1182 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, … · 1184 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND...

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1182 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 2, NO. 7, JULY 2012 Stochastic Modeling-Based Variability Analysis of On-Chip Interconnects Dries Vande Ginste, Member, IEEE, Daniël De Zutter, Fellow, IEEE , Dirk Deschrijver, Member, IEEE, Tom Dhaene, Senior Member, IEEE, Paolo Manfredi, Student Member, IEEE, and Flavio Canavero, Fellow, IEEE Abstract—In this paper, a novel stochastic modeling strategy is constructed that allows assessment of the parameter variability effects induced by the manufacturing process of on-chip interconnects. The strategy adopts a three-step approach. First, a very accurate electromagnetic modeling technique yields the per unit length (p.u.l.) transmission line parameters of the on-chip interconnect structures. Second, parameterized macromodels of these p.u.l. parameters are constructed. Third, a stochastic Galerkin method is implemented to solve the pertinent stochastic telegrapher’s equations. The new methodology is illustrated with meaningful design examples, demonstrating its accuracy and efficiency. Improvements and advantages with respect to the state-of-the-art are clearly highlighted. Index Terms— Multiconductor transmission lines (MTLs), on-chip interconnects, stochastic Galerkin method (SGM), variability analysis. I. I NTRODUCTION T O MEET the stringent design specifications, expressed in terms of speed, bandwidth, noise margin, crosstalk, etc., on-chip interconnect designers have to be aware of high- frequency phenomena. Wave effects (start to) appear on-chip, skin-effect is present, and in contrast to on-board intercon- nects, the semiconductors induce the so-called slow-wave effect [1]. On top of that, given the further miniaturization of the interconnects, designers have to deal with the adverse effects caused by the manufacturing process, which introduces more and more randomness. For example, the position and width of the lines are no longer deterministically known, and also, the shape of the cross section is no longer rectangular. Due to over- or under-etching or electrolytic growth, the cross section has a random, trapezoidal shape [2]. So, designers are facing a difficult task, and to accomplish their goals they need to rely on modeling tools that accurately capture all high- frequency phenomena, and allow to study variability effects. Manuscript received December 13, 2011; revised March 12, 2012; accepted March 12, 2012. Date of publication May 10, 2012; date of current version June 28, 2012. Recommended for publication by Associate Editor E. P. Li upon evaluation of reviewers’ comments. D. Vande Ginste and D. De Zutter are with the Department of Information Technology, Electromagnetics Group, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium (e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]). D. Deschrijver and T. Dhaene are with the Department of Information Tech- nology, Surrogate Modeling Laboratory, Ghent University-IBBT, Ghent 9050, Belgium (e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]). P. Manfredi and F. Canavero are with the Dipartimento di Elettron- ica, EMC Group, Politecnico di Torino, Torino 10129, Italy (e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]). Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TCPMT.2012.2192274 In previous work, the influence of parameter variability effects on interconnects, and on-chip interconnects in particu- lar, has received some attention. In [3] and [4], the influence of the cross section was studied. Unfortunately, only a discrete set of sampling points could be considered in acceptable time. In [5], a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis of a single on- chip line was performed, clearly illustrating the importance of modeling tools that allow to study variability effects. A brute-force MC approach [6] is, however, not tractable when dealing with multiconductor transmission lines (MTLs) in a multidimensional parameter space, as will be shown here. Compared to MC, a better stochastic modeling formalism is described in [7] and [8] where the effect of parameter uncertainty on MTLs, i.e., cables and on-board interconnects, is studied. The adopted stochastic modeling method is based on a polynomial chaos expansion with Galerkin projection, also called the stochastic Galerkin method (SGM) [9]–[11]. On-chip interconnect design tools would also benefit a lot from such a powerful stochastic modeling technique. It is, however, not straightforward to immediately extend the techniques described in [7] and [8] to on-chip interconnects, as [7] and [8] rely on basic numerical or heuristic models for the per unit length (p.u.l.) transmission line parameters of the interconnect structures. In case of on-chip interconnects, and in particular in the presence of semiconductors, accurate models are not readily available. In this paper, a stochastic modeling strategy for on-chip interconnects is constructed, allowing rapid assessment of the parameter variability effects. This is made possible by a three- step approach. First, a 2-D electromagnetic modeling (EM) technique leads to a very accurate computation of the p.u.l. parameters of the on-chip MTLs. Second, using a combination of vector fitting (VF) [12]–[14] and barycentric Lagrange interpolation [15] multivariate parameterized macromodels of the p.u.l. parameters are constructed [16]. Third, thanks to this macromodeling step, an efficient SGM can be implemented. At this point, we want to underline the benefits and novelty of this strategy with respect to the state-of-the-art, and in particular with respect to [7] and [8]. The novelty is twofold: 1) for the first time in literature, a variability analysis of on-chip interconnects, described as MTLs, is presented. It is clear that this application is of great importance to the community, as these interconnects are greatly affected by their manufactur- ing process. Using the method presented in [7] and [8], as indicated above, only cable and on-board interconnects can be dealt with and 2) also in contrast to what is presented 2156–3950/$31.00 © 2012 IEEE

Transcript of 1182 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, … · 1184 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND...

Page 1: 1182 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, … · 1184 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 2, NO. 7, JULY 2012 The 2-D EM technique assumes a

1182 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 2, NO. 7, JULY 2012

Stochastic Modeling-Based Variability Analysisof On-Chip Interconnects

Dries Vande Ginste, Member, IEEE, Daniël De Zutter, Fellow, IEEE, Dirk Deschrijver, Member, IEEE,Tom Dhaene, Senior Member, IEEE, Paolo Manfredi, Student Member, IEEE,

and Flavio Canavero, Fellow, IEEE

Abstract— In this paper, a novel stochastic modeling strategy isconstructed that allows assessment of the parameter variabilityeffects induced by the manufacturing process of on-chipinterconnects. The strategy adopts a three-step approach.First, a very accurate electromagnetic modeling techniqueyields the per unit length (p.u.l.) transmission line parametersof the on-chip interconnect structures. Second, parameterizedmacromodels of these p.u.l. parameters are constructed. Third, astochastic Galerkin method is implemented to solve the pertinentstochastic telegrapher’s equations. The new methodology isillustrated with meaningful design examples, demonstrating itsaccuracy and efficiency. Improvements and advantages withrespect to the state-of-the-art are clearly highlighted.

Index Terms— Multiconductor transmission lines (MTLs),on-chip interconnects, stochastic Galerkin method (SGM),variability analysis.

I. INTRODUCTION

TO MEET the stringent design specifications, expressedin terms of speed, bandwidth, noise margin, crosstalk,

etc., on-chip interconnect designers have to be aware of high-frequency phenomena. Wave effects (start to) appear on-chip,skin-effect is present, and in contrast to on-board intercon-nects, the semiconductors induce the so-called slow-waveeffect [1]. On top of that, given the further miniaturizationof the interconnects, designers have to deal with the adverseeffects caused by the manufacturing process, which introducesmore and more randomness. For example, the position andwidth of the lines are no longer deterministically known, andalso, the shape of the cross section is no longer rectangular.Due to over- or under-etching or electrolytic growth, the crosssection has a random, trapezoidal shape [2]. So, designers arefacing a difficult task, and to accomplish their goals they needto rely on modeling tools that accurately capture all high-frequency phenomena, and allow to study variability effects.

