand this binary opposi-

--

-tally marked European history with conservative, elit-

in a positive sense, but which also designed and pro-

-

ended in violence, which is perhaps the most curious

-

--

--

cialist, and communist ideals which played key roles in

but lost into the ether; we no longer have very active and relevant social democratic and socialist parties in Western Europe and it seems that communist parties have already entered oblivion.

-servative, who have no hope in traditional democratic

104

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

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lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

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onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

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ews

Vlad

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zinov

i}

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TL

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INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

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ERN

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ko P

levni

k:D

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WIN

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AN

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]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

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U K

NO

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YO

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\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

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WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

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EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

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vac:

MO

NTE

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o vi }:

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A N

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CRI

ME

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CRA C

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5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

dem

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cija

br 1

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inal

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stam

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a 2

0.4.

2010

10:

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age

3

-bia throughout Europe and stronger parliamentary in-

-sider them relative to Wittgenstein’s assertion, which I

1

-

Darwinist.

-

element as a causal agent, a new political objective – the European Union – has been shaped and developed, the

-

has managed to encourage most to denounce violence, -

-

-

appears to be bringing rise to old populist paradigms that are renewing the worst prejudices. These prejudices are

the national state, is triumphantly making its comeback via ,

the national state as dissent.

The return of sovereignty and the return to sovereignty have theoretical legitimacy as important political science

-

-

by the Soviet Union and communism, perceived as the Em-

along with the bipolar world order it had supported, right-

-

-stance, their job loss, are apt to accuse “those nasty Arabs”

by right-wing populist parties that communicate without subtlety or euphemism about “the Other”.

-ample, transmits political messages, the pattern is clear:

. Any perceived

threat, attracting those citizens which are open (or vul-nerable) to the position that there is an “Us” in relation to the immigrant or guest, who comprise “They”. They do

want to change our society. Via an archetypal presenta-

and which enters our democratic world through the leaky

United Kingdom, Belgium, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and

And that is why there should be true concern, because the -

democracy is their adversary.

The new right does not particularly like democracy, but

that prohibits their prohibition. When an opponent ap-

dirty political messages, unclearly pronounced ambitions,

105

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

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O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

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HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

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HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

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ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

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a Be

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AN

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RE SS

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ORG

A N

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CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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10:

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3

democracy; it does not characterize its enemy as such, but instead treats it euphemistically as its political opponent.

opponent to populist struggles, sits in the legislative chairs

Germany, etc.

In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders was accused but not 2 This is the very im-

3 How can we

already several radical right parties, including the National

this movement has no relevant power as yet to turn the -

In general, the radical or “new” European right wants to see a return to the national state which, in their interpre-

With this attitude, they have appeared in the European -

derestimated.4

democracy to strong but regressive social states, that is, to a social order that does not respect democratic will. 5

European sphere? In Scandinavia, there is concern over the

-

-

democracy cannot be underestimated – countries such as

--

In a syste -

-litical culture and social circles in the manner which, I hope, will not reach historical proportions. Political companions

the Danish People’s Party in Denmark, and the Lega Nord in Italy, a party which has literal ambitions to separate parts

regions take positions that undercut state sovereignty in

(ethnic) nationalism. One should not underestimate the

Europe” – Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Romania – the

Romania, the National Party in Slovakia, and Ataka in Bul-

in which progressive protagonists will have to counter the -

through dangerous radicalizati

-ern European history. It is a political departure, the success

-criminatory practices against the Roma, and Islamophobia,

Still, there is hope the European peace will not succumb -

a Conductor.

106

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

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e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

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zinov

i}

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O-A

TL

A N

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INT

E GR

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I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

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NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

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WIN

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HE

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AN

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k:N

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, DO

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NO

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YO

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TE RN

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NA

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a:N

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NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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3

NOTES:

1 Wittgenstein, Ludwig. (Sarajevo: IP

2 -

-

Nizozem

,

March this year, the Amsterdam County Court decided on continu-

-

3

, Sigurnosne studije u tranziciji (Hu-

4 Radical right parties are present in the current European Parliament

and then added the warning: “It’s complicated because they’re not

everywhere, but there’s been a continuous secular growth election

,” ,

5

Germany, Italy, Portugal, Poland, Hungary, and the Netherlands) -

spondents in each country), the research leader, social pedagogue Andreas Zick, established that an “antidemocratic mentality” –

-

-

immigrants, among which Muslims are especially unpopular, and in -

al salvation. See more details in: Bernd Gäßler

In the research mentioned above, Islamophobia appears as a new constant and it would be wrong to treat it as a marginal phenom-

-pressed towards Jews, but a repulsion against Islam tops all other

107

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

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AN

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HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

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U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

dem

okra

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10:

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3

Ian Kershaw is is a British historian of 20th-century Germany

Is Europe indeed on the road to new racial intolerance that could give succor to the extremist Right and even offer it new, promising prospects?

