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© D.W. DeLong 2017

The Impact of Changing Demographics:

A Framework for Action

by Dr. David DeLong Smart Workforce Strategies

IFEBP Institute for Apprenticeship, Training & Education Programs San Diego, CA January 16, 2017

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© D.W. DeLong 2017

Would You Like To:

§ Separate the myths and realities of how changing workforce demographics are really effecting the supply of skilled workers?

§ Learn how to recruit potential apprentices more effectively?

§  Identify more creative solutions to retain apprentices in your training programs?

§  Improve knowledge transfer & retention in a work environment no longer infused with family ties?

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Agenda

•  The “Big Picture” – How to Think Productively

About the Impacts of Changing Workforce Demographics

•  Six Critical Success Factors for improving the effectiveness of your training trust funds

•  What Will You Do Differently?

•  Where do you fit & what are your concerns?

© D.W. DeLong 2017

My Premise

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Training Trust Funds can enhance their impact on workforce development by taking six steps that will improve the value of your programs.

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•  Different regions in US & Canada, more rural/urban, trust funds vary in size, Canadians more flexibility

•  Roles – board members, apprenticeship/training directors, union business mgrs, business owners, trust fund administrators, school directors

•  Trustees & directors for training trust funds, most are multi-employer funds

•  Apprenticeships vary by trade; some do pre-apprenticeship programs; have school or partner

•  A few non-construction related industries

© D.W. DeLong 2017

Themes I Heard From You! How do we:

§ Get better at recruiting & retaining apprentices in a cyclical industry?

§  Improve the image of construction industry jobs?

§ Motivate workers to invest in their own training in a seller’s market?

§  Improve knowledge transfer in environment no longer infused with family ties?

§ How do we improve mentoring skills?

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More Themes I Heard From You! How do we:

§ Reduce attrition of apprentices & improve completion numbers?

§  Improve instructor quality?

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More Themes I Heard From You! How do we:

§  Institute diversity committees at more local levels?

§ Expand our focus to include veterans & ex-offenders?

§  Improve effective access to kids in high schools?

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6 Demographic Drivers Shaping Tomorrow’s Workforce

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Forces Creating Industry Skills Gaps

Fewer Gen-Xers in Pipeline

Increased Diversity in Workforce

Increased Skill Levels to Work With New Technologies

Millennials Learn Differently

An Aging Workforce

Lack of Millennial Interest

© D.W. DeLong 2017

Macro Trends Change Strategic Importance of Workforce Training

§ Aging demographics

§ Work more technical, complex

§ Recruiting/training process more difficult

§ Changing values

§ Competitors investing

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Percentage Change in U.S. Labor Force Participation by Age: Projected 2012-22

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In the United States, the percentage of workers 55+ is expected to increase by 29% between 2012 and 2022, whereas the percentage of workers ages 25-‐54 will grow by only 2 percent. The forecasted percentage of growth for workers age 65+ is much higher (74%) than for any other age category. Source: Horrigan, M.W. (2014, June). Labor force parNcipaNon: Trends and projecNons, a focus on older workers.

© D.W. DeLong 2017

Canada’s Working Age Population Drops 5% Between 2017-2027

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Canadian Population 65+ Exceeds Those Under Age 15

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Aging Workforce in Construction

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Graying Hard Hats

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Industries Struggling to Find Qualified Workers

§  Trucking

§  Health Care

§  Logistics

§  Tool & Die

§  Public utilities

§  Religious workers

§  Rail transportation

§  Construction 16

•  Financial services •  State & federal govt •  Sign industry •  Funeral industry •  Rural states – Maine •  Boiler manufacturers •  Hydraulics industry •  Manufacturing

distribution •  Accounting

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How Changing Workforce Demographics Impacts Industry Performance

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Problems

Training, Apprenticeship Programs

Results

© D.W. DeLong 2017

How Changing Workforce Demographics Impacts Industry Performance

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Problems

Training, Apprenticeship Programs

Results

-‐-‐Aging WF -‐-‐Fewer mid-‐careers -‐-‐Different values of Millennials -‐-‐More diverse workforce

-‐-‐Recrui<ng Next Gen appren<ces? -‐-‐Retaining apps in Boom/Bust Mkt? -‐-‐Using technology on job? -‐-‐Transfer/retain cri<cal knowledge?