Manuscript received December 13, 2011; revised March 12, 2012; acceptedMarch 12, 2012. Date of publication May 10, 2012; date of current versionJune 28, 2012. Recommended for publication by Associate Editor E. P. Liupon evaluation of reviewers’ comments.

D. Vande Ginste and D. De Zutter are with the Department of InformationTechnology, Electromagnetics Group, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium(e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]).

D. Deschrijver and T. Dhaene are with the Department of Information Tech-nology, Surrogate Modeling Laboratory, Ghent University-IBBT, Ghent 9050,Belgium (e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]).

P. Manfredi and F. Canavero are with the Dipartimento di Elettron-ica, EMC Group, Politecnico di Torino, Torino 10129, Italy (e-mail:[email protected]; [email protected]).

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TCPMT.2012.2192274

In previous work, the influence of parameter variabilityeffects on interconnects, and on-chip interconnects in particu-lar, has received some attention. In [3] and [4], the influenceof the cross section was studied. Unfortunately, only a discreteset of sampling points could be considered in acceptabletime. In [5], a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis of a single on-chip line was performed, clearly illustrating the importanceof modeling tools that allow to study variability effects.A brute-force MC approach [6] is, however, not tractable whendealing with multiconductor transmission lines (MTLs) in amultidimensional parameter space, as will be shown here.Compared to MC, a better stochastic modeling formalismis described in [7] and [8] where the effect of parameteruncertainty on MTLs, i.e., cables and on-board interconnects,is studied. The adopted stochastic modeling method is basedon a polynomial chaos expansion with Galerkin projection,also called the stochastic Galerkin method (SGM) [9]–[11].On-chip interconnect design tools would also benefit a lot fromsuch a powerful stochastic modeling technique. It is, however,not straightforward to immediately extend the techniquesdescribed in [7] and [8] to on-chip interconnects, as [7] and [8]rely on basic numerical or heuristic models for the per unitlength (p.u.l.) transmission line parameters of the interconnectstructures. In case of on-chip interconnects, and in particularin the presence of semiconductors, accurate models are notreadily available.

In this paper, a stochastic modeling strategy for on-chipinterconnects is constructed, allowing rapid assessment of theparameter variability effects. This is made possible by a three-step approach. First, a 2-D electromagnetic modeling (EM)technique leads to a very accurate computation of the p.u.l.parameters of the on-chip MTLs. Second, using a combinationof vector fitting (VF) [12]–[14] and barycentric Lagrangeinterpolation [15] multivariate parameterized macromodels ofthe p.u.l. parameters are constructed [16]. Third, thanks to thismacromodeling step, an efficient SGM can be implemented. Atthis point, we want to underline the benefits and novelty of thisstrategy with respect to the state-of-the-art, and in particularwith respect to [7] and [8]. The novelty is twofold: 1) forthe first time in literature, a variability analysis of on-chipinterconnects, described as MTLs, is presented. It is clear thatthis application is of great importance to the community, asthese interconnects are greatly affected by their manufactur-ing process. Using the method presented in [7] and [8], asindicated above, only cable and on-board interconnects canbe dealt with and 2) also in contrast to what is presented

2156–3950/$31.00 © 2012 IEEE

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VANDE GINSTE et al.: STOCHASTIC MODELING-BASED VARIABILITY ANALYSIS 1183

Fig. 1. Cross section of the IEM lines (not to scale). (a) Single IEM line.(b) Coupled IEM lines.

in [7] and [8], and again thanks to the construction of themacromodels, the PC expansion of the p.u.l. parameters doesnot introduce any additional error, leading to a stochasticmodeling technique with controllable accuracy, while beingvery efficient in terms of CPU time. Additionally, and for thefirst time, a compact formalism for the SGM for general MTLswith an arbitrary number of random stochastic parametersis presented in the appendix, allowing the readers to easilyimplement the method and to tailor it to their own needs(on-board, on-chip, etc).

This paper is organized as follows. First, in Section II sometypical state-of-the-art on-chip interconnect examples are pre-sented, for which a variability analysis is becoming imperative.Next, the stochastic modeling strategy is described in Sec-tion III for the case of a single line with one stochastic para-meter. An extension to general MTLs with more than one sto-chastic parameter is provided in Appendix A-I. In Section IV,a variability analysis is performed for the examples presentedin Section II, demonstrating excellent accuracy compared toa brute-force MC approach, and largely outperforming it interms of CPU time. Conclusions are summarized in Section V.

II. APPLICATION EXAMPLES

There exist a large number of on-chip interconnecttopologies, e.g., microstrip, co-planar waveguide, stripline.Here, we consider inverted embedded microstrip (IEM) lines,such as the ones presented in Fig. 1. The IEM gainsimportance in high-frequency integrated circuit-design [17],

because it combines the advantages of classic microstrips(well-known modeling, smaller on-chip area needed thanco-planar waveguide topology, etc.,) with the availability ofa nearly ideal (nonbroken) ground plate. Of course, thestochastic modeling strategy presented in Section III isapplicable to any on-chip interconnect topology.

The particular IEM topology of Fig. 1 comprises a dopedSilicon substrate with a thickness of 30 μm, a relative permit-tivity εr = 11.7, and a conductivity σ = 10 S/m on which aninsulator is placed. This insulator is 11.4-μm-thick SiO2 with arelative permittivity εr = 3.9, and a loss tangent tan δ = 0.001.On top of the SiO2, the top-plate ground is found. Thisground plate has a thickness of 3 μm and is aluminum with aconductivity σ = 3.77 · 107 S/m. The aluminum interconnectis embedded in the SiO2 at a height of 6.4 μm above thesemiconductor. Due to the etching or electrolytic growthprocess, the cross-section of the lines have a trapezoidal shape.This is indicated by the stochastic parameter β, i.e., the lengthof the bottom base of the trapezoid. Here, the height and thelength of the top side of the trapezoids are fixed to 2 μm.For the pair of coupled lines of Fig. 1, there is a secondstochastic parameter, i.e., ζ , the gap between the lines. Due tononperfect alignment, this gap is random and is considered tobe independent from the parameter β.

III. STOCHASTIC MODELING STRATEGY

A three-step approach is developed to accurately and effi-ciently predict the effects of parameter variability. For clarityand ease of annotation, this modeling strategy is describedbelow for the case of a single line (with a reference conductor)and with one stochastic parameter, such as the applicationexample shown in Fig. 1. A general framework for MTLswith an arbitrary number of stochastic parameters is given inAppendix A-I.

