120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 1 September 2010 Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I Topline...

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September 2010 120 Exchange Street

Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com

Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I

Topline Findings

Prepared for:Maine Today Media

September 2010

Focus Groups Surveys Public Opinion Polling

120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101

Telephone: 207-772-4011 • Fax: 207-772-7027

www.criticalinsights.com

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Report of Findings

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Introduction

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Summary of Method & Approach

• A random, statewide poll of 603 registered likely voters across Maine was conducted as a baseline polling effort in mid-September.

• The survey instrument was developed by Critical Insights, in collaboration with Maine Today Media.

• Interviews were conducted by telephone using a computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system.

• In order to qualify for inclusion in the survey, respondents had to:– Be a registered voter in the State of Maine;– Indicate that they voted in the most recent Presidential election in November 2008; and– Say they were likely to vote in the upcoming election on November 2nd.

• Subsequent analysis and compilation of data was also prepared by Critical Insights.– Results presented in this report are based on statistically weighted data to reflect the gender,

age, and geographic distribution of Maine voters.

Sample Size Data Collection Period

Margin of Error

Length of Interview90% 95%

603 September 13, 2010 ±3.4 ±4.0 8 minutes

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Respondent Profile

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Respondent Gender and Age

Male47%

Female53%

Could you tell me how old you are? %

18 to 24 years old 4%

25 to 34 years old 11





75 years old or over 6

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Family Status

Do you have any children, age 18 or younger, living with you at home?

What is your current marital status? %

Married 70%

Single 14

Divorced 7

Widowed 5

Living as part of a couple 3

Yes

35%

No

65%

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SES: Level of Education & Income

What is the highest grade or year of regular school or college that you have completed? %

High school or less 28%

Post high school, technical 5

Some college 20

College degree 30

Some graduate school 3

Graduate school degree 14

And which one of the following broad groups includes your entire household’s approximate total yearly income before taxes? %

Less than $25,000 13%

$25,000 to just under $50,000 18

$50,000 to just under $75,000 19

$75,000 to just under $100,000 14

$100,000 or more 15

No answer 21

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Political Party and Ideology

In what political party are you registered to vote? %

Democratic 39%

Republican 33

Unenrolled/Independent 21

Green Ind. or other party 3

Thinking about your political leanings, would you say you are… %

Very conservative 17%

Somewhat conservative 26

Moderate 23

Somewhat liberal 20

Very liberal 10

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Cultural/Ethnic Group

Which of the following categories best describes your ethnic background? %

Caucasian/White 48%

Franco American 23

American 6

Other 15

Don’t know 4

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Tenure in Maine

To begin, how long have you lived in Maine? %

Under 6 years 4%

6 to just under 10 years 5

10 to just under 20 years 11

20 years or more 80

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Research Results

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Residents’ Top of Mind Concerns for Maine

Please complete the following sentence by mentioning the first thing that comes to mind: “When I think about the future of Maine, the one thing I am most concerned about is…” *

4

5

5

12

24

30

0 20 40 60 80 100

Young people leavingstate/Lack of opportunity

Health care

Cuts to education

Taxes

Bad economy

Lack of jobs/Unemployment

Percent

* Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

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Residents’ Views on Key Issues Facing the State of Maine

Using a scale from 1 to 10, where a 1 means “not at all concerned” and a 10 means “extremely concerned,” please tell me how concerned you are with each of these issues.

12

13

10

11

10

3

36

32

29

27

28

17

51

60

61

61

80

54

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Protecting environment/natural resources

Property taxes

Cuts to education

Healthcare

Keeping young people from leaving state

Job opportunities

Less Concerned Moderately Concerned More Concerned

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Residents’ Household Financial Situation

Thinking now about your personal circumstances, would you say that the economic security of your household is much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than it was two years ago?