-‐-‐Recrui<ng -‐-‐Pre-‐app programs -‐-‐Appren<ce programs -‐-‐Upgrade training -‐-‐Health & Safety training

-‐-‐Quality WF for contractor -‐-‐Great skills for members -‐-‐Q building for owner

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How Are You Responding to the Challenges of

Changing Demographics?

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#1. Adopt Strategic Perspective

on Closing Skills Gap

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Framework for Closing the Skills Gap

Skills Gap

Solutions

IT Applications to Capture, Share & Apply Knowledge

Knowledge Recovery Initiatives

Knowledge Transfer Practices

Human Resources Processes, Policies

& Practices

© Lost Knowledge: Confron1ng the Threat of an Aging Workforce by David DeLong, Oxford University Press.

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#2. Reinvent Talent-Related

Processes & Practices

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Human Resources Processes, Policies & Practices

Skills Gap

Solutions




HR PRACTICES INCLUDE:

•  Making “industry” more attractive – reinvent recruiting •  Building a “Retention Culture” •  Policies to retain older workers, e.g. phased retirement •  Programs to increase diversity, i.e., women, minorities

© D.W. DeLong 2017

How to Make Your Industry More Attractive?

§  It’s not the industry, it’s organizations & units whose image you change.

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How to Make Your Industry More Attractive

§ Reach out to those who influence kids – i.e., teachers, not guidance counselors.

§ Use younger workers to recruit

§ Show apprentices how they contribute to the Big Picture & help them emotionally connect to business.

§ Promote idea: a skilled trade is a great educational foundation

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Lessons Learned: Education & Talent Supply

§ Do skills expected in some entry level jobs pose unrealistic expectations on apprentices?

§ Have training centers been fast enough to respond to changing expectations of job market

§  “First gen” students need more than training access to succeed in job market. Solutions for creating a ready workforce lie outside the classroom!

§ You have no choice! You MUST figure out how to recruit & retain Millennials. They are the future of your industry!

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Increased Diversity Requires More Holis<c Support

Under Or Unemployed Appren<ces

Partner Unemployed, Low Skill

Transporta<on Needs

Children or Aging Parents

Limited Work Skills, Lacks Job Search Skills

Language Barriers

Personal Health Issues

Limited Financial Resources, Debt

Food & Shelter Needs

© D.W. DeLong 2017

“Year Up” Program Bridging the Opportunity Divide

§ 1 year, intensive training prog, low-income, adults 18-24

§ Provides hands-on skill development, paid corp internships, college credits, & support

§ 85% of 10,000 grads employed (avg $16 per hr) or in college full-time

§ Partners include BofA, Cisco, Capital One, Accenture, Google, Hyatt, 250 firms…

§ Grads prepare for professional careers in IT, accounting and customer service

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What Can You Do To Help Apprentices Succeed?

§ Lessons from Year Up, e.g. hire for motivation

§ Central Baptist Hospital hires retired nurse to coach nurses on development goals, careers

§ JVS – providing more than job training – texting new hires.

§  “Retention coaching” service for employers – OSU jersey

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Lessons From The Leading Edge: Managing Millennials Successfully

•  Oldest Millennials will be 40 in 5 years! Recognize segments of new generation: >2001, >2008, today

•  Given demographics, you have no choice but to work effectively with next generation

•  “Even if you crack the code of managing M’s, that doesn’t mean the problem goes away. Even if you’re doing it well, it’s still hard!”