A. 2-D EM Modeling

Consider a uniform transmission line where the axis ofinvariance is z-axis. The transmission line is composed ofone signal conductor and a reference conductor, and onegeometrical parameter β is random. In the Laplace domain —using the complex variable s = j2π f , where f denotes thefrequency — the governing telegrapher’s equations, describingthis transmission line’s behavior, are

d

dzV (z, s, β) = −Z(s, β) I (z, s, β) (1)

d

dzI (z, s, β) = −Y (s, β) V (z, s, β) (2)

where V (z, s, β) and I (z, s, β), i.e., the voltage and currentalong the line, are functions of the frequency and of thedistance z along the lines. They also depend on the stochasticparameter β. The p.u.l. impedance and admittance parametersare denoted Z(s, β) and Y (s, β), respectively, and they bothdepend on the frequency and on the stochastic parameter. Tovery accurately compute these p.u.l. parameters, a 2-D EMmodeling technique is adopted. As this technique has alreadybeen abundantly detailed and validated in literature [18], [19],here we only repeat the gist of it.

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1184 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 2, NO. 7, JULY 2012

The 2-D EM technique assumes a quasi-TM behavior ofthe fields. Given the small cross section of on-chip inter-connects, this is a valid assumption. A careful definition ofthe circuit currents, taking semiconductors into account, leadsto a concise complex capacitance and a complex inductanceproblem formulation. By introducing a differential surfaceadmittance operator, these two problems are cast as boundaryintegral equations, which can be solved efficiently (no volumediscretized is needed) and with high precision (skin effect andslow-wave effect are accurately taken into account). Followingthis procedure, accurate p.u.l. parameter data for a set offrequency samples within a very broad band, ranging fromDC till 100 GHz, and for a set of samples of the parameter βis obtained. Numerical results for the p.u.l. parameters of thestructures presented in Section II can be found in [4].

B. Parameterized Macromodeling

Starting from this data, first, for V samples of thestochastic parameter β, denoted βv , v = 1, . . . , V , macromod-els Zumm(s, βv ), and Y umm(s, βv ) are constructed using VF[12]. These are univariate macromodels, i.e., they only dependon frequency. Second, as in [16], the univariate macromodelsare strung together by means of barycentric Lagrange inter-polation [15]. A proper choice of the barycentric weights wv ,v = 1, . . . , V , yields the following bivariate macromodels:

Zmm(s, β) =V∑

v=1

wv Zumm(s, βv )

V∏

k = 1k �= v

(β − βk) (3)

Y mm(s, β) =V∑

v=1

wvY umm(s, βv )

V∏

k = 1k �= v

(β − βk). (4)

These parameterized macromodels Zmm(s, β) and Y mm(s, β)are rational with respect to frequency and polynomial withrespect to the stochastic parameter β.

By making use of adaptive sampling schemes [20] in theconstruction of the macromodels, the number of calls to the 2-D EM solver described in Section III-A is limited, reducing theCPU time. The accuracy of the macromodels (3) and (4) withrespect to the original p.u.l. parameters Z(s, β) and Y (s, β)can be controlled by means of the number of poles in the VFstep and by the number of samples V . (Note that, here, thesame samples βv , v = 1, . . . , V , are used for the constructionof both Zmm and Y mm, but this is not strictly necessary.)Further computational details will be provided in Section IV.

It is important to already underline here that thanks tothis macromodeling step, and in contrast to [7] and [8], anaccurate and efficient stochastic modeling technique can beimplemented now for on-chip interconnects, for which noempirical models of the p.u.l. parameters exist. This is the-oretically described in the next sections and also numericallyvalidated in Section IV.

C. SGM

In this paper, to solve the stochastic telegrapher’s equations(1) and (2), an SGM is adopted, applying Galerkin projection

to a PC expansion of these differential equations [9], [10].Let us assume that the stochastic parameter β is a Gaussianrandom variable with a mean value μβ and a normalizedstandard deviation σβ . Introducing another Gaussian randomvariable ξ with zero mean and unit variance, β can be thenwritten as

β = μβ(1 + σβξ). (5)

This assumption is not a restriction, it merely leads to aHermite polynomial chaos (hPC) expansion (see further).Obviously, other PC expansions, for nonGaussian distributionsof β, can be constructed as well. An overview of the gener-alized PC is found in [11].

As a first step, an hPC expansion of the (macromodels ofthe) p.u.l. parameters is performed

Zmm(s, β) =K∑

k=0

Zk(s)φk(ξ) (6)

Y mm(s, β) =K∑

k=0

Yk(s)φk(ξ) (7)

where φk(ξ) indicates the stochastic Hermite polynomial ofdegree k [21]. These polynomials are orthogonal with respectto the weighting function

W (ξ) = 1√2π

e− 12 ξ2

(8)

as follows:< φk(ξ), φm(ξ) >= k! δkm (9)

where δkm is the Kronecker delta and where the inner product< f (ξ), g(ξ) > is defined as

< f (ξ), g(ξ) >=∫ +∞

−∞f (ξ) g(ξ) W (ξ) dξ. (10)

Hence, the expansion coefficients Zk(s) and Yk(s), k =0, . . . , K , in (6) and (7) are given by

Zk(s) = < Zmm(s, β), φk(ξ) > / k! (11)

Yk(s) = < Y mm(s, β), φk(ξ) > / k!. (12)

Second, the unknown voltage and current along the line areexpanded in a similar way

V (z, s, β) =K∑

k=0

Vk(z, s)φk(ξ) (13)

I (z, s, β) =K∑

k=0

Ik(z, s)φk(ξ). (14)

Third, the expansions (6), (7), (13), and (14) are substitutedinto the telegrapher’s equations (1) and (2)

d

dz

K∑

k=0

Vk(z, s)φk(ξ) = −K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

Zk(s)Il(z, s)φk(ξ)φl(ξ)

(15)

d

dz

K∑

k=0

Ik(z, s)φk(ξ) = −K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

Yk(s)Vl(z, s)φk(ξ)φl (ξ).

(16)

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VANDE GINSTE et al.: STOCHASTIC MODELING-BASED VARIABILITY ANALYSIS 1185

Fourth, a Galerkin projection is applied, meaning that (15)and (16) are weighted with the same set of K + 1 polynomi-als φm(ξ), m = 0, . . . , K , using the inner product (10). Takingthe orthogonality (9) into account, this leads to

∀m = 0, . . . , K

d

dzVm(z, s) = −

K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

αklm Zk(s)Il (z, s) (17)

d

dzIm(z, s) = −

K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

αklm Yk(s)Vl(z, s) (18)

with

αklm = < φk(ξ)φl(ξ), φm(ξ) > / m!. (19)

Together, (17) and (18) form a matrix ordinary differentialequation (ODE) in the 2(K + 1) unknown expansion coef-ficients Vk(z, s) and Ik(z, s), k = 0, . . . , K . Thanks to theSGM, the equation does no longer depend on the stochasticparameter β.