By: Ian Kershaw

Ghosts of Fascists Past1

Turning right

A PROMINENT British government minister, Baroness

lamophobia has “passed the dinner-table test” in Britain and is seen by many as normal and uncontroversial. She

religious and social commentators have suggested that

imate concerns. They have asked whether strict adher-

were perpetrated by young Muslims who had grown up in the UK, and whose deadly actions were appar-ently and worryingly supported by a minority among the Muslim population.

to Britain, there is little doubt that they could be rep-

some have asked whether Europe is moving toward po-

indeed on the road to new racial intolerance that could

promising prospects?

in Europe when the Iron Curtain came down twenty

108

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

E DA

AN

D T

HE

USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

CO

U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

Content

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okra

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10:

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3

-

rang hollow. By early in the new millennium, Europe

-

-stan. Terrorist outrages in London and Madrid showed

--

--

ingly viewed by governments as less important.

-

poorer migrants seeking work in the wealthier econo-

political strains, with much animus directed at the new-comers. Though the immigrants were actually impor-

-

people, themselves underprivileged and living close to the poverty line, objected strongly to “interlopers” who, they thought (usually incorrectly), were being given un-

Nazi regime to power in Germany. The major European

institutions in order to prevent complete economic meltdown. In so doing, they built up hugely increased

--

Unemployment is set to grow sharply as public services are reduced. Young people are especially badly hit, with

Greece, massive reductions in state spending, imposed -

-

-tion when introduced in 1999, is potentially endan-

-

-low, possibly Belgium also. There are even concerns about Spain. Were that country to need rescuing, the

-

in the German population is palpable. As they see it,

save their badly run economies which inevitably comes

it comes to German popular opinion, the great Euro-

emphasis on national interest.

-lated banking sector, there has been no political earth-

-

the case in the interwar period. There has been no indica-

power. The political establishment throughout Europe has

109

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

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CHI N

GN

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STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

E EN

AL-

QA

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AN

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USA

Ulri

ch H

eide

r:A

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U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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10:

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and the ruled is wide. Most voters, even in countries less Euroskeptic than the United Kingdom, see the EU government in Brussels, and the European Parliament in

--

the European Parliament. Recent constitutional changes in the EU (such as granting the union a legal personality) were initially rejected in plebiscites held in some coun-

-sure was applied to those states to think again.

level, mainstream political parties struggle to retain

-

lead in many countries but can seldom muster major-

But Social Democrats have also seen traditional bases

erode conventional class-party allegiance, and the

--

partners in government, in their own right invariably enjoy only minority support. Young people, especially

-

colors have private advantage rather than public inter-est at heart is widespread. In Britain, a recent scandal

Thus, political volatility has increased. “Political space”

movements have had the chance to occupy the vacuum

-tially small lobby groups have in some instances wid-

--

-

YET, HOWEVER warranted the concern that Europe is

does not seem likely to happen. To say this is not to ig-

in most European countries, or the ways in which anti-

-

movements sizable.

in Austria (incorporating some old and new Nazi sym-

the mainstream Social Democrats and conservative Peo-

partner in Silvio Berlusconi’s government, has mobilized

-ism. In Belgium, the anti-immigration Flemish nationalist

-

-

center-right New Flemish Alliance.

---

110

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

H T

OP-

CLA

SS E

DU

CA TI

ON

Mar

ko A

ttila

Hoa

re:

BO SN

IA-H

E RZE

GO

VI N

A –

TH

E CR

U M

BLI N

G B

A LK

AN

KE Y

STO

NE

Edin

a Be

}irev

i}:TH

E TH

E O RY

AN

D P

RA C

TI CE

OF

AH

MET

DA V

U TO

GLU

Muh

amed

Jusi}

:YE

MEN

– B

E TW

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AL-

QA

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AN

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ch H

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U N

TRY

OF

DE A

DLY

PO

TE N

TI A

L

Ant

onio

Prle

nda:

CRO

A TI A

N H

E LI C

O PT

E RS

IN K

O SO

VO

Sead

Tur

~alo

:CO

NSE

RVA T

I VE

VS. P

RO G

RE SS

I VE

GE O

PO LI

TI CS

ORG

A N

I SED

CRI

ME

IN K

A KI

STO

CRA C

Y

5 6 10 15 20 27 33 38 42 46 50 56 61 65 69 73 75

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Front, assertively nationalist and anti-immigrant with

was the third-largest party in France. Whether it will revive under the new, assertive and media-conscious

In Germany, the National Democratic Party, which

Bundestag (the Federal Parliament) and with only re-

economic downturn and much latent anti-immigration

National Party (BNP), which appeared to have made a

previously. Even in the one inner-London constituency it targeted in an attempt to unseat the Labour candi-

anywhere else in the country).

-

between the Social Democrats and the People’s Party

course, immigrants and ethnic minorities endure misery in many countries as they are subjected to violence or discrimination carried out by right-wing sympathizers, however small a minority these might be as a propor-

-dice and discriminatory objectives remain beyond the

Western Europe, the major political parties at least, --

authoritarian parties.