•  “Some M’s just don’t appreciate the special care, mentoring & opportunities being provided. Some spend more time shopping for their next car than choosing their next opportunity. Still, you have to stay true to your care and feeding plan.”

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Staying Attractive: How to Leverage Older Workers?

§ Phased retirement options?

§ Retirement planning, e.g. First Horizon’s Retiree Services Relationship Mgr; Weyerhaeuser’s retirement planning seminars

§ Look for creative roles/options, e.g. retiring machinist becomes primarily mentor

§ Flexible/phased retirement – a program, not a policy

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Skills Gap

Solutions



& Practices


•  Skills databases •  New technologies, eg Total station •  Social media •  Video •  Online Learning •  Learning Mgt Systems

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#3: Recognize Technology Advances

Are Dramatically Changing Job Market & Skills Needed

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Technology Dramatically Transforming Employment

•  Advances in automation, robotics, big data, improved analytics transform or eliminate many jobs

Source: “Racing With & Against the Machine,” MacCrory et al., ICIS, Auckland 2014

“There’s never been a be>er 1me to be a worker with special skills or the right educa1on, because these people can use technology to create and capture value. However, there’s never been a worse 1me to be a worker with only ‘ordinary’ skills and abili1es to offer, because computers, robots, and other digital technologies are acquiring these skills and abili1es at an extraordinary rate.”

-‐-‐Brynjolfsson, E., and McAfee, A. The Second Machine Age, 2014

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Technology Dramatically Changing Employment (Cont.)

•  80% of U.S. population had net decrease in wealth in last 30 years.

•  For first time in history productivity/economic growth are disconnected from job growth.

•  Digital technologies improve rapidly but orgs & skills don’t keep pace, e.g. Total station

•  Now in a race between education & technology so worker skills can stay economically viable.

•  Some experts say 50% of jobs in 10 years don’t exist yet! Stay vigilant, e.g. drone technology

Source: “Race Against the Machine,” Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2011

© D.W. DeLong 2017

Technology Advances: Implications for Education & Talent Pool

§ How are technology advances effecting skill shortages for businesses in your region?

§ Anticipate skills needed for new jobs & evolving roles; plan transitions for those with obsolete skills, e.g., new role for upgrade training

§ Where can technology fill in skills gaps? Are there credentials for new techs?

§  It’s musical chairs for declining middle skill jobs!

§ Rural vs. urban opportunities vary greatly

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Skills Gap

Solutions




& Practices

•  Interviews/Debriefing •  “Skill Development Plan” •  Training – classroom, OJT •  Mentoring •  Communities of Practice •  …and more

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Knowledge Transfer: Bound the Problem

Getting Journeys

To Share Knowledge

Training Trustees Transferring

Knowledge About

New Technologies

Diversity Training

Adapted from: Process Visuals, A. Weiss, 2003

Evidence Your Transfer Risks Are Really Serious?

Retiring Journeys

Pre-Apprentice

Training

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#4. Clarify Specific Knowledge Retention Risks & Prioritize Focus

§ You’re not going to retain all valuable knowledge!

§ How do you set your priorities now?

§ Not all apprentices & journeys are created equal

§ Some can be replaced more easily or you have more depth in role

§ Whose knowledge is most critical to sustaining future performance in industry?

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Identifying Capabilities at Risk With Knowledge Silo Matrix (KSM)

§ Losing wrong people & capabilities creates serious quality & reputational risks

§ KSM: structured capabilities assessment tool to evaluate risks

§ Makes current skill base explicit, identifies emerging skills gaps & retention risks

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Knowledge Silo Matrix

Silos are areas of expertise such as: •  Tools •  Platforms •  Products •  Customers •  Processes •  Regulations •  History •  Physical Locs. •  Job Functions

© peermentoring.com, 2013

© D.W. DeLong 2017

KSM Allows Management to Ask:

§ Demographic profile of each member who is journey/mentor level?