39

50

2215

0

20

40

60

80

100

Much better Somewhatbetter

About the same Somewhatworse

Much worse

Percent NET BETTER

12%

NET WORSE

37%

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Better

12%

About the Same

50%

Worse37%

Don't know1%

Why is that? * %

Better pay/Increase in pay 22%

New job/Promotion/More work 19

Low expenses/Overhead 15

Budget/Savings/Thrifty 12

Job security 12

Good financial situation 10

Retired/On Social Security 5

* Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “much” or “somewhat better” than two years ago (n=69). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

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Better12%

About the Same

50%

Worse37%

Don't know1%

Why is that? * %

Same or similar circumstances 47%

Stable job/Job security 28

Retired/On Social Security 14

Don’t know 7

* Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “about the same” as two years ago (n=303). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

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Better

12%

About the Same50%

Worse

37%

Don't know

1%

Why is that? * %

Unemployed/Lack of jobs 22%

Bad economy/The economy 20

Less money/income 14

Cost of living increases 12

Lost job/Company out of business 10

Tax increases/Property taxes 9

Self employed with less work 6

* Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “much” or “somewhat worse” than two years ago (n=221). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

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Which of the following two political parties – Democrat or Republican – do you feel best serves your interests?

37 37

3

19

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Democrat Republican Both Neither Don't Know

Percent

Residents’ Political Party Preferences

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Residents’ Awareness of Maine Campaigns

I’m interested in how closely you have been following the campaigns of the various candidates for Governor and Congress in Maine. Using a scale of 0 to 5, where a 0 means you haven’t been following this at all and a 5 means that you’ve been following it very closely, tell me how much attention you’ve been paying to this issue.

610

25 24 24

9

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 - Not at all 1 2 3 4 5 - Veryclosely

Percent

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Residents' Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote? Would you vote for…

21

1

4

11

25

38

0 20 40 60 80 100

Don't know

Kevin Scott

Shawn Moody

Eliot Cutler

Libby Mitchell

Paul LePage

Percent

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Residents' Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

Don't know/Refused2%

Definitely69%

Probably29%

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Paul LePage? *

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Paul LePage if voting were held tomorrow (n=230).

What are your reasons for voting for Paul LePage? ** %

Agree with his ideas and views or disagree with other candidates

32%

Because of party 11

Position on taxes 10

Position on jobs & economy 9

Democrats have failed 7

We need a change 6

Fiscally responsible 6

Position on welfare 6

Don’t know 6

** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

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Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

Don't know/Refused2% Definitely

54%

Probably44%

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Libby Mitchell? *

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Libby Mitchell if voting were held tomorrow (n=148).

What are your reasons for voting for Libby Mitchell? ** %

Agree with her ideas and views or disagree with other candidates

44%

Because of party 22

Proven track record/Past experience 16

Best candidate 5

Don’t know 8


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Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race


Definitely25%

Probably74%

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Eliot Cutler? *

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Eliot Cutler if voting were held tomorrow (n=65).

What are your reasons for voting for Eliot Cutler? ** %

Agree with his ideas and views or disagree with other candidates

67%

Position on jobs & the economy 5

We need a change 5

Other 8

Don’t know 5


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Residents’ Leaning in Maine Gubernatorial Race

Yes27%

No

58%

Don't know15%

Who would that be? %

Libby Mitchell 32%

Paul LePage 31

Eliot Cutler 11

Other 13

Don’t know 9

* Asked of residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=126 ).

Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? *

** Percentages should be interpreted with caution due to low number of responses (n=34).

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Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD1

Now turning to the Congressional races, if the election were be held tomorrow, would you vote for… *

* Asked of Congressional District 1 residents only (n=316).

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Definitely70%

Probably30%

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…? *

Definitely75%

Probably25%

Chellie Pingree Dean Scontras

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Chellie Pingree (n=167) or Dean Scontras (n=91) if voting were held tomorrow.

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Residents’ Leaning in Maine Congressional Race: CD1

Yes

13%

No

62%

Don't know25%

* Asked of CD1 residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=55).


Who would that be? ** n=7

Other 7

** Actual numbers are shown rather than percentages due to low number of responses.

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Now turning to the Congressional races, if the election were be held tomorrow, would you vote for… *

* Asked of Congressional District 2 residents only (n=287).


Jason Levesque28%

Michael Michaud48%

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Definitely67%

Probably33%

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…? *

Definitely74%

Probably26%

Michael Michaud Jason Levesque

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Michael Michaud (n=138) or Jason Levesque (n=81) if voting were held tomorrow.

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Residents' Leaning in Maine Congressional Race: CD2

Yes9%

No63%

Don't know

28%

Who would that be? ** n=5

Michael Michaud 3

Jason Levesque 2

* Asked of CD2 residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=56).


** Actual numbers are shown rather than percentages due to low number of responses.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 1 September 2010 Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I Topline...

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