Fifth, this ODE is solved. Thereto, pertinent boundaryconditions (BCs) must be constructed. These BCs evolve fromthe terminations at the ends of the lines. In Appendix A-I, aframework for general BCs, also allowing stochastic variationof the terminations, is outlined in detail, together with thesolution technique of general ODEs for MTLs. Here, wemerely sketch the solution technique for the single line witha finite length L, the presence of a deterministic Théveningenerator — composed of a voltage source EN (s) and animpedance Z N (s) — at the near end of the line (z = 0),and a deterministic load impedance Z F (s) at the far end ofthe line (z = L), which leads to the following BCs:

V (0, s) = EN (s) − Z N (s) I (0, s) (20)

V (L, s) = Z F (s) I (L, s). (21)

Application of the hPC expansion with Galerkin weightingto (20) and (21) yields a new set of 2(K + 1) BCs, allowingto solve (17) and (18) for the 2(K + 1) unknown expansioncoefficients Vk(z, s) and Ik(z, s), k = 0, . . . , K . Substitutionof these coefficients into (13) and (14) again, finally yields thedesired voltage V (z, s, β) and current I (z, s, β) along the line,as a function of the stochastic parameter β. As demonstratedin Section IV, this allows to efficiently compute any desiredstochastic quantity or function, such as the stochastic momentsor the probability density function (PDF) of the voltage at theload, using standard analytical or numerical techniques [22].

D. Observations

Before numerically validating the proposed modeling strat-egy, outlined in Sections III-A–C, the following three interest-ing observations are put forward, which can be considered asclear improvements with respect to the state-of-the-art.

1) An accurate variability analysis for uniform transmis-sion lines, leveraging the SGM or any other stochasticmodeling technique, can only be carried out if the p.u.l.parameters as a function of the frequency and as afunction of the stochastic parameters are very accurately

known (see also remark 3) below). Whereas the tech-niques in [7] and [8] are based on simplified modelsfor the p.u.l. parameters of cables and on-board traces,here, the 2-D EM modeling technique of Section III-Ais employed, allowing such a variability analysis ofon-chip interconnects.

2) For the single line, the computation of the inner prod-ucts (11) and (12) is necessary to expand the scalarp.u.l. parameters (6) and (7). In general, the computationof the expansion coefficients of the p.u.l. parametersrequires the weighting of these p.u.l. parameters with theproper polynomials, necessitating the evaluation of mul-tidimensional integrals (A-8). Traditionally, numericalintegration schemes, employing Gauss–Hermite cuba-tures [21], are required. Here, however, thanks to themacromodeling step, p.u.l. parameters are obtained thatare analytically known as a function of frequency andas a function of the stochastic parameters [see (3), (4),and (A-3)]. This allows efficient, closed-form integra-tions, drastically reducing the setup time of the SGM.This is also numerically illustrated in Section IV.

3) In standard PC techniques, expansions such as (6)and (7), can be considered as a projection of thep.u.l. parameters onto a vector space of polynomials.In Section III-C, this vector space PK is spanned bythe set of chosen polynomials φk , k = 0, . . . , K , ofdegree at most K . Usually, such a projection introducesa loss of accuracy that is determined by the numberof terms K + 1 used in the truncated series. Here,however, the macromodels also exhibit a polynomialbehavior as a function of the stochastic parameter(s). Bychoosing the maximum degree V −1 in (3) and (4) equalto K , the macromodels already reside in PK , making (6)and (7) exact! Thus, the expansion can be considered asa change of basis, rather than a projection.

The above advantages come, of course, at a cost, namelythe construction of the macromodels. It is important to statethat rapid multivariate parameterized macromodeling tech-niques [23], [24] are being developed, also allowing a control-lable accuracy. Furthermore, these macromodels are computedoffline and stored (CPU times are provided in Section IV).Once available, they can also be employed for any othertype of PC expansion (other than Hermite PC), for sensitivityanalysis, and for optimization purposes.

IV. VARIABILITY ANALYSIS OF IEM LINES

In this section, the stochastic modeling strategy ofSection III is validated and its efficiency is demonstrated, usingthe application examples of Section II. All computations havebeen performed on a Dell Precision M4500 laptop with anIntel(R) Core(TM) i7 X940 CPU running at 2.13 GHz and8 GB of RAM.

A. Single IEM Line

We consider the single IEM line shown in Fig. 1. Themacromodels for the p.u.l. parameters are computed offline. Toobtain a relative error of 0.1%, thanks to the adaptive sampling

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Fig. 2. Bode plot of the magnitude of the transfer function H (s,β) forthe single IEM line. Full black line: mean μ|H | computed using the noveltechnique. Dashed black line: ±3σ|H |-variations computed using the noveltechnique. Gray lines: 100 samples from the MC run. Circles (◦): mean μ|H |computed using MC technique. Squares (�): ±3σ|H |-variations computedusing MC technique. (a) Response as a function of frequency (b) Detailof Fig. 2 around 7 GHz, clearly illustrating the effect of the stochasticparameter β.

TABLE I

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EFFICIENCY OF THE PROPOSED APPROACH

AND AN MC ANALYSIS FOR THE SINGLE IEM LINE

Technique CPU time [s] Speed-up factor

setup solve total

Novel approach 0.02 0.11 0.13 32

MC 4.13

technique, only 29 frequency samples are needed to constructthe univariate macromodels Zumm(s, βv ) and Y umm(s, βv ),v = 1, . . . , V , and this for V = 4 values of the stochasticparameter β. Hence, 29 × 4 = 116 calls to the 2-D EMsolver are required, each sample taking 1.16 s. The macro-model building time itself takes about 6 s. So, in total, toconstruct Zmm(s, β) and Y umm(s, β), 140 s are needed. Theresults of this macromodeling step were already shown in [5],where they were used to implement a tractable MC analysis.

A variability analysis is now performed. The IEM lineof Fig. 1 is given a finite length L = 1 mm. It isdriven by a Thévenin voltage source producing a sine wavewith frequency f , amplitude EN (s ≡ j2π f ), and with an

Fig. 3. PDF and CDF of the magnitude of the transfer function H (s, β)at 7 GHz for the single IEM line. Full black line: PDF computed usingthe novel technique. Dashed black line: CDF computed using the noveltechnique. Circles (◦): PDF computed using the MC technique. Squares (�):CDF computed using the MC technique.

internal impedance Z N = 1 �. It is terminated by a loadimpedance Z F = ( j 2π f CL + 1/RL)−1, with CL = 1 pFand RL = 1 k�. To analyze the possible adverse effects ofthe manufacturing process, the parameter β is assumed to bea Gaussian random variable with a mean value μβ = 2 μmand a normalized standard deviation σβ = 10%, and theSGM computation is performed. Also, as a reference, a brute-force MC analysis is carried out, using 50 000 β-samples.As a result, among others, the output voltage V (L, s, β) atthe load is computed as a function of the stochastic para-meter β. In Fig. 2, a bode plot of the magnitude of thetransfer function H (s, β) = V (L, s, β)/E(s) is shown, fora broad frequency band up to 100 GHz. Fig. 2 zooms in onthe resonance around 7 GHz. The full black line indicatesthe mean μ|H | of this output characteristic and the dashedlines show the ±3σ|H | deviations from this mean μ|H |, bothcomputed using the novel technique. The gray lines on Fig. 2correspond to 100 samples of the MC run, the circles (◦)and squares (�) indicate the mean μ|H | and the ±3σ|H |deviations, respectively, computed using the 50 000 samplesof the MC run. (For clarity, the circles and squares are notshown on Fig. 2.) It can be observed that the novel techniqueand the MC run are in perfect agreement, validating thepresented stochastic modeling strategy. The computation timesare indicated in Table I. The setup time refers to the timethat is needed in the SGM to construct the matrix ODE (17)and (18) and the corresponding BCs. The solution time denotesthe time needed to solve this equation for 250 frequencysamples. For the technique proposed in this paper, a significantspeed-up factor of 32 with respect to the MC approach isobserved. By means of a simple computation concerning thesetup time, the importance of the macromodeling step canbe clearly illustrated. Without the macromodels, the MC runwould require 250 × 50 000 calls to the 2-D EM solver, eachone requiring 1.16 s. Hence, computing all samples wouldtake approximately 168 days. Also the setup time for theSGM, now being only 0.02 s, would become unacceptablylong. Indeed, we need to compute the coefficients Zk(s) (11)and Yk(s) (12), k = 0, . . . , K . For 250 frequency samples andwith K = 3, this requires the computation of 2 × 250 × 4 =

