Global Climate Change

Issues, Trends, Outlook

Community Advisory Council

Terry Dressler, Air Pollution Control Officer

December 14, 2005

The Greenhouse Effect

2002 California Greenhouse Gases(493 million metric tons)

HFCs3%

Nitrous Oxide

7%Methane

6%

Carbon Dioxide

84%

2002 California Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources

Carbon DioxideFossil fuel combustion

MethaneFossil fuelsLandfills, agriculture

Nitrous OxideAgriculture, cars

HydrofluorocarbonsRefrigerants, solvents

Transportation — 41%Industrial — 23%Electric Power — 20%Ag & Forestry — 8%Others — 8%

Climate Change Indicators

Average temperature changesEarth’s temperature increased by 1.5ºF during the 20th century10 warmest years of the last century all occurred with the last 15 years2001, 2002 and 2003 were three of the hottest years ever recorded

Rising sea level – 7 inches in California since 1850Shrinking snow pack – Spring runoff decreased by 10%Glacial retreat

Example of Glacial Retreat –Glacier National Park 1911 - 2000

Potential Climate Change ImpactsHealth

Air quality, weather-related mortality, infectious diseasesAgriculture

Crop yields, irrigation demandsForests

Forest composition, geographic range, forest productivityWater resources

Water supply, water quality, competition for water resourcesCoastal areas

Beach erosion, inundation of coast wetlands, costs to protect coastal communities

Species and natural areasLoss of habitat and species

Climate Change Projections forCalifornia – Next 100 Years

Greenhouse gas emissions are anticipated to rise by 32% between 1990 and 2020

Projections for warming suggest a global increase of 2.5ºF - 10.4ºF by 2100, with warming in California even higher

Increased temperatures will result in more ground-level ozone formation

Reduced snow-pack and stream flow in the Sierra Nevada will affect water supplies

U.S. Impacts

The U.S. is responsible for about 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions to date, and our emissions continue to increase.

Current Programs toAddress Climate Change

InternationalKyoto Protocol emission targets — went into ent into effect on February 16, 2005 without US participationeffect on February 16, 2005 without US participationCities for Climate Change Protection milestones

NationalResearchOther States – Climate Action Plans and inventories

CaliforniaEmission reduction targets - Signed June 1, 2005Goals: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

to 2000 levels by 2010to 1990 levels by 2020 to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050

California is the first state to regulate motor vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

Reductions phased in starting model year 2009Expected emissions reductions

By 2020: 18% GHG emissions, 6 tons/day of ozone forming pollution By 2030: 27% GHG emissions, 10 tons/day of ozone forming pollution

Current Programs toAddress Climate Change

Current Programs toAddress Climate Change

California Climate RegistryVoluntary effort with industries and utilities to inventory and track their GHG emissions

California Energy Commission and Public Utilities Commission

Energy efficiency and conservation measures, Renewable Portfolio Standard

Current Programs toAddress Climate Change

LocalAir districts

criteria pollutant reduction programs also reduce greenhouse gasesPublic outreach programs

energy efficiency, alternate transportationBay Area AQMD, San Luis Obispo APCD

Adopted programs to inventory and address greenhouse gas emissions

Santa Barbara County APCDPublic outreach, plans to develop database structure next year

Global Climate Change

Questions, Discussion, Recommendations