-port and lacking an obvious convincing political or eco-nomic alternative to the swingeing cuts being imposed

-

part in parliamentary elections, where they run the risk

-tary activity—nasty to be sure, but ensuring that they

that democracy will not be rocked is warranted.

would struggle to survive in heavy storms. The legacy

economic impoverishment hardly constituted a good

social and ideological divisions, the political, economic and military elites—big landholders, industrialists, gen-

-

bloodshed amid huge racial violence, showed the ruling elites (and also the property-owning, status-conscious

were Bolshevism to triumph in their own countries. On

class and the landless poor in the countryside, the pros-

-

111

Edit

oria

l

The

Lead

Sto

ry

Dis

patc

h

Inte

rna t

i ona

l Po l

i ti cs

in B

iH

Cu r

re nt

affa

irs

In F

ocus

Su rp

lus o

f W

ar M

a te r

i al i

n Bi

H

Re gi

onal

Exp

e ri e

nces

- w

ithou

t the

Revi

ews

Vlad

o A

zinov

i}

EU R

O-A

TL

A N

TIC

INT

E GR

A T

I ON

OF

TH

E W

EST

ERN

BA

LKA

NS

Dan

ko P

levni

k:D

ID N

ATO

WIN

IN T

HE

BALK

AN

S?

Ne r

zuk

]u ra

k:N

A TO

, DO

YO

U K

NO

W W

HAT

YO

U O

WE?

\o r

|e L

a ti n

o vi }:

THE

WE S

TE RN

ALL

I A N

CE A

ND

BO

SNIA

-HE R

ZE G

O VI

NA

:TH

E VI

EW F

ROM

RE P

U BL

I KA

SRP

SKA

Vla t

ko C

vrti l

a:N

A TO

AN

D T

HE

RE PU

BLIC

OF

CRO

A TIA

Sr

|an

Ku so

vac:

MO

NTE

NE G

RO -

THE

NE X

T M

E MBE

R O

F TH

E A

LLI A

NCE

@a

rko

Pe tr

o vi }:

THE

INFL

U E N

CE O

F RU

SSIA

ON

EVE

NTS

IN S

E RBI

A

Agro

n Ba

jra m

i:“A

ME R

I CA

N C

O N

NE C

TI O

N”

IN K

O SO

VOVl

a do

Azi n

o vi }:

HO

W D

ID T

I TO

USE

NA T

O

Jasn

a Pe

ki}:

A V

I SIT

TO

TH

E TR

A I N

I NG

CE N

TER

IN B

U TM

IR –

RE A

CHI N

GN

A TO

STA

NDA

RDS

THRO

UG

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masses were open to mobilization by new and danger-ous political parties, backed by large-scale paramilitary

party politics that were unable to bring about stability and prosperity and seemed based on little more than vested interest appealed to increasing numbers. New

who would reestablish order, reassert national pride and restore military strength.

-ern Europe, reactionary military dictatorships backed

-

only in Italy. In Germany, the struggling Weimar democ-

-

no new emphasis here. What is plain, however, is that

an international power struggle between liberal democ-

The recent economic crisis and the political response -

disastrous nationalist, protective economic policies in -

like the European Central Bank, played a major role in -

appear to be over the worst. Political systems (as op-posed to governments) have remained stable, and have

-

-ity toward immigrants, but even here, as governments

problem has become less acute. There is undeniably still some anti-Semitism—though not remotely comparable

a more serious concern. It is doubtless widespread and

striking that it has been politically contained. The major

-

Europe’s current woes and some unpalatable signs that

the eye can see.

THERE ARE two scenarios that could change this rela-tively optimistic assessment and leave Europe reeling

but either is possible.

--

They have survived, relatively unscarred, the immense turmoil that their own mismanagement caused. “Casino”

-

enough to surmount a new crisis? Or will they be swept away? Will the political will be there, as it was last time, to take collective action to rescue banks and, with them,

nation-states, each trying to uphold its national interest

savings are wiped out, the economy implodes, millions

mass anger at the political establishment prompts a seri-

new start—scapegoating ethnic minorities and immi-grant populations on the way.

112

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outrages in European cities perpetrated by Islamic ter-rorists, maybe even using a “dirty” nuclear bomb, creates

toward the entire Muslim population—the overwhelm-

abiding, hardworking citizens. This bleak scenario too

to turn latent antipathy into outright racial aggression

Most likely—and let us all utter a silent prayer at this point—neither scenario will come about. Very probably, Europe will continue to muddle on much as it has done, with the usual ups and downs on the political scene but without any systemic change. Integration will continue to be only partial. Necessity demands cooperation in

-

and domestic politics in nations with so much histori-

-

loses interest in the Continent and directs its energies

right-wing radicalism or mobilized in ways that endan-

structures tightening their security and surveillance sys-

-ploited. The overall picture is not one that elicits great enthusiasm and enormous optimism. Nor, however, is

-

NOTES:1 Published on -

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Edina Becirevic is an Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Criminal

Justice, Criminology, and Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo

Beyond Dayton

In memoriamRichard Holbrooke Remembered

-brooke reread George Orwell’s essay, “Politics and the English Language”. He thought that summarizing

-

the passive tense in memos and policy making not -

cation but does nothing to improve policy either.1

writing incomprehensibly.