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VANDE GINSTE et al.: STOCHASTIC MODELING-BASED VARIABILITY ANALYSIS 1187

Fig. 4. Bode plot of the magnitude of the transfer function H (s, β, ζ ) forthe coupled IEM lines. The same legend as in Fig. 2 is used. (a) Response asa function of frequency. (b) Detail of Fig. 4 around 7 GHz, clearly illustratingthe effect of the stochastic parameters β and ζ .

2000 integrals of the type (10). Without the macromodels,no analytical expressions are available and these integralsneed to be computed numerically, e.g., using a Gauss–Hermitecubature. When leveraging merely a five-points quadraturerule, this already requires 10 000 evaluations of the integrands,and hence, 10 000 calls to the 2-D EM solver, each call taking1.16 s. So, the setup time would become larger than threehours.

In Fig. 3, the PDF and the cumulative distribution func-tion (CDF) of |H (s, β)| for f = 7 GHz are shown. The fulland the dashed lines indicate the PDF and the CDF computedusing the novel technique, the circles (◦) and squares (�) arecomputed using the 50 000 samples from the MC run. Apartfrom the excellent agreement, it is also observed that suchresults can clearly quantify the influence of the stochasticparameter β, and hence the effect of the manufacturing processon the behavior of the interconnect.

B. Coupled IEM Lines

Let us now shift our attention to the pair of coupledIEM lines of Fig. 1. In a similar way, macromodels forthe p.u.l. parameters are constructed. These are now 2 × 2matrices Z(s, β, ζ ) and Y(s, β, ζ ), depending on the frequencyand on the two stochastic parameters β and ζ . First, univariaterational models are created using VF for a set of sampling

Fig. 5. Bode plot of the magnitude of the forward crosstalk F X (s, β, ζ ) forthe coupled IEM lines. The same legend as in Fig. 2 is used. (a) Response as afunction of frequency. (b) Blow-up of Fig. 4 around 7 GHz, clearly illustratingthe effect of the stochastic parameters β and ζ .

TABLE II

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EFFICIENCY OF THE PROPOSED APPROACH

AND A MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS FOR THE COUPLED IEM LINES

Technique CPU time [s] Speed-up factor

setup solve total

Novel approach 0.23 8.09 8.31 228

MC 1895.72

values of the two stochastic parameters. Second, the univariatemodels are strung together via barycentric Lagrange interpola-tion. The general expressions for the multivariate macromodelscan be found in Sections A and B of the appendix. Toobtain a relative error of 0.1%, the total time to constructthe macromodels is about 30 min. This comprises 684 callsto the EM solver (19 frequency samples, six samples for theparameter β and six samples for the parameter ζ ), each sampletaking 2.64 s, and about 15 s for the construction of themacromodels themselves.

Consider a source–line–load configuration where the lengthof the two IEM lines is L = 1 mm. The far end z = L ofeach line is terminated by a capacitive load Z F,1 = Z F,2 =( j 2π f CL + 1/RL)−1, with CL = 1 pF and RL = 1 k�.The first line is an active line. It is driven at the nearend z = 0 by a Thévenin voltage source producing a sinewave with frequency f , amplitude EN,1(s ≡ j2π f ), and

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1188 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 2, NO. 7, JULY 2012

Fig. 6. PDF and CDF of the magnitude of the transfer function H (s, β, ζ )at 7 GHz for the pair of coupled IEM lines. The same legend as in Fig. 3 isused.

with an internal impedance Z N,1 = 1 �. The second lineis the victim line. At its near end, it is terminated by alow impedance Z N,2 = 1 �. Again, a variability analysis isperformed, using the novel modeling strategy and an MC run.The stochastic parameters are considered to be independentGaussian random variables. The base β has a mean value μβ =2 μm and a normalized standard deviation σβ = 10%. Thegap ζ has a mean value μζ = 3 μm and a normalized standarddeviation σζ = 8%. 250 frequency samples are calculated,and for the MC run 50 000 (β, ζ )-samples are used. Thetwo output parameters that we observe here are the outputvoltages V1(L, s, β, ζ ) and V2(L, s, β, ζ ) at the loads of theactive and the victim line, respectively. We construct a transferfunction H (s, β, ζ ) = V1(L, s, β, ζ )/E(s) and a forwardcrosstalk function F X (s, β, ζ ) = V2(L, s, β, ζ )/E(s). Bodeplots of the magnitude of both functions are shown in Figs. 4and 5 up to 100 GHz, and magnifications of the resonancearound 7 GHz are shown in Figs. 4 and 5. As before, thefull black lines indicate the means μ|H | and μ|F X |, and thedashed lines show the ±3σ|H | and ±3σ|F X | deviations fromthese means, all computed using the novel approach. The graylines on the figures correspond to 100 samples of the MC run,the circles (◦) and squares (�) indicate the means and the ±3σ -deviations, respectively, computed using the 50 000 samplesof the MC run. From Figs. 4 and 5 an excellent agreementbetween the MC analysis and the novel technique is observed.Comparison of CPU times between the two techniques isshown in Table II. A substantial speed-up factor of 228 isobtained. A similar reasoning as given in Section IV-A wouldlead again to the conclusion that the setup time withoutleveraging the macromodels becomes unacceptably long. ThePDF and the CDF of the transfer function and of the forwardcrosstalk at 7 GHz are presented in Figs. 6 and 7. Apart fromthe excellent agreement, it is again noticed that such graphspresent valuable information for designers, allowing them torapidly assess the behavior of the interconnect.

Note that, in this paper, to make the hPC expansions of thep.u.l. parameters exact, as explained in Sections III and V, theso-called tensor product approach is adopted, making sure thatthe macromodels are elements of the pertinent vector spacespanned by the Hermite polynomials. Other approaches, suchas total degree, hyperbolic cross, and Smolyak, have also been

Fig. 7. PDF and CDF of the magnitude of the forward crosstalk F X (s, β, ζ )at 7 GHz for the pair of coupled IEM lines. The same legend as in Fig. 3 isused.

proposed [25], limiting the number of terms in the expansions,and hence reducing both the accuracy and the computationalcost. The trade-off between precision and efficiency followingsuch schemes in the case of on-chip interconnect modeling, isa topic for further investigation.

V. CONCLUSION

Designers of on-chip interconnects are facing a challengingtask. Due to the randomness introduced by the manufacturingprocess, position and widths of these lines were no longerdeterministically known and their cross sections have ran-dom trapezoidal shapes. Therefore, in this paper, a novelstochastic modeling strategy for the variability analysis ofon-chip interconnects was presented. The strategy consistsof a three-step approach. First, an accurate computation ofthe pertinent p.u.l. parameters using a powerful 2-D EMsolver was performed. Second, parameterized macromodels ofthese p.u.l. parameters were constructed. These macromodelsare rational as a function of frequency and polynomial asa function of the stochastic parameters. Third, a SGM wasadopted to solve the stochastic telegrapher’s equations. Thestrategy has been applied to the variability analysis of singleand coupled IEM lines. Compared to MC runs, the novelmethod shows excellent agreement and superior efficiency.The improvements and advantages with respect to the state-of-the-art in stochastic modeling of MTLs were clearly outlined,the most important being that, for the first time in literature,such modeling of on-chip interconnects is now made possible.

In this paper, no random variations along the z-axiswere taken into account. It would, however, be possibleto include surface roughness effects, adding to the lossesalong this z-direction, by incorporating a pertinent correctionfactor — such as the one proposed by Hammerstad andBekkadal [26] — in the p.u.l. resistance. Extension to sensitiv-ity and parameter variability studies of full 3-D structures, suchas coupled vias in package and board plane structures [27], iscurrently under investigation.

APPENDIX

In this appendix, we generalize the formulation ofSection III to MTLs with an arbitrary number of stochastic

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VANDE GINSTE et al.: STOCHASTIC MODELING-BASED VARIABILITY ANALYSIS 1189

parameters. A technique to solve the resulting matrix ODE isalso described.

A. Description of the Interconnect

Consider an MTL consisting of N coupled uniform signallines and a reference conductor. The axis of invariance is z-axis. There are B stochastic parameters β(b), b = 1, . . . , B ,that influence the MTL’s behavior as follows:

β(b) = μβ(b)(1 + σβ(b) ξb), b = 1, . . . , B (A-1)

where ξb, b = 1, . . . , B , are independent Gaussian randomvariables with zero mean and unit variance. The B-vectorcontaining all these variable is denoted ξ = [ξ1 · · · ξB ]T . Themean and normalized standard deviation of the parameters β(b)

are denoted μβ(b) and σβ(b) , respectively. In the Laplacedomain, using the complex variable s = j2π f , where fdenotes the frequency, the telegrapher’s equations, describingthe MTL’s behavior, are

d

dz

[V(z, s,β)I(z, s,β)

]

= −[

0 Z(s,β)

Y(s,β) 0

]·[

V(z, s,β)I(z, s,β)

](A-2)

where the N-vectors V = [V1 · · · VN ]T and I = [I1 · · · IN ]T

contain the voltages and currents along the N uniform-coupled lines. These voltages and currents are functions ofthe frequency and of the distance z along the lines. Theyalso depend on all stochastic parameters, as indicated by theset β = {β(b)}B

b=1. The N × N-matrices Z(s,β) and Y(s,β)are the p.u.l. impedance and admittance matrix, which can becomputed using the 2-D EM solver described in Section III-A.

B. Parameterized Macromodeling of the p.u.l. Parameters

Multivariate macromodels for Z(s,β) and Y(s,β) areconstructed. These models are rational along the dimensiondescribing frequency and polynomial in the B other dimen-sions that correspond to the B stochastic parameters. So, eachelement of the p.u.l. impedance matrix or admittance matrix,is modeled as follows:

Xij (s,β) ≈ Xmmi j (s,β)

=V (1)∑

v(1)=1

· · ·V (B)∑

v(B)=1

w(1)

v(1) · · · w(B)

v(B) Xummi j

(s, β(1)

v(1) , . . . , β(B)

v(B)

)

×V (1)∏

k(1) = 1

k(1) �= v(1)

(β(1) − β

(1)

k(1)

)· · ·

V (B)∏

k(B) = 1

k(B) �= v(B)

(β(B) − β

(B)

k(B)

)(A-3)

with i = 1, . . . , N , j = 1, . . . , N , and where Xij stands forZi j and Yi j . The univariate models Xumm

i j are rational functionsof s, and are obtained through VF in a set of samplingvalues {β(1)

v(1), . . . , β(B)

v(B)}, v(b) = 1, . . . , V (b), b = 1, . . . , B .Hence, for each stochastic parameter β(b), V (b) such samplingvalues are used and, thus,

∏Bb=1 V (b) univariate models are

required to construct the macromodels (A-3). Although itis not strictly required for the remainder of the formalism

described below, here, there is opted to use the same setof sampling values for all elements of the p.u.l. matrix X(X stands for Y and Z). The univariate macromodels arestrung together by means of barycentric Lagrange interpo-lation, yielding pertinent weight coefficients w

(b)

v(b) , v(b) =1, . . . , V (b), b = 1, . . . , B .

C. SGM

As we have considered a Gaussian distribution of thestochastic parameters, all elements of the macromodeled p.u.l.matrices are now expanded as follows:

Xmmi j (s,β) =

K∑

k=0

Xij,k (s)ϕk(ξ ) (A-4)

i = 1, . . . , N, j = 1, . . . , N

where ϕk(ξ) is the k-th element of a set of multivariate Her-mite polynomials. This set is constructed by the tensor productof the B sets of univariate Hermite polynomials {φl(ξb)}V (b)−1

l=0 ,b = 1, . . . , B . Hence, K = −1 + ∏B

b=1 V (b), and this setof K + 1 multivariate polynomials spans the B-dimensionalvector space PV of polynomials of degree at most V =max{V (b) − 1}B

b=1, in which all macromodels (A-3) reside.The elements in this set are orthogonal with respect to theinner product

< f (ξ ), g(ξ) >=∫

RBf (ξ ) g(ξ) W (ξ ) dξ (A-5)

with weighting function

W (ξ ) = 1B√

2πe− 1

2 ξT · ξ (A-6)

as follows:

< ϕk(ξ ), ϕm(ξ ) >= δkm < ϕm(ξ), ϕm(ξ) > (A-7)

where δkm is the Kronecker delta. Therefore, the expansioncoefficients in (A-4) are given by

Xij,k (s) = < Xij (s,β), ϕk(ξ) >

< ϕk(ξ), ϕk(ξ ) >. (A-8)

Note that the expansion (A-4) is not an approximation forthe macromodeled elements of the p.u.l. matrices, it is exact.Indeed, as stated above, given the polynomial interpolation(A-3), for a fixed frequency, the macromodel already residesin PV , making the expansion procedure merely a change ofbasis. So, the barycentric Lagrange interpolation is a conve-nient choice that yields certain advantages, as previously dis-cussed in Section III-D. However, this choice is not necessary.Other interpolation or approximation schemes could have beenadopted during the construction of the macromodels, makingthe expansion (A-4) a projection onto PV .

Similar as for the elements of the p.u.l. matrices, theunknown voltages and currents are now also projected onto

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1190 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPONENTS, PACKAGING AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 2, NO. 7, JULY 2012

the space PV

Vi (z, s,β) =K∑

k=0

Vi,k(z, s)ϕk(ξ ) (A-9)

Ii (z, s,β) =K∑

k=0

Ii,k (z, s)ϕk(ξ) (A-10)

i = 1, . . . , N.

Inserting (A-4), (A-9), and (A-10) into (A-2), yields thefollowing expressions for the 2N(K + 1) unknown expansioncoefficients Vi,k and Ii,k , i = 1, . . . , N , k = 0, . . . , K , for thevoltages and the currents along the MTL

d

dz

K∑

k=0

Vi,k(z, s)ϕk(ξ )

= −N∑

j=1

K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

Zi j,k(s)I j,l(z, s)ϕk(ξ )ϕl(ξ)

(A-11)

d

dz

K∑

k=0

Ii,k (z, s)ϕk(ξ)

= −N∑

j=1

K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

Yi j,k(s)Vj,l(z, s)ϕk(ξ )ϕl(ξ)

i = 1, . . . , N.

(A-12)

A Galerkin projection is now adopted by weighting (A-11)and (A-12) with the same set of Hermite polynomials, usingthe inner product (A-5)

d

dz

K∑

k=0

Vi,k(z, s) < ϕk(ξ ), ϕm(ξ ) >

= −N∑

j=1

K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

Zi j,k(s)I j,l(z, s) < ϕk(ξ )ϕl(ξ ), ϕm(ξ ) >

(A-13)

d

dz

K∑

k=0

Ii,k (z, s) < ϕk(ξ), ϕm(ξ) >

= −N∑

j=1

K∑

k=0

K∑

l=0

Yi j,k (s)Vj,l(z, s) < ϕk(ξ )ϕl(ξ ), ϕm(ξ ) >

i = 1, . . . , N, m = 0, . . . , K .

(A-14)

With (A-7) and introducing the notation

Zi j,ml (s) =K∑

k=0

Zi j,k(s)< ϕk(ξ)ϕl(ξ ), ϕm(ξ ) >

< ϕm(ξ ), ϕm(ξ ) >

(A-15)

Yi j,ml (s) =K∑

k=0

Yi j,k (s)< ϕk(ξ )ϕl(ξ ), ϕm(ξ)

< ϕm(ξ), ϕm(ξ ) >

i = 1, . . . , N, j = 1, . . . , N, k = 0, . . . , K , m = 0, . . . , K

(A-16)

(A-13) and (A-14) are recast as

d

dzVi,m (z, s) = −

N∑

j=1

K∑

l=0

Zi j,ml (s)I j,l(z, s) (A-17)

d

dzIi,m (z, s) = −

N∑

j=1

K∑

l=0

Yi j,ml (s)Vj,l(z, s) (A-18)

i = 1, . . . , N, m = 0, . . . , K .

The elements (A-15) and (A-16) are now organized into new

(N(K + 1) × N(K + 1))-matrices Z and Y, which can beconsidered as augmented p.u.l. matrices. By also properlyorganizing the unknown expansion coefficients in N(K + 1)-vectors V and I, an augmented version of the original teleg-rapher’s equations (A-2) is obtained, as follows:

d

dz

[V(z, s)I(z, s)

]= −

[0 Z(s)

Y(s) 0

]·[

V(z, s)I(z, s)

]. (A-19)

Note that, thanks to the SGM, these new equations do nolonger depend on the stochastic parameters β. As such,(A-19) can be considered as the pertinent telegrapher’s equa-tions for a deterministic MTL consisting of N(K + 1) sig-nal lines, allowing to solve them with classical methods asdescribed next.

D. BCs

Consider now a uniform MTL, as described in Section A–A,with a finite length L. The telegrapher’s equations can onlybe solved when proper BCs are imposed. These BCs aredetermined by the 2N terminations of the N lines, whichare here, for simplicity, Thévenin voltages sources. At thenear end of the lines, i.e., at z = 0, these Thévenin voltagesources comprise a voltage source EN,i (s,β) in series withan impedance Z N,i (s,β), i = 1, . . . , N . At the far end z = L,they comprise a voltage source EF,i (s,β) in series with animpedance Z F,i (s,β), i = 1, . . . , N . So, these terminationscan also be of stochastic nature, which is again indicated bytheir dependency on β .

Denoting the voltages and currents at the near end of thelines with the N-vectors VN (s,β) = V(z = 0, s,β) andIN (s,β) = I(z = 0, s,β), respectively, and similarly at thefar end, VF (s,β) = V(z = L, s,β) and IF (s,β) = I(z =L, s,β), it is readily seen that the BCs are

VN (s,β) = EN (s,β) − ZN (s,β) · IN (s,β) (A-20)

VF (s,β) = EF (s,β) + ZF (s,β) · IF (s,β) (A-21)

where the N-vectors EN and EF contain the voltage sourcesand where the matrices ZN and ZF are diagonal matrices,containing the impedances. Obviously, other terminations,yielding full matrices ZN and ZF , are equally possible.

The hPC expansion is now also applied to the BCs(A-20) and (A-21). The voltages and impedances are projectedonto PV

EX,i (s,β) =K∑

k=0

EX,i,k(s)ϕk(ξ ) (A-22)

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VANDE GINSTE et al.: STOCHASTIC MODELING-BASED VARIABILITY ANALYSIS 1191

Z X,i (s,β) =K∑

k=0

Z X,i,k(s)ϕk(ξ ) (A-23)

i = 1, . . . , N

where X now stands for N and F . Introducing (A-22) and(A-23) into (A-20) and (A-21) and applying Galerkin weight-ing again, yields the following augmented BCs:

VN (s) = EN (s) − ZN (s)IN (s) (A-24)

VF (s) = EF (s) + ZF (s)IF (s) (A-25)

where the N(K + 1)-vectors VX , IX , and EX (X is N and F)contain the expansion coefficients of the voltages and currentsalong the lines and the voltages sources, respectively. TheN(K + 1) × N(K + 1)-matrices ZX contain the expansioncoefficients of the impedances. Similar as for the augmentedtelegrapher’s equations (A-19), the augmented BCs (A-24)and (A-25) can be considered as the pertinent BCs of adeterministic MTL consisting of N(K + 1) signal lines.

E. Solution of the Augmented Telegrapher’s Equations andBCs

Given the above interpretations in terms of augmented equa-tions and BCs, the set of equations (A-19), (A-24), and (A-25),can now be solved as any other set of telegrapher’s equationswith BCs, pertaining to a deterministic system [28]. From(A-19), it is readily seen that

[VF

IF

]= T ·

[VN

IN

](A-26)

where the transfer matrix T is given by

T =[

TV V TV I

TI V TI I

]= e

−⎡

⎢⎣0 Z

Y 0

⎥⎦L. (A-27)

The BCs (A-24) and (A-25) are combined with (A-26) intoone matrix equation

⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣

TV V TV I −1 0

TI V TI I 0 −1

1 ZN 0 0

0 0 1 −ZF

⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦·

⎢⎢⎣

VN

IN

VF

IF

⎥⎥⎦ =

⎢⎢⎣

00

EN

EF

⎥⎥⎦ (A-28)

where 1 is the N(K + 1) × N(K + 1) identity matrix.From the matrix system (A-28), the unknown expansion

coefficients VN , IN , VF , and IF can be determined usingdirect or iterative schemes [29]. Substitution of these coef-ficients into (A-9) and (A-10) for z = 0 and z = Lfinally yields the voltages and currents at the 2N terminalsof the MTL as a function of frequency and as a functionof the stochastic parameters β. Using standard analytical ornumerical techniques [22], any desired stochastic quantity orfunction, such as moments or PDFs, can now be computed.

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[2] F.-L. Lin and R.-B. Wu, “Analysis of coplanar-waveguide discontinuitieswith finite-metallization thickness and nonrectangular edge profile,”IEEE Trans. Microw. Theory Tech., vol. 45, no. 12, pp. 2131–2137,Dec. 1997.

[3] T. Demeester, D. V. Ginste, and D. D. Zutter, “Accurate study of theelectromagnetic and circuit behavior of finite conducting wedges andinterconnects with arbitrary cross-sections,” in Proc. 19th IEEE Int.Conf. Elect. Perform. Electron. Packag. Syst., Austin, TX, Oct. 2010,pp. 133–136.

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Dries Vande Ginste (M’07) was born in 1977. Hereceived the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in electricalengineering from Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium,in 2000 and 2005, respectively.

He is currently an Assistant Professor with theDepartment of Information Technology, Electromag-netics Group, Ghent University. In June and July2004, he was a Visiting Scientist with the Depart-ment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Uni-versity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana.From September to November 2011, he was a Visit-

ing Professor with the Dipartimento di Elettronica, Electromagnetic Compati-bility Group, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy. His current research interestsinclude computational electromagnetics, electromagnetic compatibility, signaland power integrity, and antenna designs.

Dr. Vande Ginste received the International Union of Radio Science (URSI)Young Scientist Award from the URSI General Assembly and ScientificSymposium in 2011.

Daniël De Zutter (F’00) was born in 1953. Hereceived the M.Sc. degree in electrical engineeringand the Ph.D. degree from Ghent University, Ghent,Belgium, in 1976 and 1981, respectively. In 1984, hecompleted a thesis leading to a degree equivalent tothe French Aggrégation or the German Habilitation.

He is currently a Full Professor of electromag-netics. He has authored or co-authored more than180 international journal papers (cited in the Web ofScience) and 200 papers in conference proceedings.His current research interests include all aspects

of circuit and electromagnetic modeling of high-speed and high-frequencyinterconnections and packaging, electromagnetic compatibility, and numericalsolutions of Maxwell’s equations.

Dr. De Zutter was an Associate Editor for the IEEE MICROWAVE THEORYAND TECHNIQUES TRANSACTIONS. From 2004 to 2008, he served as theDean of the Faculty of Engineering of Ghent University and is now the Headof the Department of Information Technology.

Dirk Deschrijver (M’09) was born in Tielt, Bel-gium, on September 26, 1981. He received theMasters degree (licentiaat) and the Ph.D. degree incomputer science from the University of Antwerp,Antwerp, Belgium, in 2003 and 2007, respectively.

He was a Marie Curie Fellow with the Scien-tific Computing Group, Eindhoven University ofTechnology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, from Mayto October 2005. He is currently an FWO Post-Doctoral Research Fellow with the Department ofInformation Technology, Ghent University, Ghent,

Belgium. His current research interests include robust parametric macro-modeling, rational least-squares approximation, orthonormal rational function,system identification, and broadband macromodeling techniques.

Tom Dhaene (M’00–SM’05) received the Ph.D.degree in electrotechnical engineering from GhentUniversity, Ghent, Belgium, in 1993.

He was a Research Assistant with the Depart-ment of Information Technology, Ghent University,from 1989 to 1993, where his research focusedon different aspects of full-wave electromagneticcircuit modeling, transient simulation, and time-domain characterization of high-frequency and high-speed interconnections. He joined the EDA Com-pany Alphabit (now part of Agilent) in 1993. He

was one of the key developers of the planar EM simulator ADS Momentum,ADS Model Composer, and ADS Broadband SPICE. Since 2007, he hasbeen a Full Professor with the Department of Information Technology, GhentUniversity - Institute for Broadband Technology. He has authored or co-authored more than 250 peer-reviewed papers and abstracts in internationalconference proceedings, journals, and books. He holds five U.S. patents.

Paolo Manfredi (S’10) received the Laurea degreein electronic engineering from Politecnico di Torino,Torino, Italy, in 2009. Since January 2010, he hasbeen pursuing the Ph.D. degree from EMC Group.

His current research interests include models forsignal propagation and field coupling on intercon-nects, with a specific focus on stochastic models forthe inclusion of uncertainties.

Mr. Manfredi was selected for the IBM BestStudent Recognition Event in 2009 and won theBest Student Paper Award from the 19th IEEE

Conference on Electrical Performance of Electronic Packaging and Systemsin 2010. In 2011, he received an honorable mention from the IEEE MTT-SInternational Microwave Symposium in 2011 and was a Young ScientistAwardee from the XXX General Assembly and Scientific Symposium ofInternational Union of Radio Science in 2011.

Flavio G. Canavero (SM’99–F’07) received theLaurea degree in electronic engineering fromPolitecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy, in 1977, and thePh.D. degree from the Georgia Institute of Technol-ogy, Atlanta, in 1986.

He is currently a Professor of circuit theoryand electromagnetic compatibility with the Depart-ment of Electronics, Electromagnetic Compatibil-ity (EMC) Group, Politecnico di Torino. He isthe author or co-author of more than 200 paperspublished in international journals and conference

proceedings. His current research interests include the field of signal integrityand electromagnetic compatibility.

Prof. Canavero is an Associate Editor for the Letters Section of the IEEETRANSACTIONS ON ELECTROMAGNETIC COMPATIBILITY. For the samejournal, he has been the Editor-in-Chief from 2004 to 2006, and later he servedfor four years as the Technical Editor of the IEEE EMC NEWSLETTER. Hehas been the Chair of the International Union of Radio Science CommissionE (Noise and Interference). He is a member of the IEEE Fellow Committeeand the IEEE Press Editorial Board. He received the International BusinessMachines Corporation Faculty Award for the triennium from 2003 to 2005,the Intel Research Grant for 2008, and several Best Paper Awards andIEEE recognitions. He has been the Organizer of the Workshop on SignalPropagation on Interconnects from 2001 to 2003 and 2007. He is currently amember of the Editorial Boards of several scientific journals and the ScientificSteering Committees of several international conferences in the field of EMCand electrical performance of interconnects and packages.