1.1.OBJECTIVES 6 - Waipa District Awamutu Hub... · 1.1.OBJECTIVES ..... 6 ... EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...
Transcript of 1.1.OBJECTIVES 6 - Waipa District Awamutu Hub... · 1.1.OBJECTIVES ..... 6 ... EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...
1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 5
1.1. OBJECTIVES ................................................................... 6
1.2. INFORMATION AND DATA SOURCES .................................. 7
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................ 8
3. TE AWAMUTU CORE ECONOMIC MARKET ................................ 10
4. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ................................................... 11
5. POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ............................ 12
6. RETAIL EXPENDITURE AND SUSTAINABLE GFA ....................... 13
6.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE .................................................... 15
6.2. SUSTAINABLE RETAIL GFA FORECASTS ........................... 16
7. CURRENT TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT RETAIL SUPPLY .............. 18
8. RETAIL SPENDING PATTERNS ............................................... 23
8.1. DESTINATION CORE CATCHMENT RETAIL SPENDING ......... 24
8.2. ORIGIN OF CORE CATCHMENT CENTRE RETAIL SPENDING . 26
8.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS ....................................................... 28
9. TE AWAMUTU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ..................................... 31
9.1. EMPLOYMENT RETENTION .............................................. 33
10.COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ................. 35
10.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ........................... 36
11.TE AWAMUTU HUB ............................................................... 38
APPENDIX : 1 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING .................................. 43
APPENDIX : 2 RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL .............................. 46
APPENDIX 3: BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS ................................. 52
TABLE 1: TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS ($M/PA) ............. 15
TABLE 2: TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECASTS (SQM) .................... 17
TABLE 3: TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT RETAIL AUDIT APRIL 2016 ..................................... 18
TABLE 4: TE AWAMUTU RETAIL STORE SIZE BREAKDOWN ............................................. 22
TABLE 5: TE AWAMUTU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY INDUSTRY......................................... 31
TABLE 6: WAIKATO REGION COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT RETENTION RATES .................. 33
TABLE 7: WAIPA COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2014-2043) ................. 35
TABLE 8: TE AWAMUTU COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2014-2043) ....... 35
TABLE 9: ADDITIONAL COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS IN TE AWAMUTU ................. 37
FIGURE 1: TE AWAMUTU’S INDICATIVE CORE MARKET .................................................. 10
FIGURE 2: TE AWAMUTU CORE MARKET POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS .... 12
FIGURE 3: PROPERTY ECONOMICS EXPENDITURE MODEL PROCESS ............................... 14
FIGURE 4: TE AWAMUTU RETAIL COMPOSITION MARCH 2016 ........................................ 20
FIGURE 5: DESTINATION SPENDING (EXCLUDING SUPERMARKETS) ............................... 24
FIGURE 6: DESTINATION OF SUPERMARKETS SPENDING .............................................. 25
FIGURE 7: ORIGIN SPENDING (EXCLUDING SUPERMARKETS) ........................................ 26