World Ahead”, he recommended David Fromkin’s

(Avon,

The European powers at that time (1914-22) be-lieved they could change Moslem Asia in the very

-

-nism, and by the British, who proposed national-ism or dynastic loyalty, in its place….The French government, which in the Middle East did allow

own – championed one set against the others.2

In his review, Holbrooke wrote that, “today, we live

events.” He added that history should be “continu-

past, at their own – and everyone else’s – peril.”3

Derek Chollet called him “a historian at heart” and compared Holbrooke to another historian-diplomat

114

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he deeply admired, George Kennan. “Holbrooke,” he

books that dominate Washington’s bookshelves (he articles’)

and always pushed people to write history; some-thing, he would say, that would last.”4

Richard Holbrooke certainly made his mark on the

peace talks with the North Vietnamese. And his ca-

Vietnam, he was a Peace Corps director in Morocco, , and the US dip-

lomat assigned to East Asia when normal relations

– a decision that made him a wealthy man. In 1994,

Holbrooke hoped to become the US ambassador to

in Germany (1993-1994). As the ambassador there, -5

Holbrooke used his post as Ambassador to Germany

Europe. In his 1995 essay, “America, a European Pow--

he said had “great problems, but also great possibili-ties.”Holbrooke also wrote at that time that, “the central

venerable organization: NATO.”

-

1994, when Ambassador Holbrooke hosted the US

NATO enlargement. While the Pentagon was op-

passages and Holbrooke kept reinserting them,” said Clark. “The outcome was inevitable: Holbrooke won.

the Baltics, and the Balkans.”

Holbrooke’s controversial negotiating style and his “Dayton personality” have been analyzed in depth in numerous articles and books. However, a compara-

-sode in history.

Both write about the United Nations sanctions

While Holbrooke claims to have supported those in

without a

Madeleine Albright, without going into much detail.8 Albright, on the other hand, went to great length in

-manded that sanctions against Belgrade be suspend-

when an agreement was signed. Our position had always been to suspend sanctions only when agree-

-mentation. Holbrooke warned that Milosevic might

strongly that we give in.”9 Albright adds that, on this -

ton. According to Albright, though, Holbrooke was

against Serbia. She wrote, “I was in Chicago when I -

ing sanctions. While diplomacy may be practiced be-

had a most undiplomatic conversation. As Holbrooke predicted, Milosevic then threatened not to come. As

In an obituary she wrote, Christiane Amanpour aptly summed up Holbrooke – the man and the diplomat – in one sentence: “He was not a moralist, not by a long shot; but he was a moral man, and he was genuinely committed to using American persuasion and power to lessen the cruelty in the world.”11

Holbrooke served as a private citizen as a special envoy to Bosnia, Kosovo, and Cyprus. He then joined the government again as the US Ambassador to the UN, a post which was spoiled by a protracted, year-

115

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Peace Prize; but his dynamic biography remains short

Holbrooke was disappointed when the job went to Madeleine Albright. One analyst claimed that “the same abrasiveness and readiness to make enemies

12

Warren Christopher died as well. But Christopher’s death did not spark the many controversial articles

-brooke, Christopher was a behind-the-scenes nego-

the 13 “I

observed some time ago,” he said, “that I was better at listening than at talking.”14

in their character and style, Holbrooke and Christo-pher respected each other and got along well.

-ard Holbrooke supported Hilary Clinton. He was a

only natural. In the end, his loyalty to the Clintons meant he stood by and watched as his candidate and

-neath him again.

claims that Holbrooke’s posi-

--

-matic style was not appreciated. Barry postulates that

post could actually have contributed to the aortic dis-section that killed him. “He was accomplishing noth-ing; he knew it, and he saw the military persuading Obama to edge deeper into what he had come to see as another unwinnable war, like Vietnam.”15

When Holbrooke was Ambassador to Germany in 1993 and 1994, Fritz Stern was his senior adviser. Stern emphasizes that Holbrooke was immediately

-

Holbrooke not taken the initiative in those years. In -

or, Stern speculated about what might have happened

He would have gone on alert as soon as the Aus-trian Archduke was assassinated in Sarajevo on June

-trian ultimatum on Serbia, he would have jumped on

would have told the Serbs: “For God’s sake, accept sotto voce,

the crime at Sarajevo.”

He then would have been on his way to Vienna: “You will destroy your multi-national empire, al-

into war. Don’t do it.” On to Berlin: “You are going to risk your growing strength, your clear ascendan-

Empire? For a Habsburg – your ancient enemy?” On to St. Petersburg: “Have you learned nothing

then would have come to London, thrown his arms around David Lloyd George and said, “David, you

the ”

-

-net, who said: “Nothing is possible without men, but nothing is lasting without institutions.” The current reality in a Dayton-shaped Bosnia and Herzegovina

more deeply in Dayton.