§ How many skilled people needed in each silo in 2-5 yrs & how many do we have now?

§ Cost of training in silo X over time vs. in time crunch?

§ Enables frank discussion of acceptable vs. unacceptable risks of turnover & retirements

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#5. Invest in Mentoring

Capabilities

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Invest in Mentoring Capabilities to Accelerate Knowledge Transfer

§ Always clarify mentor’s role with initial meeting.

§ Maximize value of older workers: e.g.. Retiring 67-year-old focuses on teaching

§ Encourage mentors to coach mentees on communication preferences

§ Use 5-minute meeting plan to avoid overload

§ Best book on mentoring skills: Teach What You Know: A Practical Leader’s Guide to Knowledge Transfer by Steve Trautman

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The Five Minute Meeting Plan Agenda

1.  What will apprentice be able to DO after the meeting? Meeting’s purpose?

2.  Explain relationship to the job

3.  Outline main points – key is get them in order

4.  Note jargon

5.  Identify practice opportunities

6.  List other resources

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Source: Teach What You Know by Steve Trautman

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Solutions For The Softer Side of Knowledge Transfer

§  Conduct “stay interviews”…engage staff/apprentices in more in-depth career conversations

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•  Invest in mentoring skills

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More Solutions For The Soft Side of Knowledge Transfer

§  Millennials want to work with mobile/leading edge technologies, so promote opportunities!

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•  Sodexo Health Care – COO spent 90% of mgt forums telling stories of their impact on people’s lives

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Knowledge Recovery Programs Should Become Standard Practice

Knowledge Retention Strategy


& Practices


IT Applications to Capture, Store & Share Knowledge

•  Effectively Utilizing “Retirees” •  Automating‘Lost’ Capabilities •  Regenerating Lost Knowledge

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#6. Turn “Knowledge Recovery” From Problem to an Opportunity

§ Creative solutions come from alternative definitions of problem

§ Look for opportunities to rehire retirees, keep in touch

§ Some skill shortages will drive more technology solutions, e.g. automation, robotics (no choice!)

§ Necessity becomes the mother of invention…seek out creative solutions for reinventing capabilities.

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Investments in Training Your Workforce is Defined By Future Goals

Workforce’s Current Capabilities

Future Capabilities

“Planning” for the Future

Capabilities Needed

Envisioned Future Performance

Capability Gap?

Performance Goals drive training investments

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Sounds Depressing…But There is Hope

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Why Your Industry Will Conquer Changing Demographics Problem

§ These jobs & career opportunities are not going away. You’re in a growth industry!

§  Industry offers good, accessible jobs for apprentices who lack resources & networks to compete for more costly professional jobs.

§  It can be meaningful work that attracts millennials & mid-careers

§ Challenging careers that offer work/life balance

§ Other reasons??

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EXERCISE: Why Will Your Industry Meet Challenges of Changing Workforce?

•  Turn to colleague and answer: What gives you hope that our industry will meet the training challenges of an aging, changing workforce?

• Offer examples of initiatives or changes that have made a significant difference in addressing workforce development problems.

•  Share your ideas with others. Notice similarities & differences between them.

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Integrating the 3Rs

Retirements

Recruiting & Retaining

Apprentices

Retention/ Development of

Mid-Career Employees

Future Workforce & Leadership Capabilities

Is Your Organization Pursuing an Integrated Approach to Developing Tomorrow’s Workforce?

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Your Challenge: 6 Keys to Managing the Risks of Changing Demographics

§ Adopt a more comprehensive, strategic perspective on closing the skills gaps caused by an aging workforce

§ Reinvent recruiting and retention HR processes

§ Anticipate advances in technologies that transform training and work itself

§ Bound the problem! Specify & prioritize greatest knowledge transfer risks.

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Your Challenge: 6 Keys to Managing the Risks of Changing Demographics §  Invest in improving mentoring skills

§ Turn knowledge recovery from a problem to an opportunity!

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