FIGURE 8: ORIGIN SPEND OF SUPERMARKETS ............................................................. 27
FIGURE 9: TE AWAMUTU NET POSITION BY SECTOR (EXCLUDING SUPERMARKETS) ......... 28
FIGURE 10: TE AWAMUTU NET POSITION OF THE SUPERMARKET SECTOR ....................... 29
FIGURE 11: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CATEGORY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD (2000-2014) ...................................................................................................................... 32
FIGURE 12: TE AWAMUTU HUB PRECINCT .................................................................... 39
24,371 25,263
26,292 27,197
28,039 28,766 29,300
9,592 10,056 10,638 11,194 11,651 11,953 12,175
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15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
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Population Households
Total Retail Spending
Household Spending
Business Spending
Physical Retail Stores
Internet Spending
Visitor Spending
TOTAL RETAIL SPEND 2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Food retailing $89 $92 $100 $108 $117 $126 $135
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories
retailing$15 $16 $17 $19 $20 $22 $24
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile
goods retailing$8 $8 $9 $10 $11 $11 $12
Electrical and electronic goods retailing $11 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing $8 $9 $10 $10 $11 $12 $13
Department stores $18 $18 $20 $22 $23 $25 $27
Recreational goods retailing $10 $10 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15
Other goods retailing $15 $16 $18 $19 $21 $23 $25
Food and beverage services $43 $44 $49 $53 $58 $63 $69
Total $218 $224 $246 $266 $287 $311 $334
SUSTAINABLE GFA 2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043
Food retailing 12,410 12,780 14,000 15,110 16,290
17,580
18,850
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories
retailing3,100 3,200 3,500 3,800 4,110
4,450
4,780
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile
goods retailing3,240 3,340 3,630 3,900 4,160
4,440
4,710
Electrical and electronic goods retailing 3,370 3,470 3,780 4,050 4,320
4,620
4,900
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 1,340 1,380 1,510 1,630 1,750
1,880
2,010
Department stores 7,240 7,450 8,150 8,790 9,450
10,180
10,880
Recreational goods retailing 2,900 2,990 3,280 3,540 3,830
4,140
4,460
Other goods retailing 3,800 3,920 4,330 4,710 5,130
5,600
6,070
Food and beverage services 7,670 7,900 8,720 9,510 10,360
11,320
12,290
Total 45,070 46,430 50,900 55,040 59,400 64,210 68,950
ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICAITONS Store # GFA # Store % GFA %
Supermarket retailing 3 11,770 2% 24%
Food retailing 15 2,730 10% 6%
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing 18 2,300 12% 6%
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods
retailing9 4,970 6% 10%
Electrical and electronic goods retailing 5 2,030 3% 4%
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 4 850 3% 2%
Department stores 1 5,200 1% 11%
Recreational goods retailing 5 1,080 3% 2%
Other goods retailing 28 6,730 19% 14%
Food and beverage services 52 8,640 35% 18%
Vacant 8 1,790 5% 4%
Total 148 48,470 100% 100%
TE A
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5%4%
35%
18%
19%
14%
3%
2%
11%
3%
2%
3%
4%
6%
10%
12%
6%
10%
6%
2%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Store % GFA %
Supermarket retailing
Food retailing
Clothing, footwear andpersonal accessories retailing
Furniture, floor coverings,houseware and textile goodsretailing
Electrical and electronic goodsretailing
Pharmaceutical and personalcare goods retailing
Department stores
Recreational goods retailing
Other goods retailing
Food and beverage services
Vacant
ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICAITONS 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total
Supermarket retailing 3 3 11,770 11,770
Food retailing 15 15 2,730 2,730
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing 17 1 18 1,800 900 2,700
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods
retailing6 2 1 9 1,790 1,380 1,800 4,970
Electrical and electronic goods retailing 3 2 5 610 1,420 2,030
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 4 4 850 850
Department stores 1 1 5,200 5,200
Recreational goods retailing 5 5 1,080 1,080
Other goods retailing 26 1 1 28 4,860 670 1,180 6,710
Food and beverage services 49 3 52 6,590 2,050 8,640
Vacant 8 8 1,790 1,790
Total 133 9 6 148 22,080 6,450 19,940 48,470
Total % 90% 6% 4% 100% 46% 13% 41% 100%
38%
6%
35%
4%
7%
3%5%
3%Te Awamutu
Balance of Waipa District
Hamilton City
Otorohanga District
Balance of Waikato
Auckland Region
Tauranga City
Balance of North Island
South Island
68%
7%
14%
3%2%
2%Te Awamutu
Balance of Waipa District
Hamilton City
Otorohanga District
Balance of Waikato
Auckland Region
Tauranga City
Balance of North Island
South Island
43%
17%
7%
11%
9%
3%7%
Te Awamutu
Balance of Waipa District
Hamilton City
Otorohanga District
Balance of Waikato
Auckland Region
Balance of North Island
South Island & International
50%
18%
6%
12%
7%
3% Te Awamutu
Balance of Waipa District
Hamilton City
Otorohanga District
Balance of Waikato
Auckland Region
Balance of North Island
South Island and International
25%
41%
37%
41%
38%
-75%
-59%
-63%
-59%
-62%
29%
54%
47%
58%
50%
53%
96%
85%
98%
87%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Clothing, footwear and softgoods
Department Stores/Pharmaceutical/Other Store-Based
Electrical/Furniture/Recreational Goods
Food and beverage services
Overall Net Position
RETENTION LEAKAGE INFLOW
68%-32% 69% 138%
-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150%
Supermarkets/Other Food and Liquor
RETENTION LEAKAGE INFLOW
Core Catchment 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 % Growth
Industrial 1,448 1,565 1,733 1,764 1,903 1,673 1,741 1,932 33%
Retail 1,004 1,001 1,006 1,068 1,129 1,075 1,233 1,254 25%
Commercial 858 927 1,543 1,313 1,283 1,329 1,364 1,426 66%
Other 2,181 2,338 2,397 2,501 2,564 2,688 2,812 2,799 28%
Total 5,491 5,830 6,680 6,645 6,879 6,765 7,150 7,411 35%
1,448
1,903 1,932
1,0041,129
1,254
858
1,283
1,426
2,181
2,564
2,799
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Industrial Retail Commercial Other
Waikato RegionEmployed Labour
Force
Employment
Count 2014
Retention
Rate %
Core Catchment 12,515 7,411 59%
Waipa District 25,039 16,657 67%
Waikato District 32,447 15,978 49%
South Waikato District 9,182 7,769 85%
Otorohanga District 4,643 3,533 76%
Matamata-Piako District 15,683 13,362 85%
Thames-Coromandel District 11,300 9,440 84%
Hamilton City 71,038 78,978 111%
Waitomo District 3,954 4,419 112%
Taupo District 16,419 14,602 89%
Hauraki District 7,516 5,801 77%
Waipa 2014 2023 2033 2043 % Growth
Commercial Sectors 2,925 3,334 3,627 4,681 60%
Te Awamutu 2014 2023 2033 2043 % Growth
Commercial Sectors 1,426 1,586 1,725 2,226 56%
Te Awamutu Commercial Land Requirements 2023 2033 2043 Total
Commercial Employment Growth 1,586 1,725 2,226 640
Net Commercial Land Requirements (sqm) 4,457 3,393 12,580 20,430
Core Catchment Waipa District Waikato Region
Population 24,371 49,917 434,359
Households 9,592 19,527 169,915
Person Per Dwelling Ratio 2.54 2.56 2.56
0–4 Years 7% 7% 7%
5–9 Years 7% 7% 7%
10–14 Years 7% 7% 7%
15–19 Years 7% 7% 7%
20–24 Years 5% 5% 7%
25–29 Years 5% 5% 6%
30–34 Years 5% 5% 6%
35–39 Years 6% 6% 6%
40–44 Years 7% 7% 7%
45–49 Years 7% 8% 7%
50–54 Years 7% 8% 7%
55–59 Years 7% 6% 6%
60–64 Years 6% 6% 5%
65 years and Over 16% 16% 15%
$20,000 or Less 9% 9% 12%
$20,001–$30,000 12% 11% 12%
$30,001–$50,000 19% 17% 19%
$50,001–$70,000 16% 15% 15%
$70,001–$100,000 21% 20% 19%