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NOTES:

1 “Remembering Richard Holbrooke,” (December 15,

Holbrooke). 2

Century,” 3

4 -

5

, Holbrooke, Richard, “America, a European Power,”

Gen. Wesley Clark, “Richard Holbrook: The pragmatist,” ,

8 Holbrooke, Richard,9 Albright, Madeleine, (London: Pan

Albright, 11 Amanpour, Christiane, “Holbrooke, Why I mourn,”

12 --

cord,” 13 Quoted in: John O’Callaghan, “Waren Christopher, US negotia-

tor, dies at 85,” 14 Quotet in: John O’Callaghan, “ Waren...”15 Barry, John, “Richard Holbrooke: A Disappointed Man,” ,

Five

).“America, a European Power,” 51.

117

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Dragan Gajin received his Master of Laws (LLM) degree at Duke University and is

currently a doctoral candidate in Law at Central European University

American University of Bosnia and Herzegovina

By: Dragan Gajin

The ICJ on the legality of Kosovo’s Declaration of Independence

OutlooksAn analysis of the legal and political implications

INTRODUCTION

around the world, giving rise to speculation about the

ments.1 This article analyzes arguments made by Serbia

tions.2

and presents the motivation behind Serbia’s appeal to

ion. The argument presented in this paper is that, both

cessionist movement in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska entity.

1.1 WHY SERBIA TURNED TO THE COURT

Serbia’s decision to initiate the Advisory Opinion pro-cess does not seem to have been driven primarily by le-

Opinions is merely to provide guidance to UN organs

vorable to Serbia would not have resulted in any direct

purview over issues the Security Council (the SC) has

the GA cannot make any recommendation on the issue 3 The Court touched

4

118

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This hierarchy served to severely limit Serbia’s options. In the past, the GA has adopted resolutions condemn-

-lution would get a majority in the GA, it is understand-able that Serbia did not pursue this option.

The political motives that led Serbia to turn to the ICJ

--

ing to the Court allowed the government to convey their dedication to keeping this electoral promise. There have been suggestions that Serbia should have started proceed-

-ognized Kosovo. However, since such an approach would

jurisdiction) and political (risk to Serbia’s relations with the international community) perspectives, it was not pursued.

-

until the Court had reached its decision, and even that

5 -

Finally, it is possible that Serbia initiated the Advisory

-tiations over Kosovo’s status would have taken place.

Prime Minister Hashim Thaci visited Washington, DC, where American Vice President Joseph Biden reassured

1.2 FORMULATION OF THE QUESTION

a narrow one, it urged the Court to take into account issues such as whether the declaration led to the crea-

8

as presented to the court was not about whether Ko-sovo achieved statehood or about other legal conse-

9 It could be argued that Serbia should

Kosovo achieved statehood or had a right to secede -

cision was announced, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk -

mulated more precisely without risking an opinion that

Although the Advisory Opinion can hardly be charac-

-tion could have been even more damaging to Serbia’s claim over Kosovo.

In its decision, the Court emphasized its right to de-

11 The

12 Nevertheless, it engaged in an

--

-

to be determined by the GA.13 As we will see below,

adjective “unilateral”. Although this alteration is less

since the word unilateral may be seen to have a nega-

-vorable as a result.

119

Edit

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The

Lead

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2.1 SERBIA’S ARGUMENT

-tional law, and that it violates the international legal regime created by SC Resolution 1244. Both rest on Serbia’s claims related to certain preliminary matters,

-

At the outset, Serbia sought to prove that the Court had authority to give the Advisory Opinion and also

14

Court decided in accordance with Serbia. However,

-ample, in showing that the GA had an interest in the

15 The Court

despite Serbia’s argument that “this case is not about human rights violations, whether committed a decade or two ago or now.”

-cal developments in Kosovo over centuries, the pur-

claim over Kosovo.18 In response, the Court limited its overview to the period that began with the adop-

19 bypassing altogether Serbia’s historical claim over the territory. Addition-ally, the Court’s synopsis can arguably be read as an

, implying that KDI did not come to be overnight, but was rather the

2.1 KDI AND GENERALINTERNATIONAL LAW

-eral international law revolved around the principle

this principle. For this point, Serbia relied mainly on the UN Charter21 and the Helsinki Final Act.22 How-

-

territorial integrity also binds non-State actors – an important distinction, since according to both Serbia’s

were not a State.

-tegrity does indeed bind non-State actors, Serbia relied mostly on SC resolutions concerning the war in the

23 These resolutions primarily con-demn ethnic Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia, but also the

24

-

country’s territorial integrity.25

i.e. to respect Bosnia’s territorial integrity. Finally, in

the SC once again called on all concerned parties to

“any entities unilaterally declared or arrangements im-28

integrity] will not be accepted,” implying by analogy that Kosovo should not be accepted either. This argu-

the resolution to support its own claims to territorial -

bia called upon a resolution that condemned the uni-

As we will see, the Court did not miss an opportunity

In its response, the Court noted that international

as such.29 -

legal order, the Court concluded that the principle ap-plies only to relations between States and hence does

a State. The Court then turned to certain SC reso-31

namely concerning Southern Rhodesia,32 Northern Cyprus,33 and Republika Srpska.34 According to the

they were, or would have been, connected with the

35 The Court concluded

120

Edit

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violate international law.

-stood in two ways. A narrow reading is that the Court

-

Court’s choice could also be interpreted more broadly, -

-

international law seems to incline toward that broad-er interpretation.

2.2 KDI AND THE LEGAL REGIME CRE-ATED BY UNSC RESOLUTION 1244

violates the international legal regime created by SC Resolution 1244, including UNMIK regulations and the

38 Here, again, -

rity, claiming that the structure set out in SC Resolution 1244 preserved Serbia’s territorial integrity and hence precludes KDI. Serbia primarily invoked the three pro-

-39 -

the Rambouillet accords together, Serbia addressed the

and these accords in an attempt show that provisions

-

--

-

Serbia rejected the Rambouillet accords was its claim that Rambouillet could give Kosovo Albanians the right

-thority, as it unilaterally terminates a regime created by the SC.41 Accordingly, this international legal administra-

42 Serbia also argued that -

43 Neither the

SC nor the SR reacted to this alleged challenge to their authority, but Serbia noted that non-action by these or-

44

In its initial Written Statement, Serbia did not address

-

45 According to Serbia, this argument is er-roneous because it was indeed the Kosovo Assembly that adopted the declaration, and irrelevant since SC Resolution 1244 applies to everyone, not just to or-

The Court agreed with Serbia that UNMIK regula-

possess international legal character and are hence relevant in the discussion regarding KDI’s accordance with international law.that SC Resolution 1244 established only an interim

-48 The Court then turned to the

49

Resolution 1244.

According to the Court, in situations where the SC

Yet, the Court noted, in Resolution 1244 the SC remained silent on

51 Further, they argued, SC Resolution 1244 does not preclude

-

interim regime, while the declaration deals with the 52

Constitutional Framework, since it was established to

not act under that purview.53 Additionally, the Court

since otherwise it would have been obligated to annul such an act as .54

121

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2.3 OTHER ARGUMENTS

the Court. One was that Kosovo does not have the right to secession since it has never had such a right under

55 The Court chose not to right to

declare independence, limiting its analysis to whether international law contains a regarding KDI.

be answered without taking into account any system -

that this principle does not authorize non-consensual 58 However, the

Court did not consider it necessary to resolve this

59

Finally, Serbia argued that Kosovo should not be treated as

-] argument

--

and no argument claiming that the Kosovo case is not a precedent can cure this.” This argument by Serbia seems to imply that in the case that KDI is not illegal, Re-

3 ASSESSMENT AND IMPLICATIONS

-

the Court did not proclaim KDI illegal and, moreover, it preemptively declared the potential unilateral seces-

was illegal. This move by the

speculate, to the ulterior motives and long-term inter-

Perhaps Serbia will decide to make rhetorical and sym-

the Court’s decision can be viewed in this light. Still,

internal politics as the Serbian government presents -

guarding Serbia’s economic interests.

Kosovo, it was evident throughout the proceedings

-

-publika Srpska as well. But Serbia’s arguments in this

agreements was securing the territorial integrity and On this point,

sent a clear signal to Bosnian Serbs about the legality

the most part to have understood the message. Follow-ing the Court’s decision, Republika Srpska Prime Minis-

independence would amount to adventurism leading to another Northern Cyprus.

-

-

---

secessionists movements, even those, such as Kosovo, supported by major Western powers like the US, UK,

Opinion, only Kiribati, Tuvalu, Qatar, Guinea-Bissau, and -

22 states are EU members.

-

122

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Council, Russia and China, are adamantly opposed to

reason. China is motivated by its relationship with Tai-

claims; Russia’s opposition is due to its own internal issues in the Northern Caucasus and other regions, as

Though it is conceivable that Russia may tacitly change its stance over time, there does not seem to be even

While major Western powers that support Kosovo have some

China to change its stance given global economic and political realities.

-nia, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus – also remain opposed

-

controlled by Belgrade, complicate matters internally.

Europe and the European Parliament that current mem-

international sponsors. The report – the allegations

court – has cast a heavy burden upon Kosovo’s shoul-ders as it moves along the path toward UN member-

administration in Kosovo, Peter Faith, recognized, the

destined to remain under international administration

countries, that Kosovo could become, as Andrew Mac-

Dowell argued, a “rogue state.” However, this threat might also present an opportunity; certainly, much

-

-

current situation will motivate and accelerate the pro-

NOTES:

1

, General List -

-

Opinion on Kosovo,” -

2

(December

3 -bly, Article 12(1).

4 ICJ, 5

American Ambassador to the UN: “As a practical matter, Koso-

8 , para-

9 ICJ,

11 ICJ, 12 Id., paragraph 51.13 Id., paragraph 52.14 , para-

15 ICJ, -

123

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, para-

18

19 ICJ, , para-

21 -ples, Article 2(4)

22 Helsinki Final Act, Article IV23 ,

-

24 That is to say, Serbia and Montenegro25

Serbia invoked the resolution in its , paragraphs 444-445; in its ment

28

1992).29 ICJ,

31 Id., paragraph 81.32 -

33 Security Council Resolution 541 (November 18, 1983)34

35 ICJ, Id.Id.

38 , para-

39

ICJ,

41 , para-

42

43 Id, paragraph 898.44

45 See written contributions by Kosovo, Albania, Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, United Kingdom, and United States.

, para-

ICJ, paragraph 88.48

49

Id., paragraph 114.51 Id.52 Id.53 Id., paragraph 121.54

55 , para-

ICJ,

58 , para-

59 ICJ, , para-

to state what the truth is, and that is that international law, SC Resolu-tion 1244, and the UN Charter, have been violated” “The big victory

,” B92

--

to be optimistic.” See: “Vuk Jeremic: We are close to the boil-ing point,

, the proposed resolution emphasizes that one-sided se-cession cannot be an acceptable way to resolve territorial issues

, para-

, para-

Dodik, Milorad “We should recall that Northern Cyprus declared independence a long time ago and it has gotten no recognition.

-

--

--

MacDowall, Andrew, “Kosovo: Going Rogue?” view -

124

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President of the Municipal Council Center - Sarajevo

The Cold War ended with the functional loss of one of its supporting ideologies. The present time offers us a new world that faces a dilemma about which path to take now

A New Cold War, a New World Order, or the End of History?

Academic workshop

potentialities in their work. The Cold War was a global political, economic, social, and geopolitical phenomenon

the US and USSR – ended two decades ago with the

cratic contentment, market economies, and privatization

introduce this ideological model in as many countries

mostly related to unstable economic systems which

election cycles in which the people would elect their government. In a relatively short period, a one hundred

and lead to stable political and economic systems capable

ties, they could complete their metamorphosis.

ama’s essay, appeared on the scene,

lectual communities. Fukuyama asserted that mankind

racy – and, as the only remaining post-Cold War global

125

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--

countries to transition to liberal democracy as soon as possible without wasting time deliberating on any

The international academic audience remained divided on whether to accept this bold and provocative idea,

-

review, and possible upgrades to globally accepted po-

and then-US policy.

He

-

heed only to American authors, it is important to note that, on the world political scene, there has been only one active participant deliberating transparently about this possible new world order on both theoretical and practical levels, while other countries have chosen one

are passive observers which are not inclined to partici-

US allies have done).

ARE WE FACING A NEW COLD WAR?

-

-

one hand was capitalism and its market economy, with a liberal-democratic system encouraged by the US, and

festo, and the dominant USSR interpretation.

an introduction to its theoretical description, were ob-served relative to the time. Smith’s ideas that the mar-

-

-tion that there was no need to invest great intellectual

system dominated by competition and aspirations to

Alternatively, as 19th century philosophical thought

improving the economic system, to restructure it so that direct producers could take the leading role in controlling production and economic processes. To-gether with Friedrich Engels, he published

in 1848 (known commonly as

Engels’ and (1848),

-tion means. It is obvious that, when writing

-

and the United Kingdom, whom they considered most

that, they assumed the model would spread to other European countries, such as Germany or France. Con-

-

where, despite desperate working and living conditions, -

London’s working class were not even close to similar

126

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to production, to markets, to the political system, and -

Soviet Socialist Republics in 1922 – was an interpreta-

Ilyich Lenin and Lev Trotsky. Although this interpretation

-tion would eventually deviate to such a degree that it

as interpreted through the Soviet lens (mostly under

the Second World War, two previously allied countries – the US and the USSR – began the race to spread

and diplomatically, and later more openly through vari-

--

eign policies. Their interventionist nature was based in

relations that gathered around two political poles - the US on one end, and the USSR on the other.

central characters. The United States derived its policy

-cluded Rimland,1

Heartland.2 At its start, the USSR engaged in the Cold -

sponding to challenges set by the United States. Over

proactive policy, additionally complicating political pro-cesses during the Cold War era.

Malta Summit on December 3, 1989, when Presidents Mikhail Gorbachev and George H. W. Bush announced that it was over. With that act, hostilities between the

--

cal order present during the Cold War also came to

remained the only geopolitical entity with the charac-

--

nant power with transparent intentions to remain as such on the international political scene. Russia, which

-

-cally dominant as it would have liked. Additionally, other countries, such as China, and then India and Brazil, have developed their military and political power through economic development, and are actively seeking their

becoming polar, as Huntington says, with increased -

-

But, this category also includes North Korea, a per-manent opponent to the US, and Venezuela and Cuba,

-tion to the US.

Indeed, the world order is no longer bipolar; it is be-

are countries that openly oppose the United States on

preconditions on which the Cold War was based – op-

FROM BIPOLARITY TO MULTIPOLARITY

only true political power in the world, meant that other

-

liberal democracy and market economy, enduring pain-

127

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-

proclaimed their independence, while its largest repub-

in the world, where mostly liberal democracies now -

War, new American geopolitical visions emerged and, as

-main the dominant world power. In the period between

the time, due to transition processes in many European countries, including Russia, the US had no need to di-

another political pole. Thus, that period was used in-

George W. Bush, a Republican with rigid neo-conserv-ative positions, the US began a new geopolitical era. As Gerard Toal (Gearoid Ó Tuathail) notes, in the seventies,

3 which was eventually tasked, among other things, with the constant geopolitical deliberation and preparation

team was led by Richard Pipes,4 a Republican hardlin-

-ated broader geopolitical planning regarding strategic positions newly assessed as important by the US Ad-

North Korea was planning a ballistic attack against the

over China, increased caution was a new starting point --

ligence data, Team B observed that some countries had

At the same time, Bush rejected the Kyoto Protocols on climate change and declined to support the estab-

institutions, opening a new geopolitical chapter in mod-

interests and aggressive policy toward some countries and territories in the world, a multipolar dynamic was

the countries with which it had intense political (though -

eral Cold War characteristics, but on the whole grew

US and other countries to which it had articulated its own policy and interests, escalating tensions. The bipo-

course, by Republicans and their representatives. What

-

economy, business environment, employment opportu-nities, healthcare, and education; alternatively, Republi-

the international sphere. That is, Democrats are inclined to turn inward to deal more with America and its pro-

-nious international relations with clear commitments to peace and strong relations with as many countries as possible. Therein, Wilsonists give great importance to strengthening international institutions such as the United Nations Security Council, through which they

by the “other side”. Also, Democrats very seldom show

--

128

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the Republican perspective; intellectuals that align more

on economic issues.

In contrast, Republicans rigorously engage in geopo-

world pursuant to their own goals and interests, and more conservative authors have written many books,

--

ers). Republicans give great importance to geopolitics, which they use every day in political negotiations, and especially when they are trying to provide themselves a

military adventures, political disputes, and the creation

political interest.

-istration led by George W. Bush was the overt aspira-tion to countries that have abundant natural resources, especially oil. The gap between Democrats and Repub-

dynamic. While Democrats see American capacities and natural resources as a way to strengthen American eco-nomic power, Republicans, on the other hand, portray US natural resources as too valuable and indispensable,

-can resources.

FROM MULTIPOLARITY TOWARD A NEW WORLD ORDER

Brzezinski are perhaps most attractive to a broad audi--

larity in his book, It is an order based on cultural

gathered around shared civilization, not ideology; these groups are the post-Cold War parties to tension and

--

ern” civilization which, with its insistence on universal

an approach Huntington calls naive – antagonizes other

not supported by the West. Huntington asserts that, in such a system, states will remain the most power-

These civilizations will spontaneously lead to a reshap-

similar nations will ally to participate in political relations through which new unions will appear. Huntington prag-

--

lar interaction among civilizations. Aren’t the events in

-tington that the Western world, primarily the US, tries

-racy), economy, human rights, and pluralism, in attempts to shape a new world order based on those Western values5 (that is what Fukuyama’s book,

-

is logical that any new world order is adapted to that environmental reality.

Despite admission that the world needs a reshaping

Wilsonism and the need to restructure international

book, , to the theoretical design

the world’s only superpower, and one which will con-tour the relations within that new world order via its political authority. Such an order is undeniably multipo-lar, but with one dominant pole, the US, balanced against many other, smaller poles, which interact with each oth-er as well as with the dominant pole.

world order with one central global government that will rule a world divided into ten cantons. Although

129

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Veiht’s lectures have broad audiences who are obvious-

world in cantons run by one central government, with underground elements and religious authorities in the

reality and no global movements could be interpreted as moving in such a direction.

IN CONCLUSION

-ous signs that multilayered political activities similar to

countries on one side (Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Ven-ezuela) and the United States on the other. There is

economic stability.

-pressed in bilateral political relations that have resulted in icy relations developed between countries because

-

US and the USSR, but one which is already appearing in the relations between several key countries in the

-ing slowly reshaped, as observed by Huntington, on the

--

-

is a spontaneous political movement that has adapted to trends in the world. Fukuyama’s notion that the “end

by Huntington, who claims that the world generates

and new political systems.

-

phenomenon in an appropriate historical moment with new or old participants. Natural resources as a geo-

-

-ers, such as China, India, and Brazil, mean the world is

countries will play in world politics remains to be seen.

take now. Ideologies such as capitalism or communism are replaced by religious ideologies and culture, which has become an ad hoc ideology, and which draws the

-anced world, in which each new power will demand

movements that reshape the world order are inevitable.

enough to predict.

NOTES:

1 , was

“Rimland” in a similar terms but in a substantially new way as

Spykman’s version reads:

2

3 At the outset, Team B served as the ideological antagonist to an-

within the Central Intelligence Agency.4 Ó Tuathail, G. , S. Dalby, and P. Routledge, , 2nd

5 Kissinger, Henry, (New York: Simon & Shuster, 1994)

Brzezinski, Zbigniew,