$100,001 or More 24% 28% 24%
$5,000 or Less 12% 12% 14%
$5,001–$10,000 4% 4% 5%
$10,001–$20,000 18% 17% 19%
$20,001–$30,000 15% 14% 14%
$30,001–$50,000 24% 23% 22%
$50,001 or More 27% 30% 25%
European Ethnic Groups 77% 82% 69%
Mäori Ethnic Group 17% 13% 19%
Pacific Peoples' Ethnic Groups 1% 1% 3%
Asian Ethnic Groups 2% 3% 6%
MELAA Ethnic Groups 0% 0% 1%
Other Ethnic Groups 2% 2% 2%
No Qualification 27% 23% 25%
Level 1 Certificate 16% 15% 15%
Level 2 Certificate 12% 12% 11%
Level 3 Certificate 7% 7% 9%
Level 4 Certificate 12% 11% 11%
Level 5 or Level 6 Diploma 9% 10% 9%
Bachelor Degree and Level 7 Qualifications 9% 11% 11%
Postgraduate and Honours Degrees 2% 2% 2%
Masters Degree 1% 2% 2%
Doctorate Degree 0% 1% 1%
Overseas Secondary School Qualification 4% 5% 5%
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Core Catchment Waipa District Waikato Region
Employed - Full Time 50% 51% 47%
Employed - Part Time 15% 15% 15%
Unemployed 4% 3% 5%
Not in Labour Force 32% 31% 33%
Managers 22% 23% 21%
Professionals 17% 19% 20%
Technicians and Trades Workers 13% 12% 12%
Community and Personal Service Workers 9% 9% 8%
Clerical and Administrative Workers 12% 12% 11%
Sales Workers 9% 9% 9%
Machinery Operators and Drivers 6% 5% 6%
Labourers 12% 12% 13%
Full Time 8% 9% 10%
Part Time 4% 4% 4%
Full-time and Part-time Study 0% 0% 0%
Not Studying 88% 88% 86%
Wages, Salary, Commissions, Bonuses etc 67% 69% 66%
Self-employment or Business 23% 26% 22%
Interest, Dividends, Rent, Other Invest. 26% 29% 24%
Payments from a Work Accident Insurer 2% 2% 2%
NZ Superannuation or Veterans Pension 23% 23% 22%
Other Super., Pensions, Annuities 3% 3% 3%
Unemployment Benefit 2% 2% 4%
Sickness Benefit 2% 2% 3%
Domestic Purposes Benefit 4% 4% 5%
Invalids Benefit 3% 3% 3%
Student Allowance 2% 2% 3%
Other Govt Benefits, Payments or Pension 6% 6% 6%
Other Sources of Income 2% 2% 2%
No Source of Income During That Time 0% 0% 0%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 21% 17% 14%
Mining 0% 0% 0%
Manufacturing 8% 8% 11%
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 1% 1% 1%
Construction 7% 8% 8%
Wholesale Trade 4% 5% 4%
Retail Trade 10% 9% 10%
Accommodation and Food Services 3% 4% 6%
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4% 3% 3%
Information Media and Telecommunications 1% 1% 1%
Financial and Insurance Services 2% 2% 2%
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 2% 2% 2%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 6% 7% 7%
Administrative and Support Services 2% 3% 3%
Public Administration and Safety 5% 4% 4%
Education and Training 8% 9% 8%
Health Care and Social Assistance 11% 10% 10%
Arts and Recreation Services 1% 2% 2%
Other Services 4% 4% 4%
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Core Catchment Waipa District Waikato Region
Single 23% 23% 23%
Couple 32% 33% 30%
Single Parent With Children 13% 11% 13%
Two Parent Family 29% 31% 28%
Other Multi-person 3% 3% 4%
1 Residents 23% 23% 23%
2 Residents 37% 37% 36%
3 Residents 15% 16% 16%
4 Residents 14% 15% 14%
5 Residents 7% 7% 7%
6 Residents 2% 2% 3%
7 Residents 1% 1% 1%
8 Plus Residents 0% 0% 1%
Dwelling Owned or Partly Owned 52% 52% 49%
Dwelling Not Owned and Not Held in a Family Trust 32% 30% 37%
Dwelling Held in a Family Trust 16% 18% 14%
0 Years 21% 21% 23%
1–4 Years 29% 30% 30%
5–9 Years 22% 23% 21%
10–14 Years 11% 11% 10%
15–29 Years 11% 11% 11%
30 Years or More 5% 4% 5%
One Bedroom 3% 3% 4%
Two Bedrooms 13% 14% 16%
Three Bedrooms 51% 47% 48%
Four Bedrooms 27% 29% 25%
Five Bedrooms 5% 6% 6%
Six Bedrooms 1% 1% 1%
Seven Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%
Eight or More Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%
Under $100 8% 7% 9%
$100–$149 10% 9% 8%
$150–$199 10% 8% 14%
$200–$249 18% 15% 14%
$250–$299 34% 26% 19%
$300–$349 18% 22% 18%
$350 and Over 2% 15% 